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Text 1 After the terrorist attacks in America last September, terrorist risk became the pariah ...
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Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatlyimprovingtheproductivityoffarmers.Enginesand1electricity2theindustrialrevolutionsby3improvingtheproductivityofworkersinmanufacturingandtransportation.Ifthereistobeatrueinformationrevolutionthencomputerswillhaveto4thepatternwithinformationandinformationwork. Informationtechnologyhas5beguntoimproveproductivityandithasevenhurtitinsomecases;ittakeslongertowade6thoseendlessautomatedphoneansweringmenus7itdoestotalktoahumanoperator.8productivitywillrise9computersandcommunicationsareusedintheInforma-tionMarketplacetorelievepeopleofbrainwork10industrialmachineryrelievedusofphysicalwork. TheInformationMarketplacewillgive11totwogreatnewforcesthatwilldrive12inthetwenty-firstcentury.13mostpeopleandcompaniesbuynewcomputersbecausethehardwarehasfasterprocessorsormorestoragecapacityorbecauseitisfashionabletoownanewmodel14becausecompetitorshaveboughtthemand"wecan’taffordtofallbehind."Imaginethe15ofacompanybuyinganewdevicebecausethemotorturnsatahigher16orbecauseit’sinvoguetodosoorbecausethecompetitionjustboughtthatmodel17ofwhetherthemachinecanmoveanymoreearthinanhour! Let’sexplorehowtheInformationmarketplacemighthelpusinthe18questtogetmoreresultsforless19.Todothiswewillfirstexamineaseriesof"faults"--waysinwhichcomputertechnologyis20todaybecauseofeithertechnologicalorhumanweaknesses.Correctingthesefaultswillbethefirststeptowardincreasingourproductivity.MakingtheInformationMarketplaceeasiertousewillbethesecondstep. 3
Text1 Atsomepointduringtheireducationbiologystudentsaretoldaboutaconversationinapubthattookplaceover50yearsago.J.B.S.HaldaneaBritishgeneticistwasaskedwhetherhewouldlaydownhislifeforhiscountry.Afterdoingaquickcalculationonthebackofanapkinhesaidhewoulddosofortwobrothersoreightcousins.Inotherwordshewoulddietoprotecttheequivalentofhisgeneticcontributiontothenextgeneration. Thetheoryofkinselection--theideathatanimalscanpassontheirgenesbyhelpingtheircloserelatives--isbiology’sexplanationforseeminglyaltruisticacts.Anindividualcarryinggenesthatpromotealtruismmightbeexpectedtodieyoungerthanonewith"selfish"genesandthustohaveareducedcontributiontothenextgeneration’sgeneticpoolButifthesameindividualactsaltruisticallytoprotectitsrelativesgenesforaltruisticbehaviormightneverthelesspropagate. Actsofapparentaltruismtonon-relativescanalsobeexplainedawayinwhathasbecomeacottageindustrywithinbiology.Ananimalmightcarefortheoffspringofanotherthatitisunrelatedtobecauseithopestoobtainthesamebenefitsforitselflateronaphenomenonknownasreciprocalaltruism.Thehunterwhogenerouslyshareshisspoilswithothersmaybedoingsoinordertosignalhissuperiorstatustofemalesandultimatelyboosthisbreedingsuccess.Theseapparentlyselflessactsarethereforedisguisedactsofself-interest. Alloftheseexamplesfiteconomists’argumentsthatHomosapiensisalsoHomoeconomicus--maximizingsomethingthateconomistscallutilityandbiologistsfitness.Butthereisaresiduumofhumanactivitythatdefiessuchexplanations:peoplecontributetocharitiesforthehomelessreturnlostwalletsdovoluntaryworkandtipwaitersinrestaurantstowhichtheydonotplantoreturn.Botheconomicrationalismandnaturalselectionofferfewexplanationsforsuchrandomactsofkindness.Norcantheyeasilyexplaintheopposite:spitefulbehaviorwhensomeoneharmshisowninterestinordertodamagethatofanother.Butpeoplearenowtryingtofindanswers. Whenanewphenomenonisrecognizedbyscienceanamealwayshelps.InapaperinHumanNatureDr.Fehrandhiscolleaguesargueforabehavioralpropensitytheycall"strongreciprocity".Thisnameisintendedtodistinguishitfromreciprocalaltruism.AccordingtoDr.Fehrapersonisastrongreciprocatorifheiswillingtosacrificeresourcestobekindtothosewhoarebeingkindandtopunishthosewhoarebeingunkind.Significantlystrongreciprocatorswillbehavethiswayevenifdoingsoprovidesnoprospectofmaterialrewardsinthefuture. Thewritermentionedthecaseofthehunterwhoshareshisspoilswithotherstodemonstrate
InFranceasinmanyEuropeancountriesfriendsgenerallyarcofthesamesexandfriendshipisseenasbasicallyarelationshipbetweenmen.41. AndmanyFrenchpeopledoubtthepossibilityofafriendshipbetweenamanandawoman.Thereisalsothekindofrelationshipwithinagroup--menandwomenwhohaveworkedtogetherforalongtimewhomaybeveryclosesharinggreatloyaltyandwarmthoffeeling.Theymaycalloneanother--copains--awordthatinEnglishbecomes"friends"buthasmorethefeelingof"pals"or"buddies".InFrencheyesthisisnotfriendshipalthoughtwomembersofsuchagroupmaywellbefriends. FortheFrenchfriendshipisoneto-onerelationshipthatdemandsakeenawarenessoftheotherperson’sintellecttemperamentandparticularinterests.42. Yourpoliticalphilosophyassumesmoredepthappreciationofaplaybecomessharpertasteinfoodorwineisenhancedenjoymentofasportisintensified. AndFrenchfriendshipsaredividedintocategories.Amanmayplaychesswithafriendforthirtyyearswithoutknowinghispoliticalopinionorhemaytalkpoliticswithhimforalongtimewithoutknowingabouthispersonallife.Differentfriendsfilldifferentnichesineachperson’slife.43Thesedutiesalsoseriousandrequiredareprimarilyforrelatives.Menwhoarefriendsmaymeetinacafe.Intellectualfriendsmaymeetinlargegroupsforeveningsofconversation.Workingpeoplemaymeetatthelittlebistrowheretheydrinkandtalkfarfromthefamily.44. InthepastinFrancefriendshipsofthiskindseldomwereopentoanybutintellectualwomen.45.ThespecialrelationshipoffriendshipisbasedonwhattheFrenchvaluemostonthemindonhavingthesameoutlookonvividaawarenessofsomechosenareaoflife. [A]Thesefriendshipsarenotmadepartoffamilylife.Afriendisnotexpectedtospendeveningsbeingnicetochildrenorcourteoustoadeafgrandmother. [B]AFrenchmanexplains"IfIweretosaytoyouinFrance’Thisismygoodfriend’thatpersonwouldnotbeasclosetomeassomeoneaboutwhomIsaidonly’Thisismyfriend.’AnyoneaboutwhomIhavetosaymoreisreallyless." [C]Sincemostwomen’slivescenteredontheirhomestheirwarmestrelationswithotherwomenoftenwentbacktotheirgirlhood. [D]Marriagedoesnotaffectsuchfriendship;wivesdon’thavetobetakenintoaccount. [E]Frenchwomenlaughattheideathat"womencan’tbefriends"buttheyalsoadmitsometimesthatforwomen"itisadifferentthing". [F]BetweenFrenchfriendswhohavechoseneachotherforthesimilarityoftheirpointofviewlivelydisagreementandsharpnessofargumentarethebreathoflife. [G]Afriendissomeonewhodrawsoutyourownbestqualitieswithwhomyousparkleandbecomemoreofwhateverthefriendshipdrawsupon. 45
Text4 Everydaysome16mbarrelsofoilleavetheGulfthroughtheStraitofHormuz.Thatisenoughtofillasoftdrinkcanforeveryoneonearthortopowereverymotorvehicleontheplanetfor25miles40km.Gulfoilaccountsfor40%ofglobaltradeinthestickystuff.Moreimportantitmakesuptwo-thirdsofknowndeposits.Whereasatpresentproductionratestherestoftheworld’soilreserveswilllastforamere25yearstheGulf’swilllastfor100years.Inotherwordstheregion’sstrategicimportanceissettogrowandgrow. Oratleastsogoestheconventionalwisdomwhichisusuallyroundedoutwithscarytalkofunstablespendthriftregimesandaloomingfundamentalistmenace.Yetallthosenumberscomewithcaveats.AgreatdealofoilisconsumedbythecountriesthatproduceitratherthantradedsoinrealitytheGulfaccountsforlessthanaquarteroftheworld’sdailyconsumption.Asforreservesthefiguresareaschangeableasamirageinthedesert.ThemostcomprehensiveresearchavailableconductedbytheUSGeologicalSurveyreferstoan"expected"totalvolumeforglobalhydrocarbondepositsthatisaboutdoublecurrentknownreserves.UsingthatfigureandthrowinginnaturalgasalongwithoilitappearsthattheGulfcontainsamoremoderate30%orsooftheplanet’sfuturefossil-fuelsupplies.LeavingoutthetwoGulfstatesthatarenotcoveredinthissurvey--IranandIraqtheremainingsixbetweenthemholdsomethinglike20%ofworldhydrocarbonreservesnotmuchmorethanRussia. Allthesameitisstillaheftychunk;enoughyoumightthinktokeepthepeoplelivingatopthewellsincomfortfortheforeseeablefuture.Butyoumightbewrong.AtpresentthenationsoftheGulfCooperationCouncilhaveacombinednationalincomeroughlyequaltoSwitzerland’sbutapopulationwhichataround30mismorethanfourtimesasbig.Itisalsothefastest-growingonearthhavingincreasedatninetimestheSwissrateoverthepastquarter-century.Meanwhiletheregion’sshareofworldoiltradehasfallenashastheaveragepriceperbarrel. AsaresulttheincomeperpersongeneratedbyGCCoilexportshasbeendiminishingsincethe1970s.Truesurgingdemandfrom’AmericaandAsiahasrecentlyboostedtheGulf’sshareoftradebutthemedium-termoutlookforoilpriesremainsweak.Combinedwithcontinuedgrowthinoilconsumptionthisshouldcreatesustainedupwardpressureonprices.Andhighoilpriceswillspeedthesearchforalternatives.Whoknowsin20years’timefuelcellsandhydrogenpowermayhavestartedtobecomecommercialpropositions. Bymentioningthefiguresareaschangeableasamirageinthedeserttheauthoristalkingabout
Text2 CanthisbetherighttimetoinvestinluxurygoodsMiucciaPradawasobviouslybitinghernails.ThegranddaughterofthefounderoftheItalianfashiongrouphasjustopenedspectacularnewstoresinquicksuccessioninNewYorkandLondon.Withitsmagicmirrorssilverdisplaysandcomputer-controlledchangingroomsPrada’stwo-month-oldshopinManhattancostastaggering$40msitsjustamilefromGroundZeroandsellspracticallynothing. Theluxury-goodsbusinesshasbeenindespairinhastysuccessionagainstabackgroundofaweakeningglobaleconomyanenduringslumpinJapanesespendingandtheSeptember11thterroristattacks.TheJapanesewhousedtobuyathirdoftheworld’sluxurygoodscuttheirforeigntravelinhalfaftertheattacksandtightenedtheirLouisVuittonpurse-strings.AtthesametimewealthyAmericansstoppedflyingwhichhasadramaticeffectontheluxury-goodspurveyorsofLondonParisandRome. AthometooAmericans’attitudestoluxurychangedatleasttemporarily."Conspicuousabstention"replacedgreedyconsumerismamongthefast-growingyoungerbreedofnewlyrich.Thedeclineinjobsecuritythelowerbonusesinfinancialservicesandthestockmarketbustthatwipedoutmuchofthepaperwealthgeneratedinthelate1990sbredanewfrugality.Salesofexpensivejewelrywatchesandhandbags--theproductsthatmakethejuiciestprofitsforthebigluxury-goodsgroups--droppedsharply. Theimpacthasbeenmoststrikingamongthehandfuloflargequotedluxury-goodscompanies.France’sLouisVuittonMoetHennessyLVMHtheindustryleaderissuedfourprofitswarningsafterSeptember11thandendedupreportinga20%declineinoperatingprofitfor2001afterhavingrepeatedlypromiseditsinvestorsdouble-digitgrowth;andItaly’sGucciGroupthethirdlargestannouncedthisweekthatsecond-halfprofitsdroppedby33%.MeanwhileprivatelyheldPradahadtopostponeitsstockmarketflotationandwasforcedtosellarecentlyacquiredstakeinFendiaprestigiousItalianbagmakerinordertoreduceitsdebts. Luxuryisanunusualbusiness.Aluxurybrandcannotbeextendedindefinitely:ifitbecomestoocommonitisdevaluedasPierreCardinandRalphLaurenprovedbystickingtheirlabelsoneverythingfromT-shirtstopaint.Equallyabrandnamecanbeunderminedifitisnotadvertisedconsistentlyorifitisdisplayedandsoldpoorly.SagraMaceiradeRosenaluxury-goodsanalystatJ.P.Morganarguesthat"Luxurycompaniesareprimarilyretailers.Inretailingthemostimportantthingisexecutionandexecutionisallaboutmanagement.Youmayhavethebestdesignedproductbutifyoudon’tgetitintotherightkindofshopattherighttimeyouwillfail." Whatistheattitudeofconsumerstowardsluxurygoodsinthepresentsituation
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatlyimprovingtheproductivityoffarmers.Enginesand1electricity2theindustrialrevolutionsby3improvingtheproductivityofworkersinmanufacturingandtransportation.Ifthereistobeatrueinformationrevolutionthencomputerswillhaveto4thepatternwithinformationandinformationwork. Informationtechnologyhas5beguntoimproveproductivityandithasevenhurtitinsomecases;ittakeslongertowade6thoseendlessautomatedphoneansweringmenus7itdoestotalktoahumanoperator.8productivitywillrise9computersandcommunicationsareusedintheInforma-tionMarketplacetorelievepeopleofbrainwork10industrialmachineryrelievedusofphysicalwork. TheInformationMarketplacewillgive11totwogreatnewforcesthatwilldrive12inthetwenty-firstcentury.13mostpeopleandcompaniesbuynewcomputersbecausethehardwarehasfasterprocessorsormorestoragecapacityorbecauseitisfashionabletoownanewmodel14becausecompetitorshaveboughtthemand"wecan’taffordtofallbehind."Imaginethe15ofacompanybuyinganewdevicebecausethemotorturnsatahigher16orbecauseit’sinvoguetodosoorbecausethecompetitionjustboughtthatmodel17ofwhetherthemachinecanmoveanymoreearthinanhour! Let’sexplorehowtheInformationmarketplacemighthelpusinthe18questtogetmoreresultsforless19.Todothiswewillfirstexamineaseriesof"faults"--waysinwhichcomputertechnologyis20todaybecauseofeithertechnologicalorhumanweaknesses.Correctingthesefaultswillbethefirststeptowardincreasingourproductivity.MakingtheInformationMarketplaceeasiertousewillbethesecondstep. 11
InFranceasinmanyEuropeancountriesfriendsgenerallyarcofthesamesexandfriendshipisseenasbasicallyarelationshipbetweenmen.41. AndmanyFrenchpeopledoubtthepossibilityofafriendshipbetweenamanandawoman.Thereisalsothekindofrelationshipwithinagroup--menandwomenwhohaveworkedtogetherforalongtimewhomaybeveryclosesharinggreatloyaltyandwarmthoffeeling.Theymaycalloneanother--copains--awordthatinEnglishbecomes"friends"buthasmorethefeelingof"pals"or"buddies".InFrencheyesthisisnotfriendshipalthoughtwomembersofsuchagroupmaywellbefriends. FortheFrenchfriendshipisoneto-onerelationshipthatdemandsakeenawarenessoftheotherperson’sintellecttemperamentandparticularinterests.42. Yourpoliticalphilosophyassumesmoredepthappreciationofaplaybecomessharpertasteinfoodorwineisenhancedenjoymentofasportisintensified. AndFrenchfriendshipsaredividedintocategories.Amanmayplaychesswithafriendforthirtyyearswithoutknowinghispoliticalopinionorhemaytalkpoliticswithhimforalongtimewithoutknowingabouthispersonallife.Differentfriendsfilldifferentnichesineachperson’slife.43Thesedutiesalsoseriousandrequiredareprimarilyforrelatives.Menwhoarefriendsmaymeetinacafe.Intellectualfriendsmaymeetinlargegroupsforeveningsofconversation.Workingpeoplemaymeetatthelittlebistrowheretheydrinkandtalkfarfromthefamily.44. InthepastinFrancefriendshipsofthiskindseldomwereopentoanybutintellectualwomen.45.ThespecialrelationshipoffriendshipisbasedonwhattheFrenchvaluemostonthemindonhavingthesameoutlookonvividaawarenessofsomechosenareaoflife. [A]Thesefriendshipsarenotmadepartoffamilylife.Afriendisnotexpectedtospendeveningsbeingnicetochildrenorcourteoustoadeafgrandmother. [B]AFrenchmanexplains"IfIweretosaytoyouinFrance’Thisismygoodfriend’thatpersonwouldnotbeasclosetomeassomeoneaboutwhomIsaidonly’Thisismyfriend.’AnyoneaboutwhomIhavetosaymoreisreallyless." [C]Sincemostwomen’slivescenteredontheirhomestheirwarmestrelationswithotherwomenoftenwentbacktotheirgirlhood. [D]Marriagedoesnotaffectsuchfriendship;wivesdon’thavetobetakenintoaccount. [E]Frenchwomenlaughattheideathat"womencan’tbefriends"buttheyalsoadmitsometimesthatforwomen"itisadifferentthing". [F]BetweenFrenchfriendswhohavechoseneachotherforthesimilarityoftheirpointofviewlivelydisagreementandsharpnessofargumentarethebreathoflife. [G]Afriendissomeonewhodrawsoutyourownbestqualitieswithwhomyousparkleandbecomemoreofwhateverthefriendshipdrawsupon. 41
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatlyimprovingtheproductivityoffarmers.Enginesand1electricity2theindustrialrevolutionsby3improvingtheproductivityofworkersinmanufacturingandtransportation.Ifthereistobeatrueinformationrevolutionthencomputerswillhaveto4thepatternwithinformationandinformationwork. Informationtechnologyhas5beguntoimproveproductivityandithasevenhurtitinsomecases;ittakeslongertowade6thoseendlessautomatedphoneansweringmenus7itdoestotalktoahumanoperator.8productivitywillrise9computersandcommunicationsareusedintheInforma-tionMarketplacetorelievepeopleofbrainwork10industrialmachineryrelievedusofphysicalwork. TheInformationMarketplacewillgive11totwogreatnewforcesthatwilldrive12inthetwenty-firstcentury.13mostpeopleandcompaniesbuynewcomputersbecausethehardwarehasfasterprocessorsormorestoragecapacityorbecauseitisfashionabletoownanewmodel14becausecompetitorshaveboughtthemand"wecan’taffordtofallbehind."Imaginethe15ofacompanybuyinganewdevicebecausethemotorturnsatahigher16orbecauseit’sinvoguetodosoorbecausethecompetitionjustboughtthatmodel17ofwhetherthemachinecanmoveanymoreearthinanhour! Let’sexplorehowtheInformationmarketplacemighthelpusinthe18questtogetmoreresultsforless19.Todothiswewillfirstexamineaseriesof"faults"--waysinwhichcomputertechnologyis20todaybecauseofeithertechnologicalorhumanweaknesses.Correctingthesefaultswillbethefirststeptowardincreasingourproductivity.MakingtheInformationMarketplaceeasiertousewillbethesecondstep. 5
Text1 TheEuropeanUnion’sBareelonasummitwhichendedonMarch16thwasplayedoutagainsttheusualbackdropofnoisy"anti-globalisation"demonstrationsandmassivesecurity.IfnothingelsethedemonstrationsillustratedthateconomicliberalizationinEurope-themeeting’smaintopic--presentsgenuinepoliticaldifficulties.Influentialsectionsofpublicopinioncontinuetoopposeanythingthattheyimaginethreatens"socialEurope"theidealofacradle-to-gravewelfarestate. InthisclimateofpublicopinionitisnotsurprisingthattheoutcomeinBarcelonawasmodest.ThetotemicissuewasopeningupEurope’senergymarkets.TheFrenchgovernmenthasfoughthardtopreserveaprotectedmarketathomeforitsstate-ownednationalchampionElectricitedeFranceEDF.AtBarcelonaitmadeawellflaggedtacticalretreat.Thesummiteersconcludedthatfrom2004industrialusersacrossEuropewouldbeabletochoosefromcompetingenergysupplierswhichshouldaccountfor"atleast"60%ofthemarket. SinceEurope’senergymarketisworth350billion$309billionayearandaffectsjustabouteverybusinessthisisabreakthrough.Buteventheenergydealhasdisappointingaspects.Confiningcompetitiontobusinessusersmakesithardertoshowthateconomicliberalizationisthefriendratherthanthefoeoftheordinaryperson.ItalsoallowsEDFtokeepitsmonopolyinthemostprofitablechunkoftheFrenchmarket. InotherareasespeciallytodowithEurope’stoughlabormarketstheEUisactuallygoingbackwards.Thesummiteersdeclaredthat"disincentivesagainsttakingupjobs"shouldberemoved;20mjobsshouldbecreatedwithintheEUby2010.ButonlythreedaysafteraBarcelonajamboreetheEuropeanCommissionendorsedanewlawthatwouldgivealltemporary-agencyworkersthesamerightsasfull-timerswithinsixweeksofgettingtheirfeetunderthedesk.sixoutof20commissionersdidunusuallyvoteagainstthemeasure--ablatantpieceofre-regulation--butthesocialaffairscommissionerAnnaDiamantopoulouwasunrepentantindeedtriumphant.Adissatisfiedliberaliserinthecommissioncalledthedirective"anabsolutedisaster". Thesummit’sotherachievementsarestillmorefragile.Europe’sleaderspromisedtoincreasespendingon"researchanddevelopment"fromitscurrentfigureof1.9%ofGDPayearto3%.ButhowwillEuropeanpoliticianscompelbusinessestoinvestmoreinresearchNobodyseemstoknow.AndtheonebigresearchprojectagreedonatBarcelonatheGalileosatellite-positioningsystemwhichissupposedtocost3.2billionofpublicmoneyisofdubiouscommercialvaluesincetheEuropeansalreadyenjoyfreeaccesstotheAmericans’GPAsystem.EdwardBannermanheadofeconomicsattheCentreforEuropeanReformaBlairitethink-tankcallsGalileo"thecommonagriculturalpolicyinspace". Whatistheattitudeoftheminorityofcommissionerstowardsthere-regulationofEurope'sjobmarket
Text4 Everydaysome16mbarrelsofoilleavetheGulfthroughtheStraitofHormuz.Thatisenoughtofillasoftdrinkcanforeveryoneonearthortopowereverymotorvehicleontheplanetfor25miles40km.Gulfoilaccountsfor40%ofglobaltradeinthestickystuff.Moreimportantitmakesuptwo-thirdsofknowndeposits.Whereasatpresentproductionratestherestoftheworld’soilreserveswilllastforamere25yearstheGulf’swilllastfor100years.Inotherwordstheregion’sstrategicimportanceissettogrowandgrow. Oratleastsogoestheconventionalwisdomwhichisusuallyroundedoutwithscarytalkofunstablespendthriftregimesandaloomingfundamentalistmenace.Yetallthosenumberscomewithcaveats.AgreatdealofoilisconsumedbythecountriesthatproduceitratherthantradedsoinrealitytheGulfaccountsforlessthanaquarteroftheworld’sdailyconsumption.Asforreservesthefiguresareaschangeableasamirageinthedesert.ThemostcomprehensiveresearchavailableconductedbytheUSGeologicalSurveyreferstoan"expected"totalvolumeforglobalhydrocarbondepositsthatisaboutdoublecurrentknownreserves.UsingthatfigureandthrowinginnaturalgasalongwithoilitappearsthattheGulfcontainsamoremoderate30%orsooftheplanet’sfuturefossil-fuelsupplies.LeavingoutthetwoGulfstatesthatarenotcoveredinthissurvey--IranandIraqtheremainingsixbetweenthemholdsomethinglike20%ofworldhydrocarbonreservesnotmuchmorethanRussia. Allthesameitisstillaheftychunk;enoughyoumightthinktokeepthepeoplelivingatopthewellsincomfortfortheforeseeablefuture.Butyoumightbewrong.AtpresentthenationsoftheGulfCooperationCouncilhaveacombinednationalincomeroughlyequaltoSwitzerland’sbutapopulationwhichataround30mismorethanfourtimesasbig.Itisalsothefastest-growingonearthhavingincreasedatninetimestheSwissrateoverthepastquarter-century.Meanwhiletheregion’sshareofworldoiltradehasfallenashastheaveragepriceperbarrel. AsaresulttheincomeperpersongeneratedbyGCCoilexportshasbeendiminishingsincethe1970s.Truesurgingdemandfrom’AmericaandAsiahasrecentlyboostedtheGulf’sshareoftradebutthemedium-termoutlookforoilpriesremainsweak.Combinedwithcontinuedgrowthinoilconsumptionthisshouldcreatesustainedupwardpressureonprices.Andhighoilpriceswillspeedthesearchforalternatives.Whoknowsin20years’timefuelcellsandhydrogenpowermayhavestartedtobecomecommercialpropositions. IntheeyesoftheauthorconventionalopiniononthestrategicimportanceoftheGulfoilis
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatlyimprovingtheproductivityoffarmers.Enginesand1electricity2theindustrialrevolutionsby3improvingtheproductivityofworkersinmanufacturingandtransportation.Ifthereistobeatrueinformationrevolutionthencomputerswillhaveto4thepatternwithinformationandinformationwork. Informationtechnologyhas5beguntoimproveproductivityandithasevenhurtitinsomecases;ittakeslongertowade6thoseendlessautomatedphoneansweringmenus7itdoestotalktoahumanoperator.8productivitywillrise9computersandcommunicationsareusedintheInforma-tionMarketplacetorelievepeopleofbrainwork10industrialmachineryrelievedusofphysicalwork. TheInformationMarketplacewillgive11totwogreatnewforcesthatwilldrive12inthetwenty-firstcentury.13mostpeopleandcompaniesbuynewcomputersbecausethehardwarehasfasterprocessorsormorestoragecapacityorbecauseitisfashionabletoownanewmodel14becausecompetitorshaveboughtthemand"wecan’taffordtofallbehind."Imaginethe15ofacompanybuyinganewdevicebecausethemotorturnsatahigher16orbecauseit’sinvoguetodosoorbecausethecompetitionjustboughtthatmodel17ofwhetherthemachinecanmoveanymoreearthinanhour! Let’sexplorehowtheInformationmarketplacemighthelpusinthe18questtogetmoreresultsforless19.Todothiswewillfirstexamineaseriesof"faults"--waysinwhichcomputertechnologyis20todaybecauseofeithertechnologicalorhumanweaknesses.Correctingthesefaultswillbethefirststeptowardincreasingourproductivity.MakingtheInformationMarketplaceeasiertousewillbethesecondstep. 7
Text3 OnaweekdaynightthisJanuarythousandsofflag-wavingyouthspackedOlayaStreetRiyadh’smainshoppingstriptocheeramemorableSaudivictoryintheGCCCupfootballfinal.Onecarrockmusicblaringfromitsstereosquealedtoastopblockinganintersection.Thepassengersleaptoutclamberedontotheroofanddancedwildlyinfrontofthehonkingcrowd.Havingparalyzedthetrafficacrosshalfthecitytheyspedoffbeforethepolicecouldcatchthem. SuchpublicoccasionwasonceunthinkableintherigidconformistkingdombutnowyoungpeoplethereandinotherGulfstatesareincreasinglywillingtochallengeauthority.Thatdoesnotmakethemrebels:respectforeldersforreligiousdutyandformaintainingfamilybondsremainpreeminentvaluesandpremaritalsexisgenerallyoutofthequestion.Yetdemographyisbeginningtoputpressureonultra-conservativenorms. Afterall60%oftheGulf’snativepopulationisundertheageof25.Withmanymoreofitscitizensinschoolthanintheworkforcetheregionfacesatleastagenerationofrocketingdemandforemployment.IneverysingleGCCcountrythenativeworkforcewilldoubleby2020.InSaudiArabiaitwillgrowfrom3.3mnowtooverSm.Thetaskofmanagingthissurgewouldbedauntingenoughforanysocietybutisparticularlyforbiddinginthisregionforseveralreasons. ThefirstisthattheGulfsuffersfromalopsidedlaborstructure.Thisgoesbacktothe1970swhenballooningoilincomesallowedgovernmentstoimportmillionsofforeignworkersandtodispensecozyjobstothelocals.Theresultisatwo-tierworkforcewithoutsidersworkingmostlyintheprivatesectorandnativesmonopolizingthestatebureaucracy.Privatefirmsareasproductiveasany.Butwithinthegovernmentclaimsonestudyworkersareworthonlyaquarterofwhattheygetpaid. Similarlyintheeducationsector30yearsspentkeepingpacewithsoaringstudentnumbershastakenaheavytollonstandards.TheSaudischoolsystemforinstancetodayhastocopewith5mstudentseighttimesmorethanin1970.AndmanyGulfcountriesadaptedtheircurriculafromEgyptianmodelsthatarenowthoroughlydiscredited.Theycontinuetofavorrotelearningof"facts"intendedtoinstillpatriotismorreligiousvalues. Evenworsethesystemasawholediscouragesintellectualcuriosity.Itchannelsstudentsintoacquiringprestigedegreesratherthangainingmarketableskills.Ofthe120000graduatesthatSaudiuniversitiesproducedbetween1995and1999only10000hadstudiedtechnicalsubjectssuchasarchitectureorengineering.Theyaccountedforonly2%ofthetotalnumberofSaudisenteringthejobmarket. AccordingtotheauthortheSaudieducationsystemischaracterizedbyitsexcessiveemphasison
Venturecapitalhasnowbecomeaglobalphenomenon.Hereisthe1statusofeachmajorregionthathasventurecapitalactivity.2thedefinitionofventurecapital3coined50yearsagoatHarvardBusinessSchoolmeant4capitalforneworveryyoungventures.Overtime5andespeciallyoutsidetheUSandCanadaithasbecomeacoverallnameforanytypeofequityrelatedfinancingforprivatelyheldcompanies.Tomakemattersevenmore6someUSventurecapitalfirmshavebegundelvinginto"transactional"financemore7totheinvestmentbankingcommunity.Thisishoweveralimitedphenomenon. Indeedtheinfluxof8fundmoneyintotheventurecapitalmarkethasbeenbothacurseandablessing.Firmsfoundthemselvesbattlingtoplacetheirnewly9fundswitha10numberofspecializedhitechfirms.Theresultwasaseriesoflossesintheearly1990s. Venturecapitaliststhenbecameimmersedintransactionalfinancingasaresultoftheir11inbusinessacquisitions.Historicallytheventurecapitalistshadsatattheendofthetablerepresentingthecompanybeing12.Atsomepointtheybegantoseeopportunitiesinfinancingsuch13andinotherinvestmentbankingtypeactivities. Inthelong14howeverventurecapitalistswillbackoutofinvestmentbankingtypeactivitiesandfocusonwhattheyarebestatriskingcapitalinvestmentsin15companies.Whatisrequiredtoplacetheircapitalandstillrealizetheir16isarampupinstaff.Inthe1980smanyofthefirmswerequitesmalland17onspecificareasoftechnologywheretheyhadin18knowledge.Inthe1990sthesuccessfulfirmshave19managementstaff20intomorethanoneareaoftechnologyandoutsourcedmoreoftheirtechnologicalanalysistoveryspecializedexperts. 19
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatlyimprovingtheproductivityoffarmers.Enginesand1electricity2theindustrialrevolutionsby3improvingtheproductivityofworkersinmanufacturingandtransportation.Ifthereistobeatrueinformationrevolutionthencomputerswillhaveto4thepatternwithinformationandinformationwork. Informationtechnologyhas5beguntoimproveproductivityandithasevenhurtitinsomecases;ittakeslongertowade6thoseendlessautomatedphoneansweringmenus7itdoestotalktoahumanoperator.8productivitywillrise9computersandcommunicationsareusedintheInforma-tionMarketplacetorelievepeopleofbrainwork10industrialmachineryrelievedusofphysicalwork. TheInformationMarketplacewillgive11totwogreatnewforcesthatwilldrive12inthetwenty-firstcentury.13mostpeopleandcompaniesbuynewcomputersbecausethehardwarehasfasterprocessorsormorestoragecapacityorbecauseitisfashionabletoownanewmodel14becausecompetitorshaveboughtthemand"wecan’taffordtofallbehind."Imaginethe15ofacompanybuyinganewdevicebecausethemotorturnsatahigher16orbecauseit’sinvoguetodosoorbecausethecompetitionjustboughtthatmodel17ofwhetherthemachinecanmoveanymoreearthinanhour! Let’sexplorehowtheInformationmarketplacemighthelpusinthe18questtogetmoreresultsforless19.Todothiswewillfirstexamineaseriesof"faults"--waysinwhichcomputertechnologyis20todaybecauseofeithertechnologicalorhumanweaknesses.Correctingthesefaultswillbethefirststeptowardincreasingourproductivity.MakingtheInformationMarketplaceeasiertousewillbethesecondstep. 9
Text1 Atsomepointduringtheireducationbiologystudentsaretoldaboutaconversationinapubthattookplaceover50yearsago.J.B.S.HaldaneaBritishgeneticistwasaskedwhetherhewouldlaydownhislifeforhiscountry.Afterdoingaquickcalculationonthebackofanapkinhesaidhewoulddosofortwobrothersoreightcousins.Inotherwordshewoulddietoprotecttheequivalentofhisgeneticcontributiontothenextgeneration. Thetheoryofkinselection--theideathatanimalscanpassontheirgenesbyhelpingtheircloserelatives--isbiology’sexplanationforseeminglyaltruisticacts.Anindividualcarryinggenesthatpromotealtruismmightbeexpectedtodieyoungerthanonewith"selfish"genesandthustohaveareducedcontributiontothenextgeneration’sgeneticpoolButifthesameindividualactsaltruisticallytoprotectitsrelativesgenesforaltruisticbehaviormightneverthelesspropagate. Actsofapparentaltruismtonon-relativescanalsobeexplainedawayinwhathasbecomeacottageindustrywithinbiology.Ananimalmightcarefortheoffspringofanotherthatitisunrelatedtobecauseithopestoobtainthesamebenefitsforitselflateronaphenomenonknownasreciprocalaltruism.Thehunterwhogenerouslyshareshisspoilswithothersmaybedoingsoinordertosignalhissuperiorstatustofemalesandultimatelyboosthisbreedingsuccess.Theseapparentlyselflessactsarethereforedisguisedactsofself-interest. Alloftheseexamplesfiteconomists’argumentsthatHomosapiensisalsoHomoeconomicus--maximizingsomethingthateconomistscallutilityandbiologistsfitness.Butthereisaresiduumofhumanactivitythatdefiessuchexplanations:peoplecontributetocharitiesforthehomelessreturnlostwalletsdovoluntaryworkandtipwaitersinrestaurantstowhichtheydonotplantoreturn.Botheconomicrationalismandnaturalselectionofferfewexplanationsforsuchrandomactsofkindness.Norcantheyeasilyexplaintheopposite:spitefulbehaviorwhensomeoneharmshisowninterestinordertodamagethatofanother.Butpeoplearenowtryingtofindanswers. Whenanewphenomenonisrecognizedbyscienceanamealwayshelps.InapaperinHumanNatureDr.Fehrandhiscolleaguesargueforabehavioralpropensitytheycall"strongreciprocity".Thisnameisintendedtodistinguishitfromreciprocalaltruism.AccordingtoDr.Fehrapersonisastrongreciprocatorifheiswillingtosacrificeresourcestobekindtothosewhoarebeingkindandtopunishthosewhoarebeingunkind.Significantlystrongreciprocatorswillbehavethiswayevenifdoingsoprovidesnoprospectofmaterialrewardsinthefuture. ItcanbeinferredfromParagraph4that
InFranceasinmanyEuropeancountriesfriendsgenerallyarcofthesamesexandfriendshipisseenasbasicallyarelationshipbetweenmen.41. AndmanyFrenchpeopledoubtthepossibilityofafriendshipbetweenamanandawoman.Thereisalsothekindofrelationshipwithinagroup--menandwomenwhohaveworkedtogetherforalongtimewhomaybeveryclosesharinggreatloyaltyandwarmthoffeeling.Theymaycalloneanother--copains--awordthatinEnglishbecomes"friends"buthasmorethefeelingof"pals"or"buddies".InFrencheyesthisisnotfriendshipalthoughtwomembersofsuchagroupmaywellbefriends. FortheFrenchfriendshipisoneto-onerelationshipthatdemandsakeenawarenessoftheotherperson’sintellecttemperamentandparticularinterests.42. Yourpoliticalphilosophyassumesmoredepthappreciationofaplaybecomessharpertasteinfoodorwineisenhancedenjoymentofasportisintensified. AndFrenchfriendshipsaredividedintocategories.Amanmayplaychesswithafriendforthirtyyearswithoutknowinghispoliticalopinionorhemaytalkpoliticswithhimforalongtimewithoutknowingabouthispersonallife.Differentfriendsfilldifferentnichesineachperson’slife.43Thesedutiesalsoseriousandrequiredareprimarilyforrelatives.Menwhoarefriendsmaymeetinacafe.Intellectualfriendsmaymeetinlargegroupsforeveningsofconversation.Workingpeoplemaymeetatthelittlebistrowheretheydrinkandtalkfarfromthefamily.44. InthepastinFrancefriendshipsofthiskindseldomwereopentoanybutintellectualwomen.45.ThespecialrelationshipoffriendshipisbasedonwhattheFrenchvaluemostonthemindonhavingthesameoutlookonvividaawarenessofsomechosenareaoflife. [A]Thesefriendshipsarenotmadepartoffamilylife.Afriendisnotexpectedtospendeveningsbeingnicetochildrenorcourteoustoadeafgrandmother. [B]AFrenchmanexplains"IfIweretosaytoyouinFrance’Thisismygoodfriend’thatpersonwouldnotbeasclosetomeassomeoneaboutwhomIsaidonly’Thisismyfriend.’AnyoneaboutwhomIhavetosaymoreisreallyless." [C]Sincemostwomen’slivescenteredontheirhomestheirwarmestrelationswithotherwomenoftenwentbacktotheirgirlhood. [D]Marriagedoesnotaffectsuchfriendship;wivesdon’thavetobetakenintoaccount. [E]Frenchwomenlaughattheideathat"womencan’tbefriends"buttheyalsoadmitsometimesthatforwomen"itisadifferentthing". [F]BetweenFrenchfriendswhohavechoseneachotherforthesimilarityoftheirpointofviewlivelydisagreementandsharpnessofargumentarethebreathoflife. [G]Afriendissomeonewhodrawsoutyourownbestqualitieswithwhomyousparkleandbecomemoreofwhateverthefriendshipdrawsupon. 43
Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter.UseLiMinginstead.Donotwritetheaddress.
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatlyimprovingtheproductivityoffarmers.Enginesand1electricity2theindustrialrevolutionsby3improvingtheproductivityofworkersinmanufacturingandtransportation.Ifthereistobeatrueinformationrevolutionthencomputerswillhaveto4thepatternwithinformationandinformationwork. Informationtechnologyhas5beguntoimproveproductivityandithasevenhurtitinsomecases;ittakeslongertowade6thoseendlessautomatedphoneansweringmenus7itdoestotalktoahumanoperator.8productivitywillrise9computersandcommunicationsareusedintheInforma-tionMarketplacetorelievepeopleofbrainwork10industrialmachineryrelievedusofphysicalwork. TheInformationMarketplacewillgive11totwogreatnewforcesthatwilldrive12inthetwenty-firstcentury.13mostpeopleandcompaniesbuynewcomputersbecausethehardwarehasfasterprocessorsormorestoragecapacityorbecauseitisfashionabletoownanewmodel14becausecompetitorshaveboughtthemand"wecan’taffordtofallbehind."Imaginethe15ofacompanybuyinganewdevicebecausethemotorturnsatahigher16orbecauseit’sinvoguetodosoorbecausethecompetitionjustboughtthatmodel17ofwhetherthemachinecanmoveanymoreearthinanhour! Let’sexplorehowtheInformationmarketplacemighthelpusinthe18questtogetmoreresultsforless19.Todothiswewillfirstexamineaseriesof"faults"--waysinwhichcomputertechnologyis20todaybecauseofeithertechnologicalorhumanweaknesses.Correctingthesefaultswillbethefirststeptowardincreasingourproductivity.MakingtheInformationMarketplaceeasiertousewillbethesecondstep. 19
Everymanisrichorpooraccordingtothedegreeinwhichhecanaffordtoenjoythenecessariesconveniencesandamusementsofhumanlife.46Butafterthedivisionoflaborhasoncethoroughlytakenplaceitisbutaverysmallpartofthesewithwhichaman’sownlaborcansupplyhimthefargreaterpartofthembemustderivefromthelaborofotherpeopleandhemustberichorpooraccordingtothequantityofthatlaborwhichhecancommandorwhichhecanaffordtopurchase.47Thevalueofanycommoditythereforetothepersonwhopossessesitisequaltothequantityoflaborwhichitenableshimtopurchaseorcommand.Laborthereforeistherealmeasureoftheexchangeablevalueofallcommodities. Therealpriceofeverythingwhateverythingreallycoststothemanwhowantstoacquireitisthetoilandtroubleofacquiringit.48Whateverythingisreallyworthtothemanwhohasacquireditandwhowantstodisposeofitorexchangeitforsomethingelseisthetoilandtroublewhichitcansavetohimselfandwhichitcanimposeuponotherpeople.Whatisboughtwithmoneyorwithgoodsispurchasedbylaborasmuchaswhatweacquirebythetoilofourownbody.Thatmoneyorthosegoodsindeedsaveusthistoil.49Theycontainthevalueofacertainquantityoflaborwhichweexchangeforwhatissupposedatthetimetocontainthevalueofanequalquantity.Laborwasthefirstpricetheoriginalpurchase-moneythataspaidforallthings.Itwasnotbygoldorbysilverbutbylaborthatallthewealthoftheworldwasoriginallypurchased;and50itsvaluetothosewhopossessitandwhowanttoexchangeitforsomenewproductionsispreciselytothequantityoflaborwhichitcanenablethemtopurchaseorcommand. WealthasMr.Hobbessaysispower.Butthepersonwhoeitheracquiresorsucceedstoagreatfortunedoesnotnecessarilyacquireorsucceedtoanypoliticalpowereithercivilormilitary.Hisfortunemayperhapsaffordhimthemeansofacquiringbothbutthemerepossessionofthatfortunedoesnotnecessarilyconveytohimeither. 47
Text3 OnaweekdaynightthisJanuarythousandsofflag-wavingyouthspackedOlayaStreetRiyadh’smainshoppingstriptocheeramemorableSaudivictoryintheGCCCupfootballfinal.Onecarrockmusicblaringfromitsstereosquealedtoastopblockinganintersection.Thepassengersleaptoutclamberedontotheroofanddancedwildlyinfrontofthehonkingcrowd.Havingparalyzedthetrafficacrosshalfthecitytheyspedoffbeforethepolicecouldcatchthem. SuchpublicoccasionwasonceunthinkableintherigidconformistkingdombutnowyoungpeoplethereandinotherGulfstatesareincreasinglywillingtochallengeauthority.Thatdoesnotmakethemrebels:respectforeldersforreligiousdutyandformaintainingfamilybondsremainpreeminentvaluesandpremaritalsexisgenerallyoutofthequestion.Yetdemographyisbeginningtoputpressureonultra-conservativenorms. Afterall60%oftheGulf’snativepopulationisundertheageof25.Withmanymoreofitscitizensinschoolthanintheworkforcetheregionfacesatleastagenerationofrocketingdemandforemployment.IneverysingleGCCcountrythenativeworkforcewilldoubleby2020.InSaudiArabiaitwillgrowfrom3.3mnowtooverSm.Thetaskofmanagingthissurgewouldbedauntingenoughforanysocietybutisparticularlyforbiddinginthisregionforseveralreasons. ThefirstisthattheGulfsuffersfromalopsidedlaborstructure.Thisgoesbacktothe1970swhenballooningoilincomesallowedgovernmentstoimportmillionsofforeignworkersandtodispensecozyjobstothelocals.Theresultisatwo-tierworkforcewithoutsidersworkingmostlyintheprivatesectorandnativesmonopolizingthestatebureaucracy.Privatefirmsareasproductiveasany.Butwithinthegovernmentclaimsonestudyworkersareworthonlyaquarterofwhattheygetpaid. Similarlyintheeducationsector30yearsspentkeepingpacewithsoaringstudentnumbershastakenaheavytollonstandards.TheSaudischoolsystemforinstancetodayhastocopewith5mstudentseighttimesmorethanin1970.AndmanyGulfcountriesadaptedtheircurriculafromEgyptianmodelsthatarenowthoroughlydiscredited.Theycontinuetofavorrotelearningof"facts"intendedtoinstillpatriotismorreligiousvalues. Evenworsethesystemasawholediscouragesintellectualcuriosity.Itchannelsstudentsintoacquiringprestigedegreesratherthangainingmarketableskills.Ofthe120000graduatesthatSaudiuniversitiesproducedbetween1995and1999only10000hadstudiedtechnicalsubjectssuchasarchitectureorengineering.Theyaccountedforonly2%ofthetotalnumberofSaudisenteringthejobmarket. Whatwouldthesectionfollowingthistextprobablydealwith
Text2 CanthisbetherighttimetoinvestinluxurygoodsMiucciaPradawasobviouslybitinghernails.ThegranddaughterofthefounderoftheItalianfashiongrouphasjustopenedspectacularnewstoresinquicksuccessioninNewYorkandLondon.Withitsmagicmirrorssilverdisplaysandcomputer-controlledchangingroomsPrada’stwo-month-oldshopinManhattancostastaggering$40msitsjustamilefromGroundZeroandsellspracticallynothing. Theluxury-goodsbusinesshasbeenindespairinhastysuccessionagainstabackgroundofaweakeningglobaleconomyanenduringslumpinJapanesespendingandtheSeptember11thterroristattacks.TheJapanesewhousedtobuyathirdoftheworld’sluxurygoodscuttheirforeigntravelinhalfaftertheattacksandtightenedtheirLouisVuittonpurse-strings.AtthesametimewealthyAmericansstoppedflyingwhichhasadramaticeffectontheluxury-goodspurveyorsofLondonParisandRome. AthometooAmericans’attitudestoluxurychangedatleasttemporarily."Conspicuousabstention"replacedgreedyconsumerismamongthefast-growingyoungerbreedofnewlyrich.Thedeclineinjobsecuritythelowerbonusesinfinancialservicesandthestockmarketbustthatwipedoutmuchofthepaperwealthgeneratedinthelate1990sbredanewfrugality.Salesofexpensivejewelrywatchesandhandbags--theproductsthatmakethejuiciestprofitsforthebigluxury-goodsgroups--droppedsharply. Theimpacthasbeenmoststrikingamongthehandfuloflargequotedluxury-goodscompanies.France’sLouisVuittonMoetHennessyLVMHtheindustryleaderissuedfourprofitswarningsafterSeptember11thandendedupreportinga20%declineinoperatingprofitfor2001afterhavingrepeatedlypromiseditsinvestorsdouble-digitgrowth;andItaly’sGucciGroupthethirdlargestannouncedthisweekthatsecond-halfprofitsdroppedby33%.MeanwhileprivatelyheldPradahadtopostponeitsstockmarketflotationandwasforcedtosellarecentlyacquiredstakeinFendiaprestigiousItalianbagmakerinordertoreduceitsdebts. Luxuryisanunusualbusiness.Aluxurybrandcannotbeextendedindefinitely:ifitbecomestoocommonitisdevaluedasPierreCardinandRalphLaurenprovedbystickingtheirlabelsoneverythingfromT-shirtstopaint.Equallyabrandnamecanbeunderminedifitisnotadvertisedconsistentlyorifitisdisplayedandsoldpoorly.SagraMaceiradeRosenaluxury-goodsanalystatJ.P.Morganarguesthat"Luxurycompaniesareprimarilyretailers.Inretailingthemostimportantthingisexecutionandexecutionisallaboutmanagement.Youmayhavethebestdesignedproductbutifyoudon’tgetitintotherightkindofshopattherighttimeyouwillfail." Whenmentioningdouble-digitgrowthParagraph4theauthoristalkingabout
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatlyimprovingtheproductivityoffarmers.Enginesand1electricity2theindustrialrevolutionsby3improvingtheproductivityofworkersinmanufacturingandtransportation.Ifthereistobeatrueinformationrevolutionthencomputerswillhaveto4thepatternwithinformationandinformationwork. Informationtechnologyhas5beguntoimproveproductivityandithasevenhurtitinsomecases;ittakeslongertowade6thoseendlessautomatedphoneansweringmenus7itdoestotalktoahumanoperator.8productivitywillrise9computersandcommunicationsareusedintheInforma-tionMarketplacetorelievepeopleofbrainwork10industrialmachineryrelievedusofphysicalwork. TheInformationMarketplacewillgive11totwogreatnewforcesthatwilldrive12inthetwenty-firstcentury.13mostpeopleandcompaniesbuynewcomputersbecausethehardwarehasfasterprocessorsormorestoragecapacityorbecauseitisfashionabletoownanewmodel14becausecompetitorshaveboughtthemand"wecan’taffordtofallbehind."Imaginethe15ofacompanybuyinganewdevicebecausethemotorturnsatahigher16orbecauseit’sinvoguetodosoorbecausethecompetitionjustboughtthatmodel17ofwhetherthemachinecanmoveanymoreearthinanhour! Let’sexplorehowtheInformationmarketplacemighthelpusinthe18questtogetmoreresultsforless19.Todothiswewillfirstexamineaseriesof"faults"--waysinwhichcomputertechnologyis20todaybecauseofeithertechnologicalorhumanweaknesses.Correctingthesefaultswillbethefirststeptowardincreasingourproductivity.MakingtheInformationMarketplaceeasiertousewillbethesecondstep. 1
Text1 TheEuropeanUnion’sBareelonasummitwhichendedonMarch16thwasplayedoutagainsttheusualbackdropofnoisy"anti-globalisation"demonstrationsandmassivesecurity.IfnothingelsethedemonstrationsillustratedthateconomicliberalizationinEurope-themeeting’smaintopic--presentsgenuinepoliticaldifficulties.Influentialsectionsofpublicopinioncontinuetoopposeanythingthattheyimaginethreatens"socialEurope"theidealofacradle-to-gravewelfarestate. InthisclimateofpublicopinionitisnotsurprisingthattheoutcomeinBarcelonawasmodest.ThetotemicissuewasopeningupEurope’senergymarkets.TheFrenchgovernmenthasfoughthardtopreserveaprotectedmarketathomeforitsstate-ownednationalchampionElectricitedeFranceEDF.AtBarcelonaitmadeawellflaggedtacticalretreat.Thesummiteersconcludedthatfrom2004industrialusersacrossEuropewouldbeabletochoosefromcompetingenergysupplierswhichshouldaccountfor"atleast"60%ofthemarket. SinceEurope’senergymarketisworth350billion$309billionayearandaffectsjustabouteverybusinessthisisabreakthrough.Buteventheenergydealhasdisappointingaspects.Confiningcompetitiontobusinessusersmakesithardertoshowthateconomicliberalizationisthefriendratherthanthefoeoftheordinaryperson.ItalsoallowsEDFtokeepitsmonopolyinthemostprofitablechunkoftheFrenchmarket. InotherareasespeciallytodowithEurope’stoughlabormarketstheEUisactuallygoingbackwards.Thesummiteersdeclaredthat"disincentivesagainsttakingupjobs"shouldberemoved;20mjobsshouldbecreatedwithintheEUby2010.ButonlythreedaysafteraBarcelonajamboreetheEuropeanCommissionendorsedanewlawthatwouldgivealltemporary-agencyworkersthesamerightsasfull-timerswithinsixweeksofgettingtheirfeetunderthedesk.sixoutof20commissionersdidunusuallyvoteagainstthemeasure--ablatantpieceofre-regulation--butthesocialaffairscommissionerAnnaDiamantopoulouwasunrepentantindeedtriumphant.Adissatisfiedliberaliserinthecommissioncalledthedirective"anabsolutedisaster". Thesummit’sotherachievementsarestillmorefragile.Europe’sleaderspromisedtoincreasespendingon"researchanddevelopment"fromitscurrentfigureof1.9%ofGDPayearto3%.ButhowwillEuropeanpoliticianscompelbusinessestoinvestmoreinresearchNobodyseemstoknow.AndtheonebigresearchprojectagreedonatBarcelonatheGalileosatellite-positioningsystemwhichissupposedtocost3.2billionofpublicmoneyisofdubiouscommercialvaluesincetheEuropeansalreadyenjoyfreeaccesstotheAmericans’GPAsystem.EdwardBannermanheadofeconomicsattheCentreforEuropeanReformaBlairitethink-tankcallsGalileo"thecommonagriculturalpolicyinspace". AccordingtothosewhosupporttheliberalizationofEurope'senergymarketsenergysupplymonopolyisunlikelyonthegroundsthat
Text3 OnaweekdaynightthisJanuarythousandsofflag-wavingyouthspackedOlayaStreetRiyadh’smainshoppingstriptocheeramemorableSaudivictoryintheGCCCupfootballfinal.Onecarrockmusicblaringfromitsstereosquealedtoastopblockinganintersection.Thepassengersleaptoutclamberedontotheroofanddancedwildlyinfrontofthehonkingcrowd.Havingparalyzedthetrafficacrosshalfthecitytheyspedoffbeforethepolicecouldcatchthem. SuchpublicoccasionwasonceunthinkableintherigidconformistkingdombutnowyoungpeoplethereandinotherGulfstatesareincreasinglywillingtochallengeauthority.Thatdoesnotmakethemrebels:respectforeldersforreligiousdutyandformaintainingfamilybondsremainpreeminentvaluesandpremaritalsexisgenerallyoutofthequestion.Yetdemographyisbeginningtoputpressureonultra-conservativenorms. Afterall60%oftheGulf’snativepopulationisundertheageof25.Withmanymoreofitscitizensinschoolthanintheworkforcetheregionfacesatleastagenerationofrocketingdemandforemployment.IneverysingleGCCcountrythenativeworkforcewilldoubleby2020.InSaudiArabiaitwillgrowfrom3.3mnowtooverSm.Thetaskofmanagingthissurgewouldbedauntingenoughforanysocietybutisparticularlyforbiddinginthisregionforseveralreasons. ThefirstisthattheGulfsuffersfromalopsidedlaborstructure.Thisgoesbacktothe1970swhenballooningoilincomesallowedgovernmentstoimportmillionsofforeignworkersandtodispensecozyjobstothelocals.Theresultisatwo-tierworkforcewithoutsidersworkingmostlyintheprivatesectorandnativesmonopolizingthestatebureaucracy.Privatefirmsareasproductiveasany.Butwithinthegovernmentclaimsonestudyworkersareworthonlyaquarterofwhattheygetpaid. Similarlyintheeducationsector30yearsspentkeepingpacewithsoaringstudentnumbershastakenaheavytollonstandards.TheSaudischoolsystemforinstancetodayhastocopewith5mstudentseighttimesmorethanin1970.AndmanyGulfcountriesadaptedtheircurriculafromEgyptianmodelsthatarenowthoroughlydiscredited.Theycontinuetofavorrotelearningof"facts"intendedtoinstillpatriotismorreligiousvalues. Evenworsethesystemasawholediscouragesintellectualcuriosity.Itchannelsstudentsintoacquiringprestigedegreesratherthangainingmarketableskills.Ofthe120000graduatesthatSaudiuniversitiesproducedbetween1995and1999only10000hadstudiedtechnicalsubjectssuchasarchitectureorengineering.Theyaccountedforonly2%ofthetotalnumberofSaudisenteringthejobmarket. ThewordlopsidedParagraph4mostprobablymeans
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatlyimprovingtheproductivityoffarmers.Enginesand1electricity2theindustrialrevolutionsby3improvingtheproductivityofworkersinmanufacturingandtransportation.Ifthereistobeatrueinformationrevolutionthencomputerswillhaveto4thepatternwithinformationandinformationwork. Informationtechnologyhas5beguntoimproveproductivityandithasevenhurtitinsomecases;ittakeslongertowade6thoseendlessautomatedphoneansweringmenus7itdoestotalktoahumanoperator.8productivitywillrise9computersandcommunicationsareusedintheInforma-tionMarketplacetorelievepeopleofbrainwork10industrialmachineryrelievedusofphysicalwork. TheInformationMarketplacewillgive11totwogreatnewforcesthatwilldrive12inthetwenty-firstcentury.13mostpeopleandcompaniesbuynewcomputersbecausethehardwarehasfasterprocessorsormorestoragecapacityorbecauseitisfashionabletoownanewmodel14becausecompetitorshaveboughtthemand"wecan’taffordtofallbehind."Imaginethe15ofacompanybuyinganewdevicebecausethemotorturnsatahigher16orbecauseit’sinvoguetodosoorbecausethecompetitionjustboughtthatmodel17ofwhetherthemachinecanmoveanymoreearthinanhour! Let’sexplorehowtheInformationmarketplacemighthelpusinthe18questtogetmoreresultsforless19.Todothiswewillfirstexamineaseriesof"faults"--waysinwhichcomputertechnologyis20todaybecauseofeithertechnologicalorhumanweaknesses.Correctingthesefaultswillbethefirststeptowardincreasingourproductivity.MakingtheInformationMarketplaceeasiertousewillbethesecondstep. 17
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatlyimprovingtheproductivityoffarmers.Enginesand1electricity2theindustrialrevolutionsby3improvingtheproductivityofworkersinmanufacturingandtransportation.Ifthereistobeatrueinformationrevolutionthencomputerswillhaveto4thepatternwithinformationandinformationwork. Informationtechnologyhas5beguntoimproveproductivityandithasevenhurtitinsomecases;ittakeslongertowade6thoseendlessautomatedphoneansweringmenus7itdoestotalktoahumanoperator.8productivitywillrise9computersandcommunicationsareusedintheInforma-tionMarketplacetorelievepeopleofbrainwork10industrialmachineryrelievedusofphysicalwork. TheInformationMarketplacewillgive11totwogreatnewforcesthatwilldrive12inthetwenty-firstcentury.13mostpeopleandcompaniesbuynewcomputersbecausethehardwarehasfasterprocessorsormorestoragecapacityorbecauseitisfashionabletoownanewmodel14becausecompetitorshaveboughtthemand"wecan’taffordtofallbehind."Imaginethe15ofacompanybuyinganewdevicebecausethemotorturnsatahigher16orbecauseit’sinvoguetodosoorbecausethecompetitionjustboughtthatmodel17ofwhetherthemachinecanmoveanymoreearthinanhour! Let’sexplorehowtheInformationmarketplacemighthelpusinthe18questtogetmoreresultsforless19.Todothiswewillfirstexamineaseriesof"faults"--waysinwhichcomputertechnologyis20todaybecauseofeithertechnologicalorhumanweaknesses.Correctingthesefaultswillbethefirststeptowardincreasingourproductivity.MakingtheInformationMarketplaceeasiertousewillbethesecondstep. 13
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatlyimprovingtheproductivityoffarmers.Enginesand1electricity2theindustrialrevolutionsby3improvingtheproductivityofworkersinmanufacturingandtransportation.Ifthereistobeatrueinformationrevolutionthencomputerswillhaveto4thepatternwithinformationandinformationwork. Informationtechnologyhas5beguntoimproveproductivityandithasevenhurtitinsomecases;ittakeslongertowade6thoseendlessautomatedphoneansweringmenus7itdoestotalktoahumanoperator.8productivitywillrise9computersandcommunicationsareusedintheInforma-tionMarketplacetorelievepeopleofbrainwork10industrialmachineryrelievedusofphysicalwork. TheInformationMarketplacewillgive11totwogreatnewforcesthatwilldrive12inthetwenty-firstcentury.13mostpeopleandcompaniesbuynewcomputersbecausethehardwarehasfasterprocessorsormorestoragecapacityorbecauseitisfashionabletoownanewmodel14becausecompetitorshaveboughtthemand"wecan’taffordtofallbehind."Imaginethe15ofacompanybuyinganewdevicebecausethemotorturnsatahigher16orbecauseit’sinvoguetodosoorbecausethecompetitionjustboughtthatmodel17ofwhetherthemachinecanmoveanymoreearthinanhour! Let’sexplorehowtheInformationmarketplacemighthelpusinthe18questtogetmoreresultsforless19.Todothiswewillfirstexamineaseriesof"faults"--waysinwhichcomputertechnologyis20todaybecauseofeithertechnologicalorhumanweaknesses.Correctingthesefaultswillbethefirststeptowardincreasingourproductivity.MakingtheInformationMarketplaceeasiertousewillbethesecondstep. 15
Text1 Atsomepointduringtheireducationbiologystudentsaretoldaboutaconversationinapubthattookplaceover50yearsago.J.B.S.HaldaneaBritishgeneticistwasaskedwhetherhewouldlaydownhislifeforhiscountry.Afterdoingaquickcalculationonthebackofanapkinhesaidhewoulddosofortwobrothersoreightcousins.Inotherwordshewoulddietoprotecttheequivalentofhisgeneticcontributiontothenextgeneration. Thetheoryofkinselection--theideathatanimalscanpassontheirgenesbyhelpingtheircloserelatives--isbiology’sexplanationforseeminglyaltruisticacts.Anindividualcarryinggenesthatpromotealtruismmightbeexpectedtodieyoungerthanonewith"selfish"genesandthustohaveareducedcontributiontothenextgeneration’sgeneticpoolButifthesameindividualactsaltruisticallytoprotectitsrelativesgenesforaltruisticbehaviormightneverthelesspropagate. Actsofapparentaltruismtonon-relativescanalsobeexplainedawayinwhathasbecomeacottageindustrywithinbiology.Ananimalmightcarefortheoffspringofanotherthatitisunrelatedtobecauseithopestoobtainthesamebenefitsforitselflateronaphenomenonknownasreciprocalaltruism.Thehunterwhogenerouslyshareshisspoilswithothersmaybedoingsoinordertosignalhissuperiorstatustofemalesandultimatelyboosthisbreedingsuccess.Theseapparentlyselflessactsarethereforedisguisedactsofself-interest. Alloftheseexamplesfiteconomists’argumentsthatHomosapiensisalsoHomoeconomicus--maximizingsomethingthateconomistscallutilityandbiologistsfitness.Butthereisaresiduumofhumanactivitythatdefiessuchexplanations:peoplecontributetocharitiesforthehomelessreturnlostwalletsdovoluntaryworkandtipwaitersinrestaurantstowhichtheydonotplantoreturn.Botheconomicrationalismandnaturalselectionofferfewexplanationsforsuchrandomactsofkindness.Norcantheyeasilyexplaintheopposite:spitefulbehaviorwhensomeoneharmshisowninterestinordertodamagethatofanother.Butpeoplearenowtryingtofindanswers. Whenanewphenomenonisrecognizedbyscienceanamealwayshelps.InapaperinHumanNatureDr.Fehrandhiscolleaguesargueforabehavioralpropensitytheycall"strongreciprocity".Thisnameisintendedtodistinguishitfromreciprocalaltruism.AccordingtoDr.Fehrapersonisastrongreciprocatorifheiswillingtosacrificeresourcestobekindtothosewhoarebeingkindandtopunishthosewhoarebeingunkind.Significantlystrongreciprocatorswillbehavethiswayevenifdoingsoprovidesnoprospectofmaterialrewardsinthefuture. ThestoryofJ.B.S.Haldaneismentionedinthetext
Text1 TheEuropeanUnion’sBareelonasummitwhichendedonMarch16thwasplayedoutagainsttheusualbackdropofnoisy"anti-globalisation"demonstrationsandmassivesecurity.IfnothingelsethedemonstrationsillustratedthateconomicliberalizationinEurope-themeeting’smaintopic--presentsgenuinepoliticaldifficulties.Influentialsectionsofpublicopinioncontinuetoopposeanythingthattheyimaginethreatens"socialEurope"theidealofacradle-to-gravewelfarestate. InthisclimateofpublicopinionitisnotsurprisingthattheoutcomeinBarcelonawasmodest.ThetotemicissuewasopeningupEurope’senergymarkets.TheFrenchgovernmenthasfoughthardtopreserveaprotectedmarketathomeforitsstate-ownednationalchampionElectricitedeFranceEDF.AtBarcelonaitmadeawellflaggedtacticalretreat.Thesummiteersconcludedthatfrom2004industrialusersacrossEuropewouldbeabletochoosefromcompetingenergysupplierswhichshouldaccountfor"atleast"60%ofthemarket. SinceEurope’senergymarketisworth350billion$309billionayearandaffectsjustabouteverybusinessthisisabreakthrough.Buteventheenergydealhasdisappointingaspects.Confiningcompetitiontobusinessusersmakesithardertoshowthateconomicliberalizationisthefriendratherthanthefoeoftheordinaryperson.ItalsoallowsEDFtokeepitsmonopolyinthemostprofitablechunkoftheFrenchmarket. InotherareasespeciallytodowithEurope’stoughlabormarketstheEUisactuallygoingbackwards.Thesummiteersdeclaredthat"disincentivesagainsttakingupjobs"shouldberemoved;20mjobsshouldbecreatedwithintheEUby2010.ButonlythreedaysafteraBarcelonajamboreetheEuropeanCommissionendorsedanewlawthatwouldgivealltemporary-agencyworkersthesamerightsasfull-timerswithinsixweeksofgettingtheirfeetunderthedesk.sixoutof20commissionersdidunusuallyvoteagainstthemeasure--ablatantpieceofre-regulation--butthesocialaffairscommissionerAnnaDiamantopoulouwasunrepentantindeedtriumphant.Adissatisfiedliberaliserinthecommissioncalledthedirective"anabsolutedisaster". Thesummit’sotherachievementsarestillmorefragile.Europe’sleaderspromisedtoincreasespendingon"researchanddevelopment"fromitscurrentfigureof1.9%ofGDPayearto3%.ButhowwillEuropeanpoliticianscompelbusinessestoinvestmoreinresearchNobodyseemstoknow.AndtheonebigresearchprojectagreedonatBarcelonatheGalileosatellite-positioningsystemwhichissupposedtocost3.2billionofpublicmoneyisofdubiouscommercialvaluesincetheEuropeansalreadyenjoyfreeaccesstotheAmericans’GPAsystem.EdwardBannermanheadofeconomicsattheCentreforEuropeanReformaBlairitethink-tankcallsGalileo"thecommonagriculturalpolicyinspace". WhichofthefollowingisNOTmentionedinthetext
Everymanisrichorpooraccordingtothedegreeinwhichhecanaffordtoenjoythenecessariesconveniencesandamusementsofhumanlife.46Butafterthedivisionoflaborhasoncethoroughlytakenplaceitisbutaverysmallpartofthesewithwhichaman’sownlaborcansupplyhimthefargreaterpartofthembemustderivefromthelaborofotherpeopleandhemustberichorpooraccordingtothequantityofthatlaborwhichhecancommandorwhichhecanaffordtopurchase.47Thevalueofanycommoditythereforetothepersonwhopossessesitisequaltothequantityoflaborwhichitenableshimtopurchaseorcommand.Laborthereforeistherealmeasureoftheexchangeablevalueofallcommodities. Therealpriceofeverythingwhateverythingreallycoststothemanwhowantstoacquireitisthetoilandtroubleofacquiringit.48Whateverythingisreallyworthtothemanwhohasacquireditandwhowantstodisposeofitorexchangeitforsomethingelseisthetoilandtroublewhichitcansavetohimselfandwhichitcanimposeuponotherpeople.Whatisboughtwithmoneyorwithgoodsispurchasedbylaborasmuchaswhatweacquirebythetoilofourownbody.Thatmoneyorthosegoodsindeedsaveusthistoil.49Theycontainthevalueofacertainquantityoflaborwhichweexchangeforwhatissupposedatthetimetocontainthevalueofanequalquantity.Laborwasthefirstpricetheoriginalpurchase-moneythataspaidforallthings.Itwasnotbygoldorbysilverbutbylaborthatallthewealthoftheworldwasoriginallypurchased;and50itsvaluetothosewhopossessitandwhowanttoexchangeitforsomenewproductionsispreciselytothequantityoflaborwhichitcanenablethemtopurchaseorcommand. WealthasMr.Hobbessaysispower.Butthepersonwhoeitheracquiresorsucceedstoagreatfortunedoesnotnecessarilyacquireorsucceedtoanypoliticalpowereithercivilormilitary.Hisfortunemayperhapsaffordhimthemeansofacquiringbothbutthemerepossessionofthatfortunedoesnotnecessarilyconveytohimeither. 49
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