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IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 3
Text4 IBM’syear-old$2.5billioncomputer-chipplantinEastFishkillN.Y.isamanufacturingmarvel.Three-hundredrobotictoolssixmilesofnetworkingcableandmorecomputingpowerthanNASAusestolaunchthespaceshuttleallworktogethertoproducetensofmillionsofchipsayear--eachwithcircuitry800timesthinnerthanahumanhair.Notthatyou’llfindmuchhumanhairaroundtheplant.Otherchipplantsneedabout400employeesatalltimestooperatetheComplexmachinery.ButtodayatEastFishkill100engineerspershiftoverseeatotallyautomatedproductionline.Lastwinterwhenafiercesnowstormsenteveryonehomeearlythemachineshummedalongovernightwithoutanyproblem."TheproductivityincreasesforIBMareamazing"saysPerryHartswicktheseniorprogrammanagerattheplant. ProductivityimprovementslikethoseatIBMcanbeabooninahealthyeconomyhelpingtomakeAmericanbusinessmorecompetitiveabroadandkeepingalidoninflationasemployeesworkhardertomeetstrongdemandfortheirproducts.Buttoday’ssoaringproductivityishavingaharmfulsideeffect:it’sholdingbackjobgrowth.LastThursdaytheCommerceDepartmentreportedthatGDPgrewatanannualrateof2.4percent.Butunemploymentwashoveringatanuncomfortablyhigh6.2percentinJulyand44.000additionaljobswereaxedfrompayrollsmarkingthesixthmonthinarowtheeconomyhaslostjobs. Onefaultisthatseeminglyprofligatespending’onhightechduringthe’90sboom.Morethanthreeyearsafterthebustit’scontinuingtogenerateaproductivitypayoffinsidecompanies.Evenindustrieslikeentertainmentandhighereducationoncethoughttobelargelyimmunetoproductivityimprovementshavebeenrevolutionizedbydigitalmediaonlineresearchtoolscellphonesande-mail. Butthat’snottheonlyreasonfortheproblem.OverthelastthreeyearsAmericanmanufacturershaveshipped2.6millionjobstolow-WagecountrieslikeChina.Meanwhile.afloodofwhite-collarjobs--likecomputertechniciansandcustomerservicereps--havegonetocountrieswithwell-educatedworkforcessuchasIndia. Thereisofcourseasimplesolutiontoallthis-ahottereconomywithstrongerdemandthatwouldforcecompaniestohireworkers.Buttheseven-pointdeclineinJulyoftheConsumerConfidenceIndexdoesn’toffermuchnear-termhope.SomeeconomistsalsoworrythatBush’sdeeptaxcutsare"averyexpensivewayofgettinganamountofstimulusthatistoosmall"saysJanetYellenaprofessorattheHaasSchoolofBusinesswhoalsochairedClinton’sCouncilofEconomicAdvisers.TheBushadministrationrespondsbyaskingAmericanstowaituntilthefulleffectofthecutsarefeltandtheeconomykicksintoahighgeargrowthrateof3percentto4percent.ForthemillionsofAmericanswhoareoutofworkthatdaycan’tcomesoonenough. Prof.JanetYellenthinksthatBush'sdeeptaxcutsare
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 11
Policy-makersandthemediaparticularlyintheUnitedStatesfrequentlyassertthatclimatescienceishighlyuncertain.Somehaveusedthisasanargumentagainstadoptingstrongmeasurestoreducegreenhousegasemissions.ForexamplewhilediscussingamajorU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyreportontherisksofclimatechangethen-EPAadministratorChristineWhitmanargued"Asthereportwentthroughreviewtherewaslessconsensusonthescienceandconclusionsonclimatechange".Somecorporationswhoserevenuesmightheadverselyaffectedbycontrolsoncarbondioxideemissionshavealsoallegedmajoruncertaintiesinthescience.41.__________________. ThescientificconsensusisclearlyexpressedinthereportsoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIPCC.Createdin1988bytheWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationandtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgrammeIPCC’spurposeistoevaluatethestateofclimatescienceasabasisforinformedpolicyactionprimarilyonthebasisofpeer-reviewedandpublishedscientificliterature. InitsmostrecentassessmentIPCCstatesunequivocallythattheconsensusofscientificopinionisthatEarth’sclimateisbeingaffectedbyhumanactivities:"Humanactivities...aremodifyingtheconcentrationofatmosphericconstituents...thatabsorborscatterradiantenergy....Mostoftheobservedwarmingoverthelast50yearsislikelytohavebeenduetotheincreaseingreenhousegasconcentrations". IPCCisnotaloneinitsconclusions.42.__________________.ForexampletheNationalAcademyofSciencesreportClimateChangeScience:AnAnalysisofSomeKeyQuestionsbegins:"GreenhousegasesareaccumulatinginEarth’satmosphereasaresultofhumanactivitiescausingsurfaceairtemperaturesandsubsurfaceoceantemperaturestorise".ThereportexplicitlyaskswhethertheIPCCassessmentisafairsummaryofprofessionalscientificthinkingandanswersyes.43.__________________. Othersagree.TheAmericanMeteorologicalSocietytheAmericanGeophysicalUnionandtheAmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScienceAAASallhaveissuedstatementsinrecentyearsconcludingthattheevidenceforhumanmodificationofclimateiscompelling. Thedraftingofsuchreportsandstatementsinvolvesmanyopportunitiesforcommentcriticismandrevisionanditisnotlikelythattheywoulddivergegreatlyfromtheopinionsofthesocieties’members.Neverthelesstheymightdownplaylegitimatedissentingopinions.44.__________________. The928papersweredividedintosixcategories:explicitendorsementoftheconsensuspositionevaluationofimpactsmitigationproposalsmethodspaleoclimateanalysisandrejectionoftheconsensusposition.Ofallthepapers75%fellintothefirstthreecategorieseitherexplicitlyorimplicitlyacceptingtheconsensusview;25%dealtwithmethodsorpaleoclimatetakingnopositiononcurrentanthropogenicclimatechange.Remarkablynoneofthepapersdisagreedwiththeconsensusposition. 45.