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[A]Thetake-upofEVs—whichrunentirelyonelectricitystoredinrechargeablebatteries—isseenascentraltotheplantocutthetransportsector’scarbonemissionsbothhereandacrosstheEuropeanUnion.Itispredictedthatwewillberunningatotalof800000EVsinBritainby2020andasaresulttheracetoinstallarecharginginfrastructureiswellunderway.TransportforLondonTfLrecentlyannounceditwillhave1300EVchargingpointsinLondonby2013—morethanthecurrentnumberofpetrolstationsinthecapital.TheLondonmayorBorisJohnsonisontherecordassayinghewantstomakethecitytheelectriccarcapitalofEurope. [B]Howeverthepowercompaniessensingagoodbusinessopportunityarenowvyingtosignupelectriccar-owninghouseholdswiththeofferofcheaperandfasteroff-peakhomechargingthatwillcutthetimeittakestorechargethevehicle—freeingittomakemorejourneysandmakingthemmoreattractivetobuyers.SofarEDFBritishGasandmostrecentlynpowerhavesaidtheywillbetargetingEVuserswithspecialhomeservicesaswellascheapertariffsforrechargingvehicles. [C]WhatwouldmakeyouconsiderbuyinganelectriccarTheyofferagreenwaytogetaroundwiththechancetobypasspetrolstations.AndtheyareexemptfromroadtaxandLondon’scongestioncharge.Energycompanynpower英国电力公司thisweekrevealedthat33%ofUKdriverswouldthinkaboutbuyinganelectricvehicleEVinthenextfiveyearsrisingto41%whenthebenefitswereexplained. [D]ButdespitetheintroductioninJanuaryofagenerous￡5000governmentpurchasegranttoencouragemorepeopletotaketheplungeit’sfairtosaythatsalesofelectricallypoweredcarsintheUKareyettoreallytakeoff.Justover500peopletookthegovernmentuponitsofferinthefirstquarterofthisyear.Theirhighprices—typicallyabout￡25000afterthegrant—plusalackofmodelsbymajorcarmakersandashortageofchargingpointshaveheldbacksales.Howeverthelasttwopointsareabouttochange. [E]SpeakinginBerlinlastweeknpower’sheadofe-mobilityPhilEvanstoldGuardianMoneythatthecompanyseesEVsasamajoropportunityandasaresultitisworkingonbuildingan"upgradable"charginginfrastructurethatwilldevelopasthecars’powersystemsbecomemoresophisticated. [F]PotentialbuyersnowhaveachoiceofsevenmodelsintheUKwith13moreonthewaywhileEDFEnergy英国电网BritishGasandnpowerhaverecentlyannouncedplanstostartofferingtoinstallfasterandcheaperchargingpointsincustomers’homesinamovetheyhopewillhelpkick-startsales.Thecompaniesarebankingonthefactthatbuyersofthelatestmoreconsumer-friendlyelectriccarssuchastheNissanLeafaregoingtoboostdemandforelectricity. [G]PlansarealsounderwaytoincreasethenumberofchargingpointsatavarietyoflocationsacrosstheUK—andsoonitwillbepossibleforhomeownerstoupgradetheirgaragestoallowfastersaferhomecharging.Untilrecentlymostownersofplug-in-to-rechargeelectriccarshavehadtorelyonthetraditionalthree-pointhouseholdplugandwaitabouteighthourstofullyrechargetheirvehicleathome. 44
Intheidealizedversionofhowscienceisdonefactsabouttheworldarewaitingtobeobservedandcollectedbyobjectiveresearcherswhousethescientificmethodtocan’youttheirwork.Butintheeverydaypracticeofsciencediscoveryfrequentlyfollowsanambiguousandcomplicatedroute.Weaimtobeobjectivebutwecannotescapethecontextofouruniquelifeexperience.Priorknowledgeandinterestinfluencewhatweexperiencewhatwethinkourexperiencesmeanandthesubsequentactionswetake.Opportunitiesformisinterpretationerrorandself-deceptionabound. Consequentlydiscoveryclaimsshouldbethoughtofasprotoscience.Similartonewlystakedminingclaimstheyarelullofpotential.Butittakescollectivescrutinyandacceptancetotransformadiscoveryclaimintoamaturediscovery.Thisisthecredibilityprocessthroughwhichtheindividualresearcher’smeherenowbecomesthecommunity’sanyoneanywhereanytime.Objectiveknowledgeisthegoalnotthestartingpoint. Onceadiscoveryclaimbecomespublicthediscovererreceivesintellectualcredit.Butunlikewithminingclaimsthecommunitytakescontrolofwhathappensnext.Withinthecomplexsocialstructureofthescientificcommunityresearchersmakediscoveries;editorsandreviewersactasgatekeepersbycontrollingthepublicationprocess;otherscientistsusethenewfindingtosuittheirownpurposes;andfinallythepublicincludingotherscientistsreceivesthenewdiscoveryandpossiblyaccompanyingtechnology.Asadiscoveryclaimworksitwaythroughthecommunitytheinteractionandconfrontationbetweensharedandcompetingbeliefsaboutthescienceandthetechnologyinvolvedtransformsanindividual’sdiscoveryclaimintothecommunity’scrediblediscovery. Twoparadoxesexistthroughoutthiscredibilityprocess.FirstscientificworktendstofocusonsomeaspectofprevailingKnowledgethatisviewedasincompleteorincorrect.Littlerewardaccompaniesduplicationandconfirmationofwhatisalreadyknownandbelieved.Thegoalisnew-searchnotre-search.Notsurprisinglynewlypublisheddiscoveryclaimsandcrediblediscoveriesthatappeartobeimportantandconvincingwillalwaysbeopentochallengeandpotentialmodificationorrefutationbyfutureresearchers.Secondnoveltyitselffrequentlyprovokesdisbelief.NobelLaureateandphysiologistAlbertAzent-Gy6rgyioncedescribeddiscoveryas"seeingwhateverybodyhasseenandthinkingwhatnobodyhasthought."Butthinkingwhatnobodyelsehasthoughtandtellingotherswhattheyhavemissedmaynotchangetheirviews.Sometimesyearsarerequiredfortrulynoveldiscoveryclaimstobeacceptedandappreciated. Intheendcredibility"happens"toadiscoveryclaim—aprocessthatcorrespondstowhatphilosopherAnnetteBaierhasdescribedasthecommonsofthemind."Wereasontogetherchallengereviseandcompleteeachother’sreasoningandeachother’sconceptionsofreason. AlbertSzent-Gydrgyiwouldmostlikelyagreethat
