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设函数f(x)在[0,+∞)内二阶可导,且f(0)=f’(0)=0,并当x>0时满足 xf"(x)+3x[f’(x)]2≤1-e-x. 求证:当x>0时.
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设函数fx在[ab]上连续在ab上二阶可导且fa=0fb>0f’+a<0证明 在ab内至少存
设fx二阶可导且f0=0令[*]Ⅰ确定a的取值使得gx为连续函数Ⅱ求g’x并讨论函数g’x的连续性
设fx在[ab]上二阶可导且fx<0x0∈[ab]证明fx≤fx0+f’x0x-x0等号成立当且仅当
设函数fx在[ab]上连续在ab上二阶可导且fa=0fb>0f’+a<0证明 在ab内至少存
设函数fx在[01]二阶可导且f0=f’0=f’1=0f1=1.求证存在ξ∈01使|fξ|≥4.
设fx在[0a]上一阶连续可导f0=0在0a内二阶可导且fx>0.证明[*]
设fx在[02]上二阶可导且fx<0f’0=1f’2=-1f0=f2=1证明
设f’x在[ab]上一阶可导在ab内二阶可导fa=fbf’af’b>0证明至少存在一点ξ∈ab使fξ
设函数fx在[0+∞有连续的一阶导数在0+∞二阶可导且f0=f’0=0又当x>0时满足不等式[*]求
设fx二阶可导且f0=f1=0[*].证明存在ξ∈01使得fξ≥8.
设函数fx在[ab]上一阶可导在ab内二阶可导且fa=fb=0f’af’b>0.求证[*]
设fx在[ab]上二阶可导且fx<0x0∈[ab]证明fx≤fx0+f’x0x-x0等号成立当且仅当
设fx在[a+∞内二阶可导f
=A>0,f'(a)<0,f"(x)≤0(x>a),则
设fx在[01]上二阶连续可导且f’0=f’1.证明存在ξ∈01使得
设fx在[01]上二阶连续可导且f’0=f’1.证明存在ξ∈01使得[*]
设fx二阶可导且f0=0令 Ⅰ确定a的取值使得gx为连续函数 Ⅱ求g’x并讨论函数g’x的连续性
设fx在[ab]上连续在ab内二阶可导fa=fb=0且f’+a>0证明存在ξ∈ab使得fa<0
设fx在[0a]上一阶连续可导f0=0在0a内二阶可导且fx>0.证明
设函数fx在[0+∞有连续的一阶导数在0+∞二阶可导且f0=f’0=0又当x>0时满足不等式xfx+
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WhileAmericanshavebecomeevermoredependentuponelectricityintheirdailylivesacrucialpartofthesystemthatsupportstheirwayoflifehasnotkeptup.Yesthecountryhasbuiltmorepowerplants—enoughtocreateaglutofpowerinmostpartsofthecountry.41______. California’sdisastrouspartialenergyderegulationandtheroleplayedbyEnronandotherenergymarketingcompaniesinitspowercrisishaveimpededchangesinthenationalabilitytodeliverpower. 42______.Moreoverthedeficiencyalsoincludesinadequatecoordinationamongtheregionsinmanagingtheflowofelectricity.TheseinterregionalweaknessesaresofarthemostplausibleexplanationfortheblackoutonThursday. 43______.Theproblemiswiththesystemofrulesorganizationandoversightthatgovernsthetransmissionnetworks.Itwassetupforaverydifferenteraandisnowcaughtinadifficulttransition. Thetransmissionnetworkswerebuilttoserveautilitysystembasedonregulatedmonopolies.Intheolddaystherewasnocompetitionforcustomers.Todaythemissionistoconnectbuyersandsellersseekingthebestdealirrespectiveofpoliticalboundariesandlocaljurisdictions. 44______.Yetthepowerindustryisprobablynotevenhalfwaythereinitsshiftfromregulationtothemarketplace.TheCaliforniapowercrisisandthepower-tradingscandalssentregulatorsbacktothedrawingboardslowingthedevelopmentofnewinstitutionsrulesandinvestmenttomakecompetitivemarketswork. 55______. [A]Overallformorethanadecadethepowerindustryhasbeenstrugglingwithhowtomovefromtheoldregulationtothenewmarketplace.Thisshiftwasdrivenbytheviewthathalfacenturyofstateregulationhadproducedpowerpricesthatweretoohighandtoovariedamongstates.FactoriesandjobsweremigratingfromstateswithhighelectricpowerpricestothoseWithlowerprices. [B]ButthetransmissionsystemiscaughtinthemiddleofthestalledderegulationoftheAmericanelectricpowerindustry. [C]Asaresultthedevelopmentoftheregionaltransmissionorganizationsiserratic.Morethanone-thirdofthepowertransmittedisnotunderthecontrolofregionaltransmissionorganizations.Somestatesfearthattheircheappowerwouldbesuckedawaytoothermarkets;othersdonotwanttosubordinatestateauthoritytotheFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission. [D]Itwasunclearwhenthewaterswouldrecedenevermindwhenlifewouldreturntonormal.Powermaynotberestoredforweeks.Lootingtoo.Begantospiraloutofcontrol.Mr.Naginwhosaidthecitymightbeuninhabitableforthreemonthswasforcedtoorderpolicetoconcentrateonstoppingcrimenotsavingpeople. [E]What’spreventinggreaterconnectionandcoordinationbetweenregionsThetechnologyexistsandisavailable;theeconomicbenefitsofrelievingthebottlenecksbetweenregionsfarexceedsthecostsbymanybillionsofdollars. [F]Yetdespiteclaimsinthewakeoflastweek’sblackoutthatthenationhasa"thirdworld"powergridtheregionalnetworksarefirstworld.Butinonecriticalaspectthesystemhasbecomeincreasinglyvulnerable:intheinterconnectionsamongthedifferentregions.Boththenumberandsizeofthewiresonthebordersbetweenregionsareinadequatefortherisingflowofelectricity.Thismissingpartcreatestheworstbottlenecksinthesystem. [G]Sinceenteringtheoverseaspowermarketin1993KEPCOhasestablishedseveralachievementsthroughitsdistinguishedinternationalbusinessstrategiestopromoteelectricpowerdevelopmentoftheworld.Basedonitslongexperienceandadvancedtechnologygainedover100yearsinKoreaKEPCOcontinuestobuildupitsoutstandingreputationasaleadingutilitycompany.MoreoverKEPCOembraceschallengesandmakesboldstepsintowidermarketsintheworldbyitsflairfordynamicactivitieswhichisfavorablyreceivedinthePhilippinesChinaVietnamandLibya. 41
Sometimeswehavespecificproblemswithourmother;sometimeslifewithhercanjustbehardwork.Iftherearedifficultiesinyour1it’sbesttodealwiththem2rememberthatany3shouldbedone4personorbyletter.Thetelephoneisnotagood5becauseitistooeasy6eithersideto7theconversation. Explaintoher8youfinddifficultinyourrelationshipandthen9somenewarrangementsthatyouthinkwouldestablisha10balancebetweenyou.Sometimeswehold11fromestablishingsuchboundariesbecauseweareafraidthatdoing12impliesweare13her.Weneedtorememberthatbeing14fromourmotherdoesnot15meanthatWenolongerloveher.Iftheconflictis16andyoucannotfindawayto17ityoumightdecidetogiveupyourrelationshipwithyourmotherforawhile.Someofmypatientshad18"trialseparations".The19allowedthingstosimmerdownenabling20. 7
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WhileAmericanshavebecomeevermoredependentuponelectricityintheirdailylivesacrucialpartofthesystemthatsupportstheirwayoflifehasnotkeptup.Yesthecountryhasbuiltmorepowerplants—enoughtocreateaglutofpowerinmostpartsofthecountry.41______. California’sdisastrouspartialenergyderegulationandtheroleplayedbyEnronandotherenergymarketingcompaniesinitspowercrisishaveimpededchangesinthenationalabilitytodeliverpower. 42______.Moreoverthedeficiencyalsoincludesinadequatecoordinationamongtheregionsinmanagingtheflowofelectricity.TheseinterregionalweaknessesaresofarthemostplausibleexplanationfortheblackoutonThursday. 43______.Theproblemiswiththesystemofrulesorganizationandoversightthatgovernsthetransmissionnetworks.Itwassetupforaverydifferenteraandisnowcaughtinadifficulttransition. Thetransmissionnetworkswerebuilttoserveautilitysystembasedonregulatedmonopolies.Intheolddaystherewasnocompetitionforcustomers.Todaythemissionistoconnectbuyersandsellersseekingthebestdealirrespectiveofpoliticalboundariesandlocaljurisdictions. 