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在气机失调中，将气的上升太过或下降不及称为
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气机失调中气降太过上升不及者称_________气的内外出入受阻称________
气机失调中气上升太过者称气的外出受阻称
气逆的病机主要是
气的流通不畅，局部郁滞不通
气上升太过，或下降不及
气上升不及，或下降太过
气不内守，大量向外亡失
先天禀赋不足，或后天失养
上升太过或下降不及是指
气滞
气逆
气陷
气闭
气脱
气的上升太过或下降不及为
气滞
气逆
气陷
气脱
气闭
气脱的病机主要是
气的流通不畅，局部郁滞不通
气上升太过，或下降不及
气上升不及，或下降太过
气不内守，大量向外亡失
先天禀赋不足，或后天失养
气的上升太过下降不及引起病理变化为
气虚
气滞
气逆
气闭
气脱
气的上升太过或者下行不及称为
气结
气闭
气机不畅
气逆
气虚
气的上升不及而下降太过称为
气滞
气逆
气陷
气脱
气的上升不及或下降太过时称为
气陷
气滞
气上
气结
气闭
气的上升不及或下降太过为
气滞
气逆
气陷
气脱
气闭
气机失调中气的下降太过上升不及称外出太过称
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1describethedrawing 2interpretitsmeaningand 3supportyourviewwithexamples. Youshouldwriteabout200wordsneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.20points
TowhatextentaretheunemployedfailingintheirdutytosocietytoworkandhowfarhastheStateanobligationtoensurethattheyhaveworktodo Itisbynowincreasinglyrecognizedthatworkersmaybethrownoutofworkbyindustrialforcesbeyondtheircontrolandthattheunemployedareinsomesensepayingthepriceoftheeconomicprogressoftherestofthecommunity.Butconcernwithunemploymentandtheunemployedvariessharply.Theissuesofdutyandresponsibilitywerereopenedandrevitalizedbytheunemploymentscareof1971-2.RisingunemploymentandincreasedsumspaidoutinbenefitstotheworklesshadreawakenedcontroversieswhichhadbeeninactiveduringmostoftheperiodoffulleremploymentsincethewarendedtheDepression.Itlookedasthoughinfuturetherewouldagainbetoolittleworktogoroundsotherewereargumentsabouthowtoproducemoreworkhowtheavailableworkshouldbesharedoutandwhowasresponsibleforunemploymentandtheunemployed. In1972therewerecriticswhosaidthattheState’’sactioninallowingunemploymenttorisewasafaithlessactabreakingofthesocialcontractbetweensocietyandtheworker.Yetinthemainanycontributionbyemployerstounemployment―suchaslayingoffworkersinordertointroducetechnologicalchangesandmaximizeprofits―tendedtobeignored.Anditwastheunemployedwhowereaccusedoffailingtohonourthesocialcontractbynotfulfillingtheirdutytosocietytowork.Inspiteofgeneralconcernatthescaleoftheunemploymentstatisticswhentheunemployedwereconsideredasindividualstheytendedtoattractscornandthreatsofpunishment.Theircapacitiesandmotivationasworkersandtheirvalueasmembersofsocietybecamesuspect.OfallthemythsoftheWelfareStatestoriesofthework-shyandborrowershavebeentheleastwell-foundedonevidenceyettheyhaveprovedthemostpersistent.TheunemployedwereaccusedofbeingresponsiblefortheirownworklessconditionanddoubtswereexpressedabouttheState’’sobligationeithertoprovidethemwiththesecurityofworkortosupportthemthroughSocialSecurity. Underlyingtheargumentsaboutunemploymentandtheunemployedisabasicdisagreementaboutthenatureandmeaningofworkinsociety.TowhatextentcanorshouldworkberegardedasaservicenotonlyperformedbytheworkerforsocietybutalsomadesecurefortheworkerbytheStateandsupportedifnecessaryAndapartfromcasharetheresocialpressuresandsatisfactionswhichcauseindividualstoseekandkeepwork.sothattheworklessneedworkratherthanjustcash Accordingtotheauthorinthe1971-2crisis
TowhatextentaretheunemployedfailingintheirdutytosocietytoworkandhowfarhastheStateanobligationtoensurethattheyhaveworktodo Itisbynowincreasinglyrecognizedthatworkersmaybethrownoutofworkbyindustrialforcesbeyondtheircontrolandthattheunemployedareinsomesensepayingthepriceoftheeconomicprogressoftherestofthecommunity.Butconcernwithunemploymentandtheunemployedvariessharply.Theissuesofdutyandresponsibilitywerereopenedandrevitalizedbytheunemploymentscareof1971-2.RisingunemploymentandincreasedsumspaidoutinbenefitstotheworklesshadreawakenedcontroversieswhichhadbeeninactiveduringmostoftheperiodoffulleremploymentsincethewarendedtheDepression.Itlookedasthoughinfuturetherewouldagainbetoolittleworktogoroundsotherewereargumentsabouthowtoproducemoreworkhowtheavailableworkshouldbesharedoutandwhowasresponsibleforunemploymentandtheunemployed. In1972therewerecriticswhosaidthattheState’’sactioninallowingunemploymenttorisewasafaithlessactabreakingofthesocialcontractbetweensocietyandtheworker.Yetinthemainanycontributionbyemployerstounemployment―suchaslayingoffworkersinordertointroducetechnologicalchangesandmaximizeprofits―tendedtobeignored.Anditwastheunemployedwhowereaccusedoffailingtohonourthesocialcontractbynotfulfillingtheirdutytosocietytowork.Inspiteofgeneralconcernatthescaleoftheunemploymentstatisticswhentheunemployedwereconsideredasindividualstheytendedtoattractscornandthreatsofpunishment.Theircapacitiesandmotivationasworkersandtheirvalueasmembersofsocietybecamesuspect.OfallthemythsoftheWelfareStatestoriesofthework-shyandborrowershavebeentheleastwell-foundedonevidenceyettheyhaveprovedthemostpersistent.TheunemployedwereaccusedofbeingresponsiblefortheirownworklessconditionanddoubtswereexpressedabouttheState’’sobligationeithertoprovidethemwiththesecurityofworkortosupportthemthroughSocialSecurity. Underlyingtheargumentsaboutunemploymentandtheunemployedisabasicdisagreementaboutthenatureandmeaningofworkinsociety.TowhatextentcanorshouldworkberegardedasaservicenotonlyperformedbytheworkerforsocietybutalsomadesecurefortheworkerbytheStateandsupportedifnecessaryAndapartfromcasharetheresocialpressuresandsatisfactionswhichcauseindividualstoseekandkeepwork.sothattheworklessneedworkratherthanjustcash Thebasicdisagreementabouttheessenceofworkrestsonwhetherornot
Everythingseemedtohavebecomea weaponofwar.Ourenemieshad1themostfamiliar objects2usturnedshavingkitsintoholstersand airplanes3missilesandsoccercoachesandnewlywedsinto involuntarysuicidebombers.Soitwas4thePresidentand hisgeneralstoplottheresponse.Thatisbecauseweare 5oneenemybuttwo:oneunseentheotherinside.Terroron thisscale6towreckthewayweliveourlives-makeus flinchwhenasirensounds7whenadoorslamsandthink twicebeforedeciding8wereallyhavetotakeaplane.If wefaltertheywin9theyneverplantanotherbomb.So aftertheearlyhelplessnesswhatcanIdoI’vealreadygivenblood-people startedtorealizethat10theycoulddowasexactlyas preciselyaspossible11theywouldhavedoneifall this12.Thatwasthespirit13 inNewYorkandWashingtonandallacrossthecountryfaithandfear andresolveinatightbraid.Becausethekillerswhohateusdidthe 14nothingisunthinkablenow.Aplumeofgrillsmoke ventingfromaManhattansteakhouse15theevacuationof midtownofficetowers.AfterthePentagon16generals calledtheirfamiliesandtoldthem17thewateritcould bepoisoned.Salesofgunsandgasmasksspiked.TheNationalFootballLeague 18itsgamesforthefirsttimeever;bombscaresemptied90 sitesonThursdayinNewYorkCity19.Peoplewore sneakerswiththeirsuits20theyhadtoflyfastdownthe stairs.
