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Directions: A. Study the two pictures given below carefully and write an essay of about 200 words. ...
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Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: A.Studythetwopicturesgivenbelowcarefu
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions:Studythetwo;picturesabovecarefullyandwr
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: A.Studythefollowinggraphcarefullyandw
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions:Studythetwopicturesabovecarefullyandwri
Directions: A.Studythetwopicturesgivenbelowcarefu
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: Studythetwopicturesabovecarefullyandw
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: Studythefollowingtwopicturescarefully
Directions: Studythetwo;picturesabovecarefullyand
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Inmychildren’slifetimesIbelievegorillaschimpanzeesandorangutanswillallbecomeextinctinthewild.Sothequestionwehavetoaskourselvesisthis:dowewantourchildrentoseeonlyinzooswhatusedtoexistintherealworld46Itisthegreatapesthatwilldisappearfirstbecausetherearesofewofthemleftandbecausethey’resovulnerabletochangesintheirhabitats. Manyofthethreatstotheseanimalsresultfromaglobaleconomynotlocalpressures.ThethreattotheorangutaninIndonesiaforexampleislargelyaresultofdeforestationandtheriskstoprimatesinAfricaresultfromthetimber-tradeandthedemandforbush-meat.47Thetwoworktogether:loggingopensuptheforestwhichmeansthatthebush-meatcanbegotoutfasttoKinshasaortoLondon. 48Ifwewanttoavoidthedisasterscenariopeopleindevelopedcountrieswillhavetotakeaglobalperspectiveandacceptresponsibilityforthedamageexportcropssuchastimbercoffeecutflowersorevengreenbeansdototheenvironment.Thechallengeistoavoidsimplyimposingwesternattitudesonlocalpeoples. Alreadytherearenotrulywildplacesleftintheworld.49Lookingatwildlifehasbecomethepreserveofthemiddleclassesoverthelasttwenty-oddyearsandaswildanimalsbecomeevenrarersomoretouristswanttoseethem.Buttourismaloneplainlycannotconservetheworld’sanimals;economicdevelopmentisthepriority. ForthefutureIsuspectthatffyoureallywanttodosomethingaboutwildlifeconservationyouwouldbebetteroffputtingyourmoneyintowomen’seducationratherthanjustintotheprotectionofflagshipspecies.50Womenoftenbearthedirectcostsofwildlifeconflict;theirknowledgeofhowtodealwithconflictandhowtocontroltheirownreproductivedestiniesmayyetdeterminethesurvivalofmanythreatenedspecies. Ifwewanttoavoidthedisasterscenariopeopleindevelopedcountrieswillhavetotakeaglobalperspectiveandacceptresponsibilityforthedamageexportcropssuchastimbercoffeecutflowersorevengreenbeansdototheenvironment.
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic—inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia—oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioniconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其贷币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow—ieabout 0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 18
Goodlooksthevideo-gamesindustryisdiscoveringwillgetyouonlysofar.Thegraphicsonamoderngamemayfaroutstripthepixellatedblobsofthe1980sbutthereismoretoagoodgamethaneyecandy.Photo-realisticgraphicsmakethelackofauthenticityofotheraspectsofgameplaymoreapparent.Itisnotenoughforgamecharacterstolookbetter—theirbehaviourmustalsobemoresophisticatedsayresearchersworkingattheinterfacebetweengamingandartificialintelligenceAI.Today’sgamesmaylookbetterbutthegameplayisbasicallythesameasitwasafewyearsagosaysMichaelMateasthefounderoftheExperimentalGameLabattheGeorgiaInstituteofTechnology.AIhesuggestsoffersanuntappedfrontierofnewpossibilities.Wearetoppingoutonthegraphicssowhat’sgoingtobethenextthingthatimprovesgameplayasksJohnLairddirectoroftheA1labattheUniversityofMichigan.ImprovedAlisabigpartoftheanswerhesays.Thoseintheindustryagree.Thehigh-definitiongraphicspossibleonnext-generationgamesconsolessuchasMicrosoft’sXbox360areraisingexpectatiousacrosstheboardsaysNeffYoungofElectronicArtstheworld’sbiggestgamespublisher.Youhavetohavehigh-resolutionmodelswhichrequireshigh-resolutionanimationhesayssonowIexpecthigh-resolutionbehaviour.RepresentativesfromindustryandacademiawillconvergeinMarinadelReyCalifornialaterthismonthforthesecondannualArtificialIntelligenceandInteractiveDigitalEntertainmentAIIDEconference.TheaimsaysDrLairdwhowillchairtheeventistoIncreasethetrafficofpeopleandideasbetweenthetwospheres.GameshavebeenveryimportanttoAIthroughtheyearshenotes.AlanTuringoneofthepioneersofcomputinginthe1940swroteasimplechess-playingprogrambeforetherewereanycomputerstoruniton;healsoproposedtheTuringtestaquestion-and-answergamethatisayardstickformachineintelligence.EvensoAIresearchandvideogamesexistedinseparateworldsuntilrecently.TheAltechniquesusedingameswereverysimplisticfromanacademicperspectivesaysDr.MateaswhileAlresearcherswereinturncluelessaboutmoderngames.Buthesaysbothsidesarelearningandarenowmuchcloser.Considerforexamplethesoftwarethatcontrolsanenemyinafirst-personshooterFPS—agameinwhichtheplayerviewstheworldalongthebarrelofagun.Thebehaviourofenemiesusedtobepre-scripted:waituntiltheplayerisnearbypopupfrombehindaboxfireweaponandthenrollandhidebehindanotherboxforexample.Butsomegamesnowusefarmoreadvancedplanningsystemsimportedfromacademia.Insteadofscriptsandhand-codedbehaviourtheAImonstersinanFPScanreasonfromfirstprinciplessaysDr.Mateas.Theycanforexampleworkoutwhethertheplayercanseethemornotseekoutcoverwheninjuredandsoon.Ratherthanjustmovingbetweenpredefinedspotsthecharactersinawargamecandynamicallyshiftdependingonwhat’shappeningsaysFionaSperryofElectronicArts.Iftheindustryisborrowingideasfromacademiatheoppositeisalsotrue.CommercialgamessuchasUnrealTournamentwhichcanbeeasilymodifiedorscriptedarebeingadoptedasresearchtoolsinuniversitiessaysDr.Laird.Suchtoolsprovideflexibleenvironmentsforexperimentsandalsomeanthatstudentsendupwithtransferableskills.ButthegreatestpotentialliesincombiningresearchwithgamedevelopmentarguesDr.Mateas.Onlybywrestlingwithrealcontentarethetechnicalproblemsrevealedandonlybywrestlingwithtechnologydoesitgiveyouinsightintowhatnewkindsofcontentarepossiblehesays.Accordingtothepassagegoodvideo-gamesusedtobejudgedintermsof
