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MuchofthelanguageusedtodescribemonetarypolicysuchassteeringtheeconomytoasoftlandingoratouchonthebrakesmakesitsoundLikeaprecisescience.Nothingcouldbefurtherfromthetruth.Thelinkbetweeninterestratesandinflationisuncertain.Andtherearelongvariablelagsbeforepolicychangeshaveanyeffectontheeconomy.Hencetheanalogythatlikenstheconductofmonetarypolicytodrivingacarwithablackenedwindscreenacrackedrear-viewmirrorandafaultysteeringwheel. Givenallthesedisadvantagescentralbankersseemtohavehadmuchtoboastaboutoflate.Averageinflationinthebigsevenindustrialeconomiesfelltoamere2.3%lastyearclosetoitslowestlevelin30yearsbeforerisingslightlyto2.5%thisJuly.Thisisalongwaybelowthedouble-digitrateswhichmanycountriesexperiencedinthe1970sandearly1980s. Itisalsolessthanmostforecastershadpredicted.Inlate1994thepanelofeconomistswhichTheEconomistpollseachmonthsaidthatAmerica’’sinflationratewouldaverage3.5%in1995.Infactitfellto2.6%inAugustandisexpectedtoaverageonlyabout3%fortheyearasawhole.InBritainandJapaninflationisrunninghalfapercentagepointbelowtheratepredictedattheendoflastyear.ThisisnoflashinthepanoverthepastcoupleofyearsinflationhasbeenconsistentlylowerthanexpectedinBritainandAmerica. EconomistshavebeenparticularlysurprisedbyfavourableinflationfiguresinBritainandtheUnitedStatessinceconventionalmeasuressuggestthatbotheconomiesandespeciallyAmerica’’shavelittleproductiveslack.America’’scapacityutilisationforexamplehithistoricallyhighlevelsearlierthisyearanditsjoblessrate5.6%inAugusthasfallenbelowmostestimatesofthenaturalrateofunemployment―theratebelowwhichinflationhastakenoffinthepast. WhyhasinflationprovedsomildThemostthrillingexplanationisunfortunatelyalittledefective.Someeconomistsarguethatpowerfulstructuralchangesintheworldhaveup-endedtheoldeconomicmodelsthatwerebaseduponthehistoricallinkbetweengrowthandinflation. Fromthepassagewelearnthat____________.
Ifafarmerwishestosucceedhemusttrytokeepawidegapbetweenhisconsumptionandhisproduction.Hemuststorealargequantityofgrain________consumingallhisgrainimmediately.Hecancontinuetosupporthimselfandhisfamily________heproducesasurplus.Hemustusethissurplusinthreeways:asseedforsowingasaninsurance________theunpredictableeffectsofbadweatherandasacommoditywhichhemustsellinorderto________oldagriculturalimplementsandobtainchemicalfertilizersto______thesoil.Hemayalsoneedmoneytoconstructirrigation______andimprovehisfarminotherways.Ifnosurplusisavailableafarmercannotbe______.Hemusteithersellsomeofhispropertyor________extrafundsintheformofloans.Naturallyhewilltrytoborrowmoneyatalow________ofinterestbutloansofthiskindarenot________obtainable.
MuchofthelanguageusedtodescribemonetarypolicysuchassteeringtheeconomytoasoftlandingoratouchonthebrakesmakesitsoundLikeaprecisescience.Nothingcouldbefurtherfromthetruth.Thelinkbetweeninterestratesandinflationisuncertain.Andtherearelongvariablelagsbeforepolicychangeshaveanyeffectontheeconomy.Hencetheanalogythatlikenstheconductofmonetarypolicytodrivingacarwithablackenedwindscreenacrackedrear-viewmirrorandafaultysteeringwheel. Givenallthesedisadvantagescentralbankersseemtohavehadmuchtoboastaboutoflate.Averageinflationinthebigsevenindustrialeconomiesfelltoamere2.3%lastyearclosetoitslowestlevelin30yearsbeforerisingslightlyto2.5%thisJuly.Thisisalongwaybelowthedouble-digitrateswhichmanycountriesexperiencedinthe1970sandearly1980s. Itisalsolessthanmostforecastershadpredicted.Inlate1994thepanelofeconomistswhichTheEconomistpollseachmonthsaidthatAmerica’’sinflationratewouldaverage3.5%in1995.Infactitfellto2.6%inAugustandisexpectedtoaverageonlyabout3%fortheyearasawhole.InBritainandJapaninflationisrunninghalfapercentagepointbelowtheratepredictedattheendoflastyear.ThisisnoflashinthepanoverthepastcoupleofyearsinflationhasbeenconsistentlylowerthanexpectedinBritainandAmerica. EconomistshavebeenparticularlysurprisedbyfavourableinflationfiguresinBritainandtheUnitedStatessinceconventionalmeasuressuggestthatbotheconomiesandespeciallyAmerica’’shavelittleproductiveslack.America’’scapacityutilisationforexamplehithistoricallyhighlevelsearlierthisyearanditsjoblessrate5.6%inAugusthasfallenbelowmostestimatesofthenaturalrateofunemployment―theratebelowwhichinflationhastakenoffinthepast. WhyhasinflationprovedsomildThemostthrillingexplanationisunfortunatelyalittledefective.Someeconomistsarguethatpowerfulstructuralchangesintheworldhaveup-endedtheoldeconomicmodelsthatwerebaseduponthehistoricallinkbetweengrowthandinflation. ThesentenceThisisnoflashinthepanLine5Paragraph3meansthat___________.
Ourworldofthemid-1990sfacespotentiallyburstingchange.Thequestionisinwhatdirectionwillittakeus46Willthechangecomefromworldwideinitiativesthatreversethedegradationoftheplanetandrestorehopeforthefutureorwillitcomefromcontinuingenvironmentaldeteriorationthatleadstoeconomicdeclineandsocialinstability Thereisnoprecedentfortherapidsubstantialchangeweneedtomake.47Buildinganenvironmentallysustainablefuturedependsonrestructuringtheglobaleconomymajorshiftsinhumanreproductivebehavioranddramaticchangesinvaluesandlifestyles.Doingallthisquicklyaddsuptoarevolutionthatisdrivenanddefinedbytheneedtorestoretheearth’’senvironmentalsystems.IfthisEnvironmentalRevolutionsucceedsitwillrankwiththeAgriculturalandIndustrialRevolutionsasoneofthegreateconomicandsocialtransformationsinhumanhistory. LiketheAgriculturalRevolutionitwilldramaticallyalterpopulationtrends.48Whiletheformersetthestageforenormousincreasesinhumannumbersthisrevolutionwillsucceedonlyifitstabilizeshumanpopulationsizereestablishingabalancebetweenpeopleandnaturalsystemonwhichtheydepend.IncontrasttotheIndustrialRevolutionwhichwasbasedonashifttofossilfuelsthisnewtransformationwillbebasedonashiftawayfromfossilfuels. 49Thetwoearlierrevolutionsweredrivenbytechnologicaladvances―thefirstbythediscoveryoffarmingandthesecondbytheinventionofthesteamenginewhichconvertedtheenergyincoalintomechanicalpower.TheEnvironmentalRevolutionwhileitwillobviouslyneednewtechnologieswillbedrivenprimarilybytherestructuringoftheglobaleconomysothatitdoesnotdestroyitsnaturalsupportsystem. ThepaceoftheEnvironmentalRevolutionneedstobefarfasterthanthatofitspredecessors.TheAgriculturalRevolutionbegansome10000yearsagoandtheIndustrialRevolutionhasbeenunderwayforabouttwocenturies.ButiftheEnvironmentalRevolutionistosucceeditmustbecompressedintoafewdecades.ProgressintheAgriculturalRevolutionwasmeasuredalmostexclusivelyinthegrowthinfoodoutputthateventuallyenabledfarmerstoproduceasurplusthatcouldfeedcitydwellers.Similarlyindustrialprogresswasgainedbysuccessinexpandingtheoutputofrawmaterialsandmanufacturedgoods.50TheEnvironmentalRevolutionwillbejudgedbywhetheritcanshifttheworldeconomyintoanenvironmentallysustainabledevelopmentpathonethatleadstogreatereconomicsecurityhealthierlifestylesandaworldwideimprovementinthehumancondition.
Ifafarmerwishestosucceedhemusttrytokeepawidegapbetweenhisconsumptionandhisproduction.Hemuststorealargequantityofgrain________consumingallhisgrainimmediately.Hecancontinuetosupporthimselfandhisfamily________heproducesasurplus.Hemustusethissurplusinthreeways:asseedforsowingasaninsurance________theunpredictableeffectsofbadweatherandasacommoditywhichhemustsellinorderto________oldagriculturalimplementsandobtainchemicalfertilizersto______thesoil.Hemayalsoneedmoneytoconstructirrigation______andimprovehisfarminotherways.Ifnosurplusisavailableafarmercannotbe______.Hemusteithersellsomeofhispropertyor________extrafundsintheformofloans.Naturallyhewilltrytoborrowmoneyatalow________ofinterestbutloansofthiskindarenot________obtainable.
YouareacollegegraduateinLaw.Writealettertoalawofficetoapplyforapositionwhichshouldinclude: 1thepositionofyourapplication 2thereasonofyourinterestinthejob 3yourrelatedknowledgeskillsandexperience. Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyournameattheendoftheletter.UseLiMinginstead.Youdonotneedtowritetheaddress.10points
Ifafarmerwishestosucceedhemusttrytokeepawidegapbetweenhisconsumptionandhisproduction.Hemuststorealargequantityofgrain________consumingallhisgrainimmediately.Hecancontinuetosupporthimselfandhisfamily________heproducesasurplus.Hemustusethissurplusinthreeways:asseedforsowingasaninsurance________theunpredictableeffectsofbadweatherandasacommoditywhichhemustsellinorderto________oldagriculturalimplementsandobtainchemicalfertilizersto______thesoil.Hemayalsoneedmoneytoconstructirrigation______andimprovehisfarminotherways.Ifnosurplusisavailableafarmercannotbe______.Hemusteithersellsomeofhispropertyor________extrafundsintheformofloans.Naturallyhewilltrytoborrowmoneyatalow________ofinterestbutloansofthiskindarenot________obtainable.
Forthreedecadeswe’’veheardendlesslyaboutthevirtuesofaerobicincreasingoxygenconsumptionexercise.MedicalauthoritieshavepraisedrunningandjumpingasthekeytogoodhealthandmillionsofAmericanshavetakentothetreadmill踏车toreaptherewards.Butthestoryischanging.EveryonefromtheAmericanHeartAssociationtothesurgeongeneral’’sofficehasrecentlyembracedstrengthtrainingasacomplementtoaerobics.AndasweightliftinghasgonemainstreamsohastheonceobscurepracticeknownasSuperSlowtraining.Enthusiastsclaimthatbypumpingironatasnail’’space-makingeachreprepeatlast14secondsinsteadoftheusualseven-youcansafelyplaceextraordinarydemandsonyourmusclesandcallforthanextraordinaryresponse.Slowliftingmaynotbetheonlyexerciseyouneedassomeadvocatesbelievebutthebenefitsareoftendramatic. Almostanyonecanhandlethisroutine.Theonlyrequirementsarecompletefocusandatolerancefordeepmuscularburn.Foxeachexercise-legpressbenchpressshoulderpressandsoon-yousetthemachinetoprovideonlymoderateresistance.Butasyoudrawouteachrepdeprivingyourselfofimpetustheweightsoonfeelsunbearable.Defyingtheimpulsetostopyoukeepgoinguntilyoucan’’tcompletearep.Thenyousustainyourvaineffortfor10moresecondswhiletheweightsinksgraduallytowarditscradle.IntenseUncomfortableTotally.Butonceyouembracemusclefailureasthegoaloftheworkoutitcanbecomealmostpleasure. Thegoalisnottoburncalorieswhileyou’’reexercisingbuttomakeyourbodyburnthemallthetime.Runningafewmilesmanymakeyousweatbutitexpendsonly100caloriespermileanditdoesn’’tstimulatemuchboneormuscledevelopment.Strengthtrainingdoesn’’tburnmanycalorieseither.Butwhenyoupushamuscletofailureyousetoffapourofphysiologicalchanges.Asthemusclerecoversoverseveraldaysitwillthicken-andthenewmuscletissuewilldemandsustenance.Bythetimeyouaddthreepoundsofmuscleyourbodyrequiresanextra9000caloriesamonthjusttobreakeven.Holdyourdietsteadyandveryquicklyyouarevaporizingbodyfat. Onemighthavebenefitedfromanystrength-trainingprogram.Butadvocatesinsisttheslowtechniqueissaferandmoreeffectivethantraditionalmethods. AccordingtotheauthorSuperSlowtraining
TowhatextentaretheunemployedfailingintheirdutytosocietytoworkandhowfarhastheStateanobligationtoensurethattheyhaveworktodo Itisbynowincreasinglyrecognizedthatworkersmaybethrownoutofworkbyindustrialforcesbeyondtheircontrolandthattheunemployedareinsomesensepayingthepriceoftheeconomicprogressoftherestofthecommunity.Butconcernwithunemploymentandtheunemployedvariessharply.Theissuesofdutyandresponsibilitywerereopenedandrevitalizedbytheunemploymentscareof1971-2.RisingunemploymentandincreasedsumspaidoutinbenefitstotheworklesshadreawakenedcontroversieswhichhadbeeninactiveduringmostoftheperiodoffulleremploymentsincethewarendedtheDepression.Itlookedasthoughinfuturetherewouldagainbetoolittleworktogoroundsotherewereargumentsabouthowtoproducemoreworkhowtheavailableworkshouldbesharedoutandwhowasresponsibleforunemploymentandtheunemployed. In1972therewerecriticswhosaidthattheState’’sactioninallowingunemploymenttorisewasafaithlessactabreakingofthesocialcontractbetweensocietyandtheworker.Yetinthemainanycontributionbyemployerstounemployment―suchaslayingoffworkersinordertointroducetechnologicalchangesandmaximizeprofits―tendedtobeignored.Anditwastheunemployedwhowereaccusedoffailingtohonourthesocialcontractbynotfulfillingtheirdutytosocietytowork.Inspiteofgeneralconcernatthescaleoftheunemploymentstatisticswhentheunemployedwereconsideredasindividualstheytendedtoattractscornandthreatsofpunishment.Theircapacitiesandmotivationasworkersandtheirvalueasmembersofsocietybecamesuspect.OfallthemythsoftheWelfareStatestoriesofthework-shyandborrowershavebeentheleastwell-foundedonevidenceyettheyhaveprovedthemostpersistent.TheunemployedwereaccusedofbeingresponsiblefortheirownworklessconditionanddoubtswereexpressedabouttheState’’sobligationeithertoprovidethemwiththesecurityofworkortosupportthemthroughSocialSecurity. Underlyingtheargumentsaboutunemploymentandtheunemployedisabasicdisagreementaboutthenatureandmeaningofworkinsociety.TowhatextentcanorshouldworkberegardedasaservicenotonlyperformedbytheworkerforsocietybutalsomadesecurefortheworkerbytheStateandsupportedifnecessaryAndapartfromcasharetheresocialpressuresandsatisfactionswhichcauseindividualstoseekandkeepwork.sothattheworklessneedworkratherthanjustcash Accordingtotheauthorinthe1971-2crisis
Forthreedecadeswe’’veheardendlesslyaboutthevirtuesofaerobicincreasingoxygenconsumptionexercise.MedicalauthoritieshavepraisedrunningandjumpingasthekeytogoodhealthandmillionsofAmericanshavetakentothetreadmill踏车toreaptherewards.Butthestoryischanging.EveryonefromtheAmericanHeartAssociationtothesurgeongeneral’’sofficehasrecentlyembracedstrengthtrainingasacomplementtoaerobics.AndasweightliftinghasgonemainstreamsohastheonceobscurepracticeknownasSuperSlowtraining.Enthusiastsclaimthatbypumpingironatasnail’’space-makingeachreprepeatlast14secondsinsteadoftheusualseven-youcansafelyplaceextraordinarydemandsonyourmusclesandcallforthanextraordinaryresponse.Slowliftingmaynotbetheonlyexerciseyouneedassomeadvocatesbelievebutthebenefitsareoftendramatic. Almostanyonecanhandlethisroutine.Theonlyrequirementsarecompletefocusandatolerancefordeepmuscularburn.Foxeachexercise-legpressbenchpressshoulderpressandsoon-yousetthemachinetoprovideonlymoderateresistance.Butasyoudrawouteachrepdeprivingyourselfofimpetustheweightsoonfeelsunbearable.Defyingtheimpulsetostopyoukeepgoinguntilyoucan’’tcompletearep.Thenyousustainyourvaineffortfor10moresecondswhiletheweightsinksgraduallytowarditscradle.IntenseUncomfortableTotally.Butonceyouembracemusclefailureasthegoaloftheworkoutitcanbecomealmostpleasure. Thegoalisnottoburncalorieswhileyou’’reexercisingbuttomakeyourbodyburnthemallthetime.Runningafewmilesmanymakeyousweatbutitexpendsonly100caloriespermileanditdoesn’’tstimulatemuchboneormuscledevelopment.Strengthtrainingdoesn’’tburnmanycalorieseither.Butwhenyoupushamuscletofailureyousetoffapourofphysiologicalchanges.Asthemusclerecoversoverseveraldaysitwillthicken-andthenewmuscletissuewilldemandsustenance.Bythetimeyouaddthreepoundsofmuscleyourbodyrequiresanextra9000caloriesamonthjusttobreakeven.Holdyourdietsteadyandveryquicklyyouarevaporizingbodyfat. Onemighthavebenefitedfromanystrength-trainingprogram.Butadvocatesinsisttheslowtechniqueissaferandmoreeffectivethantraditionalmethods. Inpracticingslowliftingonehasto
Ifafarmerwishestosucceedhemusttrytokeepawidegapbetweenhisconsumptionandhisproduction.Hemuststorealargequantityofgrain________consumingallhisgrainimmediately.Hecancontinuetosupporthimselfandhisfamily________heproducesasurplus.Hemustusethissurplusinthreeways:asseedforsowingasaninsurance________theunpredictableeffectsofbadweatherandasacommoditywhichhemustsellinorderto________oldagriculturalimplementsandobtainchemicalfertilizersto______thesoil.Hemayalsoneedmoneytoconstructirrigation______andimprovehisfarminotherways.Ifnosurplusisavailableafarmercannotbe______.Hemusteithersellsomeofhispropertyor________extrafundsintheformofloans.Naturallyhewilltrytoborrowmoneyatalow________ofinterestbutloansofthiskindarenot________obtainable.
Inthelasthalfofthenineteenthcenturycapitalandlabourwereenlargingandperfectingtheirrivalorganizationsonmodemlines.Manyanoldfirmwasreplacedbyalimitedliabilitycompanywithabureaucracyofsalariedmanagers.Thechangemetthetechnicalrequirementsofthenewagebyengagingalargeprofessionalelementandpreventedthedeclineinefficiencythatsocommonlyspoiledthefortunesoffamilyfirmsinthesecondandthirdgenerationaftertheenergeticfounders.Itwasmoreoverastepawayfromindividualinitiativetowardscollectivismandmunicipalandstate-ownedbusiness.Therailwaycompaniesthoughstillprivatebusinessmanagedforthebenefitofshareholderswereveryunlikeoldfamilybusiness.Atthesametimethegreatmunicipalitieswentintobusinesstosupplylightingtramsandotherservicestothetaxpayers. Thegrowthofthelimitedliabilitycompanyandmunicipalbusinesshadimportantconsequences.Suchlargeimpersonalmanipulationofcapitalandindustrygreatlyincreasedthenumbersandimportanceofshareholdersasaclassanelementinnationalliferepresentingirresponsiblewealthdetachedfromthelandandthedutiesofthelandowners;andalmostequallydetachedfromtheresponsiblemanagementofbusiness.AllthroughthenineteenthcenturyAmericaAfricaIndiaAustraliaandpartsofEuropewerebeingdevelopedbyBritishcapitalandBritishshareholderswerethusenrichedbytheworld’’smovementtowardsindustrialisation.TownslikeBournemouthandEastbournespranguptohouselargecomfortableclasseswhohadretiredontheirincomesandwhohadnorelationtotherestofthecommunityexceptthatofdrawingdividendsandoccasionallyattendingashareholders’’meetingtodictatetheirorderstothemanagement.OntheotherhandshareholdingmeantleisureandfreedomwhichwasusedbymanyofthelaterVictoriansforthehighestpurposeofagreatcivilization. Theshareholdersassuchhadnoknowledgeofthelivesthoughtsorneedsoftheworkmenemployedbythecompanyinwhichheheldsharesandhisinfluenceontherelationsofcapitalandlabourwasnotgood.Thepaidmanageractingforthecompanywasinmoredirectrelationwiththemenandtheirdemandsbutevenhehadseldomthatfamiliarpersonalknowledgeoftheworkmenwhichtheemployerhadoftenhadunderthemorepatriarchalsystemoftheoldfamilybusinessnowpassingaway.Indeedthemeresizeofoperationsandthenumbersofworkmeninvolvedrenderedsuchpersonalrelationsimpossible.Fortunatelyhowevertheincreasingpowerandorganizationofthetradeunionsatleastinallskilledtradesenabledtheworkmentomeetonequaltermsthemanagersofthecompanieswhoemployedthem.Thecrueldisciplineofthestrikeandlockouttaughtthetwopartiestorespecteachother’’sstrengthandunderstandthevalueoffairnegotiation. AccordingtothepassageallofthefollowingaretrueEXCEPTthat_________________.
TowhatextentaretheunemployedfailingintheirdutytosocietytoworkandhowfarhastheStateanobligationtoensurethattheyhaveworktodo Itisbynowincreasinglyrecognizedthatworkersmaybethrownoutofworkbyindustrialforcesbeyondtheircontrolandthattheunemployedareinsomesensepayingthepriceoftheeconomicprogressoftherestofthecommunity.Butconcernwithunemploymentandtheunemployedvariessharply.Theissuesofdutyandresponsibilitywerereopenedandrevitalizedbytheunemploymentscareof1971-2.RisingunemploymentandincreasedsumspaidoutinbenefitstotheworklesshadreawakenedcontroversieswhichhadbeeninactiveduringmostoftheperiodoffulleremploymentsincethewarendedtheDepression.Itlookedasthoughinfuturetherewouldagainbetoolittleworktogoroundsotherewereargumentsabouthowtoproducemoreworkhowtheavailableworkshouldbesharedoutandwhowasresponsibleforunemploymentandtheunemployed. In1972therewerecriticswhosaidthattheState’’sactioninallowingunemploymenttorisewasafaithlessactabreakingofthesocialcontractbetweensocietyandtheworker.Yetinthemainanycontributionbyemployerstounemployment―suchaslayingoffworkersinordertointroducetechnologicalchangesandmaximizeprofits―tendedtobeignored.Anditwastheunemployedwhowereaccusedoffailingtohonourthesocialcontractbynotfulfillingtheirdutytosocietytowork.Inspiteofgeneralconcernatthescaleoftheunemploymentstatisticswhentheunemployedwereconsideredasindividualstheytendedtoattractscornandthreatsofpunishment.Theircapacitiesandmotivationasworkersandtheirvalueasmembersofsocietybecamesuspect.OfallthemythsoftheWelfareStatestoriesofthework-shyandborrowershavebeentheleastwell-foundedonevidenceyettheyhaveprovedthemostpersistent.TheunemployedwereaccusedofbeingresponsiblefortheirownworklessconditionanddoubtswereexpressedabouttheState’’sobligationeithertoprovidethemwiththesecurityofworkortosupportthemthroughSocialSecurity. Underlyingtheargumentsaboutunemploymentandtheunemployedisabasicdisagreementaboutthenatureandmeaningofworkinsociety.TowhatextentcanorshouldworkberegardedasaservicenotonlyperformedbytheworkerforsocietybutalsomadesecurefortheworkerbytheStateandsupportedifnecessaryAndapartfromcasharetheresocialpressuresandsatisfactionswhichcauseindividualstoseekandkeepwork.sothattheworklessneedworkratherthanjustcash Thebasicdisagreementabouttheessenceofworkrestsonwhetherornot
Ourworldofthemid-1990sfacespotentiallyburstingchange.Thequestionisinwhatdirectionwillittakeus46Willthechangecomefromworldwideinitiativesthatreversethedegradationoftheplanetandrestorehopeforthefutureorwillitcomefromcontinuingenvironmentaldeteriorationthatleadstoeconomicdeclineandsocialinstability Thereisnoprecedentfortherapidsubstantialchangeweneedtomake.47Buildinganenvironmentallysustainablefuturedependsonrestructuringtheglobaleconomymajorshiftsinhumanreproductivebehavioranddramaticchangesinvaluesandlifestyles.Doingallthisquicklyaddsuptoarevolutionthatisdrivenanddefinedbytheneedtorestoretheearth’’senvironmentalsystems.IfthisEnvironmentalRevolutionsucceedsitwillrankwiththeAgriculturalandIndustrialRevolutionsasoneofthegreateconomicandsocialtransformationsinhumanhistory. LiketheAgriculturalRevolutionitwilldramaticallyalterpopulationtrends.48Whiletheformersetthestageforenormousincreasesinhumannumbersthisrevolutionwillsucceedonlyifitstabilizeshumanpopulationsizereestablishingabalancebetweenpeopleandnaturalsystemonwhichtheydepend.IncontrasttotheIndustrialRevolutionwhichwasbasedonashifttofossilfuelsthisnewtransformationwillbebasedonashiftawayfromfossilfuels. 49Thetwoearlierrevolutionsweredrivenbytechnologicaladvances―thefirstbythediscoveryoffarmingandthesecondbytheinventionofthesteamenginewhichconvertedtheenergyincoalintomechanicalpower.TheEnvironmentalRevolutionwhileitwillobviouslyneednewtechnologieswillbedrivenprimarilybytherestructuringoftheglobaleconomysothatitdoesnotdestroyitsnaturalsupportsystem. ThepaceoftheEnvironmentalRevolutionneedstobefarfasterthanthatofitspredecessors.TheAgriculturalRevolutionbegansome10000yearsagoandtheIndustrialRevolutionhasbeenunderwayforabouttwocenturies.ButiftheEnvironmentalRevolutionistosucceeditmustbecompressedintoafewdecades.ProgressintheAgriculturalRevolutionwasmeasuredalmostexclusivelyinthegrowthinfoodoutputthateventuallyenabledfarmerstoproduceasurplusthatcouldfeedcitydwellers.Similarlyindustrialprogresswasgainedbysuccessinexpandingtheoutputofrawmaterialsandmanufacturedgoods.50TheEnvironmentalRevolutionwillbejudgedbywhetheritcanshifttheworldeconomyintoanenvironmentallysustainabledevelopmentpathonethatleadstogreatereconomicsecurityhealthierlifestylesandaworldwideimprovementinthehumancondition.
TowhatextentaretheunemployedfailingintheirdutytosocietytoworkandhowfarhastheStateanobligationtoensurethattheyhaveworktodo Itisbynowincreasinglyrecognizedthatworkersmaybethrownoutofworkbyindustrialforcesbeyondtheircontrolandthattheunemployedareinsomesensepayingthepriceoftheeconomicprogressoftherestofthecommunity.Butconcernwithunemploymentandtheunemployedvariessharply.Theissuesofdutyandresponsibilitywerereopenedandrevitalizedbytheunemploymentscareof1971-2.RisingunemploymentandincreasedsumspaidoutinbenefitstotheworklesshadreawakenedcontroversieswhichhadbeeninactiveduringmostoftheperiodoffulleremploymentsincethewarendedtheDepression.Itlookedasthoughinfuturetherewouldagainbetoolittleworktogoroundsotherewereargumentsabouthowtoproducemoreworkhowtheavailableworkshouldbesharedoutandwhowasresponsibleforunemploymentandtheunemployed. In1972therewerecriticswhosaidthattheState’’sactioninallowingunemploymenttorisewasafaithlessactabreakingofthesocialcontractbetweensocietyandtheworker.Yetinthemainanycontributionbyemployerstounemployment―suchaslayingoffworkersinordertointroducetechnologicalchangesandmaximizeprofits―tendedtobeignored.Anditwastheunemployedwhowereaccusedoffailingtohonourthesocialcontractbynotfulfillingtheirdutytosocietytowork.Inspiteofgeneralconcernatthescaleoftheunemploymentstatisticswhentheunemployedwereconsideredasindividualstheytendedtoattractscornandthreatsofpunishment.Theircapacitiesandmotivationasworkersandtheirvalueasmembersofsocietybecamesuspect.OfallthemythsoftheWelfareStatestoriesofthework-shyandborrowershavebeentheleastwell-foundedonevidenceyettheyhaveprovedthemostpersistent.TheunemployedwereaccusedofbeingresponsiblefortheirownworklessconditionanddoubtswereexpressedabouttheState’’sobligationeithertoprovidethemwiththesecurityofworkortosupportthemthroughSocialSecurity. Underlyingtheargumentsaboutunemploymentandtheunemployedisabasicdisagreementaboutthenatureandmeaningofworkinsociety.TowhatextentcanorshouldworkberegardedasaservicenotonlyperformedbytheworkerforsocietybutalsomadesecurefortheworkerbytheStateandsupportedifnecessaryAndapartfromcasharetheresocialpressuresandsatisfactionswhichcauseindividualstoseekandkeepwork.sothattheworklessneedworkratherthanjustcash Itistheauthor’’sbeliefthat
Ifafarmerwishestosucceedhemusttrytokeepawidegapbetweenhisconsumptionandhisproduction.Hemuststorealargequantityofgrain________consumingallhisgrainimmediately.Hecancontinuetosupporthimselfandhisfamily________heproducesasurplus.Hemustusethissurplusinthreeways:asseedforsowingasaninsurance________theunpredictableeffectsofbadweatherandasacommoditywhichhemustsellinorderto________oldagriculturalimplementsandobtainchemicalfertilizersto______thesoil.Hemayalsoneedmoneytoconstructirrigation______andimprovehisfarminotherways.Ifnosurplusisavailableafarmercannotbe______.Hemusteithersellsomeofhispropertyor________extrafundsintheformofloans.Naturallyhewilltrytoborrowmoneyatalow________ofinterestbutloansofthiskindarenot________obtainable.