FORthepasttwoyearsinSiliconValleythecentreofAmerica’stechnologyindustryconference-goershaveentertainedthemselvesplayingaguessinggame:howmanytimeswillaspeakermentionthephrase"longtail"ItisusuallyahighnumberthankstotheinfluenceofthelongtailtheorywhichwasfirstdevelopedbyChrisAndersontheeditorofWiredmagazineinanarticlein2004.Thoughtechnologistsandbloggerschuckleathoweverybusinesspresentationnowhastohaveitslong-tailsectionmostareenviousofMrAndersonwhosebrainwavequicklybecamethemostfashionablebusinessideaaround. Whetherablockbusterfilmabestsellingnovelorachart-toppingrapsongpopularcultureidolizesthehit.Companiesdevotethemselvestocreatingthembecausethecostofdistributionandthelimitsofshelfspaceinphysicalshopsmeanthatprofitabilitydependsonahighvolumeofsales.Butaroundthebeginningofthiscenturyagroupofinternetcompaniesrealizedthatwithendlessshelvesandanationaloreveninternationalaudienceonlinetheycouldofferahugerangeofproducts—andmakemoneyatthesametime. ThenichetheobscureandthespecialistMrAndersonargueswillgaingroundattheexpenseofthehit.Asevidencehepointstoadropinthenumberofcompaniesthattraditionallycalculatetheirrevenue/salesratioaccordingtothe80/20rule—wherethetopfifthofproductscontributefour-fifthsofrevenues.EcastaSanFranciscodigitaljukeboxcompanyfoundthat98%ofits10000albumssoldatleastonetrackeverythreemonths.ExpressedinthelanguageofstatisticstheexperiencesofEcastandothercompaniessuchasAmazonanonlinebooksellersuggestthatproductsdowninthelongtailofastatisticaldistributionaddedtogethercanbehighlyprofitable.Theinternethelpspeoplefindtheirwaytorelativelyobscurematerialwithrecommendationsandreviewsbyotherpeopleandforthosewillingtohavetheirartistictastespredictedbyapieceofsoftwarecomputerprogramswhichanalyzepastselections. Long-tailenthusiastsarguethatthewholeofculturewillbenefitnotjustcommercialenterprises.Televisionfilmandmusicaresuchbewitchingmediaintheirownrightthatmanypeoplearequitehappytowatchandlistentowhatthemainstreamprovides.Butifindividualshavetheopportunitytopickbettermoreideallysuitedentertainmentfromafarwiderselectiontheywilltakeitaccordingtothetheoryofthelongtail.Someanalystsreckonthatentirepopulationsmightbecomehappierandwiseroncetheyhaveaccesstothousandsofdocumentariesindependentfilmsandsub-genresofeverykindofmusicinsteadofbeingsubjectedtowhatMrAndersoncallsthetyrannyoflowest-common-denominatorfare.Thatmightbetakingthingsabitfar.Butthelongtailiscertainlyoneoftheinternet’sbettergiftstohumanity. Thephraselowest-common-denominatorLine9Paragraph4probablyrefersto
Whenthereisbloodinthewateritisonlynaturalthatdorsalfinsswirlaroundexcitedly.NowthatAmerica’shousingmarketisailingpredatorshavetheirsightsonthecountry’scredit-cardmarket.AnalystsatGoldmanSachsreckonthatcredit-cardlossescouldreach$99billionifcontagionspreadsfromsubprimemortgagestootherformsofconsumercredit.Signsofstrainareclearlyvisible.Therearerisesinboththecharge-offanddelinquencyrateswhichmeasuretheshareofbalancesthatareuncollectableormorethan30dayslaterespectively.HSBCannouncedlastmonththatithadtakena$1.4billionchargeinitsAmericanconsumer-financebusinesspartlybecauseofweaknessamongcardborrowers. Itistooearlytopanicthough.Charge-offsanddelinquenciesarestilllow.AccordingtoMoody’saratingagencythethird-quarterdelinquencyrateof3.89%wasalmostafullpercentagepointbelowthehistoricalaverage.Thedeteriorationinratescanbepartlyexplainedbytechnicalfactors.AchangeinAmerica’spersonal-bankruptcylawsin2005ledtoanabruptfallinbankruptcyfilingswhichinturnaccountforabigchunkofcredit-cardlosses;thenumberoffilingsandthuscharge-offrateswouldberisingagainwhetherornotoverallconditionsforborrowersweregettingworse. Theindustryalsoreportssolidpaymentrateswhichshowhowmuchoftheirdebtconsumerspayoffeachmonth.Andconfidenceincredit-cardasset-backedsecuritiesisprettyfirmdespiteparalysisinothercornersofstructuredfinance.DennisMoroneyofTowerGrouparesearchfirmpredictsthatissuancevolumesfor2007willendupbeing25%higherthanlastyear. Directchannelsofinfectionbetweenthesubprime-mortgagecrisisandthecredit-cardmarketcertainlyexist:consumersarelikeliertoloaduponcredit-carddebtnowthathome-equityloansaredryingup.Butcardissuerslookatcashflowratherthanassetvaluessofallinghousepricesdonotnecessarilytriggerachangeinborrowers’creditworthiness.Theymayevenworktoissuers’advantage.Theincentivesforconsumerstokeeppayingthemortgagedecreaseifpropertiesareworthlessthanthevalueoftheloan;carddebtriseshigherupthelistofrepaymentprioritiesasaresult. Cardissuersarealsoabletorespondmuchmoreswiftlyandflexiblytostormierconditionsthanmortgagelendersarebychanginginterestratesoralteringcreditlimits.Thatshouldintheoryreducetheriskofarapidrepricingofassets."Wearenotgoingtowakeuponedayandtotallyrevaluetheloans"saysGaryPerlinCapitalOne’schieffinancialofficer. Ifasuddensubprime-stylemeltdowninthecredit-cardmarketisimprobabletherisksofasustaineddownturnaremuchmorereal.IflowerhousepricesandacontractionincreditpushAmericaintorecessiontheindustrywillundoubtedlyfaceagrimmerfuture.Keepwatchingforthosedorsalfins. Accordingtothethirdparagraphwhywouldthenumberofbankruptcyfilingsberisingagain