Goodlooksthevideo-gamesindustryisdiscoveringwillgetyouonlysofar.Thegraphicsonamoderngamemayfaroutstripthepixellatedblobsofthe1980sbutthereismoretoagoodgamethaneyecandy.Photo-realisticgraphicsmakethelackofauthenticityofotheraspectsofgameplaymoreapparent.Itisnotenoughforgamecharacterstolookbetter—theirbehaviourmustalsobemoresophisticatedsayresearchersworkingattheinterfacebetweengamingandartificialintelligenceAI.Today’sgamesmaylookbetterbutthegameplayisbasicallythesameasitwasafewyearsagosaysMichaelMateasthefounderoftheExperimentalGameLabattheGeorgiaInstituteofTechnology.AIhesuggestsoffersanuntappedfrontierofnewpossibilities.Wearetoppingoutonthegraphicssowhat’sgoingtobethenextthingthatimprovesgameplayasksJohnLairddirectoroftheA1labattheUniversityofMichigan.ImprovedAlisabigpartoftheanswerhesays.Thoseintheindustryagree.Thehigh-definitiongraphicspossibleonnext-generationgamesconsolessuchasMicrosoft’sXbox360areraisingexpectatiousacrosstheboardsaysNeffYoungofElectronicArtstheworld’sbiggestgamespublisher.Youhavetohavehigh-resolutionmodelswhichrequireshigh-resolutionanimationhesayssonowIexpecthigh-resolutionbehaviour.RepresentativesfromindustryandacademiawillconvergeinMarinadelReyCalifornialaterthismonthforthesecondannualArtificialIntelligenceandInteractiveDigitalEntertainmentAIIDEconference.TheaimsaysDrLairdwhowillchairtheeventistoIncreasethetrafficofpeopleandideasbetweenthetwospheres.GameshavebeenveryimportanttoAIthroughtheyearshenotes.AlanTuringoneofthepioneersofcomputinginthe1940swroteasimplechess-playingprogrambeforetherewereanycomputerstoruniton;healsoproposedtheTuringtestaquestion-and-answergamethatisayardstickformachineintelligence.EvensoAIresearchandvideogamesexistedinseparateworldsuntilrecently.TheAltechniquesusedingameswereverysimplisticfromanacademicperspectivesaysDr.MateaswhileAlresearcherswereinturncluelessaboutmoderngames.Buthesaysbothsidesarelearningandarenowmuchcloser.Considerforexamplethesoftwarethatcontrolsanenemyinafirst-personshooterFPS—agameinwhichtheplayerviewstheworldalongthebarrelofagun.Thebehaviourofenemiesusedtobepre-scripted:waituntiltheplayerisnearbypopupfrombehindaboxfireweaponandthenrollandhidebehindanotherboxforexample.Butsomegamesnowusefarmoreadvancedplanningsystemsimportedfromacademia.Insteadofscriptsandhand-codedbehaviourtheAImonstersinanFPScanreasonfromfirstprinciplessaysDr.Mateas.Theycanforexampleworkoutwhethertheplayercanseethemornotseekoutcoverwheninjuredandsoon.Ratherthanjustmovingbetweenpredefinedspotsthecharactersinawargamecandynamicallyshiftdependingonwhat’shappeningsaysFionaSperryofElectronicArts.Iftheindustryisborrowingideasfromacademiatheoppositeisalsotrue.CommercialgamessuchasUnrealTournamentwhichcanbeeasilymodifiedorscriptedarebeingadoptedasresearchtoolsinuniversitiessaysDr.Laird.Suchtoolsprovideflexibleenvironmentsforexperimentsandalsomeanthatstudentsendupwithtransferableskills.ButthegreatestpotentialliesincombiningresearchwithgamedevelopmentarguesDr.Mateas.Onlybywrestlingwithrealcontentarethetechnicalproblemsrevealedandonlybywrestlingwithtechnologydoesitgiveyouinsightintowhatnewkindsofcontentarepossiblehesays.ThemainpurposeoftheAIIDEconferenceisto
Therearemanydifferences.betweencommunicatinginwrittenandspokenwords—onetooneoronetomany.Becausespeakingisfacetofaceandpersonalitismuchmoredirectthanwriting..Handandbodygesturesfacialexpressionsandvocalvarietyhelpgreatlytosupportface-to-facecommunication.Itisalsoreinforcedbyinstantfeedbackfromlistenersintheformofsmilesfrownsapplausecatcallsclenchedfistsandsoon.Analertspeakerwhoissensitivetofeedbackcan"shiftgears"andadapttochangingcircumstances. 41.Thedifferencesbetweentalkingandwriting Writinghoweverdependssolelyonwordsandpunctuationtodeliverthemessage.Therearenogesturesandnovoiceandifthereisanyfeedbackittakestimetoreachthewriter. 42.Whylongsentencescanbeusedinwriting Effectivetalkingisaimedatpeople’smindsandheartsthroughtheirearsandearsprefershortdirectconversationalsentences. Therearethreestandardsthatapplyequallytotalkingandwriting—clarityaccuracyandappropriateness. 43.Clarity. Iftheaudiencedoesn’tunderstandthemessageinstantlythenthespeakerhastosomeextentfailed.Thuseverypossiblemeasuremustbetakentoensurethatallyourwordsandthoughtsareperfectlycleartotheaudience. 44.Accuracy. Asaconscientiousspeakeryoumustseetoitthatyourinformationisascurrentandasaccurateasresearchcanmakeit. 45.Appropriateness. Inadditiontobeingpreciseyourlanguageshouldalsobesuitabletothesubjectaudienceandoccasion. [A]Forinstanceaspeakercanvaryhis/herpitchortonetochangethemeaningexpressed.Awriterontheotherhandhastorelysolelyonthewordsandcontextorevenexplanationsinbracestoachievethat. [B]Goodtalkingiswordyrepetitiveandfarlessstructuredthanefficientwriting.Agoodspeechreproducedwordforwordonpaperusuallydoesnotreadwellbecauseitramblesandrepeatswordsandthoughts.Itisnotnearlyasdisciplinedandorganizedasgoodwriting. [C]Throughoutyourtalkwordsareyourprimemeansforhelpingyouraudienceunderstandyourmessage.Andtoharnesstheprofoundpowerofwordsyoushoulddevelopalifelonghabitofusingadictionaryandathesaurus.Ifyoudonotexploittheseresourcesyouwillfailtoachieveyourfullpotentialasaspeakerandconversationalist.Anotherdevicethatwillhelpyouachieveclarityinyourtalkisasummary.Ifyourtalkconsistsofthreewillresearchedmajorpointslitthosepointsinyourintroductionsoyouraudiencewillknowatoncewhatgroundyouwillcover.Discussthemindepthsummarizethemattheendofyourtalkandemphasizeanyconclusionshattheyleadto. [D]Forexampleaspeakerwho’saddressingaParent-TeacherAssociationshouldavoidthestatisticalandpsychologicaljargonofadvancededucationalresearchers.Bythesametokensheshouldnotindulgeinteenageslang.Anyspeakerworthhersaltwillanalyzeheraudiencefirstandadaptherlanguageaccordingly. [E]Thesurestwayforyoutodamageyourcredibilityistospewforthmisinformationoroutdatedinformation.HowmanytimeshaveyouseenastoryanameanimportantfactorachargeagainstsomeoneretractedinnewspapersUnfortunatelythedamagewasdonewhenthemisinformationfirstappearedinprint.Suchunwarrantedembarrassmentandmentalanguishcouldhavebeenavoidedffsomeonehadtakenthetimetorechecktheinformation.Ifyourtalkisonacurrentorcrucialtopicdoyourhomeworkandarmyourselfwithquotationsandsourcestofortifyyourfacts. [F]Longinvolvedsentencesareacceptableinwritingfortworeasons:1Theeyecanabsorbmanymorewordsinaninstantthantheearcanhear.2Ifareaderstumblesonamarathonsentenceshecanreaditagain.Notsowithspokenwords—onceutteredthey’regoneespeciallyinspeech.Ifalistenermissesasentencebothsheandthespeakerhavelostpartofthemessage;thereisnogoingbackexceptperhapsduringthequestion-and-answerperiod.Inaconversationofcoursethelistenercanaskthespeakertorepeat. 42
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic—inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia—oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioniconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其贷币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow—ieabout 0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 10