__________________. Thisanalysisshowsthatscientistspublishinginthepeer-reviewedliteratureagreewithIPCCtheNationalAcademyofSciencesandthepublicstatementsoftheirprofessionalsocieties.Politicianseconomistsjournalistsandothersmayhavetheimpressionofconfusiondisagreementordiscordamongclimatescientistsbutthatimpressionisincorrect. [A]Manydetailsaboutclimateinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodandthereareamplegroundsforcontinuedresearchtoprovideabetterbasisforunderstandingclimatedynamics. [B]Suchstatementssuggestthattheremightbesubstantivedisagreementinthescientificcommunityabouttherealityofanthropogenicclimatechange.Thisisnotthecase. [C]InrecentyearsallmajorscientificbodiesintheUnitedStateswhosemembers’expertisebearsdirectlyonthematterhaveissuedsimilarstatements. [D]Admittedlyauthorsevaluatingimpactsdevelopingmethodsorstudyingpaleoclimaticchangemightbelievethatcurrentclimatechangeisnatural.Howevernoneofthesepapersarguedthatpoint. [E]Thathypothesiswastestedbyanalyzing928abstractspublishedinreferentscientificjournalsbetween1993and2003andlistedintheISIdatabasewiththekeywords"climatechange". [F]Ifthehistoryofscienceteachesanythingitishumilityandnoonecanbefaultedforfailingtoactonwhatisnotknown. [G]TheIPCC’sconclusionthatmostoftheobservedwarmingofthelast50yearsislikelytohavebeenduetotheincreaseingreenhousegasconcentrationsaccuratelyreflectsthecurrentthinkingofthescientificcommunityonthisissue. 43
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 9
46SpeakingofthelovingwarmthoftheextendedfamilythepopularimageisofgrannybytheTVbabyplayinginthecribandtherestcheerfullyinteractingbetweenthetwogenerationalpoles.Traditionandeducationareeffortlesslypassedoninaclearlymarkedcomfortzone.Perfectforsecuritynottomentionfreebabysitting. Butwait.Studythemother’sface:exhaustedtenseunhappy.Sheisthepivotuponwhomthiscozyworldturns.47Sheisthe"supercarer"whospoonfeedsbabyandgrannybothmakessuretheyareentertainedandoutofdangerlooksaftertherestofthehouseholdandchancesareholdsdownapayingjob. Stuckbetweendemandingorweakgrandparentsandalwaysdemandingandvulnerablelittleonesthiswomanisnotsomuchsandwichedascrushedbetweengenerations.Itisnotsurprisingthenthatareportlastweekclaimedthat65percentofsupercarersweredissatisfiedwiththeirlives. Ihadatasteoftheirexistencewhenatthebeginningoftheyearmy73-year-oldfathercametostay.48Hewassoillthathecouldn’twalkorevenrolloverinhisbedandwasasadhelplesspresenceasinneedofmyattentionasmykids.Shemeanwhiledidn’tenjoysharingherspaceandmytimewithsomeonewhocomplainedloudlyaboutthenoiseshemade.Runningbetweenthemconsciousthatallthis"caring"wastakingitstollIrememberthinkingthiswashellasmanypeople80percentofthemwomendailylivedit. IfyouarewellofflikeCherieBoothsaythefactthatyouareasupercarerBoothaQCwiththreechildrenintheirteensandtwentiesalsolooksafterhermotherandheryoungsonLeopresentsachallengebutisatleastachievable.Whatoftheothersthoughtheoneswhoearn￡8anhourcleaningsomeoneelse’shomeorsweepingahospitalward7Theyfindnolet-upathomebutcrampedlivingspaceinvadedbycryingbabiesandcoughingoldfolk.49Forthembeingasupercarermeansbeingasuperloserwithfarlessofwhateveryoneconsidersimportant:moneyprivacyqualitytimeforyourpartnerandchildren. Demographictrendsmeanthatmoreofusaredestinedtobesupercarers;therearenowabout2.5millionandthisisexpectedtoriseto3.9millionby2020That’salobbywithconsiderablebargainingpotential... Sofarsupercarershavenotflexedtheirmuscles.50Thegovernmentwouldbewisetoofferthemtaxbreakstheallowanceavailabletothoseassistingthedisabledandflexibleworkschedules.Otherwisesupercarerswillrebel.Oncetheydecidethattheveryoldastheveryyoungarenottheirresponsibilitywhowillthentakeuptheburden 49
Thewinnertakesallitiswidelysupposedincomputingcircles.Indeedgeekshavecoinedaword"Googlearchy"forthewayinwhichsearchenginesencouragewebtraffictowardsthemostpopularsites.46Thebeliefthatsearchenginesmakepopularwebsitesevermorepopularattheexpenseofotherpagesisnowbeingchallengedbyresearch. 47TheapparentlymagicalabilityofsearchenginessuchasGoogletoreturnrelevantwebsitesevenwhengiventhesketchiestofcluesbythepersonenteringaqueryreliesontheuseofmathematicalrecipesoralgorithms.Googleworksbyanalysingthestructureofthewebitself.Eachofitsbillionsofpagescanlinktootherpagesandcanalsointurnbelinkedtobyothers.Furthermoreifthepagesthatlinktothispageamalsoimportantthenthatpageisevenmorelikelytobeimportant.48ThealgorithmhasbeenmadeincreasinglycomplexovertheyearstodeterthosewhowouldmanipulatetheirpagestoappearhigherintherankingsbutitremainsattheheartofGoogle’ssuccess. Googleisnotaloneinthis.Manysearchenginestakeaccountofthenumberoflinkstoawebsitewhentheyreturntheresultsofasearch.49Becauseofthisthereisawidespreadbeliefamongcomputersocialandpoliticalscientiststhatsearchenginescreateaviciouscirclethatamplifiesthedominanceofestablishedandalreadypopularwebsites.Pagesreturnedbysearchenginesaremorelikelytobediscoveredandconsequentlylinkedtobyothers. NotsoaccordingtoacontroversialnewpaperthathasrecentlyappearedonarXivanonlinecollectionofphysicsandrelatedpapers.InitSantoFortunatoandhiscolleaguesatIndianaUniversityinAmericaandBielefeldUniversityinGermanyclaimthatsearchenginesactuallyhaveanegalitarianeffectthatincreasestraffictolesspopularsites. Theresearchersdevelopedamodelthatdescribedtwoextremecases.Inthefirstpeoplebrowsedthewebonlybysurfingrandomlinks.Inthesecondpeopleonlyvisitedpagesthatwerereturnedbysearchengines.Theresearchersthenturnedtotherealworld.Theyplottedthetraffictoawebsite--measuredasthefractionofallpageviewsmadeinathree-monthperiod--againstthenumberofincominglinksmadetothatwebsite.50Totheirsurprisetheyfoundthattherelationshipbetweenthetwodidnotliebetweentheextremessuggestedbytheirmodelbutsomewherecompletelydifferent.Itappearstoshowthatthesupposedbiasinfavourofpopularpagesisactuallymitigatedbythecombinationofsearchenginesandpeoplefollowingrandomlinks. Becauseofthisthereisawidespreadbeliefamongcomputersocialandpoliticalscientiststhatsearchenginescreateaviciouscirclethatamplifiesthedominanceofestablishedandalreadypopularwebsites.
