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Therewillbeasteadytrendtowardvegetarianism.Agivenquantityofgroundcanprovideplantfoodformanoritcanprovideplantfoodforanimalswhicharelaterkilledformeat. Inconvertingthetissuesoffoodintothetissuesofthefeederupto90percentisusedforreasonsotherthantissuemaintenanceandgrowth.Thismeansthatonehundredpoundsofplantfoodwillsupporttenpoundsofhumantissue―whileonehundredpoundsofplantfoodwillsupporttenpoundsofanimaltissuewhichwillthensupportonepoundofhumantissue.Inotherwordslanddevotedtoplantfoodwillsupporttentimesasmanyhumanbeingsaslanddevotedtoanimalfood. Itisthisfarmorethanfoodpreferencesorreligiousdirectionsthatforcesovercrowdedpopulationsintovegetarianism.AnditwillbethedirectioninwhichtheUnitedStatesof2001willbemoving―notbypresidentialorderbutthroughtheforceofasteadyriseinmeatpricesascomparedwithotherkindsoffood. Thisinturnwillcomeaboutbecauseourherdswilldecreaseasthefooddemandcausesmoreandmoremeadowtobeturnedtofarmlandandaslandproducingcornandotheranimalfoodisconvertedtoprovidingfooddirectlyforman. Anotherpointisthatitisnotonlyenergythatisinshortsupply.Ashortageofoilmeansashortageofplastics;ashortageofelectricitymeansashortageofaluminium.Wearealsoexperiencingashortageofpaperandmostotherrawmaterials. Thismeansthatforonethingourgenerosityinwrappingbaggingandpackagingwillhavetorecede.Therewillhavetobeatleastapartialreturninsupermarketstotheolddayswheregoodsweresuppliedinbulkandgivenoutinbagstoorder.Itmayevenbecomenecessarytoreturnbagsasweoncereturnedbottlesorpayfornewones. Adeclineinper-capitaenergyusewillmakeitnecessarytoresorttohumanmuscleagainsothatthedeliverymanwillmakeacomebackhispriceaddedtothatofthefoodofcourse.Sinceenergyshortageswillcauseunemploymentinmanysectorsoftheeconomytherewillbeidlehandstodothemanualworkthatwillbecomenecessary. Fromanenergy-savingstandpointitwouldmakefarmoresensetoorderbyphoneandhaveasingletruckdeliverfoodtomanyhomesthanforamemberofeachhometodriveanautomobileround-triptopickupaone-familyfoodsupply. Tobesureitwillnotallberetrogression.EvenassumingthatEarthisinadesperatebattleofsurvivalthroughacrisisofstillrisingpopulationanddwindlingenergyreservesthereshouldstillcontinuetobetechnologicaladvancesinthosedirectionsthatdon’’tdependonwastefulbulkuseofenergy.Therewillbecontinuingadvancesinthedirectionofsophisticationinotherwords. Theshortageofenergywillresultin
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Wesometimeshearthatessaysareanold-fashionedform.thatso-and-soisthelastessayistbutthefactsofthemarketplacearguequiteotherwise.Essaysofnearlyanykindaresomucheasierthanshortstoriesforawritertosellsomanymoreseeprintit’’sstrangethatthoughtwofineanthologiescollectionsremainthatpublishtheyear’’sbeststoriesnocomparablecollectionexistsforessays.Suchchangesinthereadingpublic’’stastearen’’talwaystothegoodneedlesstosay.Theartoftellingstoriespredatedevencavepaintingsurely;andifweeverfindourselveslivingincavesagainitwithpaintinganddrummingwillbetheonlyartleftaftermoviesnovelsphotographyessaysbiographyandalltheresthavegonedownthedrain―thearttobuildfrom. Essayshoweverhangsomewhereonalinebetweentwosturdypoles:thisiswhatIthinkandthisiswhatIam.Autobiographieswhicharen’’tnovelsaregenerallyextendedessaysindeed.Apersonalessayislikethehumanvoicetalkingitsorderbeingthemind’’snaturalflowinsteadofasystematizedoutlineofideas.Thoughmorechangeableorinformalthananarticleortreatisesomewhereitcontainsapointwhichisitsrealcenterevenifthepointcouldn’’tbeutteredinfewerwordsthantheessayisthasused.Essaysdon’’tusuallyboildowntoasummaryasarticlesdoandthestyleofthewriterhasanaptoitacombinationofpersonalityandoriginalityandenergeticlooseendsthatstanduplikethenap绒毛onapieceofwoolandcan’’tbebrushedflat.Essaysbelongtotheanimalkingdomwithasurfacethatgeneratessparkslikeacoatoffurcomparedwiththeflatconventionalcottonofthemagazinearticlewriterwhoworksinthevegetablekingdominstead.Butessaysontheotherhandmayhavefewerlevelsthanfictionbecausewearenotsupposedtoarguemuchabouttheirmeaning.Intheolddistinctionbetweenteachingandstorytellingtheessayisthowevercleverlyhetriestoconcealhisintentionsisabitofateacherorreformerandanessayisintendedtoconveythesamepointtoeachofus. Anessayistdoesn’’thavetotellthewholetruthandnothingbutthetruth;hecanshapeorshavehismemoriesaslongasthepurposeisservedofexplainingatruthfulpoint.Apersonalessayfrequentlyisnotautobiographicalataltbutwhatitdoeskeepincommonwithautobiographyisthatthroughitstoneandtumblingprogressionitconveysthequalityoftheauthor’’smind.Nothinggetsintheway.Becauseessaysaredirectlyconcernedwiththemindandthemind’’speculiaritytheveryfreedomthemindpossessesisconferredonthisbranchofliteraturethatdoeshonortoitandthefascinationofthemindisthefascinationoftheessay. TheauthorsuggeststhatiftheStoneAgeshouldcomeupagain
TwomonthsagoyougotajobasaneditorforthemagazineDesigns&Fashions.Butnowyoufindthattheworkisnotwhatyouexpected.Youdecidetoquit.WritealettertoyourbossMr.Wangtellinghimyourdecisionstatingyourreasonsandmakinganapology.Writeyourletterwithnolessthan100words.WriteitneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter;useLiMinginstead.Youdonotneedtowritetheaddress.10points
ItisnoteasytotalkabouttheroleofthemassmediainthisoverwhelminglysignificantphaseinEuropeanhistory.Historyandnewsbecomeconfusedandone’’simpressionstendtobeamixtureofskepticismandoptimism.46Televisionisoneofthemeansbywhichthesefeelingsarecreatedandconveyed--andperhapsneverbeforehasitservedsomuchtoconnectdifferentpeoplesandnationsasintherecenteventsinEurope.TheEuropethatisnowformingcannotbeanythingotherthanitspeoplestheirculturesandnationalidentifies.WiththisinmindwecanbegintoanalyzetheEuropeantelevisionscene.47InEurope.aselsewheremulti-mediagroupshavebeenincreasinglysuccessful:groupswhichbringtogethertelevisionradionewspapersmagazinesandpublishinghousesthatworkinrelationtooneanother.OneItalianexamplewouldbetheBerlusconigroupwhileabroadMaxwellandMurdochcometomind. Clearlyonlythebiggestandmostflexibletelevisioncompaniesaregoingtobeabletocompeteinsucharichandhotly-contestedmarket.48Thisalonedemonstratesthatthetelevisionbusinessisnotaneasyworldtosurvivein.afactunderlinedbystatisticsthatshowthatoutofeightyEuropeantelevisionnetworksnolessthan50%tookalossin1989. MoreovertheintegrationoftheEuropeancommunitywillobligetelevisioncompaniestocooperatemorecloselyintermsofbothproductionanddistribution. 49CreatingaEuropeanidentitythatrespectsthedifferentculturesandtraditionswhichgotomakeuptheconnectingfabricoftheOldContinentisnoeasytaskanddemandsastrategicchoice―thatofproducingprogramsinEuropeforEurope.ThisentailsreducingourdependenceontheNorthAmericanmarketwhoseprogramsrelatetoexperiencesandculturaltraditionswhicharedifferentfromourown Inordertoachievetheseobjectiveswemustconcentratemoreonco-productionstheexchangeofnewsdocumentaryservicesandtraining.ThisalsoinvolvestheagreementsbetweenEuropeancountriesforthecreationofaEuropeanbankforTelevisionProductionwhichonthemodeloftheEuropeanInvestmentsBankwillhandlethefinancesnecessaryforproductioncosts.50Indealingwithachallengeonsuchascaleitisnoexaggerationtosay.Unitedwestanddividedwefall―andifIhadtochooseasloganitwouldbeUnityinourdiversityAunityofobjectivesthatnonethelessrespectthevariedpeculiaritiesofeachcountry.
