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Financialengineersdon’’twearwhitelabcoats.Theydon’’texperimentonratsorperformgaschromatography气相层析.Theirrawmaterial-money-isn’’tasshowyaswhatbiologistsandphysicistsinvestigate.Buttheinnovationstheyproducewillcontributejustasmuchtoeconomicgrowth. Maybemoreinfactbecausewithoutthescienceoffinanceallothersciencesarejustabunchofneatconcepts.Ideasbegintotributetohumanbettermentwhenthey’’refinanced-byventurecapitalstockofferingsloansorbuyouts.Asmoothlyoperatingfinancialsystemshowersmoneyongoodideas.Equallyimportantitcutsofffundingtotiredideasandtiredcompaniessotheirassetscanbeemployedmoreefficientlyelsewhere. Inthe21stcenturyeconomyinnovationinfinancewillincreaseinconcertwiththeincreaseincompetition.Partlybecauseofderegulationandglobalizationcompetitionshouldgettougherandmarginsthinner.Asproductssuchashomemortgageloansbecomecommoditizedfinancial-servicecompanieswillbeforcedtogetmorecreative. Financialtechnologywillkeepfeedingoffinformationtechnology.Thesecrettosuccesswillbeastrongsoftwareplatformwhichwilllowerthecostofgeneralserviceswhilemakingitpossibletocreatehigh-marginvariationsaswell.Afewcompaniesthatgetitrightcanspinawayfromtherestandbecomestrongerandstronger. Inthenewworldoffinancesizecounts.Bigcompaniesenjoyeconomiesofscaleandnamerecognitionandtheycanbesaferbecausetheirbetsarespreadacrossmoreregionsandmarketsegments.ThevalueofU.S.bankmergersinthefirsthalfof1998wasgreaterthanthatofthethreepreviousyearscombined.Themergersareoccurringacrossindustriesaswell. Attheotherextremewillbespecialiststhatsurvivebydoingonethingeitherverycheaplyorexceptionallywell.Byofferinglowerpricesorbetterservicespecialistswilldisciplinethefinancialsupermarkets;thebigguysknowtheircustomerscanwalkawayiftheygetarawdeal.Thereisnowaywearegoingtomaximizeashort-termtransactionalbenefitattheriskofdestroyingalong-termrelationshipsaysChaseManhattanCorp.Vice-ChairmanJosephG.Sponholz. Predictablythebiggestwinnersfromfinancialinnovationwillbecompaniesandfamiliesthathavecomplexfinances.Banksalreadyshowsignsoflosinginterestinpeoplewhowantjustplaincheckingaccounts. Butasincomesandwealthrisemorepeoplewillfindthemselvesthrustintotheroleofassetmanagers.Businessestoowillhavetobecomemoresophisticated-ifonlytokeeppacewithfinanciallyinnovativerivals. Companiesorfamiliesmayfailinfinancingifthey
1Interpretthefollowingpictures. 2Predictthetendencyoftobaccoconsumptionandgiveyourreasons.
Throughouthistorygoldhasbeenapreciousmaterialeagerlysoughtandcherished.Itwasprobablythefirstmetaltobeminedbecauseitisbeautifulandimperishablewhichwillalwaysexistorcannotwearoutandbecausebeautifulobjectscanbemadefromit-evenwithprimitivetools.Theamountofgoldknowntoancientpeoplesprobablytotalednotmuchmorethantheamountproducedeachyearbytheworld’’slargestgoldminelocatedintheWitwatersranddistrictofSouthAfrica.StoresofgolddiscoveredbyarchaeologistsinGreeceScythiaandEgyptaswellasthegoldfromIndiantreasuriesinMexicoandPerurepresentedyearsofpatientcollectionofsmallquantitiesfromstreamsandveins矿脉oftenbyslavelabor. Theessentialvalueofgoldhasalwaysbeenknownevenbeforegoldwasusedincoinage.Itremainstheonlyuniversallyrecognizedstandardofvalueininternationalmonetaryexchange.Mostoftheworld’’srefinedgoldisabsorbedbygovernmentsandcentralbankstoprovidebackingforpapercurrency.Buttheamountofgoldusedinartsandinindustryisincreasing.Inadditiontoitsuseforjewelrydecorativefinishesanddentistryitsspecialpropertieshaveledtomanyapplicationsinmodernscienceandtechnology.Surfacecoatingsofgoldprotectearthsatellitesfromheatandcorrosionandcertainelectricalcomponentsandcircuitsofspacecraftaremadeofgoldwhenextremereliabilityisrequired. GoldwasfirstproducedintheUnitedStatesfromthesouthernAppalachianregionbeginningabout1792.Thesedepositsthoughrichwererelativelysmallandwerequicklydepleted.ThediscoveryofgoldatSutter’’sMillinCaliforniasparkedthegoldrushof1849-50.Hundredsofminingcampssprangtolifeasnewdepositswerediscovered.Asaresulttheproductionofgoldincreasedrapidly. DuringWorldWarIandforsomeyearsthereafterannualproductiondeclinedtoabouttwomillionounces.Whenthepriceofgoldwasraisedin1934to$35anounceproductionincreasedrapidly.ShortlyafterthestartofWorldWarⅡgoldmineswereclosedandthegovernmentdidnotpermitthemtoreopenuntil1945.Sincethentheproductionofgoldhasnotexceededtwomillionouncesayear. ThelargestproducinggoldmineintheUnitedStatesistheHomestakeMineinSouthDakotawhichyieldsabout575000ouncesofgoldeachyear.Otherminesscatteredthroughoutvariouspartsoftheworldproduceevenlargeramountsofthishighlyprizedandeagerlysoughtyellowishmaterial. Theauthorsuggeststhat
