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AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Theexampleofozonereductionisusedtoshowthe
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
中世纪教会学校分为三类其中不包括
Thatexperiencesinfluencesubsequentbehaviourisevidenceofanobviousbutneverthelessremarkableactivitycalledremembering.Learningcouldnotoccurwithoutthefunctionpopularlynamedmemory.Constantpracticehassuchaneffectonmemoryastoleadtoskilfulperformanceonthepianotorecitationofapoemandeventoreadingandunderstandingthesewords.So-calledintelligentbehaviourdemandsmemoryrememberingbeingaprimaryrequirementforreasoning.Theabilitytosolveanyproblemoreventorecognizethataproblemexistsdependsonmemory.Typicallythedecisiontocrossastreetisbasedonrememberingmanyearlierexperiences. Practiceorreviewtendstobuildandmaintainmemoryforataskorforanylearnedmaterial.Overaperiodofnopracticewhathasbeenlearnedtendstobeforgotten;andtheadaptiveconsequencesmaynotseemobvious.Yetdramaticinstancesofsuddenforgettingcanbeseentobeadaptive.Inthissensetheabilitytoforgetcanbeinterpretedtohavesurvivedthroughaprocessofnaturalselectioninanimals.Indeedwhenone’’smemoryofanemotionallypainfulexperienceleadstoseriousanxietyforgettingmayproducerelief.Neverthelessanevolutionaryinterpretationmightmakeitdifficulttounderstandhowthecommonlygradualprocessofforgettingsurvivednaturalselection. Inthinkingabouttheevolutionofmemorytogetherwithallitspossibleaspectsitishelpfultoconsiderwhatwouldhappenifmemoriesfailedtofade.Forgettingclearlyaidsorientationintimesinceoldmemoriesweakenandthenewtendtostandoutprovidingcluesforinferringduration.Withoutforgettingadaptiveabilitywouldsuffer;forexamplelearnedbehaviourthatmighthavebeencorrectadecadeagomaynolongerbe.Casesarerecordedofpeoplewhobyordinarystandardsforgotsolittlethattheireverydayactivitieswerefullofconfusion.Thusforgettingseemstoservethesurvivaloftheindividualandthespecies. Anotherlineofthoughtassumesamemorystoragesystemoflimitedcapacitythatprovidesadaptiveflexibilityspecificallythroughforgetting.Inthisviewcontinualadjustmentsaremadebetweenlearningormemorystorageinputandforgettingoutput.Indeedthereisevidencethattherateatwhichindividualsforgetisdirectlyrelatedtohowmuchtheyhavelearned.Suchdataoffergrosssupportofcontemporarymodelsofmemorythatassumeaninput-outputbalance. Inthisarticletheauthortriestointerpretthefunctionof________________.
在论灵魂一书中亚里士多德将人的生命对应于
寓学习于游戏的首创者
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
雅典的教育制度注重
WhenitcomestotheslowingeconomyEllenSperoisn’’tbitinghernailsjustyet.Butthe47-year-oldmanicuristisn’’tcuttingfilingorpolishingasmanynailsasshe’’dliketoeither.Mostofherclientsspend＄12to＄50weeklybutlastmonthtwolongtimecustomerssuddenlystoppedshowingup.Speroblamesthesofteningeconomy.I’’magoodeconomicindicatorshesays.Iprovideaservicethatpeoplecandowithoutwhenthey’’reconcernedaboutsavingsomedollars.SoSperoisdownscalingshoppingatmiddle-browDillard’’sdepartmentstorenearhersuburbanClevelandhomeinsteadofNeimanMarcus.Idon’’tknowifotherclientsaregoingtoabandonmetooshesays. EvenbeforeAlanGreenspan’’sadmissionthatAmerica’’sred-hoteconomyiscoolinglotsofworkingfolkshadalreadyseensignsoftheslowdownthemselves.FromcardealershipstoGapoutletssaleshavebeenlaggingformonthsasshopperstempertheirspending.Forretailerswholastyeartookin24percentoftheirrevenuebetweenThanksgivingandChristmasthecautiousapproachiscomingatacrucialtime.Alreadyexpertssayholidaysalesareoff7percentfromlastyear’’space.Butdon’’tsoundanyalarmsjustyet.Consumersseemonlymildlyconcernednotpanickedandmanysaytheyremainoptimisticabouttheeconomy’’slong-termprospectsevenastheydosomemodestbelt-tightening. Consumerssaythey’’renotindespairbecausedespitethedreadfulheadlinestheirownfortunesstillfeelprettygood.Homepricesareholdingsteadyinmostregions.InManhattanthere’’sanewgoldrushhappeninginthe＄4millionto＄10millionrangepredominantlyfedbyWallStreetbonusessaysbrokerBarbaraCorcoran.InSanFranciscopricesarestillrisingevenasfrenziedoverbiddingquiets.Insteadof20to30offersnowmaybeyouonlygettwoorthreesaysJohnTealdiaBayAreareal-estatebroker.Andmostfolksstillfeelprettycomfortableabouttheirabilitytofindandkeepajob. Manyfolksseesilverliningstothisslowdown.Potentialhomebuyerswouldcheerforlowerinterestrates.Employerswouldn’’tmindalittlefewerbubblesinthejobmarket.Manyconsumersseemtohavebeeninfluencedbystock-marketswingswhichinvestorsnowviewasanecessaryingredienttoasustainedboom.Dinersmightseeanupsidetoo.GettingatableatManhattan’’shotnewAlainDucasserestaurantusedtobeimpossible.Notanymore.ForthatGreenspan&Co.maystillbeworthtoasting. ByEllenSperoisn’’tbitinghernailsjustyetLine1Paragraph1theauthormeans
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Theywerebyfarthelargestandmostdistantobjectsthatscientistshadeverdetected:astripofenormouscosmiccloudsome15billionlight-yearsfromearth.71.Butevenmoreimportantitwasthefarthestthatscientistshadbeenabletolookintothepastforwhattheywereseeingwerethepatternsandstructuresthatexisted15billionyearsago.Thatwasjustaboutthemomentthattheuniversewasborn.Whattheresearchersfoundwasatoncebothamazingandexpected:theUSNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration’’sCosmicBackgroundExplorersatellite―Cobe―haddiscoveredlandmarkevidencethattheuniversedidinfactbeginwiththeprimevalexplosionthathasbecomeknownastheBigBangthetheorythattheuniverseoriginatedinanexplosionfromasinglemassofenergy. 72.TheexistenceofthegiantcloudswasvirtuallyrequiredfortheBigBangfirstputforwardinthe1920stomaintainitsreignasthedominantexplanationofthecosmos.Accordingtothetheorytheuniverseburstintobeingasasubmicroscopicunimaginablydenseknotofpureenergythatflewoutwardinalldirectionsemittingradiationasitwentcondensingintoparticlesandthenintoatomsofgas.Overbillionsofyearsthegaswascompressedbygravityintogalaxiesstarsplantsandeventuallyevenhumans. Cobeisdesignedtoseejustthebiggeststructuresbutastronomerswouldliketoseemuchsmallerhotspotsaswelltheseedsoflocalobjectslikeclustersandsuperclustersofgalaxies.Theyshouldn’’thavelongtowait.73.Astrophysicistsworkingwithground-baseddetectorsattheSouthPoleandballoon-borneinstrumentsareclosinginonsuchstructuresandmayreporttheirfindingssoon. 74.IfthesmallhotspotslookasexpectedthatwillbeatriumphforyetanotherscientificideaarefinementoftheBigBangcalledtheinflationaryuniversetheory.Inflationsaysthatvery’’earlyontheuniverseexpandedinsizebymorethanatrillionfoldinmuchlessthanasecondpropelledbyasortofantigravity. 75.Oddthoughitsoundscosmicinflationisascientificallyplausibleconsequenceofsomerespectedideasinelementary-particlephysicsandmanyastrophysicistshavebeenconvincedforthebetterpartofadecadethatitistrue. Theywerebyfarthelargestandmostdistantobjectsthatscientistshadeverdetected:astripofenormouscosmiccloudsome15billionlight-yearsfromearth.71.Butevenmoreimportantitwasthefarthestthatscientistshadbeenabletolookintothepastforwhattheywereseeingwerethepatternsandstructuresthatexisted15billionyearsago.Thatwasjustaboutthemomentthattheuniversewasborn.Whattheresearchersfoundwasatoncebothamazingandexpected:theUSNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration’’sCosmicBackgroundExplorersatellite―Cobe―haddiscoveredlandmarkevidencethattheuniversedidinfactbeginwiththeprimevalexplosionthathasbecomeknownastheBigBangthetheorythattheuniverseoriginatedinanexplosionfromasinglemassofenergy. 72.TheexistenceofthegiantcloudswasvirtuallyrequiredfortheBigBangfirstputforwardinthe1920stomaintainitsreignasthedominantexplanationofthecosmos.Accordingtothetheorytheuniverseburstintobeingasasubmicroscopicunimaginablydenseknotofpureenergythatflewoutwardinalldirectionsemittingradiationasitwentcondensingintoparticlesandthenintoatomsofgas.Overbillionsofyearsthegaswascompressedbygravityintogalaxiesstarsplantsandeventuallyevenhumans. Cobeisdesignedtoseejustthebiggeststructuresbutastronomerswouldliketoseemuchsmallerhotspotsaswelltheseedsoflocalobjectslikeclustersandsuperclustersofgalaxies.Theyshouldn’’thavelongtowait.73.Astrophysicistsworkingwithground-baseddetectorsattheSouthPoleandballoon-borneinstrumentsareclosinginonsuchstructuresandmayreporttheirfindingssoon. 74.IfthesmallhotspotslookasexpectedthatwillbeatriumphforyetanotherscientificideaarefinementoftheBigBangcalledtheinflationaryuniversetheory.Inflationsaysthatvery’’earlyontheuniverseexpandedinsizebymorethanatrillionfoldinmuchlessthanasecondpropelledbyasortofantigravity. 75.Oddthoughitsoundscosmicinflationisascientificallyplausibleconsequenceofsomerespectedideasinelementary-particlephysicsandmanyastrophysicistshavebeenconvincedforthebetterpartofadecadethatitistrue.
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Toavoidthevariousfoolishopinionstowhichmankindisliablenosuperhumangeniusisrequired.Afewsimpleruleswillkeepyounotfromallerrorsbutfromsillyerrors. Ifthematterisonethatcanbesettledbyobservationmaketheobservationyourself.AristotlecouldhaveavoidedthemistakeofthinkingthatwomenhavefewerteeththanmenbythesimpledeviceofaskingMrs.Aristotletokeephermouthopenwhilehecounted.Hedidnotdosobecausehethoughtheknew.Thinkingthatyouknowwheninfactyoudon’’tisafatalmistaketowhichweareallliable. Manymattershoweverarelesseasilybroughttothetestofexperience.Iflikemostofmankindyouhavestrongconvictionsonmanysuchmatterstherearewaysinwhichyoucanmakeyourselfawareofyourownprejudice.Ifanopinioncontrarytoyourownmakesyouangrythatisasignthatyousubconsciouslyareawareofhavingnogoodreasonforthinkingasyoudo.IfsomeonemaintainsthattwoandtwoarefiveorthatIcelandisontheequatoryoufeelpityratherthanangerunlessyouknowsolittleofarithmeticorgeographythathisopinionshakesyourowncontraryconviction.Themostsavagecontroversiesarethoseaboutmattersastowhichthereisnogoodevidenceeitherway.Sowheneveryoufindyourselfgettingangryaboutadifferenceofopinionbeonyourguard;youwillprobablyfindonexaminationthatyourbeliefisgoingbeyondwhattheevidencejustifies. Forthosewhohaveenoughpsychologicalimaginationitisagoodplantoimagineanargumentwithapersonhavingadifferentopinion.Thishasoneadvantageandonlyoneascomparedwithactualconversationwithopponents;thisoneadvantageisthatthemethodisnotsubjecttothesamelimitationsoftimeandspace.MahatmaGandhi圣雄甘地considereditunfortunatetohaverailwaysandsteamboatsandmachinery;hewouldhavelikedtoundothewholeoftheindustrialrevolution.YoumayneverhaveanopportunityofactuallymeetinganyonewhoholdsthisopinionbecauseinWesterncountriesmostpeopletaketheadvantageofmoderntechnologyforgranted.ButifyouwanttomakesurethatyouarerightinagreeingwiththeprevailingopinionyouwillfinditagoodplantotesttheargumentsthatoccurtoyoubyconsideringwhatGandhimighthavesaidinrefutationofthem.Ihavesometimesbeenledactuallytochangemymindasaresultofthiskindofimaginarydialogue.FurthermoreIhavefrequentlyfoundmyselfgrowingmoreagreeablethroughrealizingthepossiblereasonablenessofahypotheticalopponent. Mostpeopleareunlikelytobesubjecttosillyerrors
智者派提出了古希腊课程中的
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Toavoidthevariousfoolishopinionstowhichmankindisliablenosuperhumangeniusisrequired.Afewsimpleruleswillkeepyounotfromallerrorsbutfromsillyerrors. Ifthematterisonethatcanbesettledbyobservationmaketheobservationyourself.AristotlecouldhaveavoidedthemistakeofthinkingthatwomenhavefewerteeththanmenbythesimpledeviceofaskingMrs.Aristotletokeephermouthopenwhilehecounted.Hedidnotdosobecausehethoughtheknew.Thinkingthatyouknowwheninfactyoudon’’tisafatalmistaketowhichweareallliable. Manymattershoweverarelesseasilybroughttothetestofexperience.Iflikemostofmankindyouhavestrongconvictionsonmanysuchmatterstherearewaysinwhichyoucanmakeyourselfawareofyourownprejudice.Ifanopinioncontrarytoyourownmakesyouangrythatisasignthatyousubconsciouslyareawareofhavingnogoodreasonforthinkingasyoudo.IfsomeonemaintainsthattwoandtwoarefiveorthatIcelandisontheequatoryoufeelpityratherthanangerunlessyouknowsolittleofarithmeticorgeographythathisopinionshakesyourowncontraryconviction.Themostsavagecontroversiesarethoseaboutmattersastowhichthereisnogoodevidenceeitherway.Sowheneveryoufindyourselfgettingangryaboutadifferenceofopinionbeonyourguard;youwillprobablyfindonexaminationthatyourbeliefisgoingbeyondwhattheevidencejustifies. Forthosewhohaveenoughpsychologicalimaginationitisagoodplantoimagineanargumentwithapersonhavingadifferentopinion.Thishasoneadvantageandonlyoneascomparedwithactualconversationwithopponents;thisoneadvantageisthatthemethodisnotsubjecttothesamelimitationsoftimeandspace.MahatmaGandhi圣雄甘地considereditunfortunatetohaverailwaysandsteamboatsandmachinery;hewouldhavelikedtoundothewholeoftheindustrialrevolution.YoumayneverhaveanopportunityofactuallymeetinganyonewhoholdsthisopinionbecauseinWesterncountriesmostpeopletaketheadvantageofmoderntechnologyforgranted.ButifyouwanttomakesurethatyouarerightinagreeingwiththeprevailingopinionyouwillfinditagoodplantotesttheargumentsthatoccurtoyoubyconsideringwhatGandhimighthavesaidinrefutationofthem.Ihavesometimesbeenledactuallytochangemymindasaresultofthiskindofimaginarydialogue.FurthermoreIhavefrequentlyfoundmyselfgrowingmoreagreeablethroughrealizingthepossiblereasonablenessofahypotheticalopponent. Theauthorintendstotellusthat
WhenitcomestotheslowingeconomyEllenSperoisn’’tbitinghernailsjustyet.Butthe47-year-oldmanicuristisn’’tcuttingfilingorpolishingasmanynailsasshe’’dliketoeither.Mostofherclientsspend＄12to＄50weeklybutlastmonthtwolongtimecustomerssuddenlystoppedshowingup.Speroblamesthesofteningeconomy.I’’magoodeconomicindicatorshesays.Iprovideaservicethatpeoplecandowithoutwhenthey’’reconcernedaboutsavingsomedollars.SoSperoisdownscalingshoppingatmiddle-browDillard’’sdepartmentstorenearhersuburbanClevelandhomeinsteadofNeimanMarcus.Idon’’tknowifotherclientsaregoingtoabandonmetooshesays. EvenbeforeAlanGreenspan’’sadmissionthatAmerica’’sred-hoteconomyiscoolinglotsofworkingfolkshadalreadyseensignsoftheslowdownthemselves.FromcardealershipstoGapoutletssaleshavebeenlaggingformonthsasshopperstempertheirspending.Forretailerswholastyeartookin24percentoftheirrevenuebetweenThanksgivingandChristmasthecautiousapproachiscomingatacrucialtime.Alreadyexpertssayholidaysalesareoff7percentfromlastyear’’space.Butdon’’tsoundanyalarmsjustyet.Consumersseemonlymildlyconcernednotpanickedandmanysaytheyremainoptimisticabouttheeconomy’’slong-termprospectsevenastheydosomemodestbelt-tightening. Consumerssaythey’’renotindespairbecausedespitethedreadfulheadlinestheirownfortunesstillfeelprettygood.Homepricesareholdingsteadyinmostregions.InManhattanthere’’sanewgoldrushhappeninginthe＄4millionto＄10millionrangepredominantlyfedbyWallStreetbonusessaysbrokerBarbaraCorcoran.InSanFranciscopricesarestillrisingevenasfrenziedoverbiddingquiets.Insteadof20to30offersnowmaybeyouonlygettwoorthreesaysJohnTealdiaBayAreareal-estatebroker.Andmostfolksstillfeelprettycomfortableabouttheirabilitytofindandkeepajob. Manyfolksseesilverliningstothisslowdown.Potentialhomebuyerswouldcheerforlowerinterestrates.Employerswouldn’’tmindalittlefewerbubblesinthejobmarket.Manyconsumersseemtohavebeeninfluencedbystock-marketswingswhichinvestorsnowviewasanecessaryingredienttoasustainedboom.Dinersmightseeanupsidetoo.GettingatableatManhattan’’shotnewAlainDucasserestaurantusedtobeimpossible.Notanymore.ForthatGreenspan&Co.maystillbeworthtoasting. Whenmentioningthe＄4millionto＄10millionrangeLine3Paragraph3theauthoristalkingabout
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Theywerebyfarthelargestandmostdistantobjectsthatscientistshadeverdetected:astripofenormouscosmiccloudsome15billionlight-yearsfromearth.71.Butevenmoreimportantitwasthefarthestthatscientistshadbeenabletolookintothepastforwhattheywereseeingwerethepatternsandstructuresthatexisted15billionyearsago.Thatwasjustaboutthemomentthattheuniversewasborn.Whattheresearchersfoundwasatoncebothamazingandexpected:theUSNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration’’sCosmicBackgroundExplorersatellite―Cobe―haddiscoveredlandmarkevidencethattheuniversedidinfactbeginwiththeprimevalexplosionthathasbecomeknownastheBigBangthetheorythattheuniverseoriginatedinanexplosionfromasinglemassofenergy. 72.TheexistenceofthegiantcloudswasvirtuallyrequiredfortheBigBangfirstputforwardinthe1920stomaintainitsreignasthedominantexplanationofthecosmos.Accordingtothetheorytheuniverseburstintobeingasasubmicroscopicunimaginablydenseknotofpureenergythatflewoutwardinalldirectionsemittingradiationasitwentcondensingintoparticlesandthenintoatomsofgas.Overbillionsofyearsthegaswascompressedbygravityintogalaxiesstarsplantsandeventuallyevenhumans. Cobeisdesignedtoseejustthebiggeststructuresbutastronomerswouldliketoseemuchsmallerhotspotsaswelltheseedsoflocalobjectslikeclustersandsuperclustersofgalaxies.Theyshouldn’’thavelongtowait.73.Astrophysicistsworkingwithground-baseddetectorsattheSouthPoleandballoon-borneinstrumentsareclosinginonsuchstructuresandmayreporttheirfindingssoon. 74.IfthesmallhotspotslookasexpectedthatwillbeatriumphforyetanotherscientificideaarefinementoftheBigBangcalledtheinflationaryuniversetheory.Inflationsaysthatvery’’earlyontheuniverseexpandedinsizebymorethanatrillionfoldinmuchlessthanasecondpropelledbyasortofantigravity. 75.Oddthoughitsoundscosmicinflationisascientificallyplausibleconsequenceofsomerespectedideasinelementary-particlephysicsandmanyastrophysicistshavebeenconvincedforthebetterpartofadecadethatitistrue.
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Toavoidthevariousfoolishopinionstowhichmankindisliablenosuperhumangeniusisrequired.Afewsimpleruleswillkeepyounotfromallerrorsbutfromsillyerrors. Ifthematterisonethatcanbesettledbyobservationmaketheobservationyourself.AristotlecouldhaveavoidedthemistakeofthinkingthatwomenhavefewerteeththanmenbythesimpledeviceofaskingMrs.Aristotletokeephermouthopenwhilehecounted.Hedidnotdosobecausehethoughtheknew.Thinkingthatyouknowwheninfactyoudon’’tisafatalmistaketowhichweareallliable. Manymattershoweverarelesseasilybroughttothetestofexperience.Iflikemostofmankindyouhavestrongconvictionsonmanysuchmatterstherearewaysinwhichyoucanmakeyourselfawareofyourownprejudice.Ifanopinioncontrarytoyourownmakesyouangrythatisasignthatyousubconsciouslyareawareofhavingnogoodreasonforthinkingasyoudo.IfsomeonemaintainsthattwoandtwoarefiveorthatIcelandisontheequatoryoufeelpityratherthanangerunlessyouknowsolittleofarithmeticorgeographythathisopinionshakesyourowncontraryconviction.Themostsavagecontroversiesarethoseaboutmattersastowhichthereisnogoodevidenceeitherway.Sowheneveryoufindyourselfgettingangryaboutadifferenceofopinionbeonyourguard;youwillprobablyfindonexaminationthatyourbeliefisgoingbeyondwhattheevidencejustifies. Forthosewhohaveenoughpsychologicalimaginationitisagoodplantoimagineanargumentwithapersonhavingadifferentopinion.Thishasoneadvantageandonlyoneascomparedwithactualconversationwithopponents;thisoneadvantageisthatthemethodisnotsubjecttothesamelimitationsoftimeandspace.MahatmaGandhi圣雄甘地considereditunfortunatetohaverailwaysandsteamboatsandmachinery;hewouldhavelikedtoundothewholeoftheindustrialrevolution.YoumayneverhaveanopportunityofactuallymeetinganyonewhoholdsthisopinionbecauseinWesterncountriesmostpeopletaketheadvantageofmoderntechnologyforgranted.ButifyouwanttomakesurethatyouarerightinagreeingwiththeprevailingopinionyouwillfinditagoodplantotesttheargumentsthatoccurtoyoubyconsideringwhatGandhimighthavesaidinrefutationofthem.Ihavesometimesbeenledactuallytochangemymindasaresultofthiskindofimaginarydialogue.FurthermoreIhavefrequentlyfoundmyselfgrowingmoreagreeablethroughrealizingthepossiblereasonablenessofahypotheticalopponent. Theauthortriestoconvinceusofthefactthat
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Accordingtothetextdecreasedevaporationismostlikelytobringabout
亚里士多德认为在形成人的三种因素中均要服从于
Theywerebyfarthelargestandmostdistantobjectsthatscientistshadeverdetected:astripofenormouscosmiccloudsome15billionlight-yearsfromearth.71.Butevenmoreimportantitwasthefarthestthatscientistshadbeenabletolookintothepastforwhattheywereseeingwerethepatternsandstructuresthatexisted15billionyearsago.Thatwasjustaboutthemomentthattheuniversewasborn.Whattheresearchersfoundwasatoncebothamazingandexpected:theUSNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration’’sCosmicBackgroundExplorersatellite―Cobe―haddiscoveredlandmarkevidencethattheuniversedidinfactbeginwiththeprimevalexplosionthathasbecomeknownastheBigBangthetheorythattheuniverseoriginatedinanexplosionfromasinglemassofenergy. 72.TheexistenceofthegiantcloudswasvirtuallyrequiredfortheBigBangfirstputforwardinthe1920stomaintainitsreignasthedominantexplanationofthecosmos.Accordingtothetheorytheuniverseburstintobeingasasubmicroscopicunimaginablydenseknotofpureenergythatflewoutwardinalldirectionsemittingradiationasitwentcondensingintoparticlesandthenintoatomsofgas.Overbillionsofyearsthegaswascompressedbygravityintogalaxiesstarsplantsandeventuallyevenhumans. Cobeisdesignedtoseejustthebiggeststructuresbutastronomerswouldliketoseemuchsmallerhotspotsaswelltheseedsoflocalobjectslikeclustersandsuperclustersofgalaxies.Theyshouldn’’thavelongtowait.73.Astrophysicistsworkingwithground-baseddetectorsattheSouthPoleandballoon-borneinstrumentsareclosinginonsuchstructuresandmayreporttheirfindingssoon. 74.IfthesmallhotspotslookasexpectedthatwillbeatriumphforyetanotherscientificideaarefinementoftheBigBangcalledtheinflationaryuniversetheory.Inflationsaysthatvery’’earlyontheuniverseexpandedinsizebymorethanatrillionfoldinmuchlessthanasecondpropelledbyasortofantigravity. 75.Oddthoughitsoundscosmicinflationisascientificallyplausibleconsequenceofsomerespectedideasinelementary-particlephysicsandmanyastrophysicistshavebeenconvincedforthebetterpartofadecadethatitistrue.
WhenitcomestotheslowingeconomyEllenSperoisn’’tbitinghernailsjustyet.Butthe47-year-oldmanicuristisn’’tcuttingfilingorpolishingasmanynailsasshe’’dliketoeither.Mostofherclientsspend＄12to＄50weeklybutlastmonthtwolongtimecustomerssuddenlystoppedshowingup.Speroblamesthesofteningeconomy.I’’magoodeconomicindicatorshesays.Iprovideaservicethatpeoplecandowithoutwhenthey’’reconcernedaboutsavingsomedollars.SoSperoisdownscalingshoppingatmiddle-browDillard’’sdepartmentstorenearhersuburbanClevelandhomeinsteadofNeimanMarcus.Idon’’tknowifotherclientsaregoingtoabandonmetooshesays. EvenbeforeAlanGreenspan’’sadmissionthatAmerica’’sred-hoteconomyiscoolinglotsofworkingfolkshadalreadyseensignsoftheslowdownthemselves.FromcardealershipstoGapoutletssaleshavebeenlaggingformonthsasshopperstempertheirspending.Forretailerswholastyeartookin24percentoftheirrevenuebetweenThanksgivingandChristmasthecautiousapproachiscomingatacrucialtime.Alreadyexpertssayholidaysalesareoff7percentfromlastyear’’space.Butdon’’tsoundanyalarmsjustyet.Consumersseemonlymildlyconcernednotpanickedandmanysaytheyremainoptimisticabouttheeconomy’’slong-termprospectsevenastheydosomemodestbelt-tightening. Consumerssaythey’’renotindespairbecausedespitethedreadfulheadlinestheirownfortunesstillfeelprettygood.Homepricesareholdingsteadyinmostregions.InManhattanthere’’sanewgoldrushhappeninginthe＄4millionto＄10millionrangepredominantlyfedbyWallStreetbonusessaysbrokerBarbaraCorcoran.InSanFranciscopricesarestillrisingevenasfrenziedoverbiddingquiets.Insteadof20to30offersnowmaybeyouonlygettwoorthreesaysJohnTealdiaBayAreareal-estatebroker.Andmostfolksstillfeelprettycomfortableabouttheirabilitytofindandkeepajob. Manyfolksseesilverliningstothisslowdown.Potentialhomebuyerswouldcheerforlowerinterestrates.Employerswouldn’’tmindalittlefewerbubblesinthejobmarket.Manyconsumersseemtohavebeeninfluencedbystock-marketswingswhichinvestorsnowviewasanecessaryingredienttoasustainedboom.Dinersmightseeanupsidetoo.GettingatableatManhattan’’shotnewAlainDucasserestaurantusedtobeimpossible.Notanymore.ForthatGreenspan&Co.maystillbeworthtoasting. Towhichofthefollowingistheauthorlikelytoagree
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Thatexperiencesinfluencesubsequentbehaviourisevidenceofanobviousbutneverthelessremarkableactivitycalledremembering.Learningcouldnotoccurwithoutthefunctionpopularlynamedmemory.Constantpracticehassuchaneffectonmemoryastoleadtoskilfulperformanceonthepianotorecitationofapoemandeventoreadingandunderstandingthesewords.So-calledintelligentbehaviourdemandsmemoryrememberingbeingaprimaryrequirementforreasoning.Theabilitytosolveanyproblemoreventorecognizethataproblemexistsdependsonmemory.Typicallythedecisiontocrossastreetisbasedonrememberingmanyearlierexperiences. Practiceorreviewtendstobuildandmaintainmemoryforataskorforanylearnedmaterial.Overaperiodofnopracticewhathasbeenlearnedtendstobeforgotten;andtheadaptiveconsequencesmaynotseemobvious.Yetdramaticinstancesofsuddenforgettingcanbeseentobeadaptive.Inthissensetheabilitytoforgetcanbeinterpretedtohavesurvivedthroughaprocessofnaturalselectioninanimals.Indeedwhenone’’smemoryofanemotionallypainfulexperienceleadstoseriousanxietyforgettingmayproducerelief.Neverthelessanevolutionaryinterpretationmightmakeitdifficulttounderstandhowthecommonlygradualprocessofforgettingsurvivednaturalselection. Inthinkingabouttheevolutionofmemorytogetherwithallitspossibleaspectsitishelpfultoconsiderwhatwouldhappenifmemoriesfailedtofade.Forgettingclearlyaidsorientationintimesinceoldmemoriesweakenandthenewtendtostandoutprovidingcluesforinferringduration.Withoutforgettingadaptiveabilitywouldsuffer;forexamplelearnedbehaviourthatmighthavebeencorrectadecadeagomaynolongerbe.Casesarerecordedofpeoplewhobyordinarystandardsforgotsolittlethattheireverydayactivitieswerefullofconfusion.Thusforgettingseemstoservethesurvivaloftheindividualandthespecies. Anotherlineofthoughtassumesamemorystoragesystemoflimitedcapacitythatprovidesadaptiveflexibilityspecificallythroughforgetting.Inthisviewcontinualadjustmentsaremadebetweenlearningormemorystorageinputandforgettingoutput.Indeedthereisevidencethattherateatwhichindividualsforgetisdirectlyrelatedtohowmuchtheyhavelearned.Suchdataoffergrosssupportofcontemporarymodelsofmemorythatassumeaninput-outputbalance. Accordingtothepassageifapersonneverforgot________________.
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