44______.Yetthepowerindustryisprobablynotevenhalfwaythereinitsshiftfromregulationtothemarketplace.TheCaliforniapowercrisisandthepower-tradingscandalssentregulatorsbacktothedrawingboardslowingthedevelopmentofnewinstitutionsrulesandinvestmenttomakecompetitivemarketswork. 55______. [A]Overallformorethanadecadethepowerindustryhasbeenstrugglingwithhowtomovefromtheoldregulationtothenewmarketplace.Thisshiftwasdrivenbytheviewthathalfacenturyofstateregulationhadproducedpowerpricesthatweretoohighandtoovariedamongstates.FactoriesandjobsweremigratingfromstateswithhighelectricpowerpricestothoseWithlowerprices. [B]ButthetransmissionsystemiscaughtinthemiddleofthestalledderegulationoftheAmericanelectricpowerindustry. [C]Asaresultthedevelopmentoftheregionaltransmissionorganizationsiserratic.Morethanone-thirdofthepowertransmittedisnotunderthecontrolofregionaltransmissionorganizations.Somestatesfearthattheircheappowerwouldbesuckedawaytoothermarkets;othersdonotwanttosubordinatestateauthoritytotheFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission. [D]Itwasunclearwhenthewaterswouldrecedenevermindwhenlifewouldreturntonormal.Powermaynotberestoredforweeks.Lootingtoo.Begantospiraloutofcontrol.Mr.Naginwhosaidthecitymightbeuninhabitableforthreemonthswasforcedtoorderpolicetoconcentrateonstoppingcrimenotsavingpeople. [E]What’spreventinggreaterconnectionandcoordinationbetweenregionsThetechnologyexistsandisavailable;theeconomicbenefitsofrelievingthebottlenecksbetweenregionsfarexceedsthecostsbymanybillionsofdollars. [F]Yetdespiteclaimsinthewakeoflastweek’sblackoutthatthenationhasa"thirdworld"powergridtheregionalnetworksarefirstworld.Butinonecriticalaspectthesystemhasbecomeincreasinglyvulnerable:intheinterconnectionsamongthedifferentregions.Boththenumberandsizeofthewiresonthebordersbetweenregionsareinadequatefortherisingflowofelectricity.Thismissingpartcreatestheworstbottlenecksinthesystem. [G]Sinceenteringtheoverseaspowermarketin1993KEPCOhasestablishedseveralachievementsthroughitsdistinguishedinternationalbusinessstrategiestopromoteelectricpowerdevelopmentoftheworld.Basedonitslongexperienceandadvancedtechnologygainedover100yearsinKoreaKEPCOcontinuestobuildupitsoutstandingreputationasaleadingutilitycompany.MoreoverKEPCOembraceschallengesandmakesboldstepsintowidermarketsintheworldbyitsflairfordynamicactivitieswhichisfavorablyreceivedinthePhilippinesChinaVietnamandLibya. 43
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[A]DrDanielStanleyanoceanographerhasfoundvolcanicshardsinEgyptthathebelievesarelinkedtotheexplosion.ComputersimulationsbyMikeRampinoaclimatemodelerfromNewYorkUniversityshowthattheresultingashcloudcouldhaveplungedtheareaintodarknessaswellasgeneratinglightningandhailtwoofthe10plagues. [B]Thecloudcouldhavealsoreducedtherainfallcausingadrought.IftheNilehadthenbeenpoisonedbytheeffectsoftheeruptionpollutioncouldhaveturneditredashappenedinarecentenvironmentaldisasterinAmerica.Thesamepollutioncouldhavedrivenmillionsoffrogsontothelandthesecondplague.Onlandthefrogswoulddieremovingtheonlyobstacletoanexplosionoffliesandlice—thethirdandfourthplagues.Thefliescouldhavetransmittedfataldiseasestocattlethefifthplagueandboilsandblisterstohumansthesixthplague. [C]MoseswhichwillbebroadcastinDecember2002willsuggestthatmuchoftheBiblestorycanheexplainedbyasinglenaturaldisasterahugevolcaniceruptionontheGreekislandofSantoriniinthe16thcenturyBC. [D]Thehour-longdocumentaryarguesthateventhestoryofthepartingoftheRedSeawhichallowedMosestoleadtheHebrewstosafetywhilethepursuingEgyptianarmywasdrownedmayhaveitsoriginsintheeruption.Itrepeatsthetheorythat"RedSea"isamistranslationoftheSeaofReedsamuchshallowerswamp. [E]TheprogrammetellsthestoryofhowMosesledtheHebrewsoutofEgyptafteraseriesofplagueshaddevastatedthecountry.Butitalsousesnewscientificresearchtoarguethatmanyoftheeventssurroundingtheexoduscouldhavebeentriggeredbytheeruptionwhichwouldhavebeenathousandtimesmorepowerfulthananuclearbomb. [F]ComputersimulationsshowthattheSantorinieruptioncouldhavetriggereda600ft-hightidalwavetravelingatabout400milesanhourwhichwouldhavebeen6fthighandahundredmileslongwhenitreachedtheEgyptiandelta.Suchaneventwouldhavebeenrememberedforgenerationsandmayhaveprovidedtheinspirationforthestory. [G]FreshevidencethattheBiblicalplaguesandthepartingoftheRedSeawerenaturaleventsratherthanmythsormiraclesistobepresentedinanewBBCdocumentary. Order: 41
In1929JohnD.Rockefellerdecideditwastimetosellshareswhenevenashoe-shineboyofferedhimasharetip.DuringthepastweekTheEconomist’seconomicseditorhasbeen-advisedbyataxidriveraplumberandahairdresserthatyoucan’tgowronginvestinginhousing—themoreyouownthebetter.IsthisasignthatitistimetogetoutAttheveryleastashousepricesaroundtheworldclimbtoeverloftierheightsandmoreandmorepeoplejumpontothebuy-to-letladderitistimetoexposesomeofthefallaciesregularlytrottedoutbysomanyself-appointedhousingexperts.Onecommonerroristhathousepricesmustcontinuetorisebecauseofalimitedsupplyofland.ForinstanceitisarguedthathousepriceswillalwaysriseinLondonbecauselotsofpeoplewanttolivehere.Butthisconfusesthelevelofpriceswiththeirrateofchange.Homepricesareboundtobehigherinbigcitiesbecauseoflandscarcitybutthisdoesnotguaranteethaturbanhousepriceswillkeeprisingindefinitely—justlookatTokyo’shugeprice-dropssince1990.Andthoughitistruethatafixedsupplyofhomesmaypushuphousepricesifthepopulationisrisingthiswouldimplyasteadyriseinpricesnotthe20%annualjumpsofrecentyears.Asecondflawedargumentisthatlowinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperandsopushupdemandandprices.Lowerinterestratesmayhaveallowedsomepeoplewhootherwisecouldnothaveaffordedamortgagetobuyahome.Butmanyborrowerswhothinkmortgagesarecheaperaresufferingfrommoneyillusion.Interestratesarenotverylowinrealinflation-adjustedterms.Initialinterestpaymentsmayseemlowinrelationtoincomebutbecauseinflationisalsolowitwillnoterodetherealburdenofdebtasswiftlyasitoncedid.Soinlateryearsmortgagepaymentswillbemuchlargerinrealterms.Toarguethatlownominalinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperislikearguingthatacarloanpaidoffoverfouryearsischeaperthanonerepaidovertwoyears.FallacynumberthreeisafavouriteclaimofAlanGreenspanchairmanofAmerica’sFederalReserve.Thisisthatpricebubblesarelesslikelyinhousingthaninthestockmarketbecausehighertransactioncostsdiscouragespeculation.Infactseveralstudieshaveshownthatbothintheoryandinpracticebubblesaremorelikelyinhousingthaninshares.AstudybytheIMFfindsthatasharpriseinhousepricesisfarmorelikelytobefollowedbyabustthanisashare-priceboom.Theauthorofthetextmakesacomparisonin______.
