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In most parts of the world, climate change is a worrying subject. Not so in California. At a rece...
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Intheidealizedversionofhowscienceisdonefactsabouttheworldarewaitingtobeobservedandcollectedbyobjectiveresearcherswhousethescientificmethodtocan’youttheirwork.Butintheeverydaypracticeofsciencediscoveryfrequentlyfollowsanambiguousandcomplicatedroute.Weaimtobeobjectivebutwecannotescapethecontextofouruniquelifeexperience.Priorknowledgeandinterestinfluencewhatweexperiencewhatwethinkourexperiencesmeanandthesubsequentactionswetake.Opportunitiesformisinterpretationerrorandself-deceptionabound. Consequentlydiscoveryclaimsshouldbethoughtofasprotoscience.Similartonewlystakedminingclaimstheyarelullofpotential.Butittakescollectivescrutinyandacceptancetotransformadiscoveryclaimintoamaturediscovery.Thisisthecredibilityprocessthroughwhichtheindividualresearcher’smeherenowbecomesthecommunity’sanyoneanywhereanytime.Objectiveknowledgeisthegoalnotthestartingpoint. Onceadiscoveryclaimbecomespublicthediscovererreceivesintellectualcredit.Butunlikewithminingclaimsthecommunitytakescontrolofwhathappensnext.Withinthecomplexsocialstructureofthescientificcommunityresearchersmakediscoveries;editorsandreviewersactasgatekeepersbycontrollingthepublicationprocess;otherscientistsusethenewfindingtosuittheirownpurposes;andfinallythepublicincludingotherscientistsreceivesthenewdiscoveryandpossiblyaccompanyingtechnology.Asadiscoveryclaimworksitwaythroughthecommunitytheinteractionandconfrontationbetweensharedandcompetingbeliefsaboutthescienceandthetechnologyinvolvedtransformsanindividual’sdiscoveryclaimintothecommunity’scrediblediscovery. Twoparadoxesexistthroughoutthiscredibilityprocess.FirstscientificworktendstofocusonsomeaspectofprevailingKnowledgethatisviewedasincompleteorincorrect.Littlerewardaccompaniesduplicationandconfirmationofwhatisalreadyknownandbelieved.Thegoalisnew-searchnotre-search.Notsurprisinglynewlypublisheddiscoveryclaimsandcrediblediscoveriesthatappeartobeimportantandconvincingwillalwaysbeopentochallengeandpotentialmodificationorrefutationbyfutureresearchers.Secondnoveltyitselffrequentlyprovokesdisbelief.NobelLaureateandphysiologistAlbertAzent-Gy6rgyioncedescribeddiscoveryas"seeingwhateverybodyhasseenandthinkingwhatnobodyhasthought."Butthinkingwhatnobodyelsehasthoughtandtellingotherswhattheyhavemissedmaynotchangetheirviews.Sometimesyearsarerequiredfortrulynoveldiscoveryclaimstobeacceptedandappreciated. Intheendcredibility"happens"toadiscoveryclaim—aprocessthatcorrespondstowhatphilosopherAnnetteBaierhasdescribedasthecommonsofthemind."Wereasontogetherchallengereviseandcompleteeachother’sreasoningandeachother’sconceptionsofreason. Accordingtothefirstparagraphtheprocessofdiscoveryischaracterizedbyits
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 17
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 19
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 15
Inmostpartsoftheworldclimatechangeisaworryingsubject.NotsoinCalifornia.Atarecentgatheringofgreenluminaries--inafilmstar’shousenaturallyforthatishowseriousnessisoftenestablishedinLosAngeles--thedominantnotewasself-satisfactionatwhatthestatehasalreadyachieved.AndperhapsnobodyismorecomplacentthanArnoldSchwarzenegger.UnlikeA1GoreapresidentialcandidateturnedprophetofenvironmentaldoomCalifornia’sgovernorsoundscheerfulwhentalkingaboutclimatechange.Aswellhemight:ithasmadehispoliticalcareer. AlthoughCaliforniahaslongbeenanenvironmentally-consciousstateuntilrecentlygreenswereconcernedaboveallwithsmogandredwoodtrees."CoastofDreams"KevinStarr’sauthoritativehistoryofcontemporaryCaliforniapublishedin2004doesnotmentionclimatechange.Inthatyearthoughthenewly-electedMr.Schwarzeneggermadehisfirsttentativecallforwesternstatestoseekalternativestofossilfuels.Graduallyhenoticedthathiseffortstotackleclimatechangemetwithlessresistanceandmoreacclaimthanjustaboutallhisotherpolicies.Thesedaysitcanseemasthoughheworksonnothingelse. Mr.Schwarzenegger’stransformationfromscreenwarriortoeco-warriorwascompletedlastyearwhenhesignedabillimposinglegally-enforceablelimitsongreenhouse--gasemissions--afirstforAmerica.ThanksmostlytoitslackofcoalandheavyindustryCaliforniaisarelativelycleanstate.Ifitwereacountryitwouldbetheworld’seighth-biggesteconomybutonlyits16th-biggestpolluter.Itsbigproblemistransport--meaningmostlycarsandtruckswhichaccountformorethan40%ofitsgreenhouse-gasemissionscomparedwith32%inAmericaasawhole.Thestatewantstoratchetdownemissionslimitsonnewvehiclesbeginningin2009.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasalsoorderedthatby2020vehiclefuelmustproduce10%lesscarbon:intheproductionaswellastheburningsoasimpleswitchtocorn-basedethanolisprobablyout. ThanksinparttoCalifornia’sexamplemostofthewesternstateshaveadoptedclimateactionplans.WhenitcomestosettingemissiontargetsthescenecanresembleaposedownataMr.Olympiacontest.Arizona’sclimate-changescholarsdecidedtosetatargetofcuttingthestate’semissionsto2000levelsby2020.ButJanetNapolitanothegovernorwasdeterminednottobeout-muscledbyCalifornia.ShehasdeclaredthatArizonawilltrytoreturnto2000emissionlevelsby2012. Californiahasnotjustinspiredotherstates;ithascreatedavanguardthatoughttobeabletoprodthefederalgovernmentintostrongernationalstandardsthanitwouldotherwiseconsider.ButCaliforniaisfindingiteasiertoexportitspoliciesthantoputthemintopracticeathome.InonewayCalifornia’sself-confidenceisfullyjustified.Ithasdonemorethananyotherstate--letalonethefederalgovernment--tofixAmerica’sattentiononclimatechange.Ithasalsomadeitseemasthoughtheproblemcanbesolved.Whichiswhyfailurewouldbesuchbadnews.AtthemomentCaliforniaisabeacontootherstates.Ifitfailsitwillbecomeanexcuseforinaction. AccordingtotheauthorMr.ArnoldSchwarzeneggerischeerfulchieflybecause
