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Directions: Professor Rodger Eade is planning to visit China as a visiting scholar. Now Mr. Li Ming...
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PartA Directions: Youareamemberofthestudents’unio
Directions: AprofessorfromAustraliawilldeliverale
Directions:YouwillinviteProfessorGreentobetheguest
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Directions:YouwillinviteProfessorGreentobethegues
Directions:Youhaveafewquestionstoaskyourprofessorb
Directions:ProfessorWangyourseniormiddleschoolEngl
Directions:Youhavehadanaccidentandareinhospital.Wr
Directions: Studythepictureabovecarefullyandwrite
Directions:YouwillinviteProfessorGreentobethegues
Directions: YouareplanningtoinviteProfessorLeetog
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Directions: SupposeyouaredirectorofForeignAffairs
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TheearlyretirementofexperiencedworkersisseriouslyharmingtheU.S.economyaccordingtoanewreportfromtheHudsonInstituteapublicpolicyresearchorganization.Currentlymanyolderexperiencedworkersretireatanearlyage.Accordingtotherecentlyissuedstatistics79percentofqualifiedworkersbegincollectingretirementbenefitsatage62;ifthattrendcontinuestherewillbealaborshortagethatwillhindertheeconomicgrowthinthetwenty-firstcentury. OlderAmericansconstituteanincreasingproportionofthepopulationaccordingtotheU.S.CensusBureauandthepopulationofthoseoverage65willgrowby60%between2001and2020.Duringthesameperiodthegroupaged18to44willincreasebyonly4%.KeepingolderskilledworkersemployedevenparttimewouldincreaseU.S.economicoutputandstrengthenthetaxbase;butwithoutsignificantpolicyreformsmassiveearlyretirementamongbabyboomersseemsmorelikely. Retirementatage62isaneconomicallyrationaldecisiontoday.SocialSecurityandMedicaidearningslimitsandtaxpenaltiessubjectourmostexperiencedworkerstomarginaltaxratesashighas67%.SocialSecurityformulasencourageearlyretirement.Althoughincomesusuallyrisewithadditionalyearsofworkanypayincreasesafterthe35-yearmarkresultinhighersocialSecuritytaxesbutonlysmallincreasesinbenefits. HudsonInstituteresearchersbelievethatfederaltaxandbenefitpoliciesareatfaultandreformsareurgentlyneededbuttheydisagreewiththepopularproposalthatmucholderAmericanswillhavetoworkbecauseSocialSecuritywillnotsupportthemandthatbabyboomersarenotsavingenoughforretirement.Accordingtotheincreasein401kandKeoghretirementplanstheongoingstockmarketonWallStreetandthelikelihoodoflargeinheritancesthereisevidencethatbabyboomerswillreachage65withgreaterfinancialassetsthanpreviousgenerations. TheHudsonInstituteadvocatesreforminggovernmentpoliciesthatnowdiscourageworkandsavingsespeciallyforolderworker.Amongthereport’srecommendations.TaxhalfofallSocialSecuritybenefitsregardlessofotherincome;provide80%largerbenefitsforeachyearbeyond65;andpermitworkersnearingretirementtonegotiatecompensationpackagesthatmayincludealowersalarybutwithgreaterhealthcarebenefits.Howeveritmaytakerealandfruitfulplanningtofindtherightsolutiontotheearlyretirementofolderexperiencedworkers;anymeasurestakenmustbeallowedtoprolongtheserviceabilityofolderexperiencedworkers. Towardstheissuewhatthewriterismostconcernedaboutwillbe
Companieshaveembarkedonwhatlookslikethebeginningsofare-runofthemergersandacquisitionsM&Awavethatdefinedthesecondbubblyhalfofthe1990s.Thatperiodreadersmightrecallwascharacterizedbyacollectivesplurgethatsawthecreationofsomeofthemostindebtedcompaniesinhistorymanyofwhichlaterwentbankruptorwerethemselvesbrokenup.WildbiddingfortelecomsinternetandmediaassetsnottomentionthemadnessthatwasDaimler’s$40billionmotoringtakeoverin1998-1999ofChryslerortheTime-Warner/AOLmega-mergerin2000helpedtogivemergersathoroughlybadname.AconsensusemergedthatM&Awasagreatwayforinvestmentbankstoreaprichfeesandasurewayforambitiousmanagerstobetrayinvestorsbytrashingthevalueoftheirshares. NowM&Aisback.ItsreturnisaglobalphenomenonbutitisperhapsmoststrikinginEuropewheresofarthisyeartherehasbeenastreamofdealsworthmorethan$600billionintotalaround40%higherthaninthesameperiodof2004.ThelatesteffortcamethisweekwhenFrance’sSaint-Gobainabuilding-materialsfirmunveiledthedetailsofits￡3.6billion$6.5billionhostilebidforBPBaBritishrival.Inthefirsthalfoftheyearcross-borderactivitywasupthreefoldoverthesameperiodlastyear.EvenFranceTelecomwhichwasleftalmostbankruptattheendofthelastmergerwaverecentlyboughtAmenaaSpanishmobileoperator. Shareholder’sapprovalofallthesedealsraisesaninterestingquestionforcompanieseverywhereareinvestorsrighttothinkthatthesemergersaremorelikelytosucceedthanearlieronesTherearetwoanswers.Thefirstisthatpastmergersmayhavebeenjudgedtooharshly.ThesecondisthatthepresentrashofEuropeandealsdoeslookmorerationalbut-andthecaveatiscrucial-onlysofar.Thepatternmaynothold. M&A’spoorreputationstemsnotonlyfromthestringofspectacularfailuresinthe1990sbutalsofromstudiesthatshowedvaluedestructionforacquiringshareholdersin80%ofdeals.Butmorerecentstudiesbyeconomistshaveintroducedanoteofcaution.Investorsshouldlookatthenumberofdealsthatsucceedorfailtypicallymeasuredbytheimpactonthesharepriceratherthanasyoumightthinkweighingthembysize.ForexamplenoonedoubtsthattheDaimler-Chryslermergerdestroyedvalue.ThecombinedmarketvalueofthetwofirmsisstillbelowthatofDaimleralonebeforethedeal.ThissingledealaccountedforhalfofallGermanM&Aactivitybyvaluein1998and1999andprobablydominatedpeople’sthinkingaboutmergerstothesamedegree.Throwinafewothersuchmonstersanditisnowonderthatbroadstudieshavetendedtofindthatmergersareabadidea.Thetruepictureismorecomplicated. Theconclusionreachedbygeneralresearchesisthatmergersarenot
Companieshaveembarkedonwhatlookslikethebeginningsofare-runofthemergersandacquisitionsM&Awavethatdefinedthesecondbubblyhalfofthe1990s.Thatperiodreadersmightrecallwascharacterizedbyacollectivesplurgethatsawthecreationofsomeofthemostindebtedcompaniesinhistorymanyofwhichlaterwentbankruptorwerethemselvesbrokenup.WildbiddingfortelecomsinternetandmediaassetsnottomentionthemadnessthatwasDaimler’s$40billionmotoringtakeoverin1998-1999ofChryslerortheTime-Warner/AOLmega-mergerin2000helpedtogivemergersathoroughlybadname.AconsensusemergedthatM&Awasagreatwayforinvestmentbankstoreaprichfeesandasurewayforambitiousmanagerstobetrayinvestorsbytrashingthevalueoftheirshares. NowM&Aisback.ItsreturnisaglobalphenomenonbutitisperhapsmoststrikinginEuropewheresofarthisyeartherehasbeenastreamofdealsworthmorethan$600billionintotalaround40%higherthaninthesameperiodof2004.ThelatesteffortcamethisweekwhenFrance’sSaint-Gobainabuilding-materialsfirmunveiledthedetailsofits￡3.6billion$6.5billionhostilebidforBPBaBritishrival.Inthefirsthalfoftheyearcross-borderactivitywasupthreefoldoverthesameperiodlastyear.EvenFranceTelecomwhichwasleftalmostbankruptattheendofthelastmergerwaverecentlyboughtAmenaaSpanishmobileoperator. Shareholder’sapprovalofallthesedealsraisesaninterestingquestionforcompanieseverywhereareinvestorsrighttothinkthatthesemergersaremorelikelytosucceedthanearlieronesTherearetwoanswers.Thefirstisthatpastmergersmayhavebeenjudgedtooharshly.ThesecondisthatthepresentrashofEuropeandealsdoeslookmorerationalbut-andthecaveatiscrucial-onlysofar.Thepatternmaynothold. M&A’spoorreputationstemsnotonlyfromthestringofspectacularfailuresinthe1990sbutalsofromstudiesthatshowedvaluedestructionforacquiringshareholdersin80%ofdeals.Butmorerecentstudiesbyeconomistshaveintroducedanoteofcaution.Investorsshouldlookatthenumberofdealsthatsucceedorfailtypicallymeasuredbytheimpactonthesharepriceratherthanasyoumightthinkweighingthembysize.ForexamplenoonedoubtsthattheDaimler-Chryslermergerdestroyedvalue.ThecombinedmarketvalueofthetwofirmsisstillbelowthatofDaimleralonebeforethedeal.ThissingledealaccountedforhalfofallGermanM&Aactivitybyvaluein1998and1999andprobablydominatedpeople’sthinkingaboutmergerstothesamedegree.Throwinafewothersuchmonstersanditisnowonderthatbroadstudieshavetendedtofindthatmergersareabadidea.Thetruepictureismorecomplicated. Thepatterninthethirdparagraphmostprobablydenotes
Directions: SupposeyouhaveafriendPaulwhoisabouttoattendcollege.Hewantsyoutoadvisehimonwhichsubjecttomajorin—historyinwhichheisveryinterestedorcomputersciencewhichoffersabetterjobprospect.Youshouldwritealettertotellhimyoursuggestion. Writeyourletterinnolessthan100words.WriteitneatlyonANSWERSHEET2. Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter;use"LiMing"instead.Donotwritetheaddress.
Itisdifficulttooverstatehowthereformssince1978haveimprovedthelifeoftheaveragecitizeninChina.AccordingtoChina’sOfficeonPovertyAlleviationandDevelopmentwellover100millionindividualshaverisenoutofdestitutionandnowliveabovetheofficialpovertylinesetatannualpercapitaincomebelow640whichequals$77.Atpresent42millionChinesestilllivebelowthepovertyline.Muchworkofcourseremainstobedoneinthisregard. InadditiontohelpingalleviatepovertytheeconomicreformsinChinahavebroughtoverallgainsaswellasthegainspercapitalincomeforbothurbanandruralresidentssuggest.Whilethereissomequestionontheveracityofdata. TheoverallqualityoflifefortheaveragecitizeninChinahasimproveddramaticallysincethereformin1978.Citizensnowhaveaccesstobetterservicesincrucialareassuchashealthcareand’education. 41.______. ThebetterlivesthatcitizensinChinanowleadisadirectresultofthedecisionbyChina’sleadershipin1978topursuethepathofeconomicreforminamoremarked-orienteddirection. DespitetheoverallimportanceofthedomesticeconomyindeterminingChina’seconomicfuturetherestillaretworeasonswhyChina’sentrytotheWTOwillhelpitscitizensleadbetterlives. 42.______. AsnotedabovegovernmentofficialsinChinareportthatroughly20%oftheincreaseinGDPduringthe1990’sisattributabletogrowthinexports. Stillexportsinsomekeysectorssuchastextilesandotherlabor-intensivesectorswouldexpand.Overallinlightoflong-termdynamiceffectstheChinesegovernmentpredictsthatChina’sentrytotheWTOwouldincreaseitsGDPby95.5billion$23.64billionor1.5percentby2005.Andwhileacknowledgingthatsome10millionjobswillbelostinagricultureautoandmachinerysectors. 43.______. Chinesefirmswillalsofaceamorestableexportenvironmentonelesssubjecttoanti-dumpingandspecialsafeguardprovisions.Thecountrywillbeabletoenjoystablemultilateralpreferentialtradepolicesinarules-basedmarket. 44.______. AsnotedaboveChina’stransitiontoamarket-orientedeconomyisnotcompleteandelementsofcentralizedplanningremain.AnditisquiteclearthatdespitetheimpressivegainsChinahasmadeeconomicallyoverthepast20yearsmanyintractableproblemsremainsuchastherestructuringofstate-ownedenterpriseshalfofwhicharelosingmoney.China’sindustriallandscapeislitteredwith"empty-shellenterprises"andstateofficialsroutinelyarguethatsome30%oftheworkforceinSOEsissuperfluous. China’sbankingsystemisinprecariouspositionaswellgivendecliningcapitaladequacyandthecontinuedrelianceofthestate-bankingsystemonpolicy-basedlendingasopposedtoexaminationofmarketcriteria.Toalargeextenttheseeconomicproblemsreflecttheinherentdifficultyoftryingtorecoverfrom30yearsofhorriblymisguidedeconomicpolicies. 45.______. [A]Millionsmorenowhaveelectricityandconsequentlyrefrigerationandtelephoneserviceaswell. [B]ThesecondandmoreimportantreasonthatChina’sentrytotheWTOwillhelpChina’scitizenryisthatitwillstrengthenthehandofpro-reformelementsinthegovernment. [C]ThebestwayoutofthiseconomicdilemmahoweverisforChinatocontinuetostrengthenitsreformeffortnottorestrict. [D]Inthelate-1990sandearly-2000sthefocuswasalsoonindustrialreformwhichinvolvedthepainfulclosingofunprofitablestate-ownedfactoriesandthedevelopmentofsocialsecuritysystems. [E]FirstasChina’slargestexportmarketafterHongKongtheUnitedStatesplaysaprimaryroleinenrichingChinesecompaniesprimarilynon-state-ownedentities. [F]Surprisinglymanyinternationalcompaniesnowspendalotofmoneyontraining. [G]ChineseeconomistspredictthatWTOmembershipwillcreate12millionjobsinothersectorssuchastextilestoysandfootwear. 45
Theideathatsomegroupsofpeoplemaybemoreintelligentthanothersisoneofthosehypothesesthatdarenotspeakitsname.ButGregoryCochranis1tosayitanyway.Heisthat2birdascientistwhoworksindependently3anyinstitution.Hehelpedpopularizetheideathatsomediseasesnot4thoughttohaveabacterialcausewereactuallyinfectionswhicharousedmuchcontroversywhenitwasfirstsuggested. 5hehowevermighttrembleatthe6ofwhatheisabouttodo.Togetherwithanothertwoscientistsheispublishingapaperwhichnotonly7thatonegroupofhumanityismoreintelligentthantheothersbutexplainstheprocessthathasbroughtthisabout.Thegroupin8areaparticularpeopleoriginatedfromcentralEurope.Theprocessisnaturalselection. ThisgroupgenerallydowellinIQtest912-15pointsabovethe10valueof100andhavecontributed11totheintellectualandculturallifeoftheWestasthe12oftheirelitesincludingseveralworld-renownedscientists13.Theyalsosuffermoreoftenthanmostpeoplefromanumberofnastygeneticdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.Thesefacts14havepreviouslybeenthoughtunrelated.Theformerhasbeen15tosocialeffectssuchasastrongtraditionof16education.Thelatterwasseenasaan17ofgeneticisolation.Dr.Cochransuggeststhattheintelligenceanddiseasesareintimately18.Hisargumentisthattheunusualhistoryofthesepeoplehas19themtouniqueevolutionarypressuresthathaveresultedinthis20stateofaffairs. 11
Theideathatsomegroupsofpeoplemaybemoreintelligentthanothersisoneofthosehypothesesthatdarenotspeakitsname.ButGregoryCochranis1tosayitanyway.Heisthat2birdascientistwhoworksindependently3anyinstitution.Hehelpedpopularizetheideathatsomediseasesnot4thoughttohaveabacterialcausewereactuallyinfectionswhicharousedmuchcontroversywhenitwasfirstsuggested. 5hehowevermighttrembleatthe6ofwhatheisabouttodo.Togetherwithanothertwoscientistsheispublishingapaperwhichnotonly7thatonegroupofhumanityismoreintelligentthantheothersbutexplainstheprocessthathasbroughtthisabout.Thegroupin8areaparticularpeopleoriginatedfromcentralEurope.Theprocessisnaturalselection. ThisgroupgenerallydowellinIQtest912-15pointsabovethe10valueof100andhavecontributed11totheintellectualandculturallifeoftheWestasthe12oftheirelitesincludingseveralworld-renownedscientists13.Theyalsosuffermoreoftenthanmostpeoplefromanumberofnastygeneticdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.Thesefacts14havepreviouslybeenthoughtunrelated.Theformerhasbeen15tosocialeffectssuchasastrongtraditionof16education.Thelatterwasseenasaan17ofgeneticisolation.Dr.Cochransuggeststhattheintelligenceanddiseasesareintimately18.Hisargumentisthattheunusualhistoryofthesepeoplehas19themtouniqueevolutionarypressuresthathaveresultedinthis20stateofaffairs. 13
Theideathatsomegroupsofpeoplemaybemoreintelligentthanothersisoneofthosehypothesesthatdarenotspeakitsname.ButGregoryCochranis1tosayitanyway.Heisthat2birdascientistwhoworksindependently3anyinstitution.Hehelpedpopularizetheideathatsomediseasesnot4thoughttohaveabacterialcausewereactuallyinfectionswhicharousedmuchcontroversywhenitwasfirstsuggested. 5hehowevermighttrembleatthe6ofwhatheisabouttodo.Togetherwithanothertwoscientistsheispublishingapaperwhichnotonly7thatonegroupofhumanityismoreintelligentthantheothersbutexplainstheprocessthathasbroughtthisabout.Thegroupin8areaparticularpeopleoriginatedfromcentralEurope.Theprocessisnaturalselection. ThisgroupgenerallydowellinIQtest912-15pointsabovethe10valueof100andhavecontributed11totheintellectualandculturallifeoftheWestasthe12oftheirelitesincludingseveralworld-renownedscientists13.Theyalsosuffermoreoftenthanmostpeoplefromanumberofnastygeneticdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.Thesefacts14havepreviouslybeenthoughtunrelated.Theformerhasbeen15tosocialeffectssuchasastrongtraditionof16education.Thelatterwasseenasaan17ofgeneticisolation.Dr.Cochransuggeststhattheintelligenceanddiseasesareintimately18.Hisargumentisthattheunusualhistoryofthesepeoplehas19themtouniqueevolutionarypressuresthathaveresultedinthis20stateofaffairs. 5
Theideathatsomegroupsofpeoplemaybemoreintelligentthanothersisoneofthosehypothesesthatdarenotspeakitsname.ButGregoryCochranis1tosayitanyway.Heisthat2birdascientistwhoworksindependently3anyinstitution.Hehelpedpopularizetheideathatsomediseasesnot4thoughttohaveabacterialcausewereactuallyinfectionswhicharousedmuchcontroversywhenitwasfirstsuggested. 5hehowevermighttrembleatthe6ofwhatheisabouttodo.Togetherwithanothertwoscientistsheispublishingapaperwhichnotonly7thatonegroupofhumanityismoreintelligentthantheothersbutexplainstheprocessthathasbroughtthisabout.Thegroupin8areaparticularpeopleoriginatedfromcentralEurope.Theprocessisnaturalselection. ThisgroupgenerallydowellinIQtest912-15pointsabovethe10valueof100andhavecontributed11totheintellectualandculturallifeoftheWestasthe12oftheirelitesincludingseveralworld-renownedscientists13.Theyalsosuffermoreoftenthanmostpeoplefromanumberofnastygeneticdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.Thesefacts14havepreviouslybeenthoughtunrelated.Theformerhasbeen15tosocialeffectssuchasastrongtraditionof16education.Thelatterwasseenasaan17ofgeneticisolation.Dr.Cochransuggeststhattheintelligenceanddiseasesareintimately18.Hisargumentisthattheunusualhistoryofthesepeoplehas19themtouniqueevolutionarypressuresthathaveresultedinthis20stateofaffairs. 1
Itisdifficulttooverstatehowthereformssince1978haveimprovedthelifeoftheaveragecitizeninChina.AccordingtoChina’sOfficeonPovertyAlleviationandDevelopmentwellover100millionindividualshaverisenoutofdestitutionandnowliveabovetheofficialpovertylinesetatannualpercapitaincomebelow640whichequals$77.Atpresent42millionChinesestilllivebelowthepovertyline.Muchworkofcourseremainstobedoneinthisregard. InadditiontohelpingalleviatepovertytheeconomicreformsinChinahavebroughtoverallgainsaswellasthegainspercapitalincomeforbothurbanandruralresidentssuggest.Whilethereissomequestionontheveracityofdata. TheoverallqualityoflifefortheaveragecitizeninChinahasimproveddramaticallysincethereformin1978.Citizensnowhaveaccesstobetterservicesincrucialareassuchashealthcareand’education. 41.______. ThebetterlivesthatcitizensinChinanowleadisadirectresultofthedecisionbyChina’sleadershipin1978topursuethepathofeconomicreforminamoremarked-orienteddirection. DespitetheoverallimportanceofthedomesticeconomyindeterminingChina’seconomicfuturetherestillaretworeasonswhyChina’sentrytotheWTOwillhelpitscitizensleadbetterlives. 42.______. AsnotedabovegovernmentofficialsinChinareportthatroughly20%oftheincreaseinGDPduringthe1990’sisattributabletogrowthinexports. Stillexportsinsomekeysectorssuchastextilesandotherlabor-intensivesectorswouldexpand.Overallinlightoflong-termdynamiceffectstheChinesegovernmentpredictsthatChina’sentrytotheWTOwouldincreaseitsGDPby95.5billion$23.64billionor1.5percentby2005.Andwhileacknowledgingthatsome10millionjobswillbelostinagricultureautoandmachinerysectors. 43.______. Chinesefirmswillalsofaceamorestableexportenvironmentonelesssubjecttoanti-dumpingandspecialsafeguardprovisions.Thecountrywillbeabletoenjoystablemultilateralpreferentialtradepolicesinarules-basedmarket. 44.______. AsnotedaboveChina’stransitiontoamarket-orientedeconomyisnotcompleteandelementsofcentralizedplanningremain.AnditisquiteclearthatdespitetheimpressivegainsChinahasmadeeconomicallyoverthepast20yearsmanyintractableproblemsremainsuchastherestructuringofstate-ownedenterpriseshalfofwhicharelosingmoney.China’sindustriallandscapeislitteredwith"empty-shellenterprises"andstateofficialsroutinelyarguethatsome30%oftheworkforceinSOEsissuperfluous. China’sbankingsystemisinprecariouspositionaswellgivendecliningcapitaladequacyandthecontinuedrelianceofthestate-bankingsystemonpolicy-basedlendingasopposedtoexaminationofmarketcriteria.Toalargeextenttheseeconomicproblemsreflecttheinherentdifficultyoftryingtorecoverfrom30yearsofhorriblymisguidedeconomicpolicies. 45.______. [A]Millionsmorenowhaveelectricityandconsequentlyrefrigerationandtelephoneserviceaswell. [B]ThesecondandmoreimportantreasonthatChina’sentrytotheWTOwillhelpChina’scitizenryisthatitwillstrengthenthehandofpro-reformelementsinthegovernment. [C]ThebestwayoutofthiseconomicdilemmahoweverisforChinatocontinuetostrengthenitsreformeffortnottorestrict. [D]Inthelate-1990sandearly-2000sthefocuswasalsoonindustrialreformwhichinvolvedthepainfulclosingofunprofitablestate-ownedfactoriesandthedevelopmentofsocialsecuritysystems. [E]FirstasChina’slargestexportmarketafterHongKongtheUnitedStatesplaysaprimaryroleinenrichingChinesecompaniesprimarilynon-state-ownedentities. [F]Surprisinglymanyinternationalcompaniesnowspendalotofmoneyontraining. [G]ChineseeconomistspredictthatWTOmembershipwillcreate12millionjobsinothersectorssuchastextilestoysandfootwear. 43
Theideathatsomegroupsofpeoplemaybemoreintelligentthanothersisoneofthosehypothesesthatdarenotspeakitsname.ButGregoryCochranis1tosayitanyway.Heisthat2birdascientistwhoworksindependently3anyinstitution.Hehelpedpopularizetheideathatsomediseasesnot4thoughttohaveabacterialcausewereactuallyinfectionswhicharousedmuchcontroversywhenitwasfirstsuggested. 5hehowevermighttrembleatthe6ofwhatheisabouttodo.Togetherwithanothertwoscientistsheispublishingapaperwhichnotonly7thatonegroupofhumanityismoreintelligentthantheothersbutexplainstheprocessthathasbroughtthisabout.Thegroupin8areaparticularpeopleoriginatedfromcentralEurope.Theprocessisnaturalselection. ThisgroupgenerallydowellinIQtest912-15pointsabovethe10valueof100andhavecontributed11totheintellectualandculturallifeoftheWestasthe12oftheirelitesincludingseveralworld-renownedscientists13.Theyalsosuffermoreoftenthanmostpeoplefromanumberofnastygeneticdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.Thesefacts14havepreviouslybeenthoughtunrelated.Theformerhasbeen15tosocialeffectssuchasastrongtraditionof16education.Thelatterwasseenasaan17ofgeneticisolation.Dr.Cochransuggeststhattheintelligenceanddiseasesareintimately18.Hisargumentisthattheunusualhistoryofthesepeoplehas19themtouniqueevolutionarypressuresthathaveresultedinthis20stateofaffairs. 3
Childreninanysocietyareexpectedtolearntoconformtoanumberofsocialrulesandexpectationsiftheyaretobecomeparticipantsintheculture.46Amongtherulesthatchildreninoursocietyareexpectedtolearnarethatcertainclassesofadultssuchasteachersanddoctorsareaddressedbytitlesthatmalesandfemalesuseseparaterestroomfacilitiesandthatwomenbutnotmenweardresses.Theseareexamplesofsocialconventions.Intheabsenceofsuchasharednormtheactsareneitherrightnorwrong.Forthisreasonconventionsmaybesaidtobearbitrary.Forexample47wecouldjustaseasilyhavestudentsaddressteachersbyfirstnamesashavethemcallteachersbytheirlastnamesandformaltitlesofMr.orMs. Conventionshoweverserveanimportantfunctionbyprovidingpredictabilityandordertosociallife.48Withoutsocialconventionsitwouldbeimpossibletoorganizesocialinstitutionssuchasschoolsandsocietiesasorganizedsystemscouldnotexist.Thearbitrarinessofconventionsmakestheirimportancedifficultforchildrentofigureout.49Itisnotuntilsometimeinadolescencethatchildrencometofullyunderstandthefunctionthatthesearbitraryconventionsservetoprovidepredictabilityandordertooursocialinteractions. Incontrastwithissuesofconventionaremattersofmorality.Moralityreferstoissuesofhumanwelfarejusticeandrightsthatareafunctionoftheinherentfeaturesofinterpersonalrelations.Becauseofthistherightandwrongofmoralactionsarenotsimplydeterminedbysocialconsensusortheviewsofauthority.Forexampleitisnotpossibletohitanotherpersonwithforceandnothurttheotherperson.Similarlyitisnotpossibletostealsomethingvaluablefromsomeoneelseandnotcausethepersontoexperiencethesenseofloss.Amoraljudgmentaboutunprovokedharm"Itiswrongtohit"wouldnotbedependentontheexistenceofasociallyagreeduponruleorstandardbutcouldbegeneratedsolelyfromtheintrinsiceffectsoftheacti.e.hittinghurts.50Similaranalysescouldbedoneregardingabroaderrangeofissuesthatwouldextendbeyonddirectharmtoconcernsforwhatitmeanstobejustcompassionateandconsiderateoftherightsofothers. 47wecouldjustaseasilyhavestudentsaddressteachersbyfirstnamesashavethemcallteachersbytheirlastnamesandformaltitlesofMr.orMs.
46Arecentphenomenoninpresent-dayscienceandtechnologyistheincreasingtrendtowards"directed"or"programmed"research;i.e.researchwhosescopeandobjectivesarepredeterminedbyprivateorgovernmentorganizationsratherthanresearchersthemselves.Anyscientistworkingforsuchorganizationsandinvestigatinginagivenfieldthereforetendstodosoinaccordancewithaplanorprogramdesignedbeforehand. Atthebeginningofthecenturyhoweverthesituationwasquitedifferent.Atthattimetherewerenoindustrialresearchorganizationsinthemodernsense:thelaboratoryunitconsistedofafewscientistsatthemostassistedbyoneortwotechnicians.47Neverthelessthescientistoftenworkingwithinadequateequipmentinunsuitableroomswasfreetochooseanysubjectforinvestigationhelikedsincetherewasnopredeterminedprogramtowhichhehadtoconform. 48Asthecenturydevelopedtheincreasingmagnitudeandcomplexityoftheproblemstobesolvedmadeitimpossibleinmanycasesfortheindividualscientisttodealwiththehugemassofnewdatatechniquesandequipmentthatwererequiredforcarryingoutresearchaccuratelyandefficiently.Theincreasingscaleandscopeoftheexperimentsneededtotestnewhypothesesanddevelopnewtechniquesandindustrialprocessesledtothesettingupofresearchgroupsorteamsusinghighly-complicatedequipmentinelaborately-designedlaboratories.49Owingtothelargesumsofmoneyinvolveditwasthenfeltessentialtodirectthesehumanandmaterialresourcesintospecificchannelswithclearly-definedobjectives.Inthiswayitwasconsideredthatthequickestandmostpracticalresultscouldbeobtained.Thisthenwasprogrammedprogrammaticresearch Oneoftheeffectsofthisorganizedandstandardizedinvestigationistocausethescientisttobecomeincreasinglyinvolvedinappliedresearchdevelopmentespeciallyinthebranchesofsciencewhichseemmostlikelytohaveindustrialapplications.Privateindustryandevengovernmentdepartmentstendtoconcentrateonimmediateresultsandshowcomparativelylittleinterestinlong-rangeinvestigations.50Inconsequencethereisasteadyshiftofscientistsfromthepuretotheappliedfieldwheretherearemorejobsavailablefrequentlymorehighly-paidandwithbettertechnicalfacilitiesthanjobsconnectedwithpureresearchinauniversity. Owingtotheinterdependencebetweenpureandappliedscienceitiseasytoseethatthissystemifextendedtoofarcarriesconsiderabledangersforthefutureofscience--andnotonlypuresciencebutappliedscienceaswell.409words 47Neverthelessthescientistoftenworkingwithinadequateequipmentinunsuitableroomswasfreetochooseanysubjectforinvestigationhelikedsincetherewasnopredeterminedprogramtowhichhehadtoconform.
TheearlyretirementofexperiencedworkersisseriouslyharmingtheU.S.economyaccordingtoanewreportfromtheHudsonInstituteapublicpolicyresearchorganization.Currentlymanyolderexperiencedworkersretireatanearlyage.Accordingtotherecentlyissuedstatistics79percentofqualifiedworkersbegincollectingretirementbenefitsatage62;ifthattrendcontinuestherewillbealaborshortagethatwillhindertheeconomicgrowthinthetwenty-firstcentury. OlderAmericansconstituteanincreasingproportionofthepopulationaccordingtotheU.S.CensusBureauandthepopulationofthoseoverage65willgrowby60%between2001and2020.Duringthesameperiodthegroupaged18to44willincreasebyonly4%.KeepingolderskilledworkersemployedevenparttimewouldincreaseU.S.economicoutputandstrengthenthetaxbase;butwithoutsignificantpolicyreformsmassiveearlyretirementamongbabyboomersseemsmorelikely. Retirementatage62isaneconomicallyrationaldecisiontoday.SocialSecurityandMedicaidearningslimitsandtaxpenaltiessubjectourmostexperiencedworkerstomarginaltaxratesashighas67%.SocialSecurityformulasencourageearlyretirement.Althoughincomesusuallyrisewithadditionalyearsofworkanypayincreasesafterthe35-yearmarkresultinhighersocialSecuritytaxesbutonlysmallincreasesinbenefits. HudsonInstituteresearchersbelievethatfederaltaxandbenefitpoliciesareatfaultandreformsareurgentlyneededbuttheydisagreewiththepopularproposalthatmucholderAmericanswillhavetoworkbecauseSocialSecuritywillnotsupportthemandthatbabyboomersarenotsavingenoughforretirement.Accordingtotheincreasein401kandKeoghretirementplanstheongoingstockmarketonWallStreetandthelikelihoodoflargeinheritancesthereisevidencethatbabyboomerswillreachage65withgreaterfinancialassetsthanpreviousgenerations. TheHudsonInstituteadvocatesreforminggovernmentpoliciesthatnowdiscourageworkandsavingsespeciallyforolderworker.Amongthereport’srecommendations.TaxhalfofallSocialSecuritybenefitsregardlessofotherincome;provide80%largerbenefitsforeachyearbeyond65;andpermitworkersnearingretirementtonegotiatecompensationpackagesthatmayincludealowersalarybutwithgreaterhealthcarebenefits.Howeveritmaytakerealandfruitfulplanningtofindtherightsolutiontotheearlyretirementofolderexperiencedworkers;anymeasurestakenmustbeallowedtoprolongtheserviceabilityofolderexperiencedworkers. AccordingtoHudsonInstituteresearcherstheeffectoftheearlyretirementofqualifiedworkersintheU.S.economyis
In1879RichardHenryPrattfoundedtheCarlisleIndianSchoolaremarkable40-yearchapterinthiscountry’sfailedsocialpolicyregardingNativeAmericans.Pratt’sfaithcouldbesimplydescribedas:"KilltheIndianSavetheMan!"toeradicateanymanifestationsoftheirnativeculture.Whenfourdecadesofforcibleeducationendedin1918itwasn’tclearwhatPratt’sexperimenthadkilledandwhatithadsaved.Buttherewasoneindisputablynotablelegacy--theCarlislefootballteam.Intheearly20thcenturytheCarlisleIndiansascendedtothepinnacle顶点ofthecollegiategame.InthoseyearsitbegantoengagealltheIvyfootballpowersonthegridiron运动场.Andfrom1911to1913includingtheseasoninwhichthelegendaryJimThorpereturnedfromtheOlympicstoscore25touchdownsCarlislehada38-3recordincludinga27-6routofWestPoint. WashingtonPostsportswriterSallyJenkinshasproducedafascinatingnewbook"TheRealAllAmericans":TheTeamThatChangedaGameaPeopleaNationDoubleday.$24.95thatexaminestheCarlislelegendinwonderfuldetail.AttheturnofthecenturyfootballwasexplodingonthecollegesceneparticularlyattheIvyeliteswherethesonsofthegentrycouldpreparefortherigorsofleadershiponthegridiron.Theypreferredtheirfootballbrutal.ConverselytheCarlisleteamwasundermannedandseriouslyundersized. ButCarlislewasblessedwithgiftedathletesandawizardofacoachPopWarner.BecauseCarlislecouldn’tmatchthebruteforceofitsrivalsWarnercreatedanentirelynewbrandoffootballrelyingonspeeddeceptionandguile.Inthat1903HarvardgameCarlisleusedthehiddenballtricktoscoreonthesecond-halfkickoff.Whilethereturnmanpretendedtocradletheballanotherplayerhadittuckedintoapocketsewninsidethebackofhisjerseyandranunmolested103yardsforatouchdown. Carlisledevelopednewblockingtechniquesthatcompensatedforitssizedisadvantage:thespiralthrowthatputthelongpasswithitspremium优势onspeedintotheoffenseandarepertoireoffakes;reversesandmisdirectionthatremainacentralpartofthegame.Ittookbrainstoconcocttheschemesandintelligencetoexecutethem.Theseinnovationsdidnotgounrecognized.AfterCarlisletrouncedArmyin1912TheNewYorkTimeshailedtheconquerorsfromCarlisleforplaying"themostperfectbrandoffootballeverseeninAmerica." Stilltodaythiscountrycelebratesfootballlikenoothersport.Jenkinsdoesamarvelousjobofmakinganintimateconnectionbetweenourbelovedmoderngameandtheunlikelyteamthatacenturyagohelpedmakeitwhatitistoday. Wecaninferfromthetextthat
46Arecentphenomenoninpresent-dayscienceandtechnologyistheincreasingtrendtowards"directed"or"programmed"research;i.e.researchwhosescopeandobjectivesarepredeterminedbyprivateorgovernmentorganizationsratherthanresearchersthemselves.Anyscientistworkingforsuchorganizationsandinvestigatinginagivenfieldthereforetendstodosoinaccordancewithaplanorprogramdesignedbeforehand. Atthebeginningofthecenturyhoweverthesituationwasquitedifferent.Atthattimetherewerenoindustrialresearchorganizationsinthemodernsense:thelaboratoryunitconsistedofafewscientistsatthemostassistedbyoneortwotechnicians.47Neverthelessthescientistoftenworkingwithinadequateequipmentinunsuitableroomswasfreetochooseanysubjectforinvestigationhelikedsincetherewasnopredeterminedprogramtowhichhehadtoconform. 48Asthecenturydevelopedtheincreasingmagnitudeandcomplexityoftheproblemstobesolvedmadeitimpossibleinmanycasesfortheindividualscientisttodealwiththehugemassofnewdatatechniquesandequipmentthatwererequiredforcarryingoutresearchaccuratelyandefficiently.Theincreasingscaleandscopeoftheexperimentsneededtotestnewhypothesesanddevelopnewtechniquesandindustrialprocessesledtothesettingupofresearchgroupsorteamsusinghighly-complicatedequipmentinelaborately-designedlaboratories.49Owingtothelargesumsofmoneyinvolveditwasthenfeltessentialtodirectthesehumanandmaterialresourcesintospecificchannelswithclearly-definedobjectives.Inthiswayitwasconsideredthatthequickestandmostpracticalresultscouldbeobtained.Thisthenwasprogrammedprogrammaticresearch Oneoftheeffectsofthisorganizedandstandardizedinvestigationistocausethescientisttobecomeincreasinglyinvolvedinappliedresearchdevelopmentespeciallyinthebranchesofsciencewhichseemmostlikelytohaveindustrialapplications.Privateindustryandevengovernmentdepartmentstendtoconcentrateonimmediateresultsandshowcomparativelylittleinterestinlong-rangeinvestigations.50Inconsequencethereisasteadyshiftofscientistsfromthepuretotheappliedfieldwheretherearemorejobsavailablefrequentlymorehighly-paidandwithbettertechnicalfacilitiesthanjobsconnectedwithpureresearchinauniversity. Owingtotheinterdependencebetweenpureandappliedscienceitiseasytoseethatthissystemifextendedtoofarcarriesconsiderabledangersforthefutureofscience--andnotonlypuresciencebutappliedscienceaswell.409words 49Owingtothelargesumsofmoneyinvolveditwasthenfeltessentialtodirectthesehumanandmaterialresourcesintospecificchannelswithclearly-definedobjectives.
BeyondquestionClintonwassupposedtocloseupstayoutofsightandavoidsecond-guessinghiswife’sboss.AfterhisegoblusteredintooncomingtrafficduringHillary’sheatedprimaryrace1ObamathenationsufferedfromyetanotherturnofClintonfatigue. 2thisweekBillClintonshowedaninstinctforrobustinclusiveleadershipthatthe3WhiteHouseoccupantcouldmakegooduseofrightforthetimebeing.WithPresidentObamastrugglingto4thepoliticaldamagefromtheGulfoilspillClintonnotonlycan’thelphimself—he’sworthbeinglistened. Theconventional-wisdom5onPresidentObama’searlyreactiontothespillwas6hedidn’temoteenough.Hedidn’tfeelthe7ofallthosepeopleinthecrisiswhoselivelihoodwouldbedestroyedwhosecleanwatersandwildlifewouldbe8inblackgunk. Clintonconsidersthisisanunfair9butoffersadifferent—andmorepointed—lessontohisyoungsuccessor."Ithinkweoughtto10inthesameboatforawhile...Let’sjust11theproblemandthenwecanholdeverybodyresponsibleandemoteornotemote"Clintonconversed12CNNAnchorWolfBlitzer. Obama’sfirst13aftertheoilspillwasto"feeltheblame"ratherthan"feelthepain"whichareprettysarcasticwordsasitwere.NooneintendstoletBritishPetroleumBPmanagement14thehook—fordangerouslycuttingcornersandfora15safetyrecord.HoweverthePresident’s16focusonscoldingBPconsumed17WhiteHouseenergywhiletheoilgushed. Greatleadersdon’trushtocriticise;Insteadtheyinstinctively18solutions.RudyGiulianiwhodidn’tstoptoblame19intelligenceforlettingithappenstoodoutfromNewYorkmayorwithagirlfriendproblemto9/11herowhenhetookcontrolofacrisisandinstilledconfidencethataravagedcitycould20beyondaterroristattack. 1
SomethingextraordinaryishappeninginLondonthisweek:inLambethoneofthecity’spoorestboroughs区180childrenarestartingtheirsecondaryeducationinabrandnewschool.Thestate-fundedschoolwassetupbyparentswhowerefedupwiththequalityoflocaleducation.Incountrieswithmoreenlightenededucationsystemsthiswouldbeunremarkable.InBritainitisanamazingachievementbyabunchofdesperateanddeterminedpeopleafteryearsofstruggle. Britain’sschoolsareinamess.Averagestandardsarenotimprovingdespitebillionsinextraspendingandastubbornlylongtailofunderachieversstraggles拖后腿behind.Acoupleofyearsagoaconsensusemergedamongreformersthatcouncilshadtoomuchcontrolandparentstoolittle. OnemighthaveexpectedmorefromtheConservativeswhostoodforelectiononapledgetobringinschoolvouchers.YettheTorypolicygroupchargedwiththinkingdeepthoughtsaboutpublicservicespaidonlylipservicetoparentpowerinitsreport.Whereschoolsarefailingitsaidparentsorcharitiesshouldgettaxpayers’moneytoopennewones.Butonly2.9%areactuallyfailingonofficialdefinitions.Andanotherproposalthatchildreninfailingschoolsgetextrafundingiftheygoelsewherewassolackingindetailastobemeaningless. WorryaboutunderperformingschoolsishardlyconfinedtoBritain:inAmericainItalyinGermanyeveninonce-proudFranceeducationisahot-buttontopic.Yetanumberofcountriesseemtohavecrackedit.Althoughspecificproblemsdifferindifferentsocietiesparentalchoiceisattheheartofmostsuccessfulsolutions.Whatarethelessons Thefirstisthatifacriticalmassofparentswantsanewschoolandthereisawillingproviderlocalgovernmentshouldberequiredtofinanceitasgenerouslyasitdoesexistingstateschools.Thesecondisthatifacharitywantstoopenaschoolinthehopethatchildrenwillcomethentaxpayers’moneyshouldfollowanythatdo.Thirdrulesaboutwhatwhereandhowschoolsteachshouldberelaxedtoavoidstiflinginnovationanddiscouragingnewcomerswithbigideas.Inanyeventpublic-examinationresultswouldgiveparentstheinformationtheyneededtoenforcehighstandards. TheseproposalsmayseemradicalyetparentsintheNetherlandshavehadtherighttodemandnewschoolssince1917andthoseinSwedenhavebeenfreesince1992totaketheirgovernmentmoneytoanyschoolthatsatisfiesbasicgovernmentrules.IntheNetherlands70%ofchildrenareeducatedinprivateschoolsatthetaxpayers’expense;inSweden10%alreadyare.InbothcountriesstatespendingoneducationislowerperheadthaninBritainandresultsarebetter.Itdoesn’ttakeageniusIQ--justalittlepoliticalcourage--todrawthecorrectconclusion. Whatistheauthor’sattitudetowardstheestablishmentoftheschoolinLambeth
Theideathatsomegroupsofpeoplemaybemoreintelligentthanothersisoneofthosehypothesesthatdarenotspeakitsname.ButGregoryCochranis1tosayitanyway.Heisthat2birdascientistwhoworksindependently3anyinstitution.Hehelpedpopularizetheideathatsomediseasesnot4thoughttohaveabacterialcausewereactuallyinfectionswhicharousedmuchcontroversywhenitwasfirstsuggested. 5hehowevermighttrembleatthe6ofwhatheisabouttodo.Togetherwithanothertwoscientistsheispublishingapaperwhichnotonly7thatonegroupofhumanityismoreintelligentthantheothersbutexplainstheprocessthathasbroughtthisabout.Thegroupin8areaparticularpeopleoriginatedfromcentralEurope.Theprocessisnaturalselection. ThisgroupgenerallydowellinIQtest912-15pointsabovethe10valueof100andhavecontributed11totheintellectualandculturallifeoftheWestasthe12oftheirelitesincludingseveralworld-renownedscientists13.Theyalsosuffermoreoftenthanmostpeoplefromanumberofnastygeneticdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.Thesefacts14havepreviouslybeenthoughtunrelated.Theformerhasbeen15tosocialeffectssuchasastrongtraditionof16education.Thelatterwasseenasaan17ofgeneticisolation.Dr.Cochransuggeststhattheintelligenceanddiseasesareintimately18.Hisargumentisthattheunusualhistoryofthesepeoplehas19themtouniqueevolutionarypressuresthathaveresultedinthis20stateofaffairs. 9
SomethingextraordinaryishappeninginLondonthisweek:inLambethoneofthecity’spoorestboroughs区180childrenarestartingtheirsecondaryeducationinabrandnewschool.Thestate-fundedschoolwassetupbyparentswhowerefedupwiththequalityoflocaleducation.Incountrieswithmoreenlightenededucationsystemsthiswouldbeunremarkable.InBritainitisanamazingachievementbyabunchofdesperateanddeterminedpeopleafteryearsofstruggle. Britain’sschoolsareinamess.Averagestandardsarenotimprovingdespitebillionsinextraspendingandastubbornlylongtailofunderachieversstraggles拖后腿behind.Acoupleofyearsagoaconsensusemergedamongreformersthatcouncilshadtoomuchcontrolandparentstoolittle. OnemighthaveexpectedmorefromtheConservativeswhostoodforelectiononapledgetobringinschoolvouchers.YettheTorypolicygroupchargedwiththinkingdeepthoughtsaboutpublicservicespaidonlylipservicetoparentpowerinitsreport.Whereschoolsarefailingitsaidparentsorcharitiesshouldgettaxpayers’moneytoopennewones.Butonly2.9%areactuallyfailingonofficialdefinitions.Andanotherproposalthatchildreninfailingschoolsgetextrafundingiftheygoelsewherewassolackingindetailastobemeaningless. WorryaboutunderperformingschoolsishardlyconfinedtoBritain:inAmericainItalyinGermanyeveninonce-proudFranceeducationisahot-buttontopic.Yetanumberofcountriesseemtohavecrackedit.Althoughspecificproblemsdifferindifferentsocietiesparentalchoiceisattheheartofmostsuccessfulsolutions.Whatarethelessons Thefirstisthatifacriticalmassofparentswantsanewschoolandthereisawillingproviderlocalgovernmentshouldberequiredtofinanceitasgenerouslyasitdoesexistingstateschools.Thesecondisthatifacharitywantstoopenaschoolinthehopethatchildrenwillcomethentaxpayers’moneyshouldfollowanythatdo.Thirdrulesaboutwhatwhereandhowschoolsteachshouldberelaxedtoavoidstiflinginnovationanddiscouragingnewcomerswithbigideas.Inanyeventpublic-examinationresultswouldgiveparentstheinformationtheyneededtoenforcehighstandards. TheseproposalsmayseemradicalyetparentsintheNetherlandshavehadtherighttodemandnewschoolssince1917andthoseinSwedenhavebeenfreesince1992totaketheirgovernmentmoneytoanyschoolthatsatisfiesbasicgovernmentrules.IntheNetherlands70%ofchildrenareeducatedinprivateschoolsatthetaxpayers’expense;inSweden10%alreadyare.InbothcountriesstatespendingoneducationislowerperheadthaninBritainandresultsarebetter.Itdoesn’ttakeageniusIQ--justalittlepoliticalcourage--todrawthecorrectconclusion. Accordingtothetextwhichofthefollowingistrueaboutthenewschool
Theideathatsomegroupsofpeoplemaybemoreintelligentthanothersisoneofthosehypothesesthatdarenotspeakitsname.ButGregoryCochranis1tosayitanyway.Heisthat2birdascientistwhoworksindependently3anyinstitution.Hehelpedpopularizetheideathatsomediseasesnot4thoughttohaveabacterialcausewereactuallyinfectionswhicharousedmuchcontroversywhenitwasfirstsuggested. 5hehowevermighttrembleatthe6ofwhatheisabouttodo.Togetherwithanothertwoscientistsheispublishingapaperwhichnotonly7thatonegroupofhumanityismoreintelligentthantheothersbutexplainstheprocessthathasbroughtthisabout.Thegroupin8areaparticularpeopleoriginatedfromcentralEurope.Theprocessisnaturalselection. ThisgroupgenerallydowellinIQtest912-15pointsabovethe10valueof100andhavecontributed11totheintellectualandculturallifeoftheWestasthe12oftheirelitesincludingseveralworld-renownedscientists13.Theyalsosuffermoreoftenthanmostpeoplefromanumberofnastygeneticdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.Thesefacts14havepreviouslybeenthoughtunrelated.Theformerhasbeen15tosocialeffectssuchasastrongtraditionof16education.Thelatterwasseenasaan17ofgeneticisolation.Dr.Cochransuggeststhattheintelligenceanddiseasesareintimately18.Hisargumentisthattheunusualhistoryofthesepeoplehas19themtouniqueevolutionarypressuresthathaveresultedinthis20stateofaffairs. 15
In1879RichardHenryPrattfoundedtheCarlisleIndianSchoolaremarkable40-yearchapterinthiscountry’sfailedsocialpolicyregardingNativeAmericans.Pratt’sfaithcouldbesimplydescribedas:"KilltheIndianSavetheMan!"toeradicateanymanifestationsoftheirnativeculture.Whenfourdecadesofforcibleeducationendedin1918itwasn’tclearwhatPratt’sexperimenthadkilledandwhatithadsaved.Buttherewasoneindisputablynotablelegacy--theCarlislefootballteam.Intheearly20thcenturytheCarlisleIndiansascendedtothepinnacle顶点ofthecollegiategame.InthoseyearsitbegantoengagealltheIvyfootballpowersonthegridiron运动场.Andfrom1911to1913includingtheseasoninwhichthelegendaryJimThorpereturnedfromtheOlympicstoscore25touchdownsCarlislehada38-3recordincludinga27-6routofWestPoint. WashingtonPostsportswriterSallyJenkinshasproducedafascinatingnewbook"TheRealAllAmericans":TheTeamThatChangedaGameaPeopleaNationDoubleday.$24.95thatexaminestheCarlislelegendinwonderfuldetail.AttheturnofthecenturyfootballwasexplodingonthecollegesceneparticularlyattheIvyeliteswherethesonsofthegentrycouldpreparefortherigorsofleadershiponthegridiron.Theypreferredtheirfootballbrutal.ConverselytheCarlisleteamwasundermannedandseriouslyundersized. ButCarlislewasblessedwithgiftedathletesandawizardofacoachPopWarner.BecauseCarlislecouldn’tmatchthebruteforceofitsrivalsWarnercreatedanentirelynewbrandoffootballrelyingonspeeddeceptionandguile.Inthat1903HarvardgameCarlisleusedthehiddenballtricktoscoreonthesecond-halfkickoff.Whilethereturnmanpretendedtocradletheballanotherplayerhadittuckedintoapocketsewninsidethebackofhisjerseyandranunmolested103yardsforatouchdown. Carlisledevelopednewblockingtechniquesthatcompensatedforitssizedisadvantage:thespiralthrowthatputthelongpasswithitspremium优势onspeedintotheoffenseandarepertoireoffakes;reversesandmisdirectionthatremainacentralpartofthegame.Ittookbrainstoconcocttheschemesandintelligencetoexecutethem.Theseinnovationsdidnotgounrecognized.AfterCarlisletrouncedArmyin1912TheNewYorkTimeshailedtheconquerorsfromCarlisleforplaying"themostperfectbrandoffootballeverseeninAmerica." Stilltodaythiscountrycelebratesfootballlikenoothersport.Jenkinsdoesamarvelousjobofmakinganintimateconnectionbetweenourbelovedmoderngameandtheunlikelyteamthatacenturyagohelpedmakeitwhatitistoday. AccordingtotheauthorthenewblockingtechniquesdevelopedbyCarlisle
Directions:Lastmonthyouboughtapairofleathershoesfromashop.Butnowyoufindthattheshoesareinbadquality.Writealettertothemanageroftheshoptoexplain 1yourcomplain 2theproblemwiththeshoesand 3yourrequest. Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter.Use"LiMing"instead.Youdonotneedtowritetheaddress.10points
Itisdifficulttooverstatehowthereformssince1978haveimprovedthelifeoftheaveragecitizeninChina.AccordingtoChina’sOfficeonPovertyAlleviationandDevelopmentwellover100millionindividualshaverisenoutofdestitutionandnowliveabovetheofficialpovertylinesetatannualpercapitaincomebelow640whichequals$77.Atpresent42millionChinesestilllivebelowthepovertyline.Muchworkofcourseremainstobedoneinthisregard. InadditiontohelpingalleviatepovertytheeconomicreformsinChinahavebroughtoverallgainsaswellasthegainspercapitalincomeforbothurbanandruralresidentssuggest.Whilethereissomequestionontheveracityofdata. TheoverallqualityoflifefortheaveragecitizeninChinahasimproveddramaticallysincethereformin1978.Citizensnowhaveaccesstobetterservicesincrucialareassuchashealthcareand’education. 41.______. ThebetterlivesthatcitizensinChinanowleadisadirectresultofthedecisionbyChina’sleadershipin1978topursuethepathofeconomicreforminamoremarked-orienteddirection. DespitetheoverallimportanceofthedomesticeconomyindeterminingChina’seconomicfuturetherestillaretworeasonswhyChina’sentrytotheWTOwillhelpitscitizensleadbetterlives. 42.______. AsnotedabovegovernmentofficialsinChinareportthatroughly20%oftheincreaseinGDPduringthe1990’sisattributabletogrowthinexports. Stillexportsinsomekeysectorssuchastextilesandotherlabor-intensivesectorswouldexpand.Overallinlightoflong-termdynamiceffectstheChinesegovernmentpredictsthatChina’sentrytotheWTOwouldincreaseitsGDPby95.5billion$23.64billionor1.5percentby2005.Andwhileacknowledgingthatsome10millionjobswillbelostinagricultureautoandmachinerysectors. 43.______. Chinesefirmswillalsofaceamorestableexportenvironmentonelesssubjecttoanti-dumpingandspecialsafeguardprovisions.Thecountrywillbeabletoenjoystablemultilateralpreferentialtradepolicesinarules-basedmarket. 44.______. AsnotedaboveChina’stransitiontoamarket-orientedeconomyisnotcompleteandelementsofcentralizedplanningremain.AnditisquiteclearthatdespitetheimpressivegainsChinahasmadeeconomicallyoverthepast20yearsmanyintractableproblemsremainsuchastherestructuringofstate-ownedenterpriseshalfofwhicharelosingmoney.China’sindustriallandscapeislitteredwith"empty-shellenterprises"andstateofficialsroutinelyarguethatsome30%oftheworkforceinSOEsissuperfluous. China’sbankingsystemisinprecariouspositionaswellgivendecliningcapitaladequacyandthecontinuedrelianceofthestate-bankingsystemonpolicy-basedlendingasopposedtoexaminationofmarketcriteria.Toalargeextenttheseeconomicproblemsreflecttheinherentdifficultyoftryingtorecoverfrom30yearsofhorriblymisguidedeconomicpolicies. 45.______. [A]Millionsmorenowhaveelectricityandconsequentlyrefrigerationandtelephoneserviceaswell. [B]ThesecondandmoreimportantreasonthatChina’sentrytotheWTOwillhelpChina’scitizenryisthatitwillstrengthenthehandofpro-reformelementsinthegovernment. [C]ThebestwayoutofthiseconomicdilemmahoweverisforChinatocontinuetostrengthenitsreformeffortnottorestrict. [D]Inthelate-1990sandearly-2000sthefocuswasalsoonindustrialreformwhichinvolvedthepainfulclosingofunprofitablestate-ownedfactoriesandthedevelopmentofsocialsecuritysystems. [E]FirstasChina’slargestexportmarketafterHongKongtheUnitedStatesplaysaprimaryroleinenrichingChinesecompaniesprimarilynon-state-ownedentities. [F]Surprisinglymanyinternationalcompaniesnowspendalotofmoneyontraining. [G]ChineseeconomistspredictthatWTOmembershipwillcreate12millionjobsinothersectorssuchastextilestoysandfootwear. 41
Theideathatsomegroupsofpeoplemaybemoreintelligentthanothersisoneofthosehypothesesthatdarenotspeakitsname.ButGregoryCochranis1tosayitanyway.Heisthat2birdascientistwhoworksindependently3anyinstitution.Hehelpedpopularizetheideathatsomediseasesnot4thoughttohaveabacterialcausewereactuallyinfectionswhicharousedmuchcontroversywhenitwasfirstsuggested. 5hehowevermighttrembleatthe6ofwhatheisabouttodo.Togetherwithanothertwoscientistsheispublishingapaperwhichnotonly7thatonegroupofhumanityismoreintelligentthantheothersbutexplainstheprocessthathasbroughtthisabout.Thegroupin8areaparticularpeopleoriginatedfromcentralEurope.Theprocessisnaturalselection. ThisgroupgenerallydowellinIQtest912-15pointsabovethe10valueof100andhavecontributed11totheintellectualandculturallifeoftheWestasthe12oftheirelitesincludingseveralworld-renownedscientists13.Theyalsosuffermoreoftenthanmostpeoplefromanumberofnastygeneticdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.Thesefacts14havepreviouslybeenthoughtunrelated.Theformerhasbeen15tosocialeffectssuchasastrongtraditionof16education.Thelatterwasseenasaan17ofgeneticisolation.Dr.Cochransuggeststhattheintelligenceanddiseasesareintimately18.Hisargumentisthattheunusualhistoryofthesepeoplehas19themtouniqueevolutionarypressuresthathaveresultedinthis20stateofaffairs. 7
Theideathatsomegroupsofpeoplemaybemoreintelligentthanothersisoneofthosehypothesesthatdarenotspeakitsname.ButGregoryCochranis1tosayitanyway.Heisthat2birdascientistwhoworksindependently3anyinstitution.Hehelpedpopularizetheideathatsomediseasesnot4thoughttohaveabacterialcausewereactuallyinfectionswhicharousedmuchcontroversywhenitwasfirstsuggested. 5hehowevermighttrembleatthe6ofwhatheisabouttodo.Togetherwithanothertwoscientistsheispublishingapaperwhichnotonly7thatonegroupofhumanityismoreintelligentthantheothersbutexplainstheprocessthathasbroughtthisabout.Thegroupin8areaparticularpeopleoriginatedfromcentralEurope.Theprocessisnaturalselection. ThisgroupgenerallydowellinIQtest912-15pointsabovethe10valueof100andhavecontributed11totheintellectualandculturallifeoftheWestasthe12oftheirelitesincludingseveralworld-renownedscientists13.Theyalsosuffermoreoftenthanmostpeoplefromanumberofnastygeneticdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.Thesefacts14havepreviouslybeenthoughtunrelated.Theformerhasbeen15tosocialeffectssuchasastrongtraditionof16education.Thelatterwasseenasaan17ofgeneticisolation.Dr.Cochransuggeststhattheintelligenceanddiseasesareintimately18.Hisargumentisthattheunusualhistoryofthesepeoplehas19themtouniqueevolutionarypressuresthathaveresultedinthis20stateofaffairs. 17
Theideathatsomegroupsofpeoplemaybemoreintelligentthanothersisoneofthosehypothesesthatdarenotspeakitsname.ButGregoryCochranis1tosayitanyway.Heisthat2birdascientistwhoworksindependently3anyinstitution.Hehelpedpopularizetheideathatsomediseasesnot4thoughttohaveabacterialcausewereactuallyinfectionswhicharousedmuchcontroversywhenitwasfirstsuggested. 5hehowevermighttrembleatthe6ofwhatheisabouttodo.Togetherwithanothertwoscientistsheispublishingapaperwhichnotonly7thatonegroupofhumanityismoreintelligentthantheothersbutexplainstheprocessthathasbroughtthisabout.Thegroupin8areaparticularpeopleoriginatedfromcentralEurope.Theprocessisnaturalselection. ThisgroupgenerallydowellinIQtest912-15pointsabovethe10valueof100andhavecontributed11totheintellectualandculturallifeoftheWestasthe12oftheirelitesincludingseveralworld-renownedscientists13.Theyalsosuffermoreoftenthanmostpeoplefromanumberofnastygeneticdiseasessuchasbreastcancer.Thesefacts14havepreviouslybeenthoughtunrelated.Theformerhasbeen15tosocialeffectssuchasastrongtraditionof16education.Thelatterwasseenasaan17ofgeneticisolation.Dr.Cochransuggeststhattheintelligenceanddiseasesareintimately18.Hisargumentisthattheunusualhistoryofthesepeoplehas19themtouniqueevolutionarypressuresthathaveresultedinthis20stateofaffairs. 19
TheearlyretirementofexperiencedworkersisseriouslyharmingtheU.S.economyaccordingtoanewreportfromtheHudsonInstituteapublicpolicyresearchorganization.Currentlymanyolderexperiencedworkersretireatanearlyage.Accordingtotherecentlyissuedstatistics79percentofqualifiedworkersbegincollectingretirementbenefitsatage62;ifthattrendcontinuestherewillbealaborshortagethatwillhindertheeconomicgrowthinthetwenty-firstcentury. OlderAmericansconstituteanincreasingproportionofthepopulationaccordingtotheU.S.CensusBureauandthepopulationofthoseoverage65willgrowby60%between2001and2020.Duringthesameperiodthegroupaged18to44willincreasebyonly4%.KeepingolderskilledworkersemployedevenparttimewouldincreaseU.S.economicoutputandstrengthenthetaxbase;butwithoutsignificantpolicyreformsmassiveearlyretirementamongbabyboomersseemsmorelikely. Retirementatage62isaneconomicallyrationaldecisiontoday.SocialSecurityandMedicaidearningslimitsandtaxpenaltiessubjectourmostexperiencedworkerstomarginaltaxratesashighas67%.SocialSecurityformulasencourageearlyretirement.Althoughincomesusuallyrisewithadditionalyearsofworkanypayincreasesafterthe35-yearmarkresultinhighersocialSecuritytaxesbutonlysmallincreasesinbenefits. HudsonInstituteresearchersbelievethatfederaltaxandbenefitpoliciesareatfaultandreformsareurgentlyneededbuttheydisagreewiththepopularproposalthatmucholderAmericanswillhavetoworkbecauseSocialSecuritywillnotsupportthemandthatbabyboomersarenotsavingenoughforretirement.Accordingtotheincreasein401kandKeoghretirementplanstheongoingstockmarketonWallStreetandthelikelihoodoflargeinheritancesthereisevidencethatbabyboomerswillreachage65withgreaterfinancialassetsthanpreviousgenerations. TheHudsonInstituteadvocatesreforminggovernmentpoliciesthatnowdiscourageworkandsavingsespeciallyforolderworker.Amongthereport’srecommendations.TaxhalfofallSocialSecuritybenefitsregardlessofotherincome;provide80%largerbenefitsforeachyearbeyond65;andpermitworkersnearingretirementtonegotiatecompensationpackagesthatmayincludealowersalarybutwithgreaterhealthcarebenefits.Howeveritmaytakerealandfruitfulplanningtofindtherightsolutiontotheearlyretirementofolderexperiencedworkers;anymeasurestakenmustbeallowedtoprolongtheserviceabilityofolderexperiencedworkers. Thesecondparagraphiswrittenchieflytoshowthat
Childreninanysocietyareexpectedtolearntoconformtoanumberofsocialrulesandexpectationsiftheyaretobecomeparticipantsintheculture.46Amongtherulesthatchildreninoursocietyareexpectedtolearnarethatcertainclassesofadultssuchasteachersanddoctorsareaddressedbytitlesthatmalesandfemalesuseseparaterestroomfacilitiesandthatwomenbutnotmenweardresses.Theseareexamplesofsocialconventions.Intheabsenceofsuchasharednormtheactsareneitherrightnorwrong.Forthisreasonconventionsmaybesaidtobearbitrary.Forexample47wecouldjustaseasilyhavestudentsaddressteachersbyfirstnamesashavethemcallteachersbytheirlastnamesandformaltitlesofMr.orMs. Conventionshoweverserveanimportantfunctionbyprovidingpredictabilityandordertosociallife.48Withoutsocialconventionsitwouldbeimpossibletoorganizesocialinstitutionssuchasschoolsandsocietiesasorganizedsystemscouldnotexist.Thearbitrarinessofconventionsmakestheirimportancedifficultforchildrentofigureout.49Itisnotuntilsometimeinadolescencethatchildrencometofullyunderstandthefunctionthatthesearbitraryconventionsservetoprovidepredictabilityandordertooursocialinteractions. Incontrastwithissuesofconventionaremattersofmorality.Moralityreferstoissuesofhumanwelfarejusticeandrightsthatareafunctionoftheinherentfeaturesofinterpersonalrelations.Becauseofthistherightandwrongofmoralactionsarenotsimplydeterminedbysocialconsensusortheviewsofauthority.Forexampleitisnotpossibletohitanotherpersonwithforceandnothurttheotherperson.Similarlyitisnotpossibletostealsomethingvaluablefromsomeoneelseandnotcausethepersontoexperiencethesenseofloss.Amoraljudgmentaboutunprovokedharm"Itiswrongtohit"wouldnotbedependentontheexistenceofasociallyagreeduponruleorstandardbutcouldbegeneratedsolelyfromtheintrinsiceffectsoftheacti.e.hittinghurts.50Similaranalysescouldbedoneregardingabroaderrangeofissuesthatwouldextendbeyonddirectharmtoconcernsforwhatitmeanstobejustcompassionateandconsiderateoftherightsofothers. 49Itisnotuntilsometimeinadolescencethatchildrencometofullyunderstandthefunctionthatthesearbitraryconventionsservetoprovidepredictabilityandordertooursocialinteractions.
SomethingextraordinaryishappeninginLondonthisweek:inLambethoneofthecity’spoorestboroughs区180childrenarestartingtheirsecondaryeducationinabrandnewschool.Thestate-fundedschoolwassetupbyparentswhowerefedupwiththequalityoflocaleducation.Incountrieswithmoreenlightenededucationsystemsthiswouldbeunremarkable.InBritainitisanamazingachievementbyabunchofdesperateanddeterminedpeopleafteryearsofstruggle. Britain’sschoolsareinamess.Averagestandardsarenotimprovingdespitebillionsinextraspendingandastubbornlylongtailofunderachieversstraggles拖后腿behind.Acoupleofyearsagoaconsensusemergedamongreformersthatcouncilshadtoomuchcontrolandparentstoolittle. OnemighthaveexpectedmorefromtheConservativeswhostoodforelectiononapledgetobringinschoolvouchers.YettheTorypolicygroupchargedwiththinkingdeepthoughtsaboutpublicservicespaidonlylipservicetoparentpowerinitsreport.Whereschoolsarefailingitsaidparentsorcharitiesshouldgettaxpayers’moneytoopennewones.Butonly2.9%areactuallyfailingonofficialdefinitions.Andanotherproposalthatchildreninfailingschoolsgetextrafundingiftheygoelsewherewassolackingindetailastobemeaningless. WorryaboutunderperformingschoolsishardlyconfinedtoBritain:inAmericainItalyinGermanyeveninonce-proudFranceeducationisahot-buttontopic.Yetanumberofcountriesseemtohavecrackedit.Althoughspecificproblemsdifferindifferentsocietiesparentalchoiceisattheheartofmostsuccessfulsolutions.Whatarethelessons Thefirstisthatifacriticalmassofparentswantsanewschoolandthereisawillingproviderlocalgovernmentshouldberequiredtofinanceitasgenerouslyasitdoesexistingstateschools.Thesecondisthatifacharitywantstoopenaschoolinthehopethatchildrenwillcomethentaxpayers’moneyshouldfollowanythatdo.Thirdrulesaboutwhatwhereandhowschoolsteachshouldberelaxedtoavoidstiflinginnovationanddiscouragingnewcomerswithbigideas.Inanyeventpublic-examinationresultswouldgiveparentstheinformationtheyneededtoenforcehighstandards. TheseproposalsmayseemradicalyetparentsintheNetherlandshavehadtherighttodemandnewschoolssince1917andthoseinSwedenhavebeenfreesince1992totaketheirgovernmentmoneytoanyschoolthatsatisfiesbasicgovernmentrules.IntheNetherlands70%ofchildrenareeducatedinprivateschoolsatthetaxpayers’expense;inSweden10%alreadyare.InbothcountriesstatespendingoneducationislowerperheadthaninBritainandresultsarebetter.Itdoesn’ttakeageniusIQ--justalittlepoliticalcourage--todrawthecorrectconclusion. Fromothercountries’successfulexperienceBritaincanlearnthat
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