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41. Two types of stress: There are basically two types of stress placed on human beings--physical a...
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41.Twotypesofstress: Therearebasicallytwotype
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41.Twotypesofstress: Therearebasicallytwotype
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MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 20
Themajorityofsuccessfulseniormanagersdonotcloselyfollowtheclassicalrationalmodeloffirstclarifyinggoalsassessingtheproblemformulatingoptionsestimatinglikelihoodofsuccessmakingadecisionandonlythentakingactiontoimplementthedecision.Ratherintheirday-by-daytacticalactivitiestheseseniorexecutivesrelyonwhatisvaguelytermed"intuition"tomanageanetworkofinterrelatedproblemsthatrequirethemtodealwithambiguityinconsistencynoveltyandsurprise;andtointegrateactionintotheprocessofthinking. Generationsofwritersonmanagementhaverecognizedthatsomepracticingmanagersrelyheavilyonintuition.Ingeneralhoweversuchwritersdisplayapoorgraspofwhatintuitionis.Someseeitastheoppositeofrationality;othersviewitasanexcuseofcapriciousness. Isenberg’srecentresearchonthecognitiveprocessesofseniormanagersrevealsthatmanagers’intuitionisneitherofthese.Ratherseniormanagersuseintuitioninatleastfivedistinctways.Firsttheyintuitivelysensewhenaproblemexists.Secondmanagersrelyonintuitiontoperformwell-learnedbehaviorpatternsrapidly.Thisintuitionisnotarbitraryorirrationalbutisbasedonyearsofpainstakingpracticeandpersonalexperiencethatbuildskills.Athirdfunctionofintuitionistosynthesizeisolatedbitsofdataandpracticeintoanintegratedpictureofteninan"Aha!"experience.Fourthsomemanagersuseintuitionasacheckontheresultsofmorerationalanalysis.Mostseniorexecutivesarefamiliarwiththeformaldecisionanalysismodelsandtoolsandthosewhousesuchsystematicmethodsforreachingdecisionsareoccasionallysuspiciousofsolutionssuggestedbythesemethodswhichruncountertotheirsenseofthecorrectcourseofaction.Finallymanagerscanuseintuitiontobypassin-depthanalysisandmoverapidlytofindoutaplausiblesolution.Usedinthiswayintuitionisanalmostinstantaneouscognitiveprocessinwhichamanagerrecognizesfamiliarpatterns. Oneoftheimplicationsoftheintuitivestyleofexecutivemanagementisthat"thinking"isinseparablefromacting.Sincemanagersoften"know"whatisrightbeforetheycananalyzeandexplainittheyfrequentlyactfirstandexplainlater.Analysisisinvariablytiedtoactioninthinking/actingcyclesinwhichmanagersdevelopthoughtsabouttheircompaniesandorganizationsnotbyanalyzingaproblematicsituationandthenactingbutbyactingandanalyzingincloseconcert. Giventhegreatuncertaintyofmanyofthemanagementissuesthattheyfaceseniormanagersofteninitiateacourseofactionsimplytolearnmoreaboutanissue.Theythenusetheresultsoftheactiontodevelopamorecompleteunderstandingoftheissue.Oneimplicationofthinking/actingcyclesisthatactionisoftenpartofdefiningtheproblemnotjustofimplementingthesolution.454words Thelogicalorganizationofthefirstparagraphofthetextisthat
Childrenattendingschoolslocatedinhigh-trafficzoneshavea45percentincreasedriskofdevelopingasthmaeventhoughtimespentatschoolonlyaccountsforaboutone-thirdofachild’swakinghoursaccordingtonewresearch. Asthmaisthemostcommonchronicchildhoodillnessindevelopedcountriesandhasbeenlinkedtoenvironmentalfactorssuchastraffic-relatedairpollution."Whileresidentialtraffic-relatedpollutionhasbeenassociatedwithasthmatherehasbeenlittlestudyoftheeffectsoftrafficexposureatschoolonnewonsetasthma"saysRobMcConnellprofessorofpreventivemedicineatUSC’sKeckSchoolofMedicine."Exposuretopollutionatlocationsotherthanhomeespeciallywherechildrenspendalargeportionoftheirdayandmayengageinphysicalactivityappearstoinfluenceasthmariskaswell." ThestudyappearsonlineinthejournalEnvironmentalHealthPerspectives.ThestudydrewupondatafromtheChildren’sHealthStudyCHSalongitudinalstudyofchildreninSouthernCaliforniacommunitiesthatwasdesignedtoinvestigatethechroniceffectsofairpollutiononrespiratoryhealth.Usingacohortof2497kindergartenandfirstgradechildrenwhowereasthma-freewhentheyenteredthestudyresearchersexaminedtherelationshipoflocaltrafficaroundschoolsandhomestodiagnosisnewonsetasthmathatoccurredduringthreeyearsoffollow-up.Traffic-relatedpollutionexposurewasassessedbasedonamodelthattookintoaccounttrafficvolumedistancetomajorroadwaysfromhomeandschoolandlocalweatherconditions. Regionalambientozonenitrogendioxide二氧化氮andparticulatematterweremeasuredcontinuouslyatonecentralsiteineachofthe13studycommunities.Thedesignallowedinvestigatorstoexaminethejointeffectsoflocaltraffic-relatedpollutionexposureatschoolandathomeandofregionalpollutionexposureaffectingtheentirecommunity.Researchersfound120casesofnewasthma.Theriskassociatedwithtraffic-relatedpollutionexposureatschoolswasalmostashighasforresidentialexposureandcombinedexposureaccountingfortimespentathomeandatschoolhadaslightlylargereffect.AlthoughchildrenspendlesstimeatschoolthanathomephysicaleducationandotheractivitiesthattakeplaceatschoolmayincreaseventilationratesandthedoseofpollutantsgettingintothelungsMcConnellnotes.Traffic-relatedpollutantlevelsmayalsobehigherduringthemorninghourswhenchildrenarearrivingatschool. Despiteastatelawthatprohibitsschooldistrictsfrombuildingcampuseswithin500feetofafreewaymanySouthernCaliforniaschoolsarelocatednearhigh-trafficareasincludingbusysurfacestreets. "It’simportanttounderstandhowthesemicro-environmentswherechildrenspentalotoftheirtimeoutsideofthehomeareimpactingtheirhealth"McConnellsays."Policiesthatreduceexposuretohigh-trafficenvironmentsmayhelptopreventthisdisease."ThestudywasfundedbygrantsfromtheNationalInstituteofEnvironmentalHealthSciencestheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgencytheSouthCoastAirQualityManagementDistrictandtheHastingsFoundation. Themethodofpreventingasthmaisto
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 18