Intheidealizedversionofhowscienceisdonefactsabouttheworldarewaitingtobeobservedandcollectedbyobjectiveresearcherswhousethescientificmethodtocan’youttheirwork.Butintheeverydaypracticeofsciencediscoveryfrequentlyfollowsanambiguousandcomplicatedroute.Weaimtobeobjectivebutwecannotescapethecontextofouruniquelifeexperience.Priorknowledgeandinterestinfluencewhatweexperiencewhatwethinkourexperiencesmeanandthesubsequentactionswetake.Opportunitiesformisinterpretationerrorandself-deceptionabound. Consequentlydiscoveryclaimsshouldbethoughtofasprotoscience.Similartonewlystakedminingclaimstheyarelullofpotential.Butittakescollectivescrutinyandacceptancetotransformadiscoveryclaimintoamaturediscovery.Thisisthecredibilityprocessthroughwhichtheindividualresearcher’smeherenowbecomesthecommunity’sanyoneanywhereanytime.Objectiveknowledgeisthegoalnotthestartingpoint. Onceadiscoveryclaimbecomespublicthediscovererreceivesintellectualcredit.Butunlikewithminingclaimsthecommunitytakescontrolofwhathappensnext.Withinthecomplexsocialstructureofthescientificcommunityresearchersmakediscoveries;editorsandreviewersactasgatekeepersbycontrollingthepublicationprocess;otherscientistsusethenewfindingtosuittheirownpurposes;andfinallythepublicincludingotherscientistsreceivesthenewdiscoveryandpossiblyaccompanyingtechnology.Asadiscoveryclaimworksitwaythroughthecommunitytheinteractionandconfrontationbetweensharedandcompetingbeliefsaboutthescienceandthetechnologyinvolvedtransformsanindividual’sdiscoveryclaimintothecommunity’scrediblediscovery. Twoparadoxesexistthroughoutthiscredibilityprocess.FirstscientificworktendstofocusonsomeaspectofprevailingKnowledgethatisviewedasincompleteorincorrect.Littlerewardaccompaniesduplicationandconfirmationofwhatisalreadyknownandbelieved.Thegoalisnew-searchnotre-search.Notsurprisinglynewlypublisheddiscoveryclaimsandcrediblediscoveriesthatappeartobeimportantandconvincingwillalwaysbeopentochallengeandpotentialmodificationorrefutationbyfutureresearchers.Secondnoveltyitselffrequentlyprovokesdisbelief.NobelLaureateandphysiologistAlbertAzent-Gy6rgyioncedescribeddiscoveryas"seeingwhateverybodyhasseenandthinkingwhatnobodyhasthought."Butthinkingwhatnobodyelsehasthoughtandtellingotherswhattheyhavemissedmaynotchangetheirviews.Sometimesyearsarerequiredfortrulynoveldiscoveryclaimstobeacceptedandappreciated. Intheendcredibility"happens"toadiscoveryclaim—aprocessthatcorrespondstowhatphilosopherAnnetteBaierhasdescribedasthecommonsofthemind."Wereasontogetherchallengereviseandcompleteeachother’sreasoningandeachother’sconceptionsofreason. Paragraph3showsthatadiscoveryclaimbecomescredibleafterit
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 3
WhenLiamMcGeedepartedaspresidentofBankofAmericainAugusthisexplanationwassurprisinglystraightup.Ratherthancloakinghisexitintheusualvagueexcuseshecamerightoutandsaidhewasleavingtopursuemygoalofrunningacompany.BroadcastinghisambitionwasverymuchmydecisionMcGeesays.WithintwoweekshewastalkingforthefirsttimewiththeboardofHartfordFinancialServicesGroupwhichnamedhimCEOandchairmanonSeptember29.McGeesaysleavingwithoutapositionlinedupgavehimtimetoreflectonwhatkindofcompanyhewantedtorun.Italsosentaclearmessagetotheoutsideworldabouthisaspirations.AndMcGeeisn’talone.InrecentweekstheNo.2executivesatAvonandAmericanExpressquitwiththeexplanationthattheywerelookingforaCEOpost.Asboardsscrutinizesuccessionplansinresponsetoshareholderpressureexecutiveswhodon’tgetthenodalsomaywishtomoveon.Aturbulentbusinessenvironmentalsohasseniormanagerscautiousoflettingvaguepronouncementscloudtheirreputations.Asthefirstsignsofrecoverybegintotakeholddeputychiefsmaybemorewillingtomakethejumpwithoutanet.InthethirdquarterCEOturnoverwasdown23%fromayearagoasnervousboardsstuckwiththeleaderstheyhadaccordingtoLiberumResearch.Astheeconomypicksupopportunitieswillaboundforaspiringleaders.Thedecisiontoquitaseniorpositiontolookforabetteroneisunconventional.ForyearsexecutivesandheadhuntershaveadheredtotherulethatthemostattractiveCEOcandidatesaretheoneswhomustbepoached.SaysKorn/FerryseniorpartnerDennisCarey:Ican’tthinkofasinglesearchI’vedonewhereaboardhasnotinstructedmetolookatsittingCEOsfirst.Thosewhojumpedwithoutajobhaven’talwayslandedintoppositionsquickly.EllenMarramquitaschiefofTropicanaadecadeagesayingshewantedtobeaCEO.ItwasayearbeforeshebecameheadofatinyInternet-basedcommoditiesexchange.RobertWillumstadleftCitigroupin2005withambitionstobeaCEO.Hefinallytookthatpostatamajorfinancialinstitutionthreeyearslater.Manyrecruiterssaytheolddisgraceisfadingfortopperformers.Thefinancialcrisishasmadeitmoreacceptabletobebetweenjobsortoleaveabadone.Thetraditionalrulewasit’ssafertostaywhereyouarebutthat’sbeenfundamentallyinvertedsaysoneheadhunter.Thepeoplewho’vebeenhurttheworstarethosewho’vestayedtoolong.AccordingtoParagraph2seniorexecutives’quittingmaybespurredby
Forthispartyouareallowedfifteenminutestowritealetter.SupposeyouareZhangYing.WritealettertoXiaoWangaschoolmateofyourswhoisgoingtovisityouduringtheweeklongholiday.Youshouldwriteaccordingtothesuggestionsgivenbelow. 1Welcomehim; 2Givesomesuggestionsonhowhespendstheholiday; 3Somethingdetailedtobepaidattentionto.