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic—inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia—oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioniconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其贷币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow—ieabout 0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 2
Addictionissuchaharmfulbehaviorinfactthatevolutionshouldhavelongagoweededitoutofthepopulation:ifit’shardtodrivesafelyundertheinfluenceimaginetryingtorunfromasaber-toothedtigerorcatchasquirrelforlunchAndyetsaysDr.NoraVolkowdirectorofNIDAandapioneerintheuseofimagingtounderstandaddictiontheuseofdrugshasbeenrecordedsincethebeginningofcivilization.Humansinmyviewwillalwayswanttoexperimentwiththingstomakethemfeelgood.That’sbecausedrugsofabuseco-opttheverybrainfunctionsthatallowedourdistantancestorstosurviveinahostileworld.Ourmindsareprogrammedtopayextraattentiontowhatneurologistscallsalience—thatisspecialrelevance.Threatsforexamplearehighlysalient.whichiswhyweinstinctivelytrytogetawayfromthem.Butsoarefoodandsexbecausetheyhelptheindividualandthespeciessurvive.Drugsofabusecapitalizeonthisready-madeprogramming.Whenexposedtodrugsourmemorysystemsrewardcircuitsdecision-makingskillsandconditioningkickin—salienceinoverdrive—tocreateanallconsumingpatternofuncontrollablecraving.SomepeoplehaveageneticpredispositiontoaddictionsaysVolkow.Butbecauseitinvolvesthesebasicbrainfunctionseveryonewillbecomeanaddictifsufficientlyexposedtodrugsoralcohol.Thatcangofornonchemicaladdictionsaswell.Behaviorsfromgamblingtoshoppingtosexmaystartoutashabitsbutslideintoaddictions.Sometimestheremightbeabehavior-specificrootoftheproblem.Volkow’sresearchgroupforexamplehasshownthatpathologicallyobesepeoplewhoarecompulsiveeatersexhibithyperactivityintheareasofthebrainthatprocessfoodstimuli—includingthemouthlipsandtongue.Forthemactivatingtheseregionsislikeopeningthefloodgatestothepleasurecenter.Almostanythingdeeplyenjoyablecanturnintoanaddictionthough.Ofcoursenoteveryonebecomesanaddict.That’sbecausewehaveothermoreanalyticalregionsthatcanevaluateconsequencesandoverridemerepleasureseeking.Brainimagingisshowingexactlyhowthathappens.PaulusforexamplelookedatdrugaddictsenrolledinaVAhospital’sintensivefour-weekrehabilitationprogram.Thosewhoweremorelikelytorelapseinthefirstyearaftercompletingtheprogramwerealsolessabletocompletetasksinvolvingcognitiveskillsandlessabletoadjusttonewrulesquickly.Thissuggestedthatthosepatientsmightalsobelessadeptatusinganalyticalareasofthebrainwhileperformingdecision-makingtasks.Sureenoughbrainscansshowedthattherewerereducedlevelsofactivationintheprefrontalcortexwhererationalthoughtcanoverrideimpulsivebehavior.It’simpossibletosayifthedrugsmighthavedamagedtheseabilitiesintherelapsers—aneffectratherthanacauseofthechemicalabuse--butthefactthatthecognitivedeficitexistedinonlysomeofthedruguserssuggeststhattherewassomethinginnatethatwasuniquetothem.TohissurprisePaulusfoundthat80%to90%ofthetimehecouldaccuratelypredictwhowouldrelapsewithinayearsimplybyexaminingthescans.Anotherareaoffocusforresearchersinvolvesthebrain’srewardsystempoweredlargelybytheneurotransmitterdopamine.Investigatorsarelookingspecificallyatthefamilyofdopaminereceptorsthatpopulatenervecellsandbindtothecompound.Thehopeisthatifyoucanreducetheeffectofthebrainchemicalthatcarriesthepleasurablesignalyoucanloosenthedrug’shold.Accordingtothetextanyonemaybeaddictedtodrugsifthey
Therearemanydifferences.betweencommunicatinginwrittenandspokenwords—onetooneoronetomany.Becausespeakingisfacetofaceandpersonalitismuchmoredirectthanwriting..Handandbodygesturesfacialexpressionsandvocalvarietyhelpgreatlytosupportface-to-facecommunication.Itisalsoreinforcedbyinstantfeedbackfromlistenersintheformofsmilesfrownsapplausecatcallsclenchedfistsandsoon.Analertspeakerwhoissensitivetofeedbackcan"shiftgears"andadapttochangingcircumstances. 41.Thedifferencesbetweentalkingandwriting Writinghoweverdependssolelyonwordsandpunctuationtodeliverthemessage.Therearenogesturesandnovoiceandifthereisanyfeedbackittakestimetoreachthewriter. 42.Whylongsentencescanbeusedinwriting Effectivetalkingisaimedatpeople’smindsandheartsthroughtheirearsandearsprefershortdirectconversationalsentences. Therearethreestandardsthatapplyequallytotalkingandwriting—clarityaccuracyandappropriateness. 43.Clarity. Iftheaudiencedoesn’tunderstandthemessageinstantlythenthespeakerhastosomeextentfailed.Thuseverypossiblemeasuremustbetakentoensurethatallyourwordsandthoughtsareperfectlycleartotheaudience. 44.Accuracy. Asaconscientiousspeakeryoumustseetoitthatyourinformationisascurrentandasaccurateasresearchcanmakeit. 45.Appropriateness. Inadditiontobeingpreciseyourlanguageshouldalsobesuitabletothesubjectaudienceandoccasion. [A]Forinstanceaspeakercanvaryhis/herpitchortonetochangethemeaningexpressed.Awriterontheotherhandhastorelysolelyonthewordsandcontextorevenexplanationsinbracestoachievethat. [B]Goodtalkingiswordyrepetitiveandfarlessstructuredthanefficientwriting.Agoodspeechreproducedwordforwordonpaperusuallydoesnotreadwellbecauseitramblesandrepeatswordsandthoughts.Itisnotnearlyasdisciplinedandorganizedasgoodwriting. [C]Throughoutyourtalkwordsareyourprimemeansforhelpingyouraudienceunderstandyourmessage.Andtoharnesstheprofoundpowerofwordsyoushoulddevelopalifelonghabitofusingadictionaryandathesaurus.Ifyoudonotexploittheseresourcesyouwillfailtoachieveyourfullpotentialasaspeakerandconversationalist.Anotherdevicethatwillhelpyouachieveclarityinyourtalkisasummary.Ifyourtalkconsistsofthreewillresearchedmajorpointslitthosepointsinyourintroductionsoyouraudiencewillknowatoncewhatgroundyouwillcover.Discussthemindepthsummarizethemattheendofyourtalkandemphasizeanyconclusionshattheyleadto. [D]Forexampleaspeakerwho’saddressingaParent-TeacherAssociationshouldavoidthestatisticalandpsychologicaljargonofadvancededucationalresearchers.Bythesametokensheshouldnotindulgeinteenageslang.Anyspeakerworthhersaltwillanalyzeheraudiencefirstandadaptherlanguageaccordingly. [E]Thesurestwayforyoutodamageyourcredibilityistospewforthmisinformationoroutdatedinformation.HowmanytimeshaveyouseenastoryanameanimportantfactorachargeagainstsomeoneretractedinnewspapersUnfortunatelythedamagewasdonewhenthemisinformationfirstappearedinprint.Suchunwarrantedembarrassmentandmentalanguishcouldhavebeenavoidedffsomeonehadtakenthetimetorechecktheinformation.Ifyourtalkisonacurrentorcrucialtopicdoyourhomeworkandarmyourselfwithquotationsandsourcestofortifyyourfacts. [F]Longinvolvedsentencesareacceptableinwritingfortworeasons:1Theeyecanabsorbmanymorewordsinaninstantthantheearcanhear.2Ifareaderstumblesonamarathonsentenceshecanreaditagain.Notsowithspokenwords—onceutteredthey’regoneespeciallyinspeech.Ifalistenermissesasentencebothsheandthespeakerhavelostpartofthemessage;thereisnogoingbackexceptperhapsduringthequestion-and-answerperiod.Inaconversationofcoursethelistenercanaskthespeakertorepeat. 44