Throughouthistorygoldhasbeenapreciousmaterialeagerlysoughtandcherished.Itwasprobablythefirstmetaltobeminedbecauseitisbeautifulandimperishablewhichwillalwaysexistorcannotwearoutandbecausebeautifulobjectscanbemadefromit-evenwithprimitivetools.Theamountofgoldknowntoancientpeoplesprobablytotalednotmuchmorethantheamountproducedeachyearbytheworld’’slargestgoldminelocatedintheWitwatersranddistrictofSouthAfrica.StoresofgolddiscoveredbyarchaeologistsinGreeceScythiaandEgyptaswellasthegoldfromIndiantreasuriesinMexicoandPerurepresentedyearsofpatientcollectionofsmallquantitiesfromstreamsandveins矿脉oftenbyslavelabor. Theessentialvalueofgoldhasalwaysbeenknownevenbeforegoldwasusedincoinage.Itremainstheonlyuniversallyrecognizedstandardofvalueininternationalmonetaryexchange.Mostoftheworld’’srefinedgoldisabsorbedbygovernmentsandcentralbankstoprovidebackingforpapercurrency.Buttheamountofgoldusedinartsandinindustryisincreasing.Inadditiontoitsuseforjewelrydecorativefinishesanddentistryitsspecialpropertieshaveledtomanyapplicationsinmodernscienceandtechnology.Surfacecoatingsofgoldprotectearthsatellitesfromheatandcorrosionandcertainelectricalcomponentsandcircuitsofspacecraftaremadeofgoldwhenextremereliabilityisrequired. GoldwasfirstproducedintheUnitedStatesfromthesouthernAppalachianregionbeginningabout1792.Thesedepositsthoughrichwererelativelysmallandwerequicklydepleted.ThediscoveryofgoldatSutter’’sMillinCaliforniasparkedthegoldrushof1849-50.Hundredsofminingcampssprangtolifeasnewdepositswerediscovered.Asaresulttheproductionofgoldincreasedrapidly. DuringWorldWarIandforsomeyearsthereafterannualproductiondeclinedtoabouttwomillionounces.Whenthepriceofgoldwasraisedin1934to$35anounceproductionincreasedrapidly.ShortlyafterthestartofWorldWarⅡgoldmineswereclosedandthegovernmentdidnotpermitthemtoreopenuntil1945.Sincethentheproductionofgoldhasnotexceededtwomillionouncesayear. ThelargestproducinggoldmineintheUnitedStatesistheHomestakeMineinSouthDakotawhichyieldsabout575000ouncesofgoldeachyear.Otherminesscatteredthroughoutvariouspartsoftheworldproduceevenlargeramountsofthishighlyprizedandeagerlysoughtyellowishmaterial. Accordingtothetextwhichofthefollowingistrue
Financialengineersdon’’twearwhitelabcoats.Theydon’’texperimentonratsorperformgaschromatography气相层析.Theirrawmaterial-money-isn’’tasshowyaswhatbiologistsandphysicistsinvestigate.Buttheinnovationstheyproducewillcontributejustasmuchtoeconomicgrowth. Maybemoreinfactbecausewithoutthescienceoffinanceallothersciencesarejustabunchofneatconcepts.Ideasbegintotributetohumanbettermentwhenthey’’refinanced-byventurecapitalstockofferingsloansorbuyouts.Asmoothlyoperatingfinancialsystemshowersmoneyongoodideas.Equallyimportantitcutsofffundingtotiredideasandtiredcompaniessotheirassetscanbeemployedmoreefficientlyelsewhere. Inthe21stcenturyeconomyinnovationinfinancewillincreaseinconcertwiththeincreaseincompetition.Partlybecauseofderegulationandglobalizationcompetitionshouldgettougherandmarginsthinner.Asproductssuchashomemortgageloansbecomecommoditizedfinancial-servicecompanieswillbeforcedtogetmorecreative. Financialtechnologywillkeepfeedingoffinformationtechnology.Thesecrettosuccesswillbeastrongsoftwareplatformwhichwilllowerthecostofgeneralserviceswhilemakingitpossibletocreatehigh-marginvariationsaswell.Afewcompaniesthatgetitrightcanspinawayfromtherestandbecomestrongerandstronger. Inthenewworldoffinancesizecounts.Bigcompaniesenjoyeconomiesofscaleandnamerecognitionandtheycanbesaferbecausetheirbetsarespreadacrossmoreregionsandmarketsegments.ThevalueofU.S.bankmergersinthefirsthalfof1998wasgreaterthanthatofthethreepreviousyearscombined.Themergersareoccurringacrossindustriesaswell. Attheotherextremewillbespecialiststhatsurvivebydoingonethingeitherverycheaplyorexceptionallywell.Byofferinglowerpricesorbetterservicespecialistswilldisciplinethefinancialsupermarkets;thebigguysknowtheircustomerscanwalkawayiftheygetarawdeal.Thereisnowaywearegoingtomaximizeashort-termtransactionalbenefitattheriskofdestroyingalong-termrelationshipsaysChaseManhattanCorp.Vice-ChairmanJosephG.Sponholz. Predictablythebiggestwinnersfromfinancialinnovationwillbecompaniesandfamiliesthathavecomplexfinances.Banksalreadyshowsignsoflosinginterestinpeoplewhowantjustplaincheckingaccounts. Butasincomesandwealthrisemorepeoplewillfindthemselvesthrustintotheroleofassetmanagers.Businessestoowillhavetobecomemoresophisticated-ifonlytokeeppacewithfinanciallyinnovativerivals. Thestartlinggrowthofbankmergersindicatesthat
Industrialsafetydoesnotjusthappen.Companies________lowaccidentratesplantheirsafetyprogramsworkhardtoorganizethemandcontinueworkingtokeepthem________andactive.Whentheworkiswelldonea________ofaccident-freeoperationsisestablished________timelostduetoinjuriesiskeptataminimum. Successfulsafetyprogramsmay______greatlyintheemphasisplacedoncertainaspectsoftheprogram.Someplacegreatemphasisonmechanicalguarding.Othersstresssafeworkpracticesby______rolesorregulations.______othersdependonanemotionalappealtotheworker.Buttherearecertainbasicideasthatmustbeusedineveryprogramifmaximumresultsaretobeobtained. Therecanbenoquestionaboutthevalueofasafetyprogram.Fromafinancialstandpointalonesafety________.Thefewertheinjury________thebettertheworkman’’sinsurancerate.Thismaymeanthedifferencebetweenoperatingat________orataloss.