Text1 Everybodyloathesitbuteverybody doesitArecentpollshowedthat20%ofAmericanshatethepractice.Itseems soarbitraryafterall.Whydoesabarmangetatipbutnotadoctorwhosaves livesInAmericaalonetippingisnowa$16billion-a-year industry.Consumersactingrationallyoughtnottopaymorethantheyhaveto foragivenservice.Tipsshouldnotexist.SowhydotheyTheconventional wisdomisthattipsbothrewardtheeffortsofgoodserviceandreduce uncomfortablefeelingsofinequality.Thebettertheservicethebiggerthe tip.Suchexplanationsnodoubtexplainthepurportedoriginof tipping--inthe16thcenturyboxesinEnglishtavernscarriedthephraseTo InsurePromptitudelaterjustTIP.Butaccordingtonewresearchfrom CornellUniversitytippingnolongerservesanyusefulfunction. Thepaperanalysesdatafrom2327groupsdiningat20different restaurants.Thecorrelationbetweenlargertipsandbetterservicewasvery weak:onlyatinypartofthevariabilityinthesizeofthetiphadanythingto dowiththequalityofservice.Customerswhoratedamealasexcellentstill tippedanywherebetween8%and17%ofthemealprice.Tippingis betterexplainedbyculturethanbyeconomics.InAmericathecustomhasbecome institutionalized:itisregardedaspartoftheacceptedcostofaservice.In aNewYorkrestaurantfailingtotipatleast15%couldwellmeanabusefrom thewaiter.Hairdresserscanexpecttoget15-20%themanwhodeliversyour groceries＄2.InEuropetippingislesscommon;inmanyrestaurants discretionarytippingisbeingreplacedbyastandardservicecharge.Inmany Asiancountriestippinghasneverreallycaughtonatall.How toaccountforthesenationaldifferencesLooknofurtherthanpsychology. AccordingtoMichaelLynntheCornellpaper’sco-authorcountriesinwhich peoplearemoreextrovertsociableorneurotictendtotipmore.Tipping relievesanxietyaboutbeingservedbystrangers.AndsaysMr.LynnIn Americawherepeopleareoutgoingandexpressivetippingisaboutsocial approvalffyoutipbadlypeoplethinklessofyou.Tippingwellisachance toshowoff.Icelandersbycontrastdonotusuallytip-ameasureoftheir introversionnodoubt.Whilesuchexplanationsmaybecrude thehardtruthseemstobethattippingdoesnotwork.Itdoesnotbenefitthe customer.Norinthecaseofrestaurantsdoesitactuallystimulatethe waiterorhelptherestaurantmanagertomonitorandassesshisstaff.Service peopleshouldjustbepaidadecentwagewhichmayactuallymakeeconomic sense.Whatcanweknowabouttheoriginoftip
Newsreportsoftenfocusondisputesamongscientistsoverthevalidityofpreliminaryuntesteddatahypothesesandmodelswhichbydefinitionaretentative.Thisaspectofscience-1becauseithasnotbeenwidely2andaccepted-iscalledfrontierscience.Themedia3tofocusonfrontiersciencebecauseitsso-calledbreakthroughsmakegoodnewsstories.Justbecausesomethingisinthe4offrontierscience5doesnotmeanthatitisn’’tworthyofseriousconsideration;6suchmattersneedfurtherstudytodeterminetheir7. 8contrastconsensusscienceconsistsofdatamodelstheoriesandlawsthatarewidelyaccepted.Thisaspectofscienceisveryreliablebutis9considerednewsworthy.Thetroubleisthatthewordscienceisusedto10bothfrontierandconsensussciencewithout11Themediapreference12frontiersciencegivesthepublicthe13impressionthatfrontierscience14verycertainconclusionswhichmayormaynotbecorrect. However15somefrontierscienceislatershowntobeunreliablemembersofthepublicoftenfalsely16thatconsensusscienceisalsoquiteuncertain.Weneedtotakebothfrontierandconsensusscience17butrecognizetheirdifferences.Onewaytofindoutwhatscientistsgenerallyagree18istoseekoutreportsbyscientificbodiesthatattemptto19consensusin20areasofscienceandtechnology.
Agreenhouseeffectwillraisetheearth’’stemperatureenoughbytheyear2100tocausedramaticclimatechangesincreasesealevelsanddisruptfoodproductionUnitedStatesscientistssaidthisweek. Theearth’’satmosphereisheatingataratethatcouldmeantemperaturerisesoftwodegreescentigradebythemiddleofthe21stcenturyandfivedegreescentigradebytheyear2100accordingtoareportissuedbytheUSgovernment’’sEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEPA. SubstantialincreasesinglobalwarmingmayoccursoonerthanmostofuswouldliketobelievetheEPAsaid. Theagencysaidthefirsteffectsmightbefeltasearlyas1990becausetemperatureswouldberisingmorethanseventimesfastereachdecadebetweennowandtheyear2100thantheyhadbeenforthepast100years. TemperatureincreasesarelikelytobeaccompaniedbydramaticchangesinprecipitationandstormpatternsandariseinglobalaveragesealeveltheEPAreportsaid. Asaresulttheagencysaidagriculturalconditionswillbesignificantlyalteredenvironmentalandeconomicsystemspotentiallydisrupted. TheEPAreportsaidtheburningoffossilfuelswasdirectlyresponsibleformostoftheatmospherebuild-upofcarbondioxidebutthecurrentconcentrationissogreatthatevenaworldwidebanontheuseofsuchfuelswoulddelaythewarmingeffectforonlyafewyears. Awarmerclimatewillraisesealevelsbyheatingandexpandingtheworld’’soceansandcausingglacierstomelttheEPAsaid. Theagencyestimatedthatsealevelscouldriseanythingbetween48to380cminthenext120years. Anincreaseofeven48cmcouldfloodorcausestormdamagetomanyofthemajorportsoftheworlddisrupttransportationnetworksalterunderwaterecologysystemsandcausemajorshiftsinlanddevelopmentpatterns. Onestudycitedinthereportsuggestedthatiftheaverageglobaltemperatureroseby2.5degreescentigraderegionalclimaticconditionsmightbesimilartothoseduringthelastinterglacialperiod120000yearsago. Duringthisperiodoceanswerefivetosevenmetreshigherthantoday’’sfloodingtheshoresofEuropeandwesternSiberiaandmakingScandinaviaanisland. Theagencysaidthatwhilethewarmingtrendcouldhavesomebeneficialeffectssuchasreducingheatingcostsandimprovingclimateandgrowingseasonsinsomepartsoftheworldtherewouldbedifficultyinredirectingnationaleconomiestoadapttothenewclimatepatterns. TheEPAsaiditseemedunlikelythatthenationsoftheworldwouldreachaconsensusonsteptoreducecarbondioxideemissions.Insteaditurgedmoreresearchonthegreenhouseeffectandstressedtheneedforbetterplanningtocopewiththechangesthewarmingtrendisexpectedtoproduce. Asaresultoftherisingoftheearth’’stemperatureby2100
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Accordingtothetextdecreasedevaporationismostlikelytobringabout
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Theexampleofozonereductionisusedtoshowthe
Everythingseemedtohavebecomea weaponofwar.Ourenemieshad1themostfamiliar objects2usturnedshavingkitsintoholstersand airplanes3missilesandsoccercoachesandnewlywedsinto involuntarysuicidebombers.Soitwas4thePresidentand hisgeneralstoplottheresponse.Thatisbecauseweare 5oneenemybuttwo:oneunseentheotherinside.Terroron thisscale6towreckthewayweliveourlives-makeus flinchwhenasirensounds7whenadoorslamsandthink twicebeforedeciding8wereallyhavetotakeaplane.If wefaltertheywin9theyneverplantanotherbomb.So aftertheearlyhelplessnesswhatcanIdoI’vealreadygivenblood-people startedtorealizethat10theycoulddowasexactlyas preciselyaspossible11theywouldhavedoneifall this12.Thatwasthespirit13 inNewYorkandWashingtonandallacrossthecountryfaithandfear andresolveinatightbraid.Becausethekillerswhohateusdidthe 14nothingisunthinkablenow.Aplumeofgrillsmoke ventingfromaManhattansteakhouse15theevacuationof midtownofficetowers.AfterthePentagon16generals calledtheirfamiliesandtoldthem17thewateritcould bepoisoned.Salesofgunsandgasmasksspiked.TheNationalFootballLeague 18itsgamesforthefirsttimeever;bombscaresemptied90 sitesonThursdayinNewYorkCity19.Peoplewore sneakerswiththeirsuits20theyhadtoflyfastdownthe stairs.