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 1
Text3 Thekakapoiswidelyregardedastheworld’smostabsurdbird.Itisaflightlessnight-activeparrotthatlivesinNewZealand.Itisthusaprimeexampleofthesortofevolutionaryexperimentthathappensonislandsthatlackseriouspredators. Nowsadlythekakapopopulationhasbeenreducedtoafewdozenindividuals.Buteffortstopreservethespecieshaveledtoanothersortofexperiment--onethathasproducedthebestevidencesofarforasocalledsex-allocationtheory. BruceRobertsonoftheUniversityofCanterburyandhiscolleagueshavebeenstudyingamystery.Tokeepthekakapopopulationgoingconservationistshavebeenfeedingthebirds--inparticularthefemales--sothattheystayabovetheminimumweighttheyneedtobreed.Thatworkedsplendidlyasfarasitwent.Between1997and2005theadultpopulationrosefrom50to83.Butthesexratiowenthaywire.Those83birdsaredividedinto45malesand38females.Moreoverfemaleswereproducingtwiceasmanysonsasdaughters.Sinceanotherofthekakapo’speculiaritiesisitsbreedingsysteminwhichthemaleplaysnopartinraisingtheyoungthesurvivalprospectsofthespeciesarenotenhancedbythisbiasedsexratio. DrRobertsonsuspectedthatthesexratiowasnotanaccident.Inallspeciesthenumberofdescendantsleftbyindividualmalesismorevariablethanthenumberleftbyindividualfemales.Thatmeansyourdaughtersaremorelikelytohaveatleastsomechildrenthanyoursonsbutsuccessfulsonshavemanymorechildrenthansuccessfuldaughters.Inaspecieslikethekakapowherethemaleshavetodisplaytothefemalesinafashionshowandwhereonlytheshowiestmalesgetpickedtoreproduceitmakessensetohavesonsonlyiftheyarelikelytobethebestmalesaround.Otherwiseitisbettertohavedaughters. Andsoitseemstobewiththekakapo.Byprovisioningthebirdswithasmuchfoodastheycaneatfemaleshavebeenbroughttothepeakofcondition--theidealstatetoproducetop-classsons.Andtheyhavedonesoinabundance. TotestthecorrectnessofthisideaDrRobertsonandhisteamdevisedamoresophisticatedfeedingschedulethattookaccountofeachfemale’sstartingweightandfattenedheruptothepointatwhichshewascapableofreproducingbutnotmuchfurtherTheresultjustpublishedinBiologyLetterswasthatthesexratiosettleddownatamoresensible50:50.Thoughitdidnotactuallydroptofavordaughtersthatisstillanimpressiveagreementwiththeory.Itmightevensavethekakapofromextinction. ThewordhaywireLine5Paragraph3mostprobablymeans
Text1 WhenexecutivesatGooglewentlookingforWallStreetinvestmentbankerstounderwritethecompany’smassiveinitialpublicofferingtheylaiddownstricttermsofengagement:bringusnewideasonhowtosellthedealtoinvestorsandsavetheusualpoliticalgamesmanship.Butwithsuchahugepaydayatstake--anestimated$100millioninfeesforhandlingtheoffering--wouldyouexpectallthebigfirmstoplaybytheGooglerulesOfcoursenot.JustaskGoldmanSachs. TowinachunkoftheGooglebusinessGoldmanthenation’spremierinvestmentbanksetfreeitsCEOHankPaulsontopullsomestrings.PaulsonisoneofWallStreet’sbest"callmen"whocanwaveaPalmPDAfullofconnectionswhenit’scrunchtimetobringhomeadeal.ButNewsweekhaslearnedthatPaulsontriedtosidestepGoogle’sordersbyreachingouttooneofGoogle’slargestinvestorsKleinerPerkinsthepowerfulventure-capitalfirmthatwasanearlyGooglebacker.ThemovehelpeddoomGoldman’seffortstowintheleadunderwritingspotwhichwentinsteadtoCreditSuisseFirstBostonandMorganStanley. PaulsonthoughthisbestshotwasJohnDoerroneofKleiner’stoppartners.Badmove.WhenwordofPaulson’smisstepgotbacktoGoogle’stopexecutivesGoldmanwasquicklybumpedfromthetopoftheshortlist."ThepeopleatGoogleweresuchenthusiastsabouttherules"saidoneexecutivewhoworksatarivalWallStreetfirm."Whentheyheardaboutthistheywentape."Noneofthepartiesinvolved--GoogleGoldmanSachsorDoerr--wouldcomment. ThetwowinnersCSFBandMorganStanleymanagedtokeepalowprofile.JohnMackCSFB’sfamouslywell-connectedchiefexecutivepurposelystayedoutofthebiddingprocessforfearthathemighttipthescalestoanotherplayerpeoplewithknowledgeofthemattersay.MeanwhilenewrulesforWallStreetresearchanalystsappeartohavepreventedMaryMeekerMorganStanley’stopInternetanalystfromplayingadirectroleeventhoughsheandDoerrhavedonebusinesstogetherforyears. Goldmanmeanwhilecan’tblameitslossjustonPaulson.PeopleclosetothedealsaybankersforthefirmbraggedtoGoogleabouttheGoldmannameanddidn’tgenerateenoughideasabouthowtosellsharestoinvestorsthroughanauction."TheirlackofmarketingwitmayhavehurtthemmorethanPaulson"saidtheexecutivefromarivalfirm.Sometimesitreallydoespaytoplaybytherules. GoldmanmightlearnalessonfromGoogle'sdealthat
Thewinnertakesallitiswidelysupposedincomputingcircles.Indeedgeekshavecoinedaword"Googlearchy"forthewayinwhichsearchenginesencouragewebtraffictowardsthemostpopularsites.46Thebeliefthatsearchenginesmakepopularwebsitesevermorepopularattheexpenseofotherpagesisnowbeingchallengedbyresearch. 47TheapparentlymagicalabilityofsearchenginessuchasGoogletoreturnrelevantwebsitesevenwhengiventhesketchiestofcluesbythepersonenteringaqueryreliesontheuseofmathematicalrecipesoralgorithms.Googleworksbyanalysingthestructureofthewebitself.Eachofitsbillionsofpagescanlinktootherpagesandcanalsointurnbelinkedtobyothers.Furthermoreifthepagesthatlinktothispageamalsoimportantthenthatpageisevenmorelikelytobeimportant.48ThealgorithmhasbeenmadeincreasinglycomplexovertheyearstodeterthosewhowouldmanipulatetheirpagestoappearhigherintherankingsbutitremainsattheheartofGoogle’ssuccess. Googleisnotaloneinthis.Manysearchenginestakeaccountofthenumberoflinkstoawebsitewhentheyreturntheresultsofasearch.49Becauseofthisthereisawidespreadbeliefamongcomputersocialandpoliticalscientiststhatsearchenginescreateaviciouscirclethatamplifiesthedominanceofestablishedandalreadypopularwebsites.Pagesreturnedbysearchenginesaremorelikelytobediscoveredandconsequentlylinkedtobyothers. NotsoaccordingtoacontroversialnewpaperthathasrecentlyappearedonarXivanonlinecollectionofphysicsandrelatedpapers.InitSantoFortunatoandhiscolleaguesatIndianaUniversityinAmericaandBielefeldUniversityinGermanyclaimthatsearchenginesactuallyhaveanegalitarianeffectthatincreasestraffictolesspopularsites. Theresearchersdevelopedamodelthatdescribedtwoextremecases.Inthefirstpeoplebrowsedthewebonlybysurfingrandomlinks.Inthesecondpeopleonlyvisitedpagesthatwerereturnedbysearchengines.Theresearchersthenturnedtotherealworld.Theyplottedthetraffictoawebsite--measuredasthefractionofallpageviewsmadeinathree-monthperiod--againstthenumberofincominglinksmadetothatwebsite.50Totheirsurprisetheyfoundthattherelationshipbetweenthetwodidnotliebetweentheextremessuggestedbytheirmodelbutsomewherecompletelydifferent.Itappearstoshowthatthesupposedbiasinfavourofpopularpagesisactuallymitigatedbythecombinationofsearchenginesandpeoplefollowingrandomlinks. TheapparentlymagicalabilityofsearchenginessuchasGoogletoreturnrelevantwebsitesevenwhengiventhesketchiestofcluesbythepersonenteringaqueryreliesontheuseofmathematicalrecipesoralgorithms.
WriteitneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsign’ourownnameattheendoftheletter;useLiMinginstead.Youdonotneedtowritetheaddress.
Text4 IBM’syear-old$2.5billioncomputer-chipplantinEastFishkillN.Y.isamanufacturingmarvel.Three-hundredrobotictoolssixmilesofnetworkingcableandmorecomputingpowerthanNASAusestolaunchthespaceshuttleallworktogethertoproducetensofmillionsofchipsayear--eachwithcircuitry800timesthinnerthanahumanhair.Notthatyou’llfindmuchhumanhairaroundtheplant.Otherchipplantsneedabout400employeesatalltimestooperatetheComplexmachinery.ButtodayatEastFishkill100engineerspershiftoverseeatotallyautomatedproductionline.Lastwinterwhenafiercesnowstormsenteveryonehomeearlythemachineshummedalongovernightwithoutanyproblem."TheproductivityincreasesforIBMareamazing"saysPerryHartswicktheseniorprogrammanagerattheplant. ProductivityimprovementslikethoseatIBMcanbeabooninahealthyeconomyhelpingtomakeAmericanbusinessmorecompetitiveabroadandkeepingalidoninflationasemployeesworkhardertomeetstrongdemandfortheirproducts.Buttoday’ssoaringproductivityishavingaharmfulsideeffect:it’sholdingbackjobgrowth.LastThursdaytheCommerceDepartmentreportedthatGDPgrewatanannualrateof2.4percent.Butunemploymentwashoveringatanuncomfortablyhigh6.2percentinJulyand44.000additionaljobswereaxedfrompayrollsmarkingthesixthmonthinarowtheeconomyhaslostjobs. Onefaultisthatseeminglyprofligatespending’onhightechduringthe’90sboom.Morethanthreeyearsafterthebustit’scontinuingtogenerateaproductivitypayoffinsidecompanies.Evenindustrieslikeentertainmentandhighereducationoncethoughttobelargelyimmunetoproductivityimprovementshavebeenrevolutionizedbydigitalmediaonlineresearchtoolscellphonesande-mail. Butthat’snottheonlyreasonfortheproblem.OverthelastthreeyearsAmericanmanufacturershaveshipped2.6millionjobstolow-WagecountrieslikeChina.Meanwhile.afloodofwhite-collarjobs--likecomputertechniciansandcustomerservicereps--havegonetocountrieswithwell-educatedworkforcessuchasIndia. Thereisofcourseasimplesolutiontoallthis-ahottereconomywithstrongerdemandthatwouldforcecompaniestohireworkers.Buttheseven-pointdeclineinJulyoftheConsumerConfidenceIndexdoesn’toffermuchnear-termhope.SomeeconomistsalsoworrythatBush’sdeeptaxcutsare"averyexpensivewayofgettinganamountofstimulusthatistoosmall"saysJanetYellenaprofessorattheHaasSchoolofBusinesswhoalsochairedClinton’sCouncilofEconomicAdvisers.TheBushadministrationrespondsbyaskingAmericanstowaituntilthefulleffectofthecutsarefeltandtheeconomykicksintoahighgeargrowthrateof3percentto4percent.ForthemillionsofAmericanswhoareoutofworkthatdaycan’tcomesoonenough. Wecanlearnfromthefourthparagraphthattheauthorbelieves
Text1 WhenexecutivesatGooglewentlookingforWallStreetinvestmentbankerstounderwritethecompany’smassiveinitialpublicofferingtheylaiddownstricttermsofengagement:bringusnewideasonhowtosellthedealtoinvestorsandsavetheusualpoliticalgamesmanship.Butwithsuchahugepaydayatstake--anestimated$100millioninfeesforhandlingtheoffering--wouldyouexpectallthebigfirmstoplaybytheGooglerulesOfcoursenot.JustaskGoldmanSachs. TowinachunkoftheGooglebusinessGoldmanthenation’spremierinvestmentbanksetfreeitsCEOHankPaulsontopullsomestrings.PaulsonisoneofWallStreet’sbest"callmen"whocanwaveaPalmPDAfullofconnectionswhenit’scrunchtimetobringhomeadeal.ButNewsweekhaslearnedthatPaulsontriedtosidestepGoogle’sordersbyreachingouttooneofGoogle’slargestinvestorsKleinerPerkinsthepowerfulventure-capitalfirmthatwasanearlyGooglebacker.ThemovehelpeddoomGoldman’seffortstowintheleadunderwritingspotwhichwentinsteadtoCreditSuisseFirstBostonandMorganStanley. PaulsonthoughthisbestshotwasJohnDoerroneofKleiner’stoppartners.Badmove.WhenwordofPaulson’smisstepgotbacktoGoogle’stopexecutivesGoldmanwasquicklybumpedfromthetopoftheshortlist."ThepeopleatGoogleweresuchenthusiastsabouttherules"saidoneexecutivewhoworksatarivalWallStreetfirm."Whentheyheardaboutthistheywentape."Noneofthepartiesinvolved--GoogleGoldmanSachsorDoerr--wouldcomment. ThetwowinnersCSFBandMorganStanleymanagedtokeepalowprofile.JohnMackCSFB’sfamouslywell-connectedchiefexecutivepurposelystayedoutofthebiddingprocessforfearthathemighttipthescalestoanotherplayerpeoplewithknowledgeofthemattersay.MeanwhilenewrulesforWallStreetresearchanalystsappeartohavepreventedMaryMeekerMorganStanley’stopInternetanalystfromplayingadirectroleeventhoughsheandDoerrhavedonebusinesstogetherforyears. Goldmanmeanwhilecan’tblameitslossjustonPaulson.PeopleclosetothedealsaybankersforthefirmbraggedtoGoogleabouttheGoldmannameanddidn’tgenerateenoughideasabouthowtosellsharestoinvestorsthroughanauction."TheirlackofmarketingwitmayhavehurtthemmorethanPaulson"saidtheexecutivefromarivalfirm.Sometimesitreallydoespaytoplaybytherules. Thespeakerinthethirdparagraphthinksthat
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 5
Text3 Thekakapoiswidelyregardedastheworld’smostabsurdbird.Itisaflightlessnight-activeparrotthatlivesinNewZealand.Itisthusaprimeexampleofthesortofevolutionaryexperimentthathappensonislandsthatlackseriouspredators. Nowsadlythekakapopopulationhasbeenreducedtoafewdozenindividuals.Buteffortstopreservethespecieshaveledtoanothersortofexperiment--onethathasproducedthebestevidencesofarforasocalledsex-allocationtheory. BruceRobertsonoftheUniversityofCanterburyandhiscolleagueshavebeenstudyingamystery.Tokeepthekakapopopulationgoingconservationistshavebeenfeedingthebirds--inparticularthefemales--sothattheystayabovetheminimumweighttheyneedtobreed.Thatworkedsplendidlyasfarasitwent.Between1997and2005theadultpopulationrosefrom50to83.Butthesexratiowenthaywire.Those83birdsaredividedinto45malesand38females.Moreoverfemaleswereproducingtwiceasmanysonsasdaughters.Sinceanotherofthekakapo’speculiaritiesisitsbreedingsysteminwhichthemaleplaysnopartinraisingtheyoungthesurvivalprospectsofthespeciesarenotenhancedbythisbiasedsexratio. DrRobertsonsuspectedthatthesexratiowasnotanaccident.Inallspeciesthenumberofdescendantsleftbyindividualmalesismorevariablethanthenumberleftbyindividualfemales.Thatmeansyourdaughtersaremorelikelytohaveatleastsomechildrenthanyoursonsbutsuccessfulsonshavemanymorechildrenthansuccessfuldaughters.Inaspecieslikethekakapowherethemaleshavetodisplaytothefemalesinafashionshowandwhereonlytheshowiestmalesgetpickedtoreproduceitmakessensetohavesonsonlyiftheyarelikelytobethebestmalesaround.Otherwiseitisbettertohavedaughters. Andsoitseemstobewiththekakapo.Byprovisioningthebirdswithasmuchfoodastheycaneatfemaleshavebeenbroughttothepeakofcondition--theidealstatetoproducetop-classsons.Andtheyhavedonesoinabundance. TotestthecorrectnessofthisideaDrRobertsonandhisteamdevisedamoresophisticatedfeedingschedulethattookaccountofeachfemale’sstartingweightandfattenedheruptothepointatwhichshewascapableofreproducingbutnotmuchfurtherTheresultjustpublishedinBiologyLetterswasthatthesexratiosettleddownatamoresensible50:50.Thoughitdidnotactuallydroptofavordaughtersthatisstillanimpressiveagreementwiththeory.Itmightevensavethekakapofromextinction. BruceRobertsonandhiscolleagueshavebeenstudyingon
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 19
Withthedepletionofthecodfisheryandsomanyothercoastalfishstocksworldwidethefishingindustryhasturnedtothehighseastoexploittheirresources.Fishingoperationsarenow1theseamountsoceanicridgesandplateausofthedeepocean2nationaljurisdictionwhereownershipandresponsibilitydonot3toanynation. 4adecadeormorewehavecausedsignificantdamageto5unknownecosystemsdepletedspeciesandprobablydoomedmanyothersto6.Everydaycommercialfishingfleets7primarilyfromjust11nationsventure8thehighseastofishthedeepocean.What’sleftistrulyalonelyinfertileunderseadesert. Thehighseasareveryspecial.Itisherewhereyoucanfind9groupingsofanimalsthat10theirenergyfromsources11thesunaroundvolcanoesonthedeepseafloor.Itisonlyherewhereyoucanfindareasstillfreefromintroducedspecies12intheseasaroundAntarctica.Anditisherewhereyoucanfind13organismsthataremorethan8000yearsoldlikemanyofthemassivedeep-seacorms. Butwhatreallysetsthehighseas14fromallotherareasweknowisthe15lackofprotectionforanyofthisnaturalheritage. AUnitedNationsmeetingrecentlyfinallypaygreatattentiontothehighseasandputthemonthe16.Governmentofficialsfromaroundtheworldgatheredtogetherwithscientistsrepresentativesfromthefishing17conservationgroupsandotherstake-holderstodiscussconservationand18useofmarinebiologicaldiversityinthehighseas1964percentoftheEarth’ssurface. Theyneedtomovequickly.20thefragilityoftheseenvironmentswesimplydohothavetheluxuryoftimebutwecanactbeforeitistoolate. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.1
Text1 WhenexecutivesatGooglewentlookingforWallStreetinvestmentbankerstounderwritethecompany’smassiveinitialpublicofferingtheylaiddownstricttermsofengagement:bringusnewideasonhowtosellthedealtoinvestorsandsavetheusualpoliticalgamesmanship.Butwithsuchahugepaydayatstake--anestimated$100millioninfeesforhandlingtheoffering--wouldyouexpectallthebigfirmstoplaybytheGooglerulesOfcoursenot.JustaskGoldmanSachs. TowinachunkoftheGooglebusinessGoldmanthenation’spremierinvestmentbanksetfreeitsCEOHankPaulsontopullsomestrings.PaulsonisoneofWallStreet’sbest"callmen"whocanwaveaPalmPDAfullofconnectionswhenit’scrunchtimetobringhomeadeal.ButNewsweekhaslearnedthatPaulsontriedtosidestepGoogle’sordersbyreachingouttooneofGoogle’slargestinvestorsKleinerPerkinsthepowerfulventure-capitalfirmthatwasanearlyGooglebacker.ThemovehelpeddoomGoldman’seffortstowintheleadunderwritingspotwhichwentinsteadtoCreditSuisseFirstBostonandMorganStanley. PaulsonthoughthisbestshotwasJohnDoerroneofKleiner’stoppartners.Badmove.WhenwordofPaulson’smisstepgotbacktoGoogle’stopexecutivesGoldmanwasquicklybumpedfromthetopoftheshortlist."ThepeopleatGoogleweresuchenthusiastsabouttherules"saidoneexecutivewhoworksatarivalWallStreetfirm."Whentheyheardaboutthistheywentape."Noneofthepartiesinvolved--GoogleGoldmanSachsorDoerr--wouldcomment. ThetwowinnersCSFBandMorganStanleymanagedtokeepalowprofile.JohnMackCSFB’sfamouslywell-connectedchiefexecutivepurposelystayedoutofthebiddingprocessforfearthathemighttipthescalestoanotherplayerpeoplewithknowledgeofthemattersay.MeanwhilenewrulesforWallStreetresearchanalystsappeartohavepreventedMaryMeekerMorganStanley’stopInternetanalystfromplayingadirectroleeventhoughsheandDoerrhavedonebusinesstogetherforyears. Goldmanmeanwhilecan’tblameitslossjustonPaulson.PeopleclosetothedealsaybankersforthefirmbraggedtoGoogleabouttheGoldmannameanddidn’tgenerateenoughideasabouthowtosellsharestoinvestorsthroughanauction."TheirlackofmarketingwitmayhavehurtthemmorethanPaulson"saidtheexecutivefromarivalfirm.Sometimesitreallydoespaytoplaybytherules. HankPaulson'snameismentionedtoshowthat
Text2 LastyearAmerica’sDefenceAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencyDARPAthoughtitwouldbeagoodideatoorganizearobotraceacrosstheNevadadesert.TheideaoftheGrandChallengeasDARPAdubbeditwasforautonomousrobotvehiclestosteera227km142-milecourseandclaima$1mjackpot.ThiswouldbeafirststeptowardsDARPA’sultimategoalofbeingabletobuildunmannedself-drivingmilitaryvehiclesandthuskeepAmericantroopsoutofharm’swayonthebattlefield. Thisyear’scropof23entrantswereofferedanevengreaterincentive--a$2mprizeforthewinner.Thatplustheintervening18monthsseemstohavedonethetrick.Thistimefivevehiclesfinishedthe211kincourse.ThewinneramodifiedVolkswagenTouaregdubbedStanleybyitsmakersateamfromStanfordUniversitydiditinameresixhoursand54minutes. StanleywasofcoursespeciallyhardenedbyitsdesignersfortheroughterrainoftheNevadadesert.Thecleverbithoweverwasthevehicle’sbrain.ThiswasdesignedandbuiltbytheStanfordArtificialIntelligenceLaboratorySAIL. Stanley’sbrainconsistsofsixtop-of-the-rangePentiumchipswiredcollaborativelytogether.Itisprogrammedwithspecialsoftwarethatisabletolearnfromitsmistakes.Thissoftwaremasteredthetricksofcollision-avoidanceinaseriesofdeserttestruns’conductedbeforetheracestarted. LikeallbrainsStanley’shasarangeofsensoryinputstoprocess.AglobalpositioningsystemGPSreceivertellsitwhereontheEarth’ssurfaceitis.Televisioncamerasradarandfourlaserbaseddistancemonitorstellitwhatitssurroundingsarelike.BycomparingitsGPSlocationwithitspre-programmeddestinationannouncedonlyafewhoursbeforetheracebeganitknewwhichwayitwantedtogo.Andbystudyingitssurroundingsitcouldworkoutwhatlookedlikethesafestroutethatwasalsoinapproximatelytherightdirection. AlthoughStanleycarriedoffthelaurelstheotherfourfinishersdidrespectably.SandstormmanagedatimejusttenminutesbehindthewinnerwhilehersistervehicleHighlandercameintenminutesafterthat.GrayBotandTerraMaxtheothertwocourse-completerscameinatsevenhours30minutesand12hours51minutesrespectively. Sosmartautonomousvehiclescanindeedfindtheirwayacrossseveralhundredkilometresofdesert.ThequestioniswhatnextDARPA’sanswerofcoursewillbetogodownthemilitaryroute.ButthissortoftechnologyhasobviouscivilianapplicationsaswellasSebastianThruntheheadofbothSAILandtheStanfordracingteamiskeentoemphasize. DrThrunthinksthatitcouldleadtoself-drivingroadvehicleswithin30yearsand--moreimmediately-togreatlyimprovedcollision-avoidancesystems.WhetherthefreewaysofCaliforniawillproveaseasytonavigateasthegulchesofNevadathoughremainstobeseen. Stanleywontheracemostprobablybecause
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 17
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 15
46SpeakingofthelovingwarmthoftheextendedfamilythepopularimageisofgrannybytheTVbabyplayinginthecribandtherestcheerfullyinteractingbetweenthetwogenerationalpoles.Traditionandeducationareeffortlesslypassedoninaclearlymarkedcomfortzone.Perfectforsecuritynottomentionfreebabysitting. Butwait.Studythemother’sface:exhaustedtenseunhappy.Sheisthepivotuponwhomthiscozyworldturns.47Sheisthe"supercarer"whospoonfeedsbabyandgrannybothmakessuretheyareentertainedandoutofdangerlooksaftertherestofthehouseholdandchancesareholdsdownapayingjob. Stuckbetweendemandingorweakgrandparentsandalwaysdemandingandvulnerablelittleonesthiswomanisnotsomuchsandwichedascrushedbetweengenerations.Itisnotsurprisingthenthatareportlastweekclaimedthat65percentofsupercarersweredissatisfiedwiththeirlives. Ihadatasteoftheirexistencewhenatthebeginningoftheyearmy73-year-oldfathercametostay.48Hewassoillthathecouldn’twalkorevenrolloverinhisbedandwasasadhelplesspresenceasinneedofmyattentionasmykids.Shemeanwhiledidn’tenjoysharingherspaceandmytimewithsomeonewhocomplainedloudlyaboutthenoiseshemade.Runningbetweenthemconsciousthatallthis"caring"wastakingitstollIrememberthinkingthiswashellasmanypeople80percentofthemwomendailylivedit. IfyouarewellofflikeCherieBoothsaythefactthatyouareasupercarerBoothaQCwiththreechildrenintheirteensandtwentiesalsolooksafterhermotherandheryoungsonLeopresentsachallengebutisatleastachievable.Whatoftheothersthoughtheoneswhoearn￡8anhourcleaningsomeoneelse’shomeorsweepingahospitalward7Theyfindnolet-upathomebutcrampedlivingspaceinvadedbycryingbabiesandcoughingoldfolk.49Forthembeingasupercarermeansbeingasuperloserwithfarlessofwhateveryoneconsidersimportant:moneyprivacyqualitytimeforyourpartnerandchildren. Demographictrendsmeanthatmoreofusaredestinedtobesupercarers;therearenowabout2.5millionandthisisexpectedtoriseto3.9millionby2020That’salobbywithconsiderablebargainingpotential... Sofarsupercarershavenotflexedtheirmuscles.50Thegovernmentwouldbewisetoofferthemtaxbreakstheallowanceavailabletothoseassistingthedisabledandflexibleworkschedules.Otherwisesupercarerswillrebel.Oncetheydecidethattheveryoldastheveryyoungarenottheirresponsibilitywhowillthentakeuptheburden 47
Policy-makersandthemediaparticularlyintheUnitedStatesfrequentlyassertthatclimatescienceishighlyuncertain.Somehaveusedthisasanargumentagainstadoptingstrongmeasurestoreducegreenhousegasemissions.ForexamplewhilediscussingamajorU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyreportontherisksofclimatechangethen-EPAadministratorChristineWhitmanargued"Asthereportwentthroughreviewtherewaslessconsensusonthescienceandconclusionsonclimatechange".Somecorporationswhoserevenuesmightheadverselyaffectedbycontrolsoncarbondioxideemissionshavealsoallegedmajoruncertaintiesinthescience.41.__________________. ThescientificconsensusisclearlyexpressedinthereportsoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIPCC.Createdin1988bytheWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationandtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgrammeIPCC’spurposeistoevaluatethestateofclimatescienceasabasisforinformedpolicyactionprimarilyonthebasisofpeer-reviewedandpublishedscientificliterature. InitsmostrecentassessmentIPCCstatesunequivocallythattheconsensusofscientificopinionisthatEarth’sclimateisbeingaffectedbyhumanactivities:"Humanactivities...aremodifyingtheconcentrationofatmosphericconstituents...thatabsorborscatterradiantenergy....Mostoftheobservedwarmingoverthelast50yearsislikelytohavebeenduetotheincreaseingreenhousegasconcentrations". IPCCisnotaloneinitsconclusions.42.__________________.ForexampletheNationalAcademyofSciencesreportClimateChangeScience:AnAnalysisofSomeKeyQuestionsbegins:"GreenhousegasesareaccumulatinginEarth’satmosphereasaresultofhumanactivitiescausingsurfaceairtemperaturesandsubsurfaceoceantemperaturestorise".ThereportexplicitlyaskswhethertheIPCCassessmentisafairsummaryofprofessionalscientificthinkingandanswersyes.43.