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Sometimeswehavespecificproblemswithourmother;sometimeslifewithhercanjustbehardwork.Iftherearedifficultiesinyour1it’sbesttodealwiththem2rememberthatany3shouldbedone4personorbyletter.Thetelephoneisnotagood5becauseitistooeasy6eithersideto7theconversation. Explaintoher8youfinddifficultinyourrelationshipandthen9somenewarrangementsthatyouthinkwouldestablisha10balancebetweenyou.Sometimeswehold11fromestablishingsuchboundariesbecauseweareafraidthatdoing12impliesweare13her.Weneedtorememberthatbeing14fromourmotherdoesnot15meanthatWenolongerloveher.Iftheconflictis16andyoucannotfindawayto17ityoumightdecidetogiveupyourrelationshipwithyourmotherforawhile.Someofmypatientshad18"trialseparations".The19allowedthingstosimmerdownenabling20. 3
Sometimeswehavespecificproblemswithourmother;sometimeslifewithhercanjustbehardwork.Iftherearedifficultiesinyour1it’sbesttodealwiththem2rememberthatany3shouldbedone4personorbyletter.Thetelephoneisnotagood5becauseitistooeasy6eithersideto7theconversation. Explaintoher8youfinddifficultinyourrelationshipandthen9somenewarrangementsthatyouthinkwouldestablisha10balancebetweenyou.Sometimeswehold11fromestablishingsuchboundariesbecauseweareafraidthatdoing12impliesweare13her.Weneedtorememberthatbeing14fromourmotherdoesnot15meanthatWenolongerloveher.Iftheconflictis16andyoucannotfindawayto17ityoumightdecidetogiveupyourrelationshipwithyourmotherforawhile.Someofmypatientshad18"trialseparations".The19allowedthingstosimmerdownenabling20. 13
Companieshaveembarkedonwhatlookslikethebeginningsofare-runofthemergersandacquisitionsM&Awavethatdefinedthesecondbubblyhalfofthe1990s.Thatperiodreadersmightrecallwascharacterizedbyacollectivesplurgethatsawthecreationofsomeofthemostindebtedcompaniesinhistorymanyofwhichlaterwentbankruptorwerethemselvesbrokenup.WildbiddingfortelecomsinternetandmediaassetsnottomentionthemadnessthatwasDaimler’s$40billionmotoringtakeoverin1998-1999ofChryslerortheTime-Warner/AOLmega-mergerin2000helpedtogivemergersathoroughlybadname.AconsensusemergedthatM&Awasagreatwayforinvestmentbankstoreaprichfeesandasurewayforambitiousmanagerstobetrayinvestorsbytrashingthevalueoftheirshares.NowM&Aisback.ItsreturnisaglobalphenomenonbutitisperhapsmoststrikinginEuropewheresofarthisyeartherehasbeenastreamofdealsworthmorethan$600billionintotalaround40%higherthaninthesameperiodof2004.ThelatesteffortcamethisweekwhenFrance’sSaint-Gobainabuilding-materialsfirmunveiledthedetailsofits£3.6billion$6.5billionhostilebidforBPBaBritishrival.Inthefirsthalfoftheyearcross-borderactivitywasupthreefoldoverthesameperiodlastyear.EvenFranceTelecomwhichwasleftalmostbankruptattheendofthelastmergerwaverecentlyboughtAmenaaSpanishmobileoperator.Shareholder’sapprovalofallthesedealsraisesaninterestingquestionforcompanieseverywhere:areinvestorsrighttothinkthinthesemergersaremorelikelytosucceedthanearlieronesTherearetwoanswers.Thefirstisthatpastmergersmayhavebeenjudgedtooharshly.ThesecondisthatthepresentrashofEuropeandealsdoeslookmorerationalbut—andthecaveatiscrucial—onlysofar.Thepatternmaynothold.M&A’spoorreputationstemsnotonlyfromthestringofspectacularfailuresinthe1990sbutalsofromstudiesthatshowedvaluedestructionforacquiringshareholdersin80%ofdeals.Butmorerecentstudiesbyeconomistshaveintroducedanoteofcaution.Investorsshouldlookatthenumberofdealsthatsucceedorfailtypicallymeasuredbytheimpactonthesharepriceratherthanasyoumightthinkweighingthembysize.ForexamplenoonedoubtsthattheDaimler-Chryslermergerdestroyedvalue.ThecombinedmarketvalueofthetwofirmsisstillbelowthatofDaimleralonebeforethedeal.ThissingledealaccountedforhalfofallGermanM&Aactivitybyvaluein1998and1999andprobablydominatedpeople’sthinkingaboutmergerstothesamedegree.Throwinafewothersuchmonstersanditisnowonderthatbroadstudieshavetendedtofindthatmergersareabadidea.Thetruepictureismorecomplicated.Thepatterninthethirdparagraphmostprobablydenotes______.