TowhatextentaretheunemployedfailingintheirdutytosocietytoworkandhowfarhastheStateanobligationtoensurethattheyhaveworktodo Itisbynowincreasinglyrecognizedthatworkersmaybethrownoutofworkbyindustrialforcesbeyondtheircontrolandthattheunemployedareinsomesensepayingthepriceoftheeconomicprogressoftherestofthecommunity.Butconcernwithunemploymentandtheunemployedvariessharply.Theissuesofdutyandresponsibilitywerereopenedandrevitalizedbytheunemploymentscareof1971-2.RisingunemploymentandincreasedsumspaidoutinbenefitstotheworklesshadreawakenedcontroversieswhichhadbeeninactiveduringmostoftheperiodoffulleremploymentsincethewarendedtheDepression.Itlookedasthoughinfuturetherewouldagainbetoolittleworktogoroundsotherewereargumentsabouthowtoproducemoreworkhowtheavailableworkshouldbesharedoutandwhowasresponsibleforunemploymentandtheunemployed. In1972therewerecriticswhosaidthattheState’’sactioninallowingunemploymenttorisewasafaithlessactabreakingofthesocialcontractbetweensocietyandtheworker.Yetinthemainanycontributionbyemployerstounemployment―suchaslayingoffworkersinordertointroducetechnologicalchangesandmaximizeprofits―tendedtobeignored.Anditwastheunemployedwhowereaccusedoffailingtohonourthesocialcontractbynotfulfillingtheirdutytosocietytowork.Inspiteofgeneralconcernatthescaleoftheunemploymentstatisticswhentheunemployedwereconsideredasindividualstheytendedtoattractscornandthreatsofpunishment.Theircapacitiesandmotivationasworkersandtheirvalueasmembersofsocietybecamesuspect.OfallthemythsoftheWelfareStatestoriesofthework-shyandborrowershavebeentheleastwell-foundedonevidenceyettheyhaveprovedthemostpersistent.TheunemployedwereaccusedofbeingresponsiblefortheirownworklessconditionanddoubtswereexpressedabouttheState’’sobligationeithertoprovidethemwiththesecurityofworkortosupportthemthroughSocialSecurity. Underlyingtheargumentsaboutunemploymentandtheunemployedisabasicdisagreementaboutthenatureandmeaningofworkinsociety.TowhatextentcanorshouldworkberegardedasaservicenotonlyperformedbytheworkerforsocietybutalsomadesecurefortheworkerbytheStateandsupportedifnecessaryAndapartfromcasharetheresocialpressuresandsatisfactionswhichcauseindividualstoseekandkeepwork.sothattheworklessneedworkratherthanjustcash Itistheauthor’’sbeliefthat
Everythingseemedtohavebecomea weaponofwar.Ourenemieshad1themostfamiliar objects2usturnedshavingkitsintoholstersand airplanes3missilesandsoccercoachesandnewlywedsinto involuntarysuicidebombers.Soitwas4thePresidentand hisgeneralstoplottheresponse.Thatisbecauseweare 5oneenemybuttwo:oneunseentheotherinside.Terroron thisscale6towreckthewayweliveourlives-makeus flinchwhenasirensounds7whenadoorslamsandthink twicebeforedeciding8wereallyhavetotakeaplane.If wefaltertheywin9theyneverplantanotherbomb.So aftertheearlyhelplessnesswhatcanIdoI’vealreadygivenblood-people startedtorealizethat10theycoulddowasexactlyas preciselyaspossible11theywouldhavedoneifall this12.Thatwasthespirit13 inNewYorkandWashingtonandallacrossthecountryfaithandfear andresolveinatightbraid.Becausethekillerswhohateusdidthe 14nothingisunthinkablenow.Aplumeofgrillsmoke ventingfromaManhattansteakhouse15theevacuationof midtownofficetowers.AfterthePentagon16generals calledtheirfamiliesandtoldthem17thewateritcould bepoisoned.Salesofgunsandgasmasksspiked.TheNationalFootballLeague 18itsgamesforthefirsttimeever;bombscaresemptied90 sitesonThursdayinNewYorkCity19.Peoplewore sneakerswiththeirsuits20theyhadtoflyfastdownthe stairs.