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Vitaminsareorganiccompoundsnecessaryinsmallamountsinthedietforthenormalgrowthandmaintenanceoflifeofanimalsincludingman. Theydonotprovideenergy________dotheyconstructorbuildanypartofthebody.Theyareneededfor________foodsintoenergyandbodymaintenance.Therearethirteenormoreofthemandif________ismissingadeficiencydiseasebecomes________. Vitaminsaresimilarbecausetheyaremadeofthesameelements―usuallycarbonhydrogenoxygenand______nitrogen.Theyaredifferent______theirelementsarearrangeddifferentlyandeachvitamin______oneormorespecificfunctionsinthebody. ________enoughvitaminsisessentialtolifealthoughthebodyhasnonutritionalusefor________vitamins.Manypeople________believeinbeingonthesafesideandthustakeextravitamins.Howeverawell-balanceddietwillusuallymeetallthebody’’svitaminneeds.
Scienceinpracticedependsfarlessontheexperimentsitpreparesthanonthepreparednessofthemindsofthemenwhowatchtheexperiments.SirIsaacNewtonsupposedlydiscoveredgravitythroughthefallofanapple.Appleshadbeenfallinginmanyplacesforcenturiesandthousandsofpeoplehadseenthemfall.ButNewtonforyearshadbeencuriousaboutthecauseoftheorbitalmotionofthemoonandplanets.WhatkepttheminplaceWhydidn’’ttheyfalloutoftheskyThefactthattheapplefelldowntowardtheearthandnotupintothetreeansweredthequestionhehadbeenaskinghimselfaboutthoselargerfruitsoftheheavensthemoonandtheplanets. HowmanymenwouldhaveconsideredthepossibilityofanapplefallingupintothetreeNewtondidbecausehewasnottryingtopredictanything.Hewasjustwondering.Hismindwasreadyfortheunpredictable.Unpredictabilityispartoftheessentialnatureofresearch.Ifyoudon’’thaveunpredictablethingsyoudon’’thaveresearch.Scientiststendtoforgetthiswhenwritingtheircutanddriedreportsforthetechnicaljournalsbuthistoryisfilledwithexamplesofit. Intalkingtosomescientistsparticularlyyoungeronesyoumightgathertheimpressionthattheyfindthescientificmethodasubstituteforimaginativethought.I’’veattendedresearchconferenceswhereascientisthasbeenaskedwhathethinksabouttheadvisabilityofcontinuingacertainexperiment.Thescientisthasfrownedlookedatthegraphsandsaidthedataarestillinconclusive.WeknowthatthemenfromthebudgetofficehavesaidbutwhatdoyouthinkIsitworthwhilegoingonWhatdoyouthinkwemightexpectThescientisthasbeenshockedathavingevenbeenaskedtospeculate. Whatthisamountstoofcourseisthatthescientisthasbecomethevictimofhisownwritings.Hehasputforwardunquestionedclaimssoconsistentlythathenotonlybelievesthemhimselfbuthasconvincedindustrialandbusinessmanagementthattheyaretrue.Ifexperimentsareplannedandcarriedoutaccordingtoplanasfaithfullyasthereportsinthesciencejournalsindicatethenitisperfectlylogicalformanagementtoexpectresearchtoproduceresultsmeasurableindollarsandcents.Itisentirelyreasonableforauditorstobelievethatscientistswhoknowexactlywheretheyaregoingandhowtheywillgetthereshouldnotbedistractedbythenecessityofkeepingoneeyeonthecashregisterwhiletheothereyeisonthemicroscope.Norifregularityandconformitytoastandardpatternareasdesirabletothescientistasthewritingofhispaperswouldappeartoreflectismanagementtobeblamedfordiscriminatingagainsttheoddballsamongresearchersinfavorofmoreconventionalthinkerswhoworkwellwiththeteam. Itseemsthatsomeyoungscientists_______________.
Industrialsafetydoesnotjusthappen.Companies________lowaccidentratesplantheirsafetyprogramsworkhardtoorganizethemandcontinueworkingtokeepthem________andactive.Whentheworkiswelldonea________ofaccident-freeoperationsisestablished________timelostduetoinjuriesiskeptataminimum. Successfulsafetyprogramsmay______greatlyintheemphasisplacedoncertainaspectsoftheprogram.Someplacegreatemphasisonmechanicalguarding.Othersstresssafeworkpracticesby______rolesorregulations.______othersdependonanemotionalappealtotheworker.Buttherearecertainbasicideasthatmustbeusedineveryprogramifmaximumresultsaretobeobtained. Therecanbenoquestionaboutthevalueofasafetyprogram.Fromafinancialstandpointalonesafety________.Thefewertheinjury________thebettertheworkman’’sinsurancerate.Thismaymeanthedifferencebetweenoperatingat________orataloss.