__________________. Othersagree.TheAmericanMeteorologicalSocietytheAmericanGeophysicalUnionandtheAmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScienceAAASallhaveissuedstatementsinrecentyearsconcludingthattheevidenceforhumanmodificationofclimateiscompelling. Thedraftingofsuchreportsandstatementsinvolvesmanyopportunitiesforcommentcriticismandrevisionanditisnotlikelythattheywoulddivergegreatlyfromtheopinionsofthesocieties’members.Neverthelesstheymightdownplaylegitimatedissentingopinions.44.__________________. The928papersweredividedintosixcategories:explicitendorsementoftheconsensuspositionevaluationofimpactsmitigationproposalsmethodspaleoclimateanalysisandrejectionoftheconsensusposition.Ofallthepapers75%fellintothefirstthreecategorieseitherexplicitlyorimplicitlyacceptingtheconsensusview;25%dealtwithmethodsorpaleoclimatetakingnopositiononcurrentanthropogenicclimatechange.Remarkablynoneofthepapersdisagreedwiththeconsensusposition. 45.__________________. Thisanalysisshowsthatscientistspublishinginthepeer-reviewedliteratureagreewithIPCCtheNationalAcademyofSciencesandthepublicstatementsoftheirprofessionalsocieties.Politicianseconomistsjournalistsandothersmayhavetheimpressionofconfusiondisagreementordiscordamongclimatescientistsbutthatimpressionisincorrect. [A]Manydetailsaboutclimateinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodandthereareamplegroundsforcontinuedresearchtoprovideabetterbasisforunderstandingclimatedynamics. [B]Suchstatementssuggestthattheremightbesubstantivedisagreementinthescientificcommunityabouttherealityofanthropogenicclimatechange.Thisisnotthecase. [C]InrecentyearsallmajorscientificbodiesintheUnitedStateswhosemembers’expertisebearsdirectlyonthematterhaveissuedsimilarstatements. [D]Admittedlyauthorsevaluatingimpactsdevelopingmethodsorstudyingpaleoclimaticchangemightbelievethatcurrentclimatechangeisnatural.Howevernoneofthesepapersarguedthatpoint. [E]Thathypothesiswastestedbyanalyzing928abstractspublishedinreferentscientificjournalsbetween1993and2003andlistedintheISIdatabasewiththekeywords"climatechange". [F]Ifthehistoryofscienceteachesanythingitishumilityandnoonecanbefaultedforfailingtoactonwhatisnotknown. [G]TheIPCC’sconclusionthatmostoftheobservedwarmingofthelast50yearsislikelytohavebeenduetotheincreaseingreenhousegasconcentrationsaccuratelyreflectsthecurrentthinkingofthescientificcommunityonthisissue. 41
Text2 LastyearAmerica’sDefenceAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencyDARPAthoughtitwouldbeagoodideatoorganizearobotraceacrosstheNevadadesert.TheideaoftheGrandChallengeasDARPAdubbeditwasforautonomousrobotvehiclestosteera227km142-milecourseandclaima$1mjackpot.ThiswouldbeafirststeptowardsDARPA’sultimategoalofbeingabletobuildunmannedself-drivingmilitaryvehiclesandthuskeepAmericantroopsoutofharm’swayonthebattlefield. Thisyear’scropof23entrantswereofferedanevengreaterincentive--a$2mprizeforthewinner.Thatplustheintervening18monthsseemstohavedonethetrick.Thistimefivevehiclesfinishedthe211kincourse.ThewinneramodifiedVolkswagenTouaregdubbedStanleybyitsmakersateamfromStanfordUniversitydiditinameresixhoursand54minutes. StanleywasofcoursespeciallyhardenedbyitsdesignersfortheroughterrainoftheNevadadesert.Thecleverbithoweverwasthevehicle’sbrain.ThiswasdesignedandbuiltbytheStanfordArtificialIntelligenceLaboratorySAIL. Stanley’sbrainconsistsofsixtop-of-the-rangePentiumchipswiredcollaborativelytogether.Itisprogrammedwithspecialsoftwarethatisabletolearnfromitsmistakes.Thissoftwaremasteredthetricksofcollision-avoidanceinaseriesofdeserttestruns’conductedbeforetheracestarted. LikeallbrainsStanley’shasarangeofsensoryinputstoprocess.AglobalpositioningsystemGPSreceivertellsitwhereontheEarth’ssurfaceitis.Televisioncamerasradarandfourlaserbaseddistancemonitorstellitwhatitssurroundingsarelike.BycomparingitsGPSlocationwithitspre-programmeddestinationannouncedonlyafewhoursbeforetheracebeganitknewwhichwayitwantedtogo.Andbystudyingitssurroundingsitcouldworkoutwhatlookedlikethesafestroutethatwasalsoinapproximatelytherightdirection. AlthoughStanleycarriedoffthelaurelstheotherfourfinishersdidrespectably.SandstormmanagedatimejusttenminutesbehindthewinnerwhilehersistervehicleHighlandercameintenminutesafterthat.GrayBotandTerraMaxtheothertwocourse-completerscameinatsevenhours30minutesand12hours51minutesrespectively. Sosmartautonomousvehiclescanindeedfindtheirwayacrossseveralhundredkilometresofdesert.ThequestioniswhatnextDARPA’sanswerofcoursewillbetogodownthemilitaryroute.ButthissortoftechnologyhasobviouscivilianapplicationsaswellasSebastianThruntheheadofbothSAILandtheStanfordracingteamiskeentoemphasize. DrThrunthinksthatitcouldleadtoself-drivingroadvehicleswithin30yearsand--moreimmediately-togreatlyimprovedcollision-avoidancesystems.WhetherthefreewaysofCaliforniawillproveaseasytonavigateasthegulchesofNevadathoughremainstobeseen. DrThrunstronglyholdthattheautonomousvehicles
Policy-makersandthemediaparticularlyintheUnitedStatesfrequentlyassertthatclimatescienceishighlyuncertain.Somehaveusedthisasanargumentagainstadoptingstrongmeasurestoreducegreenhousegasemissions.ForexamplewhilediscussingamajorU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyreportontherisksofclimatechangethen-EPAadministratorChristineWhitmanargued"Asthereportwentthroughreviewtherewaslessconsensusonthescienceandconclusionsonclimatechange".Somecorporationswhoserevenuesmightheadverselyaffectedbycontrolsoncarbondioxideemissionshavealsoallegedmajoruncertaintiesinthescience.41.__________________. ThescientificconsensusisclearlyexpressedinthereportsoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIPCC.Createdin1988bytheWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationandtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgrammeIPCC’spurposeistoevaluatethestateofclimatescienceasabasisforinformedpolicyactionprimarilyonthebasisofpeer-reviewedandpublishedscientificliterature. InitsmostrecentassessmentIPCCstatesunequivocallythattheconsensusofscientificopinionisthatEarth’sclimateisbeingaffectedbyhumanactivities:"Humanactivities...aremodifyingtheconcentrationofatmosphericconstituents...thatabsorborscatterradiantenergy....Mostoftheobservedwarmingoverthelast50yearsislikelytohavebeenduetotheincreaseingreenhousegasconcentrations". IPCCisnotaloneinitsconclusions.42.