Agreenhouseeffectwillraisetheearth’’stemperatureenoughbytheyear2100tocausedramaticclimatechangesincreasesealevelsanddisruptfoodproductionUnitedStatesscientistssaidthisweek. Theearth’’satmosphereisheatingataratethatcouldmeantemperaturerisesoftwodegreescentigradebythemiddleofthe21stcenturyandfivedegreescentigradebytheyear2100accordingtoareportissuedbytheUSgovernment’’sEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEPA. SubstantialincreasesinglobalwarmingmayoccursoonerthanmostofuswouldliketobelievetheEPAsaid. Theagencysaidthefirsteffectsmightbefeltasearlyas1990becausetemperatureswouldberisingmorethanseventimesfastereachdecadebetweennowandtheyear2100thantheyhadbeenforthepast100years. TemperatureincreasesarelikelytobeaccompaniedbydramaticchangesinprecipitationandstormpatternsandariseinglobalaveragesealeveltheEPAreportsaid. Asaresulttheagencysaidagriculturalconditionswillbesignificantlyalteredenvironmentalandeconomicsystemspotentiallydisrupted. TheEPAreportsaidtheburningoffossilfuelswasdirectlyresponsibleformostoftheatmospherebuild-upofcarbondioxidebutthecurrentconcentrationissogreatthatevenaworldwidebanontheuseofsuchfuelswoulddelaythewarmingeffectforonlyafewyears. Awarmerclimatewillraisesealevelsbyheatingandexpandingtheworld’’soceansandcausingglacierstomelttheEPAsaid. Theagencyestimatedthatsealevelscouldriseanythingbetween48to380cminthenext120years. Anincreaseofeven48cmcouldfloodorcausestormdamagetomanyofthemajorportsoftheworlddisrupttransportationnetworksalterunderwaterecologysystemsandcausemajorshiftsinlanddevelopmentpatterns. Onestudycitedinthereportsuggestedthatiftheaverageglobaltemperatureroseby2.5degreescentigraderegionalclimaticconditionsmightbesimilartothoseduringthelastinterglacialperiod120000yearsago. Duringthisperiodoceanswerefivetosevenmetreshigherthantoday’’sfloodingtheshoresofEuropeandwesternSiberiaandmakingScandinaviaanisland. Theagencysaidthatwhilethewarmingtrendcouldhavesomebeneficialeffectssuchasreducingheatingcostsandimprovingclimateandgrowingseasonsinsomepartsoftheworldtherewouldbedifficultyinredirectingnationaleconomiestoadapttothenewclimatepatterns. TheEPAsaiditseemedunlikelythatthenationsoftheworldwouldreachaconsensusonsteptoreducecarbondioxideemissions.Insteaditurgedmoreresearchonthegreenhouseeffectandstressedtheneedforbetterplanningtocopewiththechangesthewarmingtrendisexpectedtoproduce. TheEPAwarnsusthatunlesstheriseintheearth’’stemperaturewererestrained
WildBillDonovanwouldhavelovedtheIntemet.TheAmericanspymasterwhobuilttheOfficeofStrategicServicesinWorldWarⅡandlaterlaidtherootsfortheCIAwasfascinatedwithinformation.Donovanbelievedinusingwhatevertoolscametohandinthegreatgameofespionage--spyingasaprofession.ThesedaystheNetwhichhasalreadyre-madesucheverydaypastimesasbuyingbooksandsendingmailisreshapingDonovan’’svocationaswell. Thelatestrevolutionisn’’tsimplyamatterofgentlemenreadingothergentlemen’’se-mail.Thatkindofelectronicspyinghasbeengoingonfordecades.InthepastthreeorfouryearstheWorldWideWebhasgivenbirthtoawholeindustryofpoint-and-clickspying.Thespookscallitopen-sourceintelligenceandastheNetgrowsitisbecomingincreasinglyinfluential.In1995theCIAheldacontesttoseewhocouldcompilethemostdataaboutBumndi.ThewinnerbyalargemarginwasatinyVirginiacompanycalledOpenSourceSolutionswhoseclearadvantagewasitsmasteryoftheelectronicworld. AmongthefirmsmakingthebiggestsplashinthisnewworldisStraiffordInc.aprivateintelligence-analysisfirmbasedinAustinTexas.StraiffordmakesmoneybysellingtheresultsofspyingcoveringnationsfromChiletoRussiatocorporationslikeenergy-servicesfirmMcDermottInternational.Manyofitspredictionsareavailableonlineatwww.straitfordcom. StraiffordPresidentGeorgeFriedmansaysheseestheonlineworldasakindofmutuallyreinforcingtoolforbothinformationcollectionanddistributionaspymaster’’sdream.LastweekhisfirmwasbusyvacuumingupdatabitsfromthefarcomersoftheworldandpredictingacrisisinUkraine.Assoonasthatreportrunswe’’IIsuddenlyget500newIntemetsinge-upsfromUkrainesaysFriedmanaformerpoliticalscienceprofessor.Andwe’’11hearbackfromsomeofthem.Open-sourcespyingdoeshaveitsrisksofcoursesinceitcanbedifficulttotellgoodinformationfrombad.That’’swhereStraiffordearnsitskeep. Fridmanreliesonaleanstaffof20inAustin.Severalofhisstaffmembershavemilitary-intelligencebackgrounds.Heseesthefirm’’soutsiderstatusasthekeytoitssuccess.Straifford’’sbriefsdon’’tsoundliketheusualWashingtonback-and-forthingwherebyagenciesavoiddramaticdeclarationsonthechancetheymightbewrong.StraitfordsaysFriedmantakesprideinitsindependentvoice. Itcanbelearnedfromparagraph4that
Therelationoflanguageandmindhasinterestedphilosophersformanycenturies.61TheGreeksassumedthatthestructureoflanguagehadsomeconnectionwiththeprocessofthoughtwhichtookrootinEuropelongbeforepeoplerealizedhowdiverselanguagescouldbe. Onlyrecentlydidlinguistsbegintheseriousstudyoflanguagesthatwereverydifferentfromtheirown.Twoanthropologist-linguistsFranzBoasandEdwardSapirwerepioneersindescribingmanynativelanguagesofNorthandSouthAmericaduringthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury.62Weareobligedtothembecausesomeoftheselanguageshavesincevanishedasthepeopleswhospokethemdiedoutorbecameassimilatedandlosttheirnativelanguages.Otherlinguistsintheearlierpartofthiscenturyhoweverwhowerelesseagertodealwithbizarredatafromexoticlanguagewerenotalwayssograteful.63ThenewlydescribedlanguageswereoftensostrikinglydifferentfromthewellstudiedlanguagesofEuropeandSoutheastAsiathatsomescholarsevenaccusedBoasandSapiroffabricatingtheirdata.NativeAmericanlanguagesareindeeddifferentsomuchsoinfactthatNavajocouldbeusedbytheUSmilitaryasacodeduringWorldWarIItosendsecretmessages. Sapir’’spupilBenjaminLeeWhorfcontinuedthestudyofAmericanIndianlanguages.64BeinginterestedintherelationshipoflanguageandthoughtWhorfdevelopedtheideathatthestructureoflanguagedeterminesthestructureofhabitualthoughtinasociety.Hereasonedthatbecauseitiseasiertoformulatecertainconceptsandnotothersinagivenlanguagethespeakersofthatlanguagethinkalongonetrackandnotalonganother.65Whorfcametobelieveinasortoflinguisticdeterminismwhichinitsstrongestformstatesthatlanguageimprisonsthemindandthatthegrammaticalpatternsinalanguagecanproducefar-reachingconsequencesforthecultureofasociety.LaterthisideabecametobeknownastheSapir-Whorfhypothesisbutthistermissomewhatinappropriate.AlthoughbothSapirandWhorfemphasizedthediversityoflanguagesSapirhimselfneverexplicitlysupportedthenotionoflinguisticdeterminism. Therelationoflanguageandmindhasinterestedphilosophersformanycenturies.61TheGreeksassumedthatthestructureoflanguagehadsomeconnectionwiththeprocessofthoughtwhichtookrootinEuropelongbeforepeoplerealizedhowdiverselanguagescouldbe. Onlyrecentlydidlinguistsbegintheseriousstudyoflanguagesthatwereverydifferentfromtheirown.Twoanthropologist-linguistsFranzBoasandEdwardSapirwerepioneersindescribingmanynativelanguagesofNorthandSouthAmericaduringthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury.62Weareobligedtothembecausesomeoftheselanguageshavesincevanishedasthepeopleswhospokethemdiedoutorbecameassimilatedandlosttheirnativelanguages.Otherlinguistsintheearlierpartofthiscenturyhoweverwhowerelesseagertodealwithbizarredatafromexoticlanguagewerenotalwayssograteful.63ThenewlydescribedlanguageswereoftensostrikinglydifferentfromthewellstudiedlanguagesofEuropeandSoutheastAsiathatsomescholarsevenaccusedBoasandSapiroffabricatingtheirdata.NativeAmericanlanguagesareindeeddifferentsomuchsoinfactthatNavajocouldbeusedbytheUSmilitaryasacodeduringWorldWarIItosendsecretmessages. Sapir’’spupilBenjaminLeeWhorfcontinuedthestudyofAmericanIndianlanguages.64BeinginterestedintherelationshipoflanguageandthoughtWhorfdevelopedtheideathatthestructureoflanguagedeterminesthestructureofhabitualthoughtinasociety.Hereasonedthatbecauseitiseasiertoformulatecertainconceptsandnotothersinagivenlanguagethespeakersofthatlanguagethinkalongonetrackandnotalonganother.65Whorfcametobelieveinasortoflinguisticdeterminismwhichinitsstrongestformstatesthatlanguageimprisonsthemindandthatthegrammaticalpatternsinalanguagecanproducefar-reachingconsequencesforthecultureofasociety.LaterthisideabecametobeknownastheSapir-Whorfhypothesisbutthistermissomewhatinappropriate.AlthoughbothSapirandWhorfemphasizedthediversityoflanguagesSapirhimselfneverexplicitlysupportedthenotionoflinguisticdeterminism.