InspiteofrisingconcernintheNortheastandCanadaAdministrationspokesmenhaverepeatedlyinsistedthatnothingcouldreallybedoneaboutacidrainandtheindustry-producedsulfuremissionsuntilallthescientificfactswerein.Suddenlylastweekhoweverfactscamerainingdownineffectmakingfurtherscientificdebateonwhatmainlycausestheproblemallbutirrelevant. WhatbroughtaboutthedownpourwasastudycommissionedbyPresidentialScienceAdviser.Thespokesmenplainlycalledforremedialactionevenifsometechnicalquestionsaboutacidrainwerestillunanswered.Ifwetaketheconservativepointofviewthatwemustwaituntilthescientificknowledgeisdefinitivesaidthespokesmantheaccumulateddepositionanddamagedenvironmentmayreachthepointof’’irreversibility’’. Whenitrainsitpours.NextcameastudyfromtheNationalResearchCouncil.Itsdefinitiveconclusion:reducingemissionsofsulfurdioxidefromcoal-burningpowerplantsandfactoriessuchastheseintheMidwestwouldinfactsignificantlyreducetheacidityinrainsnowandotherprecipitation降水thatiswidelybelievedtobeworseningthelifefromfresh-waterlakesandforestsintheNortheastandCanada.Thespokesmandidnotrecommendanyspecificaction. ApairofremedialmeasuresarealreadytakenbeforeCongress.ASenatecommitteerecentlyapprovedabillthatwouldrequirereductionoverthenextdecadeofsulfur-dioxideemissionsby10milliontonsintheStatesborderingontheeastoftheMississippi.AtoughermeasurewasintroducedintheHouseorderingthe50largestsulfurpollutersintheU.S.tocutemissionssubstantially.ToeasetheEasterncoalminingindustrywhichfearsaswitchtolow-sulfurWesterncoalthebillrequirestheinstallationofexpensivescrubbersdevicesforremovingsulfurfromthesmokeratherthananorderthatforbidshigh-sulfurfuel.StillthelegislationisbeingvigorouslyopposedbythecoalindustryandutilitiesespeciallyintheMid-westwhereheavyindustriesarebattlingtosurvive.InasurveyalsoreleasedlastweektheEdisonElectricInstituteanindustrygroupgravelypredictedthatelectricityratescouldriseasmuchas50%iftheemission-controllegislationpassed. GovernmentstudiesdisputethesefiguresbutCongresshasbeensuspendedonacid-rainmeasures.Nowasaresultoftheacademystudysupportersofthebillsaremoreoptimistic.Neverthelessamajorpoliticalbattleisshapingup. Theworddownpourinthesecondparagraphmostlikelyrefersto
Ourworldofthemid-1990sfacespotentiallyburstingchange.Thequestionisinwhatdirectionwillittakeus46Willthechangecomefromworldwideinitiativesthatreversethedegradationoftheplanetandrestorehopeforthefutureorwillitcomefromcontinuingenvironmentaldeteriorationthatleadstoeconomicdeclineandsocialinstability Thereisnoprecedentfortherapidsubstantialchangeweneedtomake.47Buildinganenvironmentallysustainablefuturedependsonrestructuringtheglobaleconomymajorshiftsinhumanreproductivebehavioranddramaticchangesinvaluesandlifestyles.Doingallthisquicklyaddsuptoarevolutionthatisdrivenanddefinedbytheneedtorestoretheearth’’senvironmentalsystems.IfthisEnvironmentalRevolutionsucceedsitwillrankwiththeAgriculturalandIndustrialRevolutionsasoneofthegreateconomicandsocialtransformationsinhumanhistory. LiketheAgriculturalRevolutionitwilldramaticallyalterpopulationtrends.48Whiletheformersetthestageforenormousincreasesinhumannumbersthisrevolutionwillsucceedonlyifitstabilizeshumanpopulationsizereestablishingabalancebetweenpeopleandnaturalsystemonwhichtheydepend.IncontrasttotheIndustrialRevolutionwhichwasbasedonashifttofossilfuelsthisnewtransformationwillbebasedonashiftawayfromfossilfuels. 49Thetwoearlierrevolutionsweredrivenbytechnologicaladvances―thefirstbythediscoveryoffarmingandthesecondbytheinventionofthesteamenginewhichconvertedtheenergyincoalintomechanicalpower.TheEnvironmentalRevolutionwhileitwillobviouslyneednewtechnologieswillbedrivenprimarilybytherestructuringoftheglobaleconomysothatitdoesnotdestroyitsnaturalsupportsystem. ThepaceoftheEnvironmentalRevolutionneedstobefarfasterthanthatofitspredecessors.TheAgriculturalRevolutionbegansome10000yearsagoandtheIndustrialRevolutionhasbeenunderwayforabouttwocenturies.ButiftheEnvironmentalRevolutionistosucceeditmustbecompressedintoafewdecades.ProgressintheAgriculturalRevolutionwasmeasuredalmostexclusivelyinthegrowthinfoodoutputthateventuallyenabledfarmerstoproduceasurplusthatcouldfeedcitydwellers.Similarlyindustrialprogresswasgainedbysuccessinexpandingtheoutputofrawmaterialsandmanufacturedgoods.50TheEnvironmentalRevolutionwillbejudgedbywhetheritcanshifttheworldeconomyintoanenvironmentallysustainabledevelopmentpathonethatleadstogreatereconomicsecurityhealthierlifestylesandaworldwideimprovementinthehumancondition.