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 6
Directions: Writeanessayof160—200wordsbasedonthefollowingphoto.Inyouressayyoushould 1describethephotobrieflyspeculatingaboutwhatsheisthinkingof 2statedifferentviewsonparttimejobsand 3giveyourowncomment. YoushouldwriteitneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 42
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 14
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 16
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 12
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 18
Anawkward-lookingcharactersuchasCyranodeBergeracmightsniffatthesuggestionbutrecentscientificresearchshowsbeautybrainsandbrawnmayinfactallbealliedwritesDrRajPersaud. 46Psychologistshaveconcludedthatwemaybedrawntothestereotypicallyattractivebecauseofwhattheirfacesrevealabouttheirintelligenceandsuccessinlaterlife.InAmericanresearchledbyProfessorLeslieZebrowitzofBrandeisUniversityhasshownanassociationbetweenfacialattractiveandIQ.Strangersbrieflyexposedtoatarget’sfacewereabletocorrectlyjudgeintelligenceatlevelssignificantlybetterthanchance. Thesameteamalsoresearchedhowaperson’sattractivenessmightbearrelationtotheirintelligence.Theyfoundthatgood-lookingpeopledidbetterinIQtestsastheyaged.47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.48Perhapsbecausethemoreattractivepeopleweretreatedasmoreintelligenttheyendeduphavingmorestimulatingandthereforeintelligence-enhancinglives. DoesthismeanthatyourfacereallycouldbeyourdestinySociologistsDrUlrichMuellerandDrAllanMazuroftheUniversityofMarburginGermanyrecentlyanalyzedthefinalyearphotographsofthe1950graduatesofWestPointintheUnitedStates.Dominantfacialappearancesturnedouttobeaconsistentpredictoroflater-rankattainment: Againtheybelievedtherecouldbeaself-fulfillingeffect.49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks. AteamattheRoyalCollegeofSurgeonsinDublinhasbeeninvestigatingthesensitivesubjectoflinksbetweenphysicalandmentalabnormalities.LedbyDoctorsRobinHennessyandJohnWaddingtontheteamusedanewlasersurface-scanningtechniquetomakea3-Danalysisofhowfacialshapemightvarywithbrainstructure.Theirfindingsshowedthatinearlyfetallifebrainandfacedevelopmentareintimatelyconnected.Fromthistheyconcludedthatabnormalitiesinbrainelaborationprobablyalsoaffectfacedevelopment. ThisaccordingtothemexplainsthestrikingfacialfeaturesofsomeonewithDown’ssyndrome.50Usingsimilartechniquestheteamalsodemonstratedhowotherdisorderslinkedtobrainaberrationscouldbeassociatedwithfacialalterations. Sotheverylatestscientificresearchsuggeststhatnobodyshouldtrytolooktooobviouslydifferentfromaverage. 50Usingsimilartechniquestheteamalsodemonstratedhowotherdisorderslinkedtobrainaberrationscouldbeassociatedwithfacialalterations.
Anawkward-lookingcharactersuchasCyranodeBergeracmightsniffatthesuggestionbutrecentscientificresearchshowsbeautybrainsandbrawnmayinfactallbealliedwritesDrRajPersaud. 46Psychologistshaveconcludedthatwemaybedrawntothestereotypicallyattractivebecauseofwhattheirfacesrevealabouttheirintelligenceandsuccessinlaterlife.InAmericanresearchledbyProfessorLeslieZebrowitzofBrandeisUniversityhasshownanassociationbetweenfacialattractiveandIQ.Strangersbrieflyexposedtoatarget’sfacewereabletocorrectlyjudgeintelligenceatlevelssignificantlybetterthanchance. Thesameteamalsoresearchedhowaperson’sattractivenessmightbearrelationtotheirintelligence.Theyfoundthatgood-lookingpeopledidbetterinIQtestsastheyaged.47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.48Perhapsbecausethemoreattractivepeopleweretreatedasmoreintelligenttheyendeduphavingmorestimulatingandthereforeintelligence-enhancinglives. DoesthismeanthatyourfacereallycouldbeyourdestinySociologistsDrUlrichMuellerandDrAllanMazuroftheUniversityofMarburginGermanyrecentlyanalyzedthefinalyearphotographsofthe1950graduatesofWestPointintheUnitedStates.Dominantfacialappearancesturnedouttobeaconsistentpredictoroflater-rankattainment: Againtheybelievedtherecouldbeaself-fulfillingeffect.49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks. AteamattheRoyalCollegeofSurgeonsinDublinhasbeeninvestigatingthesensitivesubjectoflinksbetweenphysicalandmentalabnormalities.LedbyDoctorsRobinHennessyandJohnWaddingtontheteamusedanewlasersurface-scanningtechniquetomakea3-Danalysisofhowfacialshapemightvarywithbrainstructure.Theirfindingsshowedthatinearlyfetallifebrainandfacedevelopmentareintimatelyconnected.Fromthistheyconcludedthatabnormalitiesinbrainelaborationprobablyalsoaffectfacedevelopment. ThisaccordingtothemexplainsthestrikingfacialfeaturesofsomeonewithDown’ssyndrome.50Usingsimilartechniquestheteamalsodemonstratedhowotherdisorderslinkedtobrainaberrationscouldbeassociatedwithfacialalterations. Sotheverylatestscientificresearchsuggeststhatnobodyshouldtrytolooktooobviouslydifferentfromaverage. 48Perhapsbecausethemoreattractivepeopleweretreatedasmoreintelligenttheyendeduphavingmorestimulatingandthereforeintelligence-enhancinglives.