In1929JohnD.Rockefellerdecideditwastimetosellshareswhenevenashoe-shineboyofferedhimasharetip.DuringthepastweekTheEconomist’seconomicseditorhasbeen-advisedbyataxidriveraplumberandahairdresserthatyoucan’tgowronginvestinginhousing—themoreyouownthebetter.IsthisasignthatitistimetogetoutAttheveryleastashousepricesaroundtheworldclimbtoeverloftierheightsandmoreandmorepeoplejumpontothebuy-to-letladderitistimetoexposesomeofthefallaciesregularlytrottedoutbysomanyself-appointedhousingexperts.Onecommonerroristhathousepricesmustcontinuetorisebecauseofalimitedsupplyofland.ForinstanceitisarguedthathousepriceswillalwaysriseinLondonbecauselotsofpeoplewanttolivehere.Butthisconfusesthelevelofpriceswiththeirrateofchange.Homepricesareboundtobehigherinbigcitiesbecauseoflandscarcitybutthisdoesnotguaranteethaturbanhousepriceswillkeeprisingindefinitely—justlookatTokyo’shugeprice-dropssince1990.Andthoughitistruethatafixedsupplyofhomesmaypushuphousepricesifthepopulationisrisingthiswouldimplyasteadyriseinpricesnotthe20%annualjumpsofrecentyears.Asecondflawedargumentisthatlowinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperandsopushupdemandandprices.Lowerinterestratesmayhaveallowedsomepeoplewhootherwisecouldnothaveaffordedamortgagetobuyahome.Butmanyborrowerswhothinkmortgagesarecheaperaresufferingfrommoneyillusion.Interestratesarenotverylowinrealinflation-adjustedterms.Initialinterestpaymentsmayseemlowinrelationtoincomebutbecauseinflationisalsolowitwillnoterodetherealburdenofdebtasswiftlyasitoncedid.Soinlateryearsmortgagepaymentswillbemuchlargerinrealterms.Toarguethatlownominalinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperislikearguingthatacarloanpaidoffoverfouryearsischeaperthanonerepaidovertwoyears.FallacynumberthreeisafavouriteclaimofAlanGreenspanchairmanofAmerica’sFederalReserve.Thisisthatpricebubblesarelesslikelyinhousingthaninthestockmarketbecausehighertransactioncostsdiscouragespeculation.Infactseveralstudieshaveshownthatbothintheoryandinpracticebubblesaremorelikelyinhousingthaninshares.AstudybytheIMFfindsthatasharpriseinhousepricesisfarmorelikelytobefollowedbyabustthanisashare-priceboom.Towhichofthefollowingisauthorlikelytoagree
In1929JohnD.Rockefellerdecideditwastimetosellshareswhenevenashoe-shineboyofferedhimasharetip.DuringthepastweekTheEconomist’seconomicseditorhasbeen-advisedbyataxidriveraplumberandahairdresserthatyoucan’tgowronginvestinginhousing—themoreyouownthebetter.IsthisasignthatitistimetogetoutAttheveryleastashousepricesaroundtheworldclimbtoeverloftierheightsandmoreandmorepeoplejumpontothebuy-to-letladderitistimetoexposesomeofthefallaciesregularlytrottedoutbysomanyself-appointedhousingexperts.Onecommonerroristhathousepricesmustcontinuetorisebecauseofalimitedsupplyofland.ForinstanceitisarguedthathousepriceswillalwaysriseinLondonbecauselotsofpeoplewanttolivehere.Butthisconfusesthelevelofpriceswiththeirrateofchange.Homepricesareboundtobehigherinbigcitiesbecauseoflandscarcitybutthisdoesnotguaranteethaturbanhousepriceswillkeeprisingindefinitely—justlookatTokyo’shugeprice-dropssince1990.Andthoughitistruethatafixedsupplyofhomesmaypushuphousepricesifthepopulationisrisingthiswouldimplyasteadyriseinpricesnotthe20%annualjumpsofrecentyears.Asecondflawedargumentisthatlowinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperandsopushupdemandandprices.Lowerinterestratesmayhaveallowedsomepeoplewhootherwisecouldnothaveaffordedamortgagetobuyahome.Butmanyborrowerswhothinkmortgagesarecheaperaresufferingfrommoneyillusion.Interestratesarenotverylowinrealinflation-adjustedterms.Initialinterestpaymentsmayseemlowinrelationtoincomebutbecauseinflationisalsolowitwillnoterodetherealburdenofdebtasswiftlyasitoncedid.Soinlateryearsmortgagepaymentswillbemuchlargerinrealterms.Toarguethatlownominalinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperislikearguingthatacarloanpaidoffoverfouryearsischeaperthanonerepaidovertwoyears.FallacynumberthreeisafavouriteclaimofAlanGreenspanchairmanofAmerica’sFederalReserve.Thisisthatpricebubblesarelesslikelyinhousingthaninthestockmarketbecausehighertransactioncostsdiscouragespeculation.Infactseveralstudieshaveshownthatbothintheoryandinpracticebubblesaremorelikelyinhousingthaninshares.AstudybytheIMFfindsthatasharpriseinhousepricesisfarmorelikelytobefollowedbyabustthanisashare-priceboom.ThetermfallaciesLine6Paragraph1mostprobablymeans______.
Apairofdicerolledagainandagainwilleventuallyproducetwosixes.Similarlythevirusthatcausesinfluenzaisconstantlychangingatrandomandonedaywillmutateinawaythatwillenableittoinfectbillionsofpeopleandtokillmillions.Manyexpertsnowbelieveaglobaloutbreakofpandemicfluisoverdueandthatthenextonecouldbeasbadastheonein1918whichkilledsomewherebetween25mand50mpeople.Todayhoweveradvancesinmedicineofferrealhopethatanothersuchoutbreakcanbecontained—ifgovernmentsstartpreparingnow.Newresearchpublishedthisweeksuggeststhatarelativelysmallstockpileofanantiviraldrug—aslittleas3mdoses—couldbeenoughtolimitsharplyaflupandemicifthedrugsweredeployedquicklytopeopleintheareasurroundingtheinitialoutbreak.Thedrug’smanufacturerRocheistalkingtotheWorldHealthOrganisationaboutdonatingsuchastockpile.Thisisgoodnews.ButmuchmoreneedstobedoneespeciallywithanastystrainofavianfluspreadinginAsiawhichcouldmutateintoathreattohumans.SincetheSARSoutbreakin2003afewcountrieshavedevelopedplansinpreparationforsimilarepisodes.Butprogresshasbeenshamefullypatchyandthereisstillfartoolittleinternationalcoordination.Aglobalstockpileofdrugsalonewouldnotbemuchusewithoutanadequatesystemofsurveillancetoidentifyearlycasesandawayofdeliveringtreatmentquickly.Ifanoutbreakoccurredinaborderregionforexampleaswiftresponsewouldmostlikelydependonprioragreementsbetweendifferentcountriesaboutquarantineandcontainment.Reachingsuchagreementsisrarelyeasybutthatmakesthetaskallthemoreurgent.Richcountriestendtobebetterpreparedthanpooronesbutthisshouldbenoconsolationtothem.Fludoesnotrespectborders.Itisineveryone’sinteresttomakesurethatdevelopingcountriesespeciallyinAsiaarealsowellprepared.Manymaybridleatinterferencefromoutside.Butifrichernationswerewillingtodonateanti-viraldrugsandguaranteeasupplyofanyvaccinethatbecomesavailablepoorernationsmightbewillingtoreachagreementsoversurveillanceandpreparedness.Simplysortingoutafewdetailsnowwillhavelivesandrecriminationslater.WilltherebeenoughventilatorsmakesanddrugsWherewillpeoplebetreatedifthehospitalsoverflowWillfoodbedeliveredasnormalToomanycountrieshavenoanswerstothesequestions.Thespeedo{remedydispatchisofimportanceto______.