Vitaminsareorganiccompoundsnecessaryinsmallamountsinthedietforthenormalgrowthandmaintenanceoflifeofanimalsincludingman. Theydonotprovideenergy________dotheyconstructorbuildanypartofthebody.Theyareneededfor________foodsintoenergyandbodymaintenance.Therearethirteenormoreofthemandif________ismissingadeficiencydiseasebecomes________. Vitaminsaresimilarbecausetheyaremadeofthesameelements―usuallycarbonhydrogenoxygenand______nitrogen.Theyaredifferent______theirelementsarearrangeddifferentlyandeachvitamin______oneormorespecificfunctionsinthebody. ________enoughvitaminsisessentialtolifealthoughthebodyhasnonutritionalusefor________vitamins.Manypeople________believeinbeingonthesafesideandthustakeextravitamins.Howeverawell-balanceddietwillusuallymeetallthebody’’svitaminneeds.Vitaminsareorganiccompoundsnecessaryinsmallamountsinthedietforthenormalgrowthandmaintenanceoflifeofanimalsincludingman. Theydonotprovideenergy________dotheyconstructorbuildanypartofthebody.Theyareneededfor________foodsintoenergyandbodymaintenance.Therearethirteenormoreofthemandif________ismissingadeficiencydiseasebecomes________. Vitaminsaresimilarbecausetheyaremadeofthesameelements―usuallycarbonhydrogenoxygenand______nitrogen.Theyaredifferent______theirelementsarearrangeddifferentlyandeachvitamin______oneormorespecificfunctionsinthebody. ________enoughvitaminsisessentialtolifealthoughthebodyhasnonutritionalusefor________vitamins.Manypeople________believeinbeingonthesafesideandthustakeextravitamins.Howeverawell-balanceddietwillusuallymeetallthebody’’svitaminneeds.
Industrialsafetydoesnotjusthappen.Companies________lowaccidentratesplantheirsafetyprogramsworkhardtoorganizethemandcontinueworkingtokeepthem________andactive.Whentheworkiswelldonea________ofaccident-freeoperationsisestablished________timelostduetoinjuriesiskeptataminimum. Successfulsafetyprogramsmay______greatlyintheemphasisplacedoncertainaspectsoftheprogram.Someplacegreatemphasisonmechanicalguarding.Othersstresssafeworkpracticesby______rolesorregulations.______othersdependonanemotionalappealtotheworker.Buttherearecertainbasicideasthatmustbeusedineveryprogramifmaximumresultsaretobeobtained. Therecanbenoquestionaboutthevalueofasafetyprogram.Fromafinancialstandpointalonesafety________.Thefewertheinjury________thebettertheworkman’’sinsurancerate.Thismaymeanthedifferencebetweenoperatingat________orataloss.
Industrialsafetydoesnotjusthappen.Companies________lowaccidentratesplantheirsafetyprogramsworkhardtoorganizethemandcontinueworkingtokeepthem________andactive.Whentheworkiswelldonea________ofaccident-freeoperationsisestablished________timelostduetoinjuriesiskeptataminimum. Successfulsafetyprogramsmay______greatlyintheemphasisplacedoncertainaspectsoftheprogram.Someplacegreatemphasisonmechanicalguarding.Othersstresssafeworkpracticesby______rolesorregulations.______othersdependonanemotionalappealtotheworker.Buttherearecertainbasicideasthatmustbeusedineveryprogramifmaximumresultsaretobeobtained. Therecanbenoquestionaboutthevalueofasafetyprogram.Fromafinancialstandpointalonesafety________.Thefewertheinjury________thebettertheworkman’’sinsurancerate.Thismaymeanthedifferencebetweenoperatingat________orataloss.
在词频效应的实验中有哪些潜在的自变量你认为应该怎样控制
AimlessnesshashardlybeentypicalofthepostwarJapanwhoseproductivityandsocialharmonyaretheenvyoftheUnitedStatesandEurope.ButincreasinglytheJapaneseareseeingadeclineofthetraditionalwork-moralvalues.TenyearsagoyoungpeoplewerehardworkingandsawtheirjobsastheirprimaryreasonforbeingbutnowJapanhaslargelyfulfilleditseconomicneedsandyoungpeopledon’’tknowwheretheyshouldgonext. Thecomingofageofthepostwarbabyboomandanentryofwomenintothemale-dominatedjobmarkethavelimitedtheopportunitiesofteen-agerswhoarealreadyquestioningtheheavypersonalsacrificesinvolvedinclimbingJapan’’srigidsocialladdertogoodschoolsandjobs.Inarecentsurveyitwasfoundthatonly24.5percentofJapanesestudentswerefullysatisfiedwithschoollifecomparedwith67.2percentofstudentsintheUnitedStates.InadditionfarmoreJapaneseworkersexpresseddissatisfactionwiththeirjobsthandidtheircounterpartsinthe10othercountriessurveyed. WhileoftenpraisedbyforeignersforitsemphasisonthebasicsJapaneseeducationtendstostresstesttakingandmechanicallearningovercreativityandself-expression.Thosethingsthatdonotshowupinthetestscores--personalityabilitycourageorhumanity--arecompletelyignoredsaysToshikiKaifuchairmanoftherulingLiberalDemocraticParty’’seducationcommittee.Frustrationagainstthiskindofthingleadskidstodropoutandrunwild.LastyearJapanexperienced2125incidentsofschoolviolenceincluding929assaultsonteachers.Amidtheoutcrymanyconservativeleadersareseekingareturntotheprewaremphasisonmoraleducation.LastyearMitsuoSetoyamawhowastheneducationministerraisedeyebrowswhenhearguedthatliberalreformsintroducedbytheAmericanoccupationauthoritiesafterWorldWarⅡhadweakenedtheJapanesemoralityofrespectforparents. ButthatmayhavemoretodowithJapaneselife-styles.InJapansayseducatorYokoMuroit’’sneveraquestionofwhetheryouenjoyyourjobandyourlifebutonlyhowmuchyoucanendure.Witheconomicgrowthhascomecentralizationfully76percentofJapan’’s119millioncitizensliveincitieswherecommunityandtheextendedfamilyhavebeenabandonedinfavorofisolatedtwo-generationhouseholds.UrbanJapanesehavelongenduredlengthycommutestravelstoandfromworkandcrowdedlivingconditionsbutastheoldgroupandfamilyvaluesweakenthediscomfortisbeginningtotell.InthepastdecadetheJapanesedivorceratewhilestillwellbelowthatoftheUnitedStateshasincreasedbymorethan50percentandsuicideshaveincreasedbynearlyone-quarter. Whichofthefollowingistrueaccordingtotheauthor
试述人格特质理论
Vitaminsareorganiccompoundsnecessaryinsmallamountsinthedietforthenormalgrowthandmaintenanceoflifeofanimalsincludingman. Theydonotprovideenergy________dotheyconstructorbuildanypartofthebody.Theyareneededfor________foodsintoenergyandbodymaintenance.Therearethirteenormoreofthemandif________ismissingadeficiencydiseasebecomes________. Vitaminsaresimilarbecausetheyaremadeofthesameelements―usuallycarbonhydrogenoxygenand______nitrogen.Theyaredifferent______theirelementsarearrangeddifferentlyandeachvitamin______oneormorespecificfunctionsinthebody. ________enoughvitaminsisessentialtolifealthoughthebodyhasnonutritionalusefor________vitamins.Manypeople________believeinbeingonthesafesideandthustakeextravitamins.Howeverawell-balanceddietwillusuallymeetallthebody’’svitaminneeds.
