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以下哪种疾病不是慢性呼吸衰竭的病因
重度肺结核
肺间质纤维化
尘肺
胸廓畸形
严重感染
哪种疾病不是慢性呼吸衰竭的病因
重度肺结核
肺间质纤维化
胸廓畸形
尘肺
严重感染
下列哪种疾病不是慢性呼吸衰竭的病因
重度肺结核
肺间质纤维化
肺尘埃沉着病(尘肺)
胸廓畸形
严重感染
以下哪种疾病不是慢性呼吸衰竭的病因
重度肺结核
肺间质纤维化
尘肺
胸廓畸形
严重感染(59/2003)
以下哪种疾病不是慢性呼吸衰竭的病因
重度肺结核
肺间质纤维化
尘肺
胸廓畸形
严重感染
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[A]Demographicdeclineworriespeoplebecauseitisbelievedtogohandinhandwitheconomicdecline.Attheextremesitmaywellbetheresultofeconomicfactors:pessimismmaydepressthebirthrateandpushupratesofsuicideandalcoholism.Butinthemaindemographicdeclineistheconsequenceofthelowfertilitythatgenerallygoeswithgrowingprosperity.InJapanforinstancebirthratesfellbelowthereplacementrateof2.1childrenperwomaninthemid-1970sandhavebeenparticularlylowinthepast15years. [B]Duringthesecondhalfofthe20thcenturytheglobalpopulationexplosionwasthebigdemographicannoyance.RobertMcNamarapresidentoftheWorldBankinthe1970scomparedthethreatofunmanageablepopulationpressureswiththedangerofnuclearwar.Nowthatworryhasevaporatedandthiscenturyisfrighteningitselfwiththeoppositefear:theonsetofdemographicdecline. [C]GovernmentshatetheideaofashrinkingpopulationbecausetheabsolutesizeofGDPmattersforgreat-powerstatus.Thebiggertheeconomythebiggerthemilitarythegreaterthegeopoliticalclout:annualGDPestimateswerefirstintroducedinAmericainthe1940saspartofitswareffort.Companiesworrytoo:theydonotliketheideaoftheirdomesticmarketsshrinking.Peopleshouldnotmindthough.WhatmattersforeconomicwelfareisGDPperperson. [D]Peoplelovetoworry--maybeit’sasymptomofageingpopulations--butthegloomsurroundingpopulationdeclinesmissesthemainpoint.Thenewdemographicsthatarecausingpopulationstoageandtoshrinkaresomethingtocelebrate.Humanitywasoncecaughtinthetrapofhighfertilityandhighmortality.Nowithasescapedintothefreedomoflowfertilityandlowmortality.Women’scontroloverthenumberofchildrentheyhaveisanunqualifiedgood--asistheaverageperson’senjoymentinrichcountriesoftenmoreyearsoflifethantheyhadin1960.Politiciansmayfearthedeclineoftheirnations’economicpowerbutpeopleshouldcelebratethenewdemographicsasheraldingagoldenage. [E]TheshrinkageofRussiaandeasternEuropeisfamiliarthoughnotperhapsthescaleofit:Russia’spopulationisexpectedtofallby22%between2005and2050Ukraine’sbyastaggering43%.Nowthephenomenoniscreepingintotherichworld:JapanhasstartedtoshrinkandotherssuchasItalyandGermanywillsoonfollow.EvenChina’spopulationwillbedecliningbytheearly2030saccordingtotheUNwhichprojectsthatby2050populationswillbelowerthantheyaretodayin50countries. [F]ButifdemographicdeclineisnotgenerallyaconsequenceofeconomicdeclinesurelyitmustbeacauseInacrudesenseyes.AspopulationsshrinkGDPgrowthwillslow.Someeconomiesmayevenstarttoshrinktoo.Theresultwillbealossofeconomicinfluence. [G]ThecrucialquestionisthereforewhattheeffectofdemographicdeclineisonthegrowthofGDPperperson.Thebadnewsisthatthislookslikelytoslowbecauseworking-agepopulationsWilldeclinemorerapidlythanoverallpopulations.Yetthisneednothappen.ProductivitygrowthmaykeepupgrowthinGDPperperson:aslabourbecomesscarcerandpressuretointroducenewtechnologiestoboostworkers’efficiencyincreasessotheproductivityoflabourmayrisefaster.Anywayretirementagescanbeliftedtoincreasethesupplyoflabourevenwhenthepopulationisdeclining. 41
Cleverrichorboth--almosteverycountryintheworldhassomesortofprogrammetoattractdesirablemigrants.Theonlyexceptionsare"weirdplaceslikeBhutan"saysChristianKalinofHenley&Partnerswhichspecializesinfixingvisasandpassportsforglobe-trotters.Competitionisfierceandaswithmostthingsthatlowersthepriceandincreaseschoice.Britainhastwoprogrammesonefortherich--whohavetoinvest￡750000$1.36minactivelytradedsecurities--andonemuchlargerfortalentedforeigners. Bothhaveworkedwell.UnlikesomeothercountriesBritaindoesnotmakeapplicantsfindajobfirst:withgoodqualificationstheycanjustturnupandlookforwork.ThathelpskeepBritain’seconomyflexibleandcompetitive.Butnowabureaucraticsnagisthreateningthescheme. Theproblemcomeswithanyonewantingtoconverthisvisainto"indefiniteleavetoremain"Britain’sequivalentofAmerica’sGreenCard.Thisnormallyrequiresfouryears’continuousresidenceinBritain.AfterafurtheryearitnormallyleadstoBritishcitizenship. Thelawdefinescontinuousresidencesensibly.Businesstripsandholidaysdon’tcountiftheapplicant’smainhomeisinBritain.Asaruleofthumbanaverageof90daysabroadwasallowedeachyear.ButunpublishedguidelinesseenbyTheEconomistaretougher:theysaythat"noneoftheabsencesabroadshouldbeofmorethanthreemonthsandtheymustnotamounttomorethansixmonthsinall."Overthefouryearsneededtoqualitythataveragesonlysixweeksayear. Formanyjet-settersthisrestrictionisacareer-buster.Sixweeksabroadbarelycoversholidaysletalonebusinesstravel.AlexeiSidneyaRussianconsultanthastoturndownimportantjobsbecausehecannotaffordanymoredaysabroad.Ifapplicantstravel"toomuch"theirchildrenrisklosingtherighttoremaininBritain. TheHomeOfficeinsiststhattheruleshavenotchangedsince2001.ThatwouldconfirmMr.Gherson’ssuspicionthatthenewpolicyhascomeinbyaccidentprobablyasaresultofzealorcarelessnessbymid-rankingofficials.Theirattitudeisatoddswiththestanceofthegovernmentwhichhasbeentryingforyearstomakethesystemmoreuser-friendlyfortheworld’selite.ItevenmovedprocessingofbusinessresidencycasesfromahugeofficeinCroydonnotoriousforitsslownessandhostilitytowould-beimmigrantstoanewoutfitinSheffield. ButlawyerssuchasMrKalinareinnodoubtoftheriskBritainisrunning.Americahesaysisalreadylosingoutintheglobaltalentmarketbecauseofits"painfulandhumiliating"immigrationprocedures.IfBritain’srulesstaytighthesaysforeignerswillgoelsewhere.LikelybeneficiariesareIrelandandAustriaEuropeanUnioncountrieswhoseresidencyvisasandpassportsconferthesameconvenienceasBritishoneswithlesshassle. Accordingtothe4thparagraphhowlongcanonestayaboard
WhenacustomerclaimedtohavefoundaseveredfingerinabowlofchilliservedataWendy’sfast-foodfranchiseinCaliforniathechain’ssalesfellbyhalfintheSanJoséareawheretheincidentwasreported.Wendy’sbrandandreputationwereatriskuntiltheclaimwasexposedasahoaxinlateAprilandthecompanyoperatorofAmerica’sthird-biggesthamburgerchainwasvindicated. YetthesharepriceofWendy’sInternationaltheparentcompanyrosesteadilythroughMarchandAprildespitethefingerfuroreanddowngradesfromanalysts.OnereasonwasheavybuyingbyhedgefundsledbyPershingSquareCapital.ThisweekPershingmadeitsintentionspublicsayingthatitwasworriedbymarketrumoursthatWendy’smightsoonbuymorefast-foodbrandsandarguingthatthefirmshouldbesellingassetsinstead.Pershing’sapproachindicatesrisingpressureonAmericanrestaurantcompaniestoperformatatimewhentheindustry’sgrowthprospectslookincreasinglytough. Thehitoncustomers’walletsfromhigherpetrolpricesandrisinginterestrateswillprobablymeanthatyear-on-yearsalesgrowthacrosstheAmericanrestaurantindustryslowstojust1%bythefourthquarterof2005downfromafive-yearhistoricaverageof5.6%sayUBSaninvestmentbankandGlobalInsightaforecastinggroup.LookingfurtheraheadsaysUBS’sDavidPalmertheindustrymayhavetostoprelyingonmostofthelong-termtrendsthatwerebehindmuchofitsrecentgrowth. Three-quartersofAmericansalreadylivewithinthreemilesofaMcDonald’srestaurantleavinglittlescopeforgreen-fieldgrowth.[ObesityisagrowingissueinAmericaandwithitcomethethreatofliabilitylawsuitsagainstbigrestaurantchainsandperhapslegallimitsonadvertising.]ThisweekAmerica’sbiggestfoodtradegrouptheGroceryManufacturers’Associationwassaidtobepreparingtougherguidelinesonthemarketingoffoodtochildreninthehopeofstavingoffstatutorycontrols.Homecookingmayalsobemakingacomebackhelpedbytwofactors.ThepercentageofwomenjoiningAmerica’sworkforcemayhavepeakedandsupermarketchainssuchasWal-Marthavebeenforcingdownretailfoodprices. ExpansionoverseasisoneoptionforAmericanrestaurantchains.BurgerKingtheprivatelyownednumbertwohamburgerchainopeneditsfirstoutletinChinalastmonthapparentlyaimingtomaintainstronggrowthaheadofaninitialpublicofferingnextyear.McDonald’shas600outletsinChinaandplans400more.Butathomethefutureseemstoholdonlyanevermorecompetitiveandcost-consciousrestaurantindustry.Fast-foodchainsaretryingtopoachcustomersfrom"casualdining"chainssuchasApplebee’sNeighborhoodGrillwhilethosechainsaresqueezingoutindependentrestaurantsunabletocompeteoncostorinmarketingclout.Businessconditionsnotseveredfingersaretherealthreattotheweakerfirmsintherestaurantbusiness. HowcanAmericanrestaurantchainsacceleratetheirbusiness
Formaleconomicforecastingisusuallybasedona1theoryastohowtheeconomyworks.Sometheoriesarecomplicatedandtheirapplicationrequiresanelaborate2ofcauseandeffect.Othersarerelativelysimple3mostdevelopmentsintheeconomytooneortwobasicfactors.Manyeconomistsforexamplebelievethatchangesinthesupplyofmoney4therateofgrowthofgeneralbusinessactivity.Others5acentralroletoinvestmentinnewfacilities--housingindustrialplantshighwaysandsoforth.IntheUnitedStateswhereconsumers6suchalargeshareofeconomicactivitysomeeconomybelievethatconsumerdecisionsto7orsaveprovidetheprincipal8tothefuturecourseoftheentireeconomy.Obviouslythetheorythataforecasterappliesisof9importancetotheforecastingprocess;it10hislineofinvestigationthestatisticshewillregardasmostimportantandmanyofthetechniqueshewillapply. Althougheconomictheorymaydeterminethegeneral11ofaforecastjudgmentalsooftenplaysanimportantrole.Aforecastermaydecidethatthecircumstancesofthemomentare12andthataforecastproducedbythe13statisticalmethodsshouldbemodifiedtotakeaccountofspecialcurrentcircumstances.ThisisparticularlynecessarywhensomeeventoutsidetheUsualrunofeconomicactivityhasana14economiceffect.Forexampleforecastsof1987economicactivityintheUnitedStatesweremoreaccuratewhentheanalystcorrectlyforesawthattheexchangevalueofthedollarwould15sharplyduringtheyearthatconsumerspendingwouldslackenandthat16rateswouldriseonlymoderately.Noneoftheseconclusionsfollowed17purelyeconomicanalysis;theyallrequiredjudgmentastofuturedecisions18aneconomistmaydecidetoadjustaneconomicforecastthatwasmadebytraditionalmethodstotakeaccountofotherunique19;hemayforexampledecidethatconsumerswill20theirspendingpatternsbecauseofspecialcircumstancessuchasrisingpriceofimportsorfearofthreatenedshortages. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.1
WhenacustomerclaimedtohavefoundaseveredfingerinabowlofchilliservedataWendy’sfast-foodfranchiseinCaliforniathechain’ssalesfellbyhalfintheSanJoséareawheretheincidentwasreported.Wendy’sbrandandreputationwereatriskuntiltheclaimwasexposedasahoaxinlateAprilandthecompanyoperatorofAmerica’sthird-biggesthamburgerchainwasvindicated. YetthesharepriceofWendy’sInternationaltheparentcompanyrosesteadilythroughMarchandAprildespitethefingerfuroreanddowngradesfromanalysts.OnereasonwasheavybuyingbyhedgefundsledbyPershingSquareCapital.ThisweekPershingmadeitsintentionspublicsayingthatitwasworriedbymarketrumoursthatWendy’smightsoonbuymorefast-foodbrandsandarguingthatthefirmshouldbesellingassetsinstead.Pershing’sapproachindicatesrisingpressureonAmericanrestaurantcompaniestoperformatatimewhentheindustry’sgrowthprospectslookincreasinglytough. Thehitoncustomers’walletsfromhigherpetrolpricesandrisinginterestrateswillprobablymeanthatyear-on-yearsalesgrowthacrosstheAmericanrestaurantindustryslowstojust1%bythefourthquarterof2005downfromafive-yearhistoricaverageof5.6%sayUBSaninvestmentbankandGlobalInsightaforecastinggroup.LookingfurtheraheadsaysUBS’sDavidPalmertheindustrymayhavetostoprelyingonmostofthelong-termtrendsthatwerebehindmuchofitsrecentgrowth. Three-quartersofAmericansalreadylivewithinthreemilesofaMcDonald’srestaurantleavinglittlescopeforgreen-fieldgrowth.[ObesityisagrowingissueinAmericaandwithitcomethethreatofliabilitylawsuitsagainstbigrestaurantchainsandperhapslegallimitsonadvertising.]ThisweekAmerica’sbiggestfoodtradegrouptheGroceryManufacturers’Associationwassaidtobepreparingtougherguidelinesonthemarketingoffoodtochildreninthehopeofstavingoffstatutorycontrols.Homecookingmayalsobemakingacomebackhelpedbytwofactors.ThepercentageofwomenjoiningAmerica’sworkforcemayhavepeakedandsupermarketchainssuchasWal-Marthavebeenforcingdownretailfoodprices. ExpansionoverseasisoneoptionforAmericanrestaurantchains.BurgerKingtheprivatelyownednumbertwohamburgerchainopeneditsfirstoutletinChinalastmonthapparentlyaimingtomaintainstronggrowthaheadofaninitialpublicofferingnextyear.McDonald’shas600outletsinChinaandplans400more.Butathomethefutureseemstoholdonlyanevermorecompetitiveandcost-consciousrestaurantindustry.Fast-foodchainsaretryingtopoachcustomersfrom"casualdining"chainssuchasApplebee’sNeighborhoodGrillwhilethosechainsaresqueezingoutindependentrestaurantsunabletocompeteoncostorinmarketingclout.Businessconditionsnotseveredfingersaretherealthreattotheweakerfirmsintherestaurantbusiness. WhydidthesharepriceofWendy’sInternationalrisesteadilyaftertheseveredfingerincident
Itisdifficulttoseehowonecanteachifoneisnotlearning.Buttherearesomedistinctionstobemadehere.Torelyonlastyear’snotesor--evenworse--one’slastyear’smemoryasifthatwouldalwaysbeanadequatebasisforpassingonknowledgeistomistakewhathumanknowledgeis.46.Andsotheassimilationofbooksthereadingofarticlesthepursuitofmattersofconcernwillbecrucialtoone’sabilitytointroduceanddevelopastudent’sabilitytoparticipateinaspecificuniverseofdiscourse. Researchmightbethoughttobeanothermatterespeciallyifitisdefinedasaddingtothesumtotalofhumanknowledge.47.Theexpansionofhighereducationwhichhastakenplaceandmoreparticularlytheexpansionwhichislikelytotakeplacesimplymakesitunlikelythatallthosewhoarelegitimatelyinvolvedintheteachingandwhofulfilltheirresponsibilitiesutterlyinthatregardarethemselvesallcapableofaddinganythingworthhavingtothesumtotalofhumanknowledge.Itseemsbestthereforenottoassumeitandnottopresumewhatinprincipleisundeliverable.Ontheotherhandaninstitutionofhighereducationwhichisnotcommittedasacommunitytoresearchwillbedefective.48.Thelimitofwhatweknowmustbeapparentthemeansandopportunitiesofinquirymustbeunderstoodthevalueofresearchsharedevenifitisonlysomemembersofadepartmentafacultyoraninstitutionwhoareactuallyengagedinit.Scholarshipisforall;researchforthosewhoaremostadept.49.Ofcourseapropercelebrationoftheroleofteachingandtheartoftheteacherwillhelptoputfighttheveryseriousdisparityofesteemwhichisaffectingourjudgmentinthisarea. Butallthishasimplicationsforstaffdevelopment.Thedistributionofresourcesbytheinstitutionwillbeajudgmentonitsmoralperspective.Sotheidentificationandsupportofwaysinwhichteachingcanbeimprovedwillbeasimportantasthedevelopmentofresearchinthelifeofanacademiccommunity.50.Somethingsignificantisdonebythesupportofscholarshipbyfinancingattendanceatconferences;butattentiontoteachingstylesandlearningstrategiesthroughcoursesdiscussionvisitinglecturesschoolsmayallbeasimportant. Ofcourseapropercelebrationoftheroleofteachingandtheartoftheteacherwillhelptoputfighttheveryseriousdisparityofesteemwhichisaffectingourjudgmentinthisarea.
Formaleconomicforecastingisusuallybasedona1theoryastohowtheeconomyworks.Sometheoriesarecomplicatedandtheirapplicationrequiresanelaborate2ofcauseandeffect.Othersarerelativelysimple3mostdevelopmentsintheeconomytooneortwobasicfactors.Manyeconomistsforexamplebelievethatchangesinthesupplyofmoney4therateofgrowthofgeneralbusinessactivity.Others5acentralroletoinvestmentinnewfacilities--housingindustrialplantshighwaysandsoforth.IntheUnitedStateswhereconsumers6suchalargeshareofeconomicactivitysomeeconomybelievethatconsumerdecisionsto7orsaveprovidetheprincipal8tothefuturecourseoftheentireeconomy.Obviouslythetheorythataforecasterappliesisof9importancetotheforecastingprocess;it10hislineofinvestigationthestatisticshewillregardasmostimportantandmanyofthetechniqueshewillapply. Althougheconomictheorymaydeterminethegeneral11ofaforecastjudgmentalsooftenplaysanimportantrole.Aforecastermaydecidethatthecircumstancesofthemomentare12andthataforecastproducedbythe13statisticalmethodsshouldbemodifiedtotakeaccountofspecialcurrentcircumstances.ThisisparticularlynecessarywhensomeeventoutsidetheUsualrunofeconomicactivityhasana14economiceffect.Forexampleforecastsof1987economicactivityintheUnitedStatesweremoreaccuratewhentheanalystcorrectlyforesawthattheexchangevalueofthedollarwould15sharplyduringtheyearthatconsumerspendingwouldslackenandthat16rateswouldriseonlymoderately.Noneoftheseconclusionsfollowed17purelyeconomicanalysis;theyallrequiredjudgmentastofuturedecisions18aneconomistmaydecidetoadjustaneconomicforecastthatwasmadebytraditionalmethodstotakeaccountofotherunique19;hemayforexampledecidethatconsumerswill20theirspendingpatternsbecauseofspecialcircumstancessuchasrisingpriceofimportsorfearofthreatenedshortages. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.13
甲乙丙三人共谋犯罪一天三人拦截了一辆出租车并对出租车司机丁使用暴力强行抢走其随身携带的少量现金和一张银行借记卡甲乙丙逼迫丁说出密码之后带丁去附近的自动取款机上取钱取钱时发现密码不对又对丁进行殴打之后丁为了避免遭受更大的伤害说出了正确的密码甲乙丙三人取出现金5000元 试分析 本案中应该如何对甲乙丙三人的行为定性
[A]Demographicdeclineworriespeoplebecauseitisbelievedtogohandinhandwitheconomicdecline.Attheextremesitmaywellbetheresultofeconomicfactors:pessimismmaydepressthebirthrateandpushupratesofsuicideandalcoholism.Butinthemaindemographicdeclineistheconsequenceofthelowfertilitythatgenerallygoeswithgrowingprosperity.InJapanforinstancebirthratesfellbelowthereplacementrateof2.1childrenperwomaninthemid-1970sandhavebeenparticularlylowinthepast15years. [B]Duringthesecondhalfofthe20thcenturytheglobalpopulationexplosionwasthebigdemographicannoyance.RobertMcNamarapresidentoftheWorldBankinthe1970scomparedthethreatofunmanageablepopulationpressureswiththedangerofnuclearwar.Nowthatworryhasevaporatedandthiscenturyisfrighteningitselfwiththeoppositefear:theonsetofdemographicdecline. [C]GovernmentshatetheideaofashrinkingpopulationbecausetheabsolutesizeofGDPmattersforgreat-powerstatus.Thebiggertheeconomythebiggerthemilitarythegreaterthegeopoliticalclout:annualGDPestimateswerefirstintroducedinAmericainthe1940saspartofitswareffort.Companiesworrytoo:theydonotliketheideaoftheirdomesticmarketsshrinking.Peopleshouldnotmindthough.WhatmattersforeconomicwelfareisGDPperperson. [D]Peoplelovetoworry--maybeit’sasymptomofageingpopulations--butthegloomsurroundingpopulationdeclinesmissesthemainpoint.Thenewdemographicsthatarecausingpopulationstoageandtoshrinkaresomethingtocelebrate.Humanitywasoncecaughtinthetrapofhighfertilityandhighmortality.Nowithasescapedintothefreedomoflowfertilityandlowmortality.Women’scontroloverthenumberofchildrentheyhaveisanunqualifiedgood--asistheaverageperson’senjoymentinrichcountriesoftenmoreyearsoflifethantheyhadin1960.Politiciansmayfearthedeclineoftheirnations’economicpowerbutpeopleshouldcelebratethenewdemographicsasheraldingagoldenage. [E]TheshrinkageofRussiaandeasternEuropeisfamiliarthoughnotperhapsthescaleofit:Russia’spopulationisexpectedtofallby22%between2005and2050Ukraine’sbyastaggering43%.Nowthephenomenoniscreepingintotherichworld:JapanhasstartedtoshrinkandotherssuchasItalyandGermanywillsoonfollow.EvenChina’spopulationwillbedecliningbytheearly2030saccordingtotheUNwhichprojectsthatby2050populationswillbelowerthantheyaretodayin50countries. [F]ButifdemographicdeclineisnotgenerallyaconsequenceofeconomicdeclinesurelyitmustbeacauseInacrudesenseyes.AspopulationsshrinkGDPgrowthwillslow.Someeconomiesmayevenstarttoshrinktoo.Theresultwillbealossofeconomicinfluence. [G]ThecrucialquestionisthereforewhattheeffectofdemographicdeclineisonthegrowthofGDPperperson.Thebadnewsisthatthislookslikelytoslowbecauseworking-agepopulationsWilldeclinemorerapidlythanoverallpopulations.Yetthisneednothappen.ProductivitygrowthmaykeepupgrowthinGDPperperson:aslabourbecomesscarcerandpressuretointroducenewtechnologiestoboostworkers’efficiencyincreasessotheproductivityoflabourmayrisefaster.Anywayretirementagescanbeliftedtoincreasethesupplyoflabourevenwhenthepopulationisdeclining. 45
Formaleconomicforecastingisusuallybasedona1theoryastohowtheeconomyworks.Sometheoriesarecomplicatedandtheirapplicationrequiresanelaborate2ofcauseandeffect.Othersarerelativelysimple3mostdevelopmentsintheeconomytooneortwobasicfactors.Manyeconomistsforexamplebelievethatchangesinthesupplyofmoney4therateofgrowthofgeneralbusinessactivity.Others5acentralroletoinvestmentinnewfacilities--housingindustrialplantshighwaysandsoforth.IntheUnitedStateswhereconsumers6suchalargeshareofeconomicactivitysomeeconomybelievethatconsumerdecisionsto7orsaveprovidetheprincipal8tothefuturecourseoftheentireeconomy.Obviouslythetheorythataforecasterappliesisof9importancetotheforecastingprocess;it10hislineofinvestigationthestatisticshewillregardasmostimportantandmanyofthetechniqueshewillapply. Althougheconomictheorymaydeterminethegeneral11ofaforecastjudgmentalsooftenplaysanimportantrole.Aforecastermaydecidethatthecircumstancesofthemomentare12andthataforecastproducedbythe13statisticalmethodsshouldbemodifiedtotakeaccountofspecialcurrentcircumstances.ThisisparticularlynecessarywhensomeeventoutsidetheUsualrunofeconomicactivityhasana14economiceffect.Forexampleforecastsof1987economicactivityintheUnitedStatesweremoreaccuratewhentheanalystcorrectlyforesawthattheexchangevalueofthedollarwould15sharplyduringtheyearthatconsumerspendingwouldslackenandthat16rateswouldriseonlymoderately.Noneoftheseconclusionsfollowed17purelyeconomicanalysis;theyallrequiredjudgmentastofuturedecisions18aneconomistmaydecidetoadjustaneconomicforecastthatwasmadebytraditionalmethodstotakeaccountofotherunique19;hemayforexampledecidethatconsumerswill20theirspendingpatternsbecauseofspecialcircumstancessuchasrisingpriceofimportsorfearofthreatenedshortages. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.5
Formaleconomicforecastingisusuallybasedona1theoryastohowtheeconomyworks.Sometheoriesarecomplicatedandtheirapplicationrequiresanelaborate2ofcauseandeffect.Othersarerelativelysimple3mostdevelopmentsintheeconomytooneortwobasicfactors.Manyeconomistsforexamplebelievethatchangesinthesupplyofmoney4therateofgrowthofgeneralbusinessactivity.Others5acentralroletoinvestmentinnewfacilities--housingindustrialplantshighwaysandsoforth.IntheUnitedStateswhereconsumers6suchalargeshareofeconomicactivitysomeeconomybelievethatconsumerdecisionsto7orsaveprovidetheprincipal8tothefuturecourseoftheentireeconomy.Obviouslythetheorythataforecasterappliesisof9importancetotheforecastingprocess;it10hislineofinvestigationthestatisticshewillregardasmostimportantandmanyofthetechniqueshewillapply. Althougheconomictheorymaydeterminethegeneral11ofaforecastjudgmentalsooftenplaysanimportantrole.Aforecastermaydecidethatthecircumstancesofthemomentare12andthataforecastproducedbythe13statisticalmethodsshouldbemodifiedtotakeaccountofspecialcurrentcircumstances.ThisisparticularlynecessarywhensomeeventoutsidetheUsualrunofeconomicactivityhasana14economiceffect.Forexampleforecastsof1987economicactivityintheUnitedStatesweremoreaccuratewhentheanalystcorrectlyforesawthattheexchangevalueofthedollarwould15sharplyduringtheyearthatconsumerspendingwouldslackenandthat16rateswouldriseonlymoderately.Noneoftheseconclusionsfollowed17purelyeconomicanalysis;theyallrequiredjudgmentastofuturedecisions18aneconomistmaydecidetoadjustaneconomicforecastthatwasmadebytraditionalmethodstotakeaccountofotherunique19;hemayforexampledecidethatconsumerswill20theirspendingpatternsbecauseofspecialcircumstancessuchasrisingpriceofimportsorfearofthreatenedshortages. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.19
Formaleconomicforecastingisusuallybasedona1theoryastohowtheeconomyworks.Sometheoriesarecomplicatedandtheirapplicationrequiresanelaborate2ofcauseandeffect.Othersarerelativelysimple3mostdevelopmentsintheeconomytooneortwobasicfactors.Manyeconomistsforexamplebelievethatchangesinthesupplyofmoney4therateofgrowthofgeneralbusinessactivity.Others5acentralroletoinvestmentinnewfacilities--housingindustrialplantshighwaysandsoforth.IntheUnitedStateswhereconsumers6suchalargeshareofeconomicactivitysomeeconomybelievethatconsumerdecisionsto7orsaveprovidetheprincipal8tothefuturecourseoftheentireeconomy.Obviouslythetheorythataforecasterappliesisof9importancetotheforecastingprocess;it10hislineofinvestigationthestatisticshewillregardasmostimportantandmanyofthetechniqueshewillapply. Althougheconomictheorymaydeterminethegeneral11ofaforecastjudgmentalsooftenplaysanimportantrole.Aforecastermaydecidethatthecircumstancesofthemomentare12andthataforecastproducedbythe13statisticalmethodsshouldbemodifiedtotakeaccountofspecialcurrentcircumstances.ThisisparticularlynecessarywhensomeeventoutsidetheUsualrunofeconomicactivityhasana14economiceffect.Forexampleforecastsof1987economicactivityintheUnitedStatesweremoreaccuratewhentheanalystcorrectlyforesawthattheexchangevalueofthedollarwould15sharplyduringtheyearthatconsumerspendingwouldslackenandthat16rateswouldriseonlymoderately.Noneoftheseconclusionsfollowed17purelyeconomicanalysis;theyallrequiredjudgmentastofuturedecisions18aneconomistmaydecidetoadjustaneconomicforecastthatwasmadebytraditionalmethodstotakeaccountofotherunique19;hemayforexampledecidethatconsumerswill20theirspendingpatternsbecauseofspecialcircumstancessuchasrisingpriceofimportsorfearofthreatenedshortages. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.3
阅读下列__条文分析它的含义和重要性 第37条“中华人民共和国公民的人身自由不受侵犯任何公民非经人民检察院批准或者决定或者人民法院决定并由公安机关执行不受逮捕禁止非法拘禁和以其他方法非法剥夺或者限制公民的人身自由禁止非法搜查公民的身体”
[A]Demographicdeclineworriespeoplebecauseitisbelievedtogohandinhandwitheconomicdecline.Attheextremesitmaywellbetheresultofeconomicfactors:pessimismmaydepressthebirthrateandpushupratesofsuicideandalcoholism.Butinthemaindemographicdeclineistheconsequenceofthelowfertilitythatgenerallygoeswithgrowingprosperity.InJapanforinstancebirthratesfellbelowthereplacementrateof2.1childrenperwomaninthemid-1970sandhavebeenparticularlylowinthepast15years. [B]Duringthesecondhalfofthe20thcenturytheglobalpopulationexplosionwasthebigdemographicannoyance.RobertMcNamarapresidentoftheWorldBankinthe1970scomparedthethreatofunmanageablepopulationpressureswiththedangerofnuclearwar.Nowthatworryhasevaporatedandthiscenturyisfrighteningitselfwiththeoppositefear:theonsetofdemographicdecline. [C]GovernmentshatetheideaofashrinkingpopulationbecausetheabsolutesizeofGDPmattersforgreat-powerstatus.Thebiggertheeconomythebiggerthemilitarythegreaterthegeopoliticalclout:annualGDPestimateswerefirstintroducedinAmericainthe1940saspartofitswareffort.Companiesworrytoo:theydonotliketheideaoftheirdomesticmarketsshrinking.Peopleshouldnotmindthough.WhatmattersforeconomicwelfareisGDPperperson. [D]Peoplelovetoworry--maybeit’sasymptomofageingpopulations--butthegloomsurroundingpopulationdeclinesmissesthemainpoint.Thenewdemographicsthatarecausingpopulationstoageandtoshrinkaresomethingtocelebrate.Humanitywasoncecaughtinthetrapofhighfertilityandhighmortality.Nowithasescapedintothefreedomoflowfertilityandlowmortality.Women’scontroloverthenumberofchildrentheyhaveisanunqualifiedgood--asistheaverageperson’senjoymentinrichcountriesoftenmoreyearsoflifethantheyhadin1960.Politiciansmayfearthedeclineoftheirnations’economicpowerbutpeopleshouldcelebratethenewdemographicsasheraldingagoldenage. [E]TheshrinkageofRussiaandeasternEuropeisfamiliarthoughnotperhapsthescaleofit:Russia’spopulationisexpectedtofallby22%between2005and2050Ukraine’sbyastaggering43%.Nowthephenomenoniscreepingintotherichworld:JapanhasstartedtoshrinkandotherssuchasItalyandGermanywillsoonfollow.EvenChina’spopulationwillbedecliningbytheearly2030saccordingtotheUNwhichprojectsthatby2050populationswillbelowerthantheyaretodayin50countries. [F]ButifdemographicdeclineisnotgenerallyaconsequenceofeconomicdeclinesurelyitmustbeacauseInacrudesenseyes.AspopulationsshrinkGDPgrowthwillslow.Someeconomiesmayevenstarttoshrinktoo.Theresultwillbealossofeconomicinfluence. [G]ThecrucialquestionisthereforewhattheeffectofdemographicdeclineisonthegrowthofGDPperperson.Thebadnewsisthatthislookslikelytoslowbecauseworking-agepopulationsWilldeclinemorerapidlythanoverallpopulations.Yetthisneednothappen.ProductivitygrowthmaykeepupgrowthinGDPperperson:aslabourbecomesscarcerandpressuretointroducenewtechnologiestoboostworkers’efficiencyincreasessotheproductivityoflabourmayrisefaster.Anywayretirementagescanbeliftedtoincreasethesupplyoflabourevenwhenthepopulationisdeclining. 43
Formaleconomicforecastingisusuallybasedona1theoryastohowtheeconomyworks.Sometheoriesarecomplicatedandtheirapplicationrequiresanelaborate2ofcauseandeffect.Othersarerelativelysimple3mostdevelopmentsintheeconomytooneortwobasicfactors.Manyeconomistsforexamplebelievethatchangesinthesupplyofmoney4therateofgrowthofgeneralbusinessactivity.Others5acentralroletoinvestmentinnewfacilities--housingindustrialplantshighwaysandsoforth.IntheUnitedStateswhereconsumers6suchalargeshareofeconomicactivitysomeeconomybelievethatconsumerdecisionsto7orsaveprovidetheprincipal8tothefuturecourseoftheentireeconomy.Obviouslythetheorythataforecasterappliesisof9importancetotheforecastingprocess;it10hislineofinvestigationthestatisticshewillregardasmostimportantandmanyofthetechniqueshewillapply. Althougheconomictheorymaydeterminethegeneral11ofaforecastjudgmentalsooftenplaysanimportantrole.Aforecastermaydecidethatthecircumstancesofthemomentare12andthataforecastproducedbythe13statisticalmethodsshouldbemodifiedtotakeaccountofspecialcurrentcircumstances.ThisisparticularlynecessarywhensomeeventoutsidetheUsualrunofeconomicactivityhasana14economiceffect.Forexampleforecastsof1987economicactivityintheUnitedStatesweremoreaccuratewhentheanalystcorrectlyforesawthattheexchangevalueofthedollarwould15sharplyduringtheyearthatconsumerspendingwouldslackenandthat16rateswouldriseonlymoderately.Noneoftheseconclusionsfollowed17purelyeconomicanalysis;theyallrequiredjudgmentastofuturedecisions18aneconomistmaydecidetoadjustaneconomicforecastthatwasmadebytraditionalmethodstotakeaccountofotherunique19;hemayforexampledecidethatconsumerswill20theirspendingpatternsbecauseofspecialcircumstancessuchasrisingpriceofimportsorfearofthreatenedshortages. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.15
1anexpressionofyourgratitude 2offertoreturnthefavoroneday 3yourexpectationforhervisiting. Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter.Use"LiMing"instead.Donotwritetheaddress.
Acrampedpublic-schooltestkitchenmightseemanunlikelyoutpostforafoodrevolution.ButCollazoexecutivecheffortheNewYorkCitypublicschoolsandscoresofothersacrossthecountry--celebritychefsandlunchladiesdistrictsuperintendentsandpoliticians--saythey’redeterminedtoimprovewhatkidseatinschool.Nearlyeveryoneagreessomethingmustbedone.Mostschoolcafeteriasarestaffedbypoorlytrainedbadlyequippedworkerswhochurnout4.8billionhotlunchesayear.Oftenthemealsproducedforabout$1eachconsistofbreadedmeatpattiesFrenchfriesandovercookedvegetables.Sothekidsbuymuffinscookiesandicecreaminstead--ortheyfeastonfastfoodfromMcDonald’sPizzaHutandTacoBellwhichisavailableinmorethanhalftheschoolsinthenation.Vendingmachinespackedwithsodasandcandylinethehallways."We’rekillingourkids"withthefoodweservesaysTexasEducationCommissionerSusanCombs. Asratesofchildhoodobesityanddiabetesskyrocketpublic-healthofficialssayschoolsneedtochangethewaykidseat.Itwon’tbeeasy.Somekidsandtheirparentsdon’tknowbetter.Homecookingisbecomingaforgottenart.Andfast-foodcompaniesnowspend$3billionayearontelevisionadsaimedatchildren.AlongwithreadingandwritingschoolsneedtoteachkidsWhattoeattostayhealthysaysculinaryinnovatorAliceWaterswhoisintroducinggardeningandfreshproduceto16schoolsinCalifornia.It’sagoldenopportunityshesays"toaffectthewaychildreneatfortherestoftheirlives."LastyearstarEnglishchefJamieOlivertookoveraschoolcafeteriainaworking-classsuburbofLondon.AdocumentaryabouthisworkshamedtheBritishgovernmentintospending$500milliontorevampthenation’sschool-foodprogram.Oliversaysit’stheUnitedStates’turnnow."Ifyoucanputamanonthemoon"hesays"youcangivekidsthefoodtheyneedtomakethemlighterfitterandlivelonger." Changingschoolfoodwilltakemoney.Manyschoolsadministratorsarehookedontheeasycash-upto$75000annually--thatsodaandcandyvendingmachinescanbringin.ThreeyearsagoGaryHirshbergofConcordN.H.wasappalledwhenhis13-year-oldsondescribedhisdaytimemeal--pizzachocolatemilkandapackageofSkittles."Iwasn’tawareSkittleswasafoodgroup"saysHirshbergCEOofStonyfieldFarmayogurtcompany.Sohedevisedavendingmachinethatstockshealthysnacks:yogurtsmoothiesfruitleathersandwhole-wheatpretzels.Sofar41schoolsinCaliforniaIllinoisandWashingtonareusinghismachines--andathousandmorehaverequestedthem.Hirshbergsays"schoolshavetomakegoodfoodapriority." Somestatesaretrying.CaliforniaNewYorkandTexashavepassednewlawsthatlimitjunkfoodsoldonschoolgrounds.DistrictsinCaliforniaNewMexicoandWashingtonhavebegunbuyingproducefromlocalfarms.Thesodaandcandyinthevendingmachineshavebeenreplacedbyjuiceandbeefjerky."It’snotperfect"saysJannison.Butit’sacauseworthfightingforEvenifshehastobattleonechipatatime. Whatisthemainideaofthetext
Formaleconomicforecastingisusuallybasedona1theoryastohowtheeconomyworks.Sometheoriesarecomplicatedandtheirapplicationrequiresanelaborate2ofcauseandeffect.Othersarerelativelysimple3mostdevelopmentsintheeconomytooneortwobasicfactors.Manyeconomistsforexamplebelievethatchangesinthesupplyofmoney4therateofgrowthofgeneralbusinessactivity.Others5acentralroletoinvestmentinnewfacilities--housingindustrialplantshighwaysandsoforth.IntheUnitedStateswhereconsumers6suchalargeshareofeconomicactivitysomeeconomybelievethatconsumerdecisionsto7orsaveprovidetheprincipal8tothefuturecourseoftheentireeconomy.Obviouslythetheorythataforecasterappliesisof9importancetotheforecastingprocess;it10hislineofinvestigationthestatisticshewillregardasmostimportantandmanyofthetechniqueshewillapply. Althougheconomictheorymaydeterminethegeneral11ofaforecastjudgmentalsooftenplaysanimportantrole.Aforecastermaydecidethatthecircumstancesofthemomentare12andthataforecastproducedbythe13statisticalmethodsshouldbemodifiedtotakeaccountofspecialcurrentcircumstances.ThisisparticularlynecessarywhensomeeventoutsidetheUsualrunofeconomicactivityhasana14economiceffect.Forexampleforecastsof1987economicactivityintheUnitedStatesweremoreaccuratewhentheanalystcorrectlyforesawthattheexchangevalueofthedollarwould15sharplyduringtheyearthatconsumerspendingwouldslackenandthat16rateswouldriseonlymoderately.Noneoftheseconclusionsfollowed17purelyeconomicanalysis;theyallrequiredjudgmentastofuturedecisions18aneconomistmaydecidetoadjustaneconomicforecastthatwasmadebytraditionalmethodstotakeaccountofotherunique19;hemayforexampledecidethatconsumerswill20theirspendingpatternsbecauseofspecialcircumstancessuchasrisingpriceofimportsorfearofthreatenedshortages. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.9
Acrampedpublic-schooltestkitchenmightseemanunlikelyoutpostforafoodrevolution.ButCollazoexecutivecheffortheNewYorkCitypublicschoolsandscoresofothersacrossthecountry--celebritychefsandlunchladiesdistrictsuperintendentsandpoliticians--saythey’redeterminedtoimprovewhatkidseatinschool.Nearlyeveryoneagreessomethingmustbedone.Mostschoolcafeteriasarestaffedbypoorlytrainedbadlyequippedworkerswhochurnout4.8billionhotlunchesayear.Oftenthemealsproducedforabout$1eachconsistofbreadedmeatpattiesFrenchfriesandovercookedvegetables.Sothekidsbuymuffinscookiesandicecreaminstead--ortheyfeastonfastfoodfromMcDonald’sPizzaHutandTacoBellwhichisavailableinmorethanhalftheschoolsinthenation.Vendingmachinespackedwithsodasandcandylinethehallways."We’rekillingourkids"withthefoodweservesaysTexasEducationCommissionerSusanCombs. Asratesofchildhoodobesityanddiabetesskyrocketpublic-healthofficialssayschoolsneedtochangethewaykidseat.Itwon’tbeeasy.Somekidsandtheirparentsdon’tknowbetter.Homecookingisbecomingaforgottenart.Andfast-foodcompaniesnowspend$3billionayearontelevisionadsaimedatchildren.AlongwithreadingandwritingschoolsneedtoteachkidsWhattoeattostayhealthysaysculinaryinnovatorAliceWaterswhoisintroducinggardeningandfreshproduceto16schoolsinCalifornia.It’sagoldenopportunityshesays"toaffectthewaychildreneatfortherestoftheirlives."LastyearstarEnglishchefJamieOlivertookoveraschoolcafeteriainaworking-classsuburbofLondon.AdocumentaryabouthisworkshamedtheBritishgovernmentintospending$500milliontorevampthenation’sschool-foodprogram.Oliversaysit’stheUnitedStates’turnnow."Ifyoucanputamanonthemoon"hesays"youcangivekidsthefoodtheyneedtomakethemlighterfitterandlivelonger." Changingschoolfoodwilltakemoney.Manyschoolsadministratorsarehookedontheeasycash-upto$75000annually--thatsodaandcandyvendingmachinescanbringin.ThreeyearsagoGaryHirshbergofConcordN.H.wasappalledwhenhis13-year-oldsondescribedhisdaytimemeal--pizzachocolatemilkandapackageofSkittles."Iwasn’tawareSkittleswasafoodgroup"saysHirshbergCEOofStonyfieldFarmayogurtcompany.Sohedevisedavendingmachinethatstockshealthysnacks:yogurtsmoothiesfruitleathersandwhole-wheatpretzels.Sofar41schoolsinCaliforniaIllinoisandWashingtonareusinghismachines--andathousandmorehaverequestedthem.Hirshbergsays"schoolshavetomakegoodfoodapriority." Somestatesaretrying.CaliforniaNewYorkandTexashavepassednewlawsthatlimitjunkfoodsoldonschoolgrounds.DistrictsinCaliforniaNewMexicoandWashingtonhavebegunbuyingproducefromlocalfarms.Thesodaandcandyinthevendingmachineshavebeenreplacedbyjuiceandbeefjerky."It’snotperfect"saysJannison.Butit’sacauseworthfightingforEvenifshehastobattleonechipatatime. WecaninferfromPara.2thatJamierOliverthinks
Formaleconomicforecastingisusuallybasedona1theoryastohowtheeconomyworks.Sometheoriesarecomplicatedandtheirapplicationrequiresanelaborate2ofcauseandeffect.Othersarerelativelysimple3mostdevelopmentsintheeconomytooneortwobasicfactors.Manyeconomistsforexamplebelievethatchangesinthesupplyofmoney4therateofgrowthofgeneralbusinessactivity.Others5acentralroletoinvestmentinnewfacilities--housingindustrialplantshighwaysandsoforth.IntheUnitedStateswhereconsumers6suchalargeshareofeconomicactivitysomeeconomybelievethatconsumerdecisionsto7orsaveprovidetheprincipal8tothefuturecourseoftheentireeconomy.Obviouslythetheorythataforecasterappliesisof9importancetotheforecastingprocess;it10hislineofinvestigationthestatisticshewillregardasmostimportantandmanyofthetechniqueshewillapply. Althougheconomictheorymaydeterminethegeneral11ofaforecastjudgmentalsooftenplaysanimportantrole.Aforecastermaydecidethatthecircumstancesofthemomentare12andthataforecastproducedbythe13statisticalmethodsshouldbemodifiedtotakeaccountofspecialcurrentcircumstances.ThisisparticularlynecessarywhensomeeventoutsidetheUsualrunofeconomicactivityhasana14economiceffect.Forexampleforecastsof1987economicactivityintheUnitedStatesweremoreaccuratewhentheanalystcorrectlyforesawthattheexchangevalueofthedollarwould15sharplyduringtheyearthatconsumerspendingwouldslackenandthat16rateswouldriseonlymoderately.Noneoftheseconclusionsfollowed17purelyeconomicanalysis;theyallrequiredjudgmentastofuturedecisions18aneconomistmaydecidetoadjustaneconomicforecastthatwasmadebytraditionalmethodstotakeaccountofotherunique19;hemayforexampledecidethatconsumerswill20theirspendingpatternsbecauseofspecialcircumstancessuchasrisingpriceofimportsorfearofthreatenedshortages. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.7
Formaleconomicforecastingisusuallybasedona1theoryastohowtheeconomyworks.Sometheoriesarecomplicatedandtheirapplicationrequiresanelaborate2ofcauseandeffect.Othersarerelativelysimple3mostdevelopmentsintheeconomytooneortwobasicfactors.Manyeconomistsforexamplebelievethatchangesinthesupplyofmoney4therateofgrowthofgeneralbusinessactivity.Others5acentralroletoinvestmentinnewfacilities--housingindustrialplantshighwaysandsoforth.IntheUnitedStateswhereconsumers6suchalargeshareofeconomicactivitysomeeconomybelievethatconsumerdecisionsto7orsaveprovidetheprincipal8tothefuturecourseoftheentireeconomy.Obviouslythetheorythataforecasterappliesisof9importancetotheforecastingprocess;it10hislineofinvestigationthestatisticshewillregardasmostimportantandmanyofthetechniqueshewillapply. Althougheconomictheorymaydeterminethegeneral11ofaforecastjudgmentalsooftenplaysanimportantrole.Aforecastermaydecidethatthecircumstancesofthemomentare12andthataforecastproducedbythe13statisticalmethodsshouldbemodifiedtotakeaccountofspecialcurrentcircumstances.ThisisparticularlynecessarywhensomeeventoutsidetheUsualrunofeconomicactivityhasana14economiceffect.Forexampleforecastsof1987economicactivityintheUnitedStatesweremoreaccuratewhentheanalystcorrectlyforesawthattheexchangevalueofthedollarwould15sharplyduringtheyearthatconsumerspendingwouldslackenandthat16rateswouldriseonlymoderately.Noneoftheseconclusionsfollowed17purelyeconomicanalysis;theyallrequiredjudgmentastofuturedecisions18aneconomistmaydecidetoadjustaneconomicforecastthatwasmadebytraditionalmethodstotakeaccountofotherunique19;hemayforexampledecidethatconsumerswill20theirspendingpatternsbecauseofspecialcircumstancessuchasrisingpriceofimportsorfearofthreatenedshortages. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.17
Itisdifficulttoseehowonecanteachifoneisnotlearning.Buttherearesomedistinctionstobemadehere.Torelyonlastyear’snotesor--evenworse--one’slastyear’smemoryasifthatwouldalwaysbeanadequatebasisforpassingonknowledgeistomistakewhathumanknowledgeis.46.Andsotheassimilationofbooksthereadingofarticlesthepursuitofmattersofconcernwillbecrucialtoone’sabilitytointroduceanddevelopastudent’sabilitytoparticipateinaspecificuniverseofdiscourse. Researchmightbethoughttobeanothermatterespeciallyifitisdefinedasaddingtothesumtotalofhumanknowledge.47.Theexpansionofhighereducationwhichhastakenplaceandmoreparticularlytheexpansionwhichislikelytotakeplacesimplymakesitunlikelythatallthosewhoarelegitimatelyinvolvedintheteachingandwhofulfilltheirresponsibilitiesutterlyinthatregardarethemselvesallcapableofaddinganythingworthhavingtothesumtotalofhumanknowledge.Itseemsbestthereforenottoassumeitandnottopresumewhatinprincipleisundeliverable.Ontheotherhandaninstitutionofhighereducationwhichisnotcommittedasacommunitytoresearchwillbedefective.48.Thelimitofwhatweknowmustbeapparentthemeansandopportunitiesofinquirymustbeunderstoodthevalueofresearchsharedevenifitisonlysomemembersofadepartmentafacultyoraninstitutionwhoareactuallyengagedinit.Scholarshipisforall;researchforthosewhoaremostadept.49.Ofcourseapropercelebrationoftheroleofteachingandtheartoftheteacherwillhelptoputfighttheveryseriousdisparityofesteemwhichisaffectingourjudgmentinthisarea. Butallthishasimplicationsforstaffdevelopment.Thedistributionofresourcesbytheinstitutionwillbeajudgmentonitsmoralperspective.Sotheidentificationandsupportofwaysinwhichteachingcanbeimprovedwillbeasimportantasthedevelopmentofresearchinthelifeofanacademiccommunity.50.Somethingsignificantisdonebythesupportofscholarshipbyfinancingattendanceatconferences;butattentiontoteachingstylesandlearningstrategiesthroughcoursesdiscussionvisitinglecturesschoolsmayallbeasimportant. Theexpansionofhighereducationwhichhastakenplaceandmoreparticularlytheexpansionwhichislikelytotakeplacesimplymakesitunlikelythatallthosewhoarelegitimatelyinvolvedintheteachingandwhofulfilltheirresponsibilitiesutterlyinthatregardarethemselvesallcapableofaddinganythingworthhavingtothesumtotalofhumanknowledge.
Acrampedpublic-schooltestkitchenmightseemanunlikelyoutpostforafoodrevolution.ButCollazoexecutivecheffortheNewYorkCitypublicschoolsandscoresofothersacrossthecountry--celebritychefsandlunchladiesdistrictsuperintendentsandpoliticians--saythey’redeterminedtoimprovewhatkidseatinschool.Nearlyeveryoneagreessomethingmustbedone.Mostschoolcafeteriasarestaffedbypoorlytrainedbadlyequippedworkerswhochurnout4.8billionhotlunchesayear.Oftenthemealsproducedforabout$1eachconsistofbreadedmeatpattiesFrenchfriesandovercookedvegetables.Sothekidsbuymuffinscookiesandicecreaminstead--ortheyfeastonfastfoodfromMcDonald’sPizzaHutandTacoBellwhichisavailableinmorethanhalftheschoolsinthenation.Vendingmachinespackedwithsodasandcandylinethehallways."We’rekillingourkids"withthefoodweservesaysTexasEducationCommissionerSusanCombs. Asratesofchildhoodobesityanddiabetesskyrocketpublic-healthofficialssayschoolsneedtochangethewaykidseat.Itwon’tbeeasy.Somekidsandtheirparentsdon’tknowbetter.Homecookingisbecomingaforgottenart.Andfast-foodcompaniesnowspend$3billionayearontelevisionadsaimedatchildren.AlongwithreadingandwritingschoolsneedtoteachkidsWhattoeattostayhealthysaysculinaryinnovatorAliceWaterswhoisintroducinggardeningandfreshproduceto16schoolsinCalifornia.It’sagoldenopportunityshesays"toaffectthewaychildreneatfortherestoftheirlives."LastyearstarEnglishchefJamieOlivertookoveraschoolcafeteriainaworking-classsuburbofLondon.AdocumentaryabouthisworkshamedtheBritishgovernmentintospending$500milliontorevampthenation’sschool-foodprogram.Oliversaysit’stheUnitedStates’turnnow."Ifyoucanputamanonthemoon"hesays"youcangivekidsthefoodtheyneedtomakethemlighterfitterandlivelonger." Changingschoolfoodwilltakemoney.Manyschoolsadministratorsarehookedontheeasycash-upto$75000annually--thatsodaandcandyvendingmachinescanbringin.ThreeyearsagoGaryHirshbergofConcordN.H.wasappalledwhenhis13-year-oldsondescribedhisdaytimemeal--pizzachocolatemilkandapackageofSkittles."Iwasn’tawareSkittleswasafoodgroup"saysHirshbergCEOofStonyfieldFarmayogurtcompany.Sohedevisedavendingmachinethatstockshealthysnacks:yogurtsmoothiesfruitleathersandwhole-wheatpretzels.Sofar41schoolsinCaliforniaIllinoisandWashingtonareusinghismachines--andathousandmorehaverequestedthem.Hirshbergsays"schoolshavetomakegoodfoodapriority." Somestatesaretrying.CaliforniaNewYorkandTexashavepassednewlawsthatlimitjunkfoodsoldonschoolgrounds.DistrictsinCaliforniaNewMexicoandWashingtonhavebegunbuyingproducefromlocalfarms.Thesodaandcandyinthevendingmachineshavebeenreplacedbyjuiceandbeefjerky."It’snotperfect"saysJannison.Butit’sacauseworthfightingforEvenifshehastobattleonechipatatime. Fromparagraph1welearnthat
Formaleconomicforecastingisusuallybasedona1theoryastohowtheeconomyworks.Sometheoriesarecomplicatedandtheirapplicationrequiresanelaborate2ofcauseandeffect.Othersarerelativelysimple3mostdevelopmentsintheeconomytooneortwobasicfactors.Manyeconomistsforexamplebelievethatchangesinthesupplyofmoney4therateofgrowthofgeneralbusinessactivity.Others5acentralroletoinvestmentinnewfacilities--housingindustrialplantshighwaysandsoforth.IntheUnitedStateswhereconsumers6suchalargeshareofeconomicactivitysomeeconomybelievethatconsumerdecisionsto7orsaveprovidetheprincipal8tothefuturecourseoftheentireeconomy.Obviouslythetheorythataforecasterappliesisof9importancetotheforecastingprocess;it10hislineofinvestigationthestatisticshewillregardasmostimportantandmanyofthetechniqueshewillapply. Althougheconomictheorymaydeterminethegeneral11ofaforecastjudgmentalsooftenplaysanimportantrole.Aforecastermaydecidethatthecircumstancesofthemomentare12andthataforecastproducedbythe13statisticalmethodsshouldbemodifiedtotakeaccountofspecialcurrentcircumstances.ThisisparticularlynecessarywhensomeeventoutsidetheUsualrunofeconomicactivityhasana14economiceffect.Forexampleforecastsof1987economicactivityintheUnitedStatesweremoreaccuratewhentheanalystcorrectlyforesawthattheexchangevalueofthedollarwould15sharplyduringtheyearthatconsumerspendingwouldslackenandthat16rateswouldriseonlymoderately.Noneoftheseconclusionsfollowed17purelyeconomicanalysis;theyallrequiredjudgmentastofuturedecisions18aneconomistmaydecidetoadjustaneconomicforecastthatwasmadebytraditionalmethodstotakeaccountofotherunique19;hemayforexampledecidethatconsumerswill20theirspendingpatternsbecauseofspecialcircumstancessuchasrisingpriceofimportsorfearofthreatenedshortages. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.11
Cleverrichorboth--almosteverycountryintheworldhassomesortofprogrammetoattractdesirablemigrants.Theonlyexceptionsare"weirdplaceslikeBhutan"saysChristianKalinofHenley&Partnerswhichspecializesinfixingvisasandpassportsforglobe-trotters.Competitionisfierceandaswithmostthingsthatlowersthepriceandincreaseschoice.Britainhastwoprogrammesonefortherich--whohavetoinvest￡750000$1.36minactivelytradedsecurities--andonemuchlargerfortalentedforeigners. Bothhaveworkedwell.UnlikesomeothercountriesBritaindoesnotmakeapplicantsfindajobfirst:withgoodqualificationstheycanjustturnupandlookforwork.ThathelpskeepBritain’seconomyflexibleandcompetitive.Butnowabureaucraticsnagisthreateningthescheme. Theproblemcomeswithanyonewantingtoconverthisvisainto"indefiniteleavetoremain"Britain’sequivalentofAmerica’sGreenCard.Thisnormallyrequiresfouryears’continuousresidenceinBritain.AfterafurtheryearitnormallyleadstoBritishcitizenship. Thelawdefinescontinuousresidencesensibly.Businesstripsandholidaysdon’tcountiftheapplicant’smainhomeisinBritain.Asaruleofthumbanaverageof90daysabroadwasallowedeachyear.ButunpublishedguidelinesseenbyTheEconomistaretougher:theysaythat"noneoftheabsencesabroadshouldbeofmorethanthreemonthsandtheymustnotamounttomorethansixmonthsinall."Overthefouryearsneededtoqualitythataveragesonlysixweeksayear. Formanyjet-settersthisrestrictionisacareer-buster.Sixweeksabroadbarelycoversholidaysletalonebusinesstravel.AlexeiSidneyaRussianconsultanthastoturndownimportantjobsbecausehecannotaffordanymoredaysabroad.Ifapplicantstravel"toomuch"theirchildrenrisklosingtherighttoremaininBritain. TheHomeOfficeinsiststhattheruleshavenotchangedsince2001.ThatwouldconfirmMr.Gherson’ssuspicionthatthenewpolicyhascomeinbyaccidentprobablyasaresultofzealorcarelessnessbymid-rankingofficials.Theirattitudeisatoddswiththestanceofthegovernmentwhichhasbeentryingforyearstomakethesystemmoreuser-friendlyfortheworld’selite.ItevenmovedprocessingofbusinessresidencycasesfromahugeofficeinCroydonnotoriousforitsslownessandhostilitytowould-beimmigrantstoanewoutfitinSheffield. ButlawyerssuchasMrKalinareinnodoubtoftheriskBritainisrunning.Americahesaysisalreadylosingoutintheglobaltalentmarketbecauseofits"painfulandhumiliating"immigrationprocedures.IfBritain’srulesstaytighthesaysforeignerswillgoelsewhere.LikelybeneficiariesareIrelandandAustriaEuropeanUnioncountrieswhoseresidencyvisasandpassportsconferthesameconvenienceasBritishoneswithlesshassle. Thehomeofficeholdstheviewthat
Oneofthemanytheoriesaboutalcoholismisthelearningandreinforcementtheorywhichexplainsalcoholismbyconsideringalcoholdrinkingasareflexresponsetosomestimulusandasawaytoreduceaninnerdrivestatesuchasfearoranxiety.Characterizinglifesituationsintermsofapproachandavoidancethistheoryholdsthatpersonstendtobedrawntopleasantsituationsorrepelledbyuncleansanityones.Inthelattercasealcoholdrinkingissaidtoreducethetensionorfeelingsofunpleasantnessandtoreplacethemwiththefeelingofpleasuregenerallyobservedinmostpersonsaftertheyhaveconsumedoneormoredrinks. Someexperimentalevidencetendstoshowthatalcoholreducesfearinanapproach-avoidancesituation.Congertrainedonegroupofratstoapproachafoodgoalandtrainedanothergrouptoavoidelectricshock.Afteraninjectionofalcoholthepullawayfromtheshockwasmeasurablyweakerwhilethepulltowardfoodwasunchanged. Theobvioustroublesexperiencedbyalcoholicpersonsappeartocontradictthelearningtheoryintheexplanationofalcoholism.Thediscomfortpainandpunishmenttheyexperienceshouldpresumablydiscouragethealcoholicsfromdrinking.Thefactthatalcoholicpersonscontinuetodrinkinthefaceoffamilydiscordlossofjobandillnessisexplainedbytheproximityofthedriveofreductiontotheconsumptionofalcohol;thatisalcoholhastheimmediateeffectofreducingtensionwhiletheunpleasantconsequencesofdrunkenbehaviorcameonlylater.Thelearningpatternthereforefavorstheestablishmentandrepetitionoftheresorttoalcohol. Infacttheanxietiesandfeelingsofguiltcausedbytheconsequencesofexcessivealcoholdrinkingmaythemselvesbecomethesignalforanothertimeofalcoholabuse.Thewayinwhichthedesireforanotherdrinkcouldbecausedbyanxietyisexplainedbytheprocessofstimulusgeneralization:conditionsoreventssecuringatthetimeofreinforcementtendtoacquireallthefeaturesofstimuli.Whenalcoholisconsumedinassociationwithastateofanxietyorleertheemotionalstateitselftakesonthepropertiesofastimulusthustriggeringanothertimeofdrinking. Theroleofpunishmentisbecomingincreasinglyimportantinexplainingacauseofalcoholismbasedontheprinciplesoflearningtheory.Whilepunishmentmayservetosuppressaresponseexperimentshaveshownthatinsomecasesitcanserveasarewardandreinforcethebehavior.Thusifthealcoholicpersonhaslearnedtodrinkunderconditionsofbothrewardandpunishmenteithertypeofconditionmaytriggerreneweddrinking. Theauthorprovidesenoughinformationtoanswerthequestionof
Oneofthemanytheoriesaboutalcoholismisthelearningandreinforcementtheorywhichexplainsalcoholismbyconsideringalcoholdrinkingasareflexresponsetosomestimulusandasawaytoreduceaninnerdrivestatesuchasfearoranxiety.Characterizinglifesituationsintermsofapproachandavoidancethistheoryholdsthatpersonstendtobedrawntopleasantsituationsorrepelledbyuncleansanityones.Inthelattercasealcoholdrinkingissaidtoreducethetensionorfeelingsofunpleasantnessandtoreplacethemwiththefeelingofpleasuregenerallyobservedinmostpersonsaftertheyhaveconsumedoneormoredrinks. Someexperimentalevidencetendstoshowthatalcoholreducesfearinanapproach-avoidancesituation.Congertrainedonegroupofratstoapproachafoodgoalandtrainedanothergrouptoavoidelectricshock.Afteraninjectionofalcoholthepullawayfromtheshockwasmeasurablyweakerwhilethepulltowardfoodwasunchanged. Theobvioustroublesexperiencedbyalcoholicpersonsappeartocontradictthelearningtheoryintheexplanationofalcoholism.Thediscomfortpainandpunishmenttheyexperienceshouldpresumablydiscouragethealcoholicsfromdrinking.Thefactthatalcoholicpersonscontinuetodrinkinthefaceoffamilydiscordlossofjobandillnessisexplainedbytheproximityofthedriveofreductiontotheconsumptionofalcohol;thatisalcoholhastheimmediateeffectofreducingtensionwhiletheunpleasantconsequencesofdrunkenbehaviorcameonlylater.Thelearningpatternthereforefavorstheestablishmentandrepetitionoftheresorttoalcohol. Infacttheanxietiesandfeelingsofguiltcausedbytheconsequencesofexcessivealcoholdrinkingmaythemselvesbecomethesignalforanothertimeofalcoholabuse.Thewayinwhichthedesireforanotherdrinkcouldbecausedbyanxietyisexplainedbytheprocessofstimulusgeneralization:conditionsoreventssecuringatthetimeofreinforcementtendtoacquireallthefeaturesofstimuli.Whenalcoholisconsumedinassociationwithastateofanxietyorleertheemotionalstateitselftakesonthepropertiesofastimulusthustriggeringanothertimeofdrinking. Theroleofpunishmentisbecomingincreasinglyimportantinexplainingacauseofalcoholismbasedontheprinciplesoflearningtheory.Whilepunishmentmayservetosuppressaresponseexperimentshaveshownthatinsomecasesitcanserveasarewardandreinforcethebehavior.Thusifthealcoholicpersonhaslearnedtodrinkunderconditionsofbothrewardandpunishmenteithertypeofconditionmaytriggerreneweddrinking. Conger’sexperimentwithtwogroupsofrats
Oneofthemanytheoriesaboutalcoholismisthelearningandreinforcementtheorywhichexplainsalcoholismbyconsideringalcoholdrinkingasareflexresponsetosomestimulusandasawaytoreduceaninnerdrivestatesuchasfearoranxiety.Characterizinglifesituationsintermsofapproachandavoidancethistheoryholdsthatpersonstendtobedrawntopleasantsituationsorrepelledbyuncleansanityones.Inthelattercasealcoholdrinkingissaidtoreducethetensionorfeelingsofunpleasantnessandtoreplacethemwiththefeelingofpleasuregenerallyobservedinmostpersonsaftertheyhaveconsumedoneormoredrinks. Someexperimentalevