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CurrentlytheAmericanarmedforcesarethelargestprofessionalmilitaryontheplanet.Other1haveprofessionalsoldiers2notasmanyastheUnitedStates.Forthousandsofyearsitwas3thatprofessionalsoldiersweresuperiorto4timers.But5mostofhistoryfewnationscould6anarmyofprofessionalsatleastnotonapermanentbasis.Itwasht7thelate20thcenturythatcountriesbeganto8largepermanentall-volunteerarmedforcesthatwerecarefully9andtrainedforcombat.Britainwasthefirstwhenitphasedoutconscriptionin1962.In1975theUnitedStatesfollowed10.Foroveracenturyconscriptionhasbeenseen11thewaytoremain12strongwithoutbreakingthebank.Buttheconscriptsdidnotstayinuniformlongenoughtogetreallygoodatfighting.BritainandAmericanwerethefirsttwonationstorealizethatconscriptionwasso13thatthevoterswouldpayextrato14aprofessionalforce.Withinadecadeanarmyofprofessionalsbeginstopay15.Theprofessionalsarenotonlymore16onthebattlefieldbutarealsoifcarefully17foreducationandaptitudemorelikelytoconstantlydevelopbetterwaysto18Thisproducesatremendousbattlefield19Itdoesn’tmakeyou20butitdoesmakeyouverydifficulttodefeat. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.9
Peopleoftenwonderwhyhistoriansgotosomuchtroubletopreservemillionsofbooksdocumentsandrecordsofthepast.WhydowehavelibrariesWhat1arethesedocumentsandthe2booksWhydowe3andsavetheactionsofmenthenegotiationsofstatesmenandthe4ofarmies Becausesometimesthevoiceofexperiencecan5ustostoplookandlisten.Andbecausesometimespastrecords6interpretedcangiveus7ofwhattodoandwhatnottodo. Ifwearetocreate8peaceforeverwemustseek9originsinhumanexperienceandintherecordofhuman10.Fromthestoryoftheendurancecourageand11ofmenandwomenwecreatetheinspirationofyouth.FromstoriesoftheChristianmenrightdowntoBudapest’sheroicmenoftodayhistoryrecordsthesufferingtheself-denialtheloyaltyandtheheroic12ofmen.Surelyfromtheserecordstherecancomehelptomankindinour13andperplexitiesandinouryearnings14peace. The15purposeofhistoryisabetterworld.Historygivesawarningtothosewhowould16war.History17inspirationtothosewhoseekpeace.18historyhelpsuslearn.Yesterday’srecordscankeepusfrom19yesterday’smistakes.Andfromthepiecesofmosaicassembledbyhistorianscometilegreatprintings20representtheprogressofmankind. Readthefollowingtext.Choosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmark[A][B][C]or[D]onANSWERSHEET1.10points15
CurrentlytheAmericanarmedforcesarethelargestprofessionalmilitaryontheplanet.Other1haveprofessionalsoldiers2notasmanyastheUnitedStates.Forthousandsofyearsitwas3thatprofessionalsoldiersweresuperiorto4timers.But5mostofhistoryfewnationscould6anarmyofprofessionalsatleastnotonapermanentbasis.Itwasht7thelate20thcenturythatcountriesbeganto8largepermanentall-volunteerarmedforcesthatwerecarefully9andtrainedforcombat.Britainwasthefirstwhenitphasedoutconscriptionin1962.In1975theUnitedStatesfollowed10.Foroveracenturyconscriptionhasbeenseen11thewaytoremain12strongwithoutbreakingthebank.Buttheconscriptsdidnotstayinuniformlongenoughtogetreallygoodatfighting.BritainandAmericanwerethefirsttwonationstorealizethatconscriptionwasso13thatthevoterswouldpayextrato14aprofessionalforce.Withinadecadeanarmyofprofessionalsbeginstopay15.Theprofessionalsarenotonlymore16onthebattlefieldbutarealsoifcarefully17foreducationandaptitudemorelikelytoconstantlydevelopbetterwaysto18Thisproducesatremendousbattlefield19Itdoesn’tmakeyou20butitdoesmakeyouverydifficulttodefeat. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.13
Peopleoftenwonderwhyhistoriansgotosomuchtroubletopreservemillionsofbooksdocumentsandrecordsofthepast.WhydowehavelibrariesWhat1arethesedocumentsandthe2booksWhydowe3andsavetheactionsofmenthenegotiationsofstatesmenandthe4ofarmies Becausesometimesthevoiceofexperiencecan5ustostoplookandlisten.Andbecausesometimespastrecords6interpretedcangiveus7ofwhattodoandwhatnottodo. Ifwearetocreate8peaceforeverwemustseek9originsinhumanexperienceandintherecordofhuman10.Fromthestoryoftheendurancecourageand11ofmenandwomenwecreatetheinspirationofyouth.FromstoriesoftheChristianmenrightdowntoBudapest’sheroicmenoftodayhistoryrecordsthesufferingtheself-denialtheloyaltyandtheheroic12ofmen.Surelyfromtheserecordstherecancomehelptomankindinour13andperplexitiesandinouryearnings14peace. The15purposeofhistoryisabetterworld.Historygivesawarningtothosewhowould16war.History17inspirationtothosewhoseekpeace.18historyhelpsuslearn.Yesterday’srecordscankeepusfrom19yesterday’smistakes.Andfromthepiecesofmosaicassembledbyhistorianscometilegreatprintings20representtheprogressofmankind. Readthefollowingtext.Choosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmark[A][B][C]or[D]onANSWERSHEET1.10points17
InagamethemovesaresetUpbeforehand.Inanon-gamesituationthemovesaresupposedtoariseoutofeventsasthesedevelop.Agirlwantstoencourageherboyfriendsoshepretendstobebusywhenhephonesherorshepretendsthatsomeoneelseiscourtingher.46Ayoungchildwhoisreluctanttogotobeddeliberatelyspillsmilkfromacupontothecarpetsothattheensuingfussandscoldingtheimmediacyofhisbedtimewillbeforgotten.Diplomatsataconferencemakeagreatfussovertheshapeofthetableastheyplaytheproceduralgame.47Anagentsellingthefilmrightsinafirstnovelcasuallymentionsotherpartieswhohaveshownaninterestinbuyingtherights.Ahostessdeliberatelyplacesaseductiveladynexttoahusbandwithajealouswife.Unionnegotiatorsgothrougharitualofcomplainsbeforesettingdowntodiscussthecurrentissue. Thecharacteristicofagameisthatasequenceofmovesarerecognizableaspartofthegame.Thegamemaybeplayedveryseriously;itmayalsobeplayedforapurposeratherthanasanendinitself.Neverthelesseachmoveinthesequenceisdeterminedbytherequirementsofthegameratherthantherealitiesofthesituationitself.48Someonewhoisawarethatagameisbeingplayedsitsbackandwaitsforthegametobeplayedout.Someonewhoisnotawarethatitisagamegetsinvolvedandmanipulatedbythegamesplayerwhoknowsthemovesofthegamebetter.Itisthisexpertiseinthemovesofthegamewhichmakesitworthplaying.Iftheplayerknowsfromlongexperiencethemovesreactionsandcounter-movesthenheonlyhastoenticetheotherpersontoplaythegametoachievesuccess.Ifthesituationworksitoutnaturallyneithersidehasanadvantage.Butifonesidesetsupagamewithwhichonlyheisfamiliarthenthatsideimmediatelyacquirestheadvantageofskillandfore-knowledge. Agoodgamesplayernotonlyknowshowtomakethenextmovehecanthinkonetwoorthreemovesahead.Thisisextremelydifficultforaninexperiencedplayer.49Thustheplayerwhosetsupafamiliargamecanlaytrapsseveralmovesaheadwithverylittlechanceoftheopponentnoticingwhatisbeingdone. 50Justasaphilosopherwillalwaystrytorunanargumentaccordingtohisowndefinitionssoagamesplayerwillalwaystrytomakeanopponentplayhisspecialgame. Thustheplayerwhosetsupafamiliargamecanlaytrapsseveralmovesaheadwithverylittlechanceoftheopponentnoticingwhatisbeingdone.
