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下列证候除哪项外均可出现胁痛
肝气邯结
肝火上炎
肝胆湿热
气滞血瘀
肝阳化风
齿龈流血红肿疼痛为
胃火上攻
肾火上炎
湿热上蒸
胃阴不足
肝火上炎
下列证候除哪项外均可出现胁痛
肝火上炎
气滞血瘀
肝气郁结
肝胆湿热
肝阳化风
肝火上炎证与肝阳上亢证均可出现的症状有
头重脚轻
头晕耳鸣
头痛易怒
失眠多梦
可出现口苦的证候是
肝胆火热
心火上炎
肝火上炎
胆气上泛
肝火上炎可出现
头晕胀痛
手足蠕动
目涩
胸闷喜太息
咽喉肿痛
肝火上炎可出现
头晕胀痛
手足
动
目涩
胸闷喜太息
咽喉肿痛
下列证候除哪项外均可可出现胁痛
肝气郁结
肝火上炎
肝胆湿热
气滞血瘀
肝阳化风
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Ofallthecomponentsofagoodnight’’ssleepdreamsseemtobeleastwithinourcontrol.Indreamsawindowopensintoaworldwherelogicissuspendedanddeadpeoplespeak.AcenturyagoFreudformulatedhisrevolutionarytheorythatdreamswerethedisguisedshadowsofourunconsciousdesiresandfears;bythelate1970sneurologistshadswitchedtothinkingofthemasjustmentalnoise―therandombyproductsoftheneural-repairworkthatgoesonduringsleep.Nowresearcherssuspectthatdreamsarepartofthemind’’semotionalthermostatregulatingmoodswhilethebrainisoff-line.Andoneleadingauthoritysaysthattheseintenselypowerfulmentaleventscanbenotonlyharnessedbutactuallybroughtunderconsciouscontroltohelpussleepandfeelbetter.It’’syourdreamsaysRosalindCartwrightchairofpsychologyatChicago’’sMedicalCenter.Ifyoudon’’tlikeitchangeit. Evidencefrombrainimagingsupportsthisview.ThebrainisasactiveduringREMrapideyemovementsleep―whenmostvividdreamsoccur―asitiswhenfullyawakesaysDr.EricNofzingerattheUniversityofPittsburgh.Butnotallpartsofthebrainareequallyinvolved;thelimbicsystemtheemotionalbrainisespeciallyactivewhiletheprefrontalcortexthecenterofintellectandreasoningisrelativelyquiet.WewakeupfromdreamshappyordepressedandthosefeelingscanstaywithusalldaysaysStanfordsleepresearcherDr.WilliamDement. ThelinkbetweendreamsandemotionsshowsupamongthepatientsinCartwright’’sclinic.Mostpeopleseemtohavemorebaddreamsearlyinthenightprogressingtowardhappieronesbeforeawakeningsuggestingthattheyareworkingthroughnegativefeelingsgeneratedduringtheday.Becauseourconsciousmindisoccupiedwithdailylifewedon’’talwaysthinkabouttheemotionalsignificanceoftheday’’sevents―untilitappearswebegintodream. Andthisprocessneednotbelefttotheunconscious.Cartwrightbelievesonecanexerciseconsciouscontroloverrecurringbaddreams.Assoonasyouawakenidentifywhatisupsettingaboutthedream.Visualizehowyouwouldlikeittoendinstead;thenexttimeitoccurstrytowakeupjustenoughtocontrolitscourse.Withmuchpracticepeoplecanlearntoliterallydoitintheirsleep. Attheendofthedaythere’’sprobablylittlereasontopayattentiontoourdreamsatallunlesstheykeepusfromsleepingorwewakeupinapanicCartwrightsays.Terrorismeconomicuncertaintiesandgeneralfeelingsofinsecurityhaveincreasedpeople’’sanxiety.Thosesufferingfrompersistentnightmaresshouldseekhelpfromatherapist.Fortherestofusthebrainhasitswaysofworkingthroughbadfeelings.Sleeporratherdream―onitandyou’’llfeelbetterinthemorning. Cartwrightseemstosuggestthat
Ofallthecomponentsofagoodnight’’ssleepdreamsseemtobeleastwithinourcontrol.Indreamsawindowopensintoaworldwherelogicissuspendedanddeadpeoplespeak.AcenturyagoFreudformulatedhisrevolutionarytheorythatdreamswerethedisguisedshadowsofourunconsciousdesiresandfears;bythelate1970sneurologistshadswitchedtothinkingofthemasjustmentalnoise―therandombyproductsoftheneural-repairworkthatgoesonduringsleep.Nowresearcherssuspectthatdreamsarepartofthemind’’semotionalthermostatregulatingmoodswhilethebrainisoff-line.Andoneleadingauthoritysaysthattheseintenselypowerfulmentaleventscanbenotonlyharnessedbutactuallybroughtunderconsciouscontroltohelpussleepandfeelbetter.It’’syourdreamsaysRosalindCartwrightchairofpsychologyatChicago’’sMedicalCenter.Ifyoudon’’tlikeitchangeit. Evidencefrombrainimagingsupportsthisview.ThebrainisasactiveduringREMrapideyemovementsleep―whenmostvividdreamsoccur―asitiswhenfullyawakesaysDr.EricNofzingerattheUniversityofPittsburgh.Butnotallpartsofthebrainareequallyinvolved;thelimbicsystemtheemotionalbrainisespeciallyactivewhiletheprefrontalcortexthecenterofintellectandreasoningisrelativelyquiet.WewakeupfromdreamshappyordepressedandthosefeelingscanstaywithusalldaysaysStanfordsleepresearcherDr.WilliamDement. ThelinkbetweendreamsandemotionsshowsupamongthepatientsinCartwright’’sclinic.Mostpeopleseemtohavemorebaddreamsearlyinthenightprogressingtowardhappieronesbeforeawakeningsuggestingthattheyareworkingthroughnegativefeelingsgeneratedduringtheday.Becauseourconsciousmindisoccupiedwithdailylifewedon’’talwaysthinkabouttheemotionalsignificanceoftheday’’sevents―untilitappearswebegintodream. Andthisprocessneednotbelefttotheunconscious.Cartwrightbelievesonecanexerciseconsciouscontroloverrecurringbaddreams.Assoonasyouawakenidentifywhatisupsettingaboutthedream.Visualizehowyouwouldlikeittoendinstead;thenexttimeitoccurstrytowakeupjustenoughtocontrolitscourse.Withmuchpracticepeoplecanlearntoliterallydoitintheirsleep. Attheendofthedaythere’’sprobablylittlereasontopayattentiontoourdreamsatallunlesstheykeepusfromsleepingorwewakeupinapanicCartwrightsays.Terrorismeconomicuncertaintiesandgeneralfeelingsofinsecurityhaveincreasedpeople’’sanxiety.Thosesufferingfrompersistentnightmaresshouldseekhelpfromatherapist.Fortherestofusthebrainhasitswaysofworkingthroughbadfeelings.Sleeporratherdream―onitandyou’’llfeelbetterinthemorning. Byreferringtothelimbicsystemtheauthorintendstoshow
ReadthefollowingtextcarefullyandthentranslatetheunderlinedsegmentsintoChinese.YourtranslationmustbewrittenneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.10points Ishallmentiontwoorthreemattersinwhichtheneedforcooperationbetweenphilosophyandscienceisespeciallyintimate.46Sincescientificmethoddependsuponfirst-handexperimentallycontrolledexperiencesanyphilosophicapplicationofthescientificpointofviewwillemphasizetheneedofsuchexperiencesintheschoolasoveragainstmereacquisitionofready-madeinformationthatissuppliedinisolationfromthestudents’’ownexperience.Sofaritwillbeinlinewithwhatiscalledtheprogressivemovementineducation.Butitwillbeaninfluenceincounteractinganytendenciesthatmayexistinprogressiveeducationtoslighttheimportanceofcontinuityintheexperiencesthatarehadandtheimportanceoforganization.47Unlessthescienceofeducationonitsowngroundandbehalfemphasizessubject-matterswhichcontainwithinthemselvesthepromiseandpowerofcontinuousgrowthinthedirectionoforganizationitisfalsetoitsownpositionasscientific.48Incooperationwithaphilosophyofeducationitcanlendinvaluableaidinseeingtoitthatthechosensubject-mattersarealsosuchthattheyprogressivelydeveloptowardformationofattitudesofunderstandingtheworldinwhichstudentsandteachersliveandtowardformingtheattitudesofpurposedesireandactionwhichwillmakepupilseffectiveindealingwithsocialconditions. Anotherpointofcommoninterestconcernstheplaceintheschoolsofthesciencesespeciallytheplaceofthehabitswhichformscientificattitudeandmethod.Thescienceshadtobattleagainstpowerfulenemiestoobtainrecognitioninthecurriculum.Inaformalsensethebattlehasbeenwonbutnotyetinasubstantialsense.Forscientificsubject-matterisstillmoreorlessisolatedasaspecialbodyoffactsandtruths.49Thefullvictorywillnotbewonuntileverysubjectandlessonistaughtinconnectionwithitsbearinguponcreationandgrowthofthekindofpowerofobservationinquiryreflectionandtestingthataretheheartofscientificintelligence.Experimentalphilosophyisatonewiththegenuinespiritofascientificattitudeintheendeavortoobtainforscientificmethodthiscentralplaceineducation. Finallythescienceandphilosophyofeducationcanandshouldworktogetherinovercomingthesplitbetweenknowledgeandactionbetweentheoryandpracticewhichnowaffectsbotheducationandsocietysoseriouslyandharmfully.50Indeeditisnottoomuchtosaythatinstitutionofahappymarriagebetweentheoryandpracticeisintheendthechiefmeaningofascienceandaphilosophyofeducationthatworktogetherforcommonends.
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Scientistscouldmoreaccuratelypredicttheextentanddirectionofgreenhouseeffectiftheywereto
ReadthefollowingtextcarefullyandthentranslatetheunderlinedsegmentsintoChinese.YourtranslationmustbewrittenneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.10points Ishallmentiontwoorthreemattersinwhichtheneedforcooperationbetweenphilosophyandscienceisespeciallyintimate.46Sincescientificmethoddependsuponfirst-handexperimentallycontrolledexperiencesanyphilosophicapplicationofthescientificpointofviewwillemphasizetheneedofsuchexperiencesintheschoolasoveragainstmereacquisitionofready-madeinformationthatissuppliedinisolationfromthestudents’’ownexperience.Sofaritwillbeinlinewithwhatiscalledtheprogressivemovementineducation.Butitwillbeaninfluenceincounteractinganytendenciesthatmayexistinprogressiveeducationtoslighttheimportanceofcontinuityintheexperiencesthatarehadandtheimportanceoforganization.47Unlessthescienceofeducationonitsowngroundandbehalfemphasizessubject-matterswhichcontainwithinthemselvesthepromiseandpowerofcontinuousgrowthinthedirectionoforganizationitisfalsetoitsownpositionasscientific.48Incooperationwithaphilosophyofeducationitcanlendinvaluableaidinseeingtoitthatthechosensubject-mattersarealsosuchthattheyprogressivelydeveloptowardformationofattitudesofunderstandingtheworldinwhichstudentsandteachersliveandtowardformingtheattitudesofpurposedesireandactionwhichwillmakepupilseffectiveindealingwithsocialconditions. Anotherpointofcommoninterestconcernstheplaceintheschoolsofthesciencesespeciallytheplaceofthehabitswhichformscientificattitudeandmethod.Thescienceshadtobattleagainstpowerfulenemiestoobtainrecognitioninthecurriculum.Inaformalsensethebattlehasbeenwonbutnotyetinasubstantialsense.Forscientificsubject-matterisstillmoreorlessisolatedasaspecialbodyoffactsandtruths.49Thefullvictorywillnotbewonuntileverysubjectandlessonistaughtinconnectionwithitsbearinguponcreationandgrowthofthekindofpowerofobservationinquiryreflectionandtestingthataretheheartofscientificintelligence.Experimentalphilosophyisatonewiththegenuinespiritofascientificattitudeintheendeavortoobtainforscientificmethodthiscentralplaceineducation. Finallythescienceandphilosophyofeducationcanandshouldworktogetherinovercomingthesplitbetweenknowledgeandactionbetweentheoryandpracticewhichnowaffectsbotheducationandsocietysoseriouslyandharmfully.50Indeeditisnottoomuchtosaythatinstitutionofahappymarriagebetweentheoryandpracticeisintheendthechiefmeaningofascienceandaphilosophyofeducationthatworktogetherforcommonends.
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 TheNASA-sponsoredstudyoftheozonehole
. Studythefollowingcartooncarefullyandwriteanessayinwhichyoushould 1describethecartoon 2interpretitsmainideaand 3proposepossiblesolutions. Youshouldwriteabout160--200wordsneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.20points
若耳背见有红络伴耳根发凉多为
ReadthefollowingtextcarefullyandthentranslatetheunderlinedsegmentsintoChinese.YourtranslationmustbewrittenneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.10points Ishallmentiontwoorthreemattersinwhichtheneedforcooperationbetweenphilosophyandscienceisespeciallyintimate.46Sincescientificmethoddependsuponfirst-handexperimentallycontrolledexperiencesanyphilosophicapplicationofthescientificpointofviewwillemphasizetheneedofsuchexperiencesintheschoolasoveragainstmereacquisitionofready-madeinformationthatissuppliedinisolationfromthestudents’’ownexperience.Sofaritwillbeinlinewithwhatiscalledtheprogressivemovementineducation.Butitwillbeaninfluenceincounteractinganytendenciesthatmayexistinprogressiveeducationtoslighttheimportanceofcontinuityintheexperiencesthatarehadandtheimportanceoforganization.47Unlessthescienceofeducationonitsowngroundandbehalfemphasizessubject-matterswhichcontainwithinthemselvesthepromiseandpowerofcontinuousgrowthinthedirectionoforganizationitisfalsetoitsownpositionasscientific.48Incooperationwithaphilosophyofeducationitcanlendinvaluableaidinseeingtoitthatthechosensubject-mattersarealsosuchthattheyprogressivelydeveloptowardformationofattitudesofunderstandingtheworldinwhichstudentsandteachersliveandtowardformingtheattitudesofpurposedesireandactionwhichwillmakepupilseffectiveindealingwithsocialconditions. Anotherpointofcommoninterestconcernstheplaceintheschoolsofthesciencesespeciallytheplaceofthehabitswhichformscientificattitudeandmethod.Thescienceshadtobattleagainstpowerfulenemiestoobtainrecognitioninthecurriculum.Inaformalsensethebattlehasbeenwonbutnotyetinasubstantialsense.Forscientificsubject-matterisstillmoreorlessisolatedasaspecialbodyoffactsandtruths.49Thefullvictorywillnotbewonuntileverysubjectandlessonistaughtinconnectionwithitsbearinguponcreationandgrowthofthekindofpowerofobservationinquiryreflectionandtestingthataretheheartofscientificintelligence.Experimentalphilosophyisatonewiththegenuinespiritofascientificattitudeintheendeavortoobtainforscientificmethodthiscentralplaceineducation. Finallythescienceandphilosophyofeducationcanandshouldworktogetherinovercomingthesplitbetweenknowledgeandactionbetweentheoryandpracticewhichnowaffectsbotheducationandsocietysoseriouslyandharmfully.50Indeeditisnottoomuchtosaythatinstitutionofahappymarriagebetweentheoryandpracticeisintheendthechiefmeaningofascienceandaphilosophyofeducationthatworktogetherforcommonends. ReadthefollowingtextcarefullyandthentranslatetheunderlinedsegmentsintoChinese.YourtranslationmustbewrittenneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.10points Ishallmentiontwoorthreemattersinwhichtheneedforcooperationbetweenphilosophyandscienceisespeciallyintimate.46Sincescientificmethoddependsuponfirst-handexperimentallycontrolledexperiencesanyphilosophicapplicationofthescientificpointofviewwillemphasizetheneedofsuchexperiencesintheschoolasoveragainstmereacquisitionofready-madeinformationthatissuppliedinisolationfromthestudents’’ownexperience.Sofaritwillbeinlinewithwhatiscalledtheprogressivemovementineducation.Butitwillbeaninfluenceincounteractinganytendenciesthatmayexistinprogressiveeducationtoslighttheimportanceofcontinuityintheexperiencesthatarehadandtheimportanceoforganization.47Unlessthescienceofeducationonitsowngroundandbehalfemphasizessubject-matterswhichcontainwithinthemselvesthepromiseandpowerofcontinuousgrowthinthedirectionoforganizationitisfalsetoitsownpositionasscientific.48Incooperationwithaphilosophyofeducationitcanlendinvaluableaidinseeingtoitthatthechosensubject-mattersarealsosuchthattheyprogressivelydeveloptowardformationofattitudesofunderstandingtheworldinwhichstudentsandteachersliveandtowardformingtheattitudesofpurposedesireandactionwhichwillmakepupilseffectiveindealingwithsocialconditions. Anotherpointofcommoninterestconcernstheplaceintheschoolsofthesciencesespeciallytheplaceofthehabitswhichformscientificattitudeandmethod.Thescienceshadtobattleagainstpowerfulenemiestoobtainrecognitioninthecurriculum.Inaformalsensethebattlehasbeenwonbutnotyetinasubstantialsense.Forscientificsubject-matterisstillmoreorlessisolatedasaspecialbodyoffactsandtruths.49Thefullvictorywillnotbewonuntileverysubjectandlessonistaughtinconnectionwithitsbearinguponcreationandgrowthofthekindofpowerofobservationinquiryreflectionandtestingthataretheheartofscientificintelligence.Experimentalphilosophyisatonewiththegenuinespiritofascientificattitudeintheendeavortoobtainforscientificmethodthiscentralplaceineducation. Finallythescienceandphilosophyofeducationcanandshouldworktogetherinovercomingthesplitbetweenknowledgeandactionbetweentheoryandpracticewhichnowaffectsbotheducationandsocietysoseriouslyandharmfully.50Indeeditisnottoomuchtosaythatinstitutionofahappymarriagebetweentheoryandpracticeisintheendthechiefmeaningofascienceandaphilosophyofeducationthatworktogetherforcommonends.
MuchofthelanguageusedtodescribemonetarypolicysuchassteeringtheeconomytoasoftlandingoratouchonthebrakesmakesitsoundLikeaprecisescience.Nothingcouldbefurtherfromthetruth.Thelinkbetweeninterestratesandinflationisuncertain.Andtherearelongvariablelagsbeforepolicychangeshaveanyeffectontheeconomy.Hencetheanalogythatlikenstheconductofmonetarypolicytodrivingacarwithablackenedwindscreenacrackedrear-viewmirrorandafaultysteeringwheel. Givenallthesedisadvantagescentralbankersseemtohavehadmuchtoboastaboutoflate.Averageinflationinthebigsevenindustrialeconomiesfelltoamere2.3%lastyearclosetoitslowestlevelin30yearsbeforerisingslightlyto2.5%thisJuly.Thisisalongwaybelowthedouble-digitrateswhichmanycountriesexperiencedinthe1970sandearly1980s. Itisalsolessthanmostforecastershadpredicted.Inlate1994thepanelofeconomistswhichTheEconomistpollseachmonthsaidthatAmerica’’sinflationratewouldaverage3.5%in1995.Infactitfellto2.6%inAugustandisexpectedtoaverageonlyabout3%fortheyearasawhole.InBritainandJapaninflationisrunninghalfapercentagepointbelowtheratepredictedattheendoflastyear.ThisisnoflashinthepanoverthepastcoupleofyearsinflationhasbeenconsistentlylowerthanexpectedinBritainandAmerica. EconomistshavebeenparticularlysurprisedbyfavourableinflationfiguresinBritainandtheUnitedStatessinceconventionalmeasuressuggestthatbotheconomiesandespeciallyAmerica’’shavelittleproductiveslack.America’’scapacityutilisationforexamplehithistoricallyhighlevelsearlierthisyearanditsjoblessrate5.6%inAugusthasfallenbelowmostestimatesofthenaturalrateofunemployment―theratebelowwhichinflationhastakenoffinthepast. WhyhasinflationprovedsomildThemostthrillingexplanationisunfortunatelyalittledefective.Someeconomistsarguethatpowerfulstructuralchangesintheworldhaveup-endedtheoldeconomicmodelsthatwerebaseduponthehistoricallinkbetweengrowthandinflation. Thepassageshowsthattheauthoris____________thepresentsituation.
MuchofthelanguageusedtodescribemonetarypolicysuchassteeringtheeconomytoasoftlandingoratouchonthebrakesmakesitsoundLikeaprecisescience.Nothingcouldbefurtherfromthetruth.Thelinkbetweeninterestratesandinflationisuncertain.Andtherearelongvariablelagsbeforepolicychangeshaveanyeffectontheeconomy.Hencetheanalogythatlikenstheconductofmonetarypolicytodrivingacarwithablackenedwindscreenacrackedrear-viewmirrorandafaultysteeringwheel. Givenallthesedisadvantagescentralbankersseemtohavehadmuchtoboastaboutoflate.Averageinflationinthebigsevenindustrialeconomiesfelltoamere2.3%lastyearclosetoitslowestlevelin30yearsbeforerisingslightlyto2.5%thisJuly.Thisisalongwaybelowthedouble-digitrateswhichmanycountriesexperiencedinthe1970sandearly1980s. Itisalsolessthanmostforecastershadpredicted.Inlate1994thepanelofeconomistswhichTheEconomistpollseachmonthsaidthatAmerica’’sinflationratewouldaverage3.5%in1995.Infactitfellto2.6%inAugustandisexpectedtoaverageonlyabout3%fortheyearasawhole.InBritainandJapaninflationisrunninghalfapercentagepointbelowtheratepredictedattheendoflastyear.ThisisnoflashinthepanoverthepastcoupleofyearsinflationhasbeenconsistentlylowerthanexpectedinBritainandAmerica. EconomistshavebeenparticularlysurprisedbyfavourableinflationfiguresinBritainandtheUnitedStatessinceconventionalmeasuressuggestthatbotheconomiesandespeciallyAmerica’’shavelittleproductiveslack.America’’scapacityutilisationforexamplehithistoricallyhighlevelsearlierthisyearanditsjoblessrate5.6%inAugusthasfallenbelowmostestimatesofthenaturalrateofunemployment―theratebelowwhichinflationhastakenoffinthepast. WhyhasinflationprovedsomildThemostthrillingexplanationisunfortunatelyalittledefective.Someeconomistsarguethatpowerfulstructuralchangesintheworldhaveup-endedtheoldeconomicmodelsthatwerebaseduponthehistoricallinkbetweengrowthandinflation. AccordingtothepassagewhichofthefollowingisTRUE
Insuchachangingcomplexsocietyformerlysimplesolutionstoinformationalneedsbecomecomplicated.Manyoflife’’sproblemswhichweresolvedbyaskingfamilymembersfriendsorcolleaguesarebeyondthecapabilityoftheextendedfamilytoresolve.Wheretoturnforexpertinformationandhowtodeterminewhichexpertadvicetoacceptarequestionsfacingmanypeopletoday. InadditiontothisthereisthegrowingmobilityofpeoplesinceWorldWarⅡ.Asfamiliesmoveawayfromtheirstablecommunitytheirfriendsofmanyyearstheirextendedfamilyrelationshipstheinformalflowofinformationiscutoffandwithittheconfidencethatinformationwillbeavailablewhenneededandwillbetrustworthyandreliable.Thealmostunconsciousflowofinformationaboutthesimplestaspectsoflivingcanbecutoff.Thusthingsoncelearnedsubconsciouslythroughthecasualcommunicationsoftheextendedfamilymustbeconsciouslylearned. Addingtosocietalchangestodayisanenormousstockpileofinformation.Theindividualnowhasmoreinformationavailablethananygenerationandthetaskoffindingthatonepieceofinformationrelevanttohisorherspecificproblemiscomplicatedtime-consumingandsometimesevenoverwhelming. Coupledwiththegrowingquantityofinformationisthedevelopmentoftechnologieswhichenablethestorageanddeliveryofmoreinformationwithgreaterspeedtomorelocationsthanhaseverbeenpossiblebefore.Computertechnologymakesitpossibletostorevastamountsofdatainmachinereadablefilesandtoprogramcomputerstolocatespecificinformation.Telecommunicationsdevelopmentsenablethesendingofmessagesviatelevisionradioandveryshortlyelectronicmailtobombardpeoplewithmultitudesofmessages.Satelliteshaveextendedthepowerofcommunicationstoreporteventsattheinstantofoccurrence.ExpertisecanbesharedworldwidethroughteleconferencingandproblemsindisputecanbesettledWithouttheparticipantsleavingtheirhomesand/orjobstotraveltoadistantconferencesite.Technologyhasfacilitatedthesharingofinformationandthestorageanddeliveryofinformationthusmakingmoreinformationavailabletomorepeople. Inthisworldofchangeandcomplexitytheneedforinformationisofgreatestimportance.Thosepeoplewhohaveaccuratereliableup-to-dateinformationtosolvetheday-to-dayproblemsthecriticalproblemsoftheirbusinesssocialandfamilylifewillsurviveandsucceed.Knowledgeispowermaywellbethetruestsayingandaccesstoinformationmaybethemostcriticalrequirementofallpeople. Themainproblempeoplemayencountertodayarisesfromthefactthat________________.
Insuchachangingcomplexsocietyformerlysimplesolutionstoinformationalneedsbecomecomplicated.Manyoflife’’sproblemswhichweresolvedbyaskingfamilymembersfriendsorcolleaguesarebeyondthecapabilityoftheextendedfamilytoresolve.Wheretoturnforexpertinformationandhowtodeterminewhichexpertadvicetoacceptarequestionsfacingmanypeopletoday. InadditiontothisthereisthegrowingmobilityofpeoplesinceWorldWarⅡ.Asfamiliesmoveawayfromtheirstablecommunitytheirfriendsofmanyyearstheirextendedfamilyrelationshipstheinformalflowofinformationiscutoffandwithittheconfidencethatinformationwillbeavailablewhenneededandwillbetrustworthyandreliable.Thealmostunconsciousflowofinformationaboutthesimplestaspectsoflivingcanbecutoff.Thusthingsoncelearnedsubconsciouslythroughthecasualcommunicationsoftheextendedfamilymustbeconsciouslylearned. Addingtosocietalchangestodayisanenormousstockpileofinformation.Theindividualnowhasmoreinformationavailablethananygenerationandthetaskoffindingthatonepieceofinformationrelevanttohisorherspecificproblemiscomplicatedtime-consumingandsometimesevenoverwhelming. Coupledwiththegrowingquantityofinformationisthedevelopmentoftechnologieswhichenablethestorageanddeliveryofmoreinformationwithgreaterspeedtomorelocationsthanhaseverbeenpossiblebefore.Computertechnologymakesitpossibletostorevastamountsofdatainmachinereadablefilesandtoprogramcomputerstolocatespecificinformation.Telecommunicationsdevelopmentsenablethesendingofmessagesviatelevisionradioandveryshortlyelectronicmailtobombardpeoplewithmultitudesofmessages.Satelliteshaveextendedthepowerofcommunicationstoreporteventsattheinstantofoccurrence.ExpertisecanbesharedworldwidethroughteleconferencingandproblemsindisputecanbesettledWithouttheparticipantsleavingtheirhomesand/orjobstotraveltoadistantconferencesite.Technologyhasfacilitatedthesharingofinformationandthestorageanddeliveryofinformationthusmakingmoreinformationavailabletomorepeople. Inthisworldofchangeandcomplexitytheneedforinformationisofgreatestimportance.Thosepeoplewhohaveaccuratereliableup-to-dateinformationtosolvetheday-to-dayproblemsthecriticalproblemsoftheirbusinesssocialandfamilylifewillsurviveandsucceed.Knowledgeispowermaywellbethetruestsayingandaccesstoinformationmaybethemostcriticalrequirementofallpeople. Wecanlearnfromthelastparagraphthat________________.
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Welearnfromthetextthattheburningofpetrol
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