Thebenefitsofsomeenvironmentallyfriendlypolicieswillnotbeapparentuntildecadesaftertheyhavebeenenacted.46ThatisoneofthemessagesofareportfromtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammewhichevenbythestandardsofglobalenvironmentassessmentsissoberingreading. 47GlobalEnvironmentalOutlook3GE03astudyofthelinksbetweenenvironmentalsocialanddevelopmentissuescontainsarangeofdreadfulbutfamiliarpredictionsabouttheimpactoffactorssuchasclimatechangeandindustrialdevelopment.Butthereportreleasedlastweekintherun-uptoAugust’sWorldSummitonSustainableDevelopmentinJohannesburgwasunusuallypessimisticabouttheprospectsforreversingthedamage. Thenewpredictionsarecontainedinoneoffourpossiblefuturesoutlinedinthereport.Theauthorsconsideredsituationsinwhichglobalpoliticsweredominatedbyconcernsovermarketsenvironmentalandsocialpoliciessecurityorsustainability.Thesewerebasedonattemptstocalculatetheeffectofthedifferentapproachesonpopulationlevelseconomicstechnologyandgovernance. Someofthesituationsproducedafamiliarpicture.48InaworlddominatedbyamarketmentalityforexamplelandandforestruinbecomesacriticalissueparticularlyinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean. Butthesustainabilitysituation’spredictionsshockedsomeoftheauthors."Thedelaysbetweenchanginghumanbehaviourandenvironmentalrecoverycameasthebiggestsurprisetotheregionalexperts"saysJanBakkesoftheNationalInstituteofPublicHealthandtheEnvironmentinBilthoventheNetherlandsoneofthereport’sauthors. 49Thereportfoundthatevenifenvironmentallyfriendlyapproacheswereadoptednowcarbondioxideconcentrationswouldcontinuetoriseuntil2050.Watershortageswouldcontinueandcoastalpollutionwouldincreaseslightly.Bakkesblamesdifficultyinchangingenergyandtransportinfrastructures. Originallyusedduringthe1950stosimulatefutureconflictssituationswererevivedinanimprovedformbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIPCCintheearly1990s."Byaddingsituationstoassessmentsyoucomeupwithacrediblestoryabouthowtheworldmightdevelopandcantranslatethatintoquantifiableformation."saysBertMetzalsoattheBilthoveninstituteandco-chairoftheIPCCworkinggrouponstrategiesfortacklingclimatechange. Morethan1000scientistscontributedtoGEO$whichdividestheworldintonolessthan17differentregions.50BycontrasttheIPCChasusedjustfourregionsinpreviousassessmentsalthoughthepanel’snewchairenergyeconomistRajendraPachaurihaspledgedtoimproveregionaldetailinfuturestrudies. 48
Directions: A.Studythecartoongivenbelowcarefullyandwriteanessayofabout200words. B.Youressayshouldcoveralltheinformationofthecartoonandmeetthefollowingrequirement: 1interpretthecartoon; 2causesofthephenomenon; 3yourmeasures.
Goodlooksthevideo-gamesindustryisdiscoveringwillgetyouonlysofar.Thegraphicsonamoderngamemayfaroutstripthepixellatedblobsofthe1980sbutthereismoretoagoodgamethaneyecandy.Photo-realisticgraphicsmakethelackofauthenticityofotheraspectsofgameplaymoreapparent.Itisnotenoughforgamecharacterstolookbetter—theirbehaviourmustalsobemoresophisticatedsayresearchersworkingattheinterfacebetweengamingandartificialintelligenceAI.Today’sgamesmaylookbetterbutthegameplayisbasicallythesameasitwasafewyearsagosaysMichaelMateasthefounderoftheExperimentalGameLabattheGeorgiaInstituteofTechnology.AIhesuggestsoffersanuntappedfrontierofnewpossibilities.Wearetoppingoutonthegraphicssowhat’sgoingtobethenextthingthatimprovesgameplayasksJohnLairddirectoroftheA1labattheUniversityofMichigan.ImprovedAlisabigpartoftheanswerhesays.Thoseintheindustryagree.Thehigh-definitiongraphicspossibleonnext-generationgamesconsolessuchasMicrosoft’sXbox360areraisingexpectatiousacrosstheboardsaysNeffYoungofElectronicArtstheworld’sbiggestgamespublisher.Youhavetohavehigh-resolutionmodelswhichrequireshigh-resolutionanimationhesayssonowIexpecthigh-resolutionbehaviour.RepresentativesfromindustryandacademiawillconvergeinMarinadelReyCalifornialaterthismonthforthesecondannualArtificialIntelligenceandInteractiveDigitalEntertainmentAIIDEconference.TheaimsaysDrLairdwhowillchairtheeventistoIncreasethetrafficofpeopleandideasbetweenthetwospheres.GameshavebeenveryimportanttoAIthroughtheyearshenotes.AlanTuringoneofthepioneersofcomputinginthe1940swroteasimplechess-playingprogrambeforetherewereanycomputerstoruniton;healsoproposedtheTuringtestaquestion-and-answergamethatisayardstickformachineintelligence.EvensoAIresearchandvideogamesexistedinseparateworldsuntilrecently.TheAltechniquesusedingameswereverysimplisticfromanacademicperspectivesaysDr.MateaswhileAlresearcherswereinturncluelessaboutmoderngames.Buthesaysbothsidesarelearningandarenowmuchcloser.Considerforexamplethesoftwarethatcontrolsanenemyinafirst-personshooterFPS—agameinwhichtheplayerviewstheworldalongthebarrelofagun.Thebehaviourofenemiesusedtobepre-scripted:waituntiltheplayerisnearbypopupfrombehindaboxfireweaponandthenrollandhidebehindanotherboxforexample.Butsomegamesnowusefarmoreadvancedplanningsystemsimportedfromacademia.Insteadofscriptsandhand-codedbehaviourtheAImonstersinanFPScanreasonfromfirstprinciplessaysDr.Mateas.Theycanforexampleworkoutwhethertheplayercanseethemornotseekoutcoverwheninjuredandsoon.Ratherthanjustmovingbetweenpredefinedspotsthecharactersinawargamecandynamicallyshiftdependingonwhat’shappeningsaysFionaSperryofElectronicArts.Iftheindustryisborrowingideasfromacademiatheoppositeisalsotrue.CommercialgamessuchasUnrealTournamentwhichcanbeeasilymodifiedorscriptedarebeingadoptedasresearchtoolsinuniversitiessaysDr.Laird.Suchtoolsprovideflexibleenvironmentsforexperimentsandalsomeanthatstudentsendupwithtransferableskills.ButthegreatestpotentialliesincombiningresearchwithgamedevelopmentarguesDr.Mateas.Onlybywrestlingwithrealcontentarethetechnicalproblemsrevealedandonlybywrestlingwithtechnologydoesitgiveyouinsightintowhatnewkindsofcontentarepossiblehesays.Whatcanbeinferredfromthepassage
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic—inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia—oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioniconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其贷币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow—ieabout 0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 8
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic—inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia—oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioniconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其贷币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow—ieabout 0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 20