Apairofdicerolledagainandagainwilleventuallyproducetwosixes.Similarlythevirusthatcausesinfluenzaisconstantlychangingatrandomandonedaywillmutateinawaythatwillenableittoinfectbillionsofpeopleandtokillmillions.Manyexpertsnowbelieveaglobaloutbreakofpandemicfluisoverdueandthatthenextonecouldbeasbadastheonein1918whichkilledsomewherebetween25mand50mpeople.Todayhoweveradvancesinmedicineofferrealhopethatanothersuchoutbreakcanbecontained—ifgovernmentsstartpreparingnow.Newresearchpublishedthisweeksuggeststhatarelativelysmallstockpileofanantiviraldrug—aslittleas3mdoses—couldbeenoughtolimitsharplyaflupandemicifthedrugsweredeployedquicklytopeopleintheareasurroundingtheinitialoutbreak.Thedrug’smanufacturerRocheistalkingtotheWorldHealthOrganisationaboutdonatingsuchastockpile.Thisisgoodnews.ButmuchmoreneedstobedoneespeciallywithanastystrainofavianfluspreadinginAsiawhichcouldmutateintoathreattohumans.SincetheSARSoutbreakin2003afewcountrieshavedevelopedplansinpreparationforsimilarepisodes.Butprogresshasbeenshamefullypatchyandthereisstillfartoolittleinternationalcoordination.Aglobalstockpileofdrugsalonewouldnotbemuchusewithoutanadequatesystemofsurveillancetoidentifyearlycasesandawayofdeliveringtreatmentquickly.Ifanoutbreakoccurredinaborderregionforexampleaswiftresponsewouldmostlikelydependonprioragreementsbetweendifferentcountriesaboutquarantineandcontainment.Reachingsuchagreementsisrarelyeasybutthatmakesthetaskallthemoreurgent.Richcountriestendtobebetterpreparedthanpooronesbutthisshouldbenoconsolationtothem.Fludoesnotrespectborders.Itisineveryone’sinteresttomakesurethatdevelopingcountriesespeciallyinAsiaarealsowellprepared.Manymaybridleatinterferencefromoutside.Butifrichernationswerewillingtodonateanti-viraldrugsandguaranteeasupplyofanyvaccinethatbecomesavailablepoorernationsmightbewillingtoreachagreementsoversurveillanceandpreparedness.Simplysortingoutafewdetailsnowwillhavelivesandrecriminationslater.WilltherebeenoughventilatorsmakesanddrugsWherewillpeoplebetreatedifthehospitalsoverflowWillfoodbedeliveredasnormalToomanycountrieshavenoanswerstothesequestions.Thebesttitleforthetextwouldbe______.
Directions:Writeapostertoyourschoolmatesinformingthemofanewbooktobereleased.Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter;useLiMinginstead.Donotwritetheaddress.
Sometimeswehavespecificproblemswithourmother;sometimeslifewithhercanjustbehardwork.Iftherearedifficultiesinyour1it’sbesttodealwiththem2rememberthatany3shouldbedone4personorbyletter.Thetelephoneisnotagood5becauseitistooeasy6eithersideto7theconversation. Explaintoher8youfinddifficultinyourrelationshipandthen9somenewarrangementsthatyouthinkwouldestablisha10balancebetweenyou.Sometimeswehold11fromestablishingsuchboundariesbecauseweareafraidthatdoing12impliesweare13her.Weneedtorememberthatbeing14fromourmotherdoesnot15meanthatWenolongerloveher.Iftheconflictis16andyoucannotfindawayto17ityoumightdecidetogiveupyourrelationshipwithyourmotherforawhile.Someofmypatientshad18"trialseparations".The19allowedthingstosimmerdownenabling20. 19
Electionsoftentellyoumoreaboutwhatpeopleareagainstthanwhattheyarefor.SoitiswiththeEuropeanonesthattookplacelastweekinall25EuropeanUnionmembercountries.Theseelectionswidelytrumpetedastheworld’sbiggest-evermultinationaldemocraticvotewerefoughtforthemostpartas25separatenationalcontestswhichmakesittrickytopickoutmanycommonthemes.Butthestrongestareundoubtedlynegative.Europe’svotersareangryanddisillusioned—andtheyhavedemonstratedtheirangeranddisillusioninthreemainways.Themostobviouswasbyabstaining.Theaverageoverallturnoutwasjustover45%bysomemarginthelowesteverrecordedforelectionstotheEuropeanParliament.Andthataveragedisguisessomebigvariations:Italyforexamplenotchedupover70o//00butSwedenmanagedonly37%.MostdepressingofallatleasttobelieversintheEuropeanprojectwastheextremelylowvoteinmanyofthenewmembercountriesfromcentralEuropewhichaccountedforthewholeofthefallinturnoutsince1999.InthebiggestPolandonlyjustoverafifthoftheelectorateturnedouttovote.OnlyayearagocentralEuropeansvotedinlargenumberstojointheEUwhichtheydidonMay1st.ThattheyabstainedinsuchlargenumbersintheEuropeanelectionspointstoearlydisillusionwiththeEuropeanUnion—aswellastoawidespreadfeelingsharedintheoldmembercountriesaswellthattheEuropeanParliamentdoesnotmatter.DisillusionwithEuropewasalsoabigfactorinthesecondwayinwhichvotersprotestedwhichwasbysupportingaragbagofpopulistnationalistandexplicitlyanti-EUparties.Theserangedfromthe16%whobackedtheUKIndependencePartywhosedeclaredpolicyistowithdrawfromtheEUandwhoseleadersseetheirmissionaswreckingtheEuropeanParliamenttothe14%whovotedforSweden’sJunelistandthe27%ofPoleswhobackedoneoftwoanti-EUpartiestheLeagueofCatholicFamiliesandSelf-defense.TheseresultshavereturnedmanymoreEuroscepticsandtrouble-makerstotheparliamentonsomemeasuresoveraquarterofthenewMEPSwillbelongtotheawkwardsquad.ThatisnotabadthinghoweverforitwillmaketheparliamentmorerepresentativeofEuropeanpublicopinion.ButitisthethirdtargetofEuropeanvoters’irethatisperhapsthemostimmediatelysignificant:thefactthatinmanyEUcountriesoldandnewtheychosetovoteheavilyagainsttheirowngovernments.Thisanti-incumbentvotewasstrongalmosteverywherebutitwasmostpronouncedinBritaintheCzechRepublicGermanyPolandandSweden.TheleadersofallthefourbiggestEuropeanUnioncountriesTonyBlairinBritainJacquesChiracinFranceGerhardSchroderinGermanyandSilvioBerlusconiinItalywereeachgivenabloodynosebytheirvoters.ThebigquestionnowishowEurope’sleadersshouldrespondtothis.ByasublimeorterriblecoincidencesoonaftertheelectionsandjustasTheEconomistwasgoingtopresstheyweregatheringinBrusselsforacrucialsummitatwhichtheyareduetoagreeanewconstitutionaltreatyfortheEUandtoselectanewpresidentfortheEuropeanCommission.GoingintothemeetingmostEUheadsofgovernmentseemeddeterminedtopressaheadwiththisagendaregardlessoftheEuropeanelections—eventhoughtheatmosphereaftertheresultsmaymakeitharderforthemtostrikedeals.ThewordireLine1Paragraph4mostprobablymeans______.
