首页
试卷库
试题库
当前位置:
X题卡
>
所有题目
>
题目详情
Even before canaries (特高频噪声) were brought into coal mines to alert workers to the presence of poi...
查看本题答案
包含此试题的试卷
国家统考科目《相同项单选集》真题及答案
点击查看
你可能感兴趣的试题
GIS局部放电可用方法进行检测
特高频、超声波
高频、超声波
高频、地电波
特高频、地电波
较早的移动通信主要使用频段
高频,甚高频
甚高频,特高频
低频,高频
中高频,特高频
下面的频谱与理想的白噪声频谱相同
低频噪声
高频噪声
随机噪声
ζ函数
特高频局部放电带电检测中现场的干扰根据其时域特征的不同可分为
白噪声干扰
谐波干扰
窄带周期性干扰
脉冲型干扰
特高频检测常见的干扰信号主要由
雷达噪声
移动电话噪声
荧光噪声
马达噪声
较早的移动通信主要使用频段
高频,甚高频
甚高频,特高频
低频,高频
中高频,特高频
在一次噪声测量中用ABC网络测出噪声的声级值分别为LALBLC若LC>LB>LA则表明噪声集中在
超高频段
高频段
中频段
低频段
生产性噪声中噪声占比例最大
低频
中频
中高频
高频
在实际工作中低频噪声比高频噪声容易治理
某个噪声的总声压级比A声级大得多说明此噪声是特性
低频
中频
中高频
高频
生产性噪声中噪声占比例最大
低频
中频
中高频
高频
噪声分为低频噪声和高频噪声声两种来自电源线
高频噪声选择阻性消声器中低频噪声选用
噪声频率大于800Hz者称为
脉冲性噪声
连续性噪声
稳态噪声
非稳态噪声
高频噪声
外部噪声包括
太阳噪声
接收机噪声
高频电器噪声
电力线噪声
高频噪声
双原子气体噪声特点是以高频率噪声为主
特高频背景噪声测试时应将仪器调到量程测量空间背景噪声值并记 录
最小
中间
最大
不用调
150MKZ无线频段范围属于.
特高频
甚高频
高频
下列说法正确的是
特高频局放检测技术可用于电缆的带电检测
特高频局放检测技术可用于任意类型GIS局放的检测
特高频法局部放电检测不可用于__电缆、电缆本体的带电检测
特高频局部放电检测中的同步信号通常是指同时发生的局部放电信号
热门试题
更多
Intheidealizedversionofhowscienceisdonefactsabouttheworldarewaitingtobeobservedandcollectedbyobjectiveresearcherswhousethescientificmethodtocan’youttheirwork.Butintheeverydaypracticeofsciencediscoveryfrequentlyfollowsanambiguousandcomplicatedroute.Weaimtobeobjectivebutwecannotescapethecontextofouruniquelifeexperience.Priorknowledgeandinterestinfluencewhatweexperiencewhatwethinkourexperiencesmeanandthesubsequentactionswetake.Opportunitiesformisinterpretationerrorandself-deceptionabound. Consequentlydiscoveryclaimsshouldbethoughtofasprotoscience.Similartonewlystakedminingclaimstheyarelullofpotential.Butittakescollectivescrutinyandacceptancetotransformadiscoveryclaimintoamaturediscovery.Thisisthecredibilityprocessthroughwhichtheindividualresearcher’smeherenowbecomesthecommunity’sanyoneanywhereanytime.Objectiveknowledgeisthegoalnotthestartingpoint. Onceadiscoveryclaimbecomespublicthediscovererreceivesintellectualcredit.Butunlikewithminingclaimsthecommunitytakescontrolofwhathappensnext.Withinthecomplexsocialstructureofthescientificcommunityresearchersmakediscoveries;editorsandreviewersactasgatekeepersbycontrollingthepublicationprocess;otherscientistsusethenewfindingtosuittheirownpurposes;andfinallythepublicincludingotherscientistsreceivesthenewdiscoveryandpossiblyaccompanyingtechnology.Asadiscoveryclaimworksitwaythroughthecommunitytheinteractionandconfrontationbetweensharedandcompetingbeliefsaboutthescienceandthetechnologyinvolvedtransformsanindividual’sdiscoveryclaimintothecommunity’scrediblediscovery. Twoparadoxesexistthroughoutthiscredibilityprocess.FirstscientificworktendstofocusonsomeaspectofprevailingKnowledgethatisviewedasincompleteorincorrect.Littlerewardaccompaniesduplicationandconfirmationofwhatisalreadyknownandbelieved.Thegoalisnew-searchnotre-search.Notsurprisinglynewlypublisheddiscoveryclaimsandcrediblediscoveriesthatappeartobeimportantandconvincingwillalwaysbeopentochallengeandpotentialmodificationorrefutationbyfutureresearchers.Secondnoveltyitselffrequentlyprovokesdisbelief.NobelLaureateandphysiologistAlbertAzent-Gy6rgyioncedescribeddiscoveryas"seeingwhateverybodyhasseenandthinkingwhatnobodyhasthought."Butthinkingwhatnobodyelsehasthoughtandtellingotherswhattheyhavemissedmaynotchangetheirviews.Sometimesyearsarerequiredfortrulynoveldiscoveryclaimstobeacceptedandappreciated. Intheendcredibility"happens"toadiscoveryclaim—aprocessthatcorrespondstowhatphilosopherAnnetteBaierhasdescribedasthecommonsofthemind."Wereasontogetherchallengereviseandcompleteeachother’sreasoningandeachother’sconceptionsofreason. Accordingtothefirstparagraphtheprocessofdiscoveryischaracterizedbyits
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 17
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 19
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 15
Inmostpartsoftheworldclimatechangeisaworryingsubject.NotsoinCalifornia.Atarecentgatheringofgreenluminaries--inafilmstar’shousenaturallyforthatishowseriousnessisoftenestablishedinLosAngeles--thedominantnotewasself-satisfactionatwhatthestatehasalreadyachieved.AndperhapsnobodyismorecomplacentthanArnoldSchwarzenegger.UnlikeA1GoreapresidentialcandidateturnedprophetofenvironmentaldoomCalifornia’sgovernorsoundscheerfulwhentalkingaboutclimatechange.Aswellhemight:ithasmadehispoliticalcareer. AlthoughCaliforniahaslongbeenanenvironmentally-consciousstateuntilrecentlygreenswereconcernedaboveallwithsmogandredwoodtrees."CoastofDreams"KevinStarr’sauthoritativehistoryofcontemporaryCaliforniapublishedin2004doesnotmentionclimatechange.Inthatyearthoughthenewly-electedMr.Schwarzeneggermadehisfirsttentativecallforwesternstatestoseekalternativestofossilfuels.Graduallyhenoticedthathiseffortstotackleclimatechangemetwithlessresistanceandmoreacclaimthanjustaboutallhisotherpolicies.Thesedaysitcanseemasthoughheworksonnothingelse. Mr.Schwarzenegger’stransformationfromscreenwarriortoeco-warriorwascompletedlastyearwhenhesignedabillimposinglegally-enforceablelimitsongreenhouse--gasemissions--afirstforAmerica.ThanksmostlytoitslackofcoalandheavyindustryCaliforniaisarelativelycleanstate.Ifitwereacountryitwouldbetheworld’seighth-biggesteconomybutonlyits16th-biggestpolluter.Itsbigproblemistransport--meaningmostlycarsandtruckswhichaccountformorethan40%ofitsgreenhouse-gasemissionscomparedwith32%inAmericaasawhole.Thestatewantstoratchetdownemissionslimitsonnewvehiclesbeginningin2009.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasalsoorderedthatby2020vehiclefuelmustproduce10%lesscarbon:intheproductionaswellastheburningsoasimpleswitchtocorn-basedethanolisprobablyout. ThanksinparttoCalifornia’sexamplemostofthewesternstateshaveadoptedclimateactionplans.WhenitcomestosettingemissiontargetsthescenecanresembleaposedownataMr.Olympiacontest.Arizona’sclimate-changescholarsdecidedtosetatargetofcuttingthestate’semissionsto2000levelsby2020.ButJanetNapolitanothegovernorwasdeterminednottobeout-muscledbyCalifornia.ShehasdeclaredthatArizonawilltrytoreturnto2000emissionlevelsby2012. Californiahasnotjustinspiredotherstates;ithascreatedavanguardthatoughttobeabletoprodthefederalgovernmentintostrongernationalstandardsthanitwouldotherwiseconsider.ButCaliforniaisfindingiteasiertoexportitspoliciesthantoputthemintopracticeathome.InonewayCalifornia’sself-confidenceisfullyjustified.Ithasdonemorethananyotherstate--letalonethefederalgovernment--tofixAmerica’sattentiononclimatechange.Ithasalsomadeitseemasthoughtheproblemcanbesolved.Whichiswhyfailurewouldbesuchbadnews.AtthemomentCaliforniaisabeacontootherstates.Ifitfailsitwillbecomeanexcuseforinaction. AccordingtotheauthorMr.ArnoldSchwarzeneggerischeerfulchieflybecause
Intheidealizedversionofhowscienceisdonefactsabouttheworldarewaitingtobeobservedandcollectedbyobjectiveresearcherswhousethescientificmethodtocan’youttheirwork.Butintheeverydaypracticeofsciencediscoveryfrequentlyfollowsanambiguousandcomplicatedroute.Weaimtobeobjectivebutwecannotescapethecontextofouruniquelifeexperience.Priorknowledgeandinterestinfluencewhatweexperiencewhatwethinkourexperiencesmeanandthesubsequentactionswetake.Opportunitiesformisinterpretationerrorandself-deceptionabound. Consequentlydiscoveryclaimsshouldbethoughtofasprotoscience.Similartonewlystakedminingclaimstheyarelullofpotential.Butittakescollectivescrutinyandacceptancetotransformadiscoveryclaimintoamaturediscovery.Thisisthecredibilityprocessthroughwhichtheindividualresearcher’smeherenowbecomesthecommunity’sanyoneanywhereanytime.Objectiveknowledgeisthegoalnotthestartingpoint. Onceadiscoveryclaimbecomespublicthediscovererreceivesintellectualcredit.Butunlikewithminingclaimsthecommunitytakescontrolofwhathappensnext.Withinthecomplexsocialstructureofthescientificcommunityresearchersmakediscoveries;editorsandreviewersactasgatekeepersbycontrollingthepublicationprocess;otherscientistsusethenewfindingtosuittheirownpurposes;andfinallythepublicincludingotherscientistsreceivesthenewdiscoveryandpossiblyaccompanyingtechnology.Asadiscoveryclaimworksitwaythroughthecommunitytheinteractionandconfrontationbetweensharedandcompetingbeliefsaboutthescienceandthetechnologyinvolvedtransformsanindividual’sdiscoveryclaimintothecommunity’scrediblediscovery. Twoparadoxesexistthroughoutthiscredibilityprocess.FirstscientificworktendstofocusonsomeaspectofprevailingKnowledgethatisviewedasincompleteorincorrect.Littlerewardaccompaniesduplicationandconfirmationofwhatisalreadyknownandbelieved.Thegoalisnew-searchnotre-search.Notsurprisinglynewlypublisheddiscoveryclaimsandcrediblediscoveriesthatappeartobeimportantandconvincingwillalwaysbeopentochallengeandpotentialmodificationorrefutationbyfutureresearchers.Secondnoveltyitselffrequentlyprovokesdisbelief.NobelLaureateandphysiologistAlbertAzent-Gy6rgyioncedescribeddiscoveryas"seeingwhateverybodyhasseenandthinkingwhatnobodyhasthought."Butthinkingwhatnobodyelsehasthoughtandtellingotherswhattheyhavemissedmaynotchangetheirviews.Sometimesyearsarerequiredfortrulynoveldiscoveryclaimstobeacceptedandappreciated. Intheendcredibility"happens"toadiscoveryclaim—aprocessthatcorrespondstowhatphilosopherAnnetteBaierhasdescribedasthecommonsofthemind."Wereasontogetherchallengereviseandcompleteeachother’sreasoningandeachother’sconceptionsofreason. Paragraph3showsthatadiscoveryclaimbecomescredibleafterit
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 3
WhenLiamMcGeedepartedaspresidentofBankofAmericainAugusthisexplanationwassurprisinglystraightup.Ratherthancloakinghisexitintheusualvagueexcuseshecamerightoutandsaidhewasleavingtopursuemygoalofrunningacompany.BroadcastinghisambitionwasverymuchmydecisionMcGeesays.WithintwoweekshewastalkingforthefirsttimewiththeboardofHartfordFinancialServicesGroupwhichnamedhimCEOandchairmanonSeptember29.McGeesaysleavingwithoutapositionlinedupgavehimtimetoreflectonwhatkindofcompanyhewantedtorun.Italsosentaclearmessagetotheoutsideworldabouthisaspirations.AndMcGeeisn’talone.InrecentweekstheNo.2executivesatAvonandAmericanExpressquitwiththeexplanationthattheywerelookingforaCEOpost.Asboardsscrutinizesuccessionplansinresponsetoshareholderpressureexecutiveswhodon’tgetthenodalsomaywishtomoveon.Aturbulentbusinessenvironmentalsohasseniormanagerscautiousoflettingvaguepronouncementscloudtheirreputations.Asthefirstsignsofrecoverybegintotakeholddeputychiefsmaybemorewillingtomakethejumpwithoutanet.InthethirdquarterCEOturnoverwasdown23%fromayearagoasnervousboardsstuckwiththeleaderstheyhadaccordingtoLiberumResearch.Astheeconomypicksupopportunitieswillaboundforaspiringleaders.Thedecisiontoquitaseniorpositiontolookforabetteroneisunconventional.ForyearsexecutivesandheadhuntershaveadheredtotherulethatthemostattractiveCEOcandidatesaretheoneswhomustbepoached.SaysKorn/FerryseniorpartnerDennisCarey:Ican’tthinkofasinglesearchI’vedonewhereaboardhasnotinstructedmetolookatsittingCEOsfirst.Thosewhojumpedwithoutajobhaven’talwayslandedintoppositionsquickly.EllenMarramquitaschiefofTropicanaadecadeagesayingshewantedtobeaCEO.ItwasayearbeforeshebecameheadofatinyInternet-basedcommoditiesexchange.RobertWillumstadleftCitigroupin2005withambitionstobeaCEO.Hefinallytookthatpostatamajorfinancialinstitutionthreeyearslater.Manyrecruiterssaytheolddisgraceisfadingfortopperformers.Thefinancialcrisishasmadeitmoreacceptabletobebetweenjobsortoleaveabadone.Thetraditionalrulewasit’ssafertostaywhereyouarebutthat’sbeenfundamentallyinvertedsaysoneheadhunter.Thepeoplewho’vebeenhurttheworstarethosewho’vestayedtoolong.AccordingtoParagraph2seniorexecutives’quittingmaybespurredby
Forthispartyouareallowedfifteenminutestowritealetter.SupposeyouareZhangYing.WritealettertoXiaoWangaschoolmateofyourswhoisgoingtovisityouduringtheweeklongholiday.Youshouldwriteaccordingtothesuggestionsgivenbelow. 1Welcomehim; 2Givesomesuggestionsonhowhespendstheholiday; 3Somethingdetailedtobepaidattentionto.
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 11
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 13
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 41
Inmostpartsoftheworldclimatechangeisaworryingsubject.NotsoinCalifornia.Atarecentgatheringofgreenluminaries--inafilmstar’shousenaturallyforthatishowseriousnessisoftenestablishedinLosAngeles--thedominantnotewasself-satisfactionatwhatthestatehasalreadyachieved.AndperhapsnobodyismorecomplacentthanArnoldSchwarzenegger.UnlikeA1GoreapresidentialcandidateturnedprophetofenvironmentaldoomCalifornia’sgovernorsoundscheerfulwhentalkingaboutclimatechange.Aswellhemight:ithasmadehispoliticalcareer. AlthoughCaliforniahaslongbeenanenvironmentally-consciousstateuntilrecentlygreenswereconcernedaboveallwithsmogandredwoodtrees."CoastofDreams"KevinStarr’sauthoritativehistoryofcontemporaryCaliforniapublishedin2004doesnotmentionclimatechange.Inthatyearthoughthenewly-electedMr.Schwarzeneggermadehisfirsttentativecallforwesternstatestoseekalternativestofossilfuels.Graduallyhenoticedthathiseffortstotackleclimatechangemetwithlessresistanceandmoreacclaimthanjustaboutallhisotherpolicies.Thesedaysitcanseemasthoughheworksonnothingelse. Mr.Schwarzenegger’stransformationfromscreenwarriortoeco-warriorwascompletedlastyearwhenhesignedabillimposinglegally-enforceablelimitsongreenhouse--gasemissions--afirstforAmerica.ThanksmostlytoitslackofcoalandheavyindustryCaliforniaisarelativelycleanstate.Ifitwereacountryitwouldbetheworld’seighth-biggesteconomybutonlyits16th-biggestpolluter.Itsbigproblemistransport--meaningmostlycarsandtruckswhichaccountformorethan40%ofitsgreenhouse-gasemissionscomparedwith32%inAmericaasawhole.Thestatewantstoratchetdownemissionslimitsonnewvehiclesbeginningin2009.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasalsoorderedthatby2020vehiclefuelmustproduce10%lesscarbon:intheproductionaswellastheburningsoasimpleswitchtocorn-basedethanolisprobablyout. ThanksinparttoCalifornia’sexamplemostofthewesternstateshaveadoptedclimateactionplans.WhenitcomestosettingemissiontargetsthescenecanresembleaposedownataMr.Olympiacontest.Arizona’sclimate-changescholarsdecidedtosetatargetofcuttingthestate’semissionsto2000levelsby2020.ButJanetNapolitanothegovernorwasdeterminednottobeout-muscledbyCalifornia.ShehasdeclaredthatArizonawilltrytoreturnto2000emissionlevelsby2012. Californiahasnotjustinspiredotherstates;ithascreatedavanguardthatoughttobeabletoprodthefederalgovernmentintostrongernationalstandardsthanitwouldotherwiseconsider.ButCaliforniaisfindingiteasiertoexportitspoliciesthantoputthemintopracticeathome.InonewayCalifornia’sself-confidenceisfullyjustified.Ithasdonemorethananyotherstate--letalonethefederalgovernment--tofixAmerica’sattentiononclimatechange.Ithasalsomadeitseemasthoughtheproblemcanbesolved.Whichiswhyfailurewouldbesuchbadnews.AtthemomentCaliforniaisabeacontootherstates.Ifitfailsitwillbecomeanexcuseforinaction. Corn-basedethanolmightnotbechosenasanalternativebecause
Anawkward-lookingcharactersuchasCyranodeBergeracmightsniffatthesuggestionbutrecentscientificresearchshowsbeautybrainsandbrawnmayinfactallbealliedwritesDrRajPersaud. 46Psychologistshaveconcludedthatwemaybedrawntothestereotypicallyattractivebecauseofwhattheirfacesrevealabouttheirintelligenceandsuccessinlaterlife.InAmericanresearchledbyProfessorLeslieZebrowitzofBrandeisUniversityhasshownanassociationbetweenfacialattractiveandIQ.Strangersbrieflyexposedtoatarget’sfacewereabletocorrectlyjudgeintelligenceatlevelssignificantlybetterthanchance. Thesameteamalsoresearchedhowaperson’sattractivenessmightbearrelationtotheirintelligence.Theyfoundthatgood-lookingpeopledidbetterinIQtestsastheyaged.47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.48Perhapsbecausethemoreattractivepeopleweretreatedasmoreintelligenttheyendeduphavingmorestimulatingandthereforeintelligence-enhancinglives. DoesthismeanthatyourfacereallycouldbeyourdestinySociologistsDrUlrichMuellerandDrAllanMazuroftheUniversityofMarburginGermanyrecentlyanalyzedthefinalyearphotographsofthe1950graduatesofWestPointintheUnitedStates.Dominantfacialappearancesturnedouttobeaconsistentpredictoroflater-rankattainment: Againtheybelievedtherecouldbeaself-fulfillingeffect.49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks. AteamattheRoyalCollegeofSurgeonsinDublinhasbeeninvestigatingthesensitivesubjectoflinksbetweenphysicalandmentalabnormalities.LedbyDoctorsRobinHennessyandJohnWaddingtontheteamusedanewlasersurface-scanningtechniquetomakea3-Danalysisofhowfacialshapemightvarywithbrainstructure.Theirfindingsshowedthatinearlyfetallifebrainandfacedevelopmentareintimatelyconnected.Fromthistheyconcludedthatabnormalitiesinbrainelaborationprobablyalsoaffectfacedevelopment. ThisaccordingtothemexplainsthestrikingfacialfeaturesofsomeonewithDown’ssyndrome.50Usingsimilartechniquestheteamalsodemonstratedhowotherdisorderslinkedtobrainaberrationscouldbeassociatedwithfacialalterations. Sotheverylatestscientificresearchsuggeststhatnobodyshouldtrytolooktooobviouslydifferentfromaverage. 49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks.
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 1
CurrentGroupaGermantown-basedtechnologyfirmhastakenoveranordinarylookinghouseinBethesdaandturneditintoalaboratoryforsmart-gridtechnologythesystemthecompanybelieveswillbringthenation’selectricitygridsintothedigitalage. Inthefrontyardstandsautilitypolehookeduptoaspecialtransformerthatconnectsthepowerlinestohigh-speedInternet.Hundredsofsensorsattachedtothelinesmonitorhowpowerflowsthroughthehome.Thatinformationisthensentbacktotheutilitycompany. Theprocessletsautilitymoreefficientlymanagethedistributionofelectricitybyallowingtwo-waycommunicationbetweenconsumersandenergysuppliersviathebroadbandnetworkonthepowerlines.Basedondatatheyreceivefromhundredsofhomesutilitiescanmonitorusageandadjustoutputandpricinginresponsetodemand.Consumerscanberewardedwithreducedratesbycuttingbackonconsumptionduringpeakperiods.Andcomputerizedsubstationscantalktoeachothersooverloadedcircuitshandoffelectricitytothosethathavenotfullyloadedhelpingtopreventblackouts. Someutilitycompanieshavelaunchedinitiativestogiveconsumersdataabouttheirenergyconsumptionhabitsinanefforttolowerenergybills.Smart-gridtechnologytakessuchprogramsfurtherbyautomatingelectricitydistributionwhichwouldmakegridsmorereliableandefficient. Bypartneringwithutilitiesthecompanyhopestotapinto$4.5billioninstimulusgrantsintendedtoencouragesmart-griddevelopment.WhenheannouncedthefundingPresidentObamapointedtoaprojectinBoulderColo.asanexampleofasuccessfulsmart-gridexperiment.Currentisoneofthecompaniesworkingontheproject. Current’schiefexecutiveTomCaseybelievesthetechnologywillhelputilitycompaniesbetterdistributeelectricityproducedbyrenewableresourcessuchassolarpanelsorwindfarms."Asmartgrid’ssystemcanbepairedupwiththerenewableresourcessothatwhentherenewablesourceisvaryingtheoverallloadcanbevariedaswell"CaseytoldtheHouseSelectCommitteeonEnergyIndependenceandGlobalWarming."Thiswillreduceoreliminatetheneedforbackupcoalorgas-basedpowergenerationplants. Forsmart-gridtechnologytoworkwhichofthefollowingisamust
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 7
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 5
WhenLiamMcGeedepartedaspresidentofBankofAmericainAugusthisexplanationwassurprisinglystraightup.Ratherthancloakinghisexitintheusualvagueexcuseshecamerightoutandsaidhewasleavingtopursuemygoalofrunningacompany.BroadcastinghisambitionwasverymuchmydecisionMcGeesays.WithintwoweekshewastalkingforthefirsttimewiththeboardofHartfordFinancialServicesGroupwhichnamedhimCEOandchairmanonSeptember29.McGeesaysleavingwithoutapositionlinedupgavehimtimetoreflectonwhatkindofcompanyhewantedtorun.Italsosentaclearmessagetotheoutsideworldabouthisaspirations.AndMcGeeisn’talone.InrecentweekstheNo.2executivesatAvonandAmericanExpressquitwiththeexplanationthattheywerelookingforaCEOpost.Asboardsscrutinizesuccessionplansinresponsetoshareholderpressureexecutiveswhodon’tgetthenodalsomaywishtomoveon.Aturbulentbusinessenvironmentalsohasseniormanagerscautiousoflettingvaguepronouncementscloudtheirreputations.Asthefirstsignsofrecoverybegintotakeholddeputychiefsmaybemorewillingtomakethejumpwithoutanet.InthethirdquarterCEOturnoverwasdown23%fromayearagoasnervousboardsstuckwiththeleaderstheyhadaccordingtoLiberumResearch.Astheeconomypicksupopportunitieswillaboundforaspiringleaders.Thedecisiontoquitaseniorpositiontolookforabetteroneisunconventional.ForyearsexecutivesandheadhuntershaveadheredtotherulethatthemostattractiveCEOcandidatesaretheoneswhomustbepoached.SaysKorn/FerryseniorpartnerDennisCarey:Ican’tthinkofasinglesearchI’vedonewhereaboardhasnotinstructedmetolookatsittingCEOsfirst.Thosewhojumpedwithoutajobhaven’talwayslandedintoppositionsquickly.EllenMarramquitaschiefofTropicanaadecadeagesayingshewantedtobeaCEO.ItwasayearbeforeshebecameheadofatinyInternet-basedcommoditiesexchange.RobertWillumstadleftCitigroupin2005withambitionstobeaCEO.Hefinallytookthatpostatamajorfinancialinstitutionthreeyearslater.Manyrecruiterssaytheolddisgraceisfadingfortopperformers.Thefinancialcrisishasmadeitmoreacceptabletobebetweenjobsortoleaveabadone.Thetraditionalrulewasit’ssafertostaywhereyouarebutthat’sbeenfundamentallyinvertedsaysoneheadhunter.Thepeoplewho’vebeenhurttheworstarethosewho’vestayedtoolong.Itcanbeinferredfromthelastparagraphthat
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 45
"We’reusingthewrongword"saysSeanDrysdaleadesperatedoctorfromaruralhospitalatHlabisainnorthernKwaZulu-Natal."Thisisn’tanepidemicit’sadisaster."ArecentUNIEFreportwhichstatesthatalmostone-thirdofSwaziland’s900000peopleareinfectedwithHIVthevirusthatcausesAIDSsupportsthisdiagnosis.HIVisspreadingfasterinsouthernAfricathananywhereelseintheworld. ButisanyonepayingattentionDespitethefactthatmostoftheworld’s33.5millionHIV/AIDScasesareinsub-SaharanAfrica—withanadditional4millioninfectedeachyear—theprioritiesatlastweek’sOrganizationofAfricanUnitysummitwereconflictresolutionandeconomiesdevelopment.Yettheepidemiccouldhaveagreatereffectoneconomicdevelopment—orratherthelackofit—thanmanypoliticianssuspect. Whilebusinessleadersaremoreconcernedaboutthe2Kmillenniumbugthanthelong-termeffectofAIDSstatisticsshowthattheworkfareinSouthAfricaforinstanceislikelytobe20%HIVpositivebynextyear.Medicalofficialsandresearcherswarnthatnotasinglecountryintheregionhasacohesivegovernmentstrategytotacklethecrisis. ThewaymanagersaddressAIDSintheworkplacewilldeterminewhethertheircompaniessurvivethefirstdecadeofthe21stcenturysaysDeaneMooreanactuaryforSouthAfrica’sMetropolitanLifeInsuranceCompany.MooreestimatesthatinSouthAfricatherewillbe580000newAIDScasesayearandalifeexpectancyofjust38by2010."We’llbebacktotheMiddleAges"saysDrysdalewhosehospitalisinoneoftheareasinSouthAfricawiththehighestratesofHIVinfection."Thegraphisheadingtowardthevertical.Andyetpeoplearestillnottakingitseriously." MostsouthernAfricancountriesaresimplytoopoortosupplymorethanbasichealthservicesletalonemedicinestoconfrontthecrisis.PatientsinsomegovernmenthospitalsinHararehavetosupplytheirownbeddingfooddrugsandinsomecaseseventheirownnurses.Zimbabwe’sfraildomesticeconomydependstoalargeextentoninformalenterprisesandsmallbusinessesmanyofwhicharegoingbankruptasAIDStakesitstollonownersandemployees."Therippleeffectisdevastating"saysHarareAIDSresearcherReneLoewenson. MoreominousaretheimplicationsforSouthAfricawithasophisticatedindustrialinfrastructureaswellasawidespreadinformalsector.WhiletheSouthAfricangovernmentisactiveinpromotingAIDSeducationithasn’tthemoneymanpowerormaterialtocopewiththeattackofAIDS. WhatcanwelearnfromParagraph2andParagraph3
CurrentGroupaGermantown-basedtechnologyfirmhastakenoveranordinarylookinghouseinBethesdaandturneditintoalaboratoryforsmart-gridtechnologythesystemthecompanybelieveswillbringthenation’selectricitygridsintothedigitalage. Inthefrontyardstandsautilitypolehookeduptoaspecialtransformerthatconnectsthepowerlinestohigh-speedInternet.Hundredsofsensorsattachedtothelinesmonitorhowpowerflowsthroughthehome.Thatinformationisthensentbacktotheutilitycompany. Theprocessletsautilitymoreefficientlymanagethedistributionofelectricitybyallowingtwo-waycommunicationbetweenconsumersandenergysuppliersviathebroadbandnetworkonthepowerlines.Basedondatatheyreceivefromhundredsofhomesutilitiescanmonitorusageandadjustoutputandpricinginresponsetodemand.Consumerscanberewardedwithreducedratesbycuttingbackonconsumptionduringpeakperiods.Andcomputerizedsubstationscantalktoeachothersooverloadedcircuitshandoffelectricitytothosethathavenotfullyloadedhelpingtopreventblackouts. Someutilitycompanieshavelaunchedinitiativestogiveconsumersdataabouttheirenergyconsumptionhabitsinanefforttolowerenergybills.Smart-gridtechnologytakessuchprogramsfurtherbyautomatingelectricitydistributionwhichwouldmakegridsmorereliableandefficient. Bypartneringwithutilitiesthecompanyhopestotapinto$4.5billioninstimulusgrantsintendedtoencouragesmart-griddevelopment.WhenheannouncedthefundingPresidentObamapointedtoaprojectinBoulderColo.asanexampleofasuccessfulsmart-gridexperiment.Currentisoneofthecompaniesworkingontheproject. Current’schiefexecutiveTomCaseybelievesthetechnologywillhelputilitycompaniesbetterdistributeelectricityproducedbyrenewableresourcessuchassolarpanelsorwindfarms."Asmartgrid’ssystemcanbepairedupwiththerenewableresourcessothatwhentherenewablesourceisvaryingtheoverallloadcanbevariedaswell"CaseytoldtheHouseSelectCommitteeonEnergyIndependenceandGlobalWarming."Thiswillreduceoreliminatetheneedforbackupcoalorgas-basedpowergenerationplants. Whyisthesystemcalledsmart-gridtechnology
WhatdoyouthinkofAmericanhealthcaresystemMostpeoplewouldbe1bythehighqualityofmedicine2tomostAmericans.Thereisalotofspecializationagreatdealof3totheindividuala4amountofadvancedtechnicalequipmentand5effortnottomakemistakesbecauseofthefinancialriskwhichdoctorsandhospitalsmust6inthecourtsifthey7thingsbadly. ButtheAmericansareinamess.Totheproblemisthewayin8healthcareisorganizedand9.10topubicbeliefitisnotjustafreecompetitionsystem.Totheprivatesystemhasbeenjoinedalargepublicsystembecauseprivatecarewassimplynot11thelessfortunateandtheelderly. Butevenwiththishugepublicpartofthesystem12thisyearwilleatup84.5billiondollars—morethan10percentoftheU.S.Budget—alargenumberofAmericansareleft13.Theseincludeabouthalfthe11millionunemployedandthosewhofailtomeetthestrictlimits14incomefixedbyagovernmenttryingtomakesavingswhereitcan. Thebasicproblemhoweveristhatthereisnocentralcontrol15thehealthsystem.Thereisno16towhatdoctorsandhospitalschargefortheirservicesotherthanwhatthepublicisabletopay.Thenumberofdoctorshasshotupandpriceshaveclimbed.Whenfacedwithtoothacheasickchildoraheartattackalltheunfortunatepersonsconcernedcandoistopay17.Twothirdsofthepopulationare18bymedicalinsurance.Doctorschargeasmuchastheywant19thattheinsurancecompanywillpaythebill. TherisingcostofmedicineintheU.S.A.isamongthemostworryingproblemsfacingthecountry.In1981thecountry’shealthbillclimbed15.9percent—abouttwiceasfastasprices20general. 9
Whenthereisbloodinthewateritisonlynaturalthatdorsalfinsswirlaroundexcitedly.NowthatAmerica’shousingmarketisailingpredatorshavetheirsightsonthecountry’scredit-cardmarket.AnalystsatGoldmanSachsreckonthatcredit-cardlossescouldreach$99billionifcontagionspreadsfromsubprimemortgagestootherformsofconsumercredit.Signsofstrainareclearlyvisible.Therearerisesinboththecharge-offanddelinquencyrateswhichmeasuretheshareofbalancesthatareuncollectableormorethan30dayslaterespectively.HSBCannouncedlastmonththatithadtakena$1.4billionchargeinitsAmericanconsumer-financebusinesspartlybecauseofweaknessamongcardborrowers. Itistooearlytopanicthough.Charge-offsanddelinquenciesarestilllow.AccordingtoMoody’saratingagencythethird-quarterdelinquencyrateof3.89%wasalmostafullpercentagepointbelowthehistoricalaverage.Thedeteriorationinratescanbepartlyexplainedbytechnicalfactors.AchangeinAmerica’spersonal-bankruptcylawsin2005ledtoanabruptfallinbankruptcyfilingswhichinturnaccountforabigchunkofcredit-cardlosses;thenumberoffilingsandthuscharge-offrateswouldberisingagainwhetherornotoverallconditionsforborrowersweregettingworse. Theindustryalsoreportssolidpaymentrateswhichshowhowmuchoftheirdebtconsumerspayoffeachmonth.Andconfidenceincredit-cardasset-backedsecuritiesisprettyfirmdespiteparalysisinothercornersofstructuredfinance.DennisMoroneyofTowerGrouparesearchfirmpredictsthatissuancevolumesfor2007willendupbeing25%higherthanlastyear. Directchannelsofinfectionbetweenthesubprime-mortgagecrisisandthecredit-cardmarketcertainlyexist:consumersarelikeliertoloaduponcredit-carddebtnowthathome-equityloansaredryingup.Butcardissuerslookatcashflowratherthanassetvaluessofallinghousepricesdonotnecessarilytriggerachangeinborrowers’creditworthiness.Theymayevenworktoissuers’advantage.Theincentivesforconsumerstokeeppayingthemortgagedecreaseifpropertiesareworthlessthanthevalueoftheloan;carddebtriseshigherupthelistofrepaymentprioritiesasaresult. Cardissuersarealsoabletorespondmuchmoreswiftlyandflexiblytostormierconditionsthanmortgagelendersarebychanginginterestratesoralteringcreditlimits.Thatshouldintheoryreducetheriskofarapidrepricingofassets."Wearenotgoingtowakeuponedayandtotallyrevaluetheloans"saysGaryPerlinCapitalOne’schieffinancialofficer. Ifasuddensubprime-stylemeltdowninthecredit-cardmarketisimprobabletherisksofasustaineddownturnaremuchmorereal.IflowerhousepricesandacontractionincreditpushAmericaintorecessiontheindustrywillundoubtedlyfaceagrimmerfuture.Keepwatchingforthosedorsalfins. Inwhatwaydoesthesubprimemortgageinfluencecreditcardmarket
Inmostpartsoftheworldclimatechangeisaworryingsubject.NotsoinCalifornia.Atarecentgatheringofgreenluminaries--inafilmstar’shousenaturallyforthatishowseriousnessisoftenestablishedinLosAngeles--thedominantnotewasself-satisfactionatwhatthestatehasalreadyachieved.AndperhapsnobodyismorecomplacentthanArnoldSchwarzenegger.UnlikeA1GoreapresidentialcandidateturnedprophetofenvironmentaldoomCalifornia’sgovernorsoundscheerfulwhentalkingaboutclimatechange.Aswellhemight:ithasmadehispoliticalcareer. AlthoughCaliforniahaslongbeenanenvironmentally-consciousstateuntilrecentlygreenswereconcernedaboveallwithsmogandredwoodtrees."CoastofDreams"KevinStarr’sauthoritativehistoryofcontemporaryCaliforniapublishedin2004doesnotmentionclimatechange.Inthatyearthoughthenewly-electedMr.Schwarzeneggermadehisfirsttentativecallforwesternstatestoseekalternativestofossilfuels.Graduallyhenoticedthathiseffortstotackleclimatechangemetwithlessresistanceandmoreacclaimthanjustaboutallhisotherpolicies.Thesedaysitcanseemasthoughheworksonnothingelse. Mr.Schwarzenegger’stransformationfromscreenwarriortoeco-warriorwascompletedlastyearwhenhesignedabillimposinglegally-enforceablelimitsongreenhouse--gasemissions--afirstforAmerica.ThanksmostlytoitslackofcoalandheavyindustryCaliforniaisarelativelycleanstate.Ifitwereacountryitwouldbetheworld’seighth-biggesteconomybutonlyits16th-biggestpolluter.Itsbigproblemistransport--meaningmostlycarsandtruckswhichaccountformorethan40%ofitsgreenhouse-gasemissionscomparedwith32%inAmericaasawhole.Thestatewantstoratchetdownemissionslimitsonnewvehiclesbeginningin2009.Mr.Schwarzeneggerhasalsoorderedthatby2020vehiclefuelmustproduce10%lesscarbon:intheproductionaswellastheburningsoasimpleswitchtocorn-basedethanolisprobablyout. ThanksinparttoCalifornia’sexamplemostofthewesternstateshaveadoptedclimateactionplans.WhenitcomestosettingemissiontargetsthescenecanresembleaposedownataMr.Olympiacontest.Arizona’sclimate-changescholarsdecidedtosetatargetofcuttingthestate’semissionsto2000levelsby2020.ButJanetNapolitanothegovernorwasdeterminednottobeout-muscledbyCalifornia.ShehasdeclaredthatArizonawilltrytoreturnto2000emissionlevelsby2012. Californiahasnotjustinspiredotherstates;ithascreatedavanguardthatoughttobeabletoprodthefederalgovernmentintostrongernationalstandardsthanitwouldotherwiseconsider.ButCaliforniaisfindingiteasiertoexportitspoliciesthantoputthemintopracticeathome.InonewayCalifornia’sself-confidenceisfullyjustified.Ithasdonemorethananyotherstate--letalonethefederalgovernment--tofixAmerica’sattentiononclimatechange.Ithasalsomadeitseemasthoughtheproblemcanbesolved.Whichiswhyfailurewouldbesuchbadnews.AtthemomentCaliforniaisabeacontootherstates.Ifitfailsitwillbecomeanexcuseforinaction. Itcanbeinferredfromthetextthat
Intheidealizedversionofhowscienceisdonefactsabouttheworldarewaitingtobeobservedandcollectedbyobjectiveresearcherswhousethescientificmethodtocan’youttheirwork.Butintheeverydaypracticeofsciencediscoveryfrequentlyfollowsanambiguousandcomplicatedroute.Weaimtobeobjectivebutwecannotescapethecontextofouruniquelifeexperience.Priorknowledgeandinterestinfluencewhatweexperiencewhatwethinkourexperiencesmeanandthesubsequentactionswetake.Opportunitiesformisinterpretationerrorandself-deceptionabound. Consequentlydiscoveryclaimsshouldbethoughtofasprotoscience.Similartonewlystakedminingclaimstheyarelullofpotential.Butittakescollectivescrutinyandacceptancetotransformadiscoveryclaimintoamaturediscovery.Thisisthecredibilityprocessthroughwhichtheindividualresearcher’smeherenowbecomesthecommunity’sanyoneanywhereanytime.Objectiveknowledgeisthegoalnotthestartingpoint. Onceadiscoveryclaimbecomespublicthediscovererreceivesintellectualcredit.Butunlikewithminingclaimsthecommunitytakescontrolofwhathappensnext.Withinthecomplexsocialstructureofthescientificcommunityresearchersmakediscoveries;editorsandreviewersactasgatekeepersbycontrollingthepublicationprocess;otherscientistsusethenewfindingtosuittheirownpurposes;andfinallythepublicincludingotherscientistsreceivesthenewdiscoveryandpossiblyaccompanyingtechnology.Asadiscoveryclaimworksitwaythroughthecommunitytheinteractionandconfrontationbetweensharedandcompetingbeliefsaboutthescienceandthetechnologyinvolvedtransformsanindividual’sdiscoveryclaimintothecommunity’scrediblediscovery. Twoparadoxesexistthroughoutthiscredibilityprocess.FirstscientificworktendstofocusonsomeaspectofprevailingKnowledgethatisviewedasincompleteorincorrect.Littlerewardaccompaniesduplicationandconfirmationofwhatisalreadyknownandbelieved.Thegoalisnew-searchnotre-search.Notsurprisinglynewlypublisheddiscoveryclaimsandcrediblediscoveriesthatappeartobeimportantandconvincingwillalwaysbeopentochallengeandpotentialmodificationorrefutationbyfutureresearchers.Secondnoveltyitselffrequentlyprovokesdisbelief.NobelLaureateandphysiologistAlbertAzent-Gy6rgyioncedescribeddiscoveryas"seeingwhateverybodyhasseenandthinkingwhatnobodyhasthought."Butthinkingwhatnobodyelsehasthoughtandtellingotherswhattheyhavemissedmaynotchangetheirviews.Sometimesyearsarerequiredfortrulynoveldiscoveryclaimstobeacceptedandappreciated. Intheendcredibility"happens"toadiscoveryclaim—aprocessthatcorrespondstowhatphilosopherAnnetteBaierhasdescribedasthecommonsofthemind."Wereasontogetherchallengereviseandcompleteeachother’sreasoningandeachother’sconceptionsofreason. Whichofthefollowingwouldbethebesttitleofthetest
Istronglyagreewiththecontentionthatabsenceofchoiceisararecircumstanceprimarilybecausethiscontentionaccordswithcommonsenseandoureverydayexperienceashumanbeings.Besidesthereverseclaim-thatwedonothavefreechoice-servestounderminethenotionsofmoralaccountabilityandhumanequalitywhicharecriticaltothesurvivalofanydemocraticsociety. 41.Theroleoffreewillofhumansinchoice Commonsensedictatesthathumanshavefreewillandthereforethetrueabsenceofchoiceisveryrare.Theonlypossibleexceptionswouldinvolveextremeandrarecircumstancessuchassolitaryimprisonmentoraseverementalorphysicaldeficiency—anyofwhichmightpotentiallystripapersonofhisorherabilitytomakeconsciouschoices.Yetevenunderthesecircumstancesapersonstillretainschoicesaboutvoluntarybodilyfunctionsandmovement.Thusthecompleteabsenceofchoicewouldseemtobepossibleonlyinacomatosestateorindeath. 42.Thenatureofabsenceofchoice Peopleoftenclaimthatlife’scircumstancesleavethemwith"nochoice."Onemightfeeltrappedinajoboramarriage.Underfinancialduressapersonmightclaimthatheorshehas"nochoice"buttodeclarebankruptcytakeademeaningjoborevenlieorstealtoobtainmoney.Thefundamentalproblemwiththesesortsofclaimsisthattheclaimantsareonlyconsideringthosechoicesthatarenotviableorattractive.Thatispeopleinsituationssuchasthesehaveaninfinitenumberofchoices;it’sjustthatmanyofthechoicesareunappealingevenself-defeating. 43.Choiceisbeyondourcontrol Besidesthecontentionthatwearealmostinvariablyfreetochooseisfarmoreappealingfromasociopoliticalstandpointthantheoppositeclaim.Acompletetackofchoiceimpliesthateveryperson’sfateisdeterminedandthatwealllackfreewill.Accordingtothephilosophicalschoolof"strictdeterminism"everyeventincludinghumanactionsandChoicesthatoccursisphysicallynecessarygiventhelawsofnatureandeventsthatprecededthateventorchoice.Inotherwordsthe"choices"thatseempartoftheessenceofourbeingareactuallybeyondourcontrol. 44.Thelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism" Howeverthelogicalresultofstrictdeterminismandofthenew"scientificdeterminism"isthatwearenotmorallyaccountableforouractionsandchoiceseventhosethatharmotherindividualsorsociety.Moreoverthroughouthistorymonarchsanddictatorshaveembraceddeterminismatleastostensiblytobolstertheirclaimthatcertainindividualsarepreordainedtoassumepositionsofauthorityortorisetothetoplevelsofthesocioeconomicinfrastructure.Finallythenotionofscientificdeterminismopensthedoorforgeneticengineeringwhichposesapotentialthreattoequalityinsocioeconomicopportunityandcouldleadtothedevelopmentofaso-called"masterrace."Admittedlythesedisturbingimplicationsneitherprovenordisprovethedeterminists’claims. 45.Insistenceoftreewill Iwouldconcedethatsciencemighteventuallydisprovetheverynotionoffreewill.HoweveruntilthattimeI’lltrustmystrongintuitionthatfreewillisanessentialpartofourbeingashumansandaccordinglythathumansareresponsiblefortheirownchoicesandactions. [A]Forexamplealmosteverypersonwhoclaimstobetrappedinajobissimplychoosingtoretainacertainmeasureoffinancialsecurity.Thechoicetoforegothissecurityisalwaysavailablealthoughitmightcarryunpleasantconsequences. [B]Ourcollectivelifeexperienceisthatwemakechoicesanddecisionseverydayonacontinualbasis. [C]HoweverthedilemmaseamstobeunavoidablewhichgivespeoplealotofPainfullyexperiencewithit. [D]Insumdespitethefactthatweallexperienceoccasionalfeelingsofbeingtrappedandhavingnochoicethestatementisfundamentallycorrect. [E]Recentadvancesinmolecularbiologyandgeneticslendsomecredencetothedeterminists’positionthatasphysicalbeingsouractionsaredeterminedbyphysicalforcesbeyondourcontrol.Newresearchsuggeststhatthesephysicalforcesincludeourownindividualgeneticmakeup. [F]Assumingthatneitherfreewillnordeterminismhasbeenproventobethecorrectpositiontheformeristobepreferredbyanyhumanistandinanydemocraticsociety. 43
Anawkward-lookingcharactersuchasCyranodeBergeracmightsniffatthesuggestionbutrecentscientificresearchshowsbeautybrainsandbrawnmayinfactallbealliedwritesDrRajPersaud. 46Psychologistshaveconcludedthatwemaybedrawntothestereotypicallyattractivebecauseofwhattheirfacesrevealabouttheirintelligenceandsuccessinlaterlife.InAmericanresearchledbyProfessorLeslieZebrowitzofBrandeisUniversityhasshownanassociationbetweenfacialattractiveandIQ.Strangersbrieflyexposedtoatarget’sfacewereabletocorrectlyjudgeintelligenceatlevelssignificantlybetterthanchance. Thesameteamalsoresearchedhowaperson’sattractivenessmightbearrelationtotheirintelligence.Theyfoundthatgood-lookingpeopledidbetterinIQtestsastheyaged.47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.48Perhapsbecausethemoreattractivepeopleweretreatedasmoreintelligenttheyendeduphavingmorestimulatingandthereforeintelligence-enhancinglives. DoesthismeanthatyourfacereallycouldbeyourdestinySociologistsDrUlrichMuellerandDrAllanMazuroftheUniversityofMarburginGermanyrecentlyanalyzedthefinalyearphotographsofthe1950graduatesofWestPointintheUnitedStates.Dominantfacialappearancesturnedouttobeaconsistentpredictoroflater-rankattainment: Againtheybelievedtherecouldbeaself-fulfillingeffect.49Becausesomemenlookedmoreauthoritativetheynaturallydrewrespectandobediencefromotherswhichinturnassistedtheirrisethroughtheranks. AteamattheRoyalCollegeofSurgeonsinDublinhasbeeninvestigatingthesensitivesubjectoflinksbetweenphysicalandmentalabnormalities.LedbyDoctorsRobinHennessyandJohnWaddingtontheteamusedanewlasersurface-scanningtechniquetomakea3-Danalysisofhowfacialshapemightvarywithbrainstructure.Theirfindingsshowedthatinearlyfetallifebrainandfacedevelopmentareintimatelyconnected.Fromthistheyconcludedthatabnormalitiesinbrainelaborationprobablyalsoaffectfacedevelopment. ThisaccordingtothemexplainsthestrikingfacialfeaturesofsomeonewithDown’ssyndrome.50Usingsimilartechniquestheteamalsodemonstratedhowotherdisorderslinkedtobrainaberrationscouldbeassociatedwithfacialalterations. Sotheverylatestscientificresearchsuggeststhatnobodyshouldtrytolooktooobviouslydifferentfromaverage. 47Theirresearchsoughttoprovethathowapersonperceivedhimselfandwasperceivedbyotherspredictedhowintelligentheapparentlybecamemoreaccuratelythanhispastintelligence.
Whenthereisbloodinthewateritisonlynaturalthatdorsalfinsswirlaroundexcitedly.NowthatAmerica’shousingmarketisailingpredatorshavetheirsightsonthecountry’scredit-cardmarket.AnalystsatGoldmanSachsreckonthatcredit-cardlossescouldreach$99billionifcontagionspreadsfromsubprimemortgagestootherformsofconsumercredit.Signsofstrainareclearlyvisible.Therearerisesinboththecharge-offanddelinquencyrateswhichmeasuretheshareofbalancesthatareuncollectableormorethan30dayslaterespectively.HSBCannouncedlastmonththatithadtakena$1.4billionchargeinitsAmericanconsumer-financebusinesspartlybecauseofweaknessamongcardborrowers. Itistooearlytopanicthough.Charge-offsanddelinquenciesarestilllow.AccordingtoMoody’saratingagencythethird-quarterdelinquencyrateof3.89%wasalmostafullpercentagepointbelowthehistoricalaverage.Thedeteriorationinratescanbepartlyexplainedbytechnicalfactors.AchangeinAmerica’spersonal-bankruptcylawsin2005ledtoanabruptfallinbankruptcyfilingswhichinturnaccountforabigchunkofcredit-cardlosses;thenumberoffilingsandthuscharge-offrateswouldberisingagainwhetherornotoverallconditionsforborrowersweregettingworse. Theindustryalsoreportssolidpaymentrateswhichshowhowmuchoftheirdebtconsumerspayoffeachmonth.Andconfidenceincredit-cardasset-backedsecuritiesisprettyfirmdespiteparalysisinothercornersofstructuredfinance.DennisMoroneyofTowerGrouparesearchfirmpredictsthatissuancevolumesfor2007willendupbeing25%higherthanlastyear. Directchannelsofinfectionbetweenthesubprime-mortgagecrisisandthecredit-cardmarketcertainlyexist:consumersarelikeliertoloaduponcredit-carddebtnowthathome-equityloansaredryingup.Butcardissuerslookatcashflowratherthanassetvaluessofallinghousepricesdonotnecessarilytriggerachangeinborrowers’creditworthiness.Theymayevenworktoissuers’advantage.Theincentivesforconsumerstokeeppayingthemortgagedecreaseifpropertiesareworthlessthanthevalueoftheloan;carddebtriseshigherupthelistofrepaymentprioritiesasaresult. Cardissuersarealsoabletorespondmuchmoreswiftlyandflexiblytostormierconditionsthanmortgagelendersarebychanginginterestratesoralteringcreditlimits.Thatshouldintheoryreducetheriskofarapidrepricingofassets."Wearenotgoingtowakeuponedayandtotallyrevaluetheloans"saysGaryPerlinCapitalOne’schieffinancialofficer. Ifasuddensubprime-stylemeltdowninthecredit-cardmarketisimprobabletherisksofasustaineddownturnaremuchmorereal.IflowerhousepricesandacontractionincreditpushAmericaintorecessiontheindustrywillundoubtedlyfaceagrimmerfuture.Keepwatchingforthosedorsalfins. WhichofthefollowingstatementsmayNOTsupporttheexpressionItistooearlytopanicthoughinthesecondparagraph
"We’reusingthewrongword"saysSeanDrysdaleadesperatedoctorfromaruralhospitalatHlabisainnorthernKwaZulu-Natal."Thisisn’tanepidemicit’sadisaster."ArecentUNIEFreportwhichstatesthatalmostone-thirdofSwaziland’s900000peopleareinfectedwithHIVthevirusthatcausesAIDSsupportsthisdiagnosis.HIVisspreadingfasterinsouthernAfricathananywhereelseintheworld. ButisanyonepayingattentionDespitethefactthatmostoftheworld’s33.5millionHIV/AIDScasesareinsub-SaharanAfrica—withanadditional4millioninfectedeachyear—theprioritiesatlastweek’sOrganizationofAfricanUnitysummitwereconflictresolutionandeconomiesdevelopment.Yettheepidemiccouldhaveagreatereffectoneconomicdevelopment—orratherthelackofit—thanmanypoliticianssuspect. Whilebusinessleadersaremoreconcernedaboutthe2Kmillenniumbugthanthelong-termeffectofAIDSstatisticsshowthattheworkfareinSouthAfricaforinstanceislikelytobe20%HIVpositivebynextyear.Medicalofficialsandresearcherswarnthatnotasinglecountryintheregionhasacohesivegovernmentstrategytotacklethecrisis. ThewaymanagersaddressAIDSintheworkplacewilldeterminewhethertheircompaniessurvivethefirstdecadeofthe21stcenturysaysDeaneMooreanactuaryforSouthAfrica’sMetropolitanLifeInsuranceCompany.MooreestimatesthatinSouthAfricatherewillbe580000newAIDScasesayearandalifeexpectancyofjust38by2010."We’llbebacktotheMiddleAges"saysDrysdalewhosehospitalisinoneoftheareasinSouthAfricawiththehighestratesofHIVinfection."Thegraphisheadingtowardthevertical.Andyetpeoplearestillnottakingitseriously." MostsouthernAfricancountriesaresimplytoopoortosupplymorethanbasichealthservicesletalonemedicinestoconfrontthecrisis.PatientsinsomegovernmenthospitalsinHararehavetosupplytheirownbeddingfooddrugsandinsomecaseseventheirownnurses.Zimbabwe’sfraildomesticeconomydependstoalargeextentoninformalenterprisesandsmallbusinessesmanyofwhicharegoingbankruptasAIDStakesitstollonownersandemployees."Therippleeffectisdevastating"saysHarareAIDSresearcherReneLoewenson. MoreominousaretheimplicationsforSouthAfricawithasophisticatedindustrialinfrastructureaswellasawidespreadinformalsector.WhiletheSouthAfricangovernmentisactiveinpromotingAIDSeducationithasn’tthemoneymanpowerormaterialtocopewiththeattackofAIDS. WhichisthemajorreasonfortheAIDSsituationinSouthAfrica
热门题库
更多
高考生物
高考政治
高考历史
国家统考科目
香港法概论
反间谍法
__学
合同法
证据学
民事诉讼法学
民法学
刑法学
消费者权益保护法
法理学
竞争法
国际公法