Wesometimeshearthatessaysareanold-fashionedform.thatso-and-soisthelastessayistbutthefactsofthemarketplacearguequiteotherwise.Essaysofnearlyanykindaresomucheasierthanshortstoriesforawritertosellsomanymoreseeprintit’’sstrangethatthoughtwofineanthologiescollectionsremainthatpublishtheyear’’sbeststoriesnocomparablecollectionexistsforessays.Suchchangesinthereadingpublic’’stastearen’’talwaystothegoodneedlesstosay.Theartoftellingstoriespredatedevencavepaintingsurely;andifweeverfindourselveslivingincavesagainitwithpaintinganddrummingwillbetheonlyartleftaftermoviesnovelsphotographyessaysbiographyandalltheresthavegonedownthedrain―thearttobuildfrom. Essayshoweverhangsomewhereonalinebetweentwosturdypoles:thisiswhatIthinkandthisiswhatIam.Autobiographieswhicharen’’tnovelsaregenerallyextendedessaysindeed.Apersonalessayislikethehumanvoicetalkingitsorderbeingthemind’’snaturalflowinsteadofasystematizedoutlineofideas.Thoughmorechangeableorinformalthananarticleortreatisesomewhereitcontainsapointwhichisitsrealcenterevenifthepointcouldn’’tbeutteredinfewerwordsthantheessayisthasused.Essaysdon’’tusuallyboildowntoasummaryasarticlesdoandthestyleofthewriterhasanaptoitacombinationofpersonalityandoriginalityandenergeticlooseendsthatstanduplikethenap绒毛onapieceofwoolandcan’’tbebrushedflat.Essaysbelongtotheanimalkingdomwithasurfacethatgeneratessparkslikeacoatoffurcomparedwiththeflatconventionalcottonofthemagazinearticlewriterwhoworksinthevegetablekingdominstead.Butessaysontheotherhandmayhavefewerlevelsthanfictionbecausewearenotsupposedtoarguemuchabouttheirmeaning.Intheolddistinctionbetweenteachingandstorytellingtheessayisthowevercleverlyhetriestoconcealhisintentionsisabitofateacherorreformerandanessayisintendedtoconveythesamepointtoeachofus. Anessayistdoesn’’thavetotellthewholetruthandnothingbutthetruth;hecanshapeorshavehismemoriesaslongasthepurposeisservedofexplainingatruthfulpoint.Apersonalessayfrequentlyisnotautobiographicalataltbutwhatitdoeskeepincommonwithautobiographyisthatthroughitstoneandtumblingprogressionitconveysthequalityoftheauthor’’smind.Nothinggetsintheway.Becauseessaysaredirectlyconcernedwiththemindandthemind’’speculiaritytheveryfreedomthemindpossessesisconferredonthisbranchofliteraturethatdoeshonortoitandthefascinationofthemindisthefascinationoftheessay. EssaysarecharacterizedbyallofthefollowingEXCEPT
ItisnoteasytotalkabouttheroleofthemassmediainthisoverwhelminglysignificantphaseinEuropeanhistory.Historyandnewsbecomeconfusedandone’’simpressionstendtobeamixtureofskepticismandoptimism.46Televisionisoneofthemeansbywhichthesefeelingsarecreatedandconveyed--andperhapsneverbeforehasitservedsomuchtoconnectdifferentpeoplesandnationsasintherecenteventsinEurope.TheEuropethatisnowformingcannotbeanythingotherthanitspeoplestheirculturesandnationalidentifies.WiththisinmindwecanbegintoanalyzetheEuropeantelevisionscene.47InEurope.aselsewheremulti-mediagroupshavebeenincreasinglysuccessful:groupswhichbringtogethertelevisionradionewspapersmagazinesandpublishinghousesthatworkinrelationtooneanother.OneItalianexamplewouldbetheBerlusconigroupwhileabroadMaxwellandMurdochcometomind. Clearlyonlythebiggestandmostflexibletelevisioncompaniesaregoingtobeabletocompeteinsucharichandhotly-contestedmarket.48Thisalonedemonstratesthatthetelevisionbusinessisnotaneasyworldtosurvivein.afactunderlinedbystatisticsthatshowthatoutofeightyEuropeantelevisionnetworksnolessthan50%tookalossin1989. MoreovertheintegrationoftheEuropeancommunitywillobligetelevisioncompaniestocooperatemorecloselyintermsofbothproductionanddistribution. 49CreatingaEuropeanidentitythatrespectsthedifferentculturesandtraditionswhichgotomakeuptheconnectingfabricoftheOldContinentisnoeasytaskanddemandsastrategicchoice―thatofproducingprogramsinEuropeforEurope.ThisentailsreducingourdependenceontheNorthAmericanmarketwhoseprogramsrelatetoexperiencesandculturaltraditionswhicharedifferentfromourown Inordertoachievetheseobjectiveswemustconcentratemoreonco-productionstheexchangeofnewsdocumentaryservicesandtraining.ThisalsoinvolvestheagreementsbetweenEuropeancountriesforthecreationofaEuropeanbankforTelevisionProductionwhichonthemodeloftheEuropeanInvestmentsBankwillhandlethefinancesnecessaryforproductioncosts.50Indealingwithachallengeonsuchascaleitisnoexaggerationtosay.Unitedwestanddividedwefall―andifIhadtochooseasloganitwouldbeUnityinourdiversityAunityofobjectivesthatnonethelessrespectthevariedpeculiaritiesofeachcountry.
Scienceisanenterpriseconcernedwithgaininginformationaboutcausalityortherelationshipbetweencauseandeffect.Asimpleexampleofacauseisthemovementofapaddleasitstrikesaping-pongball;theeffectisthemovementoftheballthroughtheair.Inpsychologyandothersciencesthewordcauseisoftenreplacedbythetermindependentvariable.Thistermimpliesthattheexperimenterisoftenfreetovarytheindependentvariableasheorshedesiresforexampletheexperimentercancontrolthespeedofthepaddleasitstrikestheball.Thetermdependentvariablereplacesthewordeffectandthistermisusedbecausetheeffectdependsonsomecharacteristicoftheindependentvariabletheflightoftheballdependsonthespeedofthepaddle.Theconventionsofsciencedemandthatboththeindependentanddependentvariablesbeobservableeventsasisthecaseintheping-pongexample.Inthecaseofbiorhythmtheorytheindependentvariableisthenumberofdaysthathaveelapsedbetweenaperson’’sdateofbirthandsometestday.Thedependentvariableistheperson’’slevelofperformanceonsomespecifiedtaskonthetestday.Noticethatalthoughtheexperimenterisnotfreetochooseabirthdayforagivenindividualpersonswithdifferentdatesofbirthcanbetestedonthesamedayorasinglesubjectcanbetestedonseveraldifferentdays. Inordertopredicttherelationshipbetweenindependentanddependentvariablesmanyscientifictheoriesmakeuseofwhatarecalledinterveningvariables.Interveningvariablesarepurelytheoreticalconceptsthatcannotbeobserveddirectly.Topredicttheflightofaping-pongballNewtonianphysicsreliesonanumberofinterveningvariablesincludingforcemassairresistanceandgravity.Youcanprobablyanticipatethattheinterveningvariablesofbiorhythmtheoryarethethreebodilycycleswiththeirspecifiedtimeperiods.Itshouldbeemphasizedthatnotallpsychologicaltheoriesincludeinterveningvariablesandsomepsychologistsobjecttotheirusepreciselybecausetheyarenotdirectlyobservable. Thefinalmajorcomponentofascientifictheoryisitssyntaxortherulesanddefinitionsthatstatehowtheindependentanddependentvariablesaretobemeasuredandthatspecifytherelationshipsamongindependentvariablesinterveningvariablesanddependentvariables.Itisthesyntaxofbiorhythmtheorythatdescribeshowtouseaperson’’sbirthdaytocalculatethecurrentstatusofthethreecycles.Thesyntaxalsorelatesthecyclestothedependentvariableperformancebystatingthatpositivecyclesshouldcausehighlevelsofperformancewhereasloworcriticalcyclesshouldcauselowperformancelevels.Tosummarizethecomponentsofascientifictheorycanbedividedintofourmajorcategories:independentvariablesdependentvariablesinterveningvariablesandsyntax. Theexampleoftheping-pongballisusedto
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Scienceisanenterpriseconcernedwithgaininginformationaboutcausalityortherelationshipbetweencauseandeffect.Asimpleexampleofacauseisthemovementofapaddleasitstrikesaping-pongball;theeffectisthemovementoftheballthroughtheair.Inpsychologyandothersciencesthewordcauseisoftenreplacedbythetermindependentvariable.Thistermimpliesthattheexperimenterisoftenfreetovarytheindependentvariableasheorshedesiresforexampletheexperimentercancontrolthespeedofthepaddleasitstrikestheball.Thetermdependentvariablereplacesthewordeffectandthistermisusedbecausetheeffectdependsonsomecharacteristicoftheindependentvariabletheflightoftheballdependsonthespeedofthepaddle.Theconventionsofsciencedemandthatboththeindependentanddependentvariablesbeobservableeventsasisthecaseintheping-pongexample.Inthecaseofbiorhythmtheorytheindependentvariableisthenumberofdaysthathaveelapsedbetweenaperson’’sdateofbirthandsometestday.Thedependentvariableistheperson’’slevelofperformanceonsomespecifiedtaskonthetestday.Noticethatalthoughtheexperimenterisnotfreetochooseabirthdayforagivenindividualpersonswithdifferentdatesofbirthcanbetestedonthesamedayorasinglesubjectcanbetestedonseveraldifferentdays. Inordertopredicttherelationshipbetweenindependentanddependentvariablesmanyscientifictheoriesmakeuseofwhatarecalledinterveningvariables.Interveningvariablesarepurelytheoreticalconceptsthatcannotbeobserveddirectly.Topredicttheflightofaping-pongballNewtonianphysicsreliesonanumberofinterveningvariablesincludingforcemassairresistanceandgravity.Youcanprobablyanticipatethattheinterveningvariablesofbiorhythmtheoryarethethreebodilycycleswiththeirspecifiedtimeperiods.Itshouldbeemphasizedthatnotallpsychologicaltheoriesincludeinterveningvariablesandsomepsychologistsobjecttotheirusepreciselybecausetheyarenotdirectlyobservable. Thefinalmajorcomponentofascientifictheoryisitssyntaxortherulesanddefinitionsthatstatehowtheindependentanddependentvariablesaretobemeasuredandthatspecifytherelationshipsamongindependentvariablesinterveningvariablesanddependentvariables.Itisthesyntaxofbiorhythmtheorythatdescribeshowtouseaperson’’sbirthdaytocalculatethecurrentstatusofthethreecycles.Thesyntaxalsorelatesthecyclestothedependentvariableperformancebystatingthatpositivecyclesshouldcausehighlevelsofperformancewhereasloworcriticalcyclesshouldcauselowperformancelevels.Tosummarizethecomponentsofascientifictheorycanbedividedintofourmajorcategories:independentvariablesdependentvariablesinterveningvariablesandsyntax. Basedonthetextcausalitymayhavethemeaningthat