Manycountrieshaveatraditionofinvitingforeignerstorulethem.TheEnglishcalledinWilliamofOrangein1688anddependingonyourinterpretationofhistoryWilliamofNormandyin1066.Bothdidratheragoodjob.ReturningthecomplimentAlbaniaaskedawell-bredEnglishmancalledAubgreyHerberttobetheirkinginthe1920s.Herefused—andtheyendedupwithseveralcovescalledZog.Americathecountryofimmigrantshasnotruckwithimportedforeigntalent.ArticletwooftheConstitutionsaysthatnopersonexceptanatural-borncitizen...shallbeeligibletotheofficeofthepresident.Thisisnowbeingchallengedbyaparticularlyirresistibleimmigrant:ArnoldSchwarzenegger.BarelyayearhaspassedsincetheerstwhilecyborgswepttovictoryinCalifornia’srecallelectionyetthereisalreadyanAmend-for-ArnoldcampaigncollectingsignaturestolettheAustrian-borngovernorhaveagoattheWhiteHouse.GeorgeBushseniorhasweighedinonhisbehalf.ThereareseveralArnoldamendmentsinCongress:oneallowsforeignerswhohavebeennaturalizedcitizensfor20yearstobecomepresident.TheAustrianbecameAmericanin1983.Itiseasytodismissthehooplaasanotherregrettableexampleofloopycelebritypolitics.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasmadeadecentstartasgovernorbuthehasdonelittleasyettochangethestructureofhisdysfunctionalstate.IndeedevenifthelawwerechangedhecouldwellbeelbowedasidebyanotherincomerthistimefromCanada:theDemocraticgovernorofMichiganJenniferGranholmwhoappearstohavefewerskeletonsinherclosetthanthehedonisticactor.MoreoverchangingtheAmericanconstitutionisnododdle.Ithashappenedonly17timessince1791whenthefirsttenamendmentswerecodifiedasthebillofrights.Tochangetheconstitutionanamendmenthastobeapprovedbytwo-thirdsofbothhousesofCongressandthentoberatifiedbythree-quartersofthe50states.TheArnoldamendmentishardlyinthesamecategoryasabolishingslaveryorgivingwomenthevote.AndassomewagspointoutAustrianimportshaveaprettydodgyrecordofrunningmilitarysuperpowers.ThephrasehasnotruckwithLine1Paragraph2mostprobablymeans______.
WhileAmericanshavebecomeevermoredependentuponelectricityintheirdailylivesacrucialpartofthesystemthatsupportstheirwayoflifehasnotkeptup.Yesthecountryhasbuiltmorepowerplants—enoughtocreateaglutofpowerinmostpartsofthecountry.41______. California’sdisastrouspartialenergyderegulationandtheroleplayedbyEnronandotherenergymarketingcompaniesinitspowercrisishaveimpededchangesinthenationalabilitytodeliverpower. 42______.Moreoverthedeficiencyalsoincludesinadequatecoordinationamongtheregionsinmanagingtheflowofelectricity.TheseinterregionalweaknessesaresofarthemostplausibleexplanationfortheblackoutonThursday. 43______.Theproblemiswiththesystemofrulesorganizationandoversightthatgovernsthetransmissionnetworks.Itwassetupforaverydifferenteraandisnowcaughtinadifficulttransition. Thetransmissionnetworkswerebuilttoserveautilitysystembasedonregulatedmonopolies.Intheolddaystherewasnocompetitionforcustomers.Todaythemissionistoconnectbuyersandsellersseekingthebestdealirrespectiveofpoliticalboundariesandlocaljurisdictions. 44______.Yetthepowerindustryisprobablynotevenhalfwaythereinitsshiftfromregulationtothemarketplace.TheCaliforniapowercrisisandthepower-tradingscandalssentregulatorsbacktothedrawingboardslowingthedevelopmentofnewinstitutionsrulesandinvestmenttomakecompetitivemarketswork. 55______. [A]Overallformorethanadecadethepowerindustryhasbeenstrugglingwithhowtomovefromtheoldregulationtothenewmarketplace.Thisshiftwasdrivenbytheviewthathalfacenturyofstateregulationhadproducedpowerpricesthatweretoohighandtoovariedamongstates.FactoriesandjobsweremigratingfromstateswithhighelectricpowerpricestothoseWithlowerprices. [B]ButthetransmissionsystemiscaughtinthemiddleofthestalledderegulationoftheAmericanelectricpowerindustry. [C]Asaresultthedevelopmentoftheregionaltransmissionorganizationsiserratic.Morethanone-thirdofthepowertransmittedisnotunderthecontrolofregionaltransmissionorganizations.Somestatesfearthattheircheappowerwouldbesuckedawaytoothermarkets;othersdonotwanttosubordinatestateauthoritytotheFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission. [D]Itwasunclearwhenthewaterswouldrecedenevermindwhenlifewouldreturntonormal.Powermaynotberestoredforweeks.Lootingtoo.Begantospiraloutofcontrol.Mr.Naginwhosaidthecitymightbeuninhabitableforthreemonthswasforcedtoorderpolicetoconcentrateonstoppingcrimenotsavingpeople. [E]What’spreventinggreaterconnectionandcoordinationbetweenregionsThetechnologyexistsandisavailable;theeconomicbenefitsofrelievingthebottlenecksbetweenregionsfarexceedsthecostsbymanybillionsofdollars. [F]Yetdespiteclaimsinthewakeoflastweek’sblackoutthatthenationhasa"thirdworld"powergridtheregionalnetworksarefirstworld.Butinonecriticalaspectthesystemhasbecomeincreasinglyvulnerable:intheinterconnectionsamongthedifferentregions.Boththenumberandsizeofthewiresonthebordersbetweenregionsareinadequatefortherisingflowofelectricity.Thismissingpartcreatestheworstbottlenecksinthesystem. [G]Sinceenteringtheoverseaspowermarketin1993KEPCOhasestablishedseveralachievementsthroughitsdistinguishedinternationalbusinessstrategiestopromoteelectricpowerdevelopmentoftheworld.Basedonitslongexperienceandadvancedtechnologygainedover100yearsinKoreaKEPCOcontinuestobuildupitsoutstandingreputationasaleadingutilitycompany.MoreoverKEPCOembraceschallengesandmakesboldstepsintowidermarketsintheworldbyitsflairfordynamicactivitieswhichisfavorablyreceivedinthePhilippinesChinaVietnamandLibya. 45
EricHansenwritesabouttravelasaparticipatingenthusiastratherthanamereobserver.46Itgivesthesenineessaysbasedonhisadventuresoverthepastquartercenturyaresonanceandpsychologicaldepthnotusuallyseeninmoreroutinetravelnarratives. 47Thereaderfollowswide-eyedfromthearmchairasMr.HansenjourneysfromtheFrenchRivieratotheSouthPacificIndiatheUnitedStatesandBorneo.Eachstorycombinesnuancedportraitsofmemorablecharacterswithlyricaldescriptionsofhumanfallibilityandgenerosity. InhiswildesttaleMr.HansenrecountshistimeworkingatahotelonThursdayIslandintheTorresStrait.48"Seldom"hewrites"doesonehavethechancetoenjoythecompanyofpeoplewhohavesocompletelygiventhemselvesovertothecultivationofthelowlifeinsuchstyleandwithsuchgusto."49Beyondtheboozebrokenglassandfistfightstheauthorlearnsthehistoryoftheisland’spearldiverswhoincanvassuitsandlead-weightedshoessnatchgold-lippearlshellsfromaseabedteemingwithseasnakesgiantgroupersandsaltwatercrocodiles. OtherstoriestellofdrinkinghallucinogenickavainVanuatu;lingeringonabeachwithabeautifulMaldiviangirlinapleasurablepursuitthatthelocalscall"nightfishing";cookingpiroshkiwithaMoscowémigréinatinyManhattanapartmentwhiledrugdealersshooteachotherinthelobbybelow;andwatchingtheIndonesiancrewofabecalmedtallshipdanceondecktocountryandwesternmusic. 50ThemostmovingstorycomesfromKolkataformerlyCalcuttawheretheauthor’sfrustrationattheimpenetrablebureaucracywhentryingtoshiphisbelongingshomeisputintoperspectivebyhisvoluntaryworkatMotherTheresa’shomeforthedying.Herehebathesfeedsandcomfortstheinhabitantsofthemen’swardwherethepanicanddespairofdeatharereplacedbydignityandhumour.Thissensitiveportraitalonemakesthisheartfeltcollectionamagicalandupliftingread. Thereaderfollowswide-eyedfromthearmchairasMr.HansenjourneysfromtheFrenchRivieratotheSouthPacificIndiatheUnitedStatesandBorneo.