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic—inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia—oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioniconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其贷币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow—ieabout 0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 12
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic—inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia—oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioniconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其贷币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow—ieabout 0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 6
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic—inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia—oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioniconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其贷币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow—ieabout 0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 4
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic—inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia—oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioniconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其贷币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow—ieabout 0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 16
Thebenefitsofsomeenvironmentallyfriendlypolicieswillnotbeapparentuntildecadesaftertheyhavebeenenacted.46ThatisoneofthemessagesofareportfromtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammewhichevenbythestandardsofglobalenvironmentassessmentsissoberingreading. 47GlobalEnvironmentalOutlook3GE03astudyofthelinksbetweenenvironmentalsocialanddevelopmentissuescontainsarangeofdreadfulbutfamiliarpredictionsabouttheimpactoffactorssuchasclimatechangeandindustrialdevelopment.Butthereportreleasedlastweekintherun-uptoAugust’sWorldSummitonSustainableDevelopmentinJohannesburgwasunusuallypessimisticabouttheprospectsforreversingthedamage. Thenewpredictionsarecontainedinoneoffourpossiblefuturesoutlinedinthereport.Theauthorsconsideredsituationsinwhichglobalpoliticsweredominatedbyconcernsovermarketsenvironmentalandsocialpoliciessecurityorsustainability.Thesewerebasedonattemptstocalculatetheeffectofthedifferentapproachesonpopulationlevelseconomicstechnologyandgovernance. Someofthesituationsproducedafamiliarpicture.48InaworlddominatedbyamarketmentalityforexamplelandandforestruinbecomesacriticalissueparticularlyinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean. Butthesustainabilitysituation’spredictionsshockedsomeoftheauthors."Thedelaysbetweenchanginghumanbehaviourandenvironmentalrecoverycameasthebiggestsurprisetotheregionalexperts"saysJanBakkesoftheNationalInstituteofPublicHealthandtheEnvironmentinBilthoventheNetherlandsoneofthereport’sauthors. 49Thereportfoundthatevenifenvironmentallyfriendlyapproacheswereadoptednowcarbondioxideconcentrationswouldcontinuetoriseuntil2050.Watershortageswouldcontinueandcoastalpollutionwouldincreaseslightly.Bakkesblamesdifficultyinchangingenergyandtransportinfrastructures. Originallyusedduringthe1950stosimulatefutureconflictssituationswererevivedinanimprovedformbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIPCCintheearly1990s."Byaddingsituationstoassessmentsyoucomeupwithacrediblestoryabouthowtheworldmightdevelopandcantranslatethatintoquantifiableformation."saysBertMetzalsoattheBilthoveninstituteandco-chairoftheIPCCworkinggrouponstrategiesfortacklingclimatechange. Morethan1000scientistscontributedtoGEO$whichdividestheworldintonolessthan17differentregions.50BycontrasttheIPCChasusedjustfourregionsinpreviousassessmentsalthoughthepanel’snewchairenergyeconomistRajendraPachaurihaspledgedtoimproveregionaldetailinfuturestrudies. 46
HalfwaythroughTheRebelSelltheauthorspausetomakefunoffree-rangechicken.Payingovertheoddstoensurethatdinnerwasnotinapreviouslifeconfinedtotinycagesisallwellandgood.Butafree-rangechickenisaboutasplausibleasasun-lovingearthworm:givenachoicechickensprefertocurlupinanicedarkcomerofthebarn.Onlyabout15%offree-rangechickensactuallyusethespaceavailabletothem.ThisisjustonecaseinwhichJosephHeathwhoteachesphilosophyattheUniversityofTorontoandAndrewPotterajournalistandresearcherbasedinMontrealfindfaultwithwell-meaningbutintheirviewultimatelynaiveconsumerswhohopetodistancethemselvesfromconsumerismbybuyingtheirshoesfromMotherJonesmagazineinsteadofNike.MrHeathandMrPotterarguethatthecountercultureinallitsattemptstobesubversivehasdonenothingmorethancreatenewsegmentsofthemarketandthusendsupfeedingtheverymonsterofconsumerismandconformityithopestodestroy.IntheprocesstheycoverMarxFreudtheexperimentsonobedienceofStanleyMilgramthefilmsPleasantvilleTheMatrixandAmericanBeauty15th-centurytablemannersNormanMailertheUnabomberreal-estatepricesincentralTorontomorethanoncethevoluntary-simplicitymovementandtheworld’sfunniestjoke.WhyrangesowidelyTheauthors’beefiswithaverysmallgroup:left-wingactivistswhoeschewsmallerpotentiallyusefulcampaignsinfavorofgrandstatementsaboutthehopelessnessofconsumercultureandthedangersofsellingout.Insteadofencouragingusefulactivitiessuchaspushingfornewlegislationwould-beleftistsarelefttoparticipateinunstructuredpointlessdemonstrationsagainstglobalizationorbuyfair-tradecoffeeandfree-rangechickenwhichonlysubstitutessnobberyforactivism.TwoauthorsofbooksthatrailedagainstbrandsNaomiKleinNoLogoandAlissaQuartBrandedcomeinforspecialderisionfordiagnosingtheproblemsofconsumerismbutrefusingtoofferpracticalsolutions.AnticipatingcriticismperhapsMessrsHeathandPottermakesuretoputforthafewoftheirownsolutionssuchasthe35-hourworkingweekandschooluniformstokeepteenagersfromcompetingwitheachothertowearever-more-expensiveclothes.Increasingconsumptiontheyarguethroughoutisnotimposeduponstupidworkersbyoverbearingcompaniesbutarisesasaresultofaculturalarmsrace:eachpersonbuysmoretokeephisstandardoflivinghighrelativetohisneighbors’Imposingsomerestrictionssuchasashorterworkingweekmightnotstopthearmsracebutitwouldatleastcurbitsmostoffensiveexcesses.Thisassumesonefindsexcessconsumptionoffensive;eventheauthorsdonotseementirelysure.Butonthewaytosuchmodestsuggestionstheauthorswanttocriticiseeveryaspectofthecounterculturefromitsdisdainforhomogenisationfranchisesandbrandstoitspoliticaloffshoots.Asaresultthebookwanders:chaptersonuniformsandonthesearchforcoolcouldhavebeencut.Moreovertheauthorsmakethemistakeofassumingthattheconsumerstheysympathisewith—theoneswhobuybrandsandliveintracthouses—knowenoughtoseparatethemselvesfromtheirpurchaseswhereasthefree-trade-coffeebuyersswallowthebrandmessageswholeasitwere.Stillitwouldbeashameifthebook’sramblingskeptitfromgettingread.Whenitfocusesonexplaininghowthecounterculturegrewoutofpost-WorldWarIIcritiquesofmodemsocietyTheRebelSellisalivelyreadwithenoughhumourtokeepthemoretheoreticalstretchesofitsargumentinteresting.Attheveryleastitputsitsfingeronatrend:therewillbeplentyoffuturecriticsofcapitalismliningupfortheirfree-rangechicken.Mr.HeathandMr.Potterseemtobelievethatcounterculture
