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[A] Knight acknowledges the challenge. "We have to be beautiful as well as big. It’s no mean feat...
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最早探索创业实质涵义的是
JosephSchumpeter
P.Drucker
Cole
Knight
[A]Knightacknowledgesthechallenge.Wehavetobebea
[A]Knightacknowledgesthechallenge.Wehavetobebea
[A]Knightacknowledgesthechallenge.Wehavetobebea
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[A]Knightacknowledgesthechallenge.Wehavetobebea
[A]Knightacknowledgesthechallenge.Wehavetobebea
假定你是李华正在加拿大接受英语培训住在一户当地人家里今天主人Mr.Knight不在家你准备外出请给M
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inspects
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信息经济学的启蒙思想最早出自
奈特（Knight）
申农（Shannon）
维纳（N.Wiener）
凡勃伦（T.Veblen）
[A]Knightacknowledgesthechallenge.Wehavetobebea
第二节书面表达满分25分假定你是李华正在加拿大接受英语培训住在一户当地人家里今天主人MrKnight
OntheannualInternationalVolunteerDaytheworld______
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WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 17
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 19
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 15
Inmostpartsoftheworldclimatechangeisaworryingsubject.NotsoinCalifornia.Atarecentgatheringofgreenluminaries--inafilmstar’shousenaturallyforthatishowseriousnessisoftenestablishedinLosAngeles--thedominantnotewasself-satisfactionatwhatthestatehasalreadyachieved.AndperhapsnobodyismorecomplacentthanArnoldSchwarzenegger.UnlikeA1GoreapresidentialcandidateturnedprophetofenvironmentaldoomCalifornia’sgovernorsoundscheerfulwhentalkingaboutclimatechange.Aswellhemight:ithasmadehispoliticalcareer. AlthoughCaliforniahaslongbeenanenvironmentally-consciousstateuntilrecentlygreenswereconcernedaboveallwithsmogandredwoodtrees."CoastofDreams"KevinStarr’sauthoritativehistoryofcontemporaryCaliforniapublishedin2004doesnotmentionclimatechange.Inthatyearthoughthenewly-electedMr.Schwarzeneggermadehisfirsttentativecallforwesternstatestoseekalternativestofossilfuels.Graduallyhenoticedthathiseffortstotackleclimatechangemetwithlessresistanceandmoreacclaimthanjustaboutallhisotherpolicies.Thesedaysitcanseemasthoughheworksonnothingelse. Mr.Schwarzenegger’stransformationfromscreenwarriortoeco-warriorwascompletedlastyearwhenhesignedabillimposinglegally-enforceablelimitsongreenhouse--gasemissions--afirstforAmerica.ThanksmostlytoitslackofcoalandheavyindustryCaliforniaisarelativelycleanstate.Ifitwereacountryitwouldbetheworld’seighth-biggesteconomybutonlyits16th-biggestpolluter.Itsbigproblemistransport--meaningmostlycarsandtruckswhichaccountformorethan40%ofitsgreenhouse-gasemissionscomparedwith32%inAmericaasawhole.Thestatewantstoratchetdownemissionslimitsonnewvehiclesbeginningin2009.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasalsoorderedthatby2020vehiclefuelmustproduce10%lesscarbon:intheproductionaswellastheburningsoasimpleswitchtocorn-basedethanolisprobablyout. ThanksinparttoCalifornia’sexamplemostofthewesternstateshaveadoptedclimateactionplans.WhenitcomestosettingemissiontargetsthescenecanresembleaposedownataMr.Olympiacontest.Arizona’sclimate-changescholarsdecidedtosetatargetofcuttingthestate’semissionsto2000levelsby2020.ButJanetNapolitanothegovernorwasdeterminednottobeout-muscledbyCalifornia.ShehasdeclaredthatArizonawilltrytoreturnto2000emissionlevelsby2012. Californiahasnotjustinspiredotherstates;ithascreatedavanguardthatoughttobeabletoprodthefederalgovernmentintostrongernationalstandardsthanitwouldotherwiseconsider.ButCaliforniaisfindingiteasiertoexportitspoliciesthantoputthemintopracticeathome.InonewayCalifornia’sself-confidenceisfullyjustified.Ithasdonemorethananyotherstate--letalonethefederalgovernment--tofixAmerica’sattentiononclimatechange.Ithasalsomadeitseemasthoughtheproblemcanbesolved.Whichiswhyfailurewouldbesuchbadnews.AtthemomentCaliforniaisabeacontootherstates.Ifitfailsitwillbecomeanexcuseforinaction. AccordingtotheauthorMr.ArnoldSchwarzeneggerischeerfulchieflybecause
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 3
Forthispartyouareallowedfifteenminutestowritealetter.SupposeyouareZhangYing.WritealettertoXiaoWangaschoolmateofyourswhoisgoingtovisityouduringtheweeklongholiday.Youshouldwriteaccordingtothesuggestionsgivenbelow. 1Welcomehim; 2Givesomesuggestionsonhowhespendstheholiday; 3Somethingdetailedtobepaidattentionto.
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 11
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 13
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 41
Inmostpartsoftheworldclimatechangeisaworryingsubject.NotsoinCalifornia.Atarecentgatheringofgreenluminaries--inafilmstar’shousenaturallyforthatishowseriousnessisoftenestablishedinLosAngeles--thedominantnotewasself-satisfactionatwhatthestatehasalreadyachieved.AndperhapsnobodyismorecomplacentthanArnoldSchwarzenegger.UnlikeA1GoreapresidentialcandidateturnedprophetofenvironmentaldoomCalifornia’sgovernorsoundscheerfulwhentalkingaboutclimatechange.Aswellhemight:ithasmadehispoliticalcareer. AlthoughCaliforniahaslongbeenanenvironmentally-consciousstateuntilrecentlygreenswereconcernedaboveallwithsmogandredwoodtrees."CoastofDreams"KevinStarr’sauthoritativehistoryofcontemporaryCaliforniapublishedin2004doesnotmentionclimatechange.Inthatyearthoughthenewly-electedMr.Schwarzeneggermadehisfirsttentativecallforwesternstatestoseekalternativestofossilfuels.Graduallyhenoticedthathiseffortstotackleclimatechangemetwithlessresistanceandmoreacclaimthanjustaboutallhisotherpolicies.Thesedaysitcanseemasthoughheworksonnothingelse. Mr.Schwarzenegger’stransformationfromscreenwarriortoeco-warriorwascompletedlastyearwhenhesignedabillimposinglegally-enforceablelimitsongreenhouse--gasemissions--afirstforAmerica.ThanksmostlytoitslackofcoalandheavyindustryCaliforniaisarelativelycleanstate.Ifitwereacountryitwouldbetheworld’seighth-biggesteconomybutonlyits16th-biggestpolluter.Itsbigproblemistransport--meaningmostlycarsandtruckswhichaccountformorethan40%ofitsgreenhouse-gasemissionscomparedwith32%inAmericaasawhole.Thestatewantstoratchetdownemissionslimitsonnewvehiclesbeginningin2009.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasalsoorderedthatby2020vehiclefuelmustproduce10%lesscarbon:intheproductionaswellastheburningsoasimpleswitchtocorn-basedethanolisprobablyout. ThanksinparttoCalifornia’sexamplemostofthewesternstateshaveadoptedclimateactionplans.WhenitcomestosettingemissiontargetsthescenecanresembleaposedownataMr.Olympiacontest.Arizona’sclimate-changescholarsdecidedtosetatargetofcuttingthestate’semissionsto2000levelsby2020.ButJanetNapolitanothegovernorwasdeterminednottobeout-muscledbyCalifornia.ShehasdeclaredthatArizonawilltrytoreturnto2000emissionlevelsby2012. Californiahasnotjustinspiredotherstates;ithascreatedavanguardthatoughttobeabletoprodthefederalgovernmentintostrongernationalstandardsthanitwouldotherwiseconsider.ButCaliforniaisfindingiteasiertoexportitspoliciesthantoputthemintopracticeathome.InonewayCalifornia’sself-confidenceisfullyjustified.Ithasdonemorethananyotherstate--letalonethefederalgovernment--tofixAmerica’sattentiononclimatechange.Ithasalsomadeitseemasthoughtheproblemcanbesolved.Whichiswhyfailurewouldbesuchbadnews.AtthemomentCaliforniaisabeacontootherstates.Ifitfailsitwillbecomeanexcuseforinaction. Corn-basedethanolmightnotbechosenasanalternativebecause
[A]Extensiveapplicationsofhaptictechnology. [B]Possibilitiesrenderedbyhapticmechanisms. [C]Thefeasibilityofextendingoursensesandexploringabstractuniverses. [D]Anexampleoftheprogressinscienceofhaptics. [E]Bringingthepotentialofoursensesintofullplay. [F]Willhapticsstepintoabrightfuture "OOOF!"Usingyourmouseyouheaveadatafileacrossthescreen--acoupleofgigabytesofdataweighalot.Itsroughsurfacetellsyouthatitisagraphicsfile.Havingtippedthishugepileofdataintoahopperthatsendsittotherightprogramyouexamineascreenimageoftheforesttrailyou’llbehikingonyourvacation.Thenusingaglovedhandyoumasteritsdetailsbyrunningyourfingersoveritsforksandbendsitssharprisesandfalls.LateryousendanE-mailtoyourbelovedbendingtothedeskpadtoattachakiss. 41.__________. ThescienceofhapticsfromtheGreekhaptesthai"totouch"ismakingthesefantasiesreal.Afewprimitivedevicesareextendinghuman-machinecommunicationbeyondvisionandsound.Hapticjoysticksandsteeringwheelsforcomputergamesarealreadygivinghappyplayerssomeofthesensationsofpilotingaspaceshipdrivingaracingcarorfiringweapons.Intimehapticinterfacesmayallowustomanipulatesinglemoleculesfeelcloudsandgalaxiesevenreachintohigherdimensionstograspthesubtlestructuresofmathematics. 42.__________. Mostofoursensestirepassive.Inhearingandvisionforexamplethesoundorlightissimplyreceivedandanalyzed.Buttouchisdifferent:weactivelyexploreandalterrealitywithourhandssothesameactionthatgathersinformationcanalsochangetheworld--tomodelapieceofclayorpressabuttonforexample.Inprovidingdirectcontactbetweenpeopletouchcarriesemotionalimpact.Andinprovidingdirectcontactwiththeworlditisthesuresignofrealityasin"pinchme--amIdreaming" 43.__________. Somesmallstepshaveevenbeentakentowardswhole-bodyhaptics.TouchTechnologyofNovaScotiaCanadahasbuiltahapticchair.Itlookslikeafull-lengthloungechairinafamilydenbutitssurfaceisstuddedwith72"tactors"-pneumaticpistonrodscoveredwithroundedbuttonsthatcanextendaboutaninchandcanbedrivenundercomputercontrolinanydesiredsequenceandpattern.Itcouldbeprogrammedtoimitatearealmassageortofunctionintimetomusic.Accordingtothemanufacturerthatprovidesapowerfulblendingofsen-sations--along-termgoalofvirtualreality. 44.__________. Evenatitspresentcrudelevelhoweverhapticscanmaketangiblewhatoncecouldnotbetouchedorevenpictured.ToinvestigatetheworldoftheverysmallresearchersattheUniversityofNorthCarolinaChapelHillhavedevelopedthenanoManipulator.Thisaddstouchtothetechniqueofscanningprobemicroscopywhichcanimageasingleatombymonitoringeithertheelectricalcurrentflowingbetweenanextremelyfineprobeandasurfaceortheforcebetweenthem.WiththenanoManipulatorresearcherscanseeandmanipulateauniverseamilliontimessmallerthantheirowntostudyvirusesandtinysemiconductingdevices.Iftheforcefeedbackcanbemadesensitiveenoughitmaybepossibletopushmolecularkeysintospecificmolecularlockstocustom-designdrugsorassemblesiliconpartsintointricatenanomachines.Withotherinterfacesthereisnoreasonweshouldn’talsobeabletotouchtheverylarge-cloudsoceancurrentsmantleflowsmountainsgalaxyclusters.Ortheverystrong--withasuitableforcescalingnewceramicsoralloyscouldbesqueezedandtwangedtotesttheirengineeringproperties.Orthephysicallyextremeandinaccessible--suchasultrahotplasmaflowsinfusionmachines. 45.__________. Haptictechnologycouldevenmakeabstractideastangible.Manyscientificconceptsoccupyspacesofmorethanthreedimensionsstringtheoryfor’exampleassertsthatweliveina10or11-dimensionalUniverse.Asitisimpossibletovisualisesuchaspaceweexploretheseideas’throughmathematicalexpressionsortwodimensionalsketchesonpaper.Butprobingtheseunfamiliargeometrieswithtouchmaybemoreeffective.Andforblindpeoplehapticsoffersanewwaytograspinformationeveninthreedimensions.AgroupattheUniversityofDelawarehasdevelopedanenvironmentwhereapersoncanfeelamathematicalfunction.UsingaPHAN-TOMtheuser"walks"alongthesurfaceofthefigure.Likeahikerfollowingmountainousterraintheuserfeelswherethefunctionissteepwhereitislevelandwhereitspeaksandvalleyslie.OtherhapticsystemscouldhelpblindpeopletobrowsetheInternetfeelingimagesaswellaswords. Thefutureofhapticsisbrightbuttheonlysensualrelationshipitwillbesustaininganytimesoonisbetweenyouandyourcomputer. 41
Anawkward-lookingcharactersuchasCyranodeBergeracmightsniffatthesuggestionbutrecentscientificresearchshowsbeautybrainsandbrawnmayinfactallbealliedwritesDrRajPersaud. 46Psychologistshaveconcludedthatwemaybedrawntothestereotypicallyattractivebecauseofwhattheirfacesrevealabouttheirintelligenceandsuccessinlaterlife.InAmericanresearchledbyProfessorLeslieZebrowitzofBrandeisUniversityhasshownanassociationbetweenfacialattractiveandIQ.Strangersbrieflyexposedtoatarget’sfacewereabletocorrectlyjudgeintelligenceatlevelssignificantlybetterthanchance. Thesameteamalsoresearchedhowaperson’sattractivenessmightbearrelationtotheirintelligence.Theyfoundthatgood-lookingpeopledidbetterinIQtestsastheyaged.47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.48Perhapsbecausethemoreattractivepeopleweretreatedasmoreintelligenttheyendeduphavingmorestimulatingandthereforeintelligence-enhancinglives. DoesthismeanthatyourfacereallycouldbeyourdestinySociologistsDrUlrichMuellerandDrAllanMazuroftheUniversityofMarburginGermanyrecentlyanalyzedthefinalyearphotographsofthe1950graduatesofWestPointintheUnitedStates.Dominantfacialappearancesturnedouttobeaconsistentpredictoroflater-rankattainment: Againtheybelievedtherecouldbeaself-fulfillingeffect.49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks. AteamattheRoyalCollegeofSurgeonsinDublinhasbeeninvestigatingthesensitivesubjectoflinksbetweenphysicalandmentalabnormalities.LedbyDoctorsRobinHennessyandJohnWaddingtontheteamusedanewlasersurface-scanningtechniquetomakea3-Danalysisofhowfacialshapemightvarywithbrainstructure.Theirfindingsshowedthatinearlyfetallifebrainandfacedevelopmentareintimatelyconnected.Fromthistheyconcludedthatabnormalitiesinbrainelaborationprobablyalsoaffectfacedevelopment. ThisaccordingtothemexplainsthestrikingfacialfeaturesofsomeonewithDown’ssyndrome.50Usingsimilartechniquestheteamalsodemonstratedhowotherdisorderslinkedtobrainaberrationscouldbeassociatedwithfacialalterations. Sotheverylatestscientificresearchsuggeststhatnobodyshouldtrytolooktooobviouslydifferentfromaverage. 49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks.
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 1
There’snothingsimpleaboutguncontrolatangleoflegalpoliticalandpublic-healthissuescomplicatedbyculturalpreferencesandregionalbiases.Passionsrunhighonallsides.Lifelonghunterswho grewupwithfirearmsurbanvictimsofgunviolenceSecondAmendmentscholarsNRAlobbyistschiefsofpolice—they’veallgotcasestomakeandtheymakethemwelloftencontentiously. Forthepast15yearsmuchofthedebatehascenteredontheeffectivenessoftheBradyHandgunViolencePreventionActthefederalgun-controlbillthatwaspassedin1993.Criticssaythefocusonlaw-abidinggunbuyersdoesn’taddresstherealissue—badguyswhoacquiretheirweaponsillegally.Supporterssaythatthebillstopsthousandsofillegalgunpurchasesanddeterscrimeandviolence.Nowmedicalresearchhascometotherescuesiftingthroughthedatatofigureoutwhichlegalmeasuresworkbesttoreducefirearmsuicidesandhomicides. InapaperpublishedintheMayissueoftheAmericanJournalofPreventiveMedicineStevenSumnerathird-yearmedstudentandDr.PeterLaydecodirectoroftheInjuryResearchCenterattheMedicalCollegeofWisconsinfoundthatlocalbackgroundcheckswhichareoptionalandusedbyjustahandfulofstatesweremoreeffectivethanthefederalbackgroundchecksmandatedbytheBradylaw.Thereportcomparedthehomicideandsuicideratesinstatesthatperformonlyfederalcheckswithstatesthatdostate-levelchecksandthosethatperformlocal-levelchecks.Thelocal-levelcheckswereassociatedwitha27percentlowerfirearmsuiciderateanda22percentlowerhomiciderateamongadults21andolderthelegalagetopurchaseagun. Whyarelocalcheckssomuchbetter"Wehypothesizethatit’sduetoaccesstoadditionalinformationthat’snotavailableatthefederalchecks"saysLayde"particularlyrelatedtomental-healthissuesanddomestic-violenceissues."All50statesusetheNationalInstantCriminalBackgroundCheckSystemNICStheminimumrequiredunderBradywhile17statesalsoperformstate-levelchecksand12doadditionallocal-levelchecks. "Thisisthefirststudythat’slookedatthisissue"saysLayde."Ifthemagnitudeofimpactwefoundwereinfacttoapplytoall50statesyouwouldexpectaverysubstantialreductioninsuicidesandhomicideslinkedtofirearmsmanythousands."Howeverbackgroundcheckscanbebothanadministrativeandacostburdenforstrappedandstretchedlocalauthorities.Thereisanotherwaytogetthesameresults.improvetheflowoflocalinformationtotheNICSdatabases."Inanidealworld"saysLayde"youmightnothavetohavethelocalagenciesinvolvedifyoujustreliablygotallthedatatheyhaduptothefederallevel. InlightoftheirfindingsLaydeproposesthat
There’snothingsimpleaboutguncontrolatangleoflegalpoliticalandpublic-healthissuescomplicatedbyculturalpreferencesandregionalbiases.Passionsrunhighonallsides.Lifelonghunterswho grewupwithfirearmsurbanvictimsofgunviolenceSecondAmendmentscholarsNRAlobbyistschiefsofpolice—they’veallgotcasestomakeandtheymakethemwelloftencontentiously. Forthepast15yearsmuchofthedebatehascenteredontheeffectivenessoftheBradyHandgunViolencePreventionActthefederalgun-controlbillthatwaspassedin1993.Criticssaythefocusonlaw-abidinggunbuyersdoesn’taddresstherealissue—badguyswhoacquiretheirweaponsillegally.Supporterssaythatthebillstopsthousandsofillegalgunpurchasesanddeterscrimeandviolence.Nowmedicalresearchhascometotherescuesiftingthroughthedatatofigureoutwhichlegalmeasuresworkbesttoreducefirearmsuicidesandhomicides. InapaperpublishedintheMayissueoftheAmericanJournalofPreventiveMedicineStevenSumnerathird-yearmedstudentandDr.PeterLaydecodirectoroftheInjuryResearchCenterattheMedicalCollegeofWisconsinfoundthatlocalbackgroundcheckswhichareoptionalandusedbyjustahandfulofstatesweremoreeffectivethanthefederalbackgroundchecksmandatedbytheBradylaw.Thereportcomparedthehomicideandsuicideratesinstatesthatperformonlyfederalcheckswithstatesthatdostate-levelchecksandthosethatperformlocal-levelchecks.Thelocal-levelcheckswereassociatedwitha27percentlowerfirearmsuiciderateanda22percentlowerhomiciderateamongadults21andolderthelegalagetopurchaseagun. Whyarelocalcheckssomuchbetter"Wehypothesizethatit’sduetoaccesstoadditionalinformationthat’snotavailableatthefederalchecks"saysLayde"particularlyrelatedtomental-healthissuesanddomestic-violenceissues."All50statesusetheNationalInstantCriminalBackgroundCheckSystemNICStheminimumrequiredunderBradywhile17statesalsoperformstate-levelchecksand12doadditionallocal-levelchecks. "Thisisthefirststudythat’slookedatthisissue"saysLayde."Ifthemagnitudeofimpactwefoundwereinfacttoapplytoall50statesyouwouldexpectaverysubstantialreductioninsuicidesandhomicideslinkedtofirearmsmanythousands."Howeverbackgroundcheckscanbebothanadministrativeandacostburdenforstrappedandstretchedlocalauthorities.Thereisanotherwaytogetthesameresults.improvetheflowoflocalinformationtotheNICSdatabases."Inanidealworld"saysLayde"youmightnothavetohavethelocalagenciesinvolvedifyoujustreliablygotallthedatatheyhaduptothefederallevel. ConcerningthereductionoffirearmsuicidesandhomicidesSumnerandLayde’sstudyhasfound
CurrentGroupaGermantown-basedtechnologyfirmhastakenoveranordinarylookinghouseinBethesdaandturneditintoalaboratoryforsmart-gridtechnologythesystemthecompanybelieveswillbringthenation’selectricitygridsintothedigitalage. Inthefrontyardstandsautilitypolehookeduptoaspecialtransformerthatconnectsthepowerlinestohigh-speedInternet.Hundredsofsensorsattachedtothelinesmonitorhowpowerflowsthroughthehome.Thatinformationisthensentbacktotheutilitycompany. Theprocessletsautilitymoreefficientlymanagethedistributionofelectricitybyallowingtwo-waycommunicationbetweenconsumersandenergysuppliersviathebroadbandnetworkonthepowerlines.Basedondatatheyreceivefromhundredsofhomesutilitiescanmonitorusageandadjustoutputandpricinginresponsetodemand.Consumerscanberewardedwithreducedratesbycuttingbackonconsumptionduringpeakperiods.Andcomputerizedsubstationscantalktoeachothersooverloadedcircuitshandoffelectricitytothosethathavenotfullyloadedhelpingtopreventblackouts. Someutilitycompanieshavelaunchedinitiativestogiveconsumersdataabouttheirenergyconsumptionhabitsinanefforttolowerenergybills.Smart-gridtechnologytakessuchprogramsfurtherbyautomatingelectricitydistributionwhichwouldmakegridsmorereliableandefficient. Bypartneringwithutilitiesthecompanyhopestotapinto$4.5billioninstimulusgrantsintendedtoencouragesmart-griddevelopment.WhenheannouncedthefundingPresidentObamapointedtoaprojectinBoulderColo.asanexampleofasuccessfulsmart-gridexperiment.Currentisoneofthecompaniesworkingontheproject. Current’schiefexecutiveTomCaseybelievesthetechnologywillhelputilitycompaniesbetterdistributeelectricityproducedbyrenewableresourcessuchassolarpanelsorwindfarms."Asmartgrid’ssystemcanbepairedupwiththerenewableresourcessothatwhentherenewablesourceisvaryingtheoverallloadcanbevariedaswell"CaseytoldtheHouseSelectCommitteeonEnergyIndependenceandGlobalWarming."Thiswillreduceoreliminatetheneedforbackupcoalorgas-basedpowergenerationplants. What’sthepassagemainlyabout
CurrentGroupaGermantown-basedtechnologyfirmhastakenoveranordinarylookinghouseinBethesdaandturneditintoalaboratoryforsmart-gridtechnologythesystemthecompanybelieveswillbringthenation’selectricitygridsintothedigitalage. Inthefrontyardstandsautilitypolehookeduptoaspecialtransformerthatconnectsthepowerlinestohigh-speedInternet.Hundredsofsensorsattachedtothelinesmonitorhowpowerflowsthroughthehome.Thatinformationisthensentbacktotheutilitycompany. Theprocessletsautilitymoreefficientlymanagethedistributionofelectricitybyallowingtwo-waycommunicationbetweenconsumersandenergysuppliersviathebroadbandnetworkonthepowerlines.Basedondatatheyreceivefromhundredsofhomesutilitiescanmonitorusageandadjustoutputandpricinginresponsetodemand.Consumerscanberewardedwithreducedratesbycuttingbackonconsumptionduringpeakperiods.Andcomputerizedsubstationscantalktoeachothersooverloadedcircuitshandoffelectricitytothosethathavenotfullyloadedhelpingtopreventblackouts. Someutilitycompanieshavelaunchedinitiativestogiveconsumersdataabouttheirenergyconsumptionhabitsinanefforttolowerenergybills.Smart-gridtechnologytakessuchprogramsfurtherbyautomatingelectricitydistributionwhichwouldmakegridsmorereliableandefficient. Bypartneringwithutilitiesthecompanyhopestotapinto$4.5billioninstimulusgrantsintendedtoencouragesmart-griddevelopment.WhenheannouncedthefundingPresidentObamapointedtoaprojectinBoulderColo.asanexampleofasuccessfulsmart-gridexperiment.Currentisoneofthecompaniesworkingontheproject. Current’schiefexecutiveTomCaseybelievesthetechnologywillhelputilitycompaniesbetterdistributeelectricityproducedbyrenewableresourcessuchassolarpanelsorwindfarms."Asmartgrid’ssystemcanbepairedupwiththerenewableresourcessothatwhentherenewablesourceisvaryingtheoverallloadcanbevariedaswell"CaseytoldtheHouseSelectCommitteeonEnergyIndependenceandGlobalWarming."Thiswillreduceoreliminatetheneedforbackupcoalorgas-basedpowergenerationplants. Forsmart-gridtechnologytoworkwhichofthefollowingisamust
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 7
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 5
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 45
"We’reusingthewrongword"saysSeanDrysdaleadesperatedoctorfromaruralhospitalatHlabisainnorthernKwaZulu-Natal."Thisisn’tanepidemicit’sadisaster."ArecentUNIEFreportwhichstatesthatalmostone-thirdofSwaziland’s900000peopleareinfectedwithHIVthevirusthatcausesAIDSsupportsthisdiagnosis.HIVisspreadingfasterinsouthernAfricathananywhereelseintheworld. ButisanyonepayingattentionDespitethefactthatmostoftheworld’s33.5millionHIV/AIDScasesareinsub-SaharanAfrica—withanadditional4millioninfectedeachyear—theprioritiesatlastweek’sOrganizationofAfricanUnitysummitwereconflictresolutionandeconomiesdevelopment.Yettheepidemiccouldhaveagreatereffectoneconomicdevelopment—orratherthelackofit—thanmanypoliticianssuspect. Whilebusinessleadersaremoreconcernedaboutthe2Kmillenniumbugthanthelong-termeffectofAIDSstatisticsshowthattheworkfareinSouthAfricaforinstanceislikelytobe20%HIVpositivebynextyear.Medicalofficialsandresearcherswarnthatnotasinglecountryintheregionhasacohesivegovernmentstrategytotacklethecrisis. ThewaymanagersaddressAIDSintheworkplacewilldeterminewhethertheircompaniessurvivethefirstdecadeofthe21stcenturysaysDeaneMooreanactuaryforSouthAfrica’sMetropolitanLifeInsuranceCompany.MooreestimatesthatinSouthAfricatherewillbe580000newAIDScasesayearandalifeexpectancyofjust38by2010."We’llbebacktotheMiddleAges"saysDrysdalewhosehospitalisinoneoftheareasinSouthAfricawiththehighestratesofHIVinfection."Thegraphisheadingtowardthevertical.Andyetpeoplearestillnottakingitseriously." MostsouthernAfricancountriesaresimplytoopoortosupplymorethanbasichealthservicesletalonemedicinestoconfrontthecrisis.PatientsinsomegovernmenthospitalsinHararehavetosupplytheirownbeddingfooddrugsandinsomecaseseventheirownnurses.Zimbabwe’sfraildomesticeconomydependstoalargeextentoninformalenterprisesandsmallbusinessesmanyofwhicharegoingbankruptasAIDStakesitstollonownersandemployees."Therippleeffectisdevastating"saysHarareAIDSresearcherReneLoewenson. MoreominousaretheimplicationsforSouthAfricawithasophisticatedindustrialinfrastructureaswellasawidespreadinformalsector.WhiletheSouthAfricangovernmentisactiveinpromotingAIDSeducationithasn’tthemoneymanpowerormaterialtocopewiththeattackofAIDS. WhatcanwelearnfromParagraph2andParagraph3
CurrentGroupaGermantown-basedtechnologyfirmhastakenoveranordinarylookinghouseinBethesdaandturneditintoalaboratoryforsmart-gridtechnologythesystemthecompanybelieveswillbringthenation’selectricitygridsintothedigitalage. Inthefrontyardstandsautilitypolehookeduptoaspecialtransformerthatconnectsthepowerlinestohigh-speedInternet.Hundredsofsensorsattachedtothelinesmonitorhowpowerflowsthroughthehome.Thatinformationisthensentbacktotheutilitycompany. Theprocessletsautilitymoreefficientlymanagethedistributionofelectricitybyallowingtwo-waycommunicationbetweenconsumersandenergysuppliersviathebroadbandnetworkonthepowerlines.Basedondatatheyreceivefromhundredsofhomesutilitiescanmonitorusageandadjustoutputandpricinginresponsetodemand.Consumerscanberewardedwithreducedratesbycuttingbackonconsumptionduringpeakperiods.Andcomputerizedsubstationscantalktoeachothersooverloadedcircuitshandoffelectricitytothosethathavenotfullyloadedhelpingtopreventblackouts. Someutilitycompanieshavelaunchedinitiativestogiveconsumersdataabouttheirenergyconsumptionhabitsinanefforttolowerenergybills.Smart-gridtechnologytakessuchprogramsfurtherbyautomatingelectricitydistributionwhichwouldmakegridsmorereliableandefficient. Bypartneringwithutilitiesthecompanyhopestotapinto$4.5billioninstimulusgrantsintendedtoencouragesmart-griddevelopment.WhenheannouncedthefundingPresidentObamapointedtoaprojectinBoulderColo.asanexampleofasuccessfulsmart-gridexperiment.Currentisoneofthecompaniesworkingontheproject. Current’schiefexecutiveTomCaseybelievesthetechnologywillhelputilitycompaniesbetterdistributeelectricityproducedbyrenewableresourcessuchassolarpanelsorwindfarms."Asmartgrid’ssystemcanbepairedupwiththerenewableresourcessothatwhentherenewablesourceisvaryingtheoverallloadcanbevariedaswell"CaseytoldtheHouseSelectCommitteeonEnergyIndependenceandGlobalWarming."Thiswillreduceoreliminatetheneedforbackupcoalorgas-basedpowergenerationplants. Whyisthesystemcalledsmart-gridtechnology
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 9
Whenthereisbloodinthewateritisonlynaturalthatdorsalfinsswirlaroundexcitedly.NowthatAmerica’shousingmarketisailingpredatorshavetheirsightsonthecountry’scredit-cardmarket.AnalystsatGoldmanSachsreckonthatcredit-cardlossescouldreach$99billionifcontagionspreadsfromsubprimemortgagestootherformsofconsumercredit.Signsofstrainareclearlyvisible.Therearerisesinboththecharge-offanddelinquencyrateswhichmeasuretheshareofbalancesthatareuncollectableormorethan30dayslaterespectively.HSBCannouncedlastmonththatithadtakena$1.4billionchargeinitsAmericanconsumer-financebusinesspartlybecauseofweaknessamongcardborrowers. Itistooearlytopanicthough.Charge-offsanddelinquenciesarestilllow.AccordingtoMoody’saratingagencythethird-quarterdelinquencyrateof3.89%wasalmostafullpercentagepointbelowthehistoricalaverage.Thedeteriorationinratescanbepartlyexplainedbytechnicalfactors.AchangeinAmerica’spersonal-bankruptcylawsin2005ledtoanabruptfallinbankruptcyfilingswhichinturnaccountforabigchunkofcredit-cardlosses;thenumberoffilingsandthuscharge-offrateswouldberisingagainwhetherornotoverallconditionsforborrowersweregettingworse. Theindustryalsoreportssolidpaymentrateswhichshowhowmuchoftheirdebtconsumerspayoffeachmonth.Andconfidenceincredit-cardasset-backedsecuritiesisprettyfirmdespiteparalysisinothercornersofstructuredfinance.DennisMoroneyofTowerGrouparesearchfirmpredictsthatissuancevolumesfor2007willendupbeing25%higherthanlastyear. Directchannelsofinfectionbetweenthesubprime-mortgagecrisisandthecredit-cardmarketcertainlyexist:consumersarelikeliertoloaduponcredit-carddebtnowthathome-equityloansaredryingup.Butcardissuerslookatcashflowratherthanassetvaluessofallinghousepricesdonotnecessarilytriggerachangeinborrowers’creditworthiness.Theymayevenworktoissuers’advantage.Theincentivesforconsumerstokeeppayingthemortgagedecreaseifpropertiesareworthlessthanthevalueoftheloan;carddebtriseshigherupthelistofrepaymentprioritiesasaresult. Cardissuersarealsoabletorespondmuchmoreswiftlyandflexiblytostormierconditionsthanmortgagelendersarebychanginginterestratesoralteringcreditlimits.Thatshouldintheoryreducetheriskofarapidrepricingofassets."Wearenotgoingtowakeuponedayandtotallyrevaluetheloans"saysGaryPerlinCapitalOne’schieffinancialofficer. Ifasuddensubprime-stylemeltdowninthecredit-cardmarketisimprobabletherisksofasustaineddownturnaremuchmorereal.IflowerhousepricesandacontractionincreditpushAmericaintorecessiontheindustrywillundoubtedlyfaceagrimmerfuture.Keepwatchingforthosedorsalfins. Inwhatwaydoesthesubprimemortgageinfluencecreditcardmarket
Inmostpartsoftheworldclimatechangeisaworryingsubject.NotsoinCalifornia.Atarecentgatheringofgreenluminaries--inafilmstar’shousenaturallyforthatishowseriousnessisoftenestablishedinLosAngeles--thedominantnotewasself-satisfactionatwhatthestatehasalreadyachieved.AndperhapsnobodyismorecomplacentthanArnoldSchwarzenegger.UnlikeA1GoreapresidentialcandidateturnedprophetofenvironmentaldoomCalifornia’sgovernorsoundscheerfulwhentalkingaboutclimatechange.Aswellhemight:ithasmadehispoliticalcareer. AlthoughCaliforniahaslongbeenanenvironmentally-consciousstateuntilrecentlygreenswereconcernedaboveallwithsmogandredwoodtrees."CoastofDreams"KevinStarr’sauthoritativehistoryofcontemporaryCaliforniapublishedin2004doesnotmentionclimatechange.Inthatyearthoughthenewly-electedMr.Schwarzeneggermadehisfirsttentativecallforwesternstatestoseekalternativestofossilfuels.Graduallyhenoticedthathiseffortstotackleclimatechangemetwithlessresistanceandmoreacclaimthanjustaboutallhisotherpolicies.Thesedaysitcanseemasthoughheworksonnothingelse. Mr.Schwarzenegger’stransformationfromscreenwarriortoeco-warriorwascompletedlastyearwhenhesignedabillimposinglegally-enforceablelimitsongreenhouse--gasemissions--afirstforAmerica.ThanksmostlytoitslackofcoalandheavyindustryCaliforniaisarelativelycleanstate.Ifitwereacountryitwouldbetheworld’seighth-biggesteconomybutonlyits16th-biggestpolluter.Itsbigproblemistransport--meaningmostlycarsandtruckswhichaccountformorethan40%ofitsgreenhouse-gasemissionscomparedwith32%inAmericaasawhole.Thestatewantstoratchetdownemissionslimitsonnewvehiclesbeginningin2009.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasalsoorderedthatby2020vehiclefuelmustproduce10%lesscarbon:intheproductionaswellastheburningsoasimpleswitchtocorn-basedethanolisprobablyout. ThanksinparttoCalifornia’sexamplemostofthewesternstateshaveadoptedclimateactionplans.WhenitcomestosettingemissiontargetsthescenecanresembleaposedownataMr.Olympiacontest.Arizona’sclimate-changescholarsdecidedtosetatargetofcuttingthestate’semissionsto2000levelsby2020.ButJanetNapolitanothegovernorwasdeterminednottobeout-muscledbyCalifornia.ShehasdeclaredthatArizonawilltrytoreturnto2000emissionlevelsby2012. Californiahasnotjustinspiredotherstates;ithascreatedavanguardthatoughttobeabletoprodthefederalgovernmentintostrongernationalstandardsthanitwouldotherwiseconsider.ButCaliforniaisfindingiteasiertoexportitspoliciesthantoputthemintopracticeathome.InonewayCalifornia’sself-confidenceisfullyjustified.Ithasdonemorethananyotherstate--letalonethefederalgovernment--tofixAmerica’sattentiononclimatechange.Ithasalsomadeitseemasthoughtheproblemcanbesolved.Whichiswhyfailurewouldbesuchbadnews.AtthemomentCaliforniaisabeacontootherstates.Ifitfailsitwillbecomeanexcuseforinaction. Itcanbeinferredfromthetextthat
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 43
Anawkward-lookingcharactersuchasCyranodeBergeracmightsniffatthesuggestionbutrecentscientificresearchshowsbeautybrainsandbrawnmayinfactallbealliedwritesDrRajPersaud. 46Psychologistshaveconcludedthatwemaybedrawntothestereotypicallyattractivebecauseofwhattheirfacesrevealabouttheirintelligenceandsuccessinlaterlife.InAmericanresearchledbyProfessorLeslieZebrowitzofBrandeisUniversityhasshownanassociationbetweenfacialattractiveandIQ.Strangersbrieflyexposedtoatarget’sfacewereabletocorrectlyjudgeintelligenceatlevelssignificantlybetterthanchance. Thesameteamalsoresearchedhowaperson’sattractivenessmightbearrelationtotheirintelligence.Theyfoundthatgood-lookingpeopledidbetterinIQtestsastheyaged.47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.48Perhapsbecausethemoreattractivepeopleweretreatedasmoreintelligenttheyendeduphavingmorestimulatingandthereforeintelligence-enhancinglives. DoesthismeanthatyourfacereallycouldbeyourdestinySociologistsDrUlrichMuellerandDrAllanMazuroftheUniversityofMarburginGermanyrecentlyanalyzedthefinalyearphotographsofthe1950graduatesofWestPointintheUnitedStates.Dominantfacialappearancesturnedouttobeaconsistentpredictoroflater-rankattainment: Againtheybelievedtherecouldbeaself-fulfillingeffect.49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks. AteamattheRoyalCollegeofSurgeonsinDublinhasbeeninvestigatingthesensitivesubjectoflinksbetweenphysicalandmentalabnormalities.LedbyDoctorsRobinHennessyandJohnWaddingtontheteamusedanewlasersurface-scanningtechniquetomakea3-Danalysisofhowfacialshapemightvarywithbrainstructure.Theirfindingsshowedthatinearlyfetallifebrainandfacedevelopmentareintimatelyconnected.Fromthistheyconcludedthatabnormalitiesinbrainelaborationprobablyalsoaffectfacedevelopment. ThisaccordingtothemexplainsthestrikingfacialfeaturesofsomeonewithDown’ssyndrome.50Usingsimilartechniquestheteamalsodemonstratedhowotherdisorderslinkedtobrainaberrationscouldbeassociatedwithfacialalterations. Sotheverylatestscientificresearchsuggeststhatnobodyshouldtrytolooktooobviouslydifferentfromaverage. 47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.
[A]Extensiveapplicationsofhaptictechnology. [B]Possibilitiesrenderedbyhapticmechanisms. [C]Thefeasibilityofextendingoursensesandexploringabstractuniverses. [D]Anexampleoftheprogressinscienceofhaptics. [E]Bringingthepotentialofoursensesintofullplay. [F]Willhapticsstepintoabrightfuture "OOOF!"Usingyourmouseyouheaveadatafileacrossthescreen--acoupleofgigabytesofdataweighalot.Itsroughsurfacetellsyouthatitisagraphicsfile.Havingtippedthishugepileofdataintoahopperthatsendsittotherightprogramyouexamineascreenimageoftheforesttrailyou’llbehikingonyourvacation.Thenusingaglovedhandyoumasteritsdetailsbyrunningyourfingersoveritsforksandbendsitssharprisesandfalls.LateryousendanE-mailtoyourbelovedbendingtothedeskpadtoattachakiss. 41.__________. ThescienceofhapticsfromtheGreekhaptesthai"totouch"ismakingthesefantasiesreal.Afewprimitivedevicesareextendinghuman-machinecommunicationbeyondvisionandsound.Hapticjoysticksandsteeringwheelsforcomputergamesarealreadygivinghappyplayerssomeofthesensationsofpilotingaspaceshipdrivingaracingcarorfiringweapons.Intimehapticinterfacesmayallowustomanipulatesinglemoleculesfeelcloudsandgalaxiesevenreachintohigherdimensionstograspthesubtlestructuresofmathematics. 42.__________. Mostofoursensestirepassive.Inhearingandvisionforexamplethesoundorlightissimplyreceivedandanalyzed.Buttouchisdifferent:weactivelyexploreandalterrealitywithourhandssothesameactionthatgathersinformationcanalsochangetheworld--tomodelapieceofclayorpressabuttonforexample.Inprovidingdirectcontactbetweenpeopletouchcarriesemotionalimpact.Andinprovidingdirectcontactwiththeworlditisthesuresignofrealityasin"pinchme--amIdreaming" 43.__________. Somesmallstepshaveevenbeentakentowardswhole-bodyhaptics.TouchTechnologyofNovaScotiaCanadahasbuiltahapticchair.Itlookslikeafull-lengthloungechairinafamilydenbutitssurfaceisstuddedwith72"tactors"-pneumaticpistonrodscoveredwithroundedbuttonsthatcanextendaboutaninchandcanbedrivenundercomputercontrolinanydesiredsequenceandpattern.Itcouldbeprogrammedtoimitatearealmassageortofunctionintimetomusic.Accordingtothemanufacturerthatprovidesapowerfulblendingofsen-sations--along-termgoalofvirtualreality. 44.__________. Evenatitspresentcrudelevelhoweverhapticscanmaketangiblewhatoncecouldnotbetouchedorevenpictured.ToinvestigatetheworldoftheverysmallresearchersattheUniversityofNorthCarolinaChapelHillhavedevelopedthenanoManipulator.Thisaddstouchtothetechniqueofscanningprobemicroscopywhichcanimageasingleatombymonitoringeithertheelectricalcurrentflowingbetweenanextremelyfineprobeandasurfaceortheforcebetweenthem.WiththenanoManipulatorresearcherscanseeandmanipulateauniverseamilliontimessmallerthantheirowntostudyvirusesandtinysemiconductingdevices.Iftheforcefeedbackcanbemadesensitiveenoughitmaybepossibletopushmolecularkeysintospecificmolecularlockstocustom-designdrugsorassemblesiliconpartsintointricatenanomachines.Withotherinterfacesthereisnoreasonweshouldn’talsobeabletotouchtheverylarge-cloudsoceancurrentsmantleflowsmountainsgalaxyclusters.Ortheverystrong--withasuitableforcescalingnewceramicsoralloyscouldbesqueezedandtwangedtotesttheirengineeringproperties.Orthephysicallyextremeandinaccessible--suchasultrahotplasmaflowsinfusionmachines. 45.__________. Haptictechnologycouldevenmakeabstractideastangible.Manyscientificconceptsoccupyspacesofmorethanthreedimensionsstringtheoryfor’exampleassertsthatweliveina10or11-dimensionalUniverse.Asitisimpossibletovisualisesuchaspaceweexploretheseideas’throughmathematicalexpressionsortwodimensionalsketchesonpaper.Butprobingtheseunfamiliargeometrieswithtouchmaybemoreeffective.Andforblindpeoplehapticsoffersanewwaytograspinformationeveninthreedimensions.AgroupattheUniversityofDelawarehasdevelopedanenvironmentwhereapersoncanfeelamathematicalfunction.UsingaPHAN-TOMtheuser"walks"alongthesurfaceofthefigure.Likeahikerfollowingmountainousterraintheuserfeelswherethefunctionissteepwhereitislevelandwhereitspeaksandvalleyslie.OtherhapticsystemscouldhelpblindpeopletobrowsetheInternetfeelingimagesaswellaswords. Thefutureofhapticsisbrightbuttheonlysensualrelationshipitwillbesustaininganytimesoonisbetweenyouandyourcomputer. 43
Whenthereisbloodinthewateritisonlynaturalthatdorsalfinsswirlaroundexcitedly.NowthatAmerica’shousingmarketisailingpredatorshavetheirsightsonthecountry’scredit-cardmarket.AnalystsatGoldmanSachsreckonthatcredit-cardlossescouldreach$99billionifcontagionspreadsfromsubprimemortgagestootherformsofconsumercredit.Signsofstrainareclearlyvisible.Therearerisesinboththecharge-offanddelinquencyrateswhichmeasuretheshareofbalancesthatareuncollectableormorethan30dayslaterespectively.HSBCannouncedlastmonththatithadtakena$1.4billionchargeinitsAmericanconsumer-financebusinesspartlybecauseofweaknessamongcardborrowers. Itistooearlytopanicthough.Charge-offsanddelinquenciesarestilllow.AccordingtoMoody’saratingagencythethird-quarterdelinquencyrateof3.89%wasalmostafullpercentagepointbelowthehistoricalaverage.Thedeteriorationinratescanbepartlyexplainedbytechnicalfactors.AchangeinAmerica’spersonal-bankruptcylawsin2005ledtoanabruptfallinbankruptcyfilingswhichinturnaccountforabigchunkofcredit-cardlosses;thenumberoffilingsandthuscharge-offrateswouldberisingagainwhetherornotoverallconditionsforborrowersweregettingworse. Theindustryalsoreportssolidpaymentrateswhichshowhowmuchoftheirdebtconsumerspayoffeachmonth.Andconfidenceincredit-cardasset-backedsecuritiesisprettyfirmdespiteparalysisinothercornersofstructuredfinance.DennisMoroneyofTowerGrouparesearchfirmpredictsthatissuancevolumesfor2007willendupbeing25%higherthanlastyear. Directchannelsofinfectionbetweenthesubprime-mortgagecrisisandthecredit-cardmarketcertainlyexist:consumersarelikeliertoloaduponcredit-carddebtnowthathome-equityloansaredryingup.Butcardissuerslookatcashflowratherthanassetvaluessofallinghousepricesdonotnecessarilytriggerachangeinborrowers’creditworthiness.Theymayevenworktoissuers’advantage.Theincentivesforconsumerstokeeppayingthemortgagedecreaseifpropertiesareworthlessthanthevalueoftheloan;carddebtriseshigherupthelistofrepaymentprioritiesasaresult. Cardissuersarealsoabletorespondmuchmoreswiftlyandflexiblytostormierconditionsthanmortgagelendersarebychanginginterestratesoralteringcreditlimits.Thatshouldintheoryreducetheriskofarapidrepricingofassets."Wearenotgoingtowakeuponedayandtotallyrevaluetheloans"saysGaryPerlinCapitalOne’schieffinancialofficer. Ifasuddensubprime-stylemeltdowninthecredit-cardmarketisimprobabletherisksofasustaineddownturnaremuchmorereal.IflowerhousepricesandacontractionincreditpushAmericaintorecessiontheindustrywillundoubtedlyfaceagrimmerfuture.Keepwatchingforthosedorsalfins. WhichofthefollowingstatementsmayNOTsupporttheexpressionItistooearlytopanicthoughinthesecondparagraph
"We’reusingthewrongword"saysSeanDrysdaleadesperatedoctorfromaruralhospitalatHlabisainnorthernKwaZulu-Natal."Thisisn’tanepidemicit’sadisaster."ArecentUNIEFreportwhichstatesthatalmostone-thirdofSwaziland’s900000peopleareinfectedwithHIVthevirusthatcausesAIDSsupportsthisdiagnosis.HIVisspreadingfasterinsouthernAfricathananywhereelseintheworld. ButisanyonepayingattentionDespitethefactthatmostoftheworld’s33.5millionHIV/AIDScasesareinsub-SaharanAfrica—withanadditional4millioninfectedeachyear—theprioritiesatlastweek’sOrganizationofAfricanUnitysummitwereconflictresolutionandeconomiesdevelopment.Yettheepidemiccouldhaveagreatereffectoneconomicdevelopment—orratherthelackofit—thanmanypoliticianssuspect. Whilebusinessleadersaremoreconcernedaboutthe2Kmillenniumbugthanthelong-termeffectofAIDSstatisticsshowthattheworkfareinSouthAfricaforinstanceislikelytobe20%HIVpositivebynextyear.Medicalofficialsandresearcherswarnthatnotasinglecountryintheregionhasacohesivegovernmentstrategytotacklethecrisis. ThewaymanagersaddressAIDSintheworkplacewilldeterminewhethertheircompaniessurvivethefirstdecadeofthe21stcenturysaysDeaneMooreanactuaryforSouthAfrica’sMetropolitanLifeInsuranceCompany.MooreestimatesthatinSouthAfricatherewillbe580000newAIDScasesayearandalifeexpectancyofjust38by2010."We’llbebacktotheMiddleAges"saysDrysdalewhosehospitalisinoneoftheareasinSouthAfricawiththehighestratesofHIVinfection."Thegraphisheadingtowardthevertical.Andyetpeoplearestillnottakingitseriously." MostsouthernAfricancountriesaresimplytoopoortosupplymorethanbasichealthservicesletalonemedicinestoconfrontthecrisis.PatientsinsomegovernmenthospitalsinHararehavetosupplytheirownbeddingfooddrugsandinsomecaseseventheirownnurses.Zimbabwe’sfraildomesticeconomydependstoalargeextentoninformalenterprisesandsmallbusinessesmanyofwhicharegoingbankruptasAIDStakesitstollonownersandemployees."Therippleeffectisdevastating"saysHarareAIDSresearcherReneLoewenson. MoreominousaretheimplicationsforSouthAfricawithasophisticatedindustrialinfrastructureaswellasawidespreadinformalsector.WhiletheSouthAfricangovernmentisactiveinpromotingAIDSeducationithasn’tthemoneymanpowerormaterialtocopewiththeattackofAIDS. WhichisthemajorreasonfortheAIDSsituationinSouthAfrica
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