Manycountrieshaveatraditionofinvitingforeignerstorulethem.TheEnglishcalledinWilliamofOrangein1688anddependingonyourinterpretationofhistoryWilliamofNormandyin1066.Bothdidratheragoodjob.ReturningthecomplimentAlbaniaaskedawell-bredEnglishmancalledAubgreyHerberttobetheirkinginthe1920s.Herefused—andtheyendedupwithseveralcovescalledZog.Americathecountryofimmigrantshasnotruckwithimportedforeigntalent.ArticletwooftheConstitutionsaysthatnopersonexceptanatural-borncitizen...shallbeeligibletotheofficeofthepresident.Thisisnowbeingchallengedbyaparticularlyirresistibleimmigrant:ArnoldSchwarzenegger.BarelyayearhaspassedsincetheerstwhilecyborgswepttovictoryinCalifornia’srecallelectionyetthereisalreadyanAmend-for-ArnoldcampaigncollectingsignaturestolettheAustrian-borngovernorhaveagoattheWhiteHouse.GeorgeBushseniorhasweighedinonhisbehalf.ThereareseveralArnoldamendmentsinCongress:oneallowsforeignerswhohavebeennaturalizedcitizensfor20yearstobecomepresident.TheAustrianbecameAmericanin1983.Itiseasytodismissthehooplaasanotherregrettableexampleofloopycelebritypolitics.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasmadeadecentstartasgovernorbuthehasdonelittleasyettochangethestructureofhisdysfunctionalstate.IndeedevenifthelawwerechangedhecouldwellbeelbowedasidebyanotherincomerthistimefromCanada:theDemocraticgovernorofMichiganJenniferGranholmwhoappearstohavefewerskeletonsinherclosetthanthehedonisticactor.MoreoverchangingtheAmericanconstitutionisnododdle.Ithashappenedonly17timessince1791whenthefirsttenamendmentswerecodifiedasthebillofrights.Tochangetheconstitutionanamendmenthastobeapprovedbytwo-thirdsofbothhousesofCongressandthentoberatifiedbythree-quartersofthe50states.TheArnoldamendmentishardlyinthesamecategoryasabolishingslaveryorgivingwomenthevote.AndassomewagspointoutAustrianimportshaveaprettydodgyrecordofrunningmilitarysuperpowers.ThewordcyborgLine1Paragraph3mostprobablyrefersto______.
ItmaybejustaswellforOxfordUniversity’sreputationthatthisweek’smeetingofCongregationits3552-stronggoverningbodywasheldinsecretfortheairofcivilizedrationalitythatisgenerallysupposedtopervadedonnishconversationhaslatelyturnedfractious.That’sbecausethevice-chancellorthenearestthingtheplacehastoachiefexecutivehasproposedthemostfundamentalreformstotheuniversitysincetheestablishmentofthecollegesystemin1249;andalotofthedonsandcollegesdon’tlikeit.ThetroublewithOxfordisthatitisunmanageable.Itsproblems—thedifficultyofrecruitinggooddonsandofgettingridofbadonesconcernsaboutacademicstandardsseveremoneyworriesatsomecolleges—allspringfromthat.JohnHoodwhowasrecruitedasvice-chancellorfromtheUniversityofAucklandandisnowprobablythemost-hatedantipodeaninBritishacademiclifereckonsheknowshowtosolvethisandhasproposedtoreducethepowerofdonsandcollegesandincreasethatofuniversityadministrators.Mr.Hoodisrightthattheuniversity’smanagementstructureneedsanoverhaul.Butradicalthoughhisproposalsseemtothoseinvolvedinthecurrentrowtheydonotgofarenough.ThedifficultyofmanagingOxfordstemsonlypartlyfromthenuttinessofitssystemofgovernance;themorefundamentalproblemliesinitsrelationshipwiththegovernment.That’swhyMr.Hoodshouldadoptanideathatwasonceregardedasteeteringonthelunaticfringeofradicalismbutthesedaysisdiscussedeveninpolitecircles.Theideaisindependence.Oxfordgetsaround£5000$9500perundergraduateperyearfromthegovernment.Inreturnitacceptsthatitcanchargestudentsonly£1150risingto£3000nextyearontopofthat.Sinceitprobablycostsatleast£10000ayeartoteachanundergraduatethatleavesOxfordwithadeficitof£4000orsoperstudenttocoverfromitsownfunds.IfOxforddeclaredindependenceitwouldlosethe£52mundergraduatesubsidyatleast.CoulditfilltheholeCertainly.America’stopuniversitieschargearound£20000perstudentperyear.Thedifficultissuewouldnotbemoneyalone:itwouldbebalancingnumbersofnot-so-brilliantrichpeoplepayingtopwhackwiththeclevererpooreronestheywerecross-subsidising.America’stopuniversitiesmanageit:highfeesmeanbetterteachingwhichkeepscompetitionhotandacademicstandardshighwhileluringenoughdonationstoprovidebursariesforthepoor.ItshouldbeeasiertoextractmoneyfromalumniifOxfordwerenolongerstate-funded.Towhichofthefollowingstatementswouldtheauthormostprobablyagree
Companieshaveembarkedonwhatlookslikethebeginningsofare-runofthemergersandacquisitionsM&Awavethatdefinedthesecondbubblyhalfofthe1990s.Thatperiodreadersmightrecallwascharacterizedbyacollectivesplurgethatsawthecreationofsomeofthemostindebtedcompaniesinhistorymanyofwhichlaterwentbankruptorwerethemselvesbrokenup.WildbiddingfortelecomsinternetandmediaassetsnottomentionthemadnessthatwasDaimler’s$40billionmotoringtakeoverin1998-1999ofChryslerortheTime-Warner/AOLmega-mergerin2000helpedtogivemergersathoroughlybadname.AconsensusemergedthatM&Awasagreatwayforinvestmentbankstoreaprichfeesandasurewayforambitiousmanagerstobetrayinvestorsbytrashingthevalueoftheirshares.NowM&Aisback.ItsreturnisaglobalphenomenonbutitisperhapsmoststrikinginEuropewheresofarthisyeartherehasbeenastreamofdealsworthmorethan$600billionintotalaround40%higherthaninthesameperiodof2004.ThelatesteffortcamethisweekwhenFrance’sSaint-Gobainabuilding-materialsfirmunveiledthedetailsofits£3.6billion$6.5billionhostilebidforBPBaBritishrival.Inthefirsthalfoftheyearcross-borderactivitywasupthreefoldoverthesameperiodlastyear.EvenFranceTelecomwhichwasleftalmostbankruptattheendofthelastmergerwaverecentlyboughtAmenaaSpanishmobileoperator