Addictionissuchaharmfulbehaviorinfactthatevolutionshouldhavelongagoweededitoutofthepopulation:ifit’shardtodrivesafelyundertheinfluenceimaginetryingtorunfromasaber-toothedtigerorcatchasquirrelforlunchAndyetsaysDr.NoraVolkowdirectorofNIDAandapioneerintheuseofimagingtounderstandaddictiontheuseofdrugshasbeenrecordedsincethebeginningofcivilization.Humansinmyviewwillalwayswanttoexperimentwiththingstomakethemfeelgood.That’sbecausedrugsofabuseco-opttheverybrainfunctionsthatallowedourdistantancestorstosurviveinahostileworld.Ourmindsareprogrammedtopayextraattentiontowhatneurologistscallsalience—thatisspecialrelevance.Threatsforexamplearehighlysalient.whichiswhyweinstinctivelytrytogetawayfromthem.Butsoarefoodandsexbecausetheyhelptheindividualandthespeciessurvive.Drugsofabusecapitalizeonthisready-madeprogramming.Whenexposedtodrugsourmemorysystemsrewardcircuitsdecision-makingskillsandconditioningkickin—salienceinoverdrive—tocreateanallconsumingpatternofuncontrollablecraving.SomepeoplehaveageneticpredispositiontoaddictionsaysVolkow.Butbecauseitinvolvesthesebasicbrainfunctionseveryonewillbecomeanaddictifsufficientlyexposedtodrugsoralcohol.Thatcangofornonchemicaladdictionsaswell.Behaviorsfromgamblingtoshoppingtosexmaystartoutashabitsbutslideintoaddictions.Sometimestheremightbeabehavior-specificrootoftheproblem.Volkow’sresearchgroupforexamplehasshownthatpathologicallyobesepeoplewhoarecompulsiveeatersexhibithyperactivityintheareasofthebrainthatprocessfoodstimuli—includingthemouthlipsandtongue.Forthemactivatingtheseregionsislikeopeningthefloodgatestothepleasurecenter.Almostanythingdeeplyenjoyablecanturnintoanaddictionthough.Ofcoursenoteveryonebecomesanaddict.That’sbecausewehaveothermoreanalyticalregionsthatcanevaluateconsequencesandoverridemerepleasureseeking.Brainimagingisshowingexactlyhowthathappens.PaulusforexamplelookedatdrugaddictsenrolledinaVAhospital’sintensivefour-weekrehabilitationprogram.Thosewhoweremorelikelytorelapseinthefirstyearaftercompletingtheprogramwerealsolessabletocompletetasksinvolvingcognitiveskillsandlessabletoadjusttonewrulesquickly.Thissuggestedthatthosepatientsmightalsobelessadeptatusinganalyticalareasofthebrainwhileperformingdecision-makingtasks.Sureenoughbrainscansshowedthattherewerereducedlevelsofactivationintheprefrontalcortexwhererationalthoughtcanoverrideimpulsivebehavior.It’simpossibletosayifthedrugsmighthavedamagedtheseabilitiesintherelapsers—aneffectratherthanacauseofthechemicalabuse--butthefactthatthecognitivedeficitexistedinonlysomeofthedruguserssuggeststhattherewassomethinginnatethatwasuniquetothem.TohissurprisePaulusfoundthat80%to90%ofthetimehecouldaccuratelypredictwhowouldrelapsewithinayearsimplybyexaminingthescans.Anotherareaoffocusforresearchersinvolvesthebrain’srewardsystempoweredlargelybytheneurotransmitterdopamine.Investigatorsarelookingspecificallyatthefamilyofdopaminereceptorsthatpopulatenervecellsandbindtothecompound.Thehopeisthatifyoucanreducetheeffectofthebrainchemicalthatcarriesthepleasurablesignalyoucanloosenthedrug’shold.Pauluscouldaccuratelypredicttherelapsersbecause
Withaseriesofwell-timeddealsprivate-equityfirmsaregivingtraditionalmediamanagerscausetobeenviousTheWarnerMusictransactioninwhichEdgarBronfmanjuniorandthreeprivate-equityfirmspaidTimeWarner$2.6billionfortheunitin2003isalreadyjudgedafinancialtriumphforthebuyers.Theirsuccessislikelytodrawstillmoreprivate-equityintotheindustry.Andtheinvestmentsarelikelytogetbigger:individualprivateequityfundsaregrowing—a$10billionfundislikelythisyear—soeventhebiggestmediafirmscouldcomewithinrangeespeciallyffprivate-equityinvestorsclubtogetherSomeprivate-equityfirmshavelongputmoneyinmediaassetsbutmostlyreliablerelativelyobscurebusinesseswithstablecashflows.Nowsomeofthemareplacingbigstrategicbetsonthemorevolatilebitssuchasmusicandmovies.Andtheyarecurrentlyfarmoreconfidentthanthemediaoldguardthattheadvertisingcycleisabouttoturnsharplyupwards.Onereasonwhyprivate-equityismakingitspresencefeltinmediaisthatithasalotofmoneytoinvest.Otherindustriesarefeelingitsweighttoo.Butprivate-equity’sbuyingspree狂购乱买revealsalotaboutthemediabusinessinparticular.Mediaconglomerates联合公司lacktheconfidencetomakebigacquisitionsafterthelastwaveofdealswentwrong.ExecutivesatTimeWarnerforinstancewhichdisastrouslymergedwithAOLin2000wantedtobuyMGMamoviestudiobuttheboarditissaidweretoonervous.Insteadprivate-equityfirmscombinedwithSonyaconsumer-electronicsgianttobuyMGMlatelastyear.Private-equity’sinterestalsoreflectsthefactthatrevenuegrowthinmediabusinessessuchasbroadcastTVandradioisnowhardtocomeby.Theaverageannualgrowthratefor12categoriesofestablishedAmericanmediabusinessesin1998-2003excludingtheinternetwasjust3.4%saysVeronisSuhlerStevensonaninvestmentbank.Private-equityputsahighervalueonlow-growthhighcashflowassetsthanthepublicstockmarketsaysJonathanNelsonfounderofProvidenceEquityPartnersamedia-focusedprivate-equityfirm.Whatprivate-equitymennowbringtothemediabusinesstheyliketothinkisfinancialdisciplineplusanenthusiasticattitudetowardsnewtechnology.Old-stylemediamanagersclaimthenewcomersarestillindenialabouthowtechnologyistransformingtheirindustry.Traditionalmediamanagersgrudginglyagreethatsofarprivate-equityinvestorsaredoingverynicelyindeedfromtheirentertainmentdeals.ThebuyersofWarnerMusichavealreadygotbackmostoftheir$2.6billionfromthefarmbycuttingcostsissuingdebtandmakingspecialpayoutstoshareholders.Thisyearitsinvestorsareexpectedtolaunchaninitialpublicofferingwhichcouldbringthemhundredsofmillionsmore.Thewordvolatileline3paragraph2mostprobablymeans
