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InspiteofrisingconcernintheNortheastandCanadaAdministrationspokesmenhaverepeatedlyinsistedthatnothingcouldreallybedoneaboutacidrainandtheindustry-producedsulfuremissionsuntilallthescientificfactswerein.Suddenlylastweekhoweverfactscamerainingdownineffectmakingfurtherscientificdebateonwhatmainlycausestheproblemallbutirrelevant. WhatbroughtaboutthedownpourwasastudycommissionedbyPresidentialScienceAdviser.Thespokesmenplainlycalledforremedialactionevenifsometechnicalquestionsaboutacidrainwerestillunanswered.Ifwetaketheconservativepointofviewthatwemustwaituntilthescientificknowledgeisdefinitivesaidthespokesmantheaccumulateddepositionanddamagedenvironmentmayreachthepointof’’irreversibility’’. Whenitrainsitpours.NextcameastudyfromtheNationalResearchCouncil.Itsdefinitiveconclusion:reducingemissionsofsulfurdioxidefromcoal-burningpowerplantsandfactoriessuchastheseintheMidwestwouldinfactsignificantlyreducetheacidityinrainsnowandotherprecipitation降水thatiswidelybelievedtobeworseningthelifefromfresh-waterlakesandforestsintheNortheastandCanada.Thespokesmandidnotrecommendanyspecificaction. ApairofremedialmeasuresarealreadytakenbeforeCongress.ASenatecommitteerecentlyapprovedabillthatwouldrequirereductionoverthenextdecadeofsulfur-dioxideemissionsby10milliontonsintheStatesborderingontheeastoftheMississippi.AtoughermeasurewasintroducedintheHouseorderingthe50largestsulfurpollutersintheU.S.tocutemissionssubstantially.ToeasetheEasterncoalminingindustrywhichfearsaswitchtolow-sulfurWesterncoalthebillrequirestheinstallationofexpensivescrubbersdevicesforremovingsulfurfromthesmokeratherthananorderthatforbidshigh-sulfurfuel.StillthelegislationisbeingvigorouslyopposedbythecoalindustryandutilitiesespeciallyintheMid-westwhereheavyindustriesarebattlingtosurvive.InasurveyalsoreleasedlastweektheEdisonElectricInstituteanindustrygroupgravelypredictedthatelectricityratescouldriseasmuchas50%iftheemission-controllegislationpassed. GovernmentstudiesdisputethesefiguresbutCongresshasbeensuspendedonacid-rainmeasures.Nowasaresultoftheacademystudysupportersofthebillsaremoreoptimistic.Neverthelessamajorpoliticalbattleisshapingup. Thisarticlemostprobablyappearedin
Inrecentyearsrailroadshavebeencombiningwitheachothermergingintosupersystemscausingheightenedconcernsaboutmonopoly.Asrecentlyas1995thetopfourrailroadsaccountedforunder70percentofthetotalton-milesmovedbyrails.Nextyearafteraseriesofmergersiscompletedjustfourrailroadswillcontrolwellover90percentofallthefreightmovedbymajorrailcarriers. Supportersofthenewsupersystemsarguethatthesemergerswillallowforsubstantialcostreductionsandbettercoordinatedservice.Anythreatofmonopolytheyargueisremovedbyfiercecompetitionfromtrucks.Butmanyshipperscomplainthatforheavybulkcommoditiestravelinglongdistancessuchascoalchemicalsandgraintruckingistoocostlyandtherailroadsthereforehavethembythethroat. Thevastconsolidationwithintherailindustrymeansthatmostshippersareservedbyonlyonerailcompany.Railroadstypicallychargesuchcaptiveshippers20to30percentmorethantheydowhenanotherrailroadiscompetingforthebusiness.Shipperswhofeeltheyarebeingoverchargedhavetherighttoappealtothefederalgovernment’’sSurfaceTransportationBoardforratereliefbuttheprocessisexpensivetimeconsumingandwillworkonlyintrulyextremecases. Railroadsjustifyratediscriminationagainstcaptiveshippersonthegroundsthatinthelongrunitreduceseveryone’’scost.Ifrailroadschargedallcustomersthesameaverageratetheyargueshipperswhohavetheoptionofswitchingtotrucksorotherformsoftransportationwoulddosoleavingremainingcustomerstoshoulderthecostofkeepinguptheline.It’’satheorytowhichmanyeconomistssubscribebutinpracticeitoftenleavesrailroadsinthepositionofdeterminingwhichcompanieswillflourishandwhichwillfail.DowereallywantrailroadstobethearbitersofwhowinsandwholosesinthemarketplaceasksMartinBercoviciaWashingtonlawyerwhofrequentlyrepresentsshippers. Manycaptiveshippersalsoworrytheywillsoonbehitwitharoundofhugerateincreases.Therailroadindustryasawholedespiteitsbrighteningfortunesstilldoesnotearnenoughtocoverthecostofthecapitalitmustinvesttokeepupwithitssurgingtraffic.YetrailroadscontinuetoborrowbillionstoacquireoneanotherwithWallStreetcheeringthemon.Considerthe$10.2billionbidbyNorfolkSouthernandCSXtoacquireConrailthisyear.Conrail’’snetrailwayoperatingincomein1996wasjust$427millionlessthanhalfofthecarryingcostsofthetransaction.Who’’sgoingtopayfortherestofthebillManycaptiveshippersfearthattheywillasNorfolkSouthernandCSXincreasetheirgriponthemarket. Whatismanycaptiveshippers’’attitudetowardstheconsolidationintherailindustry
Overthepastcenturyallkindsofunfairnessanddiscriminationhavebeencondemnedormadeillegal.Butoneinsidiousformcontinuestothrivealphabetism.Thisforthoseasyetunawareofsuchadisadvantagereferstodiscriminationagainstthosewhosesurnamesbeginwithaletterinthelowerhalfofthealphabet. IthaslongbeenknownthatataxifinncalledAAAAcarshasabigadvantageoverZodiaccarswhencustomersthumbthroughtheirphonedirectories.LesswellknownistheadvantagethatAdamAbbotthasinlifeoverZoZysman.Englishnamesarefairlyevenlyspreadbetweenthehalvesofthealphabet.YetasuspiciouslylargenumberoftoppeoplehavesurnamesbeginningwithlettersbetweenAandK. ThustheAmericanpresidentandvice-presidenthavesurnamesstartingwithBandCrespectively;and26ofGeorgeBush’’spredecessorsincludinghisfatherhadsurnamesinthefirsthalfofthealphabetagainstjust16inthesecondhalf.EvenmorestrikingsixofthesevenheadsofgovernmentoftheG7richcountriesarealphabeticallyadvantagedBerlusconiBlairBushChiracChretienandKoizumi.Theworld’’sthreetopcentralbankersGreenspanDuisenbergandHayamiareallclosetothetopofthealphabetevenifoneofthemreallyusesJapanesecharacters.Asaretheworld’’sfiverichestmenGatesBuffettAllenEllisonandAlbrecht. CanthismerelybecoincidenceOnetheorydreamtupinallthesparetimeenjoyedbythealphabeticallydisadvantagedisthattherotsetsinearly.Atthestartofthefirstyearininfantschoolteachersseatpupilsalphabeticallyfromthefronttomakeiteasiertoremembertheirnames.Soshort-sightedZysmanjuniorgetsstuckinthebackrowandisrarelyaskedtheimprovingquestionsposedbythoseinsensitiveteachers.Atthetimethealphabeticallydisadvantagedmaythinktheyhavehadaluckyescape.Yettheresultmaybeworsequalificationsbecausetheygetlessindividualattentionaswellaslessconfidenceinspeakingpublicly. Thehumiliationcontinues.AtuniversitygraduationceremoniestheABCsproudlygettheirawardsfirst;bythetimetheyreachfileZysmansmostpeopleareliterallyhavingaZZZ.Shortlistsforjobinterviewselectionballotpaperslistsofconferencespeakersandattendees:alltendtobedrawnupalphabeticallyandtheirrecipientsloseinterestastheyploughthroughthem. WhatdoestheauthormeanbymostpeopleareliterallyhavingaZZZLine2Paragraph5.
Studythefollowingpicturecarefullyandwriteanessayinwhichyoushould 1describethepicture 2interpretitsmeaningand 3stateyourplantodoso. Youshouldwriteabout160-200wordsneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.20points
Inrecentyearsrailroadshavebeencombiningwitheachothermergingintosupersystemscausingheightenedconcernsaboutmonopoly.Asrecentlyas1995thetopfourrailroadsaccountedforunder70percentofthetotalton-milesmovedbyrails.Nextyearafteraseriesofmergersiscompletedjustfourrailroadswillcontrolwellover90percentofallthefreightmovedbymajorrailcarriers. Supportersofthenewsupersystemsarguethatthesemergerswillallowforsubstantialcostreductionsandbettercoordinatedservice.Anythreatofmonopolytheyargueisremovedbyfiercecompetitionfromtrucks.Butmanyshipperscomplainthatforheavybulkcommoditiestravelinglongdistancessuchascoalchemicalsandgraintruckingistoocostlyandtherailroadsthereforehavethembythethroat. Thevastconsolidationwithintherailindustrymeansthatmostshippersareservedbyonlyonerailcompany.Railroadstypicallychargesuchcaptiveshippers20to30percentmorethantheydowhenanotherrailroadiscompetingforthebusiness.Shipperswhofeeltheyarebeingoverchargedhavetherighttoappealtothefederalgovernment’’sSurfaceTransportationBoardforratereliefbuttheprocessisexpensivetimeconsumingandwillworkonlyintrulyextremecases. Railroadsjustifyratediscriminationagainstcaptiveshippersonthegroundsthatinthelongrunitreduceseveryone’’scost.Ifrailroadschargedallcustomersthesameaverageratetheyargueshipperswhohavetheoptionofswitchingtotrucksorotherformsoftransportationwoulddosoleavingremainingcustomerstoshoulderthecostofkeepinguptheline.It’’satheorytowhichmanyeconomistssubscribebutinpracticeitoftenleavesrailroadsinthepositionofdeterminingwhichcompanieswillflourishandwhichwillfail.DowereallywantrailroadstobethearbitersofwhowinsandwholosesinthemarketplaceasksMartinBercoviciaWashingtonlawyerwhofrequentlyrepresentsshippers. Manycaptiveshippersalsoworrytheywillsoonbehitwitharoundofhugerateincreases.Therailroadindustryasawholedespiteitsbrighteningfortunesstilldoesnotearnenoughtocoverthecostofthecapitalitmustinvesttokeepupwithitssurgingtraffic.YetrailroadscontinuetoborrowbillionstoacquireoneanotherwithWallStreetcheeringthemon.Considerthe$10.2billionbidbyNorfolkSouthernandCSXtoacquireConrailthisyear.Conrail’’snetrailwayoperatingincomein1996wasjust$427millionlessthanhalfofthecarryingcostsofthetransaction.Who’’sgoingtopayfortherestofthebillManycaptiveshippersfearthattheywillasNorfolkSouthernandCSXincreasetheirgriponthemarket. Thewordarbitersline6paragraph4mostprobablyreferstothose
Inlessthan30years’’timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain’’snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironmentsallowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall. 71.Therewillbetelevisionchatshowshostedbyrobotsandcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.72.Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithpersonalitychipscomputerswithin-builtpersonalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantoolsrelaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-televisionanddigitalagewillhavearrived. AccordingtoBT’’sfuturologistIanPearsontheseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillenniumaperiodof1000yearswhensupercomputerswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife. 73.Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsorkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicineincludinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040. Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.BylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystemcomputerscouldpickupwhatwefeelandhopefullysimulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironmentsratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeckhesays.74.ButthatPearsonpointsoutisonlythestartofman-machineintegration:Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimatelyleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury. ThroughhisresearchPearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.Howevertherearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-that-lighttravelwillbeavailableorwhenhumancloningwillbeperfectedorwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswillforexamplecauseproblemsin2010whilethearrivalofsyntheticlifelikerobotswillmeanpeoplemaynotbeabletodistinguishbetweentheirhumanfriendsandthedroids.75.Andhomeapplianceswillalsobecomesosmartthatcontrollingandoperatingthemwillresultinthebreakoutofanewpsychologicaldisorder--kitchenrage. Inlessthan30years’’timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain’’snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironmentsallowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall. 71.Therewillbetelevisionchatshowshostedbyrobotsandcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.72.Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithpersonalitychipscomputerswithin-builtpersonalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantoolsrelaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-televisionanddigitalagewillhavearrived. AccordingtoBT’’sfuturologistIanPearsontheseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillenniumaperiodof1000yearswhensupercomputerswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife. 73.Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsorkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicineincludinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040. Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.BylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystemcomputerscouldpickupwhatwefeelandhopefullysimulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironmentsratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeckhesays.74.ButthatPearsonpointsoutisonlythestartofman-machineintegration:Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimatelyleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury. ThroughhisresearchPearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.Howevertherearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-that-lighttravelwillbeavailableorwhenhumancloningwillbeperfectedorwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswillforexamplecauseproblemsin2010whilethearrivalofsyntheticlifelikerobotswillmeanpeoplemaynotbeabletodistinguishbetweentheirhumanfriendsandthedroids.75.Andhomeapplianceswillalsobecomesosmartthatcontrollingandoperatingthemwillresultinthebreakoutofanewpsychologicaldisorder--kitchenrage.
Halftheworld’’spopulationwillbespeakingorlearningEnglishby2015researcherssay.TwobillionpeopleareexpectedtostartlearningEnglishwithinadecadeandthreebillionwillspeakitsaysaBritishCouncilestimate. OtherlanguagessuchasFrenchriskbecomingthecasualtiesofthislinguisticglobalization.Buttheboomwillbeoverby2050andtheEnglish-languageteachingindustrywillhavebecomeavictimofitsownsuccesssaysDavidGraddolauthorofthereportTheFutureofEnglish. Mr.Graddol’’sresearchwasbasedonacomputermodeldevelopedtoestimatedemandforEnglish-languageteachingaroundtheworld.ThelecturerwhohasworkedineducationandlanguagestudiesattheOpenUniversityforthepast25yearssaidthemodelchartedlikelystudentnumbersthroughto2050. ItwascompiledbylookingatvariousestimatesfromtheUnitedNationsEducationScientificandCulturalOrganizationUnescooneducationprovisiondemographicprojectionsgovernmenteducationpoliciesandinternationalstudentmobilityfigures.TheimpactofeducationalinnovationsandotherdevelopmentsaffectingtheworldpopulationincludingtheChinesegovernment’’spolicyofonebabyperfamilywerealsofactoredin. BasedonitsfindingsMr.GraddolhaspredictedthattheworldisabouttobehitbyatidalwaveofEnglish.ManygovernmentsespeciallyincountrieswhichhaverelativelyrecentlygainedindependenceareintroducingtheteachingofEnglishunderautilitarianbanner. ButEnglishpredominatesinthebusinessworldandforsuchcountriestobeabletocompeteforworkincludinglucrativeprofitableoutsourcingcontractsEnglishisbeingpushedheavilyfromkindergartenon. ThepotentialbonanzasourceofwealthonofferfromoutsourcingmeansevenmathsandsciencearebeingtaughtinEnglishatsecondaryschoolsinMalaysia.ButdemandforEnglishteachingwoulddropaschildrenprogressthroughacademiaandmoreuniversitiesacrosstheworldchoosetoteachinthelanguage. Mr.Graddolalsoestimatedthattheboomwouldbeoverby2050.English-languagestudentswillbedownfromtwobillionto500millionthenhesaidIncreasinglyasEnglishspreadacrosstheglobemorepeoplewillbecomebilingualevenmulti-lingualandsuchskillsarehighlyprizedinbusiness.ButBritainhasnotgotthebestreputationforlearningotherlanguages. ThereportalsoshowedthatEnglishwasnottheonlylanguagespreadingandtheworldfarfrombeingdominatedbyEnglishwastobecomemoremulti-lingual.Mr.GraddolsaidChineseArabicandSpanishareallpopularandlikelytobelanguagesofthefuture. ItisestimatedthatinadecadeEnglishwillbe
InspiteofrisingconcernintheNortheastandCanadaAdministrationspokesmenhaverepeatedlyinsistedthatnothingcouldreallybedoneaboutacidrainandtheindustry-producedsulfuremissionsuntilallthescientificfactswerein.Suddenlylastweekhoweverfactscamerainingdownineffectmakingfurtherscientificdebateonwhatmainlycausestheproblemallbutirrelevant. WhatbroughtaboutthedownpourwasastudycommissionedbyPresidentialScienceAdviser.Thespokesmenplainlycalledforremedialactionevenifsometechnicalquestionsaboutacidrainwerestillunanswered.Ifwetaketheconservativepointofviewthatwemustwaituntilthescientificknowledgeisdefinitivesaidthespokesmantheaccumulateddepositionanddamagedenvironmentmayreachthepointof’’irreversibility’’. Whenitrainsitpours.NextcameastudyfromtheNationalResearchCouncil.Itsdefinitiveconclusion:reducingemissionsofsulfurdioxidefromcoal-burningpowerplantsandfactoriessuchastheseintheMidwestwouldinfactsignificantlyreducetheacidityinrainsnowandotherprecipitation降水thatiswidelybelievedtobeworseningthelifefromfresh-waterlakesandforestsintheNortheastandCanada.Thespokesmandidnotrecommendanyspecificaction. ApairofremedialmeasuresarealreadytakenbeforeCongress.ASenatecommitteerecentlyapprovedabillthatwouldrequirereductionoverthenextdecadeofsulfur-dioxideemissionsby10milliontonsintheStatesborderingontheeastoftheMississippi.AtoughermeasurewasintroducedintheHouseorderingthe50largestsulfurpollutersintheU.S.tocutemissionssubstantially.ToeasetheEasterncoalminingindustrywhichfearsaswitchtolow-sulfurWesterncoalthebillrequirestheinstallationofexpensivescrubbersdevicesforremovingsulfurfromthesmokeratherthananorderthatforbidshigh-sulfurfuel.StillthelegislationisbeingvigorouslyopposedbythecoalindustryandutilitiesespeciallyintheMid-westwhereheavyindustriesarebattlingtosurvive.InasurveyalsoreleasedlastweektheEdisonElectricInstituteanindustrygroupgravelypredictedthatelectricityratescouldriseasmuchas50%iftheemission-controllegislationpassed. GovernmentstudiesdisputethesefiguresbutCongresshasbeensuspendedonacid-rainmeasures.Nowasaresultoftheacademystudysupportersofthebillsaremoreoptimistic.Neverthelessamajorpoliticalbattleisshapingup. Thefirstparagraphshowsthat
Inlessthan30years’’timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain’’snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironmentsallowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall. 71.Therewillbetelevisionchatshowshostedbyrobotsandcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.72.Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithpersonalitychipscomputerswithin-builtpersonalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantoolsrelaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-televisionanddigitalagewillhavearrived. AccordingtoBT’’sfuturologistIanPearsontheseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillenniumaperiodof1000yearswhensupercomputerswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife. 73.Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsorkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicineincludinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040. Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.BylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystemcomputerscouldpickupwhatwefeelandhopefullysimulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironmentsratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeckhesays.74.ButthatPearsonpointsoutisonlythestartofman-machineintegration:Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimatelyleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury. ThroughhisresearchPearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.Howevertherearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-that-lighttravelwillbeavailableorwhenhumancloningwillbeperfectedorwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswillforexamplecauseproblemsin2010whilethearrivalofsyntheticlifelikerobotswillmeanpeoplemaynotbeabletodistinguishbetweentheirhumanfriendsandthedroids.75.Andhomeapplianceswillalsobecomesosmartthatcontrollingandoperatingthemwillresultinthebreakoutofanewpsychologicaldisorder--kitchenrage.
Ateverystageofdevelopmentclothescanhelpestablishaperson’’sidentityforhimselfandforthosewithwhomheinteracts.Thechildhoodgameofdressingupinparents’’1providestheopportunityforthechildto2theroleshewillbe3toplayinadultlife. Thedegree4whichapersonchoosesclothesthat5theroleswillaffecthisperformanceinthoseroles.Clothesareanimportantfactorindeveloping6ofself-confidenceandself-respect7whenyoulookgoodyoufeelgood.Formostpeopleclothesareoftenasourceof8reactionfromotherssinceinourculturewearemore9tocomplimentapersononhis10thanonother11oftheself MostAmericansalso12thataproperappearanceandproperdressarethekeys13associationwiththerightcrowdwhich14opensthedoorstojobadvancementincreasedincomeandgreaterprestige. Ourclothingneedsare15byamultitudeofcircumstancesbecausebuyingmotivesare16simple.Thefirststepinthedecision-makingprocessistomakea17orderingofthethingsthatareimportanttous.Ifapersonrecognizesand18theprioritiesofhisvalues―e.g.thathisstatusandprestigemaybemoreimportantthanhisphysicalcomfort―his19ofclothingisnotonlysimplifiedbutmorelikelyto20himgreatersatisfaction.
Halftheworld’’spopulationwillbespeakingorlearningEnglishby2015researcherssay.TwobillionpeopleareexpectedtostartlearningEnglishwithinadecadeandthreebillionwillspeakitsaysaBritishCouncilestimate. OtherlanguagessuchasFrenchriskbecomingthecasualtiesofthislinguisticglobalization.Buttheboomwillbeoverby2050andtheEnglish-languageteachingindustrywillhavebecomeavictimofitsownsuccesssaysDavidGraddolauthorofthereportTheFutureofEnglish. Mr.Graddol’’sresearchwasbasedonacomputermodeldevelopedtoestimatedemandforEnglish-languageteachingaroundtheworld.ThelecturerwhohasworkedineducationandlanguagestudiesattheOpenUniversityforthepast25yearssaidthemodelchartedlikelystudentnumbersthroughto2050. ItwascompiledbylookingatvariousestimatesfromtheUnitedNationsEducationScientificandCulturalOrganizationUnescooneducationprovisiondemographicprojectionsgovernmenteducationpoliciesandinternationalstudentmobilityfigures.TheimpactofeducationalinnovationsandotherdevelopmentsaffectingtheworldpopulationincludingtheChinesegovernment’’spolicyofonebabyperfamilywerealsofactoredin. BasedonitsfindingsMr.GraddolhaspredictedthattheworldisabouttobehitbyatidalwaveofEnglish.ManygovernmentsespeciallyincountrieswhichhaverelativelyrecentlygainedindependenceareintroducingtheteachingofEnglishunderautilitarianbanner. ButEnglishpredominatesinthebusinessworldandforsuchcountriestobeabletocompeteforworkincludinglucrativeprofitableoutsourcingcontractsEnglishisbeingpushedheavilyfromkindergartenon. ThepotentialbonanzasourceofwealthonofferfromoutsourcingmeansevenmathsandsciencearebeingtaughtinEnglishatsecondaryschoolsinMalaysia.ButdemandforEnglishteachingwoulddropaschildrenprogressthroughacademiaandmoreuniversitiesacrosstheworldchoosetoteachinthelanguage. Mr.Graddolalsoestimatedthattheboomwouldbeoverby2050.English-languagestudentswillbedownfromtwobillionto500millionthenhesaidIncreasinglyasEnglishspreadacrosstheglobemorepeoplewillbecomebilingualevenmulti-lingualandsuchskillsarehighlyprizedinbusiness.ButBritainhasnotgotthebestreputationforlearningotherlanguages. ThereportalsoshowedthatEnglishwasnottheonlylanguagespreadingandtheworldfarfrombeingdominatedbyEnglishwastobecomemoremulti-lingual.Mr.GraddolsaidChineseArabicandSpanishareallpopularandlikelytobelanguagesofthefuture. ThereportTheFutureofEnglishfactoredinallofthefollowingEXCEPT
InspiteofrisingconcernintheNortheastandCanadaAdministrationspokesmenhaverepeatedlyinsistedthatnothingcouldreallybedoneaboutacidrainandtheindustry-producedsulfuremissionsuntilallthescientificfactswerein.Suddenlylastweekhoweverfactscamerainingdownineffectmakingfurtherscientificdebateonwhatmainlycausestheproblemallbutirrelevant. WhatbroughtaboutthedownpourwasastudycommissionedbyPresidentialScienceAdviser.Thespokesmenplainlycalledforremedialactionevenifsometechnicalquestionsaboutacidrainwerestillunanswered.Ifwetaketheconservativepointofviewthatwemustwaituntilthescientificknowledgeisdefinitivesaidthespokesmantheaccumulateddepositionanddamagedenvironmentmayreachthepointof’’irreversibility’’. Whenitrainsitpours.NextcameastudyfromtheNationalResearchCouncil.Itsdefinitiveconclusion:reducingemissionsofsulfurdioxidefromcoal-burningpowerplantsandfactoriessuchastheseintheMidwestwouldinfactsignificantlyreducetheacidityinrainsnowandotherprecipitation降水thatiswidelybelievedtobeworseningthelifefromfresh-waterlakesandforestsintheNortheastandCanada.Thespokesmandidnotrecommendanyspecificaction. ApairofremedialmeasuresarealreadytakenbeforeCongress.ASenatecommitteerecentlyapprovedabillthatwouldrequirereductionoverthenextdecadeofsulfur-dioxideemissionsby10milliontonsintheStatesborderingontheeastoftheMississippi.AtoughermeasurewasintroducedintheHouseorderingthe50largestsulfurpollutersintheU.S.tocutemissionssubstantially.ToeasetheEasterncoalminingindustrywhichfearsaswitchtolow-sulfurWesterncoalthebillrequirestheinstallationofexpensivescrubbersdevicesforremovingsulfurfromthesmokeratherthananorderthatforbidshigh-sulfurfuel.StillthelegislationisbeingvigorouslyopposedbythecoalindustryandutilitiesespeciallyintheMid-westwhereheavyindustriesarebattlingtosurvive.InasurveyalsoreleasedlastweektheEdisonElectricInstituteanindustrygroupgravelypredictedthatelectricityratescouldriseasmuchas50%iftheemission-controllegislationpassed. GovernmentstudiesdisputethesefiguresbutCongresshasbeensuspendedonacid-rainmeasures.Nowasaresultoftheacademystudysupportersofthebillsaremoreoptimistic.Neverthelessamajorpoliticalbattleisshapingup. FromthedescriptionoftheeffortsintheHousewecanseethat
Overthepastcenturyallkindsofunfairnessanddiscriminationhavebeencondemnedormadeillegal.Butoneinsidiousformcontinuestothrivealphabetism.Thisforthoseasyetunawareofsuchadisadvantagereferstodiscriminationagainstthosewhosesurnamesbeginwithaletterinthelowerhalfofthealphabet. IthaslongbeenknownthatataxifinncalledAAAAcarshasabigadvantageoverZodiaccarswhencustomersthumbthroughtheirphonedirectories.LesswellknownistheadvantagethatAdamAbbotthasinlifeoverZoZysman.Englishnamesarefairlyevenlyspreadbetweenthehalvesofthealphabet.YetasuspiciouslylargenumberoftoppeoplehavesurnamesbeginningwithlettersbetweenAandK. ThustheAmericanpresidentandvice-presidenthavesurnamesstartingwithBandCrespectively;and26ofGeorgeBush’’spredecessorsincludinghisfatherhadsurnamesinthefirsthalfofthealphabetagainstjust16inthesecondhalf.EvenmorestrikingsixofthesevenheadsofgovernmentoftheG7richcountriesarealphabeticallyadvantagedBerlusconiBlairBushChiracChretienandKoizumi.Theworld’’sthreetopcentralbankersGreenspanDuisenbergandHayamiareallclosetothetopofthealphabetevenifoneofthemreallyusesJapanesecharacters.Asaretheworld’’sfiverichestmenGatesBuffettAllenEllisonandAlbrecht. CanthismerelybecoincidenceOnetheorydreamtupinallthesparetimeenjoyedbythealphabeticallydisadvantagedisthattherotsetsinearly.Atthestartofthefirstyearininfantschoolteachersseatpupilsalphabeticallyfromthefronttomakeiteasiertoremembertheirnames.Soshort-sightedZysmanjuniorgetsstuckinthebackrowandisrarelyaskedtheimprovingquestionsposedbythoseinsensitiveteachers.Atthetimethealphabeticallydisadvantagedmaythinktheyhavehadaluckyescape.Yettheresultmaybeworsequalificationsbecausetheygetlessindividualattentionaswellaslessconfidenceinspeakingpublicly. Thehumiliationcontinues.AtuniversitygraduationceremoniestheABCsproudlygettheirawardsfirst;bythetimetheyreachfileZysmansmostpeopleareliterallyhavingaZZZ.Shortlistsforjobinterviewselectionballotpaperslistsofconferencespeakersandattendees:alltendtobedrawnupalphabeticallyandtheirrecipientsloseinterestastheyploughthroughthem. Whatcanweinferfromthefirstthreeparagraphs
Inlessthan30years’’timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain’’snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironmentsallowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall. 71.Therewillbetelevisionchatshowshostedbyrobotsandcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.72.Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithpersonalitychipscomputerswithin-builtpersonalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantoolsrelaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-televisionanddigitalagewillhavearrived. AccordingtoBT’’sfuturologistIanPearsontheseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillenniumaperiodof1000yearswhensupercomputerswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife. 73.Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsorkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicineincludinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040. Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.BylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystemcomputerscouldpickupwhatwefeelandhopefullysimulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironmentsratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeckhesays.74.ButthatPearsonpointsoutisonlythestartofman-machineintegration:Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimatelyleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury. ThroughhisresearchPearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.Howevertherearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-that-lighttravelwillbeavailableorwhenhumancloningwillbeperfectedorwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswillforexamplecauseproblemsin2010whilethearrivalofsyntheticlifelikerobotswillmeanpeoplemaynotbeabletodistinguishbetweentheirhumanfriendsandthedroids.75.Andhomeapplianceswillalsobecomesosmartthatcontrollingandoperatingthemwillresultinthebreakoutofanewpsychologicaldisorder--kitchenrage.
Halftheworld’’spopulationwillbespeakingorlearningEnglishby2015researcherssay.TwobillionpeopleareexpectedtostartlearningEnglishwithinadecadeandthreebillionwillspeakitsaysaBritishCouncilestimate. OtherlanguagessuchasFrenchriskbecomingthecasualtiesofthislinguisticglobalization.Buttheboomwillbeoverby2050andtheEnglish-languageteachingindustrywillhavebecomeavictimofitsownsuccesssaysDavidGraddolauthorofthereportTheFutureofEnglish. Mr.Graddol’’sresearchwasbasedonacomputermodeldevelopedtoestimatedemandforEnglish-languageteachingaroundtheworld.ThelecturerwhohasworkedineducationandlanguagestudiesattheOpenUniversityforthepast25yearssaidthemodelchartedlikelystudentnumbersthroughto2050. ItwascompiledbylookingatvariousestimatesfromtheUnitedNationsEducationScientificandCulturalOrganizationUnescooneducationprovisiondemographicprojectionsgovernmenteducationpoliciesandinternationalstudentmobilityfigures.TheimpactofeducationalinnovationsandotherdevelopmentsaffectingtheworldpopulationincludingtheChinesegovernment’’spolicyofonebabyperfamilywerealsofactoredin. BasedonitsfindingsMr.GraddolhaspredictedthattheworldisabouttobehitbyatidalwaveofEnglish.ManygovernmentsespeciallyincountrieswhichhaverelativelyrecentlygainedindependenceareintroducingtheteachingofEnglishunderautilitarianbanner. ButEnglishpredominatesinthebusinessworldandforsuchcountriestobeabletocompeteforworkincludinglucrativeprofitableoutsourcingcontractsEnglishisbeingpushedheavilyfromkindergartenon. ThepotentialbonanzasourceofwealthonofferfromoutsourcingmeansevenmathsandsciencearebeingtaughtinEnglishatsecondaryschoolsinMalaysia.ButdemandforEnglishteachingwoulddropaschildrenprogressthroughacademiaandmoreuniversitiesacrosstheworldchoosetoteachinthelanguage. Mr.Graddolalsoestimatedthattheboomwouldbeoverby2050.English-languagestudentswillbedownfromtwobillionto500millionthenhesaidIncreasinglyasEnglishspreadacrosstheglobemorepeoplewillbecomebilingualevenmulti-lingualandsuchskillsarehighlyprizedinbusiness.ButBritainhasnotgotthebestreputationforlearningotherlanguages. ThereportalsoshowedthatEnglishwasnottheonlylanguagespreadingandtheworldfarfrombeingdominatedbyEnglishwastobecomemoremulti-lingual.Mr.GraddolsaidChineseArabicandSpanishareallpopularandlikelytobelanguagesofthefuture. Thewriterofthereportdeemsthatoutsourcingisto
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