41Conflicts:Ifyoudogetaplaceinthestudentdormitoryitislikelythatyouwillhavetoshareyourlivingspacewithoneotherstudent.WhilehavinganAmericanroommatewillhelpyoutolearnmoreaboutAmericanwaystherewillprobablybemanytimesthatdiscomfortorconflictwillariseduetoculturaldifferences.42Sex:WithregardtosexingeneralAmericanbehaviorisquitedifferentfromthenormsfoundinChina.43RelationshipBetweenTeachers&Students:OnthecampusparticularlywhereclassesaresmallIfoundastrangeinformalitythatcharacterizedtherelationshipbetweenstudentsandtheirprofessors.44Gifts:InmyinteractionwithAmericanfriendsInoticedthattheconceptofagiftisquitedifferenthere.ManythingswegivetoeachotherinChinaarenotcalledgiftsbutareconsideredtobeareflectionofordinarydutiesandmutualobligations.AccustomedaswearetousingthewordgifttorefertosomethingvaluablegivenonspecialoccasionsitcomesasasurprisetoseehowoftenthewordisusedinAmerica.IntheUnitedStatesgiftsgivenonmanydifferentoccasionsareonlyservices.45SocialIntercourse.WhenyoudoenterAmericanhomesyouwillhaveanopportunitytoobservedifferentwaysofgreetingpeople.OnthewholeAmericanstendtobefarmorephysicalthanweintheirgreetings.[A]Iwasastonishedforexamplewhenafriendtoldmethathewasofferingtocareforhisyoungerbrotherandsistersothathisfathercouldtakeavacationforhisbirthday--thiswasagifttohim.Forusthiswouldbeconsidereddutyratherthanagift.Evenbetweenfriendsgesturesofthissortmightbeconsideredgiftshere.[B]WhilemanystudentsdocalltheirprofessorsProfessorsoandsoorDr.soandsosomeprofessorsprefertobecalledfamiliarlybytheirfirstnames.Andinthespiritofinformalitymanyprofessorsmayinvitestudentstotheirhomesorcanbeseenchattingwithstudentsoveramealoracupofcoffeeintheschoolcafeteria.Agoodnumberofinstructorsevenrequestthatstudentsfilloutclassevaluationformswhichassessthecontentandpresentationofthecourse.[C]Myroommatewasverysociableandhadmanyboyfriendswhocametovisitoftenverylate.OnenightaftermidnightIhadtostayinthebathroomforanextra40minutesbecauseIhadheardaman’svoiceinmyroom.MyroommatedidnotrealizehowawkwardIwouldfeelmeetingamanwhileIwasinmynightgown.YouseeAmericanstudentstendtobemuchmorecasualaboutthesematters.[D]Onmanyoccasionsforinstanceclosefriendsorsometimesevencasualacquaintancesembraceorkisseachotheronthecheeksingreetingorbiddingfarewell.Itmayevenhappenthatwherecouplesareclosefriendsthetwohusbandswillkisstheotherman’swife![E]IntheUnitedStatesforexampleifastudentwantstoinvitehisteachertoadinnerpartytheinvitationshouldbesentaweekorsobeforethepartydate.Iftheinvitationisextendedonlythreeorfourdaysbeforethepartydatetheteacherwillfeelheisnothighlyregarded.[F]ForexamplemanyAmericanstudentsseemtoliketolistentopopularandsometimesloudmusicwhilestudyingintheirrooms.Sometimestheywillevenleavethemusiconwhentheyleavetheroom.ForsomereasonmanywilltellyoumusichelpsthemtorelaxandconcentrateanideawhichotherforeignstudentsandIfoundverystrangeanddisturbing.We’dliketostudyquietlywithoutanydisturbance.
Clatteringkeyboardsmayseemthewhitenoiseofthemodernagebuttheybetraymoreinformationthanunwarytypistsrealize.Simplybyanalyzingaudiorecordingsofkeyboardclattercomputerscientistscannowreconstructanaccuratetranscriptofwhatwastyped--includingpasswords.41.Suchsnoopingispossiblebecauseeachkeyproducesacharacteristicdickshapedbyitspositiononthekeyboardthevigorandhandpositionofthetypistandthetypeofkeyboardused.Butpastattemptstodecipherkeyboardsoundswereonlymodestlysuccessfulrequiringatrainingsessioninwhichthecomputermatchedaknowntranscripttoanaudiorecordingofeachkeybeingstruck.42.Furthermoreeachnewtypistorkeyboardrequiredafreshtranscriptandtrainingsessionlimitingthemethod’sappealtowould-behackers.NowinablowtoacousticsecurityDougTygarandhiscolleaguesattheUniversityofCaliforniaBerkeleyhavepublisheddetailsofanapproachthatreaches96%accuracyevenwithoutalabeledtrainingtranscript.43.ThesoftwaretentativelyassignseachclickaletterbasedonitsfrequencythenteststhemessagecreatedbythisassignmentusingstatisticalmodelsoftheEnglishlanguage.Forexamplecertainlettersorwordsaremorelikelytooccurtogether-ifanunknownkeystrokefollowsatitismuchmorelikelytobeanhthananx.Similarlythewordsforexamplemakelikelierbedfellowsthanfurexample.Inafinalrefinementtheresearchersemployedamethodmanystudentswoulddowelltodeployontermpapers.automatedspellchecking.ByrepeatedlyrevisingunlikelyorincorrectletterassignmentsDr.Tygar’ssoftwareextractssensefromsonicchaos.Thatsaidthemethoddoeshaveonelimitation:inordertoapplythelanguagemodelatleastfiveminutesoftherecordedtypinghadtobeinstandardEnglishthoughinprincipleanysystematiclanguageoralphabetwouldwork.Butoncethoserequirementsaremettheprogramcandecodeanythingfromepicprosetorandomizedten-characterpasswords.44.Hesaysitisquitesimpletofindtheinstructionsneededtobuildaparabolicorlasermicrophoneontheweb.Youcouldjustpointonefromoutsidethroughanofficewindowtomakearecording.Andashepointsoutwould-beeavesdroppersmightnotevenneedtheirownrecordingequipmentaslaptopcomputersincreasinglycomeequippedwithbuilt-inmicrophonesthatcouldbehijacked.45.Hiscomputerswerelesssuccessfulatparsingrecordingsmadeinnoisyrooms.Ultimatelythoughmoresophisticatedrecordingarrayscouldovercomeevenbackgroundnoiserenderinganytypedtextvulnerable.Dr.Tygarthereforerecommendsthattypedpasswordsbephasedouttobereplacedwithbiometricchecksormultipletypesofauthorizationthatcombineapasswordwithsomeformofsilentverificationclickingonapre-chosenpictureinaselectionofimagesforexample.Looselipsmaystillsinkshipsbutforthemomentitseemsthatanindiscreetkeystrokecandojustasmuchdamage.[A]ThissortofacousticanalysismightsoundliketheexclusiveprovinceofspiesandspooksbutaccordingtoDr.Tygarsuchattacksarenotasesotericasyoumightexpect.[B]Thesoundsoftypingcanbedecodedwhichcanbeusedtodecodepasswordsoifyouaretypingrandomsecurepasswords.[C]Thenewapproachemploysmethodsdevelopedforspeech-recognitionsoftwaretogrouptogetherallthesimilar-soundingkeystrokesinarecordinggeneratinganalphabetofclicks.[D]ToprotectagainstthesesonicincursionsDr.Tygarsuggestsasimpleremedy:turnuptheradio.[E]Themajoradvancehereisthatitnolongerrequireshoursoftrainingthemodelinordertocreateausablemappingofkeysoundstoletters.[F]Andincontrasttomanytypesofcomputerespionagetheprocessissimplerequiringonlyacheapmicrophoneandadesktopcomputer.[G]Thusschooledthesoftwarecouldstillidentifyonly80%ofthecharactersinadifferenttranscriptofthesametypistonthesamemachine.