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 11
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 13
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 41
FORthepasttwoyearsinSiliconValleythecentreofAmerica’stechnologyindustryconference-goershaveentertainedthemselvesplayingaguessinggame:howmanytimeswillaspeakermentionthephrase"longtail"ItisusuallyahighnumberthankstotheinfluenceofthelongtailtheorywhichwasfirstdevelopedbyChrisAndersontheeditorofWiredmagazineinanarticlein2004.Thoughtechnologistsandbloggerschuckleathoweverybusinesspresentationnowhastohaveitslong-tailsectionmostareenviousofMrAndersonwhosebrainwavequicklybecamethemostfashionablebusinessideaaround. Whetherablockbusterfilmabestsellingnovelorachart-toppingrapsongpopularcultureidolizesthehit.Companiesdevotethemselvestocreatingthembecausethecostofdistributionandthelimitsofshelfspaceinphysicalshopsmeanthatprofitabilitydependsonahighvolumeofsales.Butaroundthebeginningofthiscenturyagroupofinternetcompaniesrealizedthatwithendlessshelvesandanationaloreveninternationalaudienceonlinetheycouldofferahugerangeofproducts—andmakemoneyatthesametime. ThenichetheobscureandthespecialistMrAndersonargueswillgaingroundattheexpenseofthehit.Asevidencehepointstoadropinthenumberofcompaniesthattraditionallycalculatetheirrevenue/salesratioaccordingtothe80/20rule—wherethetopfifthofproductscontributefour-fifthsofrevenues.EcastaSanFranciscodigitaljukeboxcompanyfoundthat98%ofits10000albumssoldatleastonetrackeverythreemonths.ExpressedinthelanguageofstatisticstheexperiencesofEcastandothercompaniessuchasAmazonanonlinebooksellersuggestthatproductsdowninthelongtailofastatisticaldistributionaddedtogethercanbehighlyprofitable.Theinternethelpspeoplefindtheirwaytorelativelyobscurematerialwithrecommendationsandreviewsbyotherpeopleandforthosewillingtohavetheirartistictastespredictedbyapieceofsoftwarecomputerprogramswhichanalyzepastselections. Long-tailenthusiastsarguethatthewholeofculturewillbenefitnotjustcommercialenterprises.Televisionfilmandmusicaresuchbewitchingmediaintheirownrightthatmanypeoplearequitehappytowatchandlistentowhatthemainstreamprovides.Butifindividualshavetheopportunitytopickbettermoreideallysuitedentertainmentfromafarwiderselectiontheywilltakeitaccordingtothetheoryofthelongtail.Someanalystsreckonthatentirepopulationsmightbecomehappierandwiseroncetheyhaveaccesstothousandsofdocumentariesindependentfilmsandsub-genresofeverykindofmusicinsteadofbeingsubjectedtowhatMrAndersoncallsthetyrannyoflowest-common-denominatorfare.Thatmightbetakingthingsabitfar.Butthelongtailiscertainlyoneoftheinternet’sbettergiftstohumanity. Whichofthefollowingisthebesttitleforthetext
FORthepasttwoyearsinSiliconValleythecentreofAmerica’stechnologyindustryconference-goershaveentertainedthemselvesplayingaguessinggame:howmanytimeswillaspeakermentionthephrase"longtail"ItisusuallyahighnumberthankstotheinfluenceofthelongtailtheorywhichwasfirstdevelopedbyChrisAndersontheeditorofWiredmagazineinanarticlein2004.Thoughtechnologistsandbloggerschuckleathoweverybusinesspresentationnowhastohaveitslong-tailsectionmostareenviousofMrAndersonwhosebrainwavequicklybecamethemostfashionablebusinessideaaround. Whetherablockbusterfilmabestsellingnovelorachart-toppingrapsongpopularcultureidolizesthehit.Companiesdevotethemselvestocreatingthembecausethecostofdistributionandthelimitsofshelfspaceinphysicalshopsmeanthatprofitabilitydependsonahighvolumeofsales.Butaroundthebeginningofthiscenturyagroupofinternetcompaniesrealizedthatwithendlessshelvesandanationaloreveninternationalaudienceonlinetheycouldofferahugerangeofproducts—andmakemoneyatthesametime. ThenichetheobscureandthespecialistMrAndersonargueswillgaingroundattheexpenseofthehit.Asevidencehepointstoadropinthenumberofcompaniesthattraditionallycalculatetheirrevenue/salesratioaccordingtothe80/20rule—wherethetopfifthofproductscontributefour-fifthsofrevenues.EcastaSanFranciscodigitaljukeboxcompanyfoundthat98%ofits10000albumssoldatleastonetrackeverythreemonths.ExpressedinthelanguageofstatisticstheexperiencesofEcastandothercompaniessuchasAmazonanonlinebooksellersuggestthatproductsdowninthelongtailofastatisticaldistributionaddedtogethercanbehighlyprofitable.Theinternethelpspeoplefindtheirwaytorelativelyobscurematerialwithrecommendationsandreviewsbyotherpeopleandforthosewillingtohavetheirartistictastespredictedbyapieceofsoftwarecomputerprogramswhichanalyzepastselections. Long-tailenthusiastsarguethatthewholeofculturewillbenefitnotjustcommercialenterprises.Televisionfilmandmusicaresuchbewitchingmediaintheirownrightthatmanypeoplearequitehappytowatchandlistentowhatthemainstreamprovides.Butifindividualshavetheopportunitytopickbettermoreideallysuitedentertainmentfromafarwiderselectiontheywilltakeitaccordingtothetheoryofthelongtail.Someanalystsreckonthatentirepopulationsmightbecomehappierandwiseroncetheyhaveaccesstothousandsofdocumentariesindependentfilmsandsub-genresofeverykindofmusicinsteadofbeingsubjectedtowhatMrAndersoncallsthetyrannyoflowest-common-denominatorfare.Thatmightbetakingthingsabitfar.Butthelongtailiscertainlyoneoftheinternet’sbettergiftstohumanity. Accordingtothefirstparagraphtheauthorbelievesthat