Thebenefitsofsomeenvironmentallyfriendlypolicieswillnotbeapparentuntildecadesaftertheyhavebeenenacted.46ThatisoneofthemessagesofareportfromtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammewhichevenbythestandardsofglobalenvironmentassessmentsissoberingreading. 47GlobalEnvironmentalOutlook3GE03astudyofthelinksbetweenenvironmentalsocialanddevelopmentissuescontainsarangeofdreadfulbutfamiliarpredictionsabouttheimpactoffactorssuchasclimatechangeandindustrialdevelopment.Butthereportreleasedlastweekintherun-uptoAugust’sWorldSummitonSustainableDevelopmentinJohannesburgwasunusuallypessimisticabouttheprospectsforreversingthedamage. Thenewpredictionsarecontainedinoneoffourpossiblefuturesoutlinedinthereport.Theauthorsconsideredsituationsinwhichglobalpoliticsweredominatedbyconcernsovermarketsenvironmentalandsocialpoliciessecurityorsustainability.Thesewerebasedonattemptstocalculatetheeffectofthedifferentapproachesonpopulationlevelseconomicstechnologyandgovernance. Someofthesituationsproducedafamiliarpicture.48InaworlddominatedbyamarketmentalityforexamplelandandforestruinbecomesacriticalissueparticularlyinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean. Butthesustainabilitysituation’spredictionsshockedsomeoftheauthors."Thedelaysbetweenchanginghumanbehaviourandenvironmentalrecoverycameasthebiggestsurprisetotheregionalexperts"saysJanBakkesoftheNationalInstituteofPublicHealthandtheEnvironmentinBilthoventheNetherlandsoneofthereport’sauthors. 49Thereportfoundthatevenifenvironmentallyfriendlyapproacheswereadoptednowcarbondioxideconcentrationswouldcontinuetoriseuntil2050.Watershortageswouldcontinueandcoastalpollutionwouldincreaseslightly.Bakkesblamesdifficultyinchangingenergyandtransportinfrastructures. Originallyusedduringthe1950stosimulatefutureconflictssituationswererevivedinanimprovedformbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIPCCintheearly1990s."Byaddingsituationstoassessmentsyoucomeupwithacrediblestoryabouthowtheworldmightdevelopandcantranslatethatintoquantifiableformation."saysBertMetzalsoattheBilthoveninstituteandco-chairoftheIPCCworkinggrouponstrategiesfortacklingclimatechange. Morethan1000scientistscontributedtoGEO$whichdividestheworldintonolessthan17differentregions.50BycontrasttheIPCChasusedjustfourregionsinpreviousassessmentsalthoughthepanel’snewchairenergyeconomistRajendraPachaurihaspledgedtoimproveregionaldetailinfuturestrudies. 50
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic—inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia—oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioniconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其贷币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow—ieabout 0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 14
EgyptianwinehasanextensivehistorywithinthehistoryofEgyptiancivilization.Grapeswerenot1tothelandscapeofEgyptratherthevinesthemselvesare2tohavebeenimportedfromthePhoenicians3theactualoriginsremainin4.Whatisknownisthat5thethirdmillenniumBCEgyptiankingsofthefirst6hadextensivewinecellarsandwinewasusedextensivelyinthetempleceremonies.Themain7ofwineinEgypttookplacebetweenthekingnoblesandthepriestsintempleceremoniesandis8bynumerouspaintedrelief’sandother9evidence.ThevineyardsofancientEgyptwerequitedifferentfromthemodernmethodsofwinemakingtoday.10viticultureorwinemakingceasedto11anexclusivelyceremonialpurposetheEgyptiansbegantoexperimentwithsimplestructuresfortheirvinestotrainon12foundawaytotraintheirvinessotheywereeasylow13bushesandfoundwaysforthesoilto14moremoistureforthevines.EgyptianwinemakingexperimentsincludedReuseofdifferentwinepressesaddingheattothemustthegrapejuicereadyforfermentation15makethewinesweetanddifferencesinvattypesandmaterials.The16finishedproductofwinewaspouredthroughaclothfalterandthenintoearthenwarejars17theywouldbesealedwithnaturaltarandleftto18.TheEgyptianskeptaccuraterecordsoftheirvintagesand19oftheirwineseachjarofwinewasclearly20withit’sownvintageandquality. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.2
Inmychildren’slifetimesIbelievegorillaschimpanzeesandorangutanswillallbecomeextinctinthewild.Sothequestionwehavetoaskourselvesisthis:dowewantourchildrentoseeonlyinzooswhatusedtoexistintherealworld46Itisthegreatapesthatwilldisappearfirstbecausetherearesofewofthemleftandbecausethey’resovulnerabletochangesintheirhabitats. Manyofthethreatstotheseanimalsresultfromaglobaleconomynotlocalpressures.ThethreattotheorangutaninIndonesiaforexampleislargelyaresultofdeforestationandtheriskstoprimatesinAfricaresultfromthetimber-tradeandthedemandforbush-meat.47Thetwoworktogether:loggingopensuptheforestwhichmeansthatthebush-meatcanbegotoutfasttoKinshasaortoLondon. 48Ifwewanttoavoidthedisasterscenariopeopleindevelopedcountrieswillhavetotakeaglobalperspectiveandacceptresponsibilityforthedamageexportcropssuchastimbercoffeecutflowersorevengreenbeansdototheenvironment.Thechallengeistoavoidsimplyimposingwesternattitudesonlocalpeoples. Alreadytherearenotrulywildplacesleftintheworld.49Lookingatwildlifehasbecomethepreserveofthemiddleclassesoverthelasttwenty-oddyearsandaswildanimalsbecomeevenrarersomoretouristswanttoseethem.Buttourismaloneplainlycannotconservetheworld’sanimals;economicdevelopmentisthepriority. ForthefutureIsuspectthatffyoureallywanttodosomethingaboutwildlifeconservationyouwouldbebetteroffputtingyourmoneyintowomen’seducationratherthanjustintotheprotectionofflagshipspecies.50Womenoftenbearthedirectcostsofwildlifeconflict;theirknowledgeofhowtodealwithconflictandhowtocontroltheirownreproductivedestiniesmayyetdeterminethesurvivalofmanythreatenedspecies. Womenoftenbearthedirectcostsofwildlifeconflict;theirknowledgeofhowtodealwithconflictandhowtocontroltheirownreproductivedestiniesmayyetdeterminethesurvivalofmanythreatenedspecies.
A.Title:ShouldThereBeCompulsoryRetirementAge B..TimeLimit:40minutes C.Wordlimit:about200words D.YourcompositionshouldbebasedontheOUTLINEbelow: 1presentstate; 2yourexplanations; 3yoursuggestions.
Withaseriesofwell-timeddealsprivate-equityfirmsaregivingtraditionalmediamanagerscausetobeenviousTheWarnerMusictransactioninwhichEdgarBronfmanjuniorandthreeprivate-equityfirmspaidTimeWarner$2.6billionfortheunitin2003isalreadyjudgedafinancialtriumphforthebuyers.Theirsuccessislikelytodrawstillmoreprivate-equityintotheindustry.Andtheinvestmentsarelikelytogetbigger:individualprivateequityfundsaregrowing—a$10billionfundislikelythisyear—soeventhebiggestmediafirmscouldcomewithinrangeespeciallyffprivate-equityinvestorsclubtogetherSomeprivate-equityfirmshavelongputmoneyinmediaassetsbutmostlyreliablerelativelyobscurebusinesseswithstablecashflows.Nowsomeofthemareplacingbigstrategicbetsonthemorevolatilebitssuchasmusicandmovies.Andtheyarecurrentlyfarmoreconfidentthanthemediaoldguardthattheadvertisingcycleisabouttoturnsharplyupwards.Onereasonwhyprivate-equityismakingitspresencefeltinmediaisthatithasalotofmoneytoinvest.Otherindustriesarefeelingitsweighttoo.Butprivate-equity’sbuyingspree狂购乱买revealsalotaboutthemediabusinessinparticular.Mediaconglomerates联合公司lacktheconfidencetomakebigacquisitionsafterthelastwaveofdealswentwrong.ExecutivesatTimeWarnerforinstancewhichdisastrouslymergedwithAOLin2000wantedtobuyMGMamoviestudiobuttheboarditissaidweretoonervous.Insteadprivate-equityfirmscombinedwithSonyaconsumer-electronicsgianttobuyMGMlatelastyear.Private-equity’sinterestalsoreflectsthefactthatrevenuegrowthinmediabusinessessuchasbroadcastTVandradioisnowhardtocomeby.Theaverageannualgrowthratefor12categoriesofestablishedAmericanmediabusinessesin1998-2003excludingtheinternetwasjust3.4%saysVeronisSuhlerStevensonaninvestmentbank.Private-equityputsahighervalueonlow-growthhighcashflowassetsthanthepublicstockmarketsaysJonathanNelsonfounderofProvidenceEquityPartnersamedia-focusedprivate-equityfirm.Whatprivate-equitymennowbringtothemediabusinesstheyliketothinkisfinancialdisciplineplusanenthusiasticattitudetowardsnewtechnology.Old-stylemediamanagersclaimthenewcomersarestillindenialabouthowtechnologyistransformingtheirindustry.Traditionalmediamanagersgrudginglyagreethatsofarprivate-equityinvestorsaredoingverynicelyindeedfromtheirentertainmentdeals.ThebuyersofWarnerMusichavealreadygotbackmostoftheir$2.6billionfromthefarmbycuttingcostsissuingdebtandmakingspecialpayoutstoshareholders.Thisyearitsinvestorsareexpectedtolaunchaninitialpublicofferingwhichcouldbringthemhundredsofmillionsmore.ThecaseoftheexecutivesatTimeWarnerwascitedtoshowthat