Intheidealizedversionofhowscienceisdonefactsabouttheworldarewaitingtobeobservedandcollectedbyobjectiveresearcherswhousethescientificmethodtocan’youttheirwork.Butintheeverydaypracticeofsciencediscoveryfrequentlyfollowsanambiguousandcomplicatedroute.Weaimtobeobjectivebutwecannotescapethecontextofouruniquelifeexperience.Priorknowledgeandinterestinfluencewhatweexperiencewhatwethinkourexperiencesmeanandthesubsequentactionswetake.Opportunitiesformisinterpretationerrorandself-deceptionabound. Consequentlydiscoveryclaimsshouldbethoughtofasprotoscience.Similartonewlystakedminingclaimstheyarelullofpotential.Butittakescollectivescrutinyandacceptancetotransformadiscoveryclaimintoamaturediscovery.Thisisthecredibilityprocessthroughwhichtheindividualresearcher’smeherenowbecomesthecommunity’sanyoneanywhereanytime.Objectiveknowledgeisthegoalnotthestartingpoint. Onceadiscoveryclaimbecomespublicthediscovererreceivesintellectualcredit.Butunlikewithminingclaimsthecommunitytakescontrolofwhathappensnext.Withinthecomplexsocialstructureofthescientificcommunityresearchersmakediscoveries;editorsandreviewersactasgatekeepersbycontrollingthepublicationprocess;otherscientistsusethenewfindingtosuittheirownpurposes;andfinallythepublicincludingotherscientistsreceivesthenewdiscoveryandpossiblyaccompanyingtechnology.Asadiscoveryclaimworksitwaythroughthecommunitytheinteractionandconfrontationbetweensharedandcompetingbeliefsaboutthescienceandthetechnologyinvolvedtransformsanindividual’sdiscoveryclaimintothecommunity’scrediblediscovery. Twoparadoxesexistthroughoutthiscredibilityprocess.FirstscientificworktendstofocusonsomeaspectofprevailingKnowledgethatisviewedasincompleteorincorrect.Littlerewardaccompaniesduplicationandconfirmationofwhatisalreadyknownandbelieved.Thegoalisnew-searchnotre-search.Notsurprisinglynewlypublisheddiscoveryclaimsandcrediblediscoveriesthatappeartobeimportantandconvincingwillalwaysbeopentochallengeandpotentialmodificationorrefutationbyfutureresearchers.Secondnoveltyitselffrequentlyprovokesdisbelief.NobelLaureateandphysiologistAlbertAzent-Gy6rgyioncedescribeddiscoveryas"seeingwhateverybodyhasseenandthinkingwhatnobodyhasthought."Butthinkingwhatnobodyelsehasthoughtandtellingotherswhattheyhavemissedmaynotchangetheirviews.Sometimesyearsarerequiredfortrulynoveldiscoveryclaimstobeacceptedandappreciated. Intheendcredibility"happens"toadiscoveryclaim—aprocessthatcorrespondstowhatphilosopherAnnetteBaierhasdescribedasthecommonsofthemind."Wereasontogetherchallengereviseandcompleteeachother’sreasoningandeachother’sconceptionsofreason. ItcanbeinferredfromParagraph2thatcredibilityprocessrequires
WhenLiamMcGeedepartedaspresidentofBankofAmericainAugusthisexplanationwassurprisinglystraightup.Ratherthancloakinghisexitintheusualvagueexcuseshecamerightoutandsaidhewasleavingtopursuemygoalofrunningacompany.BroadcastinghisambitionwasverymuchmydecisionMcGeesays.WithintwoweekshewastalkingforthefirsttimewiththeboardofHartfordFinancialServicesGroupwhichnamedhimCEOandchairmanonSeptember29.McGeesaysleavingwithoutapositionlinedupgavehimtimetoreflectonwhatkindofcompanyhewantedtorun.Italsosentaclearmessagetotheoutsideworldabouthisaspirations.AndMcGeeisn’talone.InrecentweekstheNo.2executivesatAvonandAmericanExpressquitwiththeexplanationthattheywerelookingforaCEOpost.Asboardsscrutinizesuccessionplansinresponsetoshareholderpressureexecutiveswhodon’tgetthenodalsomaywishtomoveon.Aturbulentbusinessenvironmentalsohasseniormanagerscautiousoflettingvaguepronouncementscloudtheirreputations.Asthefirstsignsofrecoverybegintotakeholddeputychiefsmaybemorewillingtomakethejumpwithoutanet.InthethirdquarterCEOturnoverwasdown23%fromayearagoasnervousboardsstuckwiththeleaderstheyhadaccordingtoLiberumResearch.Astheeconomypicksupopportunitieswillaboundforaspiringleaders.Thedecisiontoquitaseniorpositiontolookforabetteroneisunconventional.ForyearsexecutivesandheadhuntershaveadheredtotherulethatthemostattractiveCEOcandidatesaretheoneswhomustbepoached.SaysKorn/FerryseniorpartnerDennisCarey:Ican’tthinkofasinglesearchI’vedonewhereaboardhasnotinstructedmetolookatsittingCEOsfirst.Thosewhojumpedwithoutajobhaven’talwayslandedintoppositionsquickly.EllenMarramquitaschiefofTropicanaadecadeagesayingshewantedtobeaCEO.ItwasayearbeforeshebecameheadofatinyInternet-basedcommoditiesexchange.RobertWillumstadleftCitigroupin2005withambitionstobeaCEO.Hefinallytookthatpostatamajorfinancialinstitutionthreeyearslater.Manyrecruiterssaytheolddisgraceisfadingfortopperformers.Thefinancialcrisishasmadeitmoreacceptabletobebetweenjobsortoleaveabadone.Thetraditionalrulewasit’ssafertostaywhereyouarebutthat’sbeenfundamentallyinvertedsaysoneheadhunter.Thepeoplewho’vebeenhurttheworstarethosewho’vestayedtoolong.WhenMcGeeannouncedhisdeparturehismannercanbestbedescribedasbeing