__________________.ForexampletheNationalAcademyofSciencesreportClimateChangeScience:AnAnalysisofSomeKeyQuestionsbegins:"GreenhousegasesareaccumulatinginEarth’satmosphereasaresultofhumanactivitiescausingsurfaceairtemperaturesandsubsurfaceoceantemperaturestorise".ThereportexplicitlyaskswhethertheIPCCassessmentisafairsummaryofprofessionalscientificthinkingandanswersyes.43.__________________. Othersagree.TheAmericanMeteorologicalSocietytheAmericanGeophysicalUnionandtheAmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScienceAAASallhaveissuedstatementsinrecentyearsconcludingthattheevidenceforhumanmodificationofclimateiscompelling. Thedraftingofsuchreportsandstatementsinvolvesmanyopportunitiesforcommentcriticismandrevisionanditisnotlikelythattheywoulddivergegreatlyfromtheopinionsofthesocieties’members.Neverthelesstheymightdownplaylegitimatedissentingopinions.44.__________________. The928papersweredividedintosixcategories:explicitendorsementoftheconsensuspositionevaluationofimpactsmitigationproposalsmethodspaleoclimateanalysisandrejectionoftheconsensusposition.Ofallthepapers75%fellintothefirstthreecategorieseitherexplicitlyorimplicitlyacceptingtheconsensusview;25%dealtwithmethodsorpaleoclimatetakingnopositiononcurrentanthropogenicclimatechange.Remarkablynoneofthepapersdisagreedwiththeconsensusposition. 45.__________________. Thisanalysisshowsthatscientistspublishinginthepeer-reviewedliteratureagreewithIPCCtheNationalAcademyofSciencesandthepublicstatementsoftheirprofessionalsocieties.Politicianseconomistsjournalistsandothersmayhavetheimpressionofconfusiondisagreementordiscordamongclimatescientistsbutthatimpressionisincorrect. [A]Manydetailsaboutclimateinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodandthereareamplegroundsforcontinuedresearchtoprovideabetterbasisforunderstandingclimatedynamics. [B]Suchstatementssuggestthattheremightbesubstantivedisagreementinthescientificcommunityabouttherealityofanthropogenicclimatechange.Thisisnotthecase. [C]InrecentyearsallmajorscientificbodiesintheUnitedStateswhosemembers’expertisebearsdirectlyonthematterhaveissuedsimilarstatements. [D]Admittedlyauthorsevaluatingimpactsdevelopingmethodsorstudyingpaleoclimaticchangemightbelievethatcurrentclimatechangeisnatural.Howevernoneofthesepapersarguedthatpoint. [E]Thathypothesiswastestedbyanalyzing928abstractspublishedinreferentscientificjournalsbetween1993and2003andlistedintheISIdatabasewiththekeywords"climatechange". [F]Ifthehistoryofscienceteachesanythingitishumilityandnoonecanbefaultedforfailingtoactonwhatisnotknown. [G]TheIPCC’sconclusionthatmostoftheobservedwarmingofthelast50yearsislikelytohavebeenduetotheincreaseingreenhousegasconcentrationsaccuratelyreflectsthecurrentthinkingofthescientificcommunityonthisissue. 45
Directions: YourfriendXiaoWenfailedthejobinterviewofalargeenterprise.Writealettertoherwiththefollowinginformation. 1wordsofcomforting; 2encouragement;and 3youradvice. Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter.Use"LiMing"instead.
Text3 Thekakapoiswidelyregardedastheworld’smostabsurdbird.Itisaflightlessnight-activeparrotthatlivesinNewZealand.Itisthusaprimeexampleofthesortofevolutionaryexperimentthathappensonislandsthatlackseriouspredators. Nowsadlythekakapopopulationhasbeenreducedtoafewdozenindividuals.Buteffortstopreservethespecieshaveledtoanothersortofexperiment--onethathasproducedthebestevidencesofarforasocalledsex-allocationtheory. BruceRobertsonoftheUniversityofCanterburyandhiscolleagueshavebeenstudyingamystery.Tokeepthekakapopopulationgoingconservationistshavebeenfeedingthebirds--inparticularthefemales--sothattheystayabovetheminimumweighttheyneedtobreed.Thatworkedsplendidlyasfarasitwent.Between1997and2005theadultpopulationrosefrom50to83.Butthesexratiowenthaywire.Those83birdsaredividedinto45malesand38females.Moreoverfemaleswereproducingtwiceasmanysonsasdaughters.Sinceanotherofthekakapo’speculiaritiesisitsbreedingsysteminwhichthemaleplaysnopartinraisingtheyoungthesurvivalprospectsofthespeciesarenotenhancedbythisbiasedsexratio. DrRobertsonsuspectedthatthesexratiowasnotanaccident.Inallspeciesthenumberofdescendantsleftbyindividualmalesismorevariablethanthenumberleftbyindividualfemales.Thatmeansyourdaughtersaremorelikelytohaveatleastsomechildrenthanyoursonsbutsuccessfulsonshavemanymorechildrenthansuccessfuldaughters.Inaspecieslikethekakapowherethemaleshavetodisplaytothefemalesinafashionshowandwhereonlytheshowiestmalesgetpickedtoreproduceitmakessensetohavesonsonlyiftheyarelikelytobethebestmalesaround.Otherwiseitisbettertohavedaughters. Andsoitseemstobewiththekakapo.Byprovisioningthebirdswithasmuchfoodastheycaneatfemaleshavebeenbroughttothepeakofcondition--theidealstatetoproducetop-classsons.Andtheyhavedonesoinabundance. TotestthecorrectnessofthisideaDrRobertsonandhisteamdevisedamoresophisticatedfeedingschedulethattookaccountofeachfemale’sstartingweightandfattenedheruptothepointatwhichshewascapableofreproducingbutnotmuchfurtherTheresultjustpublishedinBiologyLetterswasthatthesexratiosettleddownatamoresensible50:50.Thoughitdidnotactuallydroptofavordaughtersthatisstillanimpressiveagreementwiththeory.Itmightevensavethekakapofromextinction. Whatcanbeinferredfromthedescriptionofkakapo
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 13
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 7
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