Inthelasthalfofthenineteenthcenturycapitalandlabourwereenlargingandperfectingtheirrivalorganizationsonmodemlines.Manyanoldfirmwasreplacedbyalimitedliabilitycompanywithabureaucracyofsalariedmanagers.Thechangemetthetechnicalrequirementsofthenewagebyengagingalargeprofessionalelementandpreventedthedeclineinefficiencythatsocommonlyspoiledthefortunesoffamilyfirmsinthesecondandthirdgenerationaftertheenergeticfounders.Itwasmoreoverastepawayfromindividualinitiativetowardscollectivismandmunicipalandstate-ownedbusiness.Therailwaycompaniesthoughstillprivatebusinessmanagedforthebenefitofshareholderswereveryunlikeoldfamilybusiness.Atthesametimethegreatmunicipalitieswentintobusinesstosupplylightingtramsandotherservicestothetaxpayers. Thegrowthofthelimitedliabilitycompanyandmunicipalbusinesshadimportantconsequences.Suchlargeimpersonalmanipulationofcapitalandindustrygreatlyincreasedthenumbersandimportanceofshareholdersasaclassanelementinnationalliferepresentingirresponsiblewealthdetachedfromthelandandthedutiesofthelandowners;andalmostequallydetachedfromtheresponsiblemanagementofbusiness.AllthroughthenineteenthcenturyAmericaAfricaIndiaAustraliaandpartsofEuropewerebeingdevelopedbyBritishcapitalandBritishshareholderswerethusenrichedbytheworld’’smovementtowardsindustrialisation.TownslikeBournemouthandEastbournespranguptohouselargecomfortableclasseswhohadretiredontheirincomesandwhohadnorelationtotherestofthecommunityexceptthatofdrawingdividendsandoccasionallyattendingashareholders’’meetingtodictatetheirorderstothemanagement.OntheotherhandshareholdingmeantleisureandfreedomwhichwasusedbymanyofthelaterVictoriansforthehighestpurposeofagreatcivilization. Theshareholdersassuchhadnoknowledgeofthelivesthoughtsorneedsoftheworkmenemployedbythecompanyinwhichheheldsharesandhisinfluenceontherelationsofcapitalandlabourwasnotgood.Thepaidmanageractingforthecompanywasinmoredirectrelationwiththemenandtheirdemandsbutevenhehadseldomthatfamiliarpersonalknowledgeoftheworkmenwhichtheemployerhadoftenhadunderthemorepatriarchalsystemoftheoldfamilybusinessnowpassingaway.Indeedthemeresizeofoperationsandthenumbersofworkmeninvolvedrenderedsuchpersonalrelationsimpossible.Fortunatelyhowevertheincreasingpowerandorganizationofthetradeunionsatleastinallskilledtradesenabledtheworkmentomeetonequaltermsthemanagersofthecompanieswhoemployedthem.Thecrueldisciplineofthestrikeandlockouttaughtthetwopartiestorespecteachother’’sstrengthandunderstandthevalueoffairnegotiation. It’’strueoftheoldfamilyfirmsthat_________________.
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