ThedayofterrorattheVirginiaPolytechnicandStateUniversityinBlacksburgbeganatabout7:15a.m.withtheshootingofawomanandamaleresidentadviseronthefourthfloorofadormbuildingoncampusKristenBensleyafreshmanwholivedbelowthefloorwheretheshootingoccurredtoldTIME"Therewereminorsgoingonabouttheassailantwasfightingwithhisgirlfriendorsomethingofthatnature."Bensleynotesthatonlyresidentscangetintothebuildingusingaspecific"passport"thatisacardthatonehastoswipeinordertoopendoorsbefore10a.m.Ifhewasanoutsidersomeonewouldhavehadtolethimin.Ormorelikelyhewasaresidentofthedormhimself.Ifsohowdidbekeepsomuchammunitionunnoticed Unlikehighschoolsmostuniversitiescan’tbeefupsecuritywithametaldetectorortwo.SowhatcanbedonetoprotectstudentsOtherquestionsremainunanswered.Whywasthereatwo-hourgapbetweentheincidentatthedormandafarmorefataloneacrosscampusAtonepointthatledtotheorizingthatmorethanonegunmanwasinvolved.Thegunmanwhokilledatleast30peopleatNorrisHallshortlyafter9a.m.wasdescribedbysomesourcesasanAsianman. Ithasbeenasurrealtimeforthestudents.BrandonStiltnerasenioraerospaceengineeringstudentandJonathanHessaseniormechanicalengineerwerewatchingTValldaybutbynoonthey’dhadenough."Wedecidedweneededtodosomething"Stiltnersaid."Wewereworthlesssittingaround."Sotheytooktheirsix-footVirginiaTechsignoffthewallandloggedintoFacebook.Withinthenextfewhours100peoplerepliedtotheire-mailrequestforavigil. By8p.m.hundredsbfstudentsbeganfilingdownthestepsoftheWarMemorialChapeltowardthedrillfield.Clustersoftwoandthreestudentsstoodtogetherinsilence.Slowlytheybegantolineuptosigntheboard."I’mstillreallyindisbelief"saysStiltner.Theshockoftheday’sshootingssankinHesssaidashecarriedthesignacrosscampusforthevigil."Ithitme"Hesssaid"toknowthatitwasinthesebuildings."ThemediacrewsthatswarmedcampuswerealsosurrealtoHessandStiltner."Wecouldlookoutourwindowandseeexactlywhat’sonTV"Stiltnersays.HewatchedhissigncrowdedwithinitialsandprayersawaitingthenamesofthevictimsHeshuddered."IhopeIdon’thaveanynastysurprises. Whichofthefollowingistreeaccordingtothefirstparagraph
"TheimpulsetoexcessamongyoungBritonsremainsaspowerfulaseverbuttheforcethatusedtokeeptheimpulseincheckhasallbutdisappeared"claimedanewspaper.Legislationthatmadeiteasiertogetholdofadrinkwas"anActfortheincreaseofdrunkennessandimmorality"assertedapolitician. Thefirststatementcomesfrom2005thesecondfrom1830.Onbothoccasionstheobjectofscornwasaparliamentarybillthatpromisedtosweepaway"antiquated"licensinglaws.AsliberalregulationscameintoforcethisweekBritonsonbothsidesofthedebateunwittinglyfolloweda19th-centuryscript. Reformersthenasnowtookabenignviewofhumannature.MakeboozecheaperandmorereadilyavailablesaidtheliberalisersanddrinkerswoulddevelopsensiblecontinentalEuropean-styleways.Nonsenseretortedthecritics.Habitsarehardtochange;ifBritonscandrinkeasilytheywilldrinkmore. Worryinglyformodernadvocatesofliberalisationearlierdoomsayersturnedouttoberight.Between1820and1840consumptionofmaltwhichisusedtomakebeerincreasedbymorethan50%.WorseBritonsdevelopedakeenertasteforwhatThomasCarlylecalled"liquidmadness"—ginandotherspirits. Thebacklashwasfierce.Criticspointedtowidespreaddebaucheryinthemoredisreputablesectionsoftheworkingclass.Theywereparticularlyworriedaboutthepeoplewhoinalateragecametobeknownas"ladettes".AnacutefearsaysVirginiaBerridgewhostudiestemperanceattheLondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicinewasthatwomenwouldpassontheirsinfulwaystotheirchildren. Inthe19thcenturytemperanceorganisationssetuptheirownnewspaperstoeducatethepublicabouttheconsequencesofexcess.Thatatleasthaschanged:thesedaysthemainstreammediarailagainstthedemondrinkallbythemselves. Itcanbeinferredfromthesecondparagraphthat
Directions. Writeanessayof160--200wordsbasedonthefollowingsetofpictures.Inyouressayyoushould 1describethepicturesbriefly 2interprettheirintendedmeaningand 3pointouttheirimplicationsinourlife. YoushouldwriteneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.
Exactlywherewewillstandinthelongwaragainstdiseasebytheyear2050isimpossibletosay.46Butifdevelopmentsinresearchmaintaintheircurrentpaceitseemslikelythatacombinationofimprovedattentiontodietaryandenvironmentalfactorsalongwithadvancesingenetherapyandproteintargeteddrugswillhavevirtuallyeliminatedmostmajorclassesofdisease.Fromaneconomicstandpointthebestnewsmaybethattheseaccomplishmentscouldbeaccompaniedbyadropinhealth-carecosts.47Costsmayevenfallasdiseasesarebroughtundercontrolusingpinpointedshorttermtherapiesnowbeingdeveloped.By2050therewillbefewerhospitalsandsurgicalprocedureswillbelargelyrestrictedtothetreatmentofaccidentsandotherformsoftrauma.Spendingonnonacutecarebothinnursingfacilitiesandinhomeswillalsofallsharplyasmoreelderlypeopleleadhealthylivesuntilclosetodeath.Oneresultofmedicine’ssuccessincontrollingdiseasewillbeadramaticincreaseinlifeexpectancy.48Theextentofthatincreaseisahighlyspeculativematterbutitisworththatmedicalsciencehasalreadyhelpedtomaketheveryoldcurrentlydefinedasthoseover85yearsofagethefastestgrowingsegmentofthepopulation.Between1960and1995theU.S.populationasawholeincreasedbyabout45%whilethesegmentover85yearsofagegrewbyalmost300%.49Therehasbeenasimilarexplosioninthepopulationofcentenarianswiththeresultthatsurvivaltotheageof100isnolongerthenewsworthyfeatthatitwasonlyafewdecadesago.U.S.CensusBureauprojectionsalreadyforecastdramaticincreaseinthenumberofcentenariansinthenext50years:4millionin2050comparedwith37000in1990.50AlthoughCensusBureaucalculationsprojectanincreaseinaveragelifespanofonlyeightyeasbytheyear2050someexertsbelievethatthehumanlifespanshouldnotbegintoencounteranytheoreticalnaturallimitsbefore120years.Withcontinuingadvancesinmolecularmedicineandagrowingunderstandingoftheagingprocessthatlimitcouldriseto130yearsormore.