Ourworldofthemid-1990sfacespotentiallyburstingchange.Thequestionisinwhatdirectionwillittakeus46Willthechangecomefromworldwideinitiativesthatreversethedegradationoftheplanetandrestorehopeforthefutureorwillitcomefromcontinuingenvironmentaldeteriorationthatleadstoeconomicdeclineandsocialinstability Thereisnoprecedentfortherapidsubstantialchangeweneedtomake.47Buildinganenvironmentallysustainablefuturedependsonrestructuringtheglobaleconomymajorshiftsinhumanreproductivebehavioranddramaticchangesinvaluesandlifestyles.Doingallthisquicklyaddsuptoarevolutionthatisdrivenanddefinedbytheneedtorestoretheearth’’senvironmentalsystems.IfthisEnvironmentalRevolutionsucceedsitwillrankwiththeAgriculturalandIndustrialRevolutionsasoneofthegreateconomicandsocialtransformationsinhumanhistory. LiketheAgriculturalRevolutionitwilldramaticallyalterpopulationtrends.48Whiletheformersetthestageforenormousincreasesinhumannumbersthisrevolutionwillsucceedonlyifitstabilizeshumanpopulationsizereestablishingabalancebetweenpeopleandnaturalsystemonwhichtheydepend.IncontrasttotheIndustrialRevolutionwhichwasbasedonashifttofossilfuelsthisnewtransformationwillbebasedonashiftawayfromfossilfuels. 49Thetwoearlierrevolutionsweredrivenbytechnologicaladvances―thefirstbythediscoveryoffarmingandthesecondbytheinventionofthesteamenginewhichconvertedtheenergyincoalintomechanicalpower.TheEnvironmentalRevolutionwhileitwillobviouslyneednewtechnologieswillbedrivenprimarilybytherestructuringoftheglobaleconomysothatitdoesnotdestroyitsnaturalsupportsystem. ThepaceoftheEnvironmentalRevolutionneedstobefarfasterthanthatofitspredecessors.TheAgriculturalRevolutionbegansome10000yearsagoandtheIndustrialRevolutionhasbeenunderwayforabouttwocenturies.ButiftheEnvironmentalRevolutionistosucceeditmustbecompressedintoafewdecades.ProgressintheAgriculturalRevolutionwasmeasuredalmostexclusivelyinthegrowthinfoodoutputthateventuallyenabledfarmerstoproduceasurplusthatcouldfeedcitydwellers.Similarlyindustrialprogresswasgainedbysuccessinexpandingtheoutputofrawmaterialsandmanufacturedgoods.50TheEnvironmentalRevolutionwillbejudgedbywhetheritcanshifttheworldeconomyintoanenvironmentallysustainabledevelopmentpathonethatleadstogreatereconomicsecurityhealthierlifestylesandaworldwideimprovementinthehumancondition.
Industrialsafetydoesnotjusthappen.Companies________lowaccidentratesplantheirsafetyprogramsworkhardtoorganizethemandcontinueworkingtokeepthem________andactive.Whentheworkiswelldonea________ofaccident-freeoperationsisestablished________timelostduetoinjuriesiskeptataminimum. Successfulsafetyprogramsmay______greatlyintheemphasisplacedoncertainaspectsoftheprogram.Someplacegreatemphasisonmechanicalguarding.Othersstresssafeworkpracticesby______rolesorregulations.______othersdependonanemotionalappealtotheworker.Buttherearecertainbasicideasthatmustbeusedineveryprogramifmaximumresultsaretobeobtained. Therecanbenoquestionaboutthevalueofasafetyprogram.Fromafinancialstandpointalonesafety________.Thefewertheinjury________thebettertheworkman’’sinsurancerate.Thismaymeanthedifferencebetweenoperatingat________orataloss.