Everythingseemedtohavebecomea weaponofwar.Ourenemieshad1themostfamiliar objects2usturnedshavingkitsintoholstersand airplanes3missilesandsoccercoachesandnewlywedsinto involuntarysuicidebombers.Soitwas4thePresidentand hisgeneralstoplottheresponse.Thatisbecauseweare 5oneenemybuttwo:oneunseentheotherinside.Terroron thisscale6towreckthewayweliveourlives-makeus flinchwhenasirensounds7whenadoorslamsandthink twicebeforedeciding8wereallyhavetotakeaplane.If wefaltertheywin9theyneverplantanotherbomb.So aftertheearlyhelplessnesswhatcanIdoI’vealreadygivenblood-people startedtorealizethat10theycoulddowasexactlyas preciselyaspossible11theywouldhavedoneifall this12.Thatwasthespirit13 inNewYorkandWashingtonandallacrossthecountryfaithandfear andresolveinatightbraid.Becausethekillerswhohateusdidthe 14nothingisunthinkablenow.Aplumeofgrillsmoke ventingfromaManhattansteakhouse15theevacuationof midtownofficetowers.AfterthePentagon16generals calledtheirfamiliesandtoldthem17thewateritcould bepoisoned.Salesofgunsandgasmasksspiked.TheNationalFootballLeague 18itsgamesforthefirsttimeever;bombscaresemptied90 sitesonThursdayinNewYorkCity19.Peoplewore sneakerswiththeirsuits20theyhadtoflyfastdownthe stairs.
Everythingseemedtohavebecomea weaponofwar.Ourenemieshad1themostfamiliar objects2usturnedshavingkitsintoholstersand airplanes3missilesandsoccercoachesandnewlywedsinto involuntarysuicidebombers.Soitwas4thePresidentand hisgeneralstoplottheresponse.Thatisbecauseweare 5oneenemybuttwo:oneunseentheotherinside.Terroron thisscale6towreckthewayweliveourlives-makeus flinchwhenasirensounds7whenadoorslamsandthink twicebeforedeciding8wereallyhavetotakeaplane.If wefaltertheywin9theyneverplantanotherbomb.So aftertheearlyhelplessnesswhatcanIdoI’vealreadygivenblood-people startedtorealizethat10theycoulddowasexactlyas preciselyaspossible11theywouldhavedoneifall this12.Thatwasthespirit13 inNewYorkandWashingtonandallacrossthecountryfaithandfear andresolveinatightbraid.Becausethekillerswhohateusdidthe 14nothingisunthinkablenow.Aplumeofgrillsmoke ventingfromaManhattansteakhouse15theevacuationof midtownofficetowers.AfterthePentagon16generals calledtheirfamiliesandtoldthem17thewateritcould bepoisoned.Salesofgunsandgasmasksspiked.TheNationalFootballLeague 18itsgamesforthefirsttimeever;bombscaresemptied90 sitesonThursdayinNewYorkCity19.Peoplewore sneakerswiththeirsuits20theyhadtoflyfastdownthe stairs.
Therelationoflanguageandmindhasinterestedphilosophersformanycenturies.61TheGreeksassumedthatthestructureoflanguagehadsomeconnectionwiththeprocessofthoughtwhichtookrootinEuropelongbeforepeoplerealizedhowdiverselanguagescouldbe. Onlyrecentlydidlinguistsbegintheseriousstudyoflanguagesthatwereverydifferentfromtheirown.Twoanthropologist-linguistsFranzBoasandEdwardSapirwerepioneersindescribingmanynativelanguagesofNorthandSouthAmericaduringthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury.62Weareobligedtothembecausesomeoftheselanguageshavesincevanishedasthepeopleswhospokethemdiedoutorbecameassimilatedandlosttheirnativelanguages.Otherlinguistsintheearlierpartofthiscenturyhoweverwhowerelesseagertodealwithbizarredatafromexoticlanguagewerenotalwayssograteful.63ThenewlydescribedlanguageswereoftensostrikinglydifferentfromthewellstudiedlanguagesofEuropeandSoutheastAsiathatsomescholarsevenaccusedBoasandSapiroffabricatingtheirdata.NativeAmericanlanguagesareindeeddifferentsomuchsoinfactthatNavajocouldbeusedbytheUSmilitaryasacodeduringWorldWarIItosendsecretmessages. Sapir’’spupilBenjaminLeeWhorfcontinuedthestudyofAmericanIndianlanguages.64BeinginterestedintherelationshipoflanguageandthoughtWhorfdevelopedtheideathatthestructureoflanguagedeterminesthestructureofhabitualthoughtinasociety.Hereasonedthatbecauseitiseasiertoformulatecertainconceptsandnotothersinagivenlanguagethespeakersofthatlanguagethinkalongonetrackandnotalonganother.65Whorfcametobelieveinasortoflinguisticdeterminismwhichinitsstrongestformstatesthatlanguageimprisonsthemindandthatthegrammaticalpatternsinalanguagecanproducefar-reachingconsequencesforthecultureofasociety.LaterthisideabecametobeknownastheSapir-Whorfhypothesisbutthistermissomewhatinappropriate.AlthoughbothSapirandWhorfemphasizedthediversityoflanguagesSapirhimselfneverexplicitlysupportedthenotionoflinguisticdeterminism.
Everythingseemedtohavebecomea weaponofwar.Ourenemieshad1themostfamiliar objects2usturnedshavingkitsintoholstersand airplanes3missilesandsoccercoachesandnewlywedsinto involuntarysuicidebombers.Soitwas4thePresidentand hisgeneralstoplottheresponse.Thatisbecauseweare 5oneenemybuttwo:oneunseentheotherinside.Terroron thisscale6towreckthewayweliveourlives-makeus flinchwhenasirensounds7whenadoorslamsandthink twicebeforedeciding8wereallyhavetotakeaplane.If wefaltertheywin9theyneverplantanotherbomb.So aftertheearlyhelplessnesswhatcanIdoI’vealreadygivenblood-people startedtorealizethat10theycoulddowasexactlyas preciselyaspossible11theywouldhavedoneifall this12.Thatwasthespirit13 inNewYorkandWashingtonandallacrossthecountryfaithandfear andresolveinatightbraid.Becausethekillerswhohateusdidthe 14nothingisunthinkablenow.Aplumeofgrillsmoke ventingfromaManhattansteakhouse15theevacuationof midtownofficetowers.AfterthePentagon16generals calledtheirfamiliesandtoldthem17thewateritcould bepoisoned.Salesofgunsandgasmasksspiked.TheNationalFootballLeague 18itsgamesforthefirsttimeever;bombscaresemptied90 sitesonThursdayinNewYorkCity19.Peoplewore sneakerswiththeirsuits20theyhadtoflyfastdownthe stairs.
Everythingseemedtohavebecomea weaponofwar.Ourenemieshad1themostfamiliar objects2usturnedshavingkitsintoholstersand airplanes3missilesandsoccercoachesandnewlywedsinto involuntarysuicidebombers.Soitwas4thePresidentand hisgeneralstoplottheresponse.Thatisbecauseweare 5oneenemybuttwo:oneunseentheotherinside.Terroron thisscale6towreckthewayweliveourlives-makeus flinchwhenasirensounds7whenadoorslamsandthink twicebeforedeciding8wereallyhavetotakeaplane.If wefaltertheywin9theyneverplantanotherbomb.So aftertheearlyhelplessnesswhatcanIdoI’vealreadygivenblood-people startedtorealizethat10theycoulddowasexactlyas preciselyaspossible11theywouldhavedoneifall this12.Thatwasthespirit13 inNewYorkandWashingtonandallacrossthecountryfaithandfear andresolveinatightbraid.Becausethekillerswhohateusdidthe 14nothingisunthinkablenow.Aplumeofgrillsmoke ventingfromaManhattansteakhouse15theevacuationof midtownofficetowers.AfterthePentagon16generals calledtheirfamiliesandtoldthem17thewateritcould bepoisoned.Salesofgunsandgasmasksspiked.TheNationalFootballLeague 18itsgamesforthefirsttimeever;bombscaresemptied90 sitesonThursdayinNewYorkCity19.Peoplewore sneakerswiththeirsuits20theyhadtoflyfastdownthe stairs.
Text1 Everybodyloathesitbuteverybody doesitArecentpollshowedthat20%ofAmericanshatethepractice.Itseems soarbitraryafterall.Whydoesabarmangetatipbutnotadoctorwhosaves livesInAmericaalonetippingisnowa$16billion-a-year industry.Consumersactingrationallyoughtnottopaymorethantheyhaveto foragivenservice.Tipsshouldnotexist.SowhydotheyTheconventional wisdomisthattipsbothrewardtheeffortsofgoodserviceandreduce uncomfortablefeelingsofinequality.Thebettertheservicethebiggerthe tip.Suchexplanationsnodoubtexplainthepurportedoriginof tipping--inthe16thcenturyboxesinEnglishtavernscarriedthephraseTo InsurePromptitudelaterjustTIP.Butaccordingtonewresearchfrom CornellUniversitytippingnolongerservesanyusefulfunction. Thepaperanalysesdatafrom2327groupsdiningat20different restaurants.Thecorrelationbetweenlargertipsandbetterservicewasvery weak:onlyatinypartofthevariabilityinthesizeofthetiphadanythingto dowiththequalityofservice.Customerswhoratedamealasexcellentstill tippedanywherebetween8%and17%ofthemealprice.Tippingis betterexplainedbyculturethanbyeconomics.InAmericathecustomhasbecome institutionalized:itisregardedaspartoftheacceptedcostofaservice.In aNewYorkrestaurantfailingtotipatleast15%couldwellmeanabusefrom thewaiter.Hairdresserscanexpecttoget15-20%themanwhodeliversyour groceries＄2.InEuropetippingislesscommon;inmanyrestaurants discretionarytippingisbeingreplacedbyastandardservicecharge.Inmany Asiancountriestippinghasneverreallycaughtonatall.How toaccountforthesenationaldifferencesLooknofurtherthanpsychology. AccordingtoMichaelLynntheCornellpaper’sco-authorcountriesinwhich peoplearemoreextrovertsociableorneurotictendtotipmore.Tipping relievesanxietyaboutbeingservedbystrangers.AndsaysMr.LynnIn Americawherepeopleareoutgoingandexpressivetippingisaboutsocial approvalffyoutipbadlypeoplethinklessofyou.Tippingwellisachance toshowoff.Icelandersbycontrastdonotusuallytip-ameasureoftheir introversionnodoubt.Whilesuchexplanationsmaybecrude thehardtruthseemstobethattippingdoesnotwork.Itdoesnotbenefitthe customer.Norinthecaseofrestaurantsdoesitactuallystimulatethe waiterorhelptherestaurantmanagertomonitorandassesshisstaff.Service peopleshouldjustbepaidadecentwagewhichmayactuallymakeeconomic sense.PeoplewhodineinaNewYorkrestaurant______.
Newsreportsoftenfocusondisputesamongscientistsoverthevalidityofpreliminaryuntesteddatahypothesesandmodelswhichbydefinitionaretentative.Thisaspectofscience-1becauseithasnotbeenwidely2andaccepted-iscalledfrontierscience.Themedia3tofocusonfrontiersciencebecauseitsso-calledbreakthroughsmakegoodnewsstories.Justbecausesomethingisinthe4offrontierscience5doesnotmeanthatitisn’’tworthyofseriousconsideration;6suchmattersneedfurtherstudytodeterminetheir7. 8contrastconsensusscienceconsistsofdatamodelstheoriesandlawsthatarewidelyaccepted.Thisaspectofscienceisveryreliablebutis9considerednewsworthy.Thetroubleisthatthewordscienceisusedto10bothfrontierandconsensussciencewithout11Themediapreference12frontiersciencegivesthepublicthe13impressionthatfrontierscience14verycertainconclusionswhichmayormaynotbecorrect. However15somefrontierscienceislatershowntobeunreliablemembersofthepublicoftenfalsely16thatconsensusscienceisalsoquiteuncertain.Weneedtotakebothfrontierandconsensusscience17butrecognizetheirdifferences.Onewaytofindoutwhatscientistsgenerallyagree18istoseekoutreportsbyscientificbodiesthatattemptto19consensusin20areasofscienceandtechnology.
Everythingseemedtohavebecomea weaponofwar.Ourenemieshad1themostfamiliar objects2usturnedshavingkitsintoholstersand airplanes3missilesandsoccercoachesandnewlywedsinto involuntarysuicidebombers.Soitwas4thePresidentand hisgeneralstoplottheresponse.Thatisbecauseweare 5oneenemybuttwo:oneunseentheotherinside.Terroron thisscale6towreckthewayweliveourlives-makeus flinchwhenasirensounds7whenadoorslamsandthink twicebeforedeciding8wereallyhavetotakeaplane.If wefaltertheywin9theyneverplantanotherbomb.So aftertheearlyhelplessnesswhatcanIdoI’vealreadygivenblood-people startedtorealizethat10theycoulddowasexactlyas preciselyaspossible11theywouldhavedoneifall this12.Thatwasthespirit13 inNewYorkandWashingtonandallacrossthecountryfaithandfear andresolveinatightbraid.Becausethekillerswhohateusdidthe 14nothingisunthinkablenow.Aplumeofgrillsmoke ventingfromaManhattansteakhouse15theevacuationof midtownofficetowers.AfterthePentagon16generals calledtheirfamiliesandtoldthem17thewateritcould bepoisoned.Salesofgunsandgasmasksspiked.TheNationalFootballLeague 18itsgamesforthefirsttimeever;bombscaresemptied90 sitesonThursdayinNewYorkCity19.Peoplewore sneakerswiththeirsuits20theyhadtoflyfastdownthe stairs.
WildBillDonovanwouldhavelovedtheIntemet.TheAmericanspymasterwhobuilttheOfficeofStrategicServicesinWorldWarⅡandlaterlaidtherootsfortheCIAwasfascinatedwithinformation.Donovanbelievedinusingwhatevertoolscametohandinthegreatgameofespionage--spyingasaprofession.ThesedaystheNetwhichhasalreadyre-madesucheverydaypastimesasbuyingbooksandsendingmailisreshapingDonovan’’svocationaswell. Thelatestrevolutionisn’’tsimplyamatterofgentlemenreadingothergentlemen’’se-mail.Thatkindofelectronicspyinghasbeengoingonfordecades.InthepastthreeorfouryearstheWorldWideWebhasgivenbirthtoawholeindustryofpoint-and-clickspying.Thespookscallitopen-sourceintelligenceandastheNetgrowsitisbecomingincreasinglyinfluential.In1995theCIAheldacontesttoseewhocouldcompilethemostdataaboutBumndi.ThewinnerbyalargemarginwasatinyVirginiacompanycalledOpenSourceSolutionswhoseclearadvantagewasitsmasteryoftheelectronicworld. AmongthefirmsmakingthebiggestsplashinthisnewworldisStraiffordInc.aprivateintelligence-analysisfirmbasedinAustinTexas.StraiffordmakesmoneybysellingtheresultsofspyingcoveringnationsfromChiletoRussiatocorporationslikeenergy-servicesfirmMcDermottInternational.Manyofitspredictionsareavailableonlineatwww.straitfordcom. StraiffordPresidentGeorgeFriedmansaysheseestheonlineworldasakindofmutuallyreinforcingtoolforbothinformationcollectionanddistributionaspymaster’’sdream.LastweekhisfirmwasbusyvacuumingupdatabitsfromthefarcomersoftheworldandpredictingacrisisinUkraine.Assoonasthatreportrunswe’’IIsuddenlyget500newIntemetsinge-upsfromUkrainesaysFriedmanaformerpoliticalscienceprofessor.Andwe’’11hearbackfromsomeofthem.Open-sourcespyingdoeshaveitsrisksofcoursesinceitcanbedifficulttotellgoodinformationfrombad.That’’swhereStraiffordearnsitskeep. Fridmanreliesonaleanstaffof20inAustin.Severalofhisstaffmembershavemilitary-intelligencebackgrounds.Heseesthefirm’’soutsiderstatusasthekeytoitssuccess.Straifford’’sbriefsdon’’tsoundliketheusualWashingtonback-and-forthingwherebyagenciesavoiddramaticdeclarationsonthechancetheymightbewrong.StraitfordsaysFriedmantakesprideinitsindependentvoice. Donovan’’sstoryismentionedinthetextto
Everythingseemedtohavebecomea weaponofwar.Ourenemieshad1themostfamiliar objects2usturnedshavingkitsintoholstersand airplanes3missilesandsoccercoachesandnewlywedsinto involuntarysuicidebombers.Soitwas4thePresidentand hisgeneralstoplottheresponse.Thatisbecauseweare 5oneenemybuttwo:oneunseentheotherinside.Terroron thisscale6towreckthewayweliveourlives-makeus flinchwhenasirensounds7whenadoorslamsandthink twicebeforedeciding8wereallyhavetotakeaplane.If wefaltertheywin9theyneverplantanotherbomb.So aftertheearlyhelplessnesswhatcanIdoI’vealreadygivenblood-people startedtorealizethat10theycoulddowasexactlyas preciselyaspossible11theywouldhavedoneifall this12.Thatwasthespirit13 inNewYorkandWashingtonandallacrossthecountryfaithandfear andresolveinatightbraid.Becausethekillerswhohateusdidthe 14nothingisunthinkablenow.Aplumeofgrillsmoke ventingfromaManhattansteakhouse15theevacuationof midtownofficetowers.AfterthePentagon16generals calledtheirfamiliesandtoldthem17thewateritcould bepoisoned.Salesofgunsandgasmasksspiked.TheNationalFootballLeague 18itsgamesforthefirsttimeever;bombscaresemptied90 sitesonThursdayinNewYorkCity19.Peoplewore sneakerswiththeirsuits20theyhadtoflyfastdownthe stairs.
Therelationoflanguageandmindhasinterestedphilosophersformanycenturies.61TheGreeksassumedthatthestructureoflanguagehadsomeconnectionwiththeprocessofthoughtwhichtookrootinEuropelongbeforepeoplerealizedhowdiverselanguagescouldbe. Onlyrecentlydidlinguistsbegintheseriousstudyoflanguagesthatwereverydifferentfromtheirown.Twoanthropologist-linguistsFranzBoasandEdwardSapirwerepioneersindescribingmanynativelanguagesofNorthandSouthAmericaduringthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury.62Weareobligedtothembecausesomeoftheselanguageshavesincevanishedasthepeopleswhospokethemdiedoutorbecameassimilatedandlosttheirnativelanguages.Otherlinguistsintheearlierpartofthiscenturyhoweverwhowerelesseagertodealwithbizarredatafromexoticlanguagewerenotalwayssograteful.63ThenewlydescribedlanguageswereoftensostrikinglydifferentfromthewellstudiedlanguagesofEuropeandSoutheastAsiathatsomescholarsevenaccusedBoasandSapiroffabricatingtheirdata.NativeAmericanlanguagesareindeeddifferentsomuchsoinfactthatNavajocouldbeusedbytheUSmilitaryasacodeduringWorldWarIItosendsecretmessages. Sapir’’spupilBenjaminLeeWhorfcontinuedthestudyofAmericanIndianlanguages.64BeinginterestedintherelationshipoflanguageandthoughtWhorfdevelopedtheideathatthestructureoflanguagedeterminesthestructureofhabitualthoughtinasociety.Hereasonedthatbecauseitiseasiertoformulatecertainconceptsandnotothersinagivenlanguagethespeakersofthatlanguagethinkalongonetrackandnotalonganother.65Whorfcametobelieveinasortoflinguisticdeterminismwhichinitsstrongestformstatesthatlanguageimprisonsthemindandthatthegrammaticalpatternsinalanguagecanproducefar-reachingconsequencesforthecultureofasociety.LaterthisideabecametobeknownastheSapir-Whorfhypothesisbutthistermissomewhatinappropriate.AlthoughbothSapirandWhorfemphasizedthediversityoflanguagesSapirhimselfneverexplicitlysupportedthenotionoflinguisticdeterminism.
Newsreportsoftenfocusondisputesamongscientistsoverthevalidityofpreliminaryuntesteddatahypothesesandmodelswhichbydefinitionaretentative.Thisaspectofscience-1becauseithasnotbeenwidely2andaccepted-iscalledfrontierscience.Themedia3tofocusonfrontiersciencebecauseitsso-calledbreakthroughsmakegoodnewsstories.Justbecausesomethingisinthe4offrontierscience5doesnotmeanthatitisn’’tworthyofseriousconsideration;6suchmattersneedfurtherstudytodeterminetheir7. 8contrastconsensusscienceconsistsofdatamodelstheoriesandlawsthatarewidelyaccepted.Thisaspectofscienceisveryreliablebutis9considerednewsworthy.Thetroubleisthatthewordscienceisusedto10bothfrontierandconsensussciencewithout11Themediapreference12frontiersciencegivesthepublicthe13impressionthatfrontierscience14verycertainconclusionswhichmayormaynotbecorrect. However15somefrontierscienceislatershowntobeunreliablemembersofthepublicoftenfalsely16thatconsensusscienceisalsoquiteuncertain.Weneedtotakebothfrontierandconsensusscience17butrecognizetheirdifferences.Onewaytofindoutwhatscientistsgenerallyagree18istoseekoutreportsbyscientificbodiesthatattemptto19consensusin20areasofscienceandtechnology.
Newsreportsoftenfocusondisputesamongscientistsoverthevalidityofpreliminaryuntesteddatahypothesesandmodelswhichbydefinitionaretentative.Thisaspectofscience-1becauseithasnotbeenwidely2andaccepted-iscalledfrontierscience.Themedia3tofocusonfrontiersciencebecauseitsso-calledbreakthroughsmakegoodnewsstories.Justbecausesomethingisinthe4offrontierscience5doesnotmeanthatitisn’’tworthyofseriousconsideration;6suchmattersneedfurtherstudytodeterminetheir7. 8contrastconsensusscienceconsistsofdatamodelstheoriesandlawsthatarewidelyaccepted.Thisaspectofscienceisveryreliablebutis9considerednewsworthy.Thetroubleisthatthewordscienceisusedto10bothfrontierandconsensussciencewithout11Themediapreference12frontiersciencegivesthepublicthe13impressionthatfrontierscience14verycertainconclusionswhichmayormaynotbecorrect. However15somefrontierscienceislatershowntobeunreliablemembersofthepublicoftenfalsely16thatconsensusscienceisalsoquiteuncertain.Weneedtotakebothfrontierandconsensusscience17butrecognizetheirdifferences.Onewaytofindoutwhatscientistsgenerallyagree18istoseekoutreportsbyscientificbodiesthatattemptto19consensusin20areasofscienceandtechnology.
Everythingseemedtohavebecomea weaponofwar.Ourenemieshad1themostfamiliar objects2usturnedshavingkitsintoholstersand airplanes3missilesandsoccercoachesandnewlywedsinto involuntarysuicidebombers.Soitwas4thePresidentand hisgeneralstoplottheresponse.Thatisbecauseweare 5oneenemybuttwo:oneunseentheotherinside.Terroron thisscale6towreckthewayweliveourlives-makeus flinchwhenasirensounds7whenadoorslamsandthink twicebeforedeciding8wereallyhavetotakeaplane.If wefaltertheywin9theyneverplantanotherbomb.So aftertheearlyhelplessnesswhatcanIdoI’vealreadygivenblood-people startedtorealizethat10theycoulddowasexactlyas preciselyaspossible11theywouldhavedoneifall this12.Thatwasthespirit13 inNewYorkandWashingtonandallacrossthecountryfaithandfear andresolveinatightbraid.Becausethekillerswhohateusdidthe 14nothingisunthinkablenow.Aplumeofgrillsmoke ventingfromaManhattansteakhouse15theevacuationof midtownofficetowers.AfterthePentagon16generals calledtheirfamiliesandtoldthem17thewateritcould bepoisoned.Salesofgunsandgasmasksspiked.TheNationalFootballLeague 18itsgamesforthefirsttimeever;bombscaresemptied90 sitesonThursdayinNewYorkCity19.Peoplewore sneakerswiththeirsuits20theyhadtoflyfastdownthe stairs.
Agreenhouseeffectwillraisetheearth’’stemperatureenoughbytheyear2100tocausedramaticclimatechangesincreasesealevelsanddisruptfoodproductionUnitedStatesscientistssaidthisweek. Theearth’’satmosphereisheatingataratethatcouldmeantemperaturerisesoftwodegreescentigradebythemiddleofthe21stcenturyandfivedegreescentigradebytheyear2100accordingtoareportissuedbytheUSgovernment’’sEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEPA. SubstantialincreasesinglobalwarmingmayoccursoonerthanmostofuswouldliketobelievetheEPAsaid. Theagencysaidthefirsteffectsmightbefeltasearlyas1990becausetemperatureswouldberisingmorethanseventimesfastereachdecadebetweennowandtheyear2100thantheyhadbeenforthepast100years. TemperatureincreasesarelikelytobeaccompaniedbydramaticchangesinprecipitationandstormpatternsandariseinglobalaveragesealeveltheEPAreportsaid. Asaresulttheagencysaidagriculturalconditionswillbesignificantlyalteredenvironmentalandeconomicsystemspotentiallydisrupted. TheEPAreportsaidtheburningoffossilfuelswasdirectlyresponsibleformostoftheatmospherebuild-upofcarbondioxidebutthecurrentconcentrationissogreatthatevenaworldwidebanontheuseofsuchfuelswoulddelaythewarmingeffectforonlyafewyears. Awarmerclimatewillraisesealevelsbyheatingandexpandingtheworld’’soceansandcausingglacierstomelttheEPAsaid. Theagencyestimatedthatsealevelscouldriseanythingbetween48to380cminthenext120years. Anincreaseofeven48cmcouldfloodorcausestormdamagetomanyofthemajorportsoftheworlddisrupttransportationnetworksalterunderwaterecologysystemsandcausemajorshiftsinlanddevelopmentpatterns. Onestudycitedinthereportsuggestedthatiftheaverageglobaltemperatureroseby2.5degreescentigraderegionalclimaticconditionsmightbesimilartothoseduringthelastinterglacialperiod120000yearsago. Duringthisperiodoceanswerefivetosevenmetreshigherthantoday’’sfloodingtheshoresofEuropeandwesternSiberiaandmakingScandinaviaanisland. Theagencysaidthatwhilethewarmingtrendcouldhavesomebeneficialeffectssuchasreducingheatingcostsandimprovingclimateandgrowingseasonsinsomepartsoftheworldtherewouldbedifficultyinredirectingnationaleconomiestoadapttothenewclimatepatterns. TheEPAsaiditseemedunlikelythatthenationsoftheworldwouldreachaconsensusonsteptoreducecarbondioxideemissions.Insteaditurgedmoreresearchonthegreenhouseeffectandstressedtheneedforbetterplanningtocopewiththechangesthewarmingtrendisexpectedtoproduce. WhichofthepointsbelowisNOTgiveninthenewsreport
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