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 4
Clatteringkeyboardsmayseemthewhitenoiseofthemodernagebuttheybetraymoreinformationthanunwarytypistsrealize.Simplybyanalyzingaudiorecordingsofkeyboardclattercomputerscientistscannowreconstructanaccuratetranscriptofwhatwastyped--includingpasswords.41.Suchsnoopingispossiblebecauseeachkeyproducesacharacteristicdickshapedbyitspositiononthekeyboardthevigorandhandpositionofthetypistandthetypeofkeyboardused.Butpastattemptstodecipherkeyboardsoundswereonlymodestlysuccessfulrequiringatrainingsessioninwhichthecomputermatchedaknowntranscripttoanaudiorecordingofeachkeybeingstruck.42.Furthermoreeachnewtypistorkeyboardrequiredafreshtranscriptandtrainingsessionlimitingthemethod’sappealtowould-behackers.NowinablowtoacousticsecurityDougTygarandhiscolleaguesattheUniversityofCaliforniaBerkeleyhavepublisheddetailsofanapproachthatreaches96%accuracyevenwithoutalabeledtrainingtranscript.43.ThesoftwaretentativelyassignseachclickaletterbasedonitsfrequencythenteststhemessagecreatedbythisassignmentusingstatisticalmodelsoftheEnglishlanguage.Forexamplecertainlettersorwordsaremorelikelytooccurtogether-ifanunknownkeystrokefollowsatitismuchmorelikelytobeanhthananx.Similarlythewordsforexamplemakelikelierbedfellowsthanfurexample.Inafinalrefinementtheresearchersemployedamethodmanystudentswoulddowelltodeployontermpapers.automatedspellchecking.ByrepeatedlyrevisingunlikelyorincorrectletterassignmentsDr.Tygar’ssoftwareextractssensefromsonicchaos.Thatsaidthemethoddoeshaveonelimitation:inordertoapplythelanguagemodelatleastfiveminutesoftherecordedtypinghadtobeinstandardEnglishthoughinprincipleanysystematiclanguageoralphabetwouldwork.Butoncethoserequirementsaremettheprogramcandecodeanythingfromepicprosetorandomizedten-characterpasswords.44.Hesaysitisquitesimpletofindtheinstructionsneededtobuildaparabolicorlasermicrophoneontheweb.Youcouldjustpointonefromoutsidethroughanofficewindowtomakearecording.Andashepointsoutwould-beeavesdroppersmightnotevenneedtheirownrecordingequipmentaslaptopcomputersincreasinglycomeequippedwithbuilt-inmicrophonesthatcouldbehijacked.45.Hiscomputerswerelesssuccessfulatparsingrecordingsmadeinnoisyrooms.Ultimatelythoughmoresophisticatedrecordingarrayscouldovercomeevenbackgroundnoiserenderinganytypedtextvulnerable.Dr.Tygarthereforerecommendsthattypedpasswordsbephasedouttobereplacedwithbiometricchecksormultipletypesofauthorizationthatcombineapasswordwithsomeformofsilentverificationclickingonapre-chosenpictureinaselectionofimagesforexample.Looselipsmaystillsinkshipsbutforthemomentitseemsthatanindiscreetkeystrokecandojustasmuchdamage.[A]ThissortofacousticanalysismightsoundliketheexclusiveprovinceofspiesandspooksbutaccordingtoDr.Tygarsuchattacksarenotasesotericasyoumightexpect.[B]Thesoundsoftypingcanbedecodedwhichcanbeusedtodecodepasswordsoifyouaretypingrandomsecurepasswords.[C]Thenewapproachemploysmethodsdevelopedforspeech-recognitionsoftwaretogrouptogetherallthesimilar-soundingkeystrokesinarecordinggeneratinganalphabetofclicks.[D]ToprotectagainstthesesonicincursionsDr.Tygarsuggestsasimpleremedy:turnuptheradio.[E]Themajoradvancehereisthatitnolongerrequireshoursoftrainingthemodelinordertocreateausablemappingofkeysoundstoletters.[F]Andincontrasttomanytypesofcomputerespionagetheprocessissimplerequiringonlyacheapmicrophoneandadesktopcomputer.[G]Thusschooledthesoftwarecouldstillidentifyonly80%ofthecharactersinadifferenttranscriptofthesametypistonthesamemachine.
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 6
Exactlywherewewillstandinthelongwaragainstdiseasebytheyear2050isimpossibletosay.46Butifdevelopmentsinresearchmaintaintheircurrentpaceitseemslikelythatacombinationofimprovedattentiontodietaryandenvironmentalfactorsalongwithadvancesingenetherapyandproteintargeteddrugswillhavevirtuallyeliminatedmostmajorclassesofdisease.Fromaneconomicstandpointthebestnewsmaybethattheseaccomplishmentscouldbeaccompaniedbyadropinhealth-carecosts.47Costsmayevenfallasdiseasesarebroughtundercontrolusingpinpointedshorttermtherapiesnowbeingdeveloped.By2050therewillbefewerhospitalsandsurgicalprocedureswillbelargelyrestrictedtothetreatmentofaccidentsandotherformsoftrauma.Spendingonnonacutecarebothinnursingfacilitiesandinhomeswillalsofallsharplyasmoreelderlypeopleleadhealthylivesuntilclosetodeath.Oneresultofmedicine’ssuccessincontrollingdiseasewillbeadramaticincreaseinlifeexpectancy.48Theextentofthatincreaseisahighlyspeculativematterbutitisworththatmedicalsciencehasalreadyhelpedtomaketheveryoldcurrentlydefinedasthoseover85yearsofagethefastestgrowingsegmentofthepopulation.Between1960and1995theU.S.populationasawholeincreasedbyabout45%whilethesegmentover85yearsofagegrewbyalmost300%.49Therehasbeenasimilarexplosioninthepopulationofcentenarianswiththeresultthatsurvivaltotheageof100isnolongerthenewsworthyfeatthatitwasonlyafewdecadesago.U.S.CensusBureauprojectionsalreadyforecastdramaticincreaseinthenumberofcentenariansinthenext50years:4millionin2050comparedwith37000in1990.50AlthoughCensusBureaucalculationsprojectanincreaseinaveragelifespanofonlyeightyeasbytheyear2050someexertsbelievethatthehumanlifespanshouldnotbegintoencounteranytheoreticalnaturallimitsbefore120years.Withcontinuingadvancesinmolecularmedicineandagrowingunderstandingoftheagingprocessthatlimitcouldriseto130yearsormore.