InspiteofrisingconcernintheNortheastandCanadaAdministrationspokesmenhaverepeatedlyinsistedthatnothingcouldreallybedoneaboutacidrainandtheindustry-producedsulfuremissionsuntilallthescientificfactswerein.Suddenlylastweekhoweverfactscamerainingdownineffectmakingfurtherscientificdebateonwhatmainlycausestheproblemallbutirrelevant. WhatbroughtaboutthedownpourwasastudycommissionedbyPresidentialScienceAdviser.Thespokesmenplainlycalledforremedialactionevenifsometechnicalquestionsaboutacidrainwerestillunanswered.Ifwetaketheconservativepointofviewthatwemustwaituntilthescientificknowledgeisdefinitivesaidthespokesmantheaccumulateddepositionanddamagedenvironmentmayreachthepointof’’irreversibility’’. Whenitrainsitpours.NextcameastudyfromtheNationalResearchCouncil.Itsdefinitiveconclusion:reducingemissionsofsulfurdioxidefromcoal-burningpowerplantsandfactoriessuchastheseintheMidwestwouldinfactsignificantlyreducetheacidityinrainsnowandotherprecipitation降水thatiswidelybelievedtobeworseningthelifefromfresh-waterlakesandforestsintheNortheastandCanada.Thespokesmandidnotrecommendanyspecificaction. ApairofremedialmeasuresarealreadytakenbeforeCongress.ASenatecommitteerecentlyapprovedabillthatwouldrequirereductionoverthenextdecadeofsulfur-dioxideemissionsby10milliontonsintheStatesborderingontheeastoftheMississippi.AtoughermeasurewasintroducedintheHouseorderingthe50largestsulfurpollutersintheU.S.tocutemissionssubstantially.ToeasetheEasterncoalminingindustrywhichfearsaswitchtolow-sulfurWesterncoalthebillrequirestheinstallationofexpensivescrubbersdevicesforremovingsulfurfromthesmokeratherthananorderthatforbidshigh-sulfurfuel.StillthelegislationisbeingvigorouslyopposedbythecoalindustryandutilitiesespeciallyintheMid-westwhereheavyindustriesarebattlingtosurvive.InasurveyalsoreleasedlastweektheEdisonElectricInstituteanindustrygroupgravelypredictedthatelectricityratescouldriseasmuchas50%iftheemission-controllegislationpassed. GovernmentstudiesdisputethesefiguresbutCongresshasbeensuspendedonacid-rainmeasures.Nowasaresultoftheacademystudysupportersofthebillsaremoreoptimistic.Neverthelessamajorpoliticalbattleisshapingup. Thetwostudiesmentionedinthetextclearlystatedthat
简述影响信度的因素
简述sternberg的智力三因素理论
在奥苏贝尔提出的学业成就动机中哪些属于外部动机
Scienceinpracticedependsfarlessontheexperimentsitpreparesthanonthepreparednessofthemindsofthemenwhowatchtheexperiments.SirIsaacNewtonsupposedlydiscoveredgravitythroughthefallofanapple.Appleshadbeenfallinginmanyplacesforcenturiesandthousandsofpeoplehadseenthemfall.ButNewtonforyearshadbeencuriousaboutthecauseoftheorbitalmotionofthemoonandplanets.WhatkepttheminplaceWhydidn’’ttheyfalloutoftheskyThefactthattheapplefelldowntowardtheearthandnotupintothetreeansweredthequestionhehadbeenaskinghimselfaboutthoselargerfruitsoftheheavensthemoonandtheplanets. HowmanymenwouldhaveconsideredthepossibilityofanapplefallingupintothetreeNewtondidbecausehewasnottryingtopredictanything.Hewasjustwondering.Hismindwasreadyfortheunpredictable.Unpredictabilityispartoftheessentialnatureofresearch.Ifyoudon’’thaveunpredictablethingsyoudon’’thaveresearch.Scientiststendtoforgetthiswhenwritingtheircutanddriedreportsforthetechnicaljournalsbuthistoryisfilledwithexamplesofit. Intalkingtosomescientistsparticularlyyoungeronesyoumightgathertheimpressionthattheyfindthescientificmethodasubstituteforimaginativethought.I’’veattendedresearchconferenceswhereascientisthasbeenaskedwhathethinksabouttheadvisabilityofcontinuingacertainexperiment.Thescientisthasfrownedlookedatthegraphsandsaidthedataarestillinconclusive.WeknowthatthemenfromthebudgetofficehavesaidbutwhatdoyouthinkIsitworthwhilegoingonWhatdoyouthinkwemightexpectThescientisthasbeenshockedathavingevenbeenaskedtospeculate. Whatthisamountstoofcourseisthatthescientisthasbecomethevictimofhisownwritings.Hehasputforwardunquestionedclaimssoconsistentlythathenotonlybelievesthemhimselfbuthasconvincedindustrialandbusinessmanagementthattheyaretrue.Ifexperimentsareplannedandcarriedoutaccordingtoplanasfaithfullyasthereportsinthesciencejournalsindicatethenitisperfectlylogicalformanagementtoexpectresearchtoproduceresultsmeasurableindollarsandcents.Itisentirelyreasonableforauditorstobelievethatscientistswhoknowexactlywheretheyaregoingandhowtheywillgetthereshouldnotbedistractedbythenecessityofkeepingoneeyeonthecashregisterwhiletheothereyeisonthemicroscope.Norifregularityandconformitytoastandardpatternareasdesirabletothescientistasthewritingofhispaperswouldappeartoreflectismanagementtobeblamedfordiscriminatingagainsttheoddballsamongresearchersinfavorofmoreconventionalthinkerswhoworkwellwiththeteam. TheauthorwantstoprovewiththeexampleofIsaacNewtonthat____________.
Vitaminsareorganiccompoundsnecessaryinsmallamountsinthedietforthenormalgrowthandmaintenanceoflifeofanimalsincludingman. Theydonotprovideenergy________dotheyconstructorbuildanypartofthebody.Theyareneededfor________foodsintoenergyandbodymaintenance.Therearethirteenormoreofthemandif________ismissingadeficiencydiseasebecomes________. Vitaminsaresimilarbecausetheyaremadeofthesameelements―usuallycarbonhydrogenoxygenand______nitrogen.Theyaredifferent______theirelementsarearrangeddifferentlyandeachvitamin______oneormorespecificfunctionsinthebody. ________enoughvitaminsisessentialtolifealthoughthebodyhasnonutritionalusefor________vitamins.Manypeople________believeinbeingonthesafesideandthustakeextravitamins.Howeverawell-balanceddietwillusuallymeetallthebody’’svitaminneeds.