Withaseriesofwell-timeddealsprivate-equityfirmsaregivingtraditionalmediamanagerscausetobeenviousTheWarnerMusictransactioninwhichEdgarBronfmanjuniorandthreeprivate-equityfirmspaidTimeWarner$2.6billionfortheunitin2003isalreadyjudgedafinancialtriumphforthebuyers.Theirsuccessislikelytodrawstillmoreprivate-equityintotheindustry.Andtheinvestmentsarelikelytogetbigger:individualprivateequityfundsaregrowing—a$10billionfundislikelythisyear—soeventhebiggestmediafirmscouldcomewithinrangeespeciallyffprivate-equityinvestorsclubtogetherSomeprivate-equityfirmshavelongputmoneyinmediaassetsbutmostlyreliablerelativelyobscurebusinesseswithstablecashflows.Nowsomeofthemareplacingbigstrategicbetsonthemorevolatilebitssuchasmusicandmovies.Andtheyarecurrentlyfarmoreconfidentthanthemediaoldguardthattheadvertisingcycleisabouttoturnsharplyupwards.Onereasonwhyprivate-equityismakingitspresencefeltinmediaisthatithasalotofmoneytoinvest.Otherindustriesarefeelingitsweighttoo.Butprivate-equity’sbuyingspree狂购乱买revealsalotaboutthemediabusinessinparticular.Mediaconglomerates联合公司lacktheconfidencetomakebigacquisitionsafterthelastwaveofdealswentwrong.ExecutivesatTimeWarnerforinstancewhichdisastrouslymergedwithAOLin2000wantedtobuyMGMamoviestudiobuttheboarditissaidweretoonervous.Insteadprivate-equityfirmscombinedwithSonyaconsumer-electronicsgianttobuyMGMlatelastyear.Private-equity’sinterestalsoreflectsthefactthatrevenuegrowthinmediabusinessessuchasbroadcastTVandradioisnowhardtocomeby.Theaverageannualgrowthratefor12categoriesofestablishedAmericanmediabusinessesin1998-2003excludingtheinternetwasjust3.4%saysVeronisSuhlerStevensonaninvestmentbank.Private-equityputsahighervalueonlow-growthhighcashflowassetsthanthepublicstockmarketsaysJonathanNelsonfounderofProvidenceEquityPartnersamedia-focusedprivate-equityfirm.Whatprivate-equitymennowbringtothemediabusinesstheyliketothinkisfinancialdisciplineplusanenthusiasticattitudetowardsnewtechnology.Old-stylemediamanagersclaimthenewcomersarestillindenialabouthowtechnologyistransformingtheirindustry.Traditionalmediamanagersgrudginglyagreethatsofarprivate-equityinvestorsaredoingverynicelyindeedfromtheirentertainmentdeals.ThebuyersofWarnerMusichavealreadygotbackmostoftheir$2.6billionfromthefarmbycuttingcostsissuingdebtandmakingspecialpayoutstoshareholders.Thisyearitsinvestorsareexpectedtolaunchaninitialpublicofferingwhichcouldbringthemhundredsofmillionsmore.Thebesttitleforthetextmightbe
HalfwaythroughTheRebelSelltheauthorspausetomakefunoffree-rangechicken.Payingovertheoddstoensurethatdinnerwasnotinapreviouslifeconfinedtotinycagesisallwellandgood.Butafree-rangechickenisaboutasplausibleasasun-lovingearthworm:givenachoicechickensprefertocurlupinanicedarkcomerofthebarn.Onlyabout15%offree-rangechickensactuallyusethespaceavailabletothem.ThisisjustonecaseinwhichJosephHeathwhoteachesphilosophyattheUniversityofTorontoandAndrewPotterajournalistandresearcherbasedinMontrealfindfaultwithwell-meaningbutintheirviewultimatelynaiveconsumerswhohopetodistancethemselvesfromconsumerismbybuyingtheirshoesfromMotherJonesmagazineinsteadofNike.MrHeathandMrPotterarguethatthecountercultureinallitsattemptstobesubversivehasdonenothingmorethancreatenewsegmentsofthemarketandthusendsupfeedingtheverymonsterofconsumerismandconformityithopestodestroy.IntheprocesstheycoverMarxFreudtheexperimentsonobedienceofStanleyMilgramthefilmsPleasantvilleTheMatrixandAmericanBeauty15th-centurytablemannersNormanMailertheUnabomberreal-estatepricesincentralTorontomorethanoncethevoluntary-simplicitymovementandtheworld’sfunniestjoke.WhyrangesowidelyTheauthors’beefiswithaverysmallgroup:left-wingactivistswhoeschewsmallerpotentiallyusefulcampaignsinfavorofgrandstatementsaboutthehopelessnessofconsumercultureandthedangersofsellingout.Insteadofencouragingusefulactivitiessuchaspushingfornewlegislationwould-beleftistsarelefttoparticipateinunstructuredpointlessdemonstrationsagainstglobalizationorbuyfair-tradecoffeeandfree-rangechickenwhichonlysubstitutessnobberyforactivism.TwoauthorsofbooksthatrailedagainstbrandsNaomiKleinNoLogoandAlissaQuartBrandedcomeinforspecialderisionfordiagnosingtheproblemsofconsumerismbutrefusingtoofferpracticalsolutions.AnticipatingcriticismperhapsMessrsHeathandPottermakesuretoputforthafewoftheirownsolutionssuchasthe35-hourworkingweekandschooluniformstokeepteenagersfromcompetingwitheachothertowearever-more-expensiveclothes.Increasingconsumptiontheyarguethroughoutisnotimposeduponstupidworkersbyoverbearingcompaniesbutarisesasaresultofaculturalarmsrace:eachpersonbuysmoretokeephisstandardoflivinghighrelativetohisneighbors’Imposingsomerestrictionssuchasashorterworkingweekmightnotstopthearmsracebutitwouldatleastcurbitsmostoffensiveexcesses.Thisassumesonefindsexcessconsumptionoffensive;eventheauthorsdonotseementirelysure.Butonthewaytosuchmodestsuggestionstheauthorswanttocriticiseeveryaspectofthecounterculturefromitsdisdainforhomogenisationfranchisesandbrandstoitspoliticaloffshoots.Asaresultthebookwanders:chaptersonuniformsandonthesearchforcoolcouldhavebeencut.Moreovertheauthorsmakethemistakeofassumingthattheconsumerstheysympathisewith—theoneswhobuybrandsandliveintracthouses—knowenoughtoseparatethemselvesfromtheirpurchaseswhereasthefree-trade-coffeebuyersswallowthebrandmessageswholeasitwere.Stillitwouldbeashameifthebook’sramblingskeptitfromgettingread.Whenitfocusesonexplaininghowthecounterculturegrewoutofpost-WorldWarIIcritiquesofmodemsocietyTheRebelSellisalivelyreadwithenoughhumourtokeepthemoretheoreticalstretchesofitsargumentinteresting.Attheveryleastitputsitsfingeronatrend:therewillbeplentyoffuturecriticsofcapitalismliningupfortheirfree-rangechicken.AccordingtoMr.HeathandMr.Potterconsumerismcanbetracedbackto
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