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肝郁脾虚者，多见（）
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下列各项病证多见面目一身俱黄色鲜明如橘皮色的是
脾虚湿蕴
阳黄
脾胃气虚
肝郁脾虚
阴黄
面色青黄多见于
肝郁脾虚
小儿惊风或惊风先兆
寒盛，疼痛
心阳暴脱，心血瘀阻
脾虚湿盛
大便完谷不化多见于
脾虚泄泻
肝郁乘脾泄泻
肾虚泄泻
食积泄泻
大便溏结不调多见于
脾虚
肾虚
脾肾阳虚
肝郁脾虚
食滞胃肠
下列何种病人多见面黄虚浮
脾虚湿蕴
肝郁脾虚
阴黄
阳黄
脾胃气虚
下列何种病人多见面黄虚浮
脾胃气虚
脾虚湿蕴
肝郁脾虚
阴黄
下列各项病证病人多见面黄虚浮的是
脾虚湿蕴
阳黄
脾胃气虚
肝郁脾虚
阴黄
大便完谷不化多见于
脾虚
伤食
阴虚
肝郁乘脾
湿热
脾虚食滞或肝郁犯胃多见
口淡
口苦
口甜
口酸
口涩
肉瘤多发而体小质地稍硬轻度触痛者证型多属于
痰火郁结
肝郁脾虚
水湿不化
肝郁痰凝
脾虚湿困
下列各项多见面目一身俱黄色鲜明如橘皮色的是
脾虚湿蕴
肝郁脾虚
脾胃气虚
阳黄
阴黄
下列哪项多见面目一身俱黄皮色鲜明如橘
脾胃气虚
脾虚湿蕴
肝郁脾虚
阳黄
阴黄
大便先干而后稀多见于
命门火衰
脾虚
肾虚
湿邪困脾
肝郁脾虚
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Muchhasbeenwrittenaboutpovertybutnoneoftheaccountsseemtogetattherootoftheproblem.Itmustbenotedthatthedebilitatingeffectsofpovertyarenotonlytheresultoflackofmoneybutarealsotheresultofpowerlessness.1Thepooraresubjecttotheirsocialsituationinsteadofbeingabletoaffectitthroughactionthatisthroughbehaviorthatflowsfromanindividual’sdecisionsandplans.Inotherwordswhensocialscientistshavereportedonthepsychologicalconsequencesofpovertyitseemsreasonabletobelievethattheyhavedescribedthepsychologicalconsequencesofpowerlessness.Thesolutiontopovertymostfrequentlysuggestedistohelpthepoorsecuremoremoneywithoutotherwisechangingthepresentpowerrelationships.Thisappearstoimplementtheideaofequalitywhileavoidinganyunnecessarythreattotheestablishedcentersofpower.Butsincetheconsequencesofpovertyarerelatedtopowerlessnessnottotheabsolutesupplyofmoneyavailabletothepoorandsincetheamountofpowerpurchasablewithagivensupplyofmoneydecreasesasasocietyacquiresalargesupplyofgoodsandservicesthesolutionofraisingtheincomesofthepoorislikelyunlessaccompaniedbyothermeasurestobeineffectiveinawealthysociety.Inordertoreducepoverty—relatedpsychologicalandsocialproblemsintheUnitedStatesthemajorcommunitywillhavetochangeitsrelationshiptoneighborhoodsofpovertyinsuchfashionthatfamiliesintheneighborhoodshaveagreaterinterestinthebroadersocietyandcanmoresuccessfullyparticipateinthedecision-makingprocessofthesurroundingcommunity.Socialactiontohelpthepoorshouldhavethefollowingcharacteristics:Firstthepoorshouldseethemselvesasthesourceoftheaction.2Secondtheactionshouldeffectinmajorwaysthepreconceptionsofinstitutionsandpersonswhodefinethepoor;theactionshoulddemandmuchineffectorskill.3Thirdtheactionshouldbesuccessfulandthesuccessfulself-originatedimportantactionshouldincreasethefeelingofpotentialworthandindividualpowerofindividualswhoarepoor.4Theonlyinitialresourcewhichacommunityshouldprovidetoneighborhoodsofpovertyshouldbeonatemporarybasisandshouldconsistoforganizerswhowillenabletheneighborhoodsquicklytocreatepowerfulindependentdemocraticorganizationsofthepoor.5Throughsuchorganizationsthepoorwillthennegotiatewiththeoutsidersforresourcesandopportunitieswithouthavingtosubmittoconcurrentcontrolfromoutside.
SeveralmonthsagoplanningtovisitafriendhospitalizedwithAIDSIaskedadoctorwhetherIshouldtakeanyprecautions.You’remoreofarisktohimthanheistoyousaidthedoctorFredValentineanassociateprofessorofmedicineatNewYorkUniversityMedicalCenter.Youmighthaveacoldorsomeminorinfectionthatwouldbeveryseriousforhimifhecaughtitbecausehehasnoresistance.Therisktomethedoctorsaidwasalmostnonexistent.1.Doctorsnowthinktheyunderstandhowitinfectscantestwhethersomeonehasbeenexposedtothevirusandknowhowtopreventitsspreadtoothers.2.AIDSisasilentepidemic.AccordingtorecentfiguresfromtheCentersforDiseaseControlCDCsince197915172peopleintheUnitedStateshavebeendiagnosedashavingAIDSand7111ofthemhavedied.Thesenumbersaredoublingevery10to12months.Another60000to120000peoplehaveAIDS-related-complexARCamilderformofthediseasewhichwillturnintoAIDSin5to20percentofthecases.3.Dr.HaroldJaffechiefepidemiologistoftheAIDStaskforceattheCDCsaysthatoverfiveyearsperhaps10percentofthepeoplecarryingtheviruswillgetAIDS.Another25percentwilldevelopARC.SinceinamajorityofcasesAIDSisfatal—atleastsofar—thedeathtollcouldbeenormous.ThoughthemedicalcommunityisoverwhelminglyconvincedthatAIDScan’tbecaughtbycausalcontactthatiswhatmostpeopleworryabout.Partoftheproblemissemantic.Doctorsaretaughtnevertosayneverbecausethere’snosuchthingas100-percentcertaintyinscience.4.ButthefactsdospeakstronglyagainsttransmissionofAIDSthroughcasualcontact.Tobeginwithnoresearcherhasfoundasinglecasecontractedthatway.OfalltheAIDScasesreportedinthepastfiveyearsnotoneresultedfromsharingaresidenceaschool-roomoranofficewithanotherAIDSpatientsaysDr.Jaffe.5.TheoreticallythereisasmallriskfromabarbershopshavewithastraightedgedrazorwhichmayproduceaminuteamountofbleedingiftherazorhasbeencontaminatedwithAIDS-carryingbloodandleftuncleaned.Asimilarsituationholdsifbleedingoccursduringamanicureandtheinstrumentsarecontaminatedandnotdisinfectedbetweencustomers.A.Forexampledentalpatientsaren’tthoughttobeatrisk.Instrumentsaresterilizedbyboilingorautoclaving—theuseofsuperheatedsteamunderpressure.EitherwouldkilltheAIDSvirusifitwerepresent.Furthermoremostdentistsusedisposableneedlesforinjections.B.AIDSacquiredimmunedeficiencysyndromewasidentifiedonlyfouryearsagoandisstillasmystifyingtothepublicasitisfrightening.Thoughagreatdealremainstobelearnedaboutthediseasethestoreofinformationisincreasingquickly.C.NorhaveanyfriendsorfamilymemberswhohavetendedAIDSvictimscomedownwiththediseaseunlesstheyhadsexualcontactwiththevictim.Motherswho’vetakencareofsonsthroughtheirterminalillnesshandlingbloodbodysecretionsvomit—noneofthemhascaughtAIDS.saysDr.Valentine.D.Because392AIDSvictimscontractedAIDSfromcontaminatedbloodgiveninatransfusionorfrombloodproductsusedtotreathemophiliamanypeopleworryaboutgivingorreceivingblood.TobeginwithitisimpossibletogetAIDSbygivingblood.Anewsterilizedneedleisusedforeachdonorandisdisposedofafterward.E.Moredisturbingisthatasmanyas1.2millionAmericansmayhaveantibodiestothevirusandamajorityofthesemaybecarryingiteventhoughtheyhavenosymptoms.Someofthemcanspreadthedisease.F.Thoughthepublic’sattentionhasbeenfocusedonfearsofcasualcontactwithAIDSvictimsmedicalauthoritiesagreethatthediseaseisnoteasytocatch.IndeedthekeytocontainingAIDSliesintwoareasofcontactthatisanythingbutcasual:sexandsharingintravenousdrugneedles.Butsexanddrugabusearethingsthatpeoplecancontrol.Researchindicatesthatworriesofthissortareunfounded.G.SoresearcherssaythingslikeThere’snoevidenceofcasualspreadofAIDS.Thepublicnotrecognizingtheunderlyingprincipleissuspiciousandtendstooverestimatetheuncertainty.
Smokingmeansinhalationandexhalationofthefumesofburningtobacco.Leavesofthetobaccoplantaresmokedinvariousways.Afteradryingandcuringprocesstheymayberolledintocigarsorshreddedforinsertionintosmokingpipes.Cigarettesthemostpopularmethodofsmokingconsistoffinelyshreddedtobaccorolledinlightweightpaper.About50millionpeopleintheUnitedStatescurrentlysmokeanestimatedtotalof570billioncigaretteseachyear.Butissmokingagoodhabit1.IncreasedriskofcancerSomeexpertsnoticedthatlungcancerwhichwasrarebeforethe20thcenturyhadincreaseddramaticallysinceabout1930TheAmericanCancerSocietyandotherorganizationsinitiatedstudiescomparingdeathsamongsmokersandnonsmokersoveraperiodofseveralyears.2.MoredeathsfromotherdiseasesSmokersalsorungreaterriskofdyingfromdiseasesapartfromcancers.3.CigarandpipesmokeasdangerousCigarandpipesmokecontainsthesametoxicandcarcinogeniccompoundsfoundincigarettesmoke.4.TheeffectofenvironmentaltobaccosmokeRecentresearchhasfocusedontheeffectsofenvironmentaltobaccosmokeETSthatistheeffectoftobaccosmokeonnonsmokerswhomustsharethesameenvironmentwithasmoker.5.AddictionatanearlyageThesmokinghabitandaddictiontonicotineusuallybeginsatanearlyage.Thishasledtoparticularconcernoversmokinginteenagersandyoungadults.Thereisnoneedtokillinnocenthumanbeings.Restrictingtobaccousemaybetheonlyanswertoahealthyworld.Tobaccoisharmfulnotonlytousbuttothepeopleinsurroundingareas.Tobaccousehasbeenpassedonfromgenerationtogeneration.Itisnowtimetoputabanonsmoking.Withthehelpofthousandsofpeoplesmokingcanbecontrolled.Nowitisthetimetostartatobaccobattle.Smokingneedstobecomeextinctworldwide.A.AreportbytheNationalCancerInstituteconcludedthatthemortalityratesfromcancerofthemouththroatlarynxpharynxandesophagusareapproximatelyequalinusersofcigarettescigarsandpipes.Ratesofcoronaryheartdiseaselungcanceremphysemaandchronicbronchitisareelevatedforcigarandpipesmokersandarecorrelatedtotheamountofsmokingandthedegreeofinhalation.B.IntheUnitedStatesmorethan70percentofadultsbegansmokingbeforetheageof18.Fromtheearlytomid-1990stheproportionofteenagesmokersintheUnitedStatesrosefromone-quartertoonethirddespiteincreasingwarningsaboutthehealthhazardsofsmokingandwidespreadbansonsmokinginpublicplaces.In2001surveysofstudentsingrades9through12foundthatmorethan38percentofmalestudentsandnearly30percentoffemalestudentssmoke.Althoughblackteenagershavethelowestsmokingratesofanyracialgroupcigarettesmokingamongblackteensincreased80percentinthelate1990s.C.Itisestimatedthatcigarettesareresponsibleforabout431000deathsintheUnitedStateseachyear.Lungcanceraccountsforabout30percentofallcancerdeathsintheUnitedStatesandsmokingaccountsfornearly90percentoflungcancerdeaths.Therisksofdyingfromlungcancerare23timeshigherformalesmokersand13timeshigherforfemalesmokersthannonsmokers.Additionallysmokersareatincreasedriskforcancerofthelarynxoralcavityesophagusbladderkidneyandpancreas.D.Researchhasshownthatmotherswhosmokegivebirthmorefrequentlytoprematureorunderweightbabiesprobablybecauseofadecreaseinbloodflowtotheplacenta.E.TheUnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEPAestimatesthatexposuretotheenvironmentthatcontainsallthetoxicagentsexhaledbyasmokercauses3000cancerdeathsandanestimated40000deathsfromheartdiseaseperyearinnonsmokers.Secondhandsmokecanaggravateasthmapneumoniabronchitisandimpairedbloodcirculation.F.Smokingcausesafivefoldincreaseintheriskofdyingfromchronicbronchitisandemphysemaandatwofoldincreaseindeathsfromdiseasesoftheheartandcoronaryarteries.Smokingalsoincreasestheriskofstrokeby50percent—40percentamongmenand60percentamongwomen.
1Despitethegeneralnegativefindingsitisimportanttorememberthatallchildrenwholivethroughadivorcedonotbehaveinthesameway.Thespecificbehaviordependsonthechild’sindividualpersonalitycharacteristicsageatthetimeofdivorceandgender.2Intermsofpersonalitywhencomparedtothoseratedasrelaxedandeasygoingchildrendescribedastemperamentalandirritablehavemoredifficultycopingwithparentaldivorceasindeedtheyhavemoredifficultyadaptingtolifechangeingeneral.Stresssuchasthatfoundindisruptedfamiliesseemstoimpairtheabilityoftemperamentalchildrentoadapttotheirsurroundingsthegreatertheamountofstressthelesswelltheyadapt.Incontrastamoderateamountofstressmayactuallyhelpaneasygoingrelaxedchildlearntocopewithadversity.Thereissomerelationshipbetweenageandchildren’scharacteristicreactiontodivorce.3Asthechildgrowsolderthegreateristhelikelihoodofafreeexpressionofavarietyofcomplexfeelingsanunderstandingofthosefeelingsandarealizationthatthedecisiontodivorcecannotbeattributedtoanyonesimplecause.Self-blamevirtuallydisappearsaftertheageof6fearofabandonmentdiminishesaftertheageof8andtheconfusionandfearoftheyoungchildisreplacedintheolderchildbyshameangerandself-reflection.Genderofthechildisalsoafactorthatpredictsthenatureofreactiontodivorce.Theimpactofdivorceisinitiallygreateronboysthanongirls.Theyaremoreaggressivelesscomplianthavegreaterdifficultiesininterpersonalrelationshipsandexhibitproblembehaviorsbothathomeandatschool.Furthermoretheadjustmentproblemsofboysarestillnoticeableeventwoyearsafterthedivorce.Girls’adjustmentproblemsareusuallyinternalizedratherthanactedoutandareoftenresolvedbythesecondyearafterthedivorce.Howevernewproblemsmaysurfaceforgirlsastheyenteradolescenceandadulthood.Howcantherelativelygreaterimpactofdivorceonboysthanongirlsbeexplained4Thegreatermaleaggressionandnoncompliancemayreflectthefactthatsuchbehaviorsaretoleratedandevenencouragedinmalesinourculturemorethantheyareinfemales.Furthermoreboysmayhaveaparticularneedforastrongmalemodelofself-controlaswellasforastrongdisciplinarianparent.5Finallyboysaremorelikelytobeexposedtotheirparents’fightsthangirlsareandafterthebreakupboysarelesslikelythangirlstoreceivesympathyandsupportfrommothersteachersorpeers.
WhataccountsfortheastoundingpopularityofDr.PhilMcGrawWhyhavesomanyTVviewersandbookbuyersembracedthistoughwarriorofapsychologistwhotellsthemtosuckitupanddealwiththeirownproblemsratherthancomplainingandblamingeveryoneelseObviouslyOprahWinfreyhasatottodowithit.Shemadehimfamouswithregularappearancesonhershowandisco-producingthenewDr.Philshowthat’slikelytobethehottestnewdaytimeofferingthisfall.ButwedecidedtoputDr.Philonthecovernotjustbecausehe’saphenomenon.1WethinkhissuccessmayreflectaninterestingshiftintheAmericanspiritoftime.Coulditbethatwe’refinallygettingtiredofthecultureofvictimologyThisisatrickysubjectbecausethereareverysadrealvictimsamongus.Menstillabusewomeninalarmingnumbers.Racismanddiscriminationpersistinsubtleandnot-so-subtleforms.2Butthesedaysalmostanyonecanfindatherapistorlawyertoassurethemthattheirprofessionalrelationshiporhealthproblemsaren’ttheirfault.AsMarcPeysertellsusinhisterrificprofileofDr.PhiltheTVsuitswereinitiallyafraidaudienceswouldbeoffendedbyhissternadvicetogetreal!Infactviewersthirstedforthetoughtalk.Privatelyweallknowwehavetotakeresponsibilityfordecisionswecontrol.Itmaynotberevolutionaryadviceandmayleaveoutimportantfactorslikeunconsciousimpulses.3Butit’sstillanimportantmessagewithclearechoingasayearlaterwecontemplatethepersonallessonsofSeptember11.Backatthelivestockfarm—theoneinCrawfordTexas—PresidentBushcontinuedtoissuemixedsignalsonIraq.4HefinallypromisedtoconsultalliesandCongressbeforegoingtowarandsignaledanattackisn’tcomingrightnowI’mapatientman.Butsofartherehasbeenlittleconsensus-buildingevenastheadministrationtalksofregimechangeandpositionstroopsinthegulf.Bush’steamalsoridiculedthepressforgivingsomuchcoveragetotheIraqissue.DefenseSecretaryRumsfeldcalleditafrenzyandPressSecretaryAriFleischerdismisseditasself-inflictedsilliness.ButasMichaelHirshnotesinourleadstorymuchofthedebatehasbeeninsidetheRepublicanParty5whereimportantvoicesofexperienceargueBushneedstopreparedomesticandworldopinionandthinkthroughtheglobalconsequencesbeforemovingforward.Withsomuchatstakethemediashouldn’tpayattentionNowwho’sbeingsilly
Inmanydevelopingcountriessoftwarepiracyhasbecomepandemic.AccordingtoSoftwarePublishersAssociation95%ofthesoftwareinPakistanispirated89%inBrazil88%inMalaysiaand82%inMexico.1HundredsoftinygizmoshopsinthemazelikestreetsofSeoul’sYongsanelectronicsmarketofferbrandnameU.S.madeprogramsforaprogramerforafractionofthelistpriceincludingLotus1-2-3for$7.50suggestedretail:$368.NewDelhi’slargestpirateoutletisabackroomoperationthatofferscustomersacatalogofnearly400titlesandfacilitiesformakingcopiesforaslittleas$4adisk$2.50forcustomerswhobringtheirownfloppies.Howtocombatthisrampantpiracy2Thepublishers’firstapproachwastocontrolitthroughtechnicalmeans—byputtingcodesintheirprogramsthatpreventedusersfromcopyingthem.Thisstrategyworkedforawhileoratleastuntildeterminedpiratesfoundwaystogetaroundit.3Butthecodesalsomadeitdifficultforlegitimateuserstocopyprogramsontotheirharddrives.Copyprotectionbecamesounpopularthatby1986mostpublishershadabandoneditastheirfirstlineofdefense.Buttheydidn’tgiveupaltogether.ThroughassociationslikeSoftwarePublishersAssociationtheybeganpickingoffpiratesoneatatimefocusingonthebiggestabusers.4SoftwarePublishersAssociationbeganrunningspotchecksandauditsonmajorcorporationssuingfordamageswhentheyfoundfirmshadboughtsayasinglecopyofaprogramandthenmadenumerousunlicensedcopiesforitsemployees.SoftwarePublishersAssociationalsoopenedahotlineonwhichanybodycanreporttheuseofillegalsoftware.Theorganizationnowgets20to30callsadaymostlyfromformerordisgruntledemployeesandcollectsmorethan$3.5millionayearinfinesandpenalties.5TheWashingtonbasedBusinessSoftwareAllianceisconductingsimilaroperationsoverseasputtingpressureonforeigngovernmentstoenforcethecopyrightlawsalreadyonthebooks.
Smokingmeansinhalationandexhalationofthefumesofburningtobacco.Leavesofthetobaccoplantaresmokedinvariousways.Afteradryingandcuringprocesstheymayberolledintocigarsorshreddedforinsertionintosmokingpipes.Cigarettesthemostpopularmethodofsmokingconsistoffinelyshreddedtobaccorolledinlightweightpaper.About50millionpeopleintheUnitedStatescurrentlysmokeanestimatedtotalof570billioncigaretteseachyear.Butissmokingagoodhabit1.IncreasedriskofcancerSomeexpertsnoticedthatlungcancerwhichwasrarebeforethe20thcenturyhadincreaseddramaticallysinceabout1930TheAmericanCancerSocietyandotherorganizationsinitiatedstudiescomparingdeathsamongsmokersandnonsmokersoveraperiodofseveralyears.2.MoredeathsfromotherdiseasesSmokersalsorungreaterriskofdyingfromdiseasesapartfromcancers.3.CigarandpipesmokeasdangerousCigarandpipesmokecontainsthesametoxicandcarcinogeniccompoundsfoundincigarettesmoke.4.TheeffectofenvironmentaltobaccosmokeRecentresearchhasfocusedontheeffectsofenvironmentaltobaccosmokeETSthatistheeffectoftobaccosmokeonnonsmokerswhomustsharethesameenvironmentwithasmoker.5.AddictionatanearlyageThesmokinghabitandaddictiontonicotineusuallybeginsatanearlyage.Thishasledtoparticularconcernoversmokinginteenagersandyoungadults.Thereisnoneedtokillinnocenthumanbeings.Restrictingtobaccousemaybetheonlyanswertoahealthyworld.Tobaccoisharmfulnotonlytousbuttothepeopleinsurroundingareas.Tobaccousehasbeenpassedonfromgenerationtogeneration.Itisnowtimetoputabanonsmoking.Withthehelpofthousandsofpeoplesmokingcanbecontrolled.Nowitisthetimetostartatobaccobattle.Smokingneedstobecomeextinctworldwide.A.AreportbytheNationalCancerInstituteconcludedthatthemortalityratesfromcancerofthemouththroatlarynxpharynxandesophagusareapproximatelyequalinusersofcigarettescigarsandpipes.Ratesofcoronaryheartdiseaselungcanceremphysemaandchronicbronchitisareelevatedforcigarandpipesmokersandarecorrelatedtotheamountofsmokingandthedegreeofinhalation.B.IntheUnitedStatesmorethan70percentofadultsbegansmokingbeforetheageof18.Fromtheearlytomid-1990stheproportionofteenagesmokersintheUnitedStatesrosefromone-quartertoonethirddespiteincreasingwarningsaboutthehealthhazardsofsmokingandwidespreadbansonsmokinginpublicplaces.In2001surveysofstudentsingrades9through12foundthatmorethan38percentofmalestudentsandnearly30percentoffemalestudentssmoke.Althoughblackteenagershavethelowestsmokingratesofanyracialgroupcigarettesmokingamongblackteensincreased80percentinthelate1990s.C.Itisestimatedthatcigarettesareresponsibleforabout431000deathsintheUnitedStateseachyear.Lungcanceraccountsforabout30percentofallcancerdeathsintheUnitedStatesandsmokingaccountsfornearly90percentoflungcancerdeaths.Therisksofdyingfromlungcancerare23timeshigherformalesmokersand13timeshigherforfemalesmokersthannonsmokers.Additionallysmokersareatincreasedriskforcancerofthelarynxoralcavityesophagusbladderkidneyandpancreas.D.Researchhasshownthatmotherswhosmokegivebirthmorefrequentlytoprematureorunderweightbabiesprobablybecauseofadecreaseinbloodflowtotheplacenta.E.TheUnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEPAestimatesthatexposuretotheenvironmentthatcontainsallthetoxicagentsexhaledbyasmokercauses3000cancerdeathsandanestimated40000deathsfromheartdiseaseperyearinnonsmokers.Secondhandsmokecanaggravateasthmapneumoniabronchitisandimpairedbloodcirculation.F.Smokingcausesafivefoldincreaseintheriskofdyingfromchronicbronchitisandemphysemaandatwofoldincreaseindeathsfromdiseasesoftheheartandcoronaryarteries.Smokingalsoincreasestheriskofstrokeby50percent—40percentamongmenand60percentamongwomen.
SeveralmonthsagoplanningtovisitafriendhospitalizedwithAIDSIaskedadoctorwhetherIshouldtakeanyprecautions.You’remoreofarisktohimthanheistoyousaidthedoctorFredValentineanassociateprofessorofmedicineatNewYorkUniversityMedicalCenter.Youmighthaveacoldorsomeminorinfectionthatwouldbeveryseriousforhimifhecaughtitbecausehehasnoresistance.Therisktomethedoctorsaidwasalmostnonexistent.1.Doctorsnowthinktheyunderstandhowitinfectscantestwhethersomeonehasbeenexposedtothevirusandknowhowtopreventitsspreadtoothers.2.AIDSisasilentepidemic.AccordingtorecentfiguresfromtheCentersforDiseaseControlCDCsince197915172peopleintheUnitedStateshavebeendiagnosedashavingAIDSand7111ofthemhavedied.Thesenumbersaredoublingevery10to12months.Another60000to120000peoplehaveAIDS-related-complexARCamilderformofthediseasewhichwillturnintoAIDSin5to20percentofthecases.3.Dr.HaroldJaffechiefepidemiologistoftheAIDStaskforceattheCDCsaysthatoverfiveyearsperhaps10percentofthepeoplecarryingtheviruswillgetAIDS.Another25percentwilldevelopARC.SinceinamajorityofcasesAIDSisfatal—atleastsofar—thedeathtollcouldbeenormous.ThoughthemedicalcommunityisoverwhelminglyconvincedthatAIDScan’tbecaughtbycausalcontactthatiswhatmostpeopleworryabout.Partoftheproblemissemantic.Doctorsaretaughtnevertosayneverbecausethere’snosuchthingas100-percentcertaintyinscience.4.ButthefactsdospeakstronglyagainsttransmissionofAIDSthroughcasualcontact.Tobeginwithnoresearcherhasfoundasinglecasecontractedthatway.OfalltheAIDScasesreportedinthepastfiveyearsnotoneresultedfromsharingaresidenceaschool-roomoranofficewithanotherAIDSpatientsaysDr.Jaffe.5.TheoreticallythereisasmallriskfromabarbershopshavewithastraightedgedrazorwhichmayproduceaminuteamountofbleedingiftherazorhasbeencontaminatedwithAIDS-carryingbloodandleftuncleaned.Asimilarsituationholdsifbleedingoccursduringamanicureandtheinstrumentsarecontaminatedandnotdisinfectedbetweencustomers.A.Forexampledentalpatientsaren’tthoughttobeatrisk.Instrumentsaresterilizedbyboilingorautoclaving—theuseofsuperheatedsteamunderpressure.EitherwouldkilltheAIDSvirusifitwerepresent.Furthermoremostdentistsusedisposableneedlesforinjections.B.AIDSacquiredimmunedeficiencysyndromewasidentifiedonlyfouryearsagoandisstillasmystifyingtothepublicasitisfrightening.Thoughagreatdealremainstobelearnedaboutthediseasethestoreofinformationisincreasingquickly.C.NorhaveanyfriendsorfamilymemberswhohavetendedAIDSvictimscomedownwiththediseaseunlesstheyhadsexualcontactwiththevictim.Motherswho’vetakencareofsonsthroughtheirterminalillnesshandlingbloodbodysecretionsvomit—noneofthemhascaughtAIDS.saysDr.Valentine.D.Because392AIDSvictimscontractedAIDSfromcontaminatedbloodgiveninatransfusionorfrombloodproductsusedtotreathemophiliamanypeopleworryaboutgivingorreceivingblood.TobeginwithitisimpossibletogetAIDSbygivingblood.Anewsterilizedneedleisusedforeachdonorandisdisposedofafterward.E.Moredisturbingisthatasmanyas1.2millionAmericansmayhaveantibodiestothevirusandamajorityofthesemaybecarryingiteventhoughtheyhavenosymptoms.Someofthemcanspreadthedisease.F.Thoughthepublic’sattentionhasbeenfocusedonfearsofcasualcontactwithAIDSvictimsmedicalauthoritiesagreethatthediseaseisnoteasytocatch.IndeedthekeytocontainingAIDSliesintwoareasofcontactthatisanythingbutcasual:sexandsharingintravenousdrugneedles.Butsexanddrugabusearethingsthatpeoplecancontrol.Researchindicatesthatworriesofthissortareunfounded.G.SoresearcherssaythingslikeThere’snoevidenceofcasualspreadofAIDS.Thepublicnotrecognizingtheunderlyingprincipleissuspiciousandtendstooverestimatetheuncertainty.
1Despitethegeneralnegativefindingsitisimportanttorememberthatallchildrenwholivethroughadivorcedonotbehaveinthesameway.Thespecificbehaviordependsonthechild’sindividualpersonalitycharacteristicsageatthetimeofdivorceandgender.2Intermsofpersonalitywhencomparedtothoseratedasrelaxedandeasygoingchildrendescribedastemperamentalandirritablehavemoredifficultycopingwithparentaldivorceasindeedtheyhavemoredifficultyadaptingtolifechangeingeneral.Stresssuchasthatfoundindisruptedfamiliesseemstoimpairtheabilityoftemperamentalchildrentoadapttotheirsurroundingsthegreatertheamountofstressthelesswelltheyadapt.Incontrastamoderateamountofstressmayactuallyhelpaneasygoingrelaxedchildlearntocopewithadversity.Thereissomerelationshipbetweenageandchildren’scharacteristicreactiontodivorce.3Asthechildgrowsolderthegreateristhelikelihoodofafreeexpressionofavarietyofcomplexfeelingsanunderstandingofthosefeelingsandarealizationthatthedecisiontodivorcecannotbeattributedtoanyonesimplecause.Self-blamevirtuallydisappearsaftertheageof6fearofabandonmentdiminishesaftertheageof8andtheconfusionandfearoftheyoungchildisreplacedintheolderchildbyshameangerandself-reflection.Genderofthechildisalsoafactorthatpredictsthenatureofreactiontodivorce.Theimpactofdivorceisinitiallygreateronboysthanongirls.Theyaremoreaggressivelesscomplianthavegreaterdifficultiesininterpersonalrelationshipsandexhibitproblembehaviorsbothathomeandatschool.Furthermoretheadjustmentproblemsofboysarestillnoticeableeventwoyearsafterthedivorce.Girls’adjustmentproblemsareusuallyinternalizedratherthanactedoutandareoftenresolvedbythesecondyearafterthedivorce.Howevernewproblemsmaysurfaceforgirlsastheyenteradolescenceandadulthood.Howcantherelativelygreaterimpactofdivorceonboysthanongirlsbeexplained4Thegreatermaleaggressionandnoncompliancemayreflectthefactthatsuchbehaviorsaretoleratedandevenencouragedinmalesinourculturemorethantheyareinfemales.Furthermoreboysmayhaveaparticularneedforastrongmalemodelofself-controlaswellasforastrongdisciplinarianparent.5Finallyboysaremorelikelytobeexposedtotheirparents’fightsthangirlsareandafterthebreakupboysarelesslikelythangirlstoreceivesympathyandsupportfrommothersteachersorpeers.
Withthepaceoftechnologicalchangemakingheadsspinwetendtothinkofourageasthemostinnovativeever.Wehavesmartphonesandsupercomputersbigdataandstem-celltransplants.Governmentsuniversitiesandfirmstogetherspendaround$1.4trillionayearonR&Dmorethaneverbefore.Yetnobodyrecentlyhascomeupwithaninventionhalfasusefulastoilet.Withitscleanlinesandintuitiveuserinterfacethehumbletoilettransformedthelivesofbillionsofpeople.1.Modemsciencehasfailedtomakeanythinglikethesameimpactandthisiswhyagrowingbandofthinkersclaimthatthepaceofinnovationhasslowed.2.Iftherateatwhichweinnovateandspreadslowsdownsotoootherthingsbeingequalwillourgrowthrate.EversinceMalthusforecastthatwewouldallstarvehumaningenuityhasprovedtheprophetsofdoomwrong.Butthesedaystheimpactofinnovationdoesindeedseemtobetailingoff.3.Productivityalsosupportsthepessimists’case:ittookoffinthemid-19thcenturyacceleratedintheearly20thcenturyandheldupprettywelluntiltheearly1970s.Itthendippedsharplytickedupinlate1990swithcomputerizationanddippedagaininthemid-2000s.Yetthatpatternisnotasconclusivelygloomyasthedoomsayersclaim.Lifeexpectancyisstillimprovingevenintherichworld.4.Moreoveritistooearlytowriteofftheinnovativeimpactofthepresentage.Thisgeneration’scontributiontotechnologicalprogressliesmostlyininformationtechnologyIT.5.Butaswithelectricitycompanieswilltaketimetolearnhowtousethemsoitwillprobablybemanydecadesbeforetheirfullimpactisfelt.ComputingpowerisalreadycontributingtodramaticadvancesfarbeyondthefieldofIT.Three-dimensionalprintingmaycauseanewindustrialrevolution.AutonomousvehicleslikethedriverlesscarsproducedbyGooglecouldbecommononstreetswithinadecade.Andalthoughitistoosoontojudgehowbigadealtheseinventionswillturnouttobeglobalizationshouldmakethisafruitfulperiodforinnovation.A.Theproductivitygainsafterelectrificationcamenotsmoothlybutinspurts;andthedrop-offsince2004probablyhasmoretodowiththeeconomiccrisisthanwithunderlyinglackofinvention.B.Economicgrowthisamodeminvention:20th-centurygrowthrateswerefarhigherthanthoseinthe19thcenturyandpre-1750growthrateswerealmostimperceptiblebymodemstandards.C.Ratheraselectrificationchangedeverythingbyallowingenergytobeusedfarfromwhereitwasgeneratedcomputingandcommunicationstechnologiestransformlivesandbusinessesbyallowingpeopletomakecalculationsandconnectionsfarbeyondtheirunaidedcapacity.D.Anditwasn’tjustmodemsanitationthatsprangfromlate-19thandearly-20th-centurybrains:theyproducedcarsplanesthetelephoneradioandantibiotics.E.Manymorebrainsareatworknowthanwere100yearsago:AmericanandEuropeaninventorshavebeenjoinedintheracetoproducecoolnewstuffbythosefrommanyothercountries.F.Ifthepessimistsarerighttheimplicationsarehuge.Economiescangenerategrowthbyaddingmorestuff:moreworkersinvestmentandeducation.Butsustainedincreasesinoutputperpersonwhicharenecessarytoraiseincomesandwelfareentailusingthestuffwealreadyhaveinbetterways—innovatinginotherwords.G.LifeexpectancyinAmericaforinstancehasrisenmoreslowlysince1980thanintheearly20thcentury.Thespeedoftravelintherichworldatleastisoftenslowernowthanitwasagenerationearlierafterrocketingacenturyorsoago.
1Thisissupposedtobeanenlightenedagebutyouwouldn’tthinksoifonlyyoucouldhearwhattheaveragemanthinksoftheaveragewoman.Womenwontheirindependenceyearsago.Afteralongbitterstruggletheynowenjoythesameeducationalopportunitiesasmeninmostpartsoftheworld.Theyhaveprovedrepeatedlythattheyareequalandoftensuperiortomeninalmosteveryfield.Thehard-foughtbattleforrecognitionhasbeenwonbutitisthroughnomeansover.2Itismennotwomenwhostillcarryonthesexwarbecausetheirattituderemainsbasicallyhostileeveninthemostprogressivesocietieswomencontinuetoberegardedassecond-ratecitizens.Tohearsomementalkyou’dthinkthatwomenbelongedtoadifferentspecies!Onthesurfacethecommentsmadethroughmenaboutwomen’sabilitiesseemlight-hearted.Thesametiredjokesaboutwomendriversarerepeateddayinanddayout.Thisapparentlightheartednessdoesnotconcealtherealcontemptthatmenfeelforwomen.Howevermuchmensneeratwomentheirclaimstosuperiorityarenotborneoutthroughstatistics.Let’sconsiderthematterofdrivingforinstance.Weallknowthatwomencausefarfeweraccidentsthanmen.Theyaretooconscientiousandresponsibletodrivelikemaniacs.Butthisisaminorquibble.Womenhavesucceededinanyjobyoucaretoname.3Aspoliticianssoldiersdoctorsfactoryhandsuniversityprofessorsfarmerscompanydirectorslawyersbus-conductorsscientistsandpresidentsofcountriestheyhaveoftenputmentoshame.Andwemustrememberthattheyfrequentlysucceedbrilliantlyinallthesefieldsinadditiontobearingandrearingchildren.Yetmengoonmaintainingthefictionthattherearemanyjobswomencannotdo.4Toplevelpoliticalnegotiationbetweencountriesbusinessandbankingarealmostentirelycontrolledthroughmenwhojealouslyguardtheirso-calledrights.EveninotherwiseenlightenedplaceslikeSwitzerlandwomenhaven’tevenbeengiventhevote.Thissituationispreposterous!Thetruthisthatmenclingtotheirsupremacybecauseoftheirbasicinferioritycomplex.Theyshunrealcompetition.Theyknowintheirheartsthatwomenaresuperiorandtheyareafraidofbeingbeatenattheirowngame.Oneofthemostimportanttasksintheworldistoachievepeacebetweenthenations.5Youcanbesurethatifonlywomenwereallowedtositroundtheconferencetabletheywouldsucceedbrilliantlyastheyalwaysdowheremenhavefailedforcenturies.
Muchhasbeenwrittenaboutpovertybutnoneoftheaccountsseemtogetattherootoftheproblem.Itmustbenotedthatthedebilitatingeffectsofpovertyarenotonlytheresultoflackofmoneybutarealsotheresultofpowerlessness.1Thepooraresubjecttotheirsocialsituationinsteadofbeingabletoaffectitthroughactionthatisthroughbehaviorthatflowsfromanindividual’sdecisionsandplans.Inotherwordswhensocialscientistshavereportedonthepsychologicalconsequencesofpovertyitseemsreasonabletobelievethattheyhavedescribedthepsychologicalconsequencesofpowerlessness.Thesolutiontopovertymostfrequentlysuggestedistohelpthepoorsecuremoremoneywithoutotherwisechangingthepresentpowerrelationships.Thisappearstoimplementtheideaofequalitywhileavoidinganyunnecessarythreattotheestablishedcentersofpower.Butsincetheconsequencesofpovertyarerelatedtopowerlessnessnottotheabsolutesupplyofmoneyavailabletothepoorandsincetheamountofpowerpurchasablewithagivensupplyofmoneydecreasesasasocietyacquiresalargesupplyofgoodsandservicesthesolutionofraisingtheincomesofthepoorislikelyunlessaccompaniedbyothermeasurestobeineffectiveinawealthysociety.Inordertoreducepoverty—relatedpsychologicalandsocialproblemsintheUnitedStatesthemajorcommunitywillhavetochangeitsrelationshiptoneighborhoodsofpovertyinsuchfashionthatfamiliesintheneighborhoodshaveagreaterinterestinthebroadersocietyandcanmoresuccessfullyparticipateinthedecision-makingprocessofthesurroundingcommunity.Socialactiontohelpthepoorshouldhavethefollowingcharacteristics:Firstthepoorshouldseethemselvesasthesourceoftheaction.2Secondtheactionshouldeffectinmajorwaysthepreconceptionsofinstitutionsandpersonswhodefinethepoor;theactionshoulddemandmuchineffectorskill.3Thirdtheactionshouldbesuccessfulandthesuccessfulself-originatedimportantactionshouldincreasethefeelingofpotentialworthandindividualpowerofindividualswhoarepoor.4Theonlyinitialresourcewhichacommunityshouldprovidetoneighborhoodsofpovertyshouldbeonatemporarybasisandshouldconsistoforganizerswhowillenabletheneighborhoodsquicklytocreatepowerfulindependentdemocraticorganizationsofthepoor.5Throughsuchorganizationsthepoorwillthennegotiatewiththeoutsidersforresourcesandopportunitieswithouthavingtosubmittoconcurrentcontrolfromoutside.
Smokingmeansinhalationandexhalationofthefumesofburningtobacco.Leavesofthetobaccoplantaresmokedinvariousways.Afteradryingandcuringprocesstheymayberolledintocigarsorshreddedforinsertionintosmokingpipes.Cigarettesthemostpopularmethodofsmokingconsistoffinelyshreddedtobaccorolledinlightweightpaper.About50millionpeopleintheUnitedStatescurrentlysmokeanestimatedtotalof570billioncigaretteseachyear.Butissmokingagoodhabit1.IncreasedriskofcancerSomeexpertsnoticedthatlungcancerwhichwasrarebeforethe20thcenturyhadincreaseddramaticallysinceabout1930TheAmericanCancerSocietyandotherorganizationsinitiatedstudiescomparingdeathsamongsmokersandnonsmokersoveraperiodofseveralyears.2.MoredeathsfromotherdiseasesSmokersalsorungreaterriskofdyingfromdiseasesapartfromcancers.3.CigarandpipesmokeasdangerousCigarandpipesmokecontainsthesametoxicandcarcinogeniccompoundsfoundincigarettesmoke.4.TheeffectofenvironmentaltobaccosmokeRecentresearchhasfocusedontheeffectsofenvironmentaltobaccosmokeETSthatistheeffectoftobaccosmokeonnonsmokerswhomustsharethesameenvironmentwithasmoker.5.AddictionatanearlyageThesmokinghabitandaddictiontonicotineusuallybeginsatanearlyage.Thishasledtoparticularconcernoversmokinginteenagersandyoungadults.Thereisnoneedtokillinnocenthumanbeings.Restrictingtobaccousemaybetheonlyanswertoahealthyworld.Tobaccoisharmfulnotonlytousbuttothepeopleinsurroundingareas.Tobaccousehasbeenpassedonfromgenerationtogeneration.Itisnowtimetoputabanonsmoking.Withthehelpofthousandsofpeoplesmokingcanbecontrolled.Nowitisthetimetostartatobaccobattle.Smokingneedstobecomeextinctworldwide.A.AreportbytheNationalCancerInstituteconcludedthatthemortalityratesfromcancerofthemouththroatlarynxpharynxandesophagusareapproximatelyequalinusersofcigarettescigarsandpipes.Ratesofcoronaryheartdiseaselungcanceremphysemaandchronicbronchitisareelevatedforcigarandpipesmokersandarecorrelatedtotheamountofsmokingandthedegreeofinhalation.B.IntheUnitedStatesmorethan70percentofadultsbegansmokingbeforetheageof18.Fromtheearlytomid-1990stheproportionofteenagesmokersintheUnitedStatesrosefromone-quartertoonethirddespiteincreasingwarningsaboutthehealthhazardsofsmokingandwidespreadbansonsmokinginpublicplaces.In2001surveysofstudentsingrades9through12foundthatmorethan38percentofmalestudentsandnearly30percentoffemalestudentssmoke.Althoughblackteenagershavethelowestsmokingratesofanyracialgroupcigarettesmokingamongblackteensincreased80percentinthelate1990s.C.Itisestimatedthatcigarettesareresponsibleforabout431000deathsintheUnitedStateseachyear.Lungcanceraccountsforabout30percentofallcancerdeathsintheUnitedStatesandsmokingaccountsfornearly90percentoflungcancerdeaths.Therisksofdyingfromlungcancerare23timeshigherformalesmokersand13timeshigherforfemalesmokersthannonsmokers.Additionallysmokersareatincreasedriskforcancerofthelarynxoralcavityesophagusbladderkidneyandpancreas.D.Researchhasshownthatmotherswhosmokegivebirthmorefrequentlytoprematureorunderweightbabiesprobablybecauseofadecreaseinbloodflowtotheplacenta.E.TheUnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEPAestimatesthatexposuretotheenvironmentthatcontainsallthetoxicagentsexhaledbyasmokercauses3000cancerdeathsandanestimated40000deathsfromheartdiseaseperyearinnonsmokers.Secondhandsmokecanaggravateasthmapneumoniabronchitisandimpairedbloodcirculation.F.Smokingcausesafivefoldincreaseintheriskofdyingfromchronicbronchitisandemphysemaandatwofoldincreaseindeathsfromdiseasesoftheheartandcoronaryarteries.Smokingalsoincreasestheriskofstrokeby50percent—40percentamongmenand60percentamongwomen.
Withthepaceoftechnologicalchangemakingheadsspinwetendtothinkofourageasthemostinnovativeever.Wehavesmartphonesandsupercomputersbigdataandstem-celltransplants.Governmentsuniversitiesandfirmstogetherspendaround$1.4trillionayearonR&Dmorethaneverbefore.Yetnobodyrecentlyhascomeupwithaninventionhalfasusefulastoilet.Withitscleanlinesandintuitiveuserinterfacethehumbletoilettransformedthelivesofbillionsofpeople.1.Modemsciencehasfailedtomakeanythinglikethesameimpactandthisiswhyagrowingbandofthinkersclaimthatthepaceofinnovationhasslowed.2.Iftherateatwhichweinnovateandspreadslowsdownsotoootherthingsbeingequalwillourgrowthrate.EversinceMalthusforecastthatwewouldallstarvehumaningenuityhasprovedtheprophetsofdoomwrong.Butthesedaystheimpactofinnovationdoesindeedseemtobetailingoff.3.Productivityalsosupportsthepessimists’case:ittookoffinthemid-19thcenturyacceleratedintheearly20thcenturyandheldupprettywelluntiltheearly1970s.Itthendippedsharplytickedupinlate1990swithcomputerizationanddippedagaininthemid-2000s.Yetthatpatternisnotasconclusivelygloomyasthedoomsayersclaim.Lifeexpectancyisstillimprovingevenintherichworld.4.Moreoveritistooearlytowriteofftheinnovativeimpactofthepresentage.Thisgeneration’scontributiontotechnologicalprogressliesmostlyininformationtechnologyIT.5.Butaswithelectricitycompanieswilltaketimetolearnhowtousethemsoitwillprobablybemanydecadesbeforetheirfullimpactisfelt.ComputingpowerisalreadycontributingtodramaticadvancesfarbeyondthefieldofIT.Three-dimensionalprintingmaycauseanewindustrialrevolution.AutonomousvehicleslikethedriverlesscarsproducedbyGooglecouldbecommononstreetswithinadecade.Andalthoughitistoosoontojudgehowbigadealtheseinventionswillturnouttobeglobalizationshouldmakethisafruitfulperiodforinnovation.A.Theproductivitygainsafterelectrificationcamenotsmoothlybutinspurts;andthedrop-offsince2004probablyhasmoretodowiththeeconomiccrisisthanwithunderlyinglackofinvention.B.Economicgrowthisamodeminvention:20th-centurygrowthrateswerefarhigherthanthoseinthe19thcenturyandpre-1750growthrateswerealmostimperceptiblebymodemstandards.C.Ratheraselectrificationchangedeverythingbyallowingenergytobeusedfarfromwhereitwasgeneratedcomputingandcommunicationstechnologiestransformlivesandbusinessesbyallowingpeopletomakecalculationsandconnectionsfarbeyondtheirunaidedcapacity.D.Anditwasn’tjustmodemsanitationthatsprangfromlate-19thandearly-20th-centurybrains:theyproducedcarsplanesthetelephoneradioandantibiotics.E.Manymorebrainsareatworknowthanwere100yearsago:AmericanandEuropeaninventorshavebeenjoinedintheracetoproducecoolnewstuffbythosefrommanyothercountries.F.Ifthepessimistsarerighttheimplicationsarehuge.Economiescangenerategrowthbyaddingmorestuff:moreworkersinvestmentandeducation.Butsustainedincreasesinoutputperpersonwhicharenecessarytoraiseincomesandwelfareentailusingthestuffwealreadyhaveinbetterways—innovatinginotherwords.G.LifeexpectancyinAmericaforinstancehasrisenmoreslowlysince1980thanintheearly20thcentury.Thespeedoftravelintherichworldatleastisoftenslowernowthanitwasagenerationearlierafterrocketingacenturyorsoago.
WhataccountsfortheastoundingpopularityofDr.PhilMcGrawWhyhavesomanyTVviewersandbookbuyersembracedthistoughwarriorofapsychologistwhotellsthemtosuckitupanddealwiththeirownproblemsratherthancomplainingandblamingeveryoneelseObviouslyOprahWinfreyhasatottodowithit.Shemadehimfamouswithregularappearancesonhershowandisco-producingthenewDr.Philshowthat’slikelytobethehottestnewdaytimeofferingthisfall.ButwedecidedtoputDr.Philonthecovernotjustbecausehe’saphenomenon.1WethinkhissuccessmayreflectaninterestingshiftintheAmericanspiritoftime.Coulditbethatwe’refinallygettingtiredofthecultureofvictimologyThisisatrickysubjectbecausethereareverysadrealvictimsamongus.Menstillabusewomeninalarmingnumbers.Racismanddiscriminationpersistinsubtleandnot-so-subtleforms.2Butthesedaysalmostanyonecanfindatherapistorlawyertoassurethemthattheirprofessionalrelationshiporhealthproblemsaren’ttheirfault.AsMarcPeysertellsusinhisterrificprofileofDr.PhiltheTVsuitswereinitiallyafraidaudienceswouldbeoffendedbyhissternadvicetogetreal!Infactviewersthirstedforthetoughtalk.Privatelyweallknowwehavetotakeresponsibilityfordecisionswecontrol.Itmaynotberevolutionaryadviceandmayleaveoutimportantfactorslikeunconsciousimpulses.3Butit’sstillanimportantmessagewithclearechoingasayearlaterwecontemplatethepersonallessonsofSeptember11.Backatthelivestockfarm—theoneinCrawfordTexas—PresidentBushcontinuedtoissuemixedsignalsonIraq.4HefinallypromisedtoconsultalliesandCongressbeforegoingtowarandsignaledanattackisn’tcomingrightnowI’mapatientman.Butsofartherehasbeenlittleconsensus-buildingevenastheadministrationtalksofregimechangeandpositionstroopsinthegulf.Bush’steamalsoridiculedthepressforgivingsomuchcoveragetotheIraqissue.DefenseSecretaryRumsfeldcalleditafrenzyandPressSecretaryAriFleischerdismisseditasself-inflictedsilliness.ButasMichaelHirshnotesinourleadstorymuchofthedebatehasbeeninsidetheRepublicanParty5whereimportantvoicesofexperienceargueBushneedstopreparedomesticandworldopinionandthinkthroughtheglobalconsequencesbeforemovingforward.Withsomuchatstakethemediashouldn’tpayattentionNowwho’sbeingsilly
Overthelastdecadedemandforthemostcommoncosmeticsurgeryprocedureslikebreastenlargementsandnosejobshasincreasedbymorethan400percent.AccordingtoDr.DaiDaviesofthePlasticSurgeryPartnershipinHammersmiththemajorityofcosmeticsurgerypatientsarenotchasingphysicalperfection.Rathertheyaredriventofantasticlengthstoimprovetheirappearancebyadesiretolooknormal.1Whatweallcraveistolooknormalandnormaliswhatisprescribedbytheadvertisingmediaandotherexternalpressures.Theygiveusaperceptionofwhatisphysicallyacceptableandwefeelwemustlooklikethat.2InAmericathedebateisnolongeraboutwhethersurgeryisnormal;ratheritcentresonwhatagepeopleshouldbebeforegoingundertheknife.NewYorksurgeonDr.GerardImberrecommendsmaintenanceworkforpeopleintheirthirties.TheideaofwaitinguntiloneneedsaheroictransformationissillyhesaysBythenyou’vewasted20greatyearsofyourlifeandallowedthingstogetoutofhand.Dr.Imberdrawsthelineatoperatingonpeoplewhoareunder18however.Itseemsthatsomeonewedon’tconsideroldenoughtoorderadrinkshouldn’tbeconsideringplasticsurgery.IntheUKcosmeticsurgeryhaslongbeenseenastheexclusivedomainoftheveryrichandfamous.3Buttheproportionatecostoftreatmenthasfallensubstantiallybringingallbutthemostadvancedlasertechnologywithinthereachofmostpeople.Dr.Davieswhoclaimstocaterfortheaveragepersonagrees.Hesays:Itreatafewoftherichandfamousandanawfullotofsecretaries.Ofcourse￡3000foranoperationisalotofmoney.Butitisalsoaninvestmentforlifewhichcostsabouthalfthepriceofagoodfamilyholiday.4Dr.Daviessuspectsthattheincreasingsophisticationofthefatinjectingandremovaltechniquesthatallowpatientstobetreatedwithalocalanaestheticinanafternoonhasalsohelpedpromotethepopularityofcosmeticsurgery.5Yetasonewomanwhorecentlypaid￡2500forliposuctiontoremovefatfromherthighsadmittedtheslopetobecomingacosmeticsurgeryVeteranisadeceptivelygentleone.Ihadmylegsdonebecausethey’dbeenbuggingmeforyears.Butgoingintotheclinicwassolowkeyandeffectiveitwhettedmyappetite.NowIdon’tthinkthere’sanyoperationthatIwouldruleouthavingifIcouldaffordit./
Overthelastdecadedemandforthemostcommoncosmeticsurgeryprocedureslikebreastenlargementsandnosejobshasincreasedbymorethan400percent.AccordingtoDr.DaiDaviesofthePlasticSurgeryPartnershipinHammersmiththemajorityofcosmeticsurgerypatientsarenotchasingphysicalperfection.Rathertheyaredriventofantasticlengthstoimprovetheirappearancebyadesiretolooknormal.1Whatweallcraveistolooknormalandnormaliswhatisprescribedbytheadvertisingmediaandotherexternalpressures.Theygiveusaperceptionofwhatisphysicallyacceptableandwefeelwemustlooklikethat.2InAmericathedebateisnolongeraboutwhethersurgeryisnormal;ratheritcentresonwhatagepeopleshouldbebeforegoingundertheknife.NewYorksurgeonDr.GerardImberrecommendsmaintenanceworkforpeopleintheirthirties.TheideaofwaitinguntiloneneedsaheroictransformationissillyhesaysBythenyou’vewasted20greatyearsofyourlifeandallowedthingstogetoutofhand.Dr.Imberdrawsthelineatoperatingonpeoplewhoareunder18however.Itseemsthatsomeonewedon’tconsideroldenoughtoorderadrinkshouldn’tbeconsideringplasticsurgery.IntheUKcosmeticsurgeryhaslongbeenseenastheexclusivedomainoftheveryrichandfamous.3Buttheproportionatecostoftreatmenthasfallensubstantiallybringingallbutthemostadvancedlasertechnologywithinthereachofmostpeople.Dr.Davieswhoclaimstocaterfortheaveragepersonagrees.Hesays:Itreatafewoftherichandfamousandanawfullotofsecretaries.Ofcourse￡3000foranoperationisalotofmoney.Butitisalsoaninvestmentforlifewhichcostsabouthalfthepriceofagoodfamilyholiday.4Dr.Daviessuspectsthattheincreasingsophisticationofthefatinjectingandremovaltechniquesthatallowpatientstobetreatedwithalocalanaestheticinanafternoonhasalsohelpedpromotethepopularityofcosmeticsurgery.5Yetasonewomanwhorecentlypaid￡2500forliposuctiontoremovefatfromherthighsadmittedtheslopetobecomingacosmeticsurgeryVeteranisadeceptivelygentleone.Ihadmylegsdonebecausethey’dbeenbuggingmeforyears.Butgoingintotheclinicwassolowkeyandeffectiveitwhettedmyappetite.NowIdon’tthinkthere’sanyoperationthatIwouldruleouthavingifIcouldaffordit./
Inmanydevelopingcountriessoftwarepiracyhasbecomepandemic.AccordingtoSoftwarePublishersAssociation95%ofthesoftwareinPakistanispirated89%inBrazil88%inMalaysiaand82%inMexico.1HundredsoftinygizmoshopsinthemazelikestreetsofSeoul’sYongsanelectronicsmarketofferbrandnameU.S.madeprogramsforaprogramerforafractionofthelistpriceincludingLotus1-2-3for$7.50suggestedretail:$368.NewDelhi’slargestpirateoutletisabackroomoperationthatofferscustomersacatalogofnearly400titlesandfacilitiesformakingcopiesforaslittleas$4adisk$2.50forcustomerswhobringtheirownfloppies.Howtocombatthisrampantpiracy2Thepublishers’firstapproachwastocontrolitthroughtechnicalmeans—byputtingcodesintheirprogramsthatpreventedusersfromcopyingthem.Thisstrategyworkedforawhileoratleastuntildeterminedpiratesfoundwaystogetaroundit.3Butthecodesalsomadeitdifficultforlegitimateuserstocopyprogramsontotheirharddrives.Copyprotectionbecamesounpopularthatby1986mostpublishershadabandoneditastheirfirstlineofdefense.Buttheydidn’tgiveupaltogether.ThroughassociationslikeSoftwarePublishersAssociationtheybeganpickingoffpiratesoneatatimefocusingonthebiggestabusers.4SoftwarePublishersAssociationbeganrunningspotchecksandauditsonmajorcorporationssuingfordamageswhentheyfoundfirmshadboughtsayasinglecopyofaprogramandthenmadenumerousunlicensedcopiesforitsemployees.SoftwarePublishersAssociationalsoopenedahotlineonwhichanybodycanreporttheuseofillegalsoftware.Theorganizationnowgets20to30callsadaymostlyfromformerordisgruntledemployeesandcollectsmorethan$3.5millionayearinfinesandpenalties.5TheWashingtonbasedBusinessSoftwareAllianceisconductingsimilaroperationsoverseasputtingpressureonforeigngovernmentstoenforcethecopyrightlawsalreadyonthebooks.
1Thisissupposedtobeanenlightenedagebutyouwouldn’tthinksoifonlyyoucouldhearwhattheaveragemanthinksoftheaveragewoman.Womenwontheirindependenceyearsago.Afteralongbitterstruggletheynowenjoythesameeducationalopportunitiesasmeninmostpartsoftheworld.Theyhaveprovedrepeatedlythattheyareequalandoftensuperiortomeninalmosteveryfield.Thehard-foughtbattleforrecognitionhasbeenwonbutitisthroughnomeansover.2Itismennotwomenwhostillcarryonthesexwarbecausetheirattituderemainsbasicallyhostileeveninthemostprogressivesocietieswomencontinuetoberegardedassecond-ratecitizens.Tohearsomementalkyou’dthinkthatwomenbelongedtoadifferentspecies!Onthesurfacethecommentsmadethroughmenaboutwomen’sabilitiesseemlight-hearted.Thesametiredjokesaboutwomendriversarerepeateddayinanddayout.Thisapparentlightheartednessdoesnotconcealtherealcontemptthatmenfeelforwomen.Howevermuchmensneeratwomentheirclaimstosuperiorityarenotborneoutthroughstatistics.Let’sconsiderthematterofdrivingforinstance.Weallknowthatwomencausefarfeweraccidentsthanmen.Theyaretooconscientiousandresponsibletodrivelikemaniacs.Butthisisaminorquibble.Womenhavesucceededinanyjobyoucaretoname.3Aspoliticianssoldiersdoctorsfactoryhandsuniversityprofessorsfarmerscompanydirectorslawyersbus-conductorsscientistsandpresidentsofcountriestheyhaveoftenputmentoshame.Andwemustrememberthattheyfrequentlysucceedbrilliantlyinallthesefieldsinadditiontobearingandrearingchildren.Yetmengoonmaintainingthefictionthattherearemanyjobswomencannotdo.4Toplevelpoliticalnegotiationbetweencountriesbusinessandbankingarealmostentirelycontrolledthroughmenwhojealouslyguardtheirso-calledrights.EveninotherwiseenlightenedplaceslikeSwitzerlandwomenhaven’tevenbeengiventhevote.Thissituationispreposterous!Thetruthisthatmenclingtotheirsupremacybecauseoftheirbasicinferioritycomplex.Theyshunrealcompetition.Theyknowintheirheartsthatwomenaresuperiorandtheyareafraidofbeingbeatenattheirowngame.Oneofthemostimportanttasksintheworldistoachievepeacebetweenthenations.5Youcanbesurethatifonlywomenwereallowedtositroundtheconferencetabletheywouldsucceedbrilliantlyastheyalwaysdowheremenhavefailedforcenturies.
It’slongbeenknownbutlittlediscussedinpolitehigh-techcirclesthatinformation-agetechnologyisnotthecleanindustryitclaimstobe.ManufacturingasinglePCcangenerate139poundsofwasteandinvolvesahostofchemicalslinkedtohighratesofcancerandbirthdefectsamongworkersandcommunities.1.DisposalCrisisofE-wasteElectronicwastee-waste—suchasobsoleteanddiscardedcomputersmonitorsprinterscellphonesandtelevisions—isoneofthefastestgrowingwastestreamsinthedevelopedworldthankstotheindustry’sphilosophyofdesignforimmediateobsolescenceandaweakelectronics-recyclinginfrastructure.2.PublicHealthProblemsIfthefullforceofthehigh-techrevolutionhitsthelandfillitshealthriskswillleavenocommunityuntouched.3.TheEuropeanSolutionTheEuropeanUnioniswayaheadoftheU.S.inrecognizingthehazardsandmovingtowardsasolution.4.HowWilltheU.S.ProceedBecausetheU.S.high-techindustryanditsfriendsinWashingtonrepresentthebiggestobstaclestotheglobalizationoftake-backlawsabroadcoalitionofenvironmentalhealthlaborandrecyclinggroupsandlocalgovernmentshasformedtheComputerTakeBackCampaigntosupportEU-stylelegislationintheU.S.5.GoingGlobalTheEuropeanapproachismorethanaminorsoftwarepatchonafundamentallyflawedprogram.Byestablishingcorporateresponsibilityforproductsattheendoftheirlivesthisstrategycouldhavewide-rangingeffectsontheinformationtechnologyindustry.TheEUapproachspreadsenvironmentalbenefitsgloballyratherthanshiftingpollutiontodevelopingnations.A.IfwecanadopttheEU’scodeintheU.S.wecandoabitofreverseengineeringonglobalization.BydownloadingEurope’sprogramtotheU.S.wecanfinallybegintocleanupthecleanindustryaroundtheglobe.B.Anestimated300to500millioncomputerswilldescendonlandfillsby2007intheU.S.alone.Three-quartersofallcomputerseversoldinthiscountryawaitdisposalingaragesandstoragefacilitiesbecausetheirownersdon’tknowwhattodowiththem.C.ThefirstEuropeanUniondirectiveone-wasteadoptedlastyearrequiresproducerstotakeresponsibilityfortheentirelifecycleoftheirproducts.By2005companieswilleitherhavetotakebackproductsdirectlyfromconsumersorfundindependentcollectorstodoso.Wastethatwasgeneratedpriortotheenactmentdatewillbetheresponsibilityofallexistingcompaniesinproportiontotheirmarketshare.Futurewasteistobetheindividualresponsibilityofeachcompanytherebycreatinganincentivetoredesignproductsforeasierandsaferrecyclinganddisposal.Noe-wastewillbeallowedinmunicipalwastestreams.D.E-wasteaccountsfor5percentofallsolidwasteinAmericabutapproximately40percentofthelead70percentoftheheavymetalsandasignificantportionoftheorganicchemicalpollutantsinAmerica’sdumps.Thise-wastecanleachintothegroundasitdidintheSiliconValley.Itwasthewidespreadcontaminationofthevalley’saquifersintheearly1980sthatinitiallypuncturedthehigh-techindustry’scleanimage.Currently;therearemoreEPAsuperfundcleanupsitesinthisvalleythananywhereelseintheU.S.Thethreattosoildrinkingwaterandpublichealthwillgrowase-wastesurgesintothewastestreamworldwide.E.HundredsoforganizationsandlocalgovernmentsintheU.S.havealreadyendorsedthecampaign’splatform.ThecampaignadvocatesthattheU.S.adoptstandardsforelectronicsmanufacturersatleastasstringentasthoseadoptedbytheEU:hazardousmaterialswouldbephasedoutandallelectronicswouldbedesignedforreuseandrecycling.Thecampaignhassparkedlegislativegroundswell.Inthepastyearalone20stateshaveintroducedlegislationtoaddresse-waste.F.Localgovernmentsandtaxpayersnowpickupthetabforthedisposalofe-waste.ThestateofCaliforniaforexamplefacesanestimated$1billionine-wastedisposalcostsoverthenextfewyears.
1Despitethegeneralnegativefindingsitisimportanttorememberthatallchildrenwholivethroughadivorcedonotbehaveinthesameway.Thespecificbehaviordependsonthechild’sindividualpersonalitycharacteristicsageatthetimeofdivorceandgender.2Intermsofpersonalitywhencomparedtothoseratedasrelaxedandeasygoingchildrendescribedastemperamentalandirritablehavemoredifficultycopingwithparentaldivorceasindeedtheyhavemoredifficultyadaptingtolifechangeingeneral.Stresssuchasthatfoundindisruptedfamiliesseemstoimpairtheabilityoftemperamentalchildrentoadapttotheirsurroundingsthegreatertheamountofstressthelesswelltheyadapt.Incontrastamoderateamountofstressmayactuallyhelpaneasygoingrelaxedchildlearntocopewithadversity.Thereissomerelationshipbetweenageandchildren’scharacteristicreactiontodivorce.3Asthechildgrowsolderthegreateristhelikelihoodofafreeexpressionofavarietyofcomplexfeelingsanunderstandingofthosefeelingsandarealizationthatthedecisiontodivorcecannotbeattributedtoanyonesimplecause.Self-blamevirtuallydisappearsaftertheageof6fearofabandonmentdiminishesaftertheageof8andtheconfusionandfearoftheyoungchildisreplacedintheolderchildbyshameangerandself-reflection.Genderofthechildisalsoafactorthatpredictsthenatureofreactiontodivorce.Theimpactofdivorceisinitiallygreateronboysthanongirls.Theyaremoreaggressivelesscomplianthavegreaterdifficultiesininterpersonalrelationshipsandexhibitproblembehaviorsbothathomeandatschool.Furthermoretheadjustmentproblemsofboysarestillnoticeableeventwoyearsafterthedivorce.Girls’adjustmentproblemsareusuallyinternalizedratherthanactedoutandareoftenresolvedbythesecondyearafterthedivorce.Howevernewproblemsmaysurfaceforgirlsastheyenteradolescenceandadulthood.Howcantherelativelygreaterimpactofdivorceonboysthanongirlsbeexplained4Thegreatermaleaggressionandnoncompliancemayreflectthefactthatsuchbehaviorsaretoleratedandevenencouragedinmalesinourculturemorethantheyareinfemales.Furthermoreboysmayhaveaparticularneedforastrongmalemodelofself-controlaswellasforastrongdisciplinarianparent.5Finallyboysaremorelikelytobeexposedtotheirparents’fightsthangirlsareandafterthebreakupboysarelesslikelythangirlstoreceivesympathyandsupportfrommothersteachersorpeers.
1Thisissupposedtobeanenlightenedagebutyouwouldn’tthinksoifonlyyoucouldhearwhattheaveragemanthinksoftheaveragewoman.Womenwontheirindependenceyearsago.Afteralongbitterstruggletheynowenjoythesameeducationalopportunitiesasmeninmostpartsoftheworld.Theyhaveprovedrepeatedlythattheyareequalandoftensuperiortomeninalmosteveryfield.Thehard-foughtbattleforrecognitionhasbeenwonbutitisthroughnomeansover.2Itismennotwomenwhostillcarryonthesexwarbecausetheirattituderemainsbasicallyhostileeveninthemostprogressivesocietieswomencontinuetoberegardedassecond-ratecitizens.Tohearsomementalkyou’dthinkthatwomenbelongedtoadifferentspecies!Onthesurfacethecommentsmadethroughmenaboutwomen’sabilitiesseemlight-hearted.Thesametiredjokesaboutwomendriversarerepeateddayinanddayout.Thisapparentlightheartednessdoesnotconcealtherealcontemptthatmenfeelforwomen.Howevermuchmensneeratwomentheirclaimstosuperiorityarenotborneoutthroughstatistics.Let’sconsiderthematterofdrivingforinstance.Weallknowthatwomencausefarfeweraccidentsthanmen.Theyaretooconscientiousandresponsibletodrivelikemaniacs.Butthisisaminorquibble.Womenhavesucceededinanyjobyoucaretoname.3Aspoliticianssoldiersdoctorsfactoryhandsuniversityprofessorsfarmerscompanydirectorslawyersbus-conductorsscientistsandpresidentsofcountriestheyhaveoftenputmentoshame.Andwemustrememberthattheyfrequentlysucceedbrilliantlyinallthesefieldsinadditiontobearingandrearingchildren.Yetmengoonmaintainingthefictionthattherearemanyjobswomencannotdo.4Toplevelpoliticalnegotiationbetweencountriesbusinessandbankingarealmostentirelycontrolledthroughmenwhojealouslyguardtheirso-calledrights.EveninotherwiseenlightenedplaceslikeSwitzerlandwomenhaven’tevenbeengiventhevote.Thissituationispreposterous!Thetruthisthatmenclingtotheirsupremacybecauseoftheirbasicinferioritycomplex.Theyshunrealcompetition.Theyknowintheirheartsthatwomenaresuperiorandtheyareafraidofbeingbeatenattheirowngame.Oneofthemostimportanttasksintheworldistoachievepeacebetweenthenations.5Youcanbesurethatifonlywomenwereallowedtositroundtheconferencetabletheywouldsucceedbrilliantlyastheyalwaysdowheremenhavefailedforcenturies.
AtthestartoftheyearTheIndependentonSundayarguedthattherewerethreeover-whelmingreasonswhyIraqshouldnotbeinvaded:therewasnoproofthatSaddamposedanimminentthreat;Iraqwouldbeevenmoretrustableasaresultofitsliberation;andaconflictwouldincreasethethreatposedbyterrorists.1WhatwedidnotknowwasthatTonyBlairhadreceivedintelligenceandadvicethatraisedtheverysamepoints.Lastweek’sreportfromtheIntelligenceandSecurityCommitteeincludedtherevelationthatsomeoftheintelligencehadwarnedthatawaragainstIraqriskedanincreasedthreatofterrorism.WhydidMr.BlairnotmakethisevidenceavailabletothepublicinthewaythatsomuchofthealarmistintelligenceonSaddam’sweaponswaspublished2WhydidhechoosetoignoretheintelligenceandargueinsteadthatthewarwasnecessarypreciselybecauseofthethreatposedbyinternationalterrorismTherehavebeentwoparliamentaryinvestigationsintothiswarandtheHuttoninquiryreopenstomorrow.3Intheirdifferentwaystheyhavebeenilluminatingbutnoneofthemhasaddressedthemainissuesrelatingtothewar.TheForeignAffairsCommitteehadthescopetorangewidelybutchosetobecomeentangledinthedisputebetweentheGovernmentandtheBBC.TheIntelligenceCommitteereachedtheconclusionthattheGovernment’sfileonSaddam’sweaponswasnotmixedupbutfailedtoexplainwhytheintelligencewassohopelesslywrong.TheHuttoninquiryisinvestigatingthedeathofDr.DavidKellyapersonaltragedyofmarginalrelevancetothewaragainstIraq.TonyBlairhasstilltocomeundercloseexaminationabouthisconductinthebuilding-uptowar.InsteadtheDefenceSecretaryGeoffHoonisbeingfingeredasifheweremaster-mindingthewarbehindeveryone’sbacksfromtheMinistryofDefence.Mr.HoonisnotaministerwhodarestothinkwithoutconsultingDowningStreetfirst.AtalltimeshewouldhavebeendancingtoDowningStreet’stunes.Mr.BlairwouldbewrongtoassumethathecandrawalineunderallofthisbymakingMr.Hoonthefall-guy.4ItwasMr.BlairwhodecidedtotakeBritaintowarandaCabinetoflargelyskepticalministersthatbackedhim.ItwasMr.BlairwhotoldMPsthatunlessSaddamwasremovedterroristswouldposeagreaterglobalthreat—eventhoughhehadreceivedintelligencethatsuggestedawarwouldleadtoanincreaseinterrorism.ParliamentshouldbetheforuminwhichthePrimeMinisteriscalledmorefullytoaccountbutlainDuncanSmith’ssupportforthewarhasneuteredanalreadyineptopposition.5IntheabsenceofproperparliamentaryscrutinyitislefttonewspaperslikethisonetokeepaskingthemostimportantquestionsuntilthePrimeMinisteranswersthem.
A.ThemainlinesthatcurrentlyserveEuropearelargelyaproductofthe19thcentury.Therailwayshavebeenindeclineformostofthe20thcentury.Fromthe1920sonwardsmotorvehiclesbeganpilferingtheshort-distancetraffic.Inthe1960stheairplanesnatchedlong-distancetravelersandmotorwayssqueezedtherailwaysstillfurther. B.TheplanswereunveiledlastmonthinBrusselsataconferenceonhigh-speedtrainshostedbytheUnionInternationaledesCheminsdeferandtheCommunityofEuropeanRailwaysagroupingthatincludesthe12CommunityrailwaysplusAustriaandSwitzerland.TheyexpandonthoseofDecember1990whichhavealreadyreceivedtheblessingoftheCommunity’stransportministers. C.Japanledthewayforwardwhenitopenedanewhigh-speedlinein1964.The"bullet"trainsbetweenTokyoandOsakawerethefirstintheworldtoaveragemorethan160kilometersperhourEuropefollowedsuit.TheFrenchhigh-speedlinebetweenParisandLyonwhichopenedintwostagesin1981and1983halvedjourneytimes.Anon-stoptrainnowtakestwohoursandthenumberofpassengerstravelingbytrainbetweenthetwocitieshastrebled.TheItalianRailwaysopeneditshigh-speedlinebetweenFlorenceandRomeduringthe1980s. D.ProgresshasbeenslowerandmorecostlyinGermanywhereGermanRailwayshasbeenplanninghigh-speedlinessince1970.Environmentaloppositiondelayedproceduresforacquiringlandwhichforcedtheauthoritiestoputlargestretchesofnewlineintotunnels.Thisinturncausedanotherproblem.Enteringatunnelathighspeedcreatespressureplusesthatcausepassengers’earstopopunpleasantly.AsaresultGermany’sintercitytrainsaresealedandpressurizedlikeaircrafttoinsulatepassengersfromthechangesinpressureoutside. E.Thescopeofthevisionisbreathtaking.AccordingtoAndresLopezprofessorofengineeringatthePolytechnicUniversityofCataloniatwiceasmanymilesofnewrailwaysarebeingplannedasmilesofmotorway.Theblueprintenvisagesthenetworkofhigh-speedlinesgrowingfromafewhundredkilometersto3000kilometersby1996and7400kilometersbytheendofthecentury.Itseesthenetworkextendingeventuallyto20000kilometerswithafurther15000kilometersofexistinglinesbeingsubstantiallyrebuiltforhighspeedsatacostof180billion. F.Neverthelessinthe1990sthepaceofopeninghasalreadybeguntoaccelerate.LastyearGermanyopeneditsfirsttwohigh-speedlinesandFranceopeneditssecondTGVline.LastmonthSpanishRailwaysbecamethefourthrailwaystojointhe250kilometersperhourclubwhenitopenedanewlinefromMadridtoSeville.Overthenextfouryearsafurthersixstretchesofhigh-speedlinewillopen:threeinFranceandoneeachinAustriaBelgiumandGermany.BritainwillfinallybelinkedtothisgrowingnetworkwhentrainsbegintorunthroughtheChannelTunnelfromLondontoBrusselsandParisalthoughdelaysindeliveringtherollingstockmakethisunlikelyuntilearlyin1994. G.FourEuropeanrailwayscurrentlyhavehigh-speedtrains.PerhapsthebestknownisFrenchRailwaysTGVwhichholdstheworldspeedrecordof515kilometersperhour.ButGermanyItalyandSpainalsohavetrainsthatarecapableofexceeding250kilometersperhourthethresholdthatdefineshighspeed.NownewplansproposeanetworknotonlylinkingcountriesintheEuropeanCommunitybutextendingacrossEasternEuropetoo. Order: 4
Withthepaceoftechnologicalchangemakingheadsspinwetendtothinkofourageasthemostinnovativeever.Wehavesmartphonesandsupercomputersbigdataandstem-celltransplants.Governmentsuniversitiesandfirmstogetherspendaround$1.4trillionayearonR&Dmorethaneverbefore.Yetnobodyrecentlyhascomeupwithaninventionhalfasusefulastoilet.Withitscleanlinesandintuitiveuserinterfacethehumbletoilettransformedthelivesofbillionsofpeople.1.Modemsciencehasfailedtomakeanythinglikethesameimpactandthisiswhyagrowingbandofthinkersclaimthatthepaceofinnovationhasslowed.2.Iftherateatwhichweinnovateandspreadslowsdownsotoootherthingsbeingequalwillourgrowthrate.EversinceMalthusforecastthatwewouldallstarvehumaningenuityhasprovedtheprophetsofdoomwrong.Butthesedaystheimpactofinnovationdoesindeedseemtobetailingoff.3.Productivityalsosupportsthepessimists’case:ittookoffinthemid-19thcenturyacceleratedintheearly20thcenturyandheldupprettywelluntiltheearly1970s.Itthendippedsharplytickedupinlate1990swithcomputerizationanddippedagaininthemid-2000s.Yetthatpatternisnotasconclusivelygloomyasthedoomsayersclaim.Lifeexpectancyisstillimprovingevenintherichworld.4.Moreoveritistooearlytowriteofftheinnovativeimpactofthepresentage.Thisgeneration’scontributiontotechnologicalprogressliesmostlyininformationtechnologyIT.5.Butaswithelectricitycompanieswilltaketimetolearnhowtousethemsoitwillprobablybemanydecadesbeforetheirfullimpactisfelt.ComputingpowerisalreadycontributingtodramaticadvancesfarbeyondthefieldofIT.Three-dimensionalprintingmaycauseanewindustrialrevolution.AutonomousvehicleslikethedriverlesscarsproducedbyGooglecouldbecommononstreetswithinadecade.Andalthoughitistoosoontojudgehowbigadealtheseinventionswillturnouttobeglobalizationshouldmakethisafruitfulperiodforinnovation.A.Theproductivitygainsafterelectrificationcamenotsmoothlybutinspurts;andthedrop-offsince2004probablyhasmoretodowiththeeconomiccrisisthanwithunderlyinglackofinvention.B.Economicgrowthisamodeminvention:20th-centurygrowthrateswerefarhigherthanthoseinthe19thcenturyandpre-1750growthrateswerealmostimperceptiblebymodemstandards.C.Ratheraselectrificationchangedeverythingbyallowingenergytobeusedfarfromwhereitwasgeneratedcomputingandcommunicationstechnologiestransformlivesandbusinessesbyallowingpeopletomakecalculationsandconnectionsfarbeyondtheirunaidedcapacity.D.Anditwasn’tjustmodemsanitationthatsprangfromlate-19thandearly-20th-centurybrains:theyproducedcarsplanesthetelephoneradioandantibiotics.E.Manymorebrainsareatworknowthanwere100yearsago:AmericanandEuropeaninventorshavebeenjoinedintheracetoproducecoolnewstuffbythosefrommanyothercountries.F.Ifthepessimistsarerighttheimplicationsarehuge.Economiescangenerategrowthbyaddingmorestuff:moreworkersinvestmentandeducation.Butsustainedincreasesinoutputperpersonwhicharenecessarytoraiseincomesandwelfareentailusingthestuffwealreadyhaveinbetterways—innovatinginotherwords.G.LifeexpectancyinAmericaforinstancehasrisenmoreslowlysince1980thanintheearly20thcentury.Thespeedoftravelintherichworldatleastisoftenslowernowthanitwasagenerationearlierafterrocketingacenturyorsoago.
A.ThemainlinesthatcurrentlyserveEuropearelargelyaproductofthe19thcentury.Therailwayshavebeenindeclineformostofthe20thcentury.Fromthe1920sonwardsmotorvehiclesbeganpilferingtheshort-distancetraffic.Inthe1960stheairplanesnatchedlong-distancetravelersandmotorwayssqueezedtherailwaysstillfurther. B.TheplanswereunveiledlastmonthinBrusselsataconferenceonhigh-speedtrainshostedbytheUnionInternationaledesCheminsdeferandtheCommunityofEuropeanRailwaysagroupingthatincludesthe12CommunityrailwaysplusAustriaandSwitzerland.TheyexpandonthoseofDecember1990whichhavealreadyreceivedtheblessingoftheCommunity’stransportministers. C.Japanledthewayforwardwhenitopenedanewhigh-speedlinein1964.The"bullet"trainsbetweenTokyoandOsakawerethefirstintheworldtoaveragemorethan160kilometersperhourEuropefollowedsuit.TheFrenchhigh-speedlinebetweenParisandLyonwhichopenedintwostagesin1981and1983halvedjourneytimes.Anon-stoptrainnowtakestwohoursandthenumberofpassengerstravelingbytrainbetweenthetwocitieshastrebled.TheItalianRailwaysopeneditshigh-speedlinebetweenFlorenceandRomeduringthe1980s. D.ProgresshasbeenslowerandmorecostlyinGermanywhereGermanRailwayshasbeenplanninghigh-speedlinessince1970.Environmentaloppositiondelayedproceduresforacquiringlandwhichforcedtheauthoritiestoputlargestretchesofnewlineintotunnels.Thisinturncausedanotherproblem.Enteringatunnelathighspeedcreatespressureplusesthatcausepassengers’earstopopunpleasantly.AsaresultGermany’sintercitytrainsaresealedandpressurizedlikeaircrafttoinsulatepassengersfromthechangesinpressureoutside. E.Thescopeofthevisionisbreathtaking.AccordingtoAndresLopezprofessorofengineeringatthePolytechnicUniversityofCataloniatwiceasmanymilesofnewrailwaysarebeingplannedasmilesofmotorway.Theblueprintenvisagesthenetworkofhigh-speedlinesgrowingfromafewhundredkilometersto3000kilometersby1996and7400kilometersbytheendofthecentury.Itseesthenetworkextendingeventuallyto20000kilometerswithafurther15000kilometersofexistinglinesbeingsubstantiallyrebuiltforhighspeedsatacostof180billion. F.Neverthelessinthe1990sthepaceofopeninghasalreadybeguntoaccelerate.LastyearGermanyopeneditsfirsttwohigh-speedlinesandFranceopeneditssecondTGVline.LastmonthSpanishRailwaysbecamethefourthrailwaystojointhe250kilometersperhourclubwhenitopenedanewlinefromMadridtoSeville.Overthenextfouryearsafurthersixstretchesofhigh-speedlinewillopen:threeinFranceandoneeachinAustriaBelgiumandGermany.BritainwillfinallybelinkedtothisgrowingnetworkwhentrainsbegintorunthroughtheChannelTunnelfromLondontoBrusselsandParisalthoughdelaysindeliveringtherollingstockmakethisunlikelyuntilearlyin1994. G.FourEuropeanrailwayscurrentlyhavehigh-speedtrains.PerhapsthebestknownisFrenchRailwaysTGVwhichholdstheworldspeedrecordof515kilometersperhour.ButGermanyItalyandSpainalsohavetrainsthatarecapableofexceeding250kilometersperhourthethresholdthatdefineshighspeed.NownewplansproposeanetworknotonlylinkingcountriesintheEuropeanCommunitybutextendingacrossEasternEuropetoo. Order: 2
AtthestartoftheyearTheIndependentonSundayarguedthattherewerethreeover-whelmingreasonswhyIraqshouldnotbeinvaded:therewasnoproofthatSaddamposedanimminentthreat;Iraqwouldbeevenmoretrustableasaresultofitsliberation;andaconflictwouldincreasethethreatposedbyterrorists.1WhatwedidnotknowwasthatTonyBlairhadreceivedintelligenceandadvicethatraisedtheverysamepoints.Lastweek’sreportfromtheIntelligenceandSecurityCommitteeincludedtherevelationthatsomeoftheintelligencehadwarnedthatawaragainstIraqriskedanincreasedthreatofterrorism.WhydidMr.BlairnotmakethisevidenceavailabletothepublicinthewaythatsomuchofthealarmistintelligenceonSaddam’sweaponswaspublished2WhydidhechoosetoignoretheintelligenceandargueinsteadthatthewarwasnecessarypreciselybecauseofthethreatposedbyinternationalterrorismTherehavebeentwoparliamentaryinvestigationsintothiswarandtheHuttoninquiryreopenstomorrow.3Intheirdifferentwaystheyhavebeenilluminatingbutnoneofthemhasaddressedthemainissuesrelatingtothewar.TheForeignAffairsCommitteehadthescopetorangewidelybutchosetobecomeentangledinthedisputebetweentheGovernmentandtheBBC.TheIntelligenceCommitteereachedtheconclusionthattheGovernment’sfileonSaddam’sweaponswasnotmixedupbutfailedtoexplainwhytheintelligencewassohopelesslywrong.TheHuttoninquiryisinvestigatingthedeathofDr.DavidKellyapersonaltragedyofmarginalrelevancetothewaragainstIraq.TonyBlairhasstilltocomeundercloseexaminationabouthisconductinthebuilding-uptowar.InsteadtheDefenceSecretaryGeoffHoonisbeingfingeredasifheweremaster-mindingthewarbehindeveryone’sbacksfromtheMinistryofDefence.Mr.HoonisnotaministerwhodarestothinkwithoutconsultingDowningStreetfirst.AtalltimeshewouldhavebeendancingtoDowningStreet’stunes.Mr.BlairwouldbewrongtoassumethathecandrawalineunderallofthisbymakingMr.Hoonthefall-guy.4ItwasMr.BlairwhodecidedtotakeBritaintowarandaCabinetoflargelyskepticalministersthatbackedhim.ItwasMr.BlairwhotoldMPsthatunlessSaddamwasremovedterroristswouldposeagreaterglobalthreat—eventhoughhehadreceivedintelligencethatsuggestedawarwouldleadtoanincreaseinterrorism.ParliamentshouldbetheforuminwhichthePrimeMinisteriscalledmorefullytoaccountbutlainDuncanSmith’ssupportforthewarhasneuteredanalreadyineptopposition.5IntheabsenceofproperparliamentaryscrutinyitislefttonewspaperslikethisonetokeepaskingthemostimportantquestionsuntilthePrimeMinisteranswersthem.
Inmanydevelopingcountriessoftwarepiracyhasbecomepandemic.AccordingtoSoftwarePublishersAssociation95%ofthesoftwareinPakistanispirated89%inBrazil88%inMalaysiaand82%inMexico.1HundredsoftinygizmoshopsinthemazelikestreetsofSeoul’sYongsanelectronicsmarketofferbrandnameU.S.madeprogramsforaprogramerforafractionofthelistpriceincludingLotus1-2-3for$7.50suggestedretail:$368.NewDelhi’slargestpirateoutletisabackroomoperationthatofferscustomersacatalogofnearly400titlesandfacilitiesformakingcopiesforaslittleas$4adisk$2.50forcustomerswhobringtheirownfloppies.Howtocombatthisrampantpiracy2Thepublishers’firstapproachwastocontrolitthroughtechnicalmeans—byputtingcodesintheirprogramsthatpreventedusersfromcopyingthem.Thisstrategyworkedforawhileoratleastuntildeterminedpiratesfoundwaystogetaroundit.3Butthecodesalsomadeitdifficultforlegitimateuserstocopyprogramsontotheirharddrives.Copyprotectionbecamesounpopularthatby1986mostpublishershadabandoneditastheirfirstlineofdefense.Buttheydidn’tgiveupaltogether.ThroughassociationslikeSoftwarePublishersAssociationtheybeganpickingoffpiratesoneatatimefocusingonthebiggestabusers.4SoftwarePublishersAssociationbeganrunningspotchecksandauditsonmajorcorporationssuingfordamageswhentheyfoundfirmshadboughtsayasinglecopyofaprogramandthenmadenumerousunlicensedcopiesforitsemployees.SoftwarePublishersAssociationalsoopenedahotlineonwhichanybodycanreporttheuseofillegalsoftware.Theorganizationnowgets20to30callsadaymostlyfromformerordisgruntledemployeesandcollectsmorethan$3.5millionayearinfinesandpenalties.5TheWashingtonbasedBusinessSoftwareAllianceisconductingsimilaroperationsoverseasputtingpressureonforeigngovernmentstoenforcethecopyrightlawsalreadyonthebooks.
It’slongbeenknownbutlittlediscussedinpolitehigh-techcirclesthatinformation-agetechnologyisnotthecleanindustryitclaimstobe.ManufacturingasinglePCcangenerate139poundsofwasteandinvolvesahostofchemicalslinkedtohighratesofcancerandbirthdefectsamongworkersandcommunities.1.DisposalCrisisofE-wasteElectronicwastee-waste—suchasobsoleteanddiscardedcomputersmonitorsprinterscellphonesandtelevisions—isoneofthefastestgrowingwastestreamsinthedevelopedworldthankstotheindustry’sphilosophyofdesignforimmediateobsolescenceandaweakelectronics-recyclinginfrastructure.2.PublicHealthProblemsIfthefullforceofthehigh-techrevolutionhitsthelandfillitshealthriskswillleavenocommunityuntouched.3.TheEuropeanSolutionTheEuropeanUnioniswayaheadoftheU.S.inrecognizingthehazardsandmovingtowardsasolution.4.HowWilltheU.S.ProceedBecausetheU.S.high-techindustryanditsfriendsinWashingtonrepresentthebiggestobstaclestotheglobalizationoftake-backlawsabroadcoalitionofenvironmentalhealthlaborandrecyclinggroupsandlocalgovernmentshasformedtheComputerTakeBackCampaigntosupportEU-stylelegislationintheU.S.5.GoingGlobalTheEuropeanapproachismorethanaminorsoftwarepatchonafundamentallyflawedprogram.Byestablishingcorporateresponsibilityforproductsattheendoftheirlivesthisstrategycouldhavewide-rangingeffectsontheinformationtechnologyindustry.TheEUapproachspreadsenvironmentalbenefitsgloballyratherthanshiftingpollutiontodevelopingnations.A.IfwecanadopttheEU’scodeintheU.S.wecandoabitofreverseengineeringonglobalization.BydownloadingEurope’sprogramtotheU.S.wecanfinallybegintocleanupthecleanindustryaroundtheglobe.B.Anestimated300to500millioncomputerswilldescendonlandfillsby2007intheU.S.alone.Three-quartersofallcomputerseversoldinthiscountryawaitdisposalingaragesandstoragefacilitiesbecausetheirownersdon’tknowwhattodowiththem.C.ThefirstEuropeanUniondirectiveone-wasteadoptedlastyearrequiresproducerstotakeresponsibilityfortheentirelifecycleoftheirproducts.By2005companieswilleitherhavetotakebackproductsdirectlyfromconsumersorfundindependentcollectorstodoso.Wastethatwasgeneratedpriortotheenactmentdatewillbetheresponsibilityofallexistingcompaniesinproportiontotheirmarketshare.Futurewasteistobetheindividualresponsibilityofeachcompanytherebycreatinganincentivetoredesignproductsforeasierandsaferrecyclinganddisposal.Noe-wastewillbeallowedinmunicipalwastestreams.D.E-wasteaccountsfor5percentofallsolidwasteinAmericabutapproximately40percentofthelead70percentoftheheavymetalsandasignificantportionoftheorganicchemicalpollutantsinAmerica’sdumps.Thise-wastecanleachintothegroundasitdidintheSiliconValley.Itwasthewidespreadcontaminationofthevalley’saquifersintheearly1980sthatinitiallypuncturedthehigh-techindustry’scleanimage.Currently;therearemoreEPAsuperfundcleanupsitesinthisvalleythananywhereelseintheU.S.Thethreattosoildrinkingwaterandpublichealthwillgrowase-wastesurgesintothewastestreamworldwide.E.HundredsoforganizationsandlocalgovernmentsintheU.S.havealreadyendorsedthecampaign’splatform.ThecampaignadvocatesthattheU.S.adoptstandardsforelectronicsmanufacturersatleastasstringentasthoseadoptedbytheEU:hazardousmaterialswouldbephasedoutandallelectronicswouldbedesignedforreuseandrecycling.Thecampaignhassparkedlegislativegroundswell.Inthepastyearalone20stateshaveintroducedlegislationtoaddresse-waste.F.Localgovernmentsandtaxpayersnowpickupthetabforthedisposalofe-waste.ThestateofCaliforniaforexamplefacesanestimated$1billionine-wastedisposalcostsoverthenextfewyears.
AtthestartoftheyearTheIndependentonSundayarguedthattherewerethreeover-whelmingreasonswhyIraqshouldnotbeinvaded:therewasnoproofthatSaddamposedanimminentthreat;Iraqwouldbeevenmoretrustableasaresultofitsliberation;andaconflictwouldincreasethethreatposedbyterrorists.1WhatwedidnotknowwasthatTonyBlairhadreceivedintelligenceandadvicethatraisedtheverysamepoints.Lastweek’sreportfromtheIntelligenceandSecurityCommitteeincludedtherevelationthatsomeoftheintelligencehadwarnedthatawaragainstIraqriskedanincreasedthreatofterrorism.WhydidMr.BlairnotmakethisevidenceavailabletothepublicinthewaythatsomuchofthealarmistintelligenceonSaddam’sweaponswaspublished2WhydidhechoosetoignoretheintelligenceandargueinsteadthatthewarwasnecessarypreciselybecauseofthethreatposedbyinternationalterrorismTherehavebeentwoparliamentaryinvestigationsintothiswarandtheHuttoninquiryreopenstomorrow.3Intheirdifferentwaystheyhavebeenilluminatingbutnoneofthemhasaddressedthemainissuesrelatingtothewar.TheForeignAffairsCommitteehadthescopetorangewidelybutchosetobecomeentangledinthedisputebetweentheGovernmentandtheBBC.TheIntelligenceCommitteereachedtheconclusionthattheGovernment’sfileonSaddam’sweaponswasnotmixedupbutfailedtoexplainwhytheintelligencewassohopelesslywrong.TheHuttoninquiryisinvestigatingthedeathofDr.DavidKellyapersonaltragedyofmarginalrelevancetothewaragainstIraq.TonyBlairhasstilltocomeundercloseexaminationabouthisconductinthebuilding-uptowar.InsteadtheDefenceSecretaryGeoffHoonisbeingfingeredasifheweremaster-mindingthewarbehindeveryone’sbacksfromtheMinistryofDefence.Mr.HoonisnotaministerwhodarestothinkwithoutconsultingDowningStreetfirst.AtalltimeshewouldhavebeendancingtoDowningStreet’stunes.Mr.BlairwouldbewrongtoassumethathecandrawalineunderallofthisbymakingMr.Hoonthefall-guy.4ItwasMr.BlairwhodecidedtotakeBritaintowarandaCabinetoflargelyskepticalministersthatbackedhim.ItwasMr.BlairwhotoldMPsthatunlessSaddamwasremovedterroristswouldposeagreaterglobalthreat—eventhoughhehadreceivedintelligencethatsuggestedawarwouldleadtoanincreaseinterrorism.ParliamentshouldbetheforuminwhichthePrimeMinisteriscalledmorefullytoaccountbutlainDuncanSmith’ssupportforthewarhasneuteredanalreadyineptopposition.5IntheabsenceofproperparliamentaryscrutinyitislefttonewspaperslikethisonetokeepaskingthemostimportantquestionsuntilthePrimeMinisteranswersthem.
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