AimlessnesshashardlybeentypicalofthepostwarJapanwhoseproductivityandsocialharmonyaretheenvyoftheUnitedStatesandEurope.ButincreasinglytheJapaneseareseeingadeclineofthetraditionalwork-moralvalues.TenyearsagoyoungpeoplewerehardworkingandsawtheirjobsastheirprimaryreasonforbeingbutnowJapanhaslargelyfulfilleditseconomicneedsandyoungpeopledon’’tknowwheretheyshouldgonext. Thecomingofageofthepostwarbabyboomandanentryofwomenintothemale-dominatedjobmarkethavelimitedtheopportunitiesofteen-agerswhoarealreadyquestioningtheheavypersonalsacrificesinvolvedinclimbingJapan’’srigidsocialladdertogoodschoolsandjobs.Inarecentsurveyitwasfoundthatonly24.5percentofJapanesestudentswerefullysatisfiedwithschoollifecomparedwith67.2percentofstudentsintheUnitedStates.InadditionfarmoreJapaneseworkersexpresseddissatisfactionwiththeirjobsthandidtheircounterpartsinthe10othercountriessurveyed. WhileoftenpraisedbyforeignersforitsemphasisonthebasicsJapaneseeducationtendstostresstesttakingandmechanicallearningovercreativityandself-expression.Thosethingsthatdonotshowupinthetestscores--personalityabilitycourageorhumanity--arecompletelyignoredsaysToshikiKaifuchairmanoftherulingLiberalDemocraticParty’’seducationcommittee.Frustrationagainstthiskindofthingleadskidstodropoutandrunwild.LastyearJapanexperienced2125incidentsofschoolviolenceincluding929assaultsonteachers.Amidtheoutcrymanyconservativeleadersareseekingareturntotheprewaremphasisonmoraleducation.LastyearMitsuoSetoyamawhowastheneducationministerraisedeyebrowswhenhearguedthatliberalreformsintroducedbytheAmericanoccupationauthoritiesafterWorldWarⅡhadweakenedtheJapanesemoralityofrespectforparents. ButthatmayhavemoretodowithJapaneselife-styles.InJapansayseducatorYokoMuroit’’sneveraquestionofwhetheryouenjoyyourjobandyourlifebutonlyhowmuchyoucanendure.Witheconomicgrowthhascomecentralizationfully76percentofJapan’’s119millioncitizensliveincitieswherecommunityandtheextendedfamilyhavebeenabandonedinfavorofisolatedtwo-generationhouseholds.UrbanJapanesehavelongenduredlengthycommutestravelstoandfromworkandcrowdedlivingconditionsbutastheoldgroupandfamilyvaluesweakenthediscomfortisbeginningtotell.InthepastdecadetheJapanesedivorceratewhilestillwellbelowthatoftheUnitedStateshasincreasedbymorethan50percentandsuicideshaveincreasedbynearlyone-quarter. IntheWesterners’’eyesthepostwarJapanwas__________.
Financialengineersdon’’twearwhitelabcoats.Theydon’’texperimentonratsorperformgaschromatography气相层析.Theirrawmaterial-money-isn’’tasshowyaswhatbiologistsandphysicistsinvestigate.Buttheinnovationstheyproducewillcontributejustasmuchtoeconomicgrowth. Maybemoreinfactbecausewithoutthescienceoffinanceallothersciencesarejustabunchofneatconcepts.Ideasbegintotributetohumanbettermentwhenthey’’refinanced-byventurecapitalstockofferingsloansorbuyouts.Asmoothlyoperatingfinancialsystemshowersmoneyongoodideas.Equallyimportantitcutsofffundingtotiredideasandtiredcompaniessotheirassetscanbeemployedmoreefficientlyelsewhere. Inthe21stcenturyeconomyinnovationinfinancewillincreaseinconcertwiththeincreaseincompetition.Partlybecauseofderegulationandglobalizationcompetitionshouldgettougherandmarginsthinner.Asproductssuchashomemortgageloansbecomecommoditizedfinancial-servicecompanieswillbeforcedtogetmorecreative. Financialtechnologywillkeepfeedingoffinformationtechnology.Thesecrettosuccesswillbeastrongsoftwareplatformwhichwilllowerthecostofgeneralserviceswhilemakingitpossibletocreatehigh-marginvariationsaswell.Afewcompaniesthatgetitrightcanspinawayfromtherestandbecomestrongerandstronger. Inthenewworldoffinancesizecounts.Bigcompaniesenjoyeconomiesofscaleandnamerecognitionandtheycanbesaferbecausetheirbetsarespreadacrossmoreregionsandmarketsegments.ThevalueofU.S.bankmergersinthefirsthalfof1998wasgreaterthanthatofthethreepreviousyearscombined.Themergersareoccurringacrossindustriesaswell. Attheotherextremewillbespecialiststhatsurvivebydoingonethingeitherverycheaplyorexceptionallywell.Byofferinglowerpricesorbetterservicespecialistswilldisciplinethefinancialsupermarkets;thebigguysknowtheircustomerscanwalkawayiftheygetarawdeal.Thereisnowaywearegoingtomaximizeashort-termtransactionalbenefitattheriskofdestroyingalong-termrelationshipsaysChaseManhattanCorp.Vice-ChairmanJosephG.Sponholz. Predictablythebiggestwinnersfromfinancialinnovationwillbecompaniesandfamiliesthathavecomplexfinances.Banksalreadyshowsignsoflosinginterestinpeoplewhowantjustplaincheckingaccounts. Butasincomesandwealthrisemorepeoplewillfindthemselvesthrustintotheroleofassetmanagers.Businessestoowillhavetobecomemoresophisticated-ifonlytokeeppacewithfinanciallyinnovativerivals. .Incomparisonwithnaturalscientistsfinancialengineers
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