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In most parts of the world, climate change is a worrying subject. Not so in California. At a rece...
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In1929JohnD.Rockefellerdecideditwastimetosellshareswhenevenashoe-shineboyofferedhimasharetip.DuringthepastweekTheEconomist’seconomicseditorhasbeenadvisedbyataxidriveraplumberandahairdresserthat"youcan’tgowrong"investinginhousing-themoreyouownthebetter.IsthisasignthatitistimetogetoutAttheveryleastashousepricesaroundtheworldclimbtoeverloftierheightsandmoreandmorepeoplejumpontothebuy-to-letladderitistimetoexposesomeofthefallaciesregularlytrottedoutbysomanyself-appointedhousingexperts. Onecommonerroristhathousepricesmustcontinuetorisebecauseofalimitedsupplyofland.Forinstanceitisarguedthat"housepriceswillalwaysriseinLondonbecauselotsofpeoplewanttolivehere".Butthisconfusesthelevelofpriceswiththeirrateofchange.Homepricesareboundtobehigherinbigcitiesbecauseoflandscarcitybutthisdoesnotguaranteethaturbanhousepriceswillkeeprisingindefinitely-justlookatTokyo’shugeprice-dropssince1990.Andthoughitistruethatafixedsupplyofhomesmaypushuphousepricesifthepopulationisrisingthiswouldimplyasteadyriseinpricesnotthe20%annualjumpsofrecentyears. Asecondflawedargumentisthatlowinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperandsopushupdemandandprices.Lowerinterestratesmayhaveallowedsomepeoplewhootherwisecouldnothaveaffordedamortgagetobuyahome.Butmanyborrowerswhothinkmortgagesarecheaperaresufferingfrommoneyillusion. Interestratesarenotverylowinrealinflation-adjustedterms.Initialinterestpaymentsmayseemlowinrelationtoincomebutbecauseinflationisalsolowitwillnoterodetherealburdenofdebtasswiftlyasitoncedid.Soinlateryearsmortgagepaymentswillbemuchlargerinrealterms.Toarguethatlownominalinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperislikearguingthatacarloanpaidoffoverfouryearsischeaperthanonerepaidovertwoyears. FallacynumberthreeisafavouriteclaimofAlanGreenspanchairmanofAmerica’sFederalReserve.Thisisthatpricebubblesarelesslikelyinhousingthaninthestockmarketbecausehighertransactioncostsdiscouragespeculation.Infactseveralstudieshaveshownthatbothintheoryandinpracticebubblesaremorelikelyinhousingthaninshares.AstudybytheIMFfindsthatasharpriseinhousepricesisfarmorelikelytobefollowedbyabustthanisashare-priceboom. ThetermfallaciesLine6Paragraph1mostprobablymeans
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic--inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia--oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioneconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其货币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow--ieabout￡0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 3
In1929JohnD.Rockefellerdecideditwastimetosellshareswhenevenashoe-shineboyofferedhimasharetip.DuringthepastweekTheEconomist’seconomicseditorhasbeenadvisedbyataxidriveraplumberandahairdresserthat"youcan’tgowrong"investinginhousing-themoreyouownthebetter.IsthisasignthatitistimetogetoutAttheveryleastashousepricesaroundtheworldclimbtoeverloftierheightsandmoreandmorepeoplejumpontothebuy-to-letladderitistimetoexposesomeofthefallaciesregularlytrottedoutbysomanyself-appointedhousingexperts. Onecommonerroristhathousepricesmustcontinuetorisebecauseofalimitedsupplyofland.Forinstanceitisarguedthat"housepriceswillalwaysriseinLondonbecauselotsofpeoplewanttolivehere".Butthisconfusesthelevelofpriceswiththeirrateofchange.Homepricesareboundtobehigherinbigcitiesbecauseoflandscarcitybutthisdoesnotguaranteethaturbanhousepriceswillkeeprisingindefinitely-justlookatTokyo’shugeprice-dropssince1990.Andthoughitistruethatafixedsupplyofhomesmaypushuphousepricesifthepopulationisrisingthiswouldimplyasteadyriseinpricesnotthe20%annualjumpsofrecentyears. Asecondflawedargumentisthatlowinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperandsopushupdemandandprices.Lowerinterestratesmayhaveallowedsomepeoplewhootherwisecouldnothaveaffordedamortgagetobuyahome.Butmanyborrowerswhothinkmortgagesarecheaperaresufferingfrommoneyillusion. Interestratesarenotverylowinrealinflation-adjustedterms.Initialinterestpaymentsmayseemlowinrelationtoincomebutbecauseinflationisalsolowitwillnoterodetherealburdenofdebtasswiftlyasitoncedid.Soinlateryearsmortgagepaymentswillbemuchlargerinrealterms.Toarguethatlownominalinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperislikearguingthatacarloanpaidoffoverfouryearsischeaperthanonerepaidovertwoyears. FallacynumberthreeisafavouriteclaimofAlanGreenspanchairmanofAmerica’sFederalReserve.Thisisthatpricebubblesarelesslikelyinhousingthaninthestockmarketbecausehighertransactioncostsdiscouragespeculation.Infactseveralstudieshaveshownthatbothintheoryandinpracticebubblesaremorelikelyinhousingthaninshares.AstudybytheIMFfindsthatasharpriseinhousepricesisfarmorelikelytobefollowedbyabustthanisashare-priceboom. Theauthorofthetextmakesacomparisonin
Acomputermodelhasbeendevelopedthatcanpredictwhatwordyouarethinkingof.41ResearchersledbyTomMitchellofCarnegieMellonUniversityinPittsburghPennsylvania"trained"acomputermodeltorecognizethepatternsofbrainactivityassociatedwith60imageseachofwhichrepresentedadifferentnounsuchas"celery"or"aeroplane". 42.Wordssuchas"hammer"forexampleaxeknowntocausemovement-relatedareasofthebraintolightup;ontheotherhandtheword"castle"triggersactivityinregionsthatprocessspatialinformation.Mitchellandhiscolleaguesalsoknewthatdifferentnounsareassociatedmoreoftenwithsomeverbsthanwithothers--theverb"eat"forexampleismorelikelytobefoundinconjunctionwith"celery"thanwith"aeroplane".Theresearchersdesignedthemodeltotryandusethesesemanticlinkstoworkouthowthebrainwouldreacttoparticularnouns.Theyfed25suchverbsintothemodel. 43.Theresearchersthenfedthemodel58ofthe60nounstotrainit.Foreachnounthemodelsortedthroughatrillion-wordbodyoftexttofindhowitwasrelatedtothe25verbsandhowthatrelatedtotheactivationpattern.Aftertrainingthemodelswereputtothetest.Theirtaskwastopredictthepatternofactivityforthetwomissingwordsfromthegroupof60andthentodeducewhichwordwaswhich.Onaveragethemodelscameupwiththerightanswermorethanthree-quartersofthetime. Theteamthenwentonestepfurtherthistimetrainingthemodelson59ofthe60testwordsandthenshowingthemanewbrainactivitypatternandofferingthemachoiceof1001wordstomatchit.Themodelsperformedwellabovechancewhentheyweremadetorankthe1001wordsaccordingtohowwelltheymatchedthepattern.Theideaissimilartoanother"brain-reading"technique.44.Itshouldn’tbetoodifficulttogetthemodeltochooseaccuratelybetweenalargernumberofwordssaysJohn-DylanHaynes. AnaverageEnglishspeakerknows50000wordsMitchellsayssothemodelcouldintheorybeusedtoselectanywordasubjectchoosestothinkof.EvenwholesentencesmightnotbetoodistantaprospectforthemodelsaysMitchell."Nowthatwecanseeindividualwordsitgivesthescaffoldingforstartingtoseewhatthebraindoeswithmultiplewordsasitassemblesthem"hesays.45 Modelssuchasthisonecouldalsobeusefulindiagnosingdisordersoflanguageorhelpingstudentspickupaforeignlanguage.Insemanticdementiaforexamplepeoplelosetheabilitytorememberthemeaningsofthings--shownapictureofachihuahuatheycanonlyrecall"dog"forexample--butlittleisknownaboutwhatexactlygoeswronginthebrain."Wecouldlookatwhattheneuralencodingisforthis"saysMitchell. [A]TheteamthenusedfunctionalmagneticresonanceimagingFMRItoscanthebrainsof9volunteersastheylookedatimagesofthenouns [B]Thestudycanpredictwhatpictureapersonisseeingfromaselectionofmorethan100reportedbyNatureearlierthisyear [C]Themodelmayhelptoresolvequestionsabouthowthebrainprocesseswordsandlanguageandmightevenleadtotechniquesfordecodingpeople’sthoughts [D]Thisgivesresearchersthechancetounderstandthe"mentalchemistry"thatthebraindoeswhenitprocessessuchphrasesMitchellsuggests [E]Thisresearchmaybeusefulforahumancomputerinterfacebutdoesnotcapturethecomplexnetworkthatallowsarealbraintolearnandusewordsinacreativeway [F]Theteamstartedwiththeassumptionthatthebrainprocesseswordsintermsofhowtheyrelatetomovementandsensoryinformation [G]Thenewmodelisdifferentinthatithastolookatthemeaningsofthewordsratherthanjustlower-levelvisualfeaturesofapicture 41
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic--inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia--oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioneconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其货币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow--ieabout￡0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 7
Thequestionofwhetherwarisinevitableisonewhichhasconcernedmanyoftheworld’sgreatwriters.Beforeconsideringthisquestionitwillbeusefultointroducesomerelatedconcepts.Conflictdefinedasoppositionamongsocialentitiesdirectedagainstoneanotherisdistinguishedfromcompetitiondefinedasoppositionamongsocialentitiesindependentlystrivingforsomethingwhichisininadequateaupply.Competitorsmaynotbeawareofoneanotherwhilethepartiestoaconflictare.Conflictandcompetitionarebothcategoriesofoppositionwhichhasbeendefinedasaprocessbywhichsocialentitiesfunctionisthedisserviceofoneanother. Oppositionisthuscontrastedwithcooperationtheprocessbywhichsocialentitiesfunctionintheserviceofoneanother.Thesedefinitionsarenecessarybecauseitisimportanttoemphasizethatcompetitionbetweenindividualsorgroupsininevitableinaworldoflimitedresourcesbutconflictisnot.Conflictneverthelessisverylikelytooccurandisprobablyanessentialanddesirableelementofhumansocieties. Manyauthorshavearguedfortheinevitabilityofwarfromthepremisethatinthestruggleforexistenceamonganimalspecies0nlythefittestsurvive.Ingeneralhoweverthisstruggleinnatureiscompetitionnotconflict.Socialanimalssuchasmonkeysandcattlefighttowinormaintainleadershipofthegroup.Thestruggleforexistenceoccursnotinsuchfightsbutinthecompetitionforlimitedfeedingareasandforoccupancyofareasfreefrommeat-eatinganimals.Thosewhofailinthiscompetitionstarvetodeathorbecomevictimstootherspecies.Thisstruggleforexistencedoesnotresemblehumanwarbutratherthecompetitionofindividualsforjobsmarketsandmaterials.Theessenceofthestruggleisthecompetitionforthenecessitiesoflifethatareinsufficienttosatisfyall. Amongnationsthereiscompetitionindevelopingresourcestradesskillsandasatisfactorywayoflife.Thesuccessfulnationsgrowandprosper;theunsuccessfuldecline.Whileitistruethatthiscompetitionmayinduceeffortstoexpandterritoryattheexpenseofothersandthusleadtoconflictitcannotbesaidthatwar-likeconflictamongnationsisinevitablealthoughcompetitionis. Theauthorindicatesinthepassagethatconflict
Culturalresponsestomodernizationoftenmanifestthemselvesinthemassmedia.ForexampleAldousHuxleyinBraveNewWorldcreatedafictionalworldinwhichhecautionedreadersthatmodernscienceandtechnologyposedathreattoindividualdignity.CharlieChaplin’sfilmModernTimessetinafuturisticmanufacturingplantalsotoldthestoryofthedehumanizingimpactofmodernizationandmachinery.Writersandartistsintheircriticismsofthemodernworldoftenpointtotechnology’sabilitytoalienatepeoplefromoneanothercapitalism’stendencytofostergreedandgovernment’sinclinationtocreatebureaucraciesthatoppressratherthanhelppeople. Amongthemajorvaluesofthemodernperiodfourtypicallymanifestthemselvesintheculturalenvironment:celebratingtheindividualbelievinginrationalorderworkingefficientlyandrejectingtradition.Thesevaluesofthemodernperiodwereoriginallyembodiedintheprintingpressandlaterinnewspapersandmagazines.Theprintmediaencouragedthevisionofindividualwriterspublishersandreaderswhocirculatednewideas.Whereasthepremodernperiodwasguidedbystrongbeliefsinanaturalordivineorderbecomingmodernmeantelevatingindividualself-expressiontoacentralposition.AlongwithdemocraticbreakthroughshoweverindividualismandtheIndustrialRevolutiontriggeredmodernformsofhierarchyinwhichcertainindividualsandgroupsachievedhigherstandinginthesocialorder.Forexamplethosewhomanagedcommercialenterprisesgainedmorecontrolovertheeconomicladderwhileanintellectualclassofmodernexpertswhomasteredspecializedrealmsofknowledgegainedincreasingpoweroverthenation’ssocialpoliticalandculturalagendas. Tobemodernalsomeanttovaluethecapacityoforganizedscientificmindstosolveproblemsefficiently.Progressivethinkersmaintainedthattheprintingpressthetelegraphandtherailroadincombinationwithascientificattitudewouldfosteranewtypeofinformedsociety.Atthecoreofthissocietytheprintedmassmediaparticularlynewspaperswouldeducatethecitizenryhelpingtobuildandmaintainanorganizedsocialframework.Journalistsstroveforthepremodernidealthroughamorefact-basedandefficientapproachtoreporting.Theydiscardeddecorativewritingandchampionedaleanlook.Modernfront-pagenewsde-emphasizeddescriptioncommentaryandhistoricalcontext.TheleadsentencesthatreportedapresidentialpressconferencebegantolooksimilarwhethertheywereonthefrontpageinTupeloMississippiorWahpetonNorthDakota.JustasmodernarchitecturemademanyAmericanskylineslookalikethefrontpagesofnewspapersbegantoresembleoneanother. Finallytobemodernmeanttothrowofftherigidrulesofthepasttobreakwithtradition.Modernjournalismbecamecaptivatedbytimelyandimmediateevents.Asaresultthemorestandardizedformsoffront-pagejournalismontheonehandchampionedfactsandcurrenteventswhileefficientlymeetingdeadlines.Butontheotherhandmodernnewspapersoftenfailedtotakeahistoricalperspectiveortoanalyzesufficientlytheideasunderlyingtheseevents. Thepassageismainlyabout
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic--inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia--oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioneconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其货币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow--ieabout￡0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 17
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic--inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia--oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioneconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其货币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow--ieabout￡0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 9
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic--inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia--oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioneconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其货币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow--ieabout￡0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 5
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic--inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia--oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioneconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其货币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow--ieabout￡0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 15
Thequestionofwhetherwarisinevitableisonewhichhasconcernedmanyoftheworld’sgreatwriters.Beforeconsideringthisquestionitwillbeusefultointroducesomerelatedconcepts.Conflictdefinedasoppositionamongsocialentitiesdirectedagainstoneanotherisdistinguishedfromcompetitiondefinedasoppositionamongsocialentitiesindependentlystrivingforsomethingwhichisininadequateaupply.Competitorsmaynotbeawareofoneanotherwhilethepartiestoaconflictare.Conflictandcompetitionarebothcategoriesofoppositionwhichhasbeendefinedasaprocessbywhichsocialentitiesfunctionisthedisserviceofoneanother. Oppositionisthuscontrastedwithcooperationtheprocessbywhichsocialentitiesfunctionintheserviceofoneanother.Thesedefinitionsarenecessarybecauseitisimportanttoemphasizethatcompetitionbetweenindividualsorgroupsininevitableinaworldoflimitedresourcesbutconflictisnot.Conflictneverthelessisverylikelytooccurandisprobablyanessentialanddesirableelementofhumansocieties. Manyauthorshavearguedfortheinevitabilityofwarfromthepremisethatinthestruggleforexistenceamonganimalspecies0nlythefittestsurvive.Ingeneralhoweverthisstruggleinnatureiscompetitionnotconflict.Socialanimalssuchasmonkeysandcattlefighttowinormaintainleadershipofthegroup.Thestruggleforexistenceoccursnotinsuchfightsbutinthecompetitionforlimitedfeedingareasandforoccupancyofareasfreefrommeat-eatinganimals.Thosewhofailinthiscompetitionstarvetodeathorbecomevictimstootherspecies.Thisstruggleforexistencedoesnotresemblehumanwarbutratherthecompetitionofindividualsforjobsmarketsandmaterials.Theessenceofthestruggleisthecompetitionforthenecessitiesoflifethatareinsufficienttosatisfyall. Amongnationsthereiscompetitionindevelopingresourcestradesskillsandasatisfactorywayoflife.Thesuccessfulnationsgrowandprosper;theunsuccessfuldecline.Whileitistruethatthiscompetitionmayinduceeffortstoexpandterritoryattheexpenseofothersandthusleadtoconflictitcannotbesaidthatwar-likeconflictamongnationsisinevitablealthoughcompetitionis. Accordingtotheauthorcompetitiondiffersfromconflictinthat
IfyouareatouristinterestedinseeingabaseballgamewhileinNewYorkyoucanFindoutwhichofitsteamsareintownsimplybysendingamessagetoAskForCents.com.Inafewminutestheanswercomesbackapparentlysuppliedbyamachinebutactuallycomposedbyahuman.Usinghumanstoprocessinformationinamachine-likewayisnotnew-itwaspioneeredbytheMechanicalTurkafamed18th-centurychess-playingmachinethatwasoperatedbyahiddenchessmaster.Butwhilecomputershavesincesurpassedthehumanbrainatchessmanytasksstillbaffleeventhemostpowerfulelectronicbrain. ForinstancecomputerscanfindyouabaseballschedulebuttheycannottellyoudirectlyiftheYankeesareintown.Norcantheytellyouwhethersittinginthebleachersisagoodideaonafirstdate.AskForCentscanbecauseitsanswerscomefrompeople."Whateverquestionyoucancomeupwiththere’sapersonthatcanprovidetheanswer--youdon’thavetheinflexibilityofanalgorithm-drivensystem"saysJesseHeitlerwhodevelopedAskForCents.Mr.HeitlerwasabletodothisthankstoanewsoftwaretooldevelopedbyAmazontheonlineretailerthatallowscomputingtaskstobefarmedouttopeopleovertheinternet.AptlyenoughAmazon’ssystemiscalledMechanicalTurk. Amazon’sTurkisparttoolkitforsoftwaredevelopersandpartonlinebazaar:anyonewithinternetaccesscanregisterasaTurkuserandstartperformingtheHumanIntelligenceTasksHITslistedontheTurkwebsitemturk.com.Companiescanbecome"requesters"bysettingupaseparateaccounttiedtoabankaccountthatwillpayoutfeesandthenpostingtheirHITs.MostHITspaybetweenonecentand$5.Sofarpeoplefrommorethan100countrieshaveperformedHITsthoughonlythosewithAmericanbankaccountscanreceivemoneyfortheirwork;othersarepaidinAmazongiftcertificates. Mr.Heitlersayshehadpreviouslytriedtobuildasimilartoolbutconcludedthattheinfrastructurewouldbedifficulttooperateprofitably.AmazonalreadyhasanextensivesoftwareinfrastructuredesignedforlinkingbuyerswithsellershoweverandtheTurksimplyextendsthatexistingmodel.LastNovemberAmazonunveiledaprototypeofthesystemwhichitcalls"artificialartificialintelligence".ThepremiseisthathumansarevastlysuperiortocomputersattaskssuchaspatternrecognitionsaysPeterCohendirectoroftheprojectatAmazonsowhynotletsoftwaretakeadvantageofhumanstrengths Mr.CohencreditsAmazon’sbossJeffBezoswiththeconceptfortheTurk.Otherpeoplehavehadsimilarideas.EricBonabeauofIcosystemanAmericanfirmthatbuildssoftwaretoolsmodeledonnaturalsystemshasbuiltwhathecallsthe"HunchEngine"tocombinehumanintelligencewithcomputeranalysis.TheFrenchpostalserviceforexamplehasusedittohelpitsworkerschoosethebestdeliveryroutesandpharmaceuticalresearchersareusingittodeterminemolecularstructuresbycombiningtheirgutinstinctswithknownresultsstoredinadatabase.AndafirmcalledSeriosityhopestotapthecollectivebrainpowerofthelegionsofobsessiveplayersofmultiplayeronlinegamessuchas"WorldofWarcraft"bygettingthemtoperformsmallreal-worldtaskssuchassortingphotographswhileplayingandpayingtheminthegame’sowncurrency. WhichofthefollowingistrueaboutregisteredTurkusers
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 17
IfyouareatouristinterestedinseeingabaseballgamewhileinNewYorkyoucanFindoutwhichofitsteamsareintownsimplybysendingamessagetoAskForCents.com.Inafewminutestheanswercomesbackapparentlysuppliedbyamachinebutactuallycomposedbyahuman.Usinghumanstoprocessinformationinamachine-likewayisnotnew-itwaspioneeredbytheMechanicalTurkafamed18th-centurychess-playingmachinethatwasoperatedbyahiddenchessmaster.Butwhilecomputershavesincesurpassedthehumanbrainatchessmanytasksstillbaffleeventhemostpowerfulelectronicbrain. ForinstancecomputerscanfindyouabaseballschedulebuttheycannottellyoudirectlyiftheYankeesareintown.Norcantheytellyouwhethersittinginthebleachersisagoodideaonafirstdate.AskForCentscanbecauseitsanswerscomefrompeople."Whateverquestionyoucancomeupwiththere’sapersonthatcanprovidetheanswer--youdon’thavetheinflexibilityofanalgorithm-drivensystem"saysJesseHeitlerwhodevelopedAskForCents.Mr.HeitlerwasabletodothisthankstoanewsoftwaretooldevelopedbyAmazontheonlineretailerthatallowscomputingtaskstobefarmedouttopeopleovertheinternet.AptlyenoughAmazon’ssystemiscalledMechanicalTurk. Amazon’sTurkisparttoolkitforsoftwaredevelopersandpartonlinebazaar:anyonewithinternetaccesscanregisterasaTurkuserandstartperformingtheHumanIntelligenceTasksHITslistedontheTurkwebsitemturk.com.Companiescanbecome"requesters"bysettingupaseparateaccounttiedtoabankaccountthatwillpayoutfeesandthenpostingtheirHITs.MostHITspaybetweenonecentand$5.Sofarpeoplefrommorethan100countrieshaveperformedHITsthoughonlythosewithAmericanbankaccountscanreceivemoneyfortheirwork;othersarepaidinAmazongiftcertificates. Mr.Heitlersayshehadpreviouslytriedtobuildasimilartoolbutconcludedthattheinfrastructurewouldbedifficulttooperateprofitably.AmazonalreadyhasanextensivesoftwareinfrastructuredesignedforlinkingbuyerswithsellershoweverandtheTurksimplyextendsthatexistingmodel.LastNovemberAmazonunveiledaprototypeofthesystemwhichitcalls"artificialartificialintelligence".ThepremiseisthathumansarevastlysuperiortocomputersattaskssuchaspatternrecognitionsaysPeterCohendirectoroftheprojectatAmazonsowhynotletsoftwaretakeadvantageofhumanstrengths Mr.CohencreditsAmazon’sbossJeffBezoswiththeconceptfortheTurk.Otherpeoplehavehadsimilarideas.EricBonabeauofIcosystemanAmericanfirmthatbuildssoftwaretoolsmodeledonnaturalsystemshasbuiltwhathecallsthe"HunchEngine"tocombinehumanintelligencewithcomputeranalysis.TheFrenchpostalserviceforexamplehasusedittohelpitsworkerschoosethebestdeliveryroutesandpharmaceuticalresearchersareusingittodeterminemolecularstructuresbycombiningtheirgutinstinctswithknownresultsstoredinadatabase.AndafirmcalledSeriosityhopestotapthecollectivebrainpowerofthelegionsofobsessiveplayersofmultiplayeronlinegamessuchas"WorldofWarcraft"bygettingthemtoperformsmallreal-worldtaskssuchassortingphotographswhileplayingandpayingtheminthegame’sowncurrency. Seriosityismentionedinthepassageto
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic--inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia--oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioneconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其货币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow--ieabout￡0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 1
Acomputermodelhasbeendevelopedthatcanpredictwhatwordyouarethinkingof.41ResearchersledbyTomMitchellofCarnegieMellonUniversityinPittsburghPennsylvania"trained"acomputermodeltorecognizethepatternsofbrainactivityassociatedwith60imageseachofwhichrepresentedadifferentnounsuchas"celery"or"aeroplane". 42.Wordssuchas"hammer"forexampleaxeknowntocausemovement-relatedareasofthebraintolightup;ontheotherhandtheword"castle"triggersactivityinregionsthatprocessspatialinformation.Mitchellandhiscolleaguesalsoknewthatdifferentnounsareassociatedmoreoftenwithsomeverbsthanwithothers--theverb"eat"forexampleismorelikelytobefoundinconjunctionwith"celery"thanwith"aeroplane".Theresearchersdesignedthemodeltotryandusethesesemanticlinkstoworkouthowthebrainwouldreacttoparticularnouns.Theyfed25suchverbsintothemodel. 43.Theresearchersthenfedthemodel58ofthe60nounstotrainit.Foreachnounthemodelsortedthroughatrillion-wordbodyoftexttofindhowitwasrelatedtothe25verbsandhowthatrelatedtotheactivationpattern.Aftertrainingthemodelswereputtothetest.Theirtaskwastopredictthepatternofactivityforthetwomissingwordsfromthegroupof60andthentodeducewhichwordwaswhich.Onaveragethemodelscameupwiththerightanswermorethanthree-quartersofthetime. Theteamthenwentonestepfurtherthistimetrainingthemodelson59ofthe60testwordsandthenshowingthemanewbrainactivitypatternandofferingthemachoiceof1001wordstomatchit.Themodelsperformedwellabovechancewhentheyweremadetorankthe1001wordsaccordingtohowwelltheymatchedthepattern.Theideaissimilartoanother"brain-reading"technique.44.Itshouldn’tbetoodifficulttogetthemodeltochooseaccuratelybetweenalargernumberofwordssaysJohn-DylanHaynes. AnaverageEnglishspeakerknows50000wordsMitchellsayssothemodelcouldintheorybeusedtoselectanywordasubjectchoosestothinkof.EvenwholesentencesmightnotbetoodistantaprospectforthemodelsaysMitchell."Nowthatwecanseeindividualwordsitgivesthescaffoldingforstartingtoseewhatthebraindoeswithmultiplewordsasitassemblesthem"hesays.45 Modelssuchasthisonecouldalsobeusefulindiagnosingdisordersoflanguageorhelpingstudentspickupaforeignlanguage.Insemanticdementiaforexamplepeoplelosetheabilitytorememberthemeaningsofthings--shownapictureofachihuahuatheycanonlyrecall"dog"forexample--butlittleisknownaboutwhatexactlygoeswronginthebrain."Wecouldlookatwhattheneuralencodingisforthis"saysMitchell. [A]TheteamthenusedfunctionalmagneticresonanceimagingFMRItoscanthebrainsof9volunteersastheylookedatimagesofthenouns [B]Thestudycanpredictwhatpictureapersonisseeingfromaselectionofmorethan100reportedbyNatureearlierthisyear [C]Themodelmayhelptoresolvequestionsabouthowthebrainprocesseswordsandlanguageandmightevenleadtotechniquesfordecodingpeople’sthoughts [D]Thisgivesresearchersthechancetounderstandthe"mentalchemistry"thatthebraindoeswhenitprocessessuchphrasesMitchellsuggests [E]Thisresearchmaybeusefulforahumancomputerinterfacebutdoesnotcapturethecomplexnetworkthatallowsarealbraintolearnandusewordsinacreativeway [F]Theteamstartedwiththeassumptionthatthebrainprocesseswordsintermsofhowtheyrelatetomovementandsensoryinformation [G]Thenewmodelisdifferentinthatithastolookatthemeaningsofthewordsratherthanjustlower-levelvisualfeaturesofapicture 45
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic--inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia--oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioneconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其货币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow--ieabout￡0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 13
Goingtotheballparkvisitingfriendsandplayingbingoaresimplediversionsformanyofus.Butfortheelderlythesesocialpastimesmayplayacriticalroleinpreservingtheirphysicalandmentalhealth. 46Infactanewstudysuggeststhatthelesstimeolderpeoplespendengagedinsocialactivitythefastertheirmotorfunctiontendstodecline."Everybodyintheir60s70sand80siswalkingmoreslowlythantheydidwhentheywere25"saysDr.AronBuchmananeurologistattheRushUniversityMedicalCenterinChicagoandleadingauthorofthestudywhichwaspublishedintheJune22ndissueoftheArchivesofInternalMedicine.47"Ourstudyshowstheconnectionbetweensocialactivityandmotorfunction--andopensupawholenewuniverseofhowwemightintervene." 48Anincreasingbodyofevidencehassuggestedthatparticipatinginmentallystimulatingactivitysocializingfrequentlyandexercisingmayhelpprotectagainstage-relateddecline-atleastcognitivedecline.Asearlyas1995neuroscientistCarlCotmanwhostudiesaginganddementiaattheUniversityofCaliforniaatIrvinepublishedapaperinNatureshowingthatphysicalexerciseproducesaproteinthathelpskeepneuronsfromdyingandspurstheformationofnewneuralconnectionsinthebrain.49MorerecentlyCotmandemonstratedinstudiesofelderlydogsandmicethatenrichingtheirsocialenvironmentisassociatedwithimprovementinbrainfunction. Researchersarealsofindingthatsocialactivitymaybelinkedtothesameprotectiveeffectinpeople.Arecentstudyof2500adultsages70to79publishedinthejournalNeurologyfoundthatthosewhowereabletostaymentallysharpwerealsothosewhoexercisedonceaweekormorehadatleastaninthgradeliteracylevelandweresociallyactive. Whilefurtherresearchneedstobedonetoestablishtheexactimpactofsocialactivityandexerciseonspecificage-relateddeclines50it’slikelythatareductioninsocialactivitymaysimplybeasymptomofphysicaldeclinesincepeoplemaynaturallywithdrawfromsocialengagementastheylosemotorskills-mostresearcherswouldagreethatitisnotunreasonabletoencourageseniorstogetouttheremore.Only10%ofpeopleover65gettherecommendedamountofexerciseatleast2.5to5hoursaweekandgiventhatseniorsalreadytendtobemoresociallyisolatedthanyoungeradultsit’sdifficulttomotivatethemtobecomemoreactive."Ifyouarealoneyouarelesslikelytofollowrecommendations"notesVerghese.ItmighthelpthoughifyouvisitGrandmamoreoftenandletherknowthataregularpastimemayjusthelpherstayfitterandsharperlonger. 47Ourstudyshowstheconnectionbetweensocialactivityandmotorfunction--andopensupawholenewuniverseofhowwemightintervene.
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic--inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia--oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioneconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其货币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow--ieabout￡0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 19
Directions:Youareinterestedinapositionofeditorofferedbyacompany.Writealetterofapplicationtothentoexpressyourintention.Writeyourletterwithnolessthan100words.Donotsignyournameattheendoftheletter.Use“LiMing”instead.Donotwritetheaddress.
Itistrueasthemovementcriticsassertthatthepresentwomen’sliberationgroupsarealmostentirelybasedamong"middleclass"womenthatiscollegeandcareerwomen;andtheissuesofpsychologicalandsexualexploitationandtoalesserextentexploitationthroughconsumptionhavebeenthemostprominentones. Itisnotsurprisingthatthewomen’sliberationmovementshouldbeginamongbourgeoiswomenandshouldbedominatedinthebeginningbytheirconsciousnessandtheirparticularconcerns.Radicalwomenaregenerallythepostwarmiddleclassgenerationthatgrewupwiththerighttovotethechanceathighereducationandtrainingforsupportiverolesintheprofessionsandbusiness.Mostofthemareyoungandsophisticatedenoughtohavenotyethadchildrenanddonothavetomarrytosupportthemselves.Incomparisonwithmostwomentheyarecapableofacertainamountofcontrolovertheirlives. Thehigherdevelopmentofbourgeoisdemocraticsocietyallowsthewomenwhobenefitfromeducationandrelativeequalitytoseethecontradictionsbetweenitsrhetoriceverychildcanbecomepresidentandtheiractualplaceinthatsociety.Theworkingclasswomanmightbelievethateducationcouldhavemadeherfinanciallyindependentbuttheeducatedcareerwomanfindsthatmoneyhasnotmadeherindependent.Infactbecauseshehasbeenallowedtoprogresshalfwayontheupward-mobilityladdershecanseetherestofthedistancethatisdeniedheronlybecausesheisawoman.Shecanseethesimilaritybetweenheroppressionandthatofothersectionsofthepopulation.Thusfromtheirownexperienceradicalwomeninthemovementareawareofmorefaultsinthesocietythanracismandimperialism.Becausetheyhavepushedthedemocraticmythtoitslimitstheyknowconcretelyhowitlimitsthem. AtthesametimethatradicalwomenwerelearningaboutAmericansocietytheywerealsobecomingawareofthemalechauvinisminthemovement.Infactthatisusuallythecauseoftheirfirstconscious100verbalizationoftheprejudicetheyfeel;itismoredisillusioningtoknowthatthesamecontradictionexistsbetweenthemovement’srhetoricofequalityanditsrealityforweexpectmoreofourcomrades. Thisrealizationofthedeep-seatedprejudiceagainstthemselvesinthemovementproducestwocommonreactionsamongitswomen:1apreoccupationwiththisimmediatebarrierandperhapsaresultanthopelessnessand2atendencytoretreatinwardtobuythefool’sgoldofcreatingapersonallyliberatedlifestyle. Howeverourconceptofliberationrepresentsaconsciousnessthatconditionshaveforcedonuswhilemostofoursistersarechainedbyotherconditionsbiologicalandeconomicthatoverwhelmtheirhumanityanddesiresforself-fulfillment.Ourbackgroundaccountsforourignoranceaboutthestarkoppressionofwomen’sdailylives. Wecanlearnfromthesecondparagraphthat
SomeoftheconcernssurroundingTurkey’sapplicationtojointheEuropeanUniontobe1onbytheEU’sCouncilofMinistersonDecember17thareeconomic--inparticularthecountry’srelativepoverty.ItsGDPperheadislessthanathirdoftheaverageforthe15pre-2004membersoftheEU.2itisnotfaroffthatofLatvia--oneofthetennewmemberswhich3onMay1st2004anditismuchthesameas4oftwocountriesBulgariaandRomaniawhichthisweekconcluded5talkswiththeEUthatcouldmakethemfullmembersonJanuary1st2007. 6thecountry’srecenteconomicprogresshasbeenaccordingtoDonaldJohnstonthesecretary-generaloftheOECDstunning.GDPinthesecondquarteroftheyearwas13.4%higherthanayearearliera7ofgrowththatnoEUcountrycomescloseto8.Turkey’s9ratehasjustfallenintosinglefiguresforthefirsttimesince1972andthisweekthecountry10agreementwiththeIMFonanewthree-year$10billioneconomicprogramthatwillhelpTurkey11inflationtowardEuropeanlevelsandenhancetheeconomy’sresilience. Resiliencehasnothistoricallybeenthecountry’seconomicstrongpoint.12throughoutthe1990sgrowthoscillatedlikeanelectrocardiogram13aviolentheartattack.This14hasbeenoneofthemainreasonswhythecountryhasfaileddismallytoattractmuch-neededforeigndirectinvestment.Itsstockofsuchinvestmentislowernowthanitwasinthe1980sandannual15havescarcelyeverreached$1billion. Onedeterrenttoforeigninvestorsisdueto16onJanuary1st2005.OnthatdayTurkeywilltakeawaytherightofvirtuallyeveryoneofitscitizenstocallthemselvesamillionaire.Sixzeroswillberemovedfromthefacevalueofthelira里拉土耳其货币单位;oneunitofthelocal17willhenceforthbeworthwhat1millionarenow--ieabout￡0.530.53欧元.Goodswillhavetobe18inboththenewandoldliraforthewholeoftheyear19foreignbankersand20canbegintolookforwardtoatimeinTurkeywhentheywillnolongerhavetojugglementallywithindeterminatestringsofzeros. 11
Acomputermodelhasbeendevelopedthatcanpredictwhatwordyouarethinkingof.41ResearchersledbyTomMitchellofCarnegieMellonUniversityinPittsburghPennsylvania"trained"acomputermodeltorecognizethepatternsofbrainactivityassociatedwith60imageseachofwhichrepresentedadifferentnounsuchas"celery"or"aeroplane". 42.Wordssuchas"hammer"forexampleaxeknowntocausemovement-relatedareasofthebraintolightup;ontheotherhandtheword"castle"triggersactivityinregionsthatprocessspatialinformation.Mitchellandhiscolleaguesalsoknewthatdifferentnounsareassociatedmoreoftenwithsomeverbsthanwithothers--theverb"eat"forexampleismorelikelytobefoundinconjunctionwith"celery"thanwith"aeroplane".Theresearchersdesignedthemodeltotryandusethesesemanticlinkstoworkouthowthebrainwouldreacttoparticularnouns.Theyfed25suchverbsintothemodel. 43.Theresearchersthenfedthemodel58ofthe60nounstotrainit.Foreachnounthemodelsortedthroughatrillion-wordbodyoftexttofindhowitwasrelatedtothe25verbsandhowthatrelatedtotheactivationpattern.Aftertrainingthemodelswereputtothetest.Theirtaskwastopredictthepatternofactivityforthetwomissingwordsfromthegroupof60andthentodeducewhichwordwaswhich.Onaveragethemodelscameupwiththerightanswermorethanthree-quartersofthetime. Theteamthenwentonestepfurtherthistimetrainingthemodelson59ofthe60testwordsandthenshowingthemanewbrainactivitypatternandofferingthemachoiceof1001wordstomatchit.Themodelsperformedwellabovechancewhentheyweremadetorankthe1001wordsaccordingtohowwelltheymatchedthepattern.Theideaissimilartoanother"brain-reading"technique.44.Itshouldn’tbetoodifficulttogetthemodeltochooseaccuratelybetweenalargernumberofwordssaysJohn-DylanHaynes. AnaverageEnglishspeakerknows50000wordsMitchellsayssothemodelcouldintheorybeusedtoselectanywordasubjectchoosestothinkof.EvenwholesentencesmightnotbetoodistantaprospectforthemodelsaysMitchell."Nowthatwecanseeindividualwordsitgivesthescaffoldingforstartingtoseewhatthebraindoeswithmultiplewordsasitassemblesthem"hesays.45 Modelssuchasthisonecouldalsobeusefulindiagnosingdisordersoflanguageorhelpingstudentspickupaforeignlanguage.Insemanticdementiaforexamplepeoplelosetheabilitytorememberthemeaningsofthings--shownapictureofachihuahuatheycanonlyrecall"dog"forexample--butlittleisknownaboutwhatexactlygoeswronginthebrain."Wecouldlookatwhattheneuralencodingisforthis"saysMitchell. [A]TheteamthenusedfunctionalmagneticresonanceimagingFMRItoscanthebrainsof9volunteersastheylookedatimagesofthenouns [B]Thestudycanpredictwhatpictureapersonisseeingfromaselectionofmorethan100reportedbyNatureearlierthisyear [C]Themodelmayhelptoresolvequestionsabouthowthebrainprocesseswordsandlanguageandmightevenleadtotechniquesfordecodingpeople’sthoughts [D]Thisgivesresearchersthechancetounderstandthe"mentalchemistry"thatthebraindoeswhenitprocessessuchphrasesMitchellsuggests [E]Thisresearchmaybeusefulforahumancomputerinterfacebutdoesnotcapturethecomplexnetworkthatallowsarealbraintolearnandusewordsinacreativeway [F]Theteamstartedwiththeassumptionthatthebrainprocesseswordsintermsofhowtheyrelatetomovementandsensoryinformation [G]Thenewmodelisdifferentinthatithastolookatthemeaningsofthewordsratherthanjustlower-levelvisualfeaturesofapicture 43
Culturalresponsestomodernizationoftenmanifestthemselvesinthemassmedia.ForexampleAldousHuxleyinBraveNewWorldcreatedafictionalworldinwhichhecautionedreadersthatmodernscienceandtechnologyposedathreattoindividualdignity.CharlieChaplin’sfilmModernTimessetinafuturisticmanufacturingplantalsotoldthestoryofthedehumanizingimpactofmodernizationandmachinery.Writersandartistsintheircriticismsofthemodernworldoftenpointtotechnology’sabilitytoalienatepeoplefromoneanothercapitalism’stendencytofostergreedandgovernment’sinclinationtocreatebureaucraciesthatoppressratherthanhelppeople. Amongthemajorvaluesofthemodernperiodfourtypicallymanifestthemselvesintheculturalenvironment:celebratingtheindividualbelievinginrationalorderworkingefficientlyandrejectingtradition.Thesevaluesofthemodernperiodwereoriginallyembodiedintheprintingpressandlaterinnewspapersandmagazines.Theprintmediaencouragedthevisionofindividualwriterspublishersandreaderswhocirculatednewideas.Whereasthepremodernperiodwasguidedbystrongbeliefsinanaturalordivineorderbecomingmodernmeantelevatingindividualself-expressiontoacentralposition.AlongwithdemocraticbreakthroughshoweverindividualismandtheIndustrialRevolutiontriggeredmodernformsofhierarchyinwhichcertainindividualsandgroupsachievedhigherstandinginthesocialorder.Forexamplethosewhomanagedcommercialenterprisesgainedmorecontrolovertheeconomicladderwhileanintellectualclassofmodernexpertswhomasteredspecializedrealmsofknowledgegainedincreasingpoweroverthenation’ssocialpoliticalandculturalagendas. Tobemodernalsomeanttovaluethecapacityoforganizedscientificmindstosolveproblemsefficiently.Progressivethinkersmaintainedthattheprintingpressthetelegraphandtherailroadincombinationwithascientificattitudewouldfosteranewtypeofinformedsociety.Atthecoreofthissocietytheprintedmassmediaparticularlynewspaperswouldeducatethecitizenryhelpingtobuildandmaintainanorganizedsocialframework.Journalistsstroveforthepremodernidealthroughamorefact-basedandefficientapproachtoreporting.Theydiscardeddecorativewritingandchampionedaleanlook.Modernfront-pagenewsde-emphasizeddescriptioncommentaryandhistoricalcontext.TheleadsentencesthatreportedapresidentialpressconferencebegantolooksimilarwhethertheywereonthefrontpageinTupeloMississippiorWahpetonNorthDakota.JustasmodernarchitecturemademanyAmericanskylineslookalikethefrontpagesofnewspapersbegantoresembleoneanother. Finallytobemodernmeanttothrowofftherigidrulesofthepasttobreakwithtradition.Modernjournalismbecamecaptivatedbytimelyandimmediateevents.Asaresultthemorestandardizedformsoffront-pagejournalismontheonehandchampionedfactsandcurrenteventswhileefficientlymeetingdeadlines.Butontheotherhandmodernnewspapersoftenfailedtotakeahistoricalperspectiveortoanalyzesufficientlytheideasunderlyingtheseevents. Unfortunatelytheemphasisonindividualismoften
IfyouareatouristinterestedinseeingabaseballgamewhileinNewYorkyoucanFindoutwhichofitsteamsareintownsimplybysendingamessagetoAskForCents.com.Inafewminutestheanswercomesbackapparentlysuppliedbyamachinebutactuallycomposedbyahuman.Usinghumanstoprocessinformationinamachine-likewayisnotnew-itwaspioneeredbytheMechanicalTurkafamed18th-centurychess-playingmachinethatwasoperatedbyahiddenchessmaster.Butwhilecomputershavesincesurpassedthehumanbrainatchessmanytasksstillbaffleeventhemostpowerfulelectronicbrain. ForinstancecomputerscanfindyouabaseballschedulebuttheycannottellyoudirectlyiftheYankeesareintown.Norcantheytellyouwhethersittinginthebleachersisagoodideaonafirstdate.AskForCentscanbecauseitsanswerscomefrompeople."Whateverquestionyoucancomeupwiththere’sapersonthatcanprovidetheanswer--youdon’thavetheinflexibilityofanalgorithm-drivensystem"saysJesseHeitlerwhodevelopedAskForCents.Mr.HeitlerwasabletodothisthankstoanewsoftwaretooldevelopedbyAmazontheonlineretailerthatallowscomputingtaskstobefarmedouttopeopleovertheinternet.AptlyenoughAmazon’ssystemiscalledMechanicalTurk. Amazon’sTurkisparttoolkitforsoftwaredevelopersandpartonlinebazaar:anyonewithinternetaccesscanregisterasaTurkuserandstartperformingtheHumanIntelligenceTasksHITslistedontheTurkwebsitemturk.com.Companiescanbecome"requesters"bysettingupaseparateaccounttiedtoabankaccountthatwillpayoutfeesandthenpostingtheirHITs.MostHITspaybetweenonecentand$5.Sofarpeoplefrommorethan100countrieshaveperformedHITsthoughonlythosewithAmericanbankaccountscanreceivemoneyfortheirwork;othersarepaidinAmazongiftcertificates. Mr.Heitlersayshehadpreviouslytriedtobuildasimilartoolbutconcludedthattheinfrastructurewouldbedifficulttooperateprofitably.AmazonalreadyhasanextensivesoftwareinfrastructuredesignedforlinkingbuyerswithsellershoweverandtheTurksimplyextendsthatexistingmodel.LastNovemberAmazonunveiledaprototypeofthesystemwhichitcalls"artificialartificialintelligence".ThepremiseisthathumansarevastlysuperiortocomputersattaskssuchaspatternrecognitionsaysPeterCohendirectoroftheprojectatAmazonsowhynotletsoftwaretakeadvantageofhumanstrengths Mr.CohencreditsAmazon’sbossJeffBezoswiththeconceptfortheTurk.Otherpeoplehavehadsimilarideas.EricBonabeauofIcosystemanAmericanfirmthatbuildssoftwaretoolsmodeledonnaturalsystemshasbuiltwhathecallsthe"HunchEngine"tocombinehumanintelligencewithcomputeranalysis.TheFrenchpostalserviceforexamplehasusedittohelpitsworkerschoosethebestdeliveryroutesandpharmaceuticalresearchersareusingittodeterminemolecularstructuresbycombiningtheirgutinstinctswithknownresultsstoredinadatabase.AndafirmcalledSeriosityhopestotapthecollectivebrainpowerofthelegionsofobsessiveplayersofmultiplayeronlinegamessuchas"WorldofWarcraft"bygettingthemtoperformsmallreal-worldtaskssuchassortingphotographswhileplayingandpayingtheminthegame’sowncurrency. Thelastsentenceofthefirstparagraphmeans
Itistrueasthemovementcriticsassertthatthepresentwomen’sliberationgroupsarealmostentirelybasedamong"middleclass"womenthatiscollegeandcareerwomen;andtheissuesofpsychologicalandsexualexploitationandtoalesserextentexploitationthroughconsumptionhavebeenthemostprominentones. Itisnotsurprisingthatthewomen’sliberationmovementshouldbeginamongbourgeoiswomenandshouldbedominatedinthebeginningbytheirconsciousnessandtheirparticularconcerns.Radicalwomenaregenerallythepostwarmiddleclassgenerationthatgrewupwiththerighttovotethechanceathighereducationandtrainingforsupportiverolesintheprofessionsandbusiness.Mostofthemareyoungandsophisticatedenoughtohavenotyethadchildrenanddonothavetomarrytosupportthemselves.Incomparisonwithmostwomentheyarecapableofacertainamountofcontrolovertheirlives. Thehigherdevelopmentofbourgeoisdemocraticsocietyallowsthewomenwhobenefitfromeducationandrelativeequalitytoseethecontradictionsbetweenitsrhetoriceverychildcanbecomepresidentandtheiractualplaceinthatsociety.Theworkingclasswomanmightbelievethateducationcouldhavemadeherfinanciallyindependentbuttheeducatedcareerwomanfindsthatmoneyhasnotmadeherindependent.Infactbecauseshehasbeenallowedtoprogresshalfwayontheupward-mobilityladdershecanseetherestofthedistancethatisdeniedheronlybecausesheisawoman.Shecanseethesimilaritybetweenheroppressionandthatofothersectionsofthepopulation.Thusfromtheirownexperienceradicalwomeninthemovementareawareofmorefaultsinthesocietythanracismandimperialism.Becausetheyhavepushedthedemocraticmythtoitslimitstheyknowconcretelyhowitlimitsthem. AtthesametimethatradicalwomenwerelearningaboutAmericansocietytheywerealsobecomingawareofthemalechauvinisminthemovement.Infactthatisusuallythecauseoftheirfirstconscious100verbalizationoftheprejudicetheyfeel;itismoredisillusioningtoknowthatthesamecontradictionexistsbetweenthemovement’srhetoricofequalityanditsrealityforweexpectmoreofourcomrades. Thisrealizationofthedeep-seatedprejudiceagainstthemselvesinthemovementproducestwocommonreactionsamongitswomen:1apreoccupationwiththisimmediatebarrierandperhapsaresultanthopelessnessand2atendencytoretreatinwardtobuythefool’sgoldofcreatingapersonallyliberatedlifestyle. Howeverourconceptofliberationrepresentsaconsciousnessthatconditionshaveforcedonuswhilemostofoursistersarechainedbyotherconditionsbiologicalandeconomicthatoverwhelmtheirhumanityanddesiresforself-fulfillment.Ourbackgroundaccountsforourignoranceaboutthestarkoppressionofwomen’sdailylives. Accordingtothetextwhatmightalotofwomendowhentheyrealizetheprejudiceintheirmovement
MillionsofAmericansandforeignersseeGI.JoeasamindlesswartoythesymbolofAmericanmilitaryadventurismbutthat’snothowitusedtobe.Tothemenandwomenwho1inWorldWarI1andthepeopletheyliberatedtheGI.wasthe2mangrownintoherothepoolfarmkidtornawayfromhishometheguywho3alltheburdensofbattlewhosleptincoldfoxholeswhowentwithoutthe4of1hodandshelterwhostuckitoutanddrovebacktheNazireignofmurder.Thiswasnotavohmteersoldiernotsomeonewellpaid5anaverageguyup6thebesttrainedbestequippedfiercestmostbrutalenemiesseenincenturies. Hisnameisnotmuch.GI.isjustamilitaryabbreviation7GovermnentIssueanditwasonallofthearticle8tosoldiers.AndJoeAcommonnameforaguywhonever9ittothetop.JoeBlowJoeMagrae...aworkingclassname.TheUnitedStateshas10hadapresidentorvieepresidentorsecretaryofstateJoe. GI.Joehada11careerfightingGemanJapaneseandKoreantroops.Heappearsasacharacterora12ofAmericanpersonalitiesinthe1945movieTheStoryofGLJoebasedonthelastdaysofwarcorrespondentErniePyle.SomeofthesoldiersPyle13portraydethemselvesinthefihn.Pylewasfamousforcoveringthe14sideofthewarlwritingaboutthedirt-snow-and-mudsoldiersnothowmanymileswere15orwhattownswerecapturedorliberated.Hisreports16the"willie"cartoonsoffamedStarsandStripesartistBillMaulden.Bothmen17thedirtandexhaustionofwarthe18ofcivilizationthatthesoldierssharedwitheachotherandthecivilians:coffeetobaccowhiskeysheltersleep.19EgyptFranceandadozenmorecountriesG.I.JoewasanyAmericansoldier20themostimportantpersonintheirlives. 19
Culturalresponsestomodernizationoftenmanifestthemselvesinthemassmedia.ForexampleAldousHuxleyinBraveNewWorldcreatedafictionalworldinwhichhecautionedreadersthatmodernscienceandtechnologyposedathreattoindividualdignity.CharlieChaplin’sfilmModernTimessetinafuturisticmanufacturingplantalsotoldthestoryofthedehumanizingimpactofmodernizationandmachinery.Writersandartistsintheircriticismsofthemodernworldoftenpointtotechnology’sabilitytoalienatepeoplefromoneanothercapitalism’stendencytofostergreedandgovernment’sinclinationtocreatebureaucraciesthatoppressratherthanhelppeople. Amongthemajorvaluesofthemodernperiodfourtypicallymanifestthemselvesintheculturalenvironment:celebratingtheindividualbelievinginrationalorderworkingefficientlyandrejectingtradition.Thesevaluesofthemodernperiodwereoriginallyembodiedintheprintingpressandlaterinnewspapersandmagazines.Theprintmediaencouragedthevisionofindividualwriterspublishersandreaderswhocirculatednewideas.Whereasthepremodernperiodwasguidedbystrongbeliefsinanaturalordivineorderbecomingmodernmeantelevatingindividualself-expressiontoacentralposition.AlongwithdemocraticbreakthroughshoweverindividualismandtheIndustrialRevolutiontriggeredmodernformsofhierarchyinwhichcertainindividualsandgroupsachievedhigherstandinginthesocialorder.Forexamplethosewhomanagedcommercialenterprisesgainedmorecontrolovertheeconomicladderwhileanintellectualclassofmodernexpertswhomasteredspecializedrealmsofknowledgegainedincreasingpoweroverthenation’ssocialpoliticalandculturalagendas. Tobemodernalsomeanttovaluethecapacityoforganizedscientificmindstosolveproblemsefficiently.Progressivethinkersmaintainedthattheprintingpressthetelegraphandtherailroadincombinationwithascientificattitudewouldfosteranewtypeofinformedsociety.Atthecoreofthissocietytheprintedmassmediaparticularlynewspaperswouldeducatethecitizenryhelpingtobuildandmaintainanorganizedsocialframework.Journalistsstroveforthepremodernidealthroughamorefact-basedandefficientapproachtoreporting.Theydiscardeddecorativewritingandchampionedaleanlook.Modernfront-pagenewsde-emphasizeddescriptioncommentaryandhistoricalcontext.TheleadsentencesthatreportedapresidentialpressconferencebegantolooksimilarwhethertheywereonthefrontpageinTupeloMississippiorWahpetonNorthDakota.JustasmodernarchitecturemademanyAmericanskylineslookalikethefrontpagesofnewspapersbegantoresembleoneanother. Finallytobemodernmeanttothrowofftherigidrulesofthepasttobreakwithtradition.Modernjournalismbecamecaptivatedbytimelyandimmediateevents.Asaresultthemorestandardizedformsoffront-pagejournalismontheonehandchampionedfactsandcurrenteventswhileefficientlymeetingdeadlines.Butontheotherhandmodernnewspapersoftenfailedtotakeahistoricalperspectiveortoanalyzesufficientlytheideasunderlyingtheseevents. Theauthorseemstosuggestthat
Goingtotheballparkvisitingfriendsandplayingbingoaresimplediversionsformanyofus.Butfortheelderlythesesocialpastimesmayplayacriticalroleinpreservingtheirphysicalandmentalhealth. 46Infactanewstudysuggeststhatthelesstimeolderpeoplespendengagedinsocialactivitythefastertheirmotorfunctiontendstodecline."Everybodyintheir60s70sand80siswalkingmoreslowlythantheydidwhentheywere25"saysDr.AronBuchmananeurologistattheRushUniversityMedicalCenterinChicagoandleadingauthorofthestudywhichwaspublishedintheJune22ndissueoftheArchivesofInternalMedicine.47"Ourstudyshowstheconnectionbetweensocialactivityandmotorfunction--andopensupawholenewuniverseofhowwemightintervene." 48Anincreasingbodyofevidencehassuggestedthatparticipatinginmentallystimulatingactivitysocializingfrequentlyandexercisingmayhelpprotectagainstage-relateddecline-atleastcognitivedecline.Asearlyas1995neuroscientistCarlCotmanwhostudiesaginganddementiaattheUniversityofCaliforniaatIrvinepublishedapaperinNatureshowingthatphysicalexerciseproducesaproteinthathelpskeepneuronsfromdyingandspurstheformationofnewneuralconnectionsinthebrain.49MorerecentlyCotmandemonstratedinstudiesofelderlydogsandmicethatenrichingtheirsocialenvironmentisassociatedwithimprovementinbrainfunction. Researchersarealsofindingthatsocialactivitymaybelinkedtothesameprotectiveeffectinpeople.Arecentstudyof2500adultsages70to79publishedinthejournalNeurologyfoundthatthosewhowereabletostaymentallysharpwerealsothosewhoexercisedonceaweekormorehadatleastaninthgradeliteracylevelandweresociallyactive. Whilefurtherresearchneedstobedonetoestablishtheexactimpactofsocialactivityandexerciseonspecificage-relateddeclines50it’slikelythatareductioninsocialactivitymaysimplybeasymptomofphysicaldeclinesincepeoplemaynaturallywithdrawfromsocialengagementastheylosemotorskills-mostresearcherswouldagreethatitisnotunreasonabletoencourageseniorstogetouttheremore.Only10%ofpeopleover65gettherecommendedamountofexerciseatleast2.5to5hoursaweekandgiventhatseniorsalreadytendtobemoresociallyisolatedthanyoungeradultsit’sdifficulttomotivatethemtobecomemoreactive."Ifyouarealoneyouarelesslikelytofollowrecommendations"notesVerghese.ItmighthelpthoughifyouvisitGrandmamoreoftenandletherknowthataregularpastimemayjusthelpherstayfitterandsharperlonger. 49MorerecentlyCotmandemonstratedinstudiesofelderlydogsandmicethatenrichingtheirsocialenvironmentisassociatedwithimprovementinbrainfunction.
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