ArecentpollindicatedthathalftheteenagersintheUnitedStatesbelievethatcommunicationbetweenthemandtheirparentsis1andfurtherthatoneoftheprimecausesofthisgapis2listeningbehavior.Asaan3inpointoneparentbelievedthatherdaughterhadasevere4problem.Shewasso5thatshetookhertoanaudiologisttohavehereartested.Theaudiologistcarefullytestedbothearsandreportedbacktotheparent:"There’snothingwrongwithherhearing.She’sjust6youout." Aleadingcauseofthe7divorceratemorethanhalfofallmarriagesendindivorceisthefailureofhusbandsandwivesto8effectively.Theydon’tlistentoeachother.Neitherperson9totheactualmessagesentbytheother. In10fashionpoliticalscientistsreportthatagrowingnumberofpeoplebelievethattheirelectedand11officialsareoutof12withtheconstituentstheyaresupposedly13WhyBecausetheydon’tbelievethattheylistentothem.Infactitseemsthatsometimesourpoliticiansdon’tevenlistentothemselves.Thefollowingisatruestory:Atanational14conferenceheldinAlbuquerquesomeyearsagothenSenatorJosephMontoyawas15acopyofapressreleasebyapressaideshortlybeforehegotupbeforetheaudienceto16aspeech.Whenherosetospeak17thehorrorofthepressaideandthe18ofhisaudienceMontoyabeganreadingthepressreleasenothisspeech.Hebegan"Forimmediaterelease.SenatorJosephM.MontoyaDemocratofNewMexicolastnighttoldtheNational..."Montoyareadtheentiresixpagerelease19withthestatementthathe"wasrepeatedly20byapplause. 19
Inmostpartsoftheworldclimatechangeisaworryingsubject.NotsoinCalifornia.Atarecentgatheringofgreenluminaries--inafilmstar’shousenaturallyforthatishowseriousnessisoftenestablishedinLosAngeles--thedominantnotewasself-satisfactionatwhatthestatehasalreadyachieved.AndperhapsnobodyismorecomplacentthanArnoldSchwarzenegger.UnlikeA1GoreapresidentialcandidateturnedprophetofenvironmentaldoomCalifornia’sgovernorsoundscheerfulwhentalkingaboutclimatechange.Aswellhemight:ithasmadehispoliticalcareer. AlthoughCaliforniahaslongbeenanenvironmentally-consciousstateuntilrecentlygreenswereconcernedaboveallwithsmogandredwoodtrees."CoastofDreams"KevinStarr’sauthoritativehistoryofcontemporaryCaliforniapublishedin2004doesnotmentionclimatechange.Inthatyearthoughthenewly-electedMr.Schwarzeneggermadehisfirsttentativecallforwesternstatestoseekalternativestofossilfuels.Graduallyhenoticedthathiseffortstotackleclimatechangemetwithlessresistanceandmoreacclaimthanjustaboutallhisotherpolicies.Thesedaysitcanseemasthoughheworksonnothingelse. Mr.Schwarzenegger’stransformationfromscreenwarriortoeco-warriorwascompletedlastyearwhenhesignedabillimposinglegally-enforceablelimitsongreenhouse--gasemissions--afirstforAmerica.ThanksmostlytoitslackofcoalandheavyindustryCaliforniaisarelativelycleanstate.Ifitwereacountryitwouldbetheworld’seighth-biggesteconomybutonlyits16th-biggestpolluter.Itsbigproblemistransport--meaningmostlycarsandtruckswhichaccountformorethan40%ofitsgreenhouse-gasemissionscomparedwith32%inAmericaasawhole.Thestatewantstoratchetdownemissionslimitsonnewvehiclesbeginningin2009.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasalsoorderedthatby2020vehiclefuelmustproduce10%lesscarbon:intheproductionaswellastheburningsoasimpleswitchtocorn-basedethanolisprobablyout. ThanksinparttoCalifornia’sexamplemostofthewesternstateshaveadoptedclimateactionplans.WhenitcomestosettingemissiontargetsthescenecanresembleaposedownataMr.Olympiacontest.Arizona’sclimate-changescholarsdecidedtosetatargetofcuttingthestate’semissionsto2000levelsby2020.ButJanetNapolitanothegovernorwasdeterminednottobeout-muscledbyCalifornia.ShehasdeclaredthatArizonawilltrytoreturnto2000emissionlevelsby2012. Californiahasnotjustinspiredotherstates;ithascreatedavanguardthatoughttobeabletoprodthefederalgovernmentintostrongernationalstandardsthanitwouldotherwiseconsider.ButCaliforniaisfindingiteasiertoexportitspoliciesthantoputthemintopracticeathome.InonewayCalifornia’sself-confidenceisfullyjustified.Ithasdonemorethananyotherstate--letalonethefederalgovernment--tofixAmerica’sattentiononclimatechange.Ithasalsomadeitseemasthoughtheproblemcanbesolved.Whichiswhyfailurewouldbesuchbadnews.AtthemomentCaliforniaisabeacontootherstates.Ifitfailsitwillbecomeanexcuseforinaction. Corn-basedethanolmightnotbechosenasanalternativebecause
Anawkward-lookingcharactersuchasCyranodeBergeracmightsniffatthesuggestionbutrecentscientificresearchshowsbeautybrainsandbrawnmayinfactallbealliedwritesDrRajPersaud. 46Psychologistshaveconcludedthatwemaybedrawntothestereotypicallyattractivebecauseofwhattheirfacesrevealabouttheirintelligenceandsuccessinlaterlife.InAmericanresearchledbyProfessorLeslieZebrowitzofBrandeisUniversityhasshownanassociationbetweenfacialattractiveandIQ.Strangersbrieflyexposedtoatarget’sfacewereabletocorrectlyjudgeintelligenceatlevelssignificantlybetterthanchance. Thesameteamalsoresearchedhowaperson’sattractivenessmightbearrelationtotheirintelligence.Theyfoundthatgood-lookingpeopledidbetterinIQtestsastheyaged.47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.48Perhapsbecausethemoreattractivepeopleweretreatedasmoreintelligenttheyendeduphavingmorestimulatingandthereforeintelligence-enhancinglives. DoesthismeanthatyourfacereallycouldbeyourdestinySociologistsDrUlrichMuellerandDrAllanMazuroftheUniversityofMarburginGermanyrecentlyanalyzedthefinalyearphotographsofthe1950graduatesofWestPointintheUnitedStates.Dominantfacialappearancesturnedouttobeaconsistentpredictoroflater-rankattainment: Againtheybelievedtherecouldbeaself-fulfillingeffect.49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks. AteamattheRoyalCollegeofSurgeonsinDublinhasbeeninvestigatingthesensitivesubjectoflinksbetweenphysicalandmentalabnormalities.LedbyDoctorsRobinHennessyandJohnWaddingtontheteamusedanewlasersurface-scanningtechniquetomakea3-Danalysisofhowfacialshapemightvarywithbrainstructure.Theirfindingsshowedthatinearlyfetallifebrainandfacedevelopmentareintimatelyconnected.Fromthistheyconcludedthatabnormalitiesinbrainelaborationprobablyalsoaffectfacedevelopment. ThisaccordingtothemexplainsthestrikingfacialfeaturesofsomeonewithDown’ssyndrome.50Usingsimilartechniquestheteamalsodemonstratedhowotherdisorderslinkedtobrainaberrationscouldbeassociatedwithfacialalterations. Sotheverylatestscientificresearchsuggeststhatnobodyshouldtrytolooktooobviouslydifferentfromaverage. 49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks.
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 1
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 7
FORthepasttwoyearsinSiliconValleythecentreofAmerica’stechnologyindustryconference-goershaveentertainedthemselvesplayingaguessinggame:howmanytimeswillaspeakermentionthephrase"longtail"ItisusuallyahighnumberthankstotheinfluenceofthelongtailtheorywhichwasfirstdevelopedbyChrisAndersontheeditorofWiredmagazineinanarticlein2004.Thoughtechnologistsandbloggerschuckleathoweverybusinesspresentationnowhastohaveitslong-tailsectionmostareenviousofMrAndersonwhosebrainwavequicklybecamethemostfashionablebusinessideaaround. Whetherablockbusterfilmabestsellingnovelorachart-toppingrapsongpopularcultureidolizesthehit.Companiesdevotethemselvestocreatingthembecausethecostofdistributionandthelimitsofshelfspaceinphysicalshopsmeanthatprofitabilitydependsonahighvolumeofsales.Butaroundthebeginningofthiscenturyagroupofinternetcompaniesrealizedthatwithendlessshelvesandanationaloreveninternationalaudienceonlinetheycouldofferahugerangeofproducts—andmakemoneyatthesametime. ThenichetheobscureandthespecialistMrAndersonargueswillgaingroundattheexpenseofthehit.Asevidencehepointstoadropinthenumberofcompaniesthattraditionallycalculatetheirrevenue/salesratioaccordingtothe80/20rule—wherethetopfifthofproductscontributefour-fifthsofrevenues.EcastaSanFranciscodigitaljukeboxcompanyfoundthat98%ofits10000albumssoldatleastonetrackeverythreemonths.ExpressedinthelanguageofstatisticstheexperiencesofEcastandothercompaniessuchasAmazonanonlinebooksellersuggestthatproductsdowninthelongtailofastatisticaldistributionaddedtogethercanbehighlyprofitable.Theinternethelpspeoplefindtheirwaytorelativelyobscurematerialwithrecommendationsandreviewsbyotherpeopleandforthosewillingtohavetheirartistictastespredictedbyapieceofsoftwarecomputerprogramswhichanalyzepastselections. Long-tailenthusiastsarguethatthewholeofculturewillbenefitnotjustcommercialenterprises.Televisionfilmandmusicaresuchbewitchingmediaintheirownrightthatmanypeoplearequitehappytowatchandlistentowhatthemainstreamprovides.Butifindividualshavetheopportunitytopickbettermoreideallysuitedentertainmentfromafarwiderselectiontheywilltakeitaccordingtothetheoryofthelongtail.Someanalystsreckonthatentirepopulationsmightbecomehappierandwiseroncetheyhaveaccesstothousandsofdocumentariesindependentfilmsandsub-genresofeverykindofmusicinsteadofbeingsubjectedtowhatMrAndersoncallsthetyrannyoflowest-common-denominatorfare.Thatmightbetakingthingsabitfar.Butthelongtailiscertainlyoneoftheinternet’sbettergiftstohumanity. Withwhichofthefollowingwouldthelong-tailadvocatesmostprobablyagree
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 5
WhenLiamMcGeedepartedaspresidentofBankofAmericainAugusthisexplanationwassurprisinglystraightup.Ratherthancloakinghisexitintheusualvagueexcuseshecamerightoutandsaidhewasleavingtopursuemygoalofrunningacompany.BroadcastinghisambitionwasverymuchmydecisionMcGeesays.WithintwoweekshewastalkingforthefirsttimewiththeboardofHartfordFinancialServicesGroupwhichnamedhimCEOandchairmanonSeptember29.McGeesaysleavingwithoutapositionlinedupgavehimtimetoreflectonwhatkindofcompanyhewantedtorun.Italsosentaclearmessagetotheoutsideworldabouthisaspirations.AndMcGeeisn’talone.InrecentweekstheNo.2executivesatAvonandAmericanExpressquitwiththeexplanationthattheywerelookingforaCEOpost.Asboardsscrutinizesuccessionplansinresponsetoshareholderpressureexecutiveswhodon’tgetthenodalsomaywishtomoveon.Aturbulentbusinessenvironmentalsohasseniormanagerscautiousoflettingvaguepronouncementscloudtheirreputations.Asthefirstsignsofrecoverybegintotakeholddeputychiefsmaybemorewillingtomakethejumpwithoutanet.InthethirdquarterCEOturnoverwasdown23%fromayearagoasnervousboardsstuckwiththeleaderstheyhadaccordingtoLiberumResearch.Astheeconomypicksupopportunitieswillaboundforaspiringleaders.Thedecisiontoquitaseniorpositiontolookforabetteroneisunconventional.ForyearsexecutivesandheadhuntershaveadheredtotherulethatthemostattractiveCEOcandidatesaretheoneswhomustbepoached.SaysKorn/FerryseniorpartnerDennisCarey:Ican’tthinkofasinglesearchI’vedonewhereaboardhasnotinstructedmetolookatsittingCEOsfirst.Thosewhojumpedwithoutajobhaven’talwayslandedintoppositionsquickly.EllenMarramquitaschiefofTropicanaadecadeagesayingshewantedtobeaCEO.ItwasayearbeforeshebecameheadofatinyInternet-basedcommoditiesexchange.RobertWillumstadleftCitigroupin2005withambitionstobeaCEO.Hefinallytookthatpostatamajorfinancialinstitutionthreeyearslater.Manyrecruiterssaytheolddisgraceisfadingfortopperformers.Thefinancialcrisishasmadeitmoreacceptabletobebetweenjobsortoleaveabadone.Thetraditionalrulewasit’ssafertostaywhereyouarebutthat’sbeenfundamentallyinvertedsaysoneheadhunter.Thepeoplewho’vebeenhurttheworstarethosewho’vestayedtoolong.Itcanbeinferredfromthelastparagraphthat
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 45
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 9
Whenthereisbloodinthewateritisonlynaturalthatdorsalfinsswirlaroundexcitedly.NowthatAmerica’shousingmarketisailingpredatorshavetheirsightsonthecountry’scredit-cardmarket.AnalystsatGoldmanSachsreckonthatcredit-cardlossescouldreach$99billionifcontagionspreadsfromsubprimemortgagestootherformsofconsumercredit.Signsofstrainareclearlyvisible.Therearerisesinboththecharge-offanddelinquencyrateswhichmeasuretheshareofbalancesthatareuncollectableormorethan30dayslaterespectively.HSBCannouncedlastmonththatithadtakena$1.4billionchargeinitsAmericanconsumer-financebusinesspartlybecauseofweaknessamongcardborrowers. Itistooearlytopanicthough.Charge-offsanddelinquenciesarestilllow.AccordingtoMoody’saratingagencythethird-quarterdelinquencyrateof3.89%wasalmostafullpercentagepointbelowthehistoricalaverage.Thedeteriorationinratescanbepartlyexplainedbytechnicalfactors.AchangeinAmerica’spersonal-bankruptcylawsin2005ledtoanabruptfallinbankruptcyfilingswhichinturnaccountforabigchunkofcredit-cardlosses;thenumberoffilingsandthuscharge-offrateswouldberisingagainwhetherornotoverallconditionsforborrowersweregettingworse. Theindustryalsoreportssolidpaymentrateswhichshowhowmuchoftheirdebtconsumerspayoffeachmonth.Andconfidenceincredit-cardasset-backedsecuritiesisprettyfirmdespiteparalysisinothercornersofstructuredfinance.DennisMoroneyofTowerGrouparesearchfirmpredictsthatissuancevolumesfor2007willendupbeing25%higherthanlastyear. Directchannelsofinfectionbetweenthesubprime-mortgagecrisisandthecredit-cardmarketcertainlyexist:consumersarelikeliertoloaduponcredit-carddebtnowthathome-equityloansaredryingup.Butcardissuerslookatcashflowratherthanassetvaluessofallinghousepricesdonotnecessarilytriggerachangeinborrowers’creditworthiness.Theymayevenworktoissuers’advantage.Theincentivesforconsumerstokeeppayingthemortgagedecreaseifpropertiesareworthlessthanthevalueoftheloan;carddebtriseshigherupthelistofrepaymentprioritiesasaresult. Cardissuersarealsoabletorespondmuchmoreswiftlyandflexiblytostormierconditionsthanmortgagelendersarebychanginginterestratesoralteringcreditlimits.Thatshouldintheoryreducetheriskofarapidrepricingofassets."Wearenotgoingtowakeuponedayandtotallyrevaluetheloans"saysGaryPerlinCapitalOne’schieffinancialofficer. Ifasuddensubprime-stylemeltdowninthecredit-cardmarketisimprobabletherisksofasustaineddownturnaremuchmorereal.IflowerhousepricesandacontractionincreditpushAmericaintorecessiontheindustrywillundoubtedlyfaceagrimmerfuture.Keepwatchingforthosedorsalfins. Inwhatwaydoesthesubprimemortgageinfluencecreditcardmarket
Inmostpartsoftheworldclimatechangeisaworryingsubject.NotsoinCalifornia.Atarecentgatheringofgreenluminaries--inafilmstar’shousenaturallyforthatishowseriousnessisoftenestablishedinLosAngeles--thedominantnotewasself-satisfactionatwhatthestatehasalreadyachieved.AndperhapsnobodyismorecomplacentthanArnoldSchwarzenegger.UnlikeA1GoreapresidentialcandidateturnedprophetofenvironmentaldoomCalifornia’sgovernorsoundscheerfulwhentalkingaboutclimatechange.Aswellhemight:ithasmadehispoliticalcareer. AlthoughCaliforniahaslongbeenanenvironmentally-consciousstateuntilrecentlygreenswereconcernedaboveallwithsmogandredwoodtrees."CoastofDreams"KevinStarr’sauthoritativehistoryofcontemporaryCaliforniapublishedin2004doesnotmentionclimatechange.Inthatyearthoughthenewly-electedMr.Schwarzeneggermadehisfirsttentativecallforwesternstatestoseekalternativestofossilfuels.Graduallyhenoticedthathiseffortstotackleclimatechangemetwithlessresistanceandmoreacclaimthanjustaboutallhisotherpolicies.Thesedaysitcanseemasthoughheworksonnothingelse. Mr.Schwarzenegger’stransformationfromscreenwarriortoeco-warriorwascompletedlastyearwhenhesignedabillimposinglegally-enforceablelimitsongreenhouse--gasemissions--afirstforAmerica.ThanksmostlytoitslackofcoalandheavyindustryCaliforniaisarelativelycleanstate.Ifitwereacountryitwouldbetheworld’seighth-biggesteconomybutonlyits16th-biggestpolluter.Itsbigproblemistransport--meaningmostlycarsandtruckswhichaccountformorethan40%ofitsgreenhouse-gasemissionscomparedwith32%inAmericaasawhole.Thestatewantstoratchetdownemissionslimitsonnewvehiclesbeginningin2009.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasalsoorderedthatby2020vehiclefuelmustproduce10%lesscarbon:intheproductionaswellastheburningsoasimpleswitchtocorn-basedethanolisprobablyout. ThanksinparttoCalifornia’sexamplemostofthewesternstateshaveadoptedclimateactionplans.WhenitcomestosettingemissiontargetsthescenecanresembleaposedownataMr.Olympiacontest.Arizona’sclimate-changescholarsdecidedtosetatargetofcuttingthestate’semissionsto2000levelsby2020.ButJanetNapolitanothegovernorwasdeterminednottobeout-muscledbyCalifornia.ShehasdeclaredthatArizonawilltrytoreturnto2000emissionlevelsby2012. Californiahasnotjustinspiredotherstates;ithascreatedavanguardthatoughttobeabletoprodthefederalgovernmentintostrongernationalstandardsthanitwouldotherwiseconsider.ButCaliforniaisfindingiteasiertoexportitspoliciesthantoputthemintopracticeathome.InonewayCalifornia’sself-confidenceisfullyjustified.Ithasdonemorethananyotherstate--letalonethefederalgovernment--tofixAmerica’sattentiononclimatechange.Ithasalsomadeitseemasthoughtheproblemcanbesolved.Whichiswhyfailurewouldbesuchbadnews.AtthemomentCaliforniaisabeacontootherstates.Ifitfailsitwillbecomeanexcuseforinaction. Itcanbeinferredfromthetextthat
Intheidealizedversionofhowscienceisdonefactsabouttheworldarewaitingtobeobservedandcollectedbyobjectiveresearcherswhousethescientificmethodtocan’youttheirwork.Butintheeverydaypracticeofsciencediscoveryfrequentlyfollowsanambiguousandcomplicatedroute.Weaimtobeobjectivebutwecannotescapethecontextofouruniquelifeexperience.Priorknowledgeandinterestinfluencewhatweexperiencewhatwethinkourexperiencesmeanandthesubsequentactionswetake.Opportunitiesformisinterpretationerrorandself-deceptionabound. Consequentlydiscoveryclaimsshouldbethoughtofasprotoscience.Similartonewlystakedminingclaimstheyarelullofpotential.Butittakescollectivescrutinyandacceptancetotransformadiscoveryclaimintoamaturediscovery.Thisisthecredibilityprocessthroughwhichtheindividualresearcher’smeherenowbecomesthecommunity’sanyoneanywhereanytime.Objectiveknowledgeisthegoalnotthestartingpoint. Onceadiscoveryclaimbecomespublicthediscovererreceivesintellectualcredit.Butunlikewithminingclaimsthecommunitytakescontrolofwhathappensnext.Withinthecomplexsocialstructureofthescientificcommunityresearchersmakediscoveries;editorsandreviewersactasgatekeepersbycontrollingthepublicationprocess;otherscientistsusethenewfindingtosuittheirownpurposes;andfinallythepublicincludingotherscientistsreceivesthenewdiscoveryandpossiblyaccompanyingtechnology.Asadiscoveryclaimworksitwaythroughthecommunitytheinteractionandconfrontationbetweensharedandcompetingbeliefsaboutthescienceandthetechnologyinvolvedtransformsanindividual’sdiscoveryclaimintothecommunity’scrediblediscovery. Twoparadoxesexistthroughoutthiscredibilityprocess.FirstscientificworktendstofocusonsomeaspectofprevailingKnowledgethatisviewedasincompleteorincorrect.Littlerewardaccompaniesduplicationandconfirmationofwhatisalreadyknownandbelieved.Thegoalisnew-searchnotre-search.Notsurprisinglynewlypublisheddiscoveryclaimsandcrediblediscoveriesthatappeartobeimportantandconvincingwillalwaysbeopentochallengeandpotentialmodificationorrefutationbyfutureresearchers.Secondnoveltyitselffrequentlyprovokesdisbelief.NobelLaureateandphysiologistAlbertAzent-Gy6rgyioncedescribeddiscoveryas"seeingwhateverybodyhasseenandthinkingwhatnobodyhasthought."Butthinkingwhatnobodyelsehasthoughtandtellingotherswhattheyhavemissedmaynotchangetheirviews.Sometimesyearsarerequiredfortrulynoveldiscoveryclaimstobeacceptedandappreciated. Intheendcredibility"happens"toadiscoveryclaim—aprocessthatcorrespondstowhatphilosopherAnnetteBaierhasdescribedasthecommonsofthemind."Wereasontogetherchallengereviseandcompleteeachother’sreasoningandeachother’sconceptionsofreason. Whichofthefollowingwouldbethebesttitleofthetest
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 43
Anawkward-lookingcharactersuchasCyranodeBergeracmightsniffatthesuggestionbutrecentscientificresearchshowsbeautybrainsandbrawnmayinfactallbealliedwritesDrRajPersaud. 46Psychologistshaveconcludedthatwemaybedrawntothestereotypicallyattractivebecauseofwhattheirfacesrevealabouttheirintelligenceandsuccessinlaterlife.InAmericanresearchledbyProfessorLeslieZebrowitzofBrandeisUniversityhasshownanassociationbetweenfacialattractiveandIQ.Strangersbrieflyexposedtoatarget’sfacewereabletocorrectlyjudgeintelligenceatlevelssignificantlybetterthanchance. Thesameteamalsoresearchedhowaperson’sattractivenessmightbearrelationtotheirintelligence.Theyfoundthatgood-lookingpeopledidbetterinIQtestsastheyaged.47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.48Perhapsbecausethemoreattractivepeopleweretreatedasmoreintelligenttheyendeduphavingmorestimulatingandthereforeintelligence-enhancinglives. DoesthismeanthatyourfacereallycouldbeyourdestinySociologistsDrUlrichMuellerandDrAllanMazuroftheUniversityofMarburginGermanyrecentlyanalyzedthefinalyearphotographsofthe1950graduatesofWestPointintheUnitedStates.Dominantfacialappearancesturnedouttobeaconsistentpredictoroflater-rankattainment: Againtheybelievedtherecouldbeaself-fulfillingeffect.49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks. AteamattheRoyalCollegeofSurgeonsinDublinhasbeeninvestigatingthesensitivesubjectoflinksbetweenphysicalandmentalabnormalities.LedbyDoctorsRobinHennessyandJohnWaddingtontheteamusedanewlasersurface-scanningtechniquetomakea3-Danalysisofhowfacialshapemightvarywithbrainstructure.Theirfindingsshowedthatinearlyfetallifebrainandfacedevelopmentareintimatelyconnected.Fromthistheyconcludedthatabnormalitiesinbrainelaborationprobablyalsoaffectfacedevelopment. ThisaccordingtothemexplainsthestrikingfacialfeaturesofsomeonewithDown’ssyndrome.50Usingsimilartechniquestheteamalsodemonstratedhowotherdisorderslinkedtobrainaberrationscouldbeassociatedwithfacialalterations. Sotheverylatestscientificresearchsuggeststhatnobodyshouldtrytolooktooobviouslydifferentfromaverage. 47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.
Whenthereisbloodinthewateritisonlynaturalthatdorsalfinsswirlaroundexcitedly.NowthatAmerica’shousingmarketisailingpredatorshavetheirsightsonthecountry’scredit-cardmarket.AnalystsatGoldmanSachsreckonthatcredit-cardlossescouldreach$99billionifcontagionspreadsfromsubprimemortgagestootherformsofconsumercredit.Signsofstrainareclearlyvisible.Therearerisesinboththecharge-offanddelinquencyrateswhichmeasuretheshareofbalancesthatareuncollectableormorethan30dayslaterespectively.HSBCannouncedlastmonththatithadtakena$1.4billionchargeinitsAmericanconsumer-financebusinesspartlybecauseofweaknessamongcardborrowers. Itistooearlytopanicthough.Charge-offsanddelinquenciesarestilllow.AccordingtoMoody’saratingagencythethird-quarterdelinquencyrateof3.89%wasalmostafullpercentagepointbelowthehistoricalaverage.Thedeteriorationinratescanbepartlyexplainedbytechnicalfactors.AchangeinAmerica’spersonal-bankruptcylawsin2005ledtoanabruptfallinbankruptcyfilingswhichinturnaccountforabigchunkofcredit-cardlosses;thenumberoffilingsandthuscharge-offrateswouldberisingagainwhetherornotoverallconditionsforborrowersweregettingworse. Theindustryalsoreportssolidpaymentrateswhichshowhowmuchoftheirdebtconsumerspayoffeachmonth.Andconfidenceincredit-cardasset-backedsecuritiesisprettyfirmdespiteparalysisinothercornersofstructuredfinance.DennisMoroneyofTowerGrouparesearchfirmpredictsthatissuancevolumesfor2007willendupbeing25%higherthanlastyear. Directchannelsofinfectionbetweenthesubprime-mortgagecrisisandthecredit-cardmarketcertainlyexist:consumersarelikeliertoloaduponcredit-carddebtnowthathome-equityloansaredryingup.Butcardissuerslookatcashflowratherthanassetvaluessofallinghousepricesdonotnecessarilytriggerachangeinborrowers’creditworthiness.Theymayevenworktoissuers’advantage.Theincentivesforconsumerstokeeppayingthemortgagedecreaseifpropertiesareworthlessthanthevalueoftheloan;carddebtriseshigherupthelistofrepaymentprioritiesasaresult. Cardissuersarealsoabletorespondmuchmoreswiftlyandflexiblytostormierconditionsthanmortgagelendersarebychanginginterestratesoralteringcreditlimits.Thatshouldintheoryreducetheriskofarapidrepricingofassets."Wearenotgoingtowakeuponedayandtotallyrevaluetheloans"saysGaryPerlinCapitalOne’schieffinancialofficer. Ifasuddensubprime-stylemeltdowninthecredit-cardmarketisimprobabletherisksofasustaineddownturnaremuchmorereal.IflowerhousepricesandacontractionincreditpushAmericaintorecessiontheindustrywillundoubtedlyfaceagrimmerfuture.Keepwatchingforthosedorsalfins. WhichofthefollowingstatementsmayNOTsupporttheexpressionItistooearlytopanicthoughinthesecondparagraph
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