Inthelasthalfofthenineteenthcenturycapitalandlabourwereenlargingandperfectingtheirrivalorganizationsonmodemlines.Manyanoldfirmwasreplacedbyalimitedliabilitycompanywithabureaucracyofsalariedmanagers.Thechangemetthetechnicalrequirementsofthenewagebyengagingalargeprofessionalelementandpreventedthedeclineinefficiencythatsocommonlyspoiledthefortunesoffamilyfirmsinthesecondandthirdgenerationaftertheenergeticfounders.Itwasmoreoverastepawayfromindividualinitiativetowardscollectivismandmunicipalandstate-ownedbusiness.Therailwaycompaniesthoughstillprivatebusinessmanagedforthebenefitofshareholderswereveryunlikeoldfamilybusiness.Atthesametimethegreatmunicipalitieswentintobusinesstosupplylightingtramsandotherservicestothetaxpayers. Thegrowthofthelimitedliabilitycompanyandmunicipalbusinesshadimportantconsequences.Suchlargeimpersonalmanipulationofcapitalandindustrygreatlyincreasedthenumbersandimportanceofshareholdersasaclassanelementinnationalliferepresentingirresponsiblewealthdetachedfromthelandandthedutiesofthelandowners;andalmostequallydetachedfromtheresponsiblemanagementofbusiness.AllthroughthenineteenthcenturyAmericaAfricaIndiaAustraliaandpartsofEuropewerebeingdevelopedbyBritishcapitalandBritishshareholderswerethusenrichedbytheworld’’smovementtowardsindustrialisation.TownslikeBournemouthandEastbournespranguptohouselargecomfortableclasseswhohadretiredontheirincomesandwhohadnorelationtotherestofthecommunityexceptthatofdrawingdividendsandoccasionallyattendingashareholders’’meetingtodictatetheirorderstothemanagement.OntheotherhandshareholdingmeantleisureandfreedomwhichwasusedbymanyofthelaterVictoriansforthehighestpurposeofagreatcivilization. Theshareholdersassuchhadnoknowledgeofthelivesthoughtsorneedsoftheworkmenemployedbythecompanyinwhichheheldsharesandhisinfluenceontherelationsofcapitalandlabourwasnotgood.Thepaidmanageractingforthecompanywasinmoredirectrelationwiththemenandtheirdemandsbutevenhehadseldomthatfamiliarpersonalknowledgeoftheworkmenwhichtheemployerhadoftenhadunderthemorepatriarchalsystemoftheoldfamilybusinessnowpassingaway.Indeedthemeresizeofoperationsandthenumbersofworkmeninvolvedrenderedsuchpersonalrelationsimpossible.Fortunatelyhowevertheincreasingpowerandorganizationofthetradeunionsatleastinallskilledtradesenabledtheworkmentomeetonequaltermsthemanagersofthecompanieswhoemployedthem.Thecrueldisciplineofthestrikeandlockouttaughtthetwopartiestorespecteachother’’sstrengthandunderstandthevalueoffairnegotiation. Thegrowthoflimitedliabilitycompaniesresultedin_________________.
Therehasbeenadiscussionrecentlyontheissueinanewspaper.Writeanessaytothenewspaperto 1showyourunderstandingofthesymbolicmeaningofthepicturebelow 2giveaspecificexampleand 3giveyoursuggestionastothebestwaytoshowlove. Youshouldwriteabout200wordsonANSWERSHEET2.
Inthelasthalfofthenineteenthcenturycapitalandlabourwereenlargingandperfectingtheirrivalorganizationsonmodemlines.Manyanoldfirmwasreplacedbyalimitedliabilitycompanywithabureaucracyofsalariedmanagers.Thechangemetthetechnicalrequirementsofthenewagebyengagingalargeprofessionalelementandpreventedthedeclineinefficiencythatsocommonlyspoiledthefortunesoffamilyfirmsinthesecondandthirdgenerationaftertheenergeticfounders.Itwasmoreoverastepawayfromindividualinitiativetowardscollectivismandmunicipalandstate-ownedbusiness.Therailwaycompaniesthoughstillprivatebusinessmanagedforthebenefitofshareholderswereveryunlikeoldfamilybusiness.Atthesametimethegreatmunicipalitieswentintobusinesstosupplylightingtramsandotherservicestothetaxpayers. Thegrowthofthelimitedliabilitycompanyandmunicipalbusinesshadimportantconsequences.Suchlargeimpersonalmanipulationofcapitalandindustrygreatlyincreasedthenumbersandimportanceofshareholdersasaclassanelementinnationalliferepresentingirresponsiblewealthdetachedfromthelandandthedutiesofthelandowners;andalmostequallydetachedfromtheresponsiblemanagementofbusiness.AllthroughthenineteenthcenturyAmericaAfricaIndiaAustraliaandpartsofEuropewerebeingdevelopedbyBritishcapitalandBritishshareholderswerethusenrichedbytheworld’’smovementtowardsindustrialisation.TownslikeBournemouthandEastbournespranguptohouselargecomfortableclasseswhohadretiredontheirincomesandwhohadnorelationtotherestofthecommunityexceptthatofdrawingdividendsandoccasionallyattendingashareholders’’meetingtodictatetheirorderstothemanagement.OntheotherhandshareholdingmeantleisureandfreedomwhichwasusedbymanyofthelaterVictoriansforthehighestpurposeofagreatcivilization. Theshareholdersassuchhadnoknowledgeofthelivesthoughtsorneedsoftheworkmenemployedbythecompanyinwhichheheldsharesandhisinfluenceontherelationsofcapitalandlabourwasnotgood.Thepaidmanageractingforthecompanywasinmoredirectrelationwiththemenandtheirdemandsbutevenhehadseldomthatfamiliarpersonalknowledgeoftheworkmenwhichtheemployerhadoftenhadunderthemorepatriarchalsystemoftheoldfamilybusinessnowpassingaway.Indeedthemeresizeofoperationsandthenumbersofworkmeninvolvedrenderedsuchpersonalrelationsimpossible.Fortunatelyhowevertheincreasingpowerandorganizationofthetradeunionsatleastinallskilledtradesenabledtheworkmentomeetonequaltermsthemanagersofthecompanieswhoemployedthem.Thecrueldisciplineofthestrikeandlockouttaughtthetwopartiestorespecteachother’’sstrengthandunderstandthevalueoffairnegotiation. Theauthorismostcriticalof_________________.
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Therewillbeasteadytrendtowardvegetarianism.Agivenquantityofgroundcanprovideplantfoodformanoritcanprovideplantfoodforanimalswhicharelaterkilledformeat. Inconvertingthetissuesoffoodintothetissuesofthefeederupto90percentisusedforreasonsotherthantissuemaintenanceandgrowth.Thismeansthatonehundredpoundsofplantfoodwillsupporttenpoundsofhumantissue―whileonehundredpoundsofplantfoodwillsupporttenpoundsofanimaltissuewhichwillthensupportonepoundofhumantissue.Inotherwordslanddevotedtoplantfoodwillsupporttentimesasmanyhumanbeingsaslanddevotedtoanimalfood. Itisthisfarmorethanfoodpreferencesorreligiousdirectionsthatforcesovercrowdedpopulationsintovegetarianism.AnditwillbethedirectioninwhichtheUnitedStatesof2001willbemoving―notbypresidentialorderbutthroughtheforceofasteadyriseinmeatpricesascomparedwithotherkindsoffood. Thisinturnwillcomeaboutbecauseourherdswilldecreaseasthefooddemandcausesmoreandmoremeadowtobeturnedtofarmlandandaslandproducingcornandotheranimalfoodisconvertedtoprovidingfooddirectlyforman. Anotherpointisthatitisnotonlyenergythatisinshortsupply.Ashortageofoilmeansashortageofplastics;ashortageofelectricitymeansashortageofaluminium.Wearealsoexperiencingashortageofpaperandmostotherrawmaterials. Thismeansthatforonethingourgenerosityinwrappingbaggingandpackagingwillhavetorecede.Therewillhavetobeatleastapartialreturninsupermarketstotheolddayswheregoodsweresuppliedinbulkandgivenoutinbagstoorder.Itmayevenbecomenecessarytoreturnbagsasweoncereturnedbottlesorpayfornewones. Adeclineinper-capitaenergyusewillmakeitnecessarytoresorttohumanmuscleagainsothatthedeliverymanwillmakeacomebackhispriceaddedtothatofthefoodofcourse.Sinceenergyshortageswillcauseunemploymentinmanysectorsoftheeconomytherewillbeidlehandstodothemanualworkthatwillbecomenecessary. Fromanenergy-savingstandpointitwouldmakefarmoresensetoorderbyphoneandhaveasingletruckdeliverfoodtomanyhomesthanforamemberofeachhometodriveanautomobileround-triptopickupaone-familyfoodsupply. Tobesureitwillnotallberetrogression.EvenassumingthatEarthisinadesperatebattleofsurvivalthroughacrisisofstillrisingpopulationanddwindlingenergyreservesthereshouldstillcontinuetobetechnologicaladvancesinthosedirectionsthatdon’’tdependonwastefulbulkuseofenergy.Therewillbecontinuingadvancesinthedirectionofsophisticationinotherwords. Accordingtotheauthordeficiencyoffoodinevitablyleadsto
Scienceisanenterpriseconcernedwithgaininginformationaboutcausalityortherelationshipbetweencauseandeffect.Asimpleexampleofacauseisthemovementofapaddleasitstrikesaping-pongball;theeffectisthemovementoftheballthroughtheair.Inpsychologyandothersciencesthewordcauseisoftenreplacedbythetermindependentvariable.Thistermimpliesthattheexperimenterisoftenfreetovarytheindependentvariableasheorshedesiresforexampletheexperimentercancontrolthespeedofthepaddleasitstrikestheball.Thetermdependentvariablereplacesthewordeffectandthistermisusedbecausetheeffectdependsonsomecharacteristicoftheindependentvariabletheflightoftheballdependsonthespeedofthepaddle.Theconventionsofsciencedemandthatboththeindependentanddependentvariablesbeobservableeventsasisthecaseintheping-pongexample.Inthecaseofbiorhythmtheorytheindependentvariableisthenumberofdaysthathaveelapsedbetweenaperson’’sdateofbirthandsometestday.Thedependentvariableistheperson’’slevelofperformanceonsomespecifiedtaskonthetestday.Noticethatalthoughtheexperimenterisnotfreetochooseabirthdayforagivenindividualpersonswithdifferentdatesofbirthcanbetestedonthesamedayorasinglesubjectcanbetestedonseveraldifferentdays. Inordertopredicttherelationshipbetweenindependentanddependentvariablesmanyscientifictheoriesmakeuseofwhatarecalledinterveningvariables.Interveningvariablesarepurelytheoreticalconceptsthatcannotbeobserveddirectly.Topredicttheflightofaping-pongballNewtonianphysicsreliesonanumberofinterveningvariablesincludingforcemassairresistanceandgravity.Youcanprobablyanticipatethattheinterveningvariablesofbiorhythmtheoryarethethreebodilycycleswiththeirspecifiedtimeperiods.Itshouldbeemphasizedthatnotallpsychologicaltheoriesincludeinterveningvariablesandsomepsychologistsobjecttotheirusepreciselybecausetheyarenotdirectlyobservable. Thefinalmajorcomponentofascientifictheoryisitssyntaxortherulesanddefinitionsthatstatehowtheindependentanddependentvariablesaretobemeasuredandthatspecifytherelationshipsamongindependentvariablesinterveningvariablesanddependentvariables.Itisthesyntaxofbiorhythmtheorythatdescribeshowtouseaperson’’sbirthdaytocalculatethecurrentstatusofthethreecycles.Thesyntaxalsorelatesthecyclestothedependentvariableperformancebystatingthatpositivecyclesshouldcausehighlevelsofperformancewhereasloworcriticalcyclesshouldcauselowperformancelevels.Tosummarizethecomponentsofascientifictheorycanbedividedintofourmajorcategories:independentvariablesdependentvariablesinterveningvariablesandsyntax. Thewordsyntaxusedinthelastparagraphreferstothe
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
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