.Shareholder’sapprovalofallthesedealsraisesaninterestingquestionforcompanieseverywhere:areinvestorsrighttothinkthinthesemergersaremorelikelytosucceedthanearlieronesTherearetwoanswers.Thefirstisthatpastmergersmayhavebeenjudgedtooharshly.ThesecondisthatthepresentrashofEuropeandealsdoeslookmorerationalbut—andthecaveatiscrucial—onlysofar.Thepatternmaynothold.M&A’spoorreputationstemsnotonlyfromthestringofspectacularfailuresinthe1990sbutalsofromstudiesthatshowedvaluedestructionforacquiringshareholdersin80%ofdeals.Butmorerecentstudiesbyeconomistshaveintroducedanoteofcaution.Investorsshouldlookatthenumberofdealsthatsucceedorfailtypicallymeasuredbytheimpactonthesharepriceratherthanasyoumightthinkweighingthembysize.ForexamplenoonedoubtsthattheDaimler-Chryslermergerdestroyedvalue.ThecombinedmarketvalueofthetwofirmsisstillbelowthatofDaimleralonebeforethedeal.ThissingledealaccountedforhalfofallGermanM&Aactivitybyvaluein1998and1999andprobablydominatedpeople’sthinkingaboutmergerstothesamedegree.Throwinafewothersuchmonstersanditisnowonderthatbroadstudieshavetendedtofindthatmergersareabadidea.Thetruepictureismorecomplicated.Theconclusionreachedbygeneralresearchesisthatmergersarenot______.
Sometimeswehavespecificproblemswithourmother;sometimeslifewithhercanjustbehardwork.Iftherearedifficultiesinyour1it’sbesttodealwiththem2rememberthatany3shouldbedone4personorbyletter.Thetelephoneisnotagood5becauseitistooeasy6eithersideto7theconversation. Explaintoher8youfinddifficultinyourrelationshipandthen9somenewarrangementsthatyouthinkwouldestablisha10balancebetweenyou.Sometimeswehold11fromestablishingsuchboundariesbecauseweareafraidthatdoing12impliesweare13her.Weneedtorememberthatbeing14fromourmotherdoesnot15meanthatWenolongerloveher.Iftheconflictis16andyoucannotfindawayto17ityoumightdecidetogiveupyourrelationshipwithyourmotherforawhile.Someofmypatientshad18"trialseparations".The19allowedthingstosimmerdownenabling20. 11
Sometimeswehavespecificproblemswithourmother;sometimeslifewithhercanjustbehardwork.Iftherearedifficultiesinyour1it’sbesttodealwiththem2rememberthatany3shouldbedone4personorbyletter.Thetelephoneisnotagood5becauseitistooeasy6eithersideto7theconversation. Explaintoher8youfinddifficultinyourrelationshipandthen9somenewarrangementsthatyouthinkwouldestablisha10balancebetweenyou.Sometimeswehold11fromestablishingsuchboundariesbecauseweareafraidthatdoing12impliesweare13her.Weneedtorememberthatbeing14fromourmotherdoesnot15meanthatWenolongerloveher.Iftheconflictis16andyoucannotfindawayto17ityoumightdecidetogiveupyourrelationshipwithyourmotherforawhile.Someofmypatientshad18"trialseparations".The19allowedthingstosimmerdownenabling20. 9
EricHansenwritesabouttravelasaparticipatingenthusiastratherthanamereobserver.46Itgivesthesenineessaysbasedonhisadventuresoverthepastquartercenturyaresonanceandpsychologicaldepthnotusuallyseeninmoreroutinetravelnarratives. 47Thereaderfollowswide-eyedfromthearmchairasMr.HansenjourneysfromtheFrenchRivieratotheSouthPacificIndiatheUnitedStatesandBorneo.Eachstorycombinesnuancedportraitsofmemorablecharacterswithlyricaldescriptionsofhumanfallibilityandgenerosity. InhiswildesttaleMr.HansenrecountshistimeworkingatahotelonThursdayIslandintheTorresStrait.48"Seldom"hewrites"doesonehavethechancetoenjoythecompanyofpeoplewhohavesocompletelygiventhemselvesovertothecultivationofthelowlifeinsuchstyleandwithsuchgusto."49Beyondtheboozebrokenglassandfistfightstheauthorlearnsthehistoryoftheisland’spearldiverswhoincanvassuitsandlead-weightedshoessnatchgold-lippearlshellsfromaseabedteemingwithseasnakesgiantgroupersandsaltwatercrocodiles. OtherstoriestellofdrinkinghallucinogenickavainVanuatu;lingeringonabeachwithabeautifulMaldiviangirlinapleasurablepursuitthatthelocalscall"nightfishing";cookingpiroshkiwithaMoscowémigréinatinyManhattanapartmentwhiledrugdealersshooteachotherinthelobbybelow;andwatchingtheIndonesiancrewofabecalmedtallshipdanceondecktocountryandwesternmusic. 50ThemostmovingstorycomesfromKolkataformerlyCalcuttawheretheauthor’sfrustrationattheimpenetrablebureaucracywhentryingtoshiphisbelongingshomeisputintoperspectivebyhisvoluntaryworkatMotherTheresa’shomeforthedying.Herehebathesfeedsandcomfortstheinhabitantsofthemen’swardwherethepanicanddespairofdeatharereplacedbydignityandhumour.Thissensitiveportraitalonemakesthisheartfeltcollectionamagicalandupliftingread. Beyondtheboozebrokenglassandfistfightstheauthorlearnsthehistoryoftheisland’spearldiverswhoincanvassuitsandlead-weightedshoessnatchgold-lippearlshellsfromaseabedteemingwithseasnakesgiantgroupersandsaltwatercrocodiles.
Sometimeswehavespecificproblemswithourmother;sometimeslifewithhercanjustbehardwork.Iftherearedifficultiesinyour1it’sbesttodealwiththem2rememberthatany3shouldbedone4personorbyletter.Thetelephoneisnotagood5becauseitistooeasy6eithersideto7theconversation. Explaintoher8youfinddifficultinyourrelationshipandthen9somenewarrangementsthatyouthinkwouldestablisha10balancebetweenyou.Sometimeswehold11fromestablishingsuchboundariesbecauseweareafraidthatdoing12impliesweare13her.Weneedtorememberthatbeing14fromourmotherdoesnot15meanthatWenolongerloveher.Iftheconflictis16andyoucannotfindawayto17ityoumightdecidetogiveupyourrelationshipwithyourmotherforawhile.Someofmypatientshad18"trialseparations".The19allowedthingstosimmerdownenabling20. 17
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