Whenthereisbloodinthewateritisonlynaturalthatdorsalfinsswirlaroundexcitedly.NowthatAmerica’shousingmarketisailingpredatorshavetheirsightsonthecountry’scredit-cardmarket.AnalystsatGoldmanSachsreckonthatcredit-cardlossescouldreach$99billionifcontagionspreadsfromsubprimemortgagestootherformsofconsumercredit.Signsofstrainareclearlyvisible.Therearerisesinboththecharge-offanddelinquencyrateswhichmeasuretheshareofbalancesthatareuncollectableormorethan30dayslaterespectively.HSBCannouncedlastmonththatithadtakena$1.4billionchargeinitsAmericanconsumer-financebusinesspartlybecauseofweaknessamongcardborrowers. Itistooearlytopanicthough.Charge-offsanddelinquenciesarestilllow.AccordingtoMoody’saratingagencythethird-quarterdelinquencyrateof3.89%wasalmostafullpercentagepointbelowthehistoricalaverage.Thedeteriorationinratescanbepartlyexplainedbytechnicalfactors.AchangeinAmerica’spersonal-bankruptcylawsin2005ledtoanabruptfallinbankruptcyfilingswhichinturnaccountforabigchunkofcredit-cardlosses;thenumberoffilingsandthuscharge-offrateswouldberisingagainwhetherornotoverallconditionsforborrowersweregettingworse. Theindustryalsoreportssolidpaymentrateswhichshowhowmuchoftheirdebtconsumerspayoffeachmonth.Andconfidenceincredit-cardasset-backedsecuritiesisprettyfirmdespiteparalysisinothercornersofstructuredfinance.DennisMoroneyofTowerGrouparesearchfirmpredictsthatissuancevolumesfor2007willendupbeing25%higherthanlastyear. Directchannelsofinfectionbetweenthesubprime-mortgagecrisisandthecredit-cardmarketcertainlyexist:consumersarelikeliertoloaduponcredit-carddebtnowthathome-equityloansaredryingup.Butcardissuerslookatcashflowratherthanassetvaluessofallinghousepricesdonotnecessarilytriggerachangeinborrowers’creditworthiness.Theymayevenworktoissuers’advantage.Theincentivesforconsumerstokeeppayingthemortgagedecreaseifpropertiesareworthlessthanthevalueoftheloan;carddebtriseshigherupthelistofrepaymentprioritiesasaresult. Cardissuersarealsoabletorespondmuchmoreswiftlyandflexiblytostormierconditionsthanmortgagelendersarebychanginginterestratesoralteringcreditlimits.Thatshouldintheoryreducetheriskofarapidrepricingofassets."Wearenotgoingtowakeuponedayandtotallyrevaluetheloans"saysGaryPerlinCapitalOne’schieffinancialofficer. Ifasuddensubprime-stylemeltdowninthecredit-cardmarketisimprobabletherisksofasustaineddownturnaremuchmorereal.IflowerhousepricesandacontractionincreditpushAmericaintorecessiontheindustrywillundoubtedlyfaceagrimmerfuture.Keepwatchingforthosedorsalfins. Accordingtotheauthorwhatwillthecredit-cardmarketbecome
WhenLiamMcGeedepartedaspresidentofBankofAmericainAugusthisexplanationwassurprisinglystraightup.Ratherthancloakinghisexitintheusualvagueexcuseshecamerightoutandsaidhewasleavingtopursuemygoalofrunningacompany.BroadcastinghisambitionwasverymuchmydecisionMcGeesays.WithintwoweekshewastalkingforthefirsttimewiththeboardofHartfordFinancialServicesGroupwhichnamedhimCEOandchairmanonSeptember29.McGeesaysleavingwithoutapositionlinedupgavehimtimetoreflectonwhatkindofcompanyhewantedtorun.Italsosentaclearmessagetotheoutsideworldabouthisaspirations.AndMcGeeisn’talone.InrecentweekstheNo.2executivesatAvonandAmericanExpressquitwiththeexplanationthattheywerelookingforaCEOpost.Asboardsscrutinizesuccessionplansinresponsetoshareholderpressureexecutiveswhodon’tgetthenodalsomaywishtomoveon.Aturbulentbusinessenvironmentalsohasseniormanagerscautiousoflettingvaguepronouncementscloudtheirreputations.Asthefirstsignsofrecoverybegintotakeholddeputychiefsmaybemorewillingtomakethejumpwithoutanet.InthethirdquarterCEOturnoverwasdown23%fromayearagoasnervousboardsstuckwiththeleaderstheyhadaccordingtoLiberumResearch.Astheeconomypicksupopportunitieswillaboundforaspiringleaders.Thedecisiontoquitaseniorpositiontolookforabetteroneisunconventional.ForyearsexecutivesandheadhuntershaveadheredtotherulethatthemostattractiveCEOcandidatesaretheoneswhomustbepoached.SaysKorn/FerryseniorpartnerDennisCarey:Ican’tthinkofasinglesearchI’vedonewhereaboardhasnotinstructedmetolookatsittingCEOsfirst.Thosewhojumpedwithoutajobhaven’talwayslandedintoppositionsquickly.EllenMarramquitaschiefofTropicanaadecadeagesayingshewantedtobeaCEO.ItwasayearbeforeshebecameheadofatinyInternet-basedcommoditiesexchange.RobertWillumstadleftCitigroupin2005withambitionstobeaCEO.Hefinallytookthatpostatamajorfinancialinstitutionthreeyearslater.Manyrecruiterssaytheolddisgraceisfadingfortopperformers.Thefinancialcrisishasmadeitmoreacceptabletobebetweenjobsortoleaveabadone.Thetraditionalrulewasit’ssafertostaywhereyouarebutthat’sbeenfundamentallyinvertedsaysoneheadhunter.Thepeoplewho’vebeenhurttheworstarethosewho’vestayedtoolong.Whichofthefollowingisthebesttitleforthetext
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 44
WhenLiamMcGeedepartedaspresidentofBankofAmericainAugusthisexplanationwassurprisinglystraightup.Ratherthancloakinghisexitintheusualvagueexcuseshecamerightoutandsaidhewasleavingtopursuemygoalofrunningacompany.BroadcastinghisambitionwasverymuchmydecisionMcGeesays.WithintwoweekshewastalkingforthefirsttimewiththeboardofHartfordFinancialServicesGroupwhichnamedhimCEOandchairmanonSeptember29.McGeesaysleavingwithoutapositionlinedupgavehimtimetoreflectonwhatkindofcompanyhewantedtorun.Italsosentaclearmessagetotheoutsideworldabouthisaspirations.AndMcGeeisn’talone.InrecentweekstheNo.2executivesatAvonandAmericanExpressquitwiththeexplanationthattheywerelookingforaCEOpost.Asboardsscrutinizesuccessionplansinresponsetoshareholderpressureexecutiveswhodon’tgetthenodalsomaywishtomoveon.Aturbulentbusinessenvironmentalsohasseniormanagerscautiousoflettingvaguepronouncementscloudtheirreputations.Asthefirstsignsofrecoverybegintotakeholddeputychiefsmaybemorewillingtomakethejumpwithoutanet.InthethirdquarterCEOturnoverwasdown23%fromayearagoasnervousboardsstuckwiththeleaderstheyhadaccordingtoLiberumResearch.Astheeconomypicksupopportunitieswillaboundforaspiringleaders.Thedecisiontoquitaseniorpositiontolookforabetteroneisunconventional.ForyearsexecutivesandheadhuntershaveadheredtotherulethatthemostattractiveCEOcandidatesaretheoneswhomustbepoached.SaysKorn/FerryseniorpartnerDennisCarey:Ican’tthinkofasinglesearchI’vedonewhereaboardhasnotinstructedmetolookatsittingCEOsfirst.Thosewhojumpedwithoutajobhaven’talwayslandedintoppositionsquickly.EllenMarramquitaschiefofTropicanaadecadeagesayingshewantedtobeaCEO.ItwasayearbeforeshebecameheadofatinyInternet-basedcommoditiesexchange.RobertWillumstadleftCitigroupin2005withambitionstobeaCEO.Hefinallytookthatpostatamajorfinancialinstitutionthreeyearslater.Manyrecruiterssaytheolddisgraceisfadingfortopperformers.Thefinancialcrisishasmadeitmoreacceptabletobebetweenjobsortoleaveabadone.Thetraditionalrulewasit’ssafertostaywhereyouarebutthat’sbeenfundamentallyinvertedsaysoneheadhunter.Thepeoplewho’vebeenhurttheworstarethosewho’vestayedtoolong.ThewordpoachedLine3Paragraph4mostprobablymeans
Inthepastyearalothaschangedinthefieldofhumanspaceflight.46InJanuaryPresidentGeorgeBushbrushedasidethefactthatAmerica’sentirespace-shuttlefleetwasgroundedwhenheannouncedgrandioseplanstoputpeoplebackonthemoonandthentolaunchamannedmissiontoMars.47InJuneBurtRutananAmericanaeronauticalengineershowedthathumanspaceflightwasnolongerthepreserveofgovernmentsbysendingamantotheedgeofspaceinSpaceShipOneaprivatelyfinancedvehiclethatcostaboutthesametobuildasaluxuryyacht.ThatwasfollowedinSeptemberbySirRichardBransontheBritishentrepreneurbehindtheVirginbrandannouncingthathehadsignedadealwithMr.RutantoworkonplansforafleetoffivesuborbitalvehiclesdevelopedfromSpaceShipOne. 48NowinthedyingdaysoftheyearAmerica’sCongresshaspassedabillthatunravelsatangleaboutwhowouldberesponsibleforregulatingthefledglingindustryandunderwhatterms.49ThebillalsoallowspassengerstoflyontheunderstandingthatthisnewgenerationofvehiclesmaynotbeassafeastakingacommercialflightbetweensayNewYorkandLondon. TheofficiallinefromVirginGalacticaasSirRichard’slatestventureismodestlynamedisthatthiscomingchangeinthelawmakesnopracticaldifferencetothefirm’splanssincetheydonotintendtoflyunlesstheycanmaketheirspacecraftassafeasaprivatejet.Butitmustsurelycomeassomesortofrelief.InanycaseWillWhitehorndirectorofcorporateaffairsatVirgin’sheadquartersinLondonandsoontobecomethepresidentofVirginGalacticasaysthatworkisunderwayonamock-upoftheinteriorofanewspacecraftthatwillholdfivepassengers.50Virginhasalreadycommitted$20mtowardslicensingtheSpaceShipOnetechnologyfromMr.RutanandhisfinancialbackerPaulAllenasoftwarebillionaire. 50Virginhasalreadycommitted$20mtowardslicensingtheSpaceShipOnetechnologyfromMr.RutanandhisfinancialbackerPaulAllenasoftwarebillionaire.
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 20
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 10
Inthepastyearalothaschangedinthefieldofhumanspaceflight.46InJanuaryPresidentGeorgeBushbrushedasidethefactthatAmerica’sentirespace-shuttlefleetwasgroundedwhenheannouncedgrandioseplanstoputpeoplebackonthemoonandthentolaunchamannedmissiontoMars.47InJuneBurtRutananAmericanaeronauticalengineershowedthathumanspaceflightwasnolongerthepreserveofgovernmentsbysendingamantotheedgeofspaceinSpaceShipOneaprivatelyfinancedvehiclethatcostaboutthesametobuildasaluxuryyacht.ThatwasfollowedinSeptemberbySirRichardBransontheBritishentrepreneurbehindtheVirginbrandannouncingthathehadsignedadealwithMr.RutantoworkonplansforafleetoffivesuborbitalvehiclesdevelopedfromSpaceShipOne. 48NowinthedyingdaysoftheyearAmerica’sCongresshaspassedabillthatunravelsatangleaboutwhowouldberesponsibleforregulatingthefledglingindustryandunderwhatterms.49ThebillalsoallowspassengerstoflyontheunderstandingthatthisnewgenerationofvehiclesmaynotbeassafeastakingacommercialflightbetweensayNewYorkandLondon. TheofficiallinefromVirginGalacticaasSirRichard’slatestventureismodestlynamedisthatthiscomingchangeinthelawmakesnopracticaldifferencetothefirm’splanssincetheydonotintendtoflyunlesstheycanmaketheirspacecraftassafeasaprivatejet.Butitmustsurelycomeassomesortofrelief.InanycaseWillWhitehorndirectorofcorporateaffairsatVirgin’sheadquartersinLondonandsoontobecomethepresidentofVirginGalacticasaysthatworkisunderwayonamock-upoftheinteriorofanewspacecraftthatwillholdfivepassengers.50Virginhasalreadycommitted$20mtowardslicensingtheSpaceShipOnetechnologyfromMr.RutanandhisfinancialbackerPaulAllenasoftwarebillionaire. 48NowinthedyingdaysoftheyearAmerica’sCongresshaspassedabillthatunravelsatangleaboutwhowouldberesponsibleforregulatingthefledglingindustryandunderwhatterms.
Anawkward-lookingcharactersuchasCyranodeBergeracmightsniffatthesuggestionbutrecentscientificresearchshowsbeautybrainsandbrawnmayinfactallbealliedwritesDrRajPersaud. 46Psychologistshaveconcludedthatwemaybedrawntothestereotypicallyattractivebecauseofwhattheirfacesrevealabouttheirintelligenceandsuccessinlaterlife.InAmericanresearchledbyProfessorLeslieZebrowitzofBrandeisUniversityhasshownanassociationbetweenfacialattractiveandIQ.Strangersbrieflyexposedtoatarget’sfacewereabletocorrectlyjudgeintelligenceatlevelssignificantlybetterthanchance. Thesameteamalsoresearchedhowaperson’sattractivenessmightbearrelationtotheirintelligence.Theyfoundthatgood-lookingpeopledidbetterinIQtestsastheyaged.47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.48Perhapsbecausethemoreattractivepeopleweretreatedasmoreintelligenttheyendeduphavingmorestimulatingandthereforeintelligence-enhancinglives. DoesthismeanthatyourfacereallycouldbeyourdestinySociologistsDrUlrichMuellerandDrAllanMazuroftheUniversityofMarburginGermanyrecentlyanalyzedthefinalyearphotographsofthe1950graduatesofWestPointintheUnitedStates.Dominantfacialappearancesturnedouttobeaconsistentpredictoroflater-rankattainment: Againtheybelievedtherecouldbeaself-fulfillingeffect.49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks. AteamattheRoyalCollegeofSurgeonsinDublinhasbeeninvestigatingthesensitivesubjectoflinksbetweenphysicalandmentalabnormalities.LedbyDoctorsRobinHennessyandJohnWaddingtontheteamusedanewlasersurface-scanningtechniquetomakea3-Danalysisofhowfacialshapemightvarywithbrainstructure.Theirfindingsshowedthatinearlyfetallifebrainandfacedevelopmentareintimatelyconnected.Fromthistheyconcludedthatabnormalitiesinbrainelaborationprobablyalsoaffectfacedevelopment. ThisaccordingtothemexplainsthestrikingfacialfeaturesofsomeonewithDown’ssyndrome.50Usingsimilartechniquestheteamalsodemonstratedhowotherdisorderslinkedtobrainaberrationscouldbeassociatedwithfacialalterations. Sotheverylatestscientificresearchsuggeststhatnobodyshouldtrytolooktooobviouslydifferentfromaverage. 46Psychologistshaveconcludedthatwemaybedrawntothestereotypicallyattractivebecauseofwhattheirfacesrevealabouttheirintelligenceandsuccessinlaterlife.
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 8
Inthepastyearalothaschangedinthefieldofhumanspaceflight.46InJanuaryPresidentGeorgeBushbrushedasidethefactthatAmerica’sentirespace-shuttlefleetwasgroundedwhenheannouncedgrandioseplanstoputpeoplebackonthemoonandthentolaunchamannedmissiontoMars.47InJuneBurtRutananAmericanaeronauticalengineershowedthathumanspaceflightwasnolongerthepreserveofgovernmentsbysendingamantotheedgeofspaceinSpaceShipOneaprivatelyfinancedvehiclethatcostaboutthesametobuildasaluxuryyacht.ThatwasfollowedinSeptemberbySirRichardBransontheBritishentrepreneurbehindtheVirginbrandannouncingthathehadsignedadealwithMr.RutantoworkonplansforafleetoffivesuborbitalvehiclesdevelopedfromSpaceShipOne. 48NowinthedyingdaysoftheyearAmerica’sCongresshaspassedabillthatunravelsatangleaboutwhowouldberesponsibleforregulatingthefledglingindustryandunderwhatterms.49ThebillalsoallowspassengerstoflyontheunderstandingthatthisnewgenerationofvehiclesmaynotbeassafeastakingacommercialflightbetweensayNewYorkandLondon. TheofficiallinefromVirginGalacticaasSirRichard’slatestventureismodestlynamedisthatthiscomingchangeinthelawmakesnopracticaldifferencetothefirm’splanssincetheydonotintendtoflyunlesstheycanmaketheirspacecraftassafeasaprivatejet.Butitmustsurelycomeassomesortofrelief.InanycaseWillWhitehorndirectorofcorporateaffairsatVirgin’sheadquartersinLondonandsoontobecomethepresidentofVirginGalacticasaysthatworkisunderwayonamock-upoftheinteriorofanewspacecraftthatwillholdfivepassengers.50Virginhasalreadycommitted$20mtowardslicensingtheSpaceShipOnetechnologyfromMr.RutanandhisfinancialbackerPaulAllenasoftwarebillionaire. 46InJanuaryPresidentGeorgeBushbrushedasidethefactthatAmerica’sentirespace-shuttlefleetwasgroundedwhenheannouncedgrandioseplanstoputpeoplebackonthemoonandthentolaunchamannedmissiontoMars.
Whenthereisbloodinthewateritisonlynaturalthatdorsalfinsswirlaroundexcitedly.NowthatAmerica’shousingmarketisailingpredatorshavetheirsightsonthecountry’scredit-cardmarket.AnalystsatGoldmanSachsreckonthatcredit-cardlossescouldreach$99billionifcontagionspreadsfromsubprimemortgagestootherformsofconsumercredit.Signsofstrainareclearlyvisible.Therearerisesinboththecharge-offanddelinquencyrateswhichmeasuretheshareofbalancesthatareuncollectableormorethan30dayslaterespectively.HSBCannouncedlastmonththatithadtakena$1.4billionchargeinitsAmericanconsumer-financebusinesspartlybecauseofweaknessamongcardborrowers. Itistooearlytopanicthough.Charge-offsanddelinquenciesarestilllow.AccordingtoMoody’saratingagencythethird-quarterdelinquencyrateof3.89%wasalmostafullpercentagepointbelowthehistoricalaverage.Thedeteriorationinratescanbepartlyexplainedbytechnicalfactors.AchangeinAmerica’spersonal-bankruptcylawsin2005ledtoanabruptfallinbankruptcyfilingswhichinturnaccountforabigchunkofcredit-cardlosses;thenumberoffilingsandthuscharge-offrateswouldberisingagainwhetherornotoverallconditionsforborrowersweregettingworse. Theindustryalsoreportssolidpaymentrateswhichshowhowmuchoftheirdebtconsumerspayoffeachmonth.Andconfidenceincredit-cardasset-backedsecuritiesisprettyfirmdespiteparalysisinothercornersofstructuredfinance.DennisMoroneyofTowerGrouparesearchfirmpredictsthatissuancevolumesfor2007willendupbeing25%higherthanlastyear. Directchannelsofinfectionbetweenthesubprime-mortgagecrisisandthecredit-cardmarketcertainlyexist:consumersarelikeliertoloaduponcredit-carddebtnowthathome-equityloansaredryingup.Butcardissuerslookatcashflowratherthanassetvaluessofallinghousepricesdonotnecessarilytriggerachangeinborrowers’creditworthiness.Theymayevenworktoissuers’advantage.Theincentivesforconsumerstokeeppayingthemortgagedecreaseifpropertiesareworthlessthanthevalueoftheloan;carddebtriseshigherupthelistofrepaymentprioritiesasaresult. Cardissuersarealsoabletorespondmuchmoreswiftlyandflexiblytostormierconditionsthanmortgagelendersarebychanginginterestratesoralteringcreditlimits.Thatshouldintheoryreducetheriskofarapidrepricingofassets."Wearenotgoingtowakeuponedayandtotallyrevaluetheloans"saysGaryPerlinCapitalOne’schieffinancialofficer. Ifasuddensubprime-stylemeltdowninthecredit-cardmarketisimprobabletherisksofasustaineddownturnaremuchmorereal.IflowerhousepricesandacontractionincreditpushAmericaintorecessiontheindustrywillundoubtedlyfaceagrimmerfuture.Keepwatchingforthosedorsalfins. Whydoestheauthormentiondorsalfinswhichareirrelevanttothetopic
FORthepasttwoyearsinSiliconValleythecentreofAmerica’stechnologyindustryconference-goershaveentertainedthemselvesplayingaguessinggame:howmanytimeswillaspeakermentionthephrase"longtail"ItisusuallyahighnumberthankstotheinfluenceofthelongtailtheorywhichwasfirstdevelopedbyChrisAndersontheeditorofWiredmagazineinanarticlein2004.Thoughtechnologistsandbloggerschuckleathoweverybusinesspresentationnowhastohaveitslong-tailsectionmostareenviousofMrAndersonwhosebrainwavequicklybecamethemostfashionablebusinessideaaround. Whetherablockbusterfilmabestsellingnovelorachart-toppingrapsongpopularcultureidolizesthehit.Companiesdevotethemselvestocreatingthembecausethecostofdistributionandthelimitsofshelfspaceinphysicalshopsmeanthatprofitabilitydependsonahighvolumeofsales.Butaroundthebeginningofthiscenturyagroupofinternetcompaniesrealizedthatwithendlessshelvesandanationaloreveninternationalaudienceonlinetheycouldofferahugerangeofproducts—andmakemoneyatthesametime. ThenichetheobscureandthespecialistMrAndersonargueswillgaingroundattheexpenseofthehit.Asevidencehepointstoadropinthenumberofcompaniesthattraditionallycalculatetheirrevenue/salesratioaccordingtothe80/20rule—wherethetopfifthofproductscontributefour-fifthsofrevenues.EcastaSanFranciscodigitaljukeboxcompanyfoundthat98%ofits10000albumssoldatleastonetrackeverythreemonths.ExpressedinthelanguageofstatisticstheexperiencesofEcastandothercompaniessuchasAmazonanonlinebooksellersuggestthatproductsdowninthelongtailofastatisticaldistributionaddedtogethercanbehighlyprofitable.Theinternethelpspeoplefindtheirwaytorelativelyobscurematerialwithrecommendationsandreviewsbyotherpeopleandforthosewillingtohavetheirartistictastespredictedbyapieceofsoftwarecomputerprogramswhichanalyzepastselections. Long-tailenthusiastsarguethatthewholeofculturewillbenefitnotjustcommercialenterprises.Televisionfilmandmusicaresuchbewitchingmediaintheirownrightthatmanypeoplearequitehappytowatchandlistentowhatthemainstreamprovides.Butifindividualshavetheopportunitytopickbettermoreideallysuitedentertainmentfromafarwiderselectiontheywilltakeitaccordingtothetheoryofthelongtail.Someanalystsreckonthatentirepopulationsmightbecomehappierandwiseroncetheyhaveaccesstothousandsofdocumentariesindependentfilmsandsub-genresofeverykindofmusicinsteadofbeingsubjectedtowhatMrAndersoncallsthetyrannyoflowest-common-denominatorfare.Thatmightbetakingthingsabitfar.Butthelongtailiscertainlyoneoftheinternet’sbettergiftstohumanity. The80/20ruleisusedto
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 4
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 2
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