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单侧肺局限性哮鸣音可见于
心源性哮喘
阻塞性肺气肿
慢性肺脓肿
充血性心力衰竭
支气管肺癌
单侧肺局限性哮鸣音可见于
支气管哮喘
阻塞性肺气肿
肺炎
液气胸
支气管肺癌
单侧肺局限性哮鸣音可见于下列哪项疾病
支气管哮喘
阻塞性肺气肿
肺炎
液气胸
支气管肺癌
单侧肺局限性哮鸣音可见于下列哪种疾病
支气管哮喘
阻塞性肺气肿
肺炎
液气胸
支气管肺癌
单侧局限性哮鸣音可见于以下哪种疾病
支气管哮喘
慢性阻塞性肺疾病
肺炎
液气胸
支气管肿瘤或异物
单侧肺局限性哮鸣音可见于
支气管哮喘
阻塞性肺气肿
肺炎
液气胸
支气管肺癌(57/2003)
单侧局限性哮鸣音可见于下列哪种疾病.
支气管哮喘
慢性阻塞性肺疾病
肺炎
液气胸
支气管肿瘤或异物
单侧为局限性哮鸣音可见于下列哪种疾病
支气管哮喘
慢性阻塞性肺疾病
肺炎
液气胸
支气管肿瘤或异物
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Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting.
Itwas3:45inthemorningwhenthevotewasfinallytaken.Aftersixmonthsofarguingandfinal16hoursofhotparliamentarydebatesAustralia’’sNorthernTerritorybecamethefirstlegalauthorityintheworldtoallowdoctorstotakethelivesofincurablyiiipatientswhowishtodie.Themeasurepassedbytheconvincingvoteof15to10.AlmostimmediatelywordflashedontheInternetandwaspickeduphalfaworldawaybyJohnHofsessexecutivedirectoroftheRighttoDieSocietyofCanada.Hesentitonviathegroup’’son-lineserviceDeathNET.SaysHofsess:Wepostedbulletinsalldaylongbecauseofcoursethisisn’’tjustsomethingthathappenedinAustralia.It’’sworldhistory. Thefullimportmaytakeawhiletosinkin.TheNTRightsoftheTerminallyIlllawhasleftphysiciansandcitizensaliketryingtodealwithitsmoralandpracticalimplications.Somehavebreathedsighsofrelief;othersincludingchurchesright-w-lifegroupsandtheAustralianMedicalAssociationbitterlyattackedthebillandthehasteofitspassage.Butthefideisunlikelytoturnback.InAustralia―whereanagingpopulationlife-extendingtechnology’’andchangingcommunityattitudeshaveallplayedtheirpart―otherstatesaregoingtoconsidermakingasimilarlawtodealwitheuthanasia.IntheUSandCanadawheretheright-to-diemovementisgatheringstrengthobserversarewaitingforthedominoestostartfalling. UnderthenewNorthernTerritorylawanadultpatientcanrequestdeath―probablybyadeadlyinjectionorpill―toputanendtosuffering.Thepatientmustbediagnosedasterminallyillbytwodoctors.Afteracoolingoffperiodofsevendaysthepatientcansignacertificateofrequest.After48hoursthewishfordeathcanbemet.ForLloydNicksona54-year-oldDarwinresidentsufferingfromlungcancertheNTRightsofTerminallyIlllawmeanshecangetonwithlivingwithoutthehauntingfearofhissufferingaterrifyingdeathfromhisbreathingcondition.I’’mnotafraidofdyingfromaspiritualpointofviewbutwhatIwasafraidofwashowI’’dgobecauseI’’vewatchedpeopledieinthehospitalfightingforoxygenandclawingattheirmaskshesays. Whentheauthorsaysthatobserversarewaitingforthedominoestostartfallinghemeans________.
CouldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturnSinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarchthepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost$26abarrelupfromlessthan$10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshockwhenpricesquadrupledand1979―80whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowthatthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemispherecouldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm. Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEuropetaxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailpricesoevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast. Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywereandsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservationashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavyenergy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Softwareconsultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDPinconstantpricesricheconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthatifoilpricesaveraged$22abarrelforafullyearcomparedwith$13in1998thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhandoil-importingemergingeconomies--towhichheavyindustryhasshifted--havebecomemoreenergy-intensiveandsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed. Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthatunliketherisesinthe1970sithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist’’scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%andin1979byalmost30%.
1effectofthecountry’’sgrowinghumanpopulationonitswildlife 2possiblereasonfortheeffect 3yoursuggestionforwildlifeprotection
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Accordingtothetextdecreasedevaporationismostlikelytobringabout
Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting. Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting.
Tight-lippedeldersusedtosayIt’’snotwhatyouwantinthisworldbutwhatyouget. Psychologyteachesthatyoudogetwhatyouwantifyouknowwhatyouwantandwanttherightthings. Youcanmakeamentalblueprintofadesireasyouwouldmakeablueprintofahouseandeachofusiscontinuallymakingtheseblueprintsinthegeneralroutineofeverydayliving.Ifweintendtohavefriendstodinnerweplanthemenumakeashoppinglistdecidewhichfoodtocookfirstandsuchplanningisanessentialforanytypeofmealtobeserved. Likewiseifyouwanttofindajobtakeasheetofpaperandwriteabriefaccountofyourself.Inmakingablueprintforajobbeginwithyourselfforwhenyouknowexactlywhatyouhavetoofferyoucanintelligentlyplanwheretosellyourservices. Thisaccountofyourselfisactuallyasketchofyourworkinglifeandshouldincludeeducationexperienceandreferences.Suchanaccountisvaluable.Itcanbereferredtoinfillingoutstandardapplicationblanksandisextremelyhelpfulinpersonalinterviews.Whiletalkingtoyouyourcould-beemployerisdecidingwhetheryoureducationyourexperienceandotherqualificationswillpayhimtoemployyouandyourwaresandabilitiesmustbedisplayedinanorderlyandreasonablyconnectedmanner. Whenyouhavecarefullypreparedablueprintofyourabilitiesanddesiresyouhavesomethingtangibletosell.Thenyouarereadytohuntforajob.Getallthepossibleinformationaboutyourcouldbejob.Makeinquiriesastothedetailsregardingthejobandthefirm.Keepyoureyesandearsopenanduseyourownjudgement.Spendacertainamountoftimeeachdayseekingtheemploymentyouwishforandkeepinmind:Securingajobisyourjobnow. Ablueprintmadebeforeinvitingafriendtodinnerisusedinthispassageas_______________.
Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting.
Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Tight-lippedeldersusedtosayIt’’snotwhatyouwantinthisworldbutwhatyouget. Psychologyteachesthatyoudogetwhatyouwantifyouknowwhatyouwantandwanttherightthings. Youcanmakeamentalblueprintofadesireasyouwouldmakeablueprintofahouseandeachofusiscontinuallymakingtheseblueprintsinthegeneralroutineofeverydayliving.Ifweintendtohavefriendstodinnerweplanthemenumakeashoppinglistdecidewhichfoodtocookfirstandsuchplanningisanessentialforanytypeofmealtobeserved. Likewiseifyouwanttofindajobtakeasheetofpaperandwriteabriefaccountofyourself.Inmakingablueprintforajobbeginwithyourselfforwhenyouknowexactlywhatyouhavetoofferyoucanintelligentlyplanwheretosellyourservices. Thisaccountofyourselfisactuallyasketchofyourworkinglifeandshouldincludeeducationexperienceandreferences.Suchanaccountisvaluable.Itcanbereferredtoinfillingoutstandardapplicationblanksandisextremelyhelpfulinpersonalinterviews.Whiletalkingtoyouyourcould-beemployerisdecidingwhetheryoureducationyourexperienceandotherqualificationswillpayhimtoemployyouandyourwaresandabilitiesmustbedisplayedinanorderlyandreasonablyconnectedmanner. Whenyouhavecarefullypreparedablueprintofyourabilitiesanddesiresyouhavesomethingtangibletosell.Thenyouarereadytohuntforajob.Getallthepossibleinformationaboutyourcouldbejob.Makeinquiriesastothedetailsregardingthejobandthefirm.Keepyoureyesandearsopenanduseyourownjudgement.Spendacertainamountoftimeeachdayseekingtheemploymentyouwishforandkeepinmind:Securingajobisyourjobnow. Whenyouhavecarefullypreparedablueprintofyourabilitiesanddesiresyouhavesomething_______________.
1describethedrawing 2interpretitsmeaningand 3supportyourviewwithexamples. Youshouldwriteabout200wordsneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.20points
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Theexampleofozonereductionisusedtoshowthe
Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting.
It’’safunnythinghappiness.Peoplerefertoitassomethingtheywantsomethingmissingasifitcouldbesecurediftheyonlyknewwheretofindit.Lackofitisblamedonpastrelationshipsandhopeforitplacedonfuturelovers.Desireforitbecomesarestlessquest.Yetoverandagainintherapyitisclearthatahungrypursuitfortheillusivestateofhappinessonlyendsinfrustrationandyetmoreunhappiness. WhenIaskamanwho’’sjustturned40andwantstotrypsychotherapytotellmeaboutthedisappointmentshementionshereelsoffalist:aloveaffairthatlostitszest;aworkprojectruinedbyacolleague;aholidayspoiledbytheweather;aplanhaltedbyillhealth.Allwerepotentialroutestohappiness.Anditisthisendlessfeelingofthingsbeingspoiltthatmakeshimfeelletdownbylifeandunhappy. Hetellsmethathehadbeenawillfulchild.Hewashesaysspoiltrottenbyverylovingparents.Theyhadsufferedmuchhardshipintheirownlivesandwhenhardworkandgoodluckmadethemwellofftheydecidedthathetheironlysonwouldhavealltheyhadlackedandmore. Hehadwantedfornothing.Yetthiscamewithacost.Forhavingeverythingonaplatebeforehehadevendevelopedanappetitehadrobbedhimofthechancetoreachandstruggleforsomethingmeaningfulandofhisveryown.Therehadneverbeenanemptyspacehehadenjoyedworkingtofill.Littlewonderhewasunabletoremainattachedtoanythingoranyoneafterfrustrationsetin.Workingthroughdifficultysimplyhadn’’teverbeenaskedofhim. Whilehopefullyaby-productofdevelopingemotionalmaturityhappinesswasnotItoldhimaspecifictherapeuticaim.Buttherapycouldofferthechallengetostaywithandsograduallyunderstandthemeaningofhisunhappinessratherthanboltingwhenthegoinggotrough.Thenotionthatwecanuncoverameaningwithinoursufferingsupportsthewholetherapeuticventure.Byworkingtowardsunderstandingthereasonsforhisdisappointmentsthismanhadthechancetobeginreshapinghisownlifejourney.Thiswasunlikelytogivehimhappinessasagivenconstantbutcouldenablehimtodevelopsomethingfarmoreimportant.AsC.G.JungthefounderofAnalyticalPsychologysaid:Theprincipalaimofpsychotherapyisnottotransportthepatienttoanimpossiblestateofhappinessbuttohelphimacquiresteadfastnessandphilosophicpatienceinthefaceofsuffering.Lifedemandsforitscompletionandfulfillmentabalancebetweenjoyandsorrow. Itisausualeasewithhappinessthat
Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting.
YouborrowedsomerecentissuesofU.S.businessmagazinefromyourprofessoramonthagobutdelayedreturningthem.Writealetterofapologytoyourprofessorstatingyourreasonsforthedelayandexpressingyourthanks. Writeyourletterinnolessthan100words.WriteitneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter.UseLiMinginstead.Youdonotneedtowritetheaddress.10points
Overthepastcenturyallkindsofunfairnessanddiscriminationhavebeencondemnedormadeillegal.Butoneinsidiousformcontinuestothrivealphabetism.Thisforthoseasyetunawareofsuchadisadvantagereferstodiscriminationagainstthosewhosesurnamesbeginwithaletterinthelowerhalfofthealphabet. IthaslongbeenknownthatataxifinncalledAAAAcarshasabigadvantageoverZodiaccarswhencustomersthumbthroughtheirphonedirectories.LesswellknownistheadvantagethatAdamAbbotthasinlifeoverZoZysman.Englishnamesarefairlyevenlyspreadbetweenthehalvesofthealphabet.YetasuspiciouslylargenumberoftoppeoplehavesurnamesbeginningwithlettersbetweenAandK. ThustheAmericanpresidentandvice-presidenthavesurnamesstartingwithBandCrespectively;and26ofGeorgeBush’’spredecessorsincludinghisfatherhadsurnamesinthefirsthalfofthealphabetagainstjust16inthesecondhalf.EvenmorestrikingsixofthesevenheadsofgovernmentoftheG7richcountriesarealphabeticallyadvantagedBerlusconiBlairBushChiracChretienandKoizumi.Theworld’’sthreetopcentralbankersGreenspanDuisenbergandHayamiareallclosetothetopofthealphabetevenifoneofthemreallyusesJapanesecharacters.Asaretheworld’’sfiverichestmenGatesBuffettAllenEllisonandAlbrecht. CanthismerelybecoincidenceOnetheorydreamtupinallthesparetimeenjoyedbythealphabeticallydisadvantagedisthattherotsetsinearly.Atthestartofthefirstyearininfantschoolteachersseatpupilsalphabeticallyfromthefronttomakeiteasiertoremembertheirnames.Soshort-sightedZysmanjuniorgetsstuckinthebackrowandisrarelyaskedtheimprovingquestionsposedbythoseinsensitiveteachers.Atthetimethealphabeticallydisadvantagedmaythinktheyhavehadaluckyescape.Yettheresultmaybeworsequalificationsbecausetheygetlessindividualattentionaswellaslessconfidenceinspeakingpublicly. Thehumiliationcontinues.AtuniversitygraduationceremoniestheABCsproudlygettheirawardsfirst;bythetimetheyreachfileZysmansmostpeopleareliterallyhavingaZZZ.Shortlistsforjobinterviewselectionballotpaperslistsofconferencespeakersandattendees:alltendtobedrawnupalphabeticallyandtheirrecipientsloseinterestastheyploughthroughthem. WhatdoestheauthormeanbymostpeopleareliterallyhavingaZZZLine2Paragraph5.
Governmentsthroughouttheworldactontheassumptionthatthewelfareoftheirpeopledependslargelyontheeconomicstrengthandwealthofthecommunity.71.Undermodernconditionsthisrequiresvaryingmeasuresofcentralizedcontrolandhencethehelpofspecializedscientistssuchaseconomistsandoperationalresearchexperts.72.Furthermoreitisobviousthatthestrengthofacountry’’seconomyisdirectlyboundupwiththeefficiencyofitsagricultureandindustryandthatthisinturnrestsupontheeffortsofscientistsandtechnologistsofallkinds.Italsomeansthatgovernmentsareincreasinglycompelledtointerfereinthesesectorsinordertostepupproductionandensurethatitisutilizedtothebestadvantage.Forexampletheymayencourageresearchinvariouswaysincludingthesettingupoftheirownresearchcenters;theymayalterthestructureofeducationorinterfereinordertoreducethewastageofnaturalresourcesortapresourceshithertounexploited;ortheymayco-operatedirectlyinthegrowingnumberofinternationalprojectsrelatedtoscienceeconomicsandindustry.Inanycaseallsuchinterventionsareheavilydependentonscientificadviceandalsoscientificandtechnologicalmanpowerofallkinds. 73.Owingtotheremarkabledevelopmentinmass-communicationspeopleeverywherearefeelingnewwantsandarebeingexposedtonewcustomsandideaswhilegovernmentsareoftenforcedtointroducestirfurtherinnovationsforthereasonsgivenabove.Atthesametimethenormalrateofsocialchangethroughouttheworldistakingplaceatavastlyacceleratedspeedcomparedwiththepast.Forexample74.intheearlyinindustrializedcountriesofEuropetheprocessofindustrialization―withallthefar-reachingchangesinsocialpatternsthatfollowed--wasspreadovernearlyacenturywhereasnowadaysadevelopingnationmayundergothesameprocessinadecadeorso.Allthishastheeffectofbuildingupunusualpressuresandtensionswithinthecommunityandconsequentlypresentsseriousproblemsforthegovernmentsconcerned.75．Additionalsocialstressesmayalsooccurbecauseofthepopulationexplosionorproblemsarisingfrommassmigrationmovements--themselvesmaderelativelyeasynowadaysbymodernmeansoftransport.Asaresultofallthesefactorsgovernmentsarebecomingincreasinglydependentonbiologistsandsocialscientistsforplanningtheappropriateprogramsandputtingthemintoeffect.
Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting.
CouldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturnSinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarchthepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost$26abarrelupfromlessthan$10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshockwhenpricesquadrupledand1979―80whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowthatthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemispherecouldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm. Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEuropetaxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailpricesoevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast. Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywereandsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservationashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavyenergy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Softwareconsultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDPinconstantpricesricheconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthatifoilpricesaveraged$22abarrelforafullyearcomparedwith$13in1998thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhandoil-importingemergingeconomies--towhichheavyindustryhasshifted--havebecomemoreenergy-intensiveandsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed. Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthatunliketherisesinthe1970sithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist’’scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%andin1979byalmost30%.
Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting.
Itwas3:45inthemorningwhenthevotewasfinallytaken.Aftersixmonthsofarguingandfinal16hoursofhotparliamentarydebatesAustralia’’sNorthernTerritorybecamethefirstlegalauthorityintheworldtoallowdoctorstotakethelivesofincurablyiiipatientswhowishtodie.Themeasurepassedbytheconvincingvoteof15to10.AlmostimmediatelywordflashedontheInternetandwaspickeduphalfaworldawaybyJohnHofsessexecutivedirectoroftheRighttoDieSocietyofCanada.Hesentitonviathegroup’’son-lineserviceDeathNET.SaysHofsess:Wepostedbulletinsalldaylongbecauseofcoursethisisn’’tjustsomethingthathappenedinAustralia.It’’sworldhistory. Thefullimportmaytakeawhiletosinkin.TheNTRightsoftheTerminallyIlllawhasleftphysiciansandcitizensaliketryingtodealwithitsmoralandpracticalimplications.Somehavebreathedsighsofrelief;othersincludingchurchesright-w-lifegroupsandtheAustralianMedicalAssociationbitterlyattackedthebillandthehasteofitspassage.Butthefideisunlikelytoturnback.InAustralia―whereanagingpopulationlife-extendingtechnology’’andchangingcommunityattitudeshaveallplayedtheirpart―otherstatesaregoingtoconsidermakingasimilarlawtodealwitheuthanasia.IntheUSandCanadawheretheright-to-diemovementisgatheringstrengthobserversarewaitingforthedominoestostartfalling. UnderthenewNorthernTerritorylawanadultpatientcanrequestdeath―probablybyadeadlyinjectionorpill―toputanendtosuffering.Thepatientmustbediagnosedasterminallyillbytwodoctors.Afteracoolingoffperiodofsevendaysthepatientcansignacertificateofrequest.After48hoursthewishfordeathcanbemet.ForLloydNicksona54-year-oldDarwinresidentsufferingfromlungcancertheNTRightsofTerminallyIlllawmeanshecangetonwithlivingwithoutthehauntingfearofhissufferingaterrifyingdeathfromhisbreathingcondition.I’’mnotafraidofdyingfromaspiritualpointofviewbutwhatIwasafraidofwashowI’’dgobecauseI’’vewatchedpeopledieinthehospitalfightingforoxygenandclawingattheirmaskshesays. Theauthor’’sattitudetowardseuthanasiaseemstobethatof________.
Thereisageneralexpectationthatteacherscanspottalentedchildrenanddosomethingforthem.Butstudieshave1thatteachersdonotalways2giftedchildreneventhose3academictalent.Infactthey4toidentifyfrom10to50percentoftheirgiftedstudents. Thefirst5inidentifyinggiftedstudentsisdeterminingthe6forfindingthem.Ifwewantto7agroupofstudentsforan8mathematicsclassourapproachwouldbedifferentthan9wearelookingforstudentswithhightalent10acreative-writingprogram.Specificprogramneedsandrequirementsthen11theidentificationprocess. Subjectiveevaluation--teacher12parentreferral--shouldbe13bystandardizedtestsandother14measuresofability.Any15foridentifyinggiftedchildreninaschoolsystemshould16bothsubjectiveandobjectivemethodsof17Classroombehaviorforexamplecanpoint18children’’sabilitytoorganizeandusematerialsandrevealtheirpotentialforprocessinginformationbetterthan19atestsituation.Manyaspectsofcreativityandverbalfluencyarealsobest20inaclassroomorinformalsetting.
Governmentsthroughouttheworldactontheassumptionthatthewelfareoftheirpeopledependslargelyontheeconomicstrengthandwealthofthecommunity.71.Undermodernconditionsthisrequiresvaryingmeasuresofcentralizedcontrolandhencethehelpofspecializedscientistssuchaseconomistsandoperationalresearchexperts.72.Furthermoreitisobviousthatthestrengthofacountry’’seconomyisdirectlyboundupwiththeefficiencyofitsagricultureandindustryandthatthisinturnrestsupontheeffortsofscientistsandtechnologistsofallkinds.Italsomeansthatgovernmentsareincreasinglycompelledtointerfereinthesesectorsinordertostepupproductionandensurethatitisutilizedtothebestadvantage.Forexampletheymayencourageresearchinvariouswaysincludingthesettingupoftheirownresearchcenters;theymayalterthestructureofeducationorinterfereinordertoreducethewastageofnaturalresourcesortapresourceshithertounexploited;ortheymayco-operatedirectlyinthegrowingnumberofinternationalprojectsrelatedtoscienceeconomicsandindustry.Inanycaseallsuchinterventionsareheavilydependentonscientificadviceandalsoscientificandtechnologicalmanpowerofallkinds. 73.Owingtotheremarkabledevelopmentinmass-communicationspeopleeverywherearefeelingnewwantsandarebeingexposedtonewcustomsandideaswhilegovernmentsareoftenforcedtointroducestirfurtherinnovationsforthereasonsgivenabove.Atthesametimethenormalrateofsocialchangethroughouttheworldistakingplaceatavastlyacceleratedspeedcomparedwiththepast.Forexample74.intheearlyinindustrializedcountriesofEuropetheprocessofindustrialization―withallthefar-reachingchangesinsocialpatternsthatfollowed--wasspreadovernearlyacenturywhereasnowadaysadevelopingnationmayundergothesameprocessinadecadeorso.Allthishastheeffectofbuildingupunusualpressuresandtensionswithinthecommunityandconsequentlypresentsseriousproblemsforthegovernmentsconcerned.75．Additionalsocialstressesmayalsooccurbecauseofthepopulationexplosionorproblemsarisingfrommassmigrationmovements--themselvesmaderelativelyeasynowadaysbymodernmeansoftransport.Asaresultofallthesefactorsgovernmentsarebecomingincreasinglydependentonbiologistsandsocialscientistsforplanningtheappropriateprogramsandputtingthemintoeffect.
Overthepastcenturyallkindsofunfairnessanddiscriminationhavebeencondemnedormadeillegal.Butoneinsidiousformcontinuestothrivealphabetism.Thisforthoseasyetunawareofsuchadisadvantagereferstodiscriminationagainstthosewhosesurnamesbeginwithaletterinthelowerhalfofthealphabet. IthaslongbeenknownthatataxifinncalledAAAAcarshasabigadvantageoverZodiaccarswhencustomersthumbthroughtheirphonedirectories.LesswellknownistheadvantagethatAdamAbbotthasinlifeoverZoZysman.Englishnamesarefairlyevenlyspreadbetweenthehalvesofthealphabet.YetasuspiciouslylargenumberoftoppeoplehavesurnamesbeginningwithlettersbetweenAandK. ThustheAmericanpresidentandvice-presidenthavesurnamesstartingwithBandCrespectively;and26ofGeorgeBush’’spredecessorsincludinghisfatherhadsurnamesinthefirsthalfofthealphabetagainstjust16inthesecondhalf.EvenmorestrikingsixofthesevenheadsofgovernmentoftheG7richcountriesarealphabeticallyadvantagedBerlusconiBlairBushChiracChretienandKoizumi.Theworld’’sthreetopcentralbankersGreenspanDuisenbergandHayamiareallclosetothetopofthealphabetevenifoneofthemreallyusesJapanesecharacters.Asaretheworld’’sfiverichestmenGatesBuffettAllenEllisonandAlbrecht. CanthismerelybecoincidenceOnetheorydreamtupinallthesparetimeenjoyedbythealphabeticallydisadvantagedisthattherotsetsinearly.Atthestartofthefirstyearininfantschoolteachersseatpupilsalphabeticallyfromthefronttomakeiteasiertoremembertheirnames.Soshort-sightedZysmanjuniorgetsstuckinthebackrowandisrarelyaskedtheimprovingquestionsposedbythoseinsensitiveteachers.Atthetimethealphabeticallydisadvantagedmaythinktheyhavehadaluckyescape.Yettheresultmaybeworsequalificationsbecausetheygetlessindividualattentionaswellaslessconfidenceinspeakingpublicly. Thehumiliationcontinues.AtuniversitygraduationceremoniestheABCsproudlygettheirawardsfirst;bythetimetheyreachfileZysmansmostpeopleareliterallyhavingaZZZ.Shortlistsforjobinterviewselectionballotpaperslistsofconferencespeakersandattendees:alltendtobedrawnupalphabeticallyandtheirrecipientsloseinterestastheyploughthroughthem. Whatcanweinferfromthefirstthreeparagraphs
CouldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturnSinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarchthepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost$26abarrelupfromlessthan$10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshockwhenpricesquadrupledand1979―80whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowthatthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemispherecouldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm. Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEuropetaxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailpricesoevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast. Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywereandsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservationashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavyenergy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Softwareconsultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDPinconstantpricesricheconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthatifoilpricesaveraged$22abarrelforafullyearcomparedwith$13in1998thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhandoil-importingemergingeconomies--towhichheavyindustryhasshifted--havebecomemoreenergy-intensiveandsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed. Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthatunliketherisesinthe1970sithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist’’scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%andin1979byalmost30%. CouldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturnSinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarchthepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost$26abarrelupfromlessthan$10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshockwhenpricesquadrupledand1979―80whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowthatthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemispherecouldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm. Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEuropetaxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailpricesoevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast. Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywereandsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservationashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavyenergy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Softwareconsultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDPinconstantpricesricheconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthatifoilpricesaveraged$22abarrelforafullyearcomparedwith$13in1998thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhandoil-importingemergingeconomies--towhichheavyindustryhasshifted--havebecomemoreenergy-intensiveandsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed. Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthatunliketherisesinthe1970sithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist’’scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%andin1979byalmost30%.
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