Themajorityofsuccessfulseniormanagersdonotcloselyfollowtheclassicalrationalmodeloffirstclarifyinggoalsassessingtheproblemformulatingoptionsestimatinglikelihoodofsuccessmakingadecisionandonlythentakingactiontoimplementthedecision.Ratherintheirday-by-daytacticalactivitiestheseseniorexecutivesrelyonwhatisvaguelytermed"intuition"tomanageanetworkofinterrelatedproblemsthatrequirethemtodealwithambiguityinconsistencynoveltyandsurprise;andtointegrateactionintotheprocessofthinking. Generationsofwritersonmanagementhaverecognizedthatsomepracticingmanagersrelyheavilyonintuition.Ingeneralhoweversuchwritersdisplayapoorgraspofwhatintuitionis.Someseeitastheoppositeofrationality;othersviewitasanexcuseofcapriciousness. Isenberg’srecentresearchonthecognitiveprocessesofseniormanagersrevealsthatmanagers’intuitionisneitherofthese.Ratherseniormanagersuseintuitioninatleastfivedistinctways.Firsttheyintuitivelysensewhenaproblemexists.Secondmanagersrelyonintuitiontoperformwell-learnedbehaviorpatternsrapidly.Thisintuitionisnotarbitraryorirrationalbutisbasedonyearsofpainstakingpracticeandpersonalexperiencethatbuildskills.Athirdfunctionofintuitionistosynthesizeisolatedbitsofdataandpracticeintoanintegratedpictureofteninan"Aha!"experience.Fourthsomemanagersuseintuitionasacheckontheresultsofmorerationalanalysis.Mostseniorexecutivesarefamiliarwiththeformaldecisionanalysismodelsandtoolsandthosewhousesuchsystematicmethodsforreachingdecisionsareoccasionallysuspiciousofsolutionssuggestedbythesemethodswhichruncountertotheirsenseofthecorrectcourseofaction.Finallymanagerscanuseintuitiontobypassin-depthanalysisandmoverapidlytofindoutaplausiblesolution.Usedinthiswayintuitionisanalmostinstantaneouscognitiveprocessinwhichamanagerrecognizesfamiliarpatterns. Oneoftheimplicationsoftheintuitivestyleofexecutivemanagementisthat"thinking"isinseparablefromacting.Sincemanagersoften"know"whatisrightbeforetheycananalyzeandexplainittheyfrequentlyactfirstandexplainlater.Analysisisinvariablytiedtoactioninthinking/actingcyclesinwhichmanagersdevelopthoughtsabouttheircompaniesandorganizationsnotbyanalyzingaproblematicsituationandthenactingbutbyactingandanalyzingincloseconcert. Giventhegreatuncertaintyofmanyofthemanagementissuesthattheyfaceseniormanagersofteninitiateacourseofactionsimplytolearnmoreaboutanissue.Theythenusetheresultsoftheactiontodevelopamorecompleteunderstandingoftheissue.Oneimplicationofthinking/actingcyclesisthatactionisoftenpartofdefiningtheproblemnotjustofimplementingthesolution.454words AccordingtothetextseniormanagersuseintuitioninallofthefollowingwaysEXCEPT
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 10
Fearseemstobethedominantmoodofthemoment.Hurricanestidalwavesfloodsearthquakesandterrorismthisyearhaveallbroughtwiththemnotonlyappallingscenesofdevastationdeathandsufferingbutalsooutrageatthelackofpreparationstoavoidorcopewiththesedisasters.Noweventhebirdsoftheairareathreatwearetold.ThatmigratingflockvisibleOnthehorizonatsunsetonceaconsolingreminderoftheeternalrhythmsofnaturecouldbecarryingtheviruswhichmightsoonkilltensofmillionsofpeople. Giventhemanyfingerspointedatgovernmentsinthewakeofotherdisastersthisyearitishardlysurprisingthattheyarescramblingtorespondtothethreatposedbyavianinfluenza.AfterconfirmationthisweekthattheHSN1strainofbirdfluwhichhasbeenspreadingquicklyinAsiahadbeendiscoveredinRomaniaandperhapsGreeceEuropeanUnionforeignministersconvenedanemergencymeeting.PresidentGeorgeBushstillsmartingfromatorrentofcriticismofhisgovernment’sclumsyresponsetoHurricaneKatrinahaspromisedtorushoutemergencyplansfordealingwithanoutbreakofpandemicfluwhichhavebeenstalledforyears.CountriesaroundtheworldarehurryingtostockpiletheonlycurrentantiviraldrugTamiflnwhichmightbeeffectiveinsavinglivesinanypandemicorcurbingitsspread.TheWorldHealthOrganisationiscallingforaninternationallycoordinatedeffort.HealthministersfromaroundtheglobeareduetomeetnextweekinCanadatodiscusswhatstepstotake. Isanyofthiseff6rtjustifiedOrarepoliticianssimplyhelpingtofeedpublicpanicandthencoveringthemselvesbypromisingtospendlavishlyagainstathreatwhichmaynevermaterializeandtoreduceariskwhichtheydonotunderstandToaskthesequestionsisnottocounselcomplacencybuttoapplythekindoftestwhichisrequiredinanykindofdisasterplanningnotleastbecausetheworldisaninherentlydangerousplaceanditisimpossibletoplanagainsteverypossibledisaster.Withthemediafullofwarningsofimpendingmassdeathanoverreactionisalltoopossible. AccordingtothetextAmericanemergencyplansforcopingwithanoutbreakofpandemicflu
41Conflicts:Ifyoudogetaplaceinthestudentdormitoryitislikelythatyouwillhavetoshareyourlivingspacewithoneotherstudent.WhilehavinganAmericanroommatewillhelpyoutolearnmoreaboutAmericanwaystherewillprobablybemanytimesthatdiscomfortorconflictwillariseduetoculturaldifferences.42Sex:WithregardtosexingeneralAmericanbehaviorisquitedifferentfromthenormsfoundinChina.43RelationshipBetweenTeachers&Students:OnthecampusparticularlywhereclassesaresmallIfoundastrangeinformalitythatcharacterizedtherelationshipbetweenstudentsandtheirprofessors.44Gifts:InmyinteractionwithAmericanfriendsInoticedthattheconceptofagiftisquitedifferenthere.ManythingswegivetoeachotherinChinaarenotcalledgiftsbutareconsideredtobeareflectionofordinarydutiesandmutualobligations.AccustomedaswearetousingthewordgifttorefertosomethingvaluablegivenonspecialoccasionsitcomesasasurprisetoseehowoftenthewordisusedinAmerica.IntheUnitedStatesgiftsgivenonmanydifferentoccasionsareonlyservices.45SocialIntercourse.WhenyoudoenterAmericanhomesyouwillhaveanopportunitytoobservedifferentwaysofgreetingpeople.OnthewholeAmericanstendtobefarmorephysicalthanweintheirgreetings.[A]Iwasastonishedforexamplewhenafriendtoldmethathewasofferingtocareforhisyoungerbrotherandsistersothathisfathercouldtakeavacationforhisbirthday--thiswasagifttohim.Forusthiswouldbeconsidereddutyratherthanagift.Evenbetweenfriendsgesturesofthissortmightbeconsideredgiftshere.[B]WhilemanystudentsdocalltheirprofessorsProfessorsoandsoorDr.soandsosomeprofessorsprefertobecalledfamiliarlybytheirfirstnames.Andinthespiritofinformalitymanyprofessorsmayinvitestudentstotheirhomesorcanbeseenchattingwithstudentsoveramealoracupofcoffeeintheschoolcafeteria.Agoodnumberofinstructorsevenrequestthatstudentsfilloutclassevaluationformswhichassessthecontentandpresentationofthecourse.[C]Myroommatewasverysociableandhadmanyboyfriendswhocametovisitoftenverylate.OnenightaftermidnightIhadtostayinthebathroomforanextra40minutesbecauseIhadheardaman’svoiceinmyroom.MyroommatedidnotrealizehowawkwardIwouldfeelmeetingamanwhileIwasinmynightgown.YouseeAmericanstudentstendtobemuchmorecasualaboutthesematters.[D]Onmanyoccasionsforinstanceclosefriendsorsometimesevencasualacquaintancesembraceorkisseachotheronthecheeksingreetingorbiddingfarewell.Itmayevenhappenthatwherecouplesareclosefriendsthetwohusbandswillkisstheotherman’swife![E]IntheUnitedStatesforexampleifastudentwantstoinvitehisteachertoadinnerpartytheinvitationshouldbesentaweekorsobeforethepartydate.Iftheinvitationisextendedonlythreeorfourdaysbeforethepartydatetheteacherwillfeelheisnothighlyregarded.[F]ForexamplemanyAmericanstudentsseemtoliketolistentopopularandsometimesloudmusicwhilestudyingintheirrooms.Sometimestheywillevenleavethemusiconwhentheyleavetheroom.ForsomereasonmanywilltellyoumusichelpsthemtorelaxandconcentrateanideawhichotherforeignstudentsandIfoundverystrangeanddisturbing.We’dliketostudyquietlywithoutanydisturbance.
ThedayofterrorattheVirginiaPolytechnicandStateUniversityinBlacksburgbeganatabout7:15a.m.withtheshootingofawomanandamaleresidentadviseronthefourthfloorofadormbuildingoncampusKristenBensleyafreshmanwholivedbelowthefloorwheretheshootingoccurredtoldTIME"Therewereminorsgoingonabouttheassailantwasfightingwithhisgirlfriendorsomethingofthatnature."Bensleynotesthatonlyresidentscangetintothebuildingusingaspecific"passport"thatisacardthatonehastoswipeinordertoopendoorsbefore10a.m.Ifhewasanoutsidersomeonewouldhavehadtolethimin.Ormorelikelyhewasaresidentofthedormhimself.Ifsohowdidbekeepsomuchammunitionunnoticed Unlikehighschoolsmostuniversitiescan’tbeefupsecuritywithametaldetectorortwo.SowhatcanbedonetoprotectstudentsOtherquestionsremainunanswered.Whywasthereatwo-hourgapbetweentheincidentatthedormandafarmorefataloneacrosscampusAtonepointthatledtotheorizingthatmorethanonegunmanwasinvolved.Thegunmanwhokilledatleast30peopleatNorrisHallshortlyafter9a.m.wasdescribedbysomesourcesasanAsianman. Ithasbeenasurrealtimeforthestudents.BrandonStiltnerasenioraerospaceengineeringstudentandJonathanHessaseniormechanicalengineerwerewatchingTValldaybutbynoonthey’dhadenough."Wedecidedweneededtodosomething"Stiltnersaid."Wewereworthlesssittingaround."Sotheytooktheirsix-footVirginiaTechsignoffthewallandloggedintoFacebook.Withinthenextfewhours100peoplerepliedtotheire-mailrequestforavigil. By8p.m.hundredsbfstudentsbeganfilingdownthestepsoftheWarMemorialChapeltowardthedrillfield.Clustersoftwoandthreestudentsstoodtogetherinsilence.Slowlytheybegantolineuptosigntheboard."I’mstillreallyindisbelief"saysStiltner.Theshockoftheday’sshootingssankinHesssaidashecarriedthesignacrosscampusforthevigil."Ithitme"Hesssaid"toknowthatitwasinthesebuildings."ThemediacrewsthatswarmedcampuswerealsosurrealtoHessandStiltner."Wecouldlookoutourwindowandseeexactlywhat’sonTV"Stiltnersays.HewatchedhissigncrowdedwithinitialsandprayersawaitingthenamesofthevictimsHeshuddered."IhopeIdon’thaveanynastysurprises. Fromthisarticlewecanguessthattheauthorisa
Themajorityofsuccessfulseniormanagersdonotcloselyfollowtheclassicalrationalmodeloffirstclarifyinggoalsassessingtheproblemformulatingoptionsestimatinglikelihoodofsuccessmakingadecisionandonlythentakingactiontoimplementthedecision.Ratherintheirday-by-daytacticalactivitiestheseseniorexecutivesrelyonwhatisvaguelytermed"intuition"tomanageanetworkofinterrelatedproblemsthatrequirethemtodealwithambiguityinconsistencynoveltyandsurprise;andtointegrateactionintotheprocessofthinking. Generationsofwritersonmanagementhaverecognizedthatsomepracticingmanagersrelyheavilyonintuition.Ingeneralhoweversuchwritersdisplayapoorgraspofwhatintuitionis.Someseeitastheoppositeofrationality;othersviewitasanexcuseofcapriciousness. Isenberg’srecentresearchonthecognitiveprocessesofseniormanagersrevealsthatmanagers’intuitionisneitherofthese.Ratherseniormanagersuseintuitioninatleastfivedistinctways.Firsttheyintuitivelysensewhenaproblemexists.Secondmanagersrelyonintuitiontoperformwell-learnedbehaviorpatternsrapidly.Thisintuitionisnotarbitraryorirrationalbutisbasedonyearsofpainstakingpracticeandpersonalexperiencethatbuildskills.Athirdfunctionofintuitionistosynthesizeisolatedbitsofdataandpracticeintoanintegratedpictureofteninan"Aha!"experience.Fourthsomemanagersuseintuitionasacheckontheresultsofmorerationalanalysis.Mostseniorexecutivesarefamiliarwiththeformaldecisionanalysismodelsandtoolsandthosewhousesuchsystematicmethodsforreachingdecisionsareoccasionallysuspiciousofsolutionssuggestedbythesemethodswhichruncountertotheirsenseofthecorrectcourseofaction.Finallymanagerscanuseintuitiontobypassin-depthanalysisandmoverapidlytofindoutaplausiblesolution.Usedinthiswayintuitionisanalmostinstantaneouscognitiveprocessinwhichamanagerrecognizesfamiliarpatterns. Oneoftheimplicationsoftheintuitivestyleofexecutivemanagementisthat"thinking"isinseparablefromacting.Sincemanagersoften"know"whatisrightbeforetheycananalyzeandexplainittheyfrequentlyactfirstandexplainlater.Analysisisinvariablytiedtoactioninthinking/actingcyclesinwhichmanagersdevelopthoughtsabouttheircompaniesandorganizationsnotbyanalyzingaproblematicsituationandthenactingbutbyactingandanalyzingincloseconcert. Giventhegreatuncertaintyofmanyofthemanagementissuesthattheyfaceseniormanagersofteninitiateacourseofactionsimplytolearnmoreaboutanissue.Theythenusetheresultsoftheactiontodevelopamorecompleteunderstandingoftheissue.Oneimplicationofthinking/actingcyclesisthatactionisoftenpartofdefiningtheproblemnotjustofimplementingthesolution.454words AccordingtothetextwhichofthefollowingwouldmostprobablybeonemajordifferenceinbehaviorbetweenManagerXwhousesintuitiontoreachdecisionsandManagerYwhousesonlyformaldecisionanalysis
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 12
"TheimpulsetoexcessamongyoungBritonsremainsaspowerfulaseverbuttheforcethatusedtokeeptheimpulseincheckhasallbutdisappeared"claimedanewspaper.Legislationthatmadeiteasiertogetholdofadrinkwas"anActfortheincreaseofdrunkennessandimmorality"assertedapolitician. Thefirststatementcomesfrom2005thesecondfrom1830.Onbothoccasionstheobjectofscornwasaparliamentarybillthatpromisedtosweepaway"antiquated"licensinglaws.AsliberalregulationscameintoforcethisweekBritonsonbothsidesofthedebateunwittinglyfolloweda19th-centuryscript. Reformersthenasnowtookabenignviewofhumannature.MakeboozecheaperandmorereadilyavailablesaidtheliberalisersanddrinkerswoulddevelopsensiblecontinentalEuropean-styleways.Nonsenseretortedthecritics.Habitsarehardtochange;ifBritonscandrinkeasilytheywilldrinkmore. Worryinglyformodernadvocatesofliberalisationearlierdoomsayersturnedouttoberight.Between1820and1840consumptionofmaltwhichisusedtomakebeerincreasedbymorethan50%.WorseBritonsdevelopedakeenertasteforwhatThomasCarlylecalled"liquidmadness"—ginandotherspirits. Thebacklashwasfierce.Criticspointedtowidespreaddebaucheryinthemoredisreputablesectionsoftheworkingclass.Theywereparticularlyworriedaboutthepeoplewhoinalateragecametobeknownas"ladettes".AnacutefearsaysVirginiaBerridgewhostudiestemperanceattheLondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicinewasthatwomenwouldpassontheirsinfulwaystotheirchildren. Inthe19thcenturytemperanceorganisationssetuptheirownnewspaperstoeducatethepublicabouttheconsequencesofexcess.Thatatleasthaschanged:thesedaysthemainstreammediarailagainstthedemondrinkallbythemselves. Whichofthefollowingcouldbethebesttitleforthetext
Childrenattendingschoolslocatedinhigh-trafficzoneshavea45percentincreasedriskofdevelopingasthmaeventhoughtimespentatschoolonlyaccountsforaboutone-thirdofachild’swakinghoursaccordingtonewresearch. Asthmaisthemostcommonchronicchildhoodillnessindevelopedcountriesandhasbeenlinkedtoenvironmentalfactorssuchastraffic-relatedairpollution."Whileresidentialtraffic-relatedpollutionhasbeenassociatedwithasthmatherehasbeenlittlestudyoftheeffectsoftrafficexposureatschoolonnewonsetasthma"saysRobMcConnellprofessorofpreventivemedicineatUSC’sKeckSchoolofMedicine."Exposuretopollutionatlocationsotherthanhomeespeciallywherechildrenspendalargeportionoftheirdayandmayengageinphysicalactivityappearstoinfluenceasthmariskaswell." ThestudyappearsonlineinthejournalEnvironmentalHealthPerspectives.ThestudydrewupondatafromtheChildren’sHealthStudyCHSalongitudinalstudyofchildreninSouthernCaliforniacommunitiesthatwasdesignedtoinvestigatethechroniceffectsofairpollutiononrespiratoryhealth.Usingacohortof2497kindergartenandfirstgradechildrenwhowereasthma-freewhentheyenteredthestudyresearchersexaminedtherelationshipoflocaltrafficaroundschoolsandhomestodiagnosisnewonsetasthmathatoccurredduringthreeyearsoffollow-up.Traffic-relatedpollutionexposurewasassessedbasedonamodelthattookintoaccounttrafficvolumedistancetomajorroadwaysfromhomeandschoolandlocalweatherconditions. Regionalambientozonenitrogendioxide二氧化氮andparticulatematterweremeasuredcontinuouslyatonecentralsiteineachofthe13studycommunities.Thedesignallowedinvestigatorstoexaminethejointeffectsoflocaltraffic-relatedpollutionexposureatschoolandathomeandofregionalpollutionexposureaffectingtheentirecommunity.Researchersfound120casesofnewasthma.Theriskassociatedwithtraffic-relatedpollutionexposureatschoolswasalmostashighasforresidentialexposureandcombinedexposureaccountingfortimespentathomeandatschoolhadaslightlylargereffect.AlthoughchildrenspendlesstimeatschoolthanathomephysicaleducationandotheractivitiesthattakeplaceatschoolmayincreaseventilationratesandthedoseofpollutantsgettingintothelungsMcConnellnotes.Traffic-relatedpollutantlevelsmayalsobehigherduringthemorninghourswhenchildrenarearrivingatschool. Despiteastatelawthatprohibitsschooldistrictsfrombuildingcampuseswithin500feetofafreewaymanySouthernCaliforniaschoolsarelocatednearhigh-trafficareasincludingbusysurfacestreets. "It’simportanttounderstandhowthesemicro-environmentswherechildrenspentalotoftheirtimeoutsideofthehomeareimpactingtheirhealth"McConnellsays."Policiesthatreduceexposuretohigh-trafficenvironmentsmayhelptopreventthisdisease."ThestudywasfundedbygrantsfromtheNationalInstituteofEnvironmentalHealthSciencestheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgencytheSouthCoastAirQualityManagementDistrictandtheHastingsFoundation. Whatkindofillnessdoesasthmabelongto
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 14
Exactlywherewewillstandinthelongwaragainstdiseasebytheyear2050isimpossibletosay.46Butifdevelopmentsinresearchmaintaintheircurrentpaceitseemslikelythatacombinationofimprovedattentiontodietaryandenvironmentalfactorsalongwithadvancesingenetherapyandproteintargeteddrugswillhavevirtuallyeliminatedmostmajorclassesofdisease.Fromaneconomicstandpointthebestnewsmaybethattheseaccomplishmentscouldbeaccompaniedbyadropinhealth-carecosts.47Costsmayevenfallasdiseasesarebroughtundercontrolusingpinpointedshorttermtherapiesnowbeingdeveloped.By2050therewillbefewerhospitalsandsurgicalprocedureswillbelargelyrestrictedtothetreatmentofaccidentsandotherformsoftrauma.Spendingonnonacutecarebothinnursingfacilitiesandinhomeswillalsofallsharplyasmoreelderlypeopleleadhealthylivesuntilclosetodeath.Oneresultofmedicine’ssuccessincontrollingdiseasewillbeadramaticincreaseinlifeexpectancy.48Theextentofthatincreaseisahighlyspeculativematterbutitisworththatmedicalsciencehasalreadyhelpedtomaketheveryoldcurrentlydefinedasthoseover85yearsofagethefastestgrowingsegmentofthepopulation.Between1960and1995theU.S.populationasawholeincreasedbyabout45%whilethesegmentover85yearsofagegrewbyalmost300%.49Therehasbeenasimilarexplosioninthepopulationofcentenarianswiththeresultthatsurvivaltotheageof100isnolongerthenewsworthyfeatthatitwasonlyafewdecadesago.U.S.CensusBureauprojectionsalreadyforecastdramaticincreaseinthenumberofcentenariansinthenext50years:4millionin2050comparedwith37000in1990.50AlthoughCensusBureaucalculationsprojectanincreaseinaveragelifespanofonlyeightyeasbytheyear2050someexertsbelievethatthehumanlifespanshouldnotbegintoencounteranytheoreticalnaturallimitsbefore120years.Withcontinuingadvancesinmolecularmedicineandagrowingunderstandingoftheagingprocessthatlimitcouldriseto130yearsormore.
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 16
Fearseemstobethedominantmoodofthemoment.Hurricanestidalwavesfloodsearthquakesandterrorismthisyearhaveallbroughtwiththemnotonlyappallingscenesofdevastationdeathandsufferingbutalsooutrageatthelackofpreparationstoavoidorcopewiththesedisasters.Noweventhebirdsoftheairareathreatwearetold.ThatmigratingflockvisibleOnthehorizonatsunsetonceaconsolingreminderoftheeternalrhythmsofnaturecouldbecarryingtheviruswhichmightsoonkilltensofmillionsofpeople. Giventhemanyfingerspointedatgovernmentsinthewakeofotherdisastersthisyearitishardlysurprisingthattheyarescramblingtorespondtothethreatposedbyavianinfluenza.AfterconfirmationthisweekthattheHSN1strainofbirdfluwhichhasbeenspreadingquicklyinAsiahadbeendiscoveredinRomaniaandperhapsGreeceEuropeanUnionforeignministersconvenedanemergencymeeting.PresidentGeorgeBushstillsmartingfromatorrentofcriticismofhisgovernment’sclumsyresponsetoHurricaneKatrinahaspromisedtorushoutemergencyplansfordealingwithanoutbreakofpandemicfluwhichhavebeenstalledforyears.CountriesaroundtheworldarehurryingtostockpiletheonlycurrentantiviraldrugTamiflnwhichmightbeeffectiveinsavinglivesinanypandemicorcurbingitsspread.TheWorldHealthOrganisationiscallingforaninternationallycoordinatedeffort.HealthministersfromaroundtheglobeareduetomeetnextweekinCanadatodiscusswhatstepstotake. Isanyofthiseff6rtjustifiedOrarepoliticianssimplyhelpingtofeedpublicpanicandthencoveringthemselvesbypromisingtospendlavishlyagainstathreatwhichmaynevermaterializeandtoreduceariskwhichtheydonotunderstandToaskthesequestionsisnottocounselcomplacencybuttoapplythekindoftestwhichisrequiredinanykindofdisasterplanningnotleastbecausetheworldisaninherentlydangerousplaceanditisimpossibletoplanagainsteverypossibledisaster.Withthemediafullofwarningsofimpendingmassdeathanoverreactionisalltoopossible. Thephrasenotleastinthelastbutonesentenceofthetextmeans
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 2
ThedayofterrorattheVirginiaPolytechnicandStateUniversityinBlacksburgbeganatabout7:15a.m.withtheshootingofawomanandamaleresidentadviseronthefourthfloorofadormbuildingoncampusKristenBensleyafreshmanwholivedbelowthefloorwheretheshootingoccurredtoldTIME"Therewereminorsgoingonabouttheassailantwasfightingwithhisgirlfriendorsomethingofthatnature."Bensleynotesthatonlyresidentscangetintothebuildingusingaspecific"passport"thatisacardthatonehastoswipeinordertoopendoorsbefore10a.m.Ifhewasanoutsidersomeonewouldhavehadtolethimin.Ormorelikelyhewasaresidentofthedormhimself.Ifsohowdidbekeepsomuchammunitionunnoticed Unlikehighschoolsmostuniversitiescan’tbeefupsecuritywithametaldetectorortwo.SowhatcanbedonetoprotectstudentsOtherquestionsremainunanswered.Whywasthereatwo-hourgapbetweentheincidentatthedormandafarmorefataloneacrosscampusAtonepointthatledtotheorizingthatmorethanonegunmanwasinvolved.Thegunmanwhokilledatleast30peopleatNorrisHallshortlyafter9a.m.wasdescribedbysomesourcesasanAsianman. Ithasbeenasurrealtimeforthestudents.BrandonStiltnerasenioraerospaceengineeringstudentandJonathanHessaseniormechanicalengineerwerewatchingTValldaybutbynoonthey’dhadenough."Wedecidedweneededtodosomething"Stiltnersaid."Wewereworthlesssittingaround."Sotheytooktheirsix-footVirginiaTechsignoffthewallandloggedintoFacebook.Withinthenextfewhours100peoplerepliedtotheire-mailrequestforavigil. By8p.m.hundredsbfstudentsbeganfilingdownthestepsoftheWarMemorialChapeltowardthedrillfield.Clustersoftwoandthreestudentsstoodtogetherinsilence.Slowlytheybegantolineuptosigntheboard."I’mstillreallyindisbelief"saysStiltner.Theshockoftheday’sshootingssankinHesssaidashecarriedthesignacrosscampusforthevigil."Ithitme"Hesssaid"toknowthatitwasinthesebuildings."ThemediacrewsthatswarmedcampuswerealsosurrealtoHessandStiltner."Wecouldlookoutourwindowandseeexactlywhat’sonTV"Stiltnersays.HewatchedhissigncrowdedwithinitialsandprayersawaitingthenamesofthevictimsHeshuddered."IhopeIdon’thaveanynastysurprises. WhichwordcantakeplaceofsurrealLine1Para.3;Line5Para.4inthepassage
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 8
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