InagamethemovesaresetUpbeforehand.Inanon-gamesituationthemovesaresupposedtoariseoutofeventsasthesedevelop.Agirlwantstoencourageherboyfriendsoshepretendstobebusywhenhephonesherorshepretendsthatsomeoneelseiscourtingher.46Ayoungchildwhoisreluctanttogotobeddeliberatelyspillsmilkfromacupontothecarpetsothattheensuingfussandscoldingtheimmediacyofhisbedtimewillbeforgotten.Diplomatsataconferencemakeagreatfussovertheshapeofthetableastheyplaytheproceduralgame.47Anagentsellingthefilmrightsinafirstnovelcasuallymentionsotherpartieswhohaveshownaninterestinbuyingtherights.Ahostessdeliberatelyplacesaseductiveladynexttoahusbandwithajealouswife.Unionnegotiatorsgothrougharitualofcomplainsbeforesettingdowntodiscussthecurrentissue. Thecharacteristicofagameisthatasequenceofmovesarerecognizableaspartofthegame.Thegamemaybeplayedveryseriously;itmayalsobeplayedforapurposeratherthanasanendinitself.Neverthelesseachmoveinthesequenceisdeterminedbytherequirementsofthegameratherthantherealitiesofthesituationitself.48Someonewhoisawarethatagameisbeingplayedsitsbackandwaitsforthegametobeplayedout.Someonewhoisnotawarethatitisagamegetsinvolvedandmanipulatedbythegamesplayerwhoknowsthemovesofthegamebetter.Itisthisexpertiseinthemovesofthegamewhichmakesitworthplaying.Iftheplayerknowsfromlongexperiencethemovesreactionsandcounter-movesthenheonlyhastoenticetheotherpersontoplaythegametoachievesuccess.Ifthesituationworksitoutnaturallyneithersidehasanadvantage.Butifonesidesetsupagamewithwhichonlyheisfamiliarthenthatsideimmediatelyacquirestheadvantageofskillandfore-knowledge. Agoodgamesplayernotonlyknowshowtomakethenextmovehecanthinkonetwoorthreemovesahead.Thisisextremelydifficultforaninexperiencedplayer.49Thustheplayerwhosetsupafamiliargamecanlaytrapsseveralmovesaheadwithverylittlechanceoftheopponentnoticingwhatisbeingdone. 50Justasaphilosopherwillalwaystrytorunanargumentaccordingtohisowndefinitionssoagamesplayerwillalwaystrytomakeanopponentplayhisspecialgame. Anagentsellingthefilmrightsinafirstnovelcasuallymentionsotherpartieswhohaveshownaninterestinbuyingtherights
CurrentlytheAmericanarmedforcesarethelargestprofessionalmilitaryontheplanet.Other1haveprofessionalsoldiers2notasmanyastheUnitedStates.Forthousandsofyearsitwas3thatprofessionalsoldiersweresuperiorto4timers.But5mostofhistoryfewnationscould6anarmyofprofessionalsatleastnotonapermanentbasis.Itwasht7thelate20thcenturythatcountriesbeganto8largepermanentall-volunteerarmedforcesthatwerecarefully9andtrainedforcombat.Britainwasthefirstwhenitphasedoutconscriptionin1962.In1975theUnitedStatesfollowed10.Foroveracenturyconscriptionhasbeenseen11thewaytoremain12strongwithoutbreakingthebank.Buttheconscriptsdidnotstayinuniformlongenoughtogetreallygoodatfighting.BritainandAmericanwerethefirsttwonationstorealizethatconscriptionwasso13thatthevoterswouldpayextrato14aprofessionalforce.Withinadecadeanarmyofprofessionalsbeginstopay15.Theprofessionalsarenotonlymore16onthebattlefieldbutarealsoifcarefully17foreducationandaptitudemorelikelytoconstantlydevelopbetterwaysto18Thisproducesatremendousbattlefield19Itdoesn’tmakeyou20butitdoesmakeyouverydifficulttodefeat. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.15
CurrentlytheAmericanarmedforcesarethelargestprofessionalmilitaryontheplanet.Other1haveprofessionalsoldiers2notasmanyastheUnitedStates.Forthousandsofyearsitwas3thatprofessionalsoldiersweresuperiorto4timers.But5mostofhistoryfewnationscould6anarmyofprofessionalsatleastnotonapermanentbasis.Itwasht7thelate20thcenturythatcountriesbeganto8largepermanentall-volunteerarmedforcesthatwerecarefully9andtrainedforcombat.Britainwasthefirstwhenitphasedoutconscriptionin1962.In1975theUnitedStatesfollowed10.Foroveracenturyconscriptionhasbeenseen11thewaytoremain12strongwithoutbreakingthebank.Buttheconscriptsdidnotstayinuniformlongenoughtogetreallygoodatfighting.BritainandAmericanwerethefirsttwonationstorealizethatconscriptionwasso13thatthevoterswouldpayextrato14aprofessionalforce.Withinadecadeanarmyofprofessionalsbeginstopay15.Theprofessionalsarenotonlymore16onthebattlefieldbutarealsoifcarefully17foreducationandaptitudemorelikelytoconstantlydevelopbetterwaysto18Thisproducesatremendousbattlefield19Itdoesn’tmakeyou20butitdoesmakeyouverydifficulttodefeat. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.19
CurrentlytheAmericanarmedforcesarethelargestprofessionalmilitaryontheplanet.Other1haveprofessionalsoldiers2notasmanyastheUnitedStates.Forthousandsofyearsitwas3thatprofessionalsoldiersweresuperiorto4timers.But5mostofhistoryfewnationscould6anarmyofprofessionalsatleastnotonapermanentbasis.Itwasht7thelate20thcenturythatcountriesbeganto8largepermanentall-volunteerarmedforcesthatwerecarefully9andtrainedforcombat.Britainwasthefirstwhenitphasedoutconscriptionin1962.In1975theUnitedStatesfollowed10.Foroveracenturyconscriptionhasbeenseen11thewaytoremain12strongwithoutbreakingthebank.Buttheconscriptsdidnotstayinuniformlongenoughtogetreallygoodatfighting.BritainandAmericanwerethefirsttwonationstorealizethatconscriptionwasso13thatthevoterswouldpayextrato14aprofessionalforce.Withinadecadeanarmyofprofessionalsbeginstopay15.Theprofessionalsarenotonlymore16onthebattlefieldbutarealsoifcarefully17foreducationandaptitudemorelikelytoconstantlydevelopbetterwaysto18Thisproducesatremendousbattlefield19Itdoesn’tmakeyou20butitdoesmakeyouverydifficulttodefeat. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.17
CurrentlytheAmericanarmedforcesarethelargestprofessionalmilitaryontheplanet.Other1haveprofessionalsoldiers2notasmanyastheUnitedStates.Forthousandsofyearsitwas3thatprofessionalsoldiersweresuperiorto4timers.But5mostofhistoryfewnationscould6anarmyofprofessionalsatleastnotonapermanentbasis.Itwasht7thelate20thcenturythatcountriesbeganto8largepermanentall-volunteerarmedforcesthatwerecarefully9andtrainedforcombat.Britainwasthefirstwhenitphasedoutconscriptionin1962.In1975theUnitedStatesfollowed10.Foroveracenturyconscriptionhasbeenseen11thewaytoremain12strongwithoutbreakingthebank.Buttheconscriptsdidnotstayinuniformlongenoughtogetreallygoodatfighting.BritainandAmericanwerethefirsttwonationstorealizethatconscriptionwasso13thatthevoterswouldpayextrato14aprofessionalforce.Withinadecadeanarmyofprofessionalsbeginstopay15.Theprofessionalsarenotonlymore16onthebattlefieldbutarealsoifcarefully17foreducationandaptitudemorelikelytoconstantlydevelopbetterwaysto18Thisproducesatremendousbattlefield19Itdoesn’tmakeyou20butitdoesmakeyouverydifficulttodefeat. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.7
CurrentlytheAmericanarmedforcesarethelargestprofessionalmilitaryontheplanet.Other1haveprofessionalsoldiers2notasmanyastheUnitedStates.Forthousandsofyearsitwas3thatprofessionalsoldiersweresuperiorto4timers.But5mostofhistoryfewnationscould6anarmyofprofessionalsatleastnotonapermanentbasis.Itwasht7thelate20thcenturythatcountriesbeganto8largepermanentall-volunteerarmedforcesthatwerecarefully9andtrainedforcombat.Britainwasthefirstwhenitphasedoutconscriptionin1962.In1975theUnitedStatesfollowed10.Foroveracenturyconscriptionhasbeenseen11thewaytoremain12strongwithoutbreakingthebank.Buttheconscriptsdidnotstayinuniformlongenoughtogetreallygoodatfighting.BritainandAmericanwerethefirsttwonationstorealizethatconscriptionwasso13thatthevoterswouldpayextrato14aprofessionalforce.Withinadecadeanarmyofprofessionalsbeginstopay15.Theprofessionalsarenotonlymore16onthebattlefieldbutarealsoifcarefully17foreducationandaptitudemorelikelytoconstantlydevelopbetterwaysto18Thisproducesatremendousbattlefield19Itdoesn’tmakeyou20butitdoesmakeyouverydifficulttodefeat. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.5
Peopleoftenwonderwhyhistoriansgotosomuchtroubletopreservemillionsofbooksdocumentsandrecordsofthepast.WhydowehavelibrariesWhat1arethesedocumentsandthe2booksWhydowe3andsavetheactionsofmenthenegotiationsofstatesmenandthe4ofarmies Becausesometimesthevoiceofexperiencecan5ustostoplookandlisten.Andbecausesometimespastrecords6interpretedcangiveus7ofwhattodoandwhatnottodo. Ifwearetocreate8peaceforeverwemustseek9originsinhumanexperienceandintherecordofhuman10.Fromthestoryoftheendurancecourageand11ofmenandwomenwecreatetheinspirationofyouth.FromstoriesoftheChristianmenrightdowntoBudapest’sheroicmenoftodayhistoryrecordsthesufferingtheself-denialtheloyaltyandtheheroic12ofmen.Surelyfromtheserecordstherecancomehelptomankindinour13andperplexitiesandinouryearnings14peace. The15purposeofhistoryisabetterworld.Historygivesawarningtothosewhowould16war.History17inspirationtothosewhoseekpeace.18historyhelpsuslearn.Yesterday’srecordscankeepusfrom19yesterday’smistakes.Andfromthepiecesofmosaicassembledbyhistorianscometilegreatprintings20representtheprogressofmankind. Readthefollowingtext.Choosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmark[A][B][C]or[D]onANSWERSHEET1.10points19
Backin1979afatunhealthypropertydeveloperMelZuckermanandhisexercise-fanaticwifeEnidopenedCanyonRanch"America’sfirsttotalvacation/fitnessresort"onanoldduderanchinTucsonArizona.Atthetimetheiroutdoorsynewage-ishventureseemedhighlyeccentric.TodayCanyonRanchisarguablythepremiumhealth-spabrandofchoiceforthesuper-rich.ItisgrowingfastandnowoperatesinseveralplacesincludingtheQueenMary2.41. "Thereisanewmarketcategorycalledwellnesslifestyleandinawholerangeofindustriesifyouarenotaddressingthatcategoryyouaregoingtofinditincreasinglyhardtostayinbusiness"enthusesKevinKellyCanyonRanch’spresident.ThisbroadnewcategoryMr.Kellygoeson"consolidatesalotofsub-categories"includingspastraditionalmedicineandalternativemedicinebehaviouraltherapyspiritualityfitnessnutritionandbeauty.42."Youcannolongersatisfytheconsumerwithjustfitnessjustmedicaljustspa"saysMr.Kelly. CanyonRanch’sstrategyreflectsthisbelief.43.ThisyearinMiamiBeachitwillopenthefirstofwhatitexpectstobemanyupmarkethousingestatesbuiltaroundaspacalledCanyonRanchLiving.TogetherwiththeClevelandCliniconeoftheworld’sleadingprivateprovidersoftraditionalmedicineitislaunchingan"executivehealth"productwhichcombinesdiagnosistreatmentandaboveallprevention.Italsohasplanstoproducefoodandskin-careproductsarangeofclothesandhealthy-livingeducationalmaterials. 44.Mr.Casereckonsthatoneoftherootsoftoday’shealth-carecrisisespeciallyinAmericaisthatpreventionandcarearenotsuitablyjoinedup.Agrowingnumberofemployersnowpromotewellnessatworkbothtocutcostsandtoreducestressandhealth-relatedabsenteeismsaysJonDenorisofCatalystHealthagymbusinessinLondon.HehasbeenhelpingtheBritisharmofHarleyDavidsonamotorbike-makertodevelopawellnessprogrammeforitsworkers. Thedesiretoreducehealth-carecostsisoneforcebehindtheriseofthewellnessindustry;theotheristhegrowingdemandfromconsumersforthingsthatmakethemfeelhealthier.SurveysfindthatthreeoutoffouradultAmericansnowfeelthattheirlivesare"outofbalance"saysMr.Kelly.Sothereisahugeopportunitytoofferthemproductsandservicesthatmakethemfeelmore"balanced."ThisrepresentsabigchangeinconsumerpsychologyclaimsMr.Kellyandonethatislikelytodeepenovertime:marketresearchsuggeststhat35-year-oldshaveamuchstrongerdesiretoleadhealthylifestylesthan65-year-olds. 45.Anotherwillbetomaintaincredibilityinandforanindustrythatcombinesserioussciencewithsnakeoil.Oneproblem—orisitanopportunity—insellingwellnessproductstoconsumersisthatsomeofthethingstheydemandmaybefaddishornonsensical.Easyfixessuchasnew-agetherapiesmayappealtothemmorethanharderbutprovenwaystoimprovehealth. OneofCanyonRanch’sanswerstothisproblemhasbeentohireRichardCarmonawhowasAmerica’ssurgeon-generaluntillastsummer.Inthatrolehemovedpreventionandwellnessnearertothecentreofpublic-healthpolicy.Thelasttimeasurgeon-generalventuredintobusinessitendeddisastrously:duringtheinternetbubbleEverettKooplaunchedDrKoop.comamedical-informationsitethatwentbustshortlyaftergoingpublicandachievingamarketcapitalisationofover$1billion.Thistimearoundthewellnessboomseemsunlikelytosuffersuchanastyturnfortheworse. [A]Itisexpandingabrandbuilton$I000-a-nightretreatsfortherichandfamousinseveraldifferentdirections. [B]Mr.Zuckermannowatrimandsprightly78-year-oldremainschairmanofthefirm. [C]Thereisgrowingevidencethatfocusingholisticallyonwellnesscanreducehealth-carecostsbyemphasizingpreventionovertreatment. [D]Onedifficultyforwellnessfirmswillbeacquiringtheexpertisetooperateinseveraldifferentareasofthemarket. [E]Itisalsooneoftheleadinglightsin"wellness"anincreasinglymainstream—andprofitable—business. [F]Asmorecustomersdemandaholisticapproachtofeelingwellfirmsthathavehithertospecialisedinonlyoneortwoofthoseareasarenowfacinggrowingmarketpressuretobroadentheirbusiness. [G]Andthereismuchdebateaboutthehealthbenefitsofvitaminsupplementsorganicfoodandalternativemedicinesletalonedifferentformsofspirituality. 43
Backin1979afatunhealthypropertydeveloperMelZuckermanandhisexercise-fanaticwifeEnidopenedCanyonRanch"America’sfirsttotalvacation/fitnessresort"onanoldduderanchinTucsonArizona.Atthetimetheiroutdoorsynewage-ishventureseemedhighlyeccentric.TodayCanyonRanchisarguablythepremiumhealth-spabrandofchoiceforthesuper-rich.ItisgrowingfastandnowoperatesinseveralplacesincludingtheQueenMary2.41. "Thereisanewmarketcategorycalledwellnesslifestyleandinawholerangeofindustriesifyouarenotaddressingthatcategoryyouaregoingtofinditincreasinglyhardtostayinbusiness"enthusesKevinKellyCanyonRanch’spresident.ThisbroadnewcategoryMr.Kellygoeson"consolidatesalotofsub-categories"includingspastraditionalmedicineandalternativemedicinebehaviouraltherapyspiritualityfitnessnutritionandbeauty.42."Youcannolongersatisfytheconsumerwithjustfitnessjustmedicaljustspa"saysMr.Kelly. CanyonRanch’sstrategyreflectsthisbelief.43.ThisyearinMiamiBeachitwillopenthefirstofwhatitexpectstobemanyupmarkethousingestatesbuiltaroundaspacalledCanyonRanchLiving.TogetherwiththeClevelandCliniconeoftheworld’sleadingprivateprovidersoftraditionalmedicineitislaunchingan"executivehealth"productwhichcombinesdiagnosistreatmentandaboveallprevention.Italsohasplanstoproducefoodandskin-careproductsarangeofclothesandhealthy-livingeducationalmaterials. 44.Mr.Casereckonsthatoneoftherootsoftoday’shealth-carecrisisespeciallyinAmericaisthatpreventionandcarearenotsuitablyjoinedup.Agrowingnumberofemployersnowpromotewellnessatworkbothtocutcostsandtoreducestressandhealth-relatedabsenteeismsaysJonDenorisofCatalystHealthagymbusinessinLondon.HehasbeenhelpingtheBritisharmofHarleyDavidsonamotorbike-makertodevelopawellnessprogrammeforitsworkers. Thedesiretoreducehealth-carecostsisoneforcebehindtheriseofthewellnessindustry;theotheristhegrowingdemandfromconsumersforthingsthatmakethemfeelhealthier.SurveysfindthatthreeoutoffouradultAmericansnowfeelthattheirlivesare"outofbalance"saysMr.Kelly.Sothereisahugeopportunitytoofferthemproductsandservicesthatmakethemfeelmore"balanced."ThisrepresentsabigchangeinconsumerpsychologyclaimsMr.Kellyandonethatislikelytodeepenovertime:marketresearchsuggeststhat35-year-oldshaveamuchstrongerdesiretoleadhealthylifestylesthan65-year-olds. 45.Anotherwillbetomaintaincredibilityinandforanindustrythatcombinesserioussciencewithsnakeoil.Oneproblem—orisitanopportunity—insellingwellnessproductstoconsumersisthatsomeofthethingstheydemandmaybefaddishornonsensical.Easyfixessuchasnew-agetherapiesmayappealtothemmorethanharderbutprovenwaystoimprovehealth. OneofCanyonRanch’sanswerstothisproblemhasbeentohireRichardCarmonawhowasAmerica’ssurgeon-generaluntillastsummer.Inthatrolehemovedpreventionandwellnessnearertothecentreofpublic-healthpolicy.Thelasttimeasurgeon-generalventuredintobusinessitendeddisastrously:duringtheinternetbubbleEverettKooplaunchedDrKoop.comamedical-informationsitethatwentbustshortlyaftergoingpublicandachievingamarketcapitalisationofover$1billion.Thistimearoundthewellnessboomseemsunlikelytosuffersuchanastyturnfortheworse. [A]Itisexpandingabrandbuilton$I000-a-nightretreatsfortherichandfamousinseveraldifferentdirections. [B]Mr.Zuckermannowatrimandsprightly78-year-oldremainschairmanofthefirm. [C]Thereisgrowingevidencethatfocusingholisticallyonwellnesscanreducehealth-carecostsbyemphasizingpreventionovertreatment. [D]Onedifficultyforwellnessfirmswillbeacquiringtheexpertisetooperateinseveraldifferentareasofthemarket. [E]Itisalsooneoftheleadinglightsin"wellness"anincreasinglymainstream—andprofitable—business. [F]Asmorecustomersdemandaholisticapproachtofeelingwellfirmsthathavehithertospecialisedinonlyoneortwoofthoseareasarenowfacinggrowingmarketpressuretobroadentheirbusiness. [G]Andthereismuchdebateaboutthehealthbenefitsofvitaminsupplementsorganicfoodandalternativemedicinesletalonedifferentformsofspirituality. 41
Directions:Yougotsickjusttwoweeksbeforethefinalexaminationandweresenttohospital.Onedoctortreatedyouverywellandyourecoveredsoon.WritealetterofappreciationtothedoctorMs.Green.Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter.UseLiMinginstead.Donotwritetheaddress.10points
TheAmericanscreenhaslongbeenasmokyplaceatleastsince1942’sNowVoyagerinwhichBetteDavisandPaulHenreidshowedhowtomakeandsealaromanticdealoverapairofcigarettesthatweresmolderingasmuchasthestars.Todaycigarettesaremorecommononscreenthanatanyothertimesincemidcentury:75%ofallHollywoodfilms—including36%ofthoseratedGorPG—showtobaccouseaccordingtoa2006surveybytheUniversityofCaliforniaSanFrancisco.Audiencesespeciallykidsaretakingnotice.TworecentstudiespublishedinLancetandPediatricshavefoundthatamongchildrenasyoungas10thoseexposedtothemostscreensmokingareupto2.7timesaslikelyasotherstopickupthehabit.Worseit’stheonesfromnonsmokinghomeswhoarehitthehardest.NowtheHarvardSchoolofPublicHealthHSPH—thefolksbehindthedesignated-drivercampaign—arepushingtogetthesmokesoffthescreen.Somemoviesshowkidsupto14incidentsofsmokingperhoursaysBarryBloomHSPH’sdean.We’reinthebusinessofpreventingdiseaseandcigarettesaretheNo.1preventablecause.Harvardlongbelievedthatgettingcigarettesoutofmoviescouldhaveaspowerfulaneffectbutitwouldn’tbeeasy.Cigarettemakershadahistoryofstrikingproduct-placementdealswithHollywoodandwhilethe1998tobaccosettlementpreventsthatnothingstopsdirectorsfromincorporatingsmokingintoscenesontheirown.In1999Harvardbeganholdingone-on-onemeetingswithstudioexecstryingtochangethatandlastyeartheMotionPictureAssociationofAmericaflungthedooropeninvitingBloomtomakeapresentationinFebruarytoallthestudios.Harvard’sadvicewasdirect:Getthebuttsentirelyoutoratleastmakesmokingunappealing.Afewfilmsprovideaglimpseofwhatano-smokingorlow-smokingHollywoodwouldbelike.ProducerLindsayDoranwhooncehelpedpersuadedirectorJohnHughestokeepFerrisBuellersmoke-freeinthe1980shitwantedtodethesamefortheleadsofher2006movieStrangerThanFiction.WhenawriterconvincedherthatthecharacterplayedbyEmmaThompsonhadtosmokeDoranrelentedbutfromthewayThompsonhacksherwaythroughthefilmandsnuffsouthercigarettesinapalmfulofspitit’scleartheglamour’sgone.AndrememberallthesmokinginTheDevilWearsPradaNoThat’sbecausetheproducersofthatfilmkeptitoutentirely—eveninastorythattravelsfromtheUSfashionworldtoParistwoofthemosttobacco-happyplacesonearth.NoonesmokedinthatmoviesaysDoranandnoonenoticed.Suchmoviesarehardlytherulebutthepressureisgrowing.Likesmokersstudiosmayconcludethatquittingthehabitisnotjustalothealthierbutalsoalotsmarter.What’stheauthor’sattitudetowardgettingcigarettesoutofscreen
ForthepasttwoyearsinSiliconValleythecentreofAmerica’stechnologyindustryconference-goershaveentertainedthemselvesplayingaguessinggame:howmanytimeswillaspeakermentionthephraselongtailItisusuallyahighnumberthankstotheinfluenceofthelong-tailtheorywhichwasfirstdevelopedbyChrisAndersontheeditorofWiredmagazineinanarticlein2004.Thoughtechnologistsandbloggerschuckleathoweverybusinesspresentationnowhastohaveitslong-tailsectionmostareenviousofMr.Andersonwhosebrainwavequicklybecamethemostfashionablebusinessideaaround.Whetherablockbusterfilmabestsellingnovelorachart-toppingrapsongpopularcultureidolisesthehit.Companiesdevotethemselvestocreatingthembecausethecostofdistributionandthelimitsofshelfspaceinphysicalshopsmeanthatprofitabilitydependsonahighvolumeofsales.Butaroundthebeginningofthiscenturyagroupofinternetcompaniesrealisedthatwithendlessshelvesandanationaloreveninternationalaudienceonlinetheycouldofferahugerangeofproducts—andmakemoneyatthesametime.ThenichetheobscureandthespecialistMr.Andersonargueswillgaingroundattheexpenseofthehit.Asevidencehepointstoadropinthenumberofcompaniesthattraditionallycalculatetheirrevenue/salesratioaccordingtothe80/20rule—wherethetopfifthofproductscontributefour-fifthsofrevenues.EcastaSanFranciscodigitaljukeboxcompanyfoundthat98%ofits10000albumssoldatleastonetrackeverythreemonths.ExpressedinthelanguageofstatisticstheexperiencesofEcastandothercompaniessuchasAragonanonlinebooksellersuggestthatproductsdowninthelongtailofastatisticaldistributionaddedtogethercanbehighlyprofitable.Theinternethelpspeoplefindtheirwaytorelativelyobscurematerialwithrecommendationsandreviewsbyotherpeopleandforthosewillingtohavetheirartistictastespredictedbyapieceofsoftwarecomputerprogramswhichanalysepastselections.Long-tailenthusiastsarguethatthewholeofculturewillbenefitnotjustcommercialenterprises.Televisionfilmandmusicaresuchbewitchingmediaintheirownrightthatmanypeoplearequitehappytowatchandlistentowhatthemainstreamprovides.Butifindividualshavetheopportunitytopickbettermoreideallysuitedentertainmentfromafarwiderselectiontheywilltakeitaccordingtothetheoryofthelongtail.SomeanalystsreckonthatentirepopulationsmightbecomehappierandwiseroncetheyhaveaccesstothousandsofdocumentariesindependentfilmsandsubgenresofeverykindofmusicinsteadofbeingsubjectedtowhatMr.Andersoncallsthetyrannyoflowest-common-denominatorfare.Thatmightbetakingthingsabitfar.Butthelongtailiscertainlyoneoftheinternet’sbettergiftstohumanity.Inthefirstparagraphtheauthormentionedtheconference-goers’guessinggamehewantstoshow
Germany’schimneysweeps—hallowedasbringersofgoodluckwiththeirblacktophatsandcoiled-wirebrushes—areunderattack.LastweektheEuropeanCommission’sdirectoratefortheinternalmarketrevivedproceedingsagainstanantiquatedGermanlawthatprotectssweepsagainstcompetition.Thecountry’schimneysweepsenjoyanear-perfectmonopoly.Germanyisdividedintoaround8000districtseachruledbyitsownmastersweepwhousuallyemploystwomoresweeps.Althoughthisisaprivateenterprisethemaintenanceandinspectionserviceprovidediscompulsoryandpricesaresetbythelocalauthority:sweepscannotstrayoutsidetheirdistrictnorcanhouseholderschangetheirsweepeveniftheyloathehim.Thisrulecutsbothways.TherearesomecustomersIcan’tstandeithersaysoneFrankfurtsweep.Therationaleissimple:chimney-sweepingandrelatedgasandheatingmaintenanceinGermanyaretreatedasamatterofpublicsafety.Annualorsemi-annualvisitsareprescribedkeepingthesweepsbusyallyearround.Forcenturieschimney-sweepsinEuropewereawanderingbreed.Butin1937thechimney-sweeplawwasrevisedbyHeinrichHimmlerthentheactinginteriorminister.HisrolestiedchimneysweepstotheirdistrictsanddecreedthattheyshouldbeGermantoenablehimtousesweepsaslocalspies.Thelawwasupdatedin1969leavingthelocalmonopoliesinplacebutopeninguptheprofessionintheoryatleasttonon-Germans.Butinpracticefewapply.FouryearsagoabravePolequalifiedasamasterinKaiserslauternaccordingtoafellowstudentandthisyearanItaliandidsointheRhinelandPalatinate.ButhelikemostnewlyqualifiedGermanmasterswillspendyearsonawaitinglistbeforehegetshisowndistrict.TheEuropeanCommissionwouldliketoseeacompetitivemarketinwhichpeoplecanchoosetheirownsweepsjustastheychoosebuildersorplumbers.Itfirstopenedinfringementproceedingsin2003andtheGermangovernmentofthetimepromisedtochangethelawbutfailedtodoso.AnddespitethehuffingandpuffingfromBrusselstilegovernmentisstillreluctanttodismantleitsantiquatedsystemonsafetygrounds.Thenumberofdeathsfromcarbon-monoxidepoisoninginGermanyisaroundone-tenththatinFranceorBelgiumclaimstheFrankfurtsweep.SoGermansarelikelytobestockwiththeirneighbourhoodSchornsteinfegers—whethertheycanstandeachotherornot—forsometimetocome.What’stheauthor’sattitudetowardtheanti-monopolyofchimneysweepinginGermany
ForthepasttwoyearsinSiliconValleythecentreofAmerica’stechnologyindustryconference-goershaveentertainedthemselvesplayingaguessinggame:howmanytimeswillaspeakermentionthephraselongtailItisusuallyahighnumberthankstotheinfluenceofthelong-tailtheorywhichwasfirstdevelopedbyChrisAndersontheeditorofWiredmagazineinanarticlein2004.Thoughtechnologistsandbloggerschuckleathoweverybusinesspresentationnowhastohaveitslong-tailsectionmostareenviousofMr.Andersonwhosebrainwavequicklybecamethemostfashionablebusinessideaaround.Whetherablockbusterfilmabestsellingnovelorachart-toppingrapsongpopularcultureidolisesthehit.Companiesdevotethemselvestocreatingthembecausethecostofdistributionandthelimitsofshelfspaceinphysicalshopsmeanthatprofitabilitydependsonahighvolumeofsales.Butaroundthebeginningofthiscenturyagroupofinternetcompaniesrealisedthatwithendlessshelvesandanationaloreveninternationalaudienceonlinetheycouldofferahugerangeofproducts—andmakemoneyatthesametime.ThenichetheobscureandthespecialistMr.Andersonargueswillgaingroundattheexpenseofthehit.Asevidencehepointstoadropinthenumberofcompaniesthattraditionallycalculatetheirrevenue/salesratioaccordingtothe80/20rule—wherethetopfifthofproductscontributefour-fifthsofrevenues.EcastaSanFranciscodigitaljukeboxcompanyfoundthat98%ofits10000albumssoldatleastonetrackeverythreemonths.ExpressedinthelanguageofstatisticstheexperiencesofEcastandothercompaniessuchasAragonanonlinebooksellersuggestthatproductsdowninthelongtailofastatisticaldistributionaddedtogethercanbehighlyprofitable.Theinternethelpspeoplefindtheirwaytorelativelyobscurematerialwithrecommendationsandreviewsbyotherpeopleandforthosewillingtohavetheirartistictastespredictedbyapieceofsoftwarecomputerprogramswhichanalysepastselections.Long-tailenthusiastsarguethatthewholeofculturewillbenefitnotjustcommercialenterprises.Televisionfilmandmusicaresuchbewitchingmediaintheirownrightthatmanypeoplearequitehappytowatchandlistentowhatthemainstreamprovides.Butifindividualshavetheopportunitytopickbettermoreideallysuitedentertainmentfromafarwiderselectiontheywilltakeitaccordingtothetheoryofthelongtail.SomeanalystsreckonthatentirepopulationsmightbecomehappierandwiseroncetheyhaveaccesstothousandsofdocumentariesindependentfilmsandsubgenresofeverykindofmusicinsteadofbeingsubjectedtowhatMr.Andersoncallsthetyrannyoflowest-common-denominatorfare.Thatmightbetakingthingsabitfar.Butthelongtailiscertainlyoneoftheinternet’sbettergiftstohumanity.What’sthemainideaofthispassage
Backin1979afatunhealthypropertydeveloperMelZuckermanandhisexercise-fanaticwifeEnidopenedCanyonRanch"America’sfirsttotalvacation/fitnessresort"onanoldduderanchinTucsonArizona.Atthetimetheiroutdoorsynewage-ishventureseemedhighlyeccentric.TodayCanyonRanchisarguablythepremiumhealth-spabrandofchoiceforthesuper-rich.ItisgrowingfastandnowoperatesinseveralplacesincludingtheQueenMary2.41. "Thereisanewmarketcategorycalledwellnesslifestyleandinawholerangeofindustriesifyouarenotaddressingthatcategoryyouaregoingtofinditincreasinglyhardtostayinbusiness"enthusesKevinKellyCanyonRanch’spresident.ThisbroadnewcategoryMr.Kellygoeson"consolidatesalotofsub-categories"includingspastraditionalmedicineandalternativemedicinebehaviouraltherapyspiritualityfitnessnutritionandbeauty.42."Youcannolongersatisfytheconsumerwithjustfitnessjustmedicaljustspa"saysMr.Kelly. CanyonRanch’sstrategyreflectsthisbelief.43.ThisyearinMiamiBeachitwillopenthefirstofwhatitexpectstobemanyupmarkethousingestatesbuiltaroundaspacalledCanyonRanchLiving.TogetherwiththeClevelandCliniconeoftheworld’sleadingprivateprovidersoftraditionalmedicineitislaunchingan"executivehealth"productwhichcombinesdiagnosistreatmentandaboveallprevention.Italsohasplanstoproducefoodandskin-careproductsarangeofclothesandhealthy-livingeducationalmaterials. 44.Mr.Casereckonsthatoneoftherootsoftoday’shealth-carecrisisespeciallyinAmericaisthatpreventionandcarearenotsuitablyjoinedup.Agrowingnumberofemployersnowpromotewellnessatworkbothtocutcostsandtoreducestressandhealth-relatedabsenteeismsaysJonDenorisofCatalystHealthagymbusinessinLondon.HehasbeenhelpingtheBritisharmofHarleyDavidsonamotorbike-makertodevelopawellnessprogrammeforitsworkers. Thedesiretoreducehealth-carecostsisoneforcebehindtheriseofthewellnessindustry;theotheristhegrowingdemandfromconsumersforthingsthatmakethemfeelhealthier.SurveysfindthatthreeoutoffouradultAmericansnowfeelthattheirlivesare"outofbalance"saysMr.Kelly.Sothereisahugeopportunitytoofferthemproductsandservicesthatmakethemfeelmore"balanced."ThisrepresentsabigchangeinconsumerpsychologyclaimsMr.Kellyandonethatislikelytodeepenovertime:marketresearchsuggeststhat35-year-oldshaveamuchstrongerdesiretoleadhealthylifestylesthan65-year-olds. 45.Anotherwillbetomaintaincredibilityinandforanindustrythatcombinesserioussciencewithsnakeoil.Oneproblem—orisitanopportunity—insellingwellnessproductstoconsumersisthatsomeofthethingstheydemandmaybefaddishornonsensical.Easyfixessuchasnew-agetherapiesmayappealtothemmorethanharderbutprovenwaystoimprovehealth. OneofCanyonRanch’sanswerstothisproblemhasbeentohireRichardCarmonawhowasAmerica’ssurgeon-generaluntillastsummer.Inthatrolehemovedpreventionandwellnessnearertothecentreofpublic-healthpolicy.Thelasttimeasurgeon-generalventuredintobusinessitendeddisastrously:duringtheinternetbubbleEverettKooplaunchedDrKoop.comamedical-informationsitethatwentbustshortlyaftergoingpublicandachievingamarketcapitalisationofover$1billion.Thistimearoundthewellnessboomseemsunlikelytosuffersuchanastyturnfortheworse. [A]Itisexpandingabrandbuilton$I000-a-nightretreatsfortherichandfamousinseveraldifferentdirections. [B]Mr.Zuckermannowatrimandsprightly78-year-oldremainschairmanofthefirm. [C]Thereisgrowingevidencethatfocusingholisticallyonwellnesscanreducehealth-carecostsbyemphasizingpreventionovertreatment. [D]Onedifficultyforwellnessfirmswillbeacquiringtheexpertisetooperateinseveraldifferentareasofthemarket. [E]Itisalsooneoftheleadinglightsin"wellness"anincreasinglymainstream—andprofitable—business. [F]Asmorecustomersdemandaholisticapproachtofeelingwellfirmsthathavehithertospecialisedinonlyoneortwoofthoseareasarenowfacinggrowingmarketpressuretobroadentheirbusiness. [G]Andthereismuchdebateaboutthehealthbenefitsofvitaminsupplementsorganicfoodandalternativemedicinesletalonedifferentformsofspirituality. 45
Aswithmanyagrown-upsportingstarthefirsthintofgreatnesscameatanearlyageforLewisHamilton.Asaneight-year-oldathisfirstkartracehechargedmorelikeamaturedriverthananoviceremembersMartinHinesowneroftheZipKartracingcompany.ScythinghiswaythroughthefieldjustoutsideLondonHamiltonhadaconfidentstylethatseemeddifferentfromnormalrookiesHinessays.Therewasalittlesparkabouthim.Now22andinhisdebutseasoninFormulaOne—hebecamethefirstblackdrivertomakeitontothegridinmotorracing’sblue-ribbonchampionship.HissuccessandprofilethathaveearnedyoungHamiltoncomparisonswithothersportinggreats.Hiscolor—Hamilton’sgrandfathercametoBritainfromGrenadainthe50s—andthepositiveinfluenceofhisfatherAnthonyhavedrawnparallelswithTigerWoods.Hamiltonacknowledgesthathisparticipationcouldstokeinterestamongethnicgroupswhomaynotbeintothesportnow.Hopefullypeoplethatcanrelatetomewillseethatit’spossibleandalsotrytogetintothesporthetoldtheBBC.Moreoverhisyouthgoodlooksandwholesomeimagearealsolikelytogetmarketersfiredup.Countlessmorekartingtitlesfollowedbefore2001.HemadeseasoneddriverslooksillysaysTonyShawHamilton’sthenteammanageratManorMotorsport.Hamilton’srawnaturalspeedandcannyracecraftnudgedhimclosertothebigleagues.Hamilton’sunderstandingofwhenandwheretoovertakeandhowtotakeadvantageofasituationisveryadvancedShawsays.AthisfirstcrackatGP2thetraininggroundforFormulaOneHamiltondominatedthe2006seasonwithaseriesofblisteringdrivesonhiswaytothetitle.Hamiltonisnotworriedaboutshowingordoingwhathe’susedtodoingjustbecauseit’sFormulaOnesaysHill.Formanynewdriversthat’sanenormoushurdle.Withtheretirementlastyearofseven-timeworldchampionMichaelSchumacherthere’sonelessrivalforHamiltontonegotiate.AndHamiltoniscertainlynotshortonconfidence.WhenhefirstmetRonDennis—nowhisFormulaOneteamboss—asa10-year-oldinaborrowedsuitHamiltonpromptlytoldhimhewantedtodriveforMcLaren.Threeyearslaterhejoinedtheteam’ssupportprogramforpromisingyoungdrivers.Butsayformerteammanagershe’sreadytolistenandlearnwhenthingsgowrong.Hamiltonhasararecapacitytoquestionhimself—toanalyzeveryclearlyafteraracesaysFredericVasseurgeneralmanagerattheARTGrandPrixteambehindHamilton’sGP2championship.Asforwhetherhe’llbecometheTigerWoodsofthesportit’stooearlytoknowwhetherhecanliveuptothosestandards.Butfornowhisfansarebullish.DamonHillwasthelastBritishdrivertotaketheworldcrown.Andit’sHamiltonHillsayswholookslikelytobethenext./WhichisthemostimportantreasonwhyLewisHamiltonparallelswithTigerWoods
In1929JohnD.Rockefellerdecideditwastimetosellshareswhenevenashoeshineboyofferedhimasharetip.DuringthepastweekTheEconomist’seconomicseditorhasbeenadvisedbyataxidriveraplumberandahairdresserthatyoucan’tgowronginvestinginhousing—themoreyouownthebetter.Isthisasignthatitistimetogetout.Attheveryleastashousepricesaroundtheworldclimbtoeverloftierheightsandmoreandmorepeoplejumpontothebuy-to-letladderitistimetoexposesomeofthefallaciesregularlytrottedoutbysomanyself-appointedhousingexperts.Onecommonerroristhathousepricesmustcontinuetorisebecauseofalimitedsupplyofland.ForinstanceitisarguedthathousepriceswillalwaysriseinLondonbecauselotsofpeoplewanttolivehere.Butthisconfusesthelevelofpriceswiththeirrateofchange.Homepricesareboundtobehigherinbigcitiesbecauseoflandscarcitybutthisdoesnotguaranteethaturbanhousepriceswillkeeprisingindefinitely—justlookatTokyo’shugeprice-dropssince1990.Andthoughitistruethatafixedsupplyofhomesmaypushuphousepricesifthepopulationisrisingthiswouldimplyasteadyriseinpricesnotthe20%annualjumpsofrecentyears.Asecondflawedargumentisthatlowinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperandsopushupdemandandprices.Lowerinterestratesmayhaveallowedsomepeoplewhootherwisecouldnothaveaffordedamortgagetobuyahome.Butmanyborrowerswhothinkmortgagesarecheaperaresufferingfrommoneyillusion.Interestratesarenotverylowinrealinflation-adjustedterms.Initialinterestpaymentsmayseemlowinrelationtoincomebutbecauseinflationisalsolowitwillnoterodetherealburdenofdebtasswiftlyasitoncedid.Soinlateryearsmortgagepaymentswillbemuchlargerinrealterms.Toarguethatlownominalinterestratesmakebuyingahomecheaperislikearguingthatacarloanpaidoffoverfouryearsischeaperthanonerepaidovertwoyears.FallacynumberthreeisafavouriteclaimofAlanGreenspanchairmanofAmerica’sFederalReserve.Thisisthatpricebubblesarelesslikelyinhousingthaninthestock-marketbecausehighertransactioncostsdiscouragespeculation.Infactseveralstudieshaveshownthatbothintheoryandinpracticebubblesaremorelikelyinhousingthaninshares.AstudybytheIMFfindsthatasharpriseinhousepricesisfarmorelikelytobefollowedbyabustthanashare-priceboom.ThetermfallaciesLine7Paragraph1mostprobablymeans
Aswithmanyagrown-upsportingstarthefirsthintofgreatnesscameatanearlyageforLewisHamilton.Asaneight-year-oldathisfirstkartracehechargedmorelikeamaturedriverthananoviceremembersMartinHinesowneroftheZipKartracingcompany.ScythinghiswaythroughthefieldjustoutsideLondonHamiltonhadaconfidentstylethatseemeddifferentfromnormalrookiesHinessays.Therewasalittlesparkabouthim.Now22andinhisdebutseasoninFormulaOne—hebecamethefirstblackdrivertomakeitontothegridinmotorracing’sblue-ribbonchampionship.HissuccessandprofilethathaveearnedyoungHamiltoncomparisonswithothersportinggreats.Hiscolor—Hamilton’sgrandfathercametoBritainfromGrenadainthe50s—andthepositiveinfluenceofhisfatherAnthonyhavedrawnparallelswithTigerWoods.Hamiltonacknowledgesthathisparticipationcouldstokeinterestamongethnicgroupswhomaynotbeintothesportnow.Hopefullypeoplethatcanrelatetomewillseethatit’spossibleandalsotrytogetintothesporthetoldtheBBC.Moreoverhisyouthgoodlooksandwholesomeimagearealsolikelytogetmarketersfiredup.Countlessmorekartingtitlesfollowedbefore2001.HemadeseasoneddriverslooksillysaysTonyShawHamilton’sthenteammanageratManorMotorsport.Hamilton’srawnaturalspeedandcannyracecraftnudgedhimclosertothebigleagues.Hamilton’sunderstandingofwhenandwheretoovertakeandhowtotakeadvantageofasituationisveryadvancedShawsays.AthisfirstcrackatGP2thetraininggroundforFormulaOneHamiltondominatedthe2006seasonwithaseriesofblisteringdrivesonhiswaytothetitle.Hamiltonisnotworriedaboutshowingordoingwhathe’susedtodoingjustbecauseit’sFormulaOnesaysHill.Formanynewdriversthat’sanenormoushurdle.Withtheretirementlastyearofseven-timeworldchampionMichaelSchumacherthere’sonelessrivalforHamiltontonegotiate.AndHamiltoniscertainlynotshortonconfidence.WhenhefirstmetRonDennis—nowhisFormulaOneteamboss—asa10-year-oldinaborrowedsuitHamiltonpromptlytoldhimhewantedtodriveforMcLaren.Threeyearslaterhejoinedtheteam’ssupportprogramforpromisingyoungdrivers.Butsayformerteammanagershe’sreadytolistenandlearnwhenthingsgowrong.Hamiltonhasararecapacitytoquestionhimself—toanalyzeveryclearlyafteraracesaysFredericVasseurgeneralmanagerattheARTGrandPrixteambehindHamilton’sGP2championship.Asforwhetherhe’llbecometheTigerWoodsofthesportit’stooearlytoknowwhetherhecanliveuptothosestandards.Butfornowhisfansarebullish.DamonHillwasthelastBritishdrivertotaketheworldcrown.Andit’sHamiltonHillsayswholookslikelytobethenext./WhichwordismostsimilarinmeaningtobullishLine2Lastparagraph
TheAmericanscreenhaslongbeenasmokyplaceatleastsince1942’sNowVoyagerinwhichBetteDavisandPaulHenreidshowedhowtomakeandsealaromanticdealoverapairofcigarettesthatweresmolderingasmuchasthestars.Todaycigarettesaremorecommononscreenthanatanyothertimesincemidcentury:75%ofallHollywoodfilms—including36%ofthoseratedGorPG—showtobaccouseaccordingtoa2006surveybytheUniversityofCaliforniaSanFrancisco.Audiencesespeciallykidsaretakingnotice.TworecentstudiespublishedinLancetandPediatricshavefoundthatamongchildrenasyoungas10thoseexposedtothemostscreensmokingareupto2.7timesaslikelyasotherstopickupthehabit.Worseit’stheonesfromnonsmokinghomeswhoarehitthehardest.NowtheHarvardSchoolofPublicHealthHSPH—thefolksbehindthedesignated-drivercampaign—arepushingtogetthesmokesoffthescreen.Somemoviesshowkidsupto14incidentsofsmokingperhoursaysBarryBloomHSPH’sdean.We’reinthebusinessofpreventingdiseaseandcigarettesaretheNo.1preventablecause.Harvardlongbelievedthatgettingcigarettesoutofmoviescouldhaveaspowerfulaneffectbutitwouldn’tbeeasy.Cigarettemakershadahistoryofstrikingproduct-placementdealswithHollywoodandwhilethe1998tobaccosettlementpreventsthatnothingstopsdirectorsfromincorporatingsmokingintoscenesontheirown.In1999Harvardbeganholdingone-on-onemeetingswithstudioexecstryingtochangethatandlastyeartheMotionPictureAssociationofAmericaflungthedooropeninvitingBloomtomakeapresentationinFebruarytoallthestudios.Harvard’sadvicewasdirect:Getthebuttsentirelyoutoratleastmakesmokingunappealing.Afewfilmsprovideaglimpseofwhatano-smokingorlow-smokingHollywoodwouldbelike.ProducerLindsayDoranwhooncehelpedpersuadedirectorJohnHughestokeepFerrisBuellersmoke-freeinthe1980shitwantedtodethesamefortheleadsofher2006movieStrangerThanFiction.WhenawriterconvincedherthatthecharacterplayedbyEmmaThompsonhadtosmokeDoranrelentedbutfromthewayThompsonhacksherwaythroughthefilmandsnuffsouthercigarettesinapalmfulofspitit’scleartheglamour’sgone.AndrememberallthesmokinginTheDevilWearsPradaNoThat’sbecausetheproducersofthatfilmkeptitoutentirely—eveninastorythattravelsfromtheUSfashionworldtoParistwoofthemosttobacco-happyplacesonearth.NoonesmokedinthatmoviesaysDoranandnoonenoticed.Suchmoviesarehardlytherulebutthepressureisgrowing.Likesmokersstudiosmayconcludethatquittingthehabitisnotjustalothealthierbutalsoalotsmarter.It’shardtogetcigarettesoutofHollywoodbecause
Germany’schimneysweeps—hallowedasbringersofgoodluckwiththeirblacktophatsandcoiled-wirebrushes—areunderattack.LastweektheEuropeanCommission’sdirectoratefortheinternalmarketrevivedproceedingsagainstanantiquatedGermanlawthatprotectssweepsagainstcompetition.Thecountry’schimneysweepsenjoyanear-perfectmonopoly.Germanyisdividedintoaround8000districtseachruledbyitsownmastersweepwhousuallyemploystwomoresweeps.Althoughthisisaprivateenterprisethemaintenanceandinspectionserviceprovidediscompulsoryandpricesaresetbythelocalauthority:sweepscannotstrayoutsidetheirdistrictnorcanhouseholderschangetheirsweepeveniftheyloathehim.Thisrulecutsbothways.TherearesomecustomersIcan’tstandeithersaysoneFrankfurtsweep.Therationaleissimple:chimney-sweepingandrelatedgasandheatingmaintenanceinGermanyaretreatedasamatterofpublicsafety.Annualorsemi-annualvisitsareprescribedkeepingthesweepsbusyallyearround.Forcenturieschimney-sweepsinEuropewereawanderingbreed.Butin1937thechimney-sweeplawwasrevisedbyHeinrichHimmlerthentheactinginteriorminister.HisrolestiedchimneysweepstotheirdistrictsanddecreedthattheyshouldbeGermantoenablehimtousesweepsaslocalspies.Thelawwasupdatedin1969leavingthelocalmonopoliesinplacebutopeninguptheprofessionintheoryatleasttonon-Germans.Butinpracticefewapply.FouryearsagoabravePolequalifiedasamasterinKaiserslauternaccordingtoafellowstudentandthisyearanItaliandidsointheRhinelandPalatinate.ButhelikemostnewlyqualifiedGermanmasterswillspendyearsonawaitinglistbeforehegetshisowndistrict.TheEuropeanCommissionwouldliketoseeacompetitivemarketinwhichpeoplecanchoosetheirownsweepsjustastheychoosebuildersorplumbers.Itfirstopenedinfringementproceedingsin2003andtheGermangovernmentofthetimepromisedtochangethelawbutfailedtodoso.AnddespitethehuffingandpuffingfromBrusselstilegovernmentisstillreluctanttodismantleitsantiquatedsystemonsafetygrounds.Thenumberofdeathsfromcarbon-monoxidepoisoninginGermanyisaroundone-tenththatinFranceorBelgiumclaimstheFrankfurtsweep.SoGermansarelikelytobestockwiththeirneighbourhoodSchornsteinfegers—whethertheycanstandeachotherornot—forsometimetocome.WhatdoesThisrulecutsbothwaysLine7Paragraph1mean
ForthepasttwoyearsinSiliconValleythecentreofAmerica’stechnologyindustryconference-goershaveentertainedthemselvesplayingaguessinggame:howmanytimeswillaspeakermentionthephraselongtailItisusuallyahighnumberthankstotheinfluenceofthelong-tailtheorywhichwasfirstdevelopedbyChrisAndersontheeditorofWiredmagazineinanarticlein2004.Thoughtechnologistsandbloggerschuckleathoweverybusinesspresentationnowhastohaveitslong-tailsectionmostareenviousofMr.Andersonwhosebrainwavequicklybecamethemostfashionablebusinessideaaround.Whetherablockbusterfilmabestsellingnovelorachart-toppingrapsongpopularcultureidolisesthehit.Companiesdevotethemselvestocreatingthembecausethecostofdistributionandthelimitsofshelfspaceinphysicalshopsmeanthatprofitabilitydependsonahighvolumeofsales.Butaroundthebeginningofthiscenturyagroupofinternetcompaniesrealisedthatwithendlessshelvesandanationaloreveninternationalaudienceonlinetheycouldofferahugerangeofproducts—andmakemoneyatthesametime.ThenichetheobscureandthespecialistMr.Andersonargueswillgaingroundattheexpenseofthehit.Asevidencehepointstoadropinthenumberofcompaniesthattraditionallycalculatetheirrevenue/salesratioaccordingtothe80/20rule—wherethetopfifthofproductscontributefour-fifthsofrevenues.EcastaSanFranciscodigitaljukeboxcompanyfoundthat98%ofits10000albumssoldatleastonetrackeverythreemonths.ExpressedinthelanguageofstatisticstheexperiencesofEcastandothercompaniessuchasAragonanonlinebooksellersuggestthatproductsdowninthelongtailofastatisticaldistributionaddedtogethercanbehighlyprofitable.Theinternethelpspeoplefindtheirwaytorelativelyobscurematerialwithrecommendationsandreviewsbyotherpeopleandforthosewillingtohavetheirartistictastespredictedbyapieceofsoftwarecomputerprogramswhichanalysepastselections.Long-tailenthusiastsarguethatthewholeofculturewillbenefitnotjustcommercialenterprises.Televisionfilmandmusicaresuchbewitchingmediaintheirownrightthatmanypeoplearequitehappytowatchandlistentowhatthemainstreamprovides.Butifindividualshavetheopportunitytopickbettermoreideallysuitedentertainmentfromafarwiderselectiontheywilltakeitaccordingtothetheoryofthelongtail.SomeanalystsreckonthatentirepopulationsmightbecomehappierandwiseroncetheyhaveaccesstothousandsofdocumentariesindependentfilmsandsubgenresofeverykindofmusicinsteadofbeingsubjectedtowhatMr.Andersoncallsthetyrannyoflowest-common-denominatorfare.Thatmightbetakingthingsabitfar.Butthelongtailiscertainlyoneoftheinternet’sbettergiftstohumanity.Whichofthefollowingstatementsislure
CurrentlytheAmericanarmedforcesarethelargestprofessionalmilitaryontheplanet.Other1haveprofessionalsoldiers2notasmanyastheUnitedStates.Forthousandsofyearsitwas3thatprofessionalsoldiersweresuperiorto4timers.But5mostofhistoryfewnationscould6anarmyofprofessionalsatleastnotonapermanentbasis.Itwasht7thelate20thcenturythatcountriesbeganto8largepermanentall-volunteerarmedforcesthatwerecarefully9andtrainedforcombat.Britainwasthefirstwhenitphasedoutconscriptionin1962.In1975theUnitedStatesfollowed10.Foroveracenturyconscriptionhasbeenseen11thewaytoremain12strongwithoutbreakingthebank.Buttheconscriptsdidnotstayinuniformlongenoughtogetreallygoodatfighting.BritainandAmericanwerethefirsttwonationstorealizethatconscriptionwasso13thatthevoterswouldpayextrato14aprofessionalforce.Withinadecadeanarmyofprofessionalsbeginstopay15.Theprofessionalsarenotonlymore16onthebattlefieldbutarealsoifcarefully17foreducationandaptitudemorelikelytoconstantlydevelopbetterwaysto18Thisproducesatremendousbattlefield19Itdoesn’tmakeyou20butitdoesmakeyouverydifficulttodefeat. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.1
CurrentlytheAmericanarmedforcesarethelargestprofessionalmilitaryontheplanet.Other1haveprofessionalsoldiers2notasmanyastheUnitedStates.Forthousandsofyearsitwas3thatprofessionalsoldiersweresuperiorto4timers.But5mostofhistoryfewnationscould6anarmyofprofessionalsatleastnotonapermanentbasis.Itwasht7thelate20thcenturythatcountriesbeganto8largepermanentall-volunteerarmedforcesthatwerecarefully9andtrainedforcombat.Britainwasthefirstwhenitphasedoutconscriptionin1962.In1975theUnitedStatesfollowed10.Foroveracenturyconscriptionhasbeenseen11thewaytoremain12strongwithoutbreakingthebank.Buttheconscriptsdidnotstayinuniformlongenoughtogetreallygoodatfighting.BritainandAmericanwerethefirsttwonationstorealizethatconscriptionwasso13thatthevoterswouldpayextrato14aprofessionalforce.Withinadecadeanarmyofprofessionalsbeginstopay15.Theprofessionalsarenotonlymore16onthebattlefieldbutarealsoifcarefully17foreducationandaptitudemorelikelytoconstantlydevelopbetterwaysto18Thisproducesatremendousbattlefield19Itdoesn’tmakeyou20butitdoesmakeyouverydifficulttodefeat. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.11
CurrentlytheAmericanarmedforcesarethelargestprofessionalmilitaryontheplanet.Other1haveprofessionalsoldiers2notasmanyastheUnitedStates.Forthousandsofyearsitwas3thatprofessionalsoldiersweresuperiorto4timers.But5mostofhistoryfewnationscould6anarmyofprofessionalsatleastnotonapermanentbasis.Itwasht7thelate20thcenturythatcountriesbeganto8largepermanentall-volunteerarmedforcesthatwerecarefully9andtrainedforcombat.Britainwasthefirstwhenitphasedoutconscriptionin1962.In1975theUnitedStatesfollowed10.Foroveracenturyconscriptionhasbeenseen11thewaytoremain12strongwithoutbreakingthebank.Buttheconscriptsdidnotstayinuniformlongenoughtogetreallygoodatfighting.BritainandAmericanwerethefirsttwonationstorealizethatconscriptionwasso13thatthevoterswouldpayextrato14aprofessionalforce.Withinadecadeanarmyofprofessionalsbeginstopay15.Theprofessionalsarenotonlymore16onthebattlefieldbutarealsoifcarefully17foreducationandaptitudemorelikelytoconstantlydevelopbetterwaysto18Thisproducesatremendousbattlefield19Itdoesn’tmakeyou20butitdoesmakeyouverydifficulttodefeat. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.3
TheAmericanscreenhaslongbeenasmokyplaceatleastsince1942’sNowVoyagerinwhichBetteDavisandPaulHenreidshowedhowtomakeandsealaromanticdealoverapairofcigarettesthatweresmolderingasmuchasthestars.Todaycigarettesaremorecommononscreenthanatanyothertimesincemidcentury:75%ofallHollywoodfilms—including36%ofthoseratedGorPG—showtobaccouseaccordingtoa2006surveybytheUniversityofCaliforniaSanFrancisco.Audiencesespeciallykidsaretakingnotice.TworecentstudiespublishedinLancetandPediatricshavefoundthatamongchildrenasyoungas10thoseexposedtothemostscreensmokingareupto2.7timesaslikelyasotherstopickupthehabit.Worseit’stheonesfromnonsmokinghomeswhoarehitthehardest.NowtheHarvardSchoolofPublicHealthHSPH—thefolksbehindthedesignated-drivercampaign—arepushingtogetthesmokesoffthescreen.Somemoviesshowkidsupto14incidentsofsmokingperhoursaysBarryBloomHSPH’sdean.We’reinthebusinessofpreventingdiseaseandcigarettesaretheNo.1preventablecause.Harvardlongbelievedthatgettingcigarettesoutofmoviescouldhaveaspowerfulaneffectbutitwouldn’tbeeasy.Cigarettemakershadahistoryofstrikingproduct-placementdealswithHollywoodandwhilethe1998tobaccosettlementpreventsthatnothingstopsdirectorsfromincorporatingsmokingintoscenesontheirown.In1999Harvardbeganholdingone-on-onemeetingswithstudioexecstryingtochangethatandlastyeartheMotionPictureAssociationofAmericaflungthedooropeninvitingBloomtomakeapresentationinFebruarytoallthestudios.Harvard’sadvicewasdirect:Getthebuttsentirelyoutoratleastmakesmokingunappealing.Afewfilmsprovideaglimpseofwhatano-smokingorlow-smokingHollywoodwouldbelike.ProducerLindsayDoranwhooncehelpedpersuadedirectorJohnHughestokeepFerrisBuellersmoke-freeinthe1980shitwantedtodethesamefortheleadsofher2006movieStrangerThanFiction.WhenawriterconvincedherthatthecharacterplayedbyEmmaThompsonhadtosmokeDoranrelentedbutfromthewayThompsonhacksherwaythroughthefilmandsnuffsouthercigarettesinapalmfulofspitit’scleartheglamour’sgone.AndrememberallthesmokinginTheDevilWearsPradaNoThat’sbecausetheproducersofthatfilmkeptitoutentirely—eveninastorythattravelsfromtheUSfashionworldtoParistwoofthemosttobacco-happyplacesonearth.NoonesmokedinthatmoviesaysDoranandnoonenoticed.Suchmoviesarehardlytherulebutthepressureisgrowing.Likesmokersstudiosmayconcludethatquittingthehabitisnotjustalothealthierbutalsoalotsmarter.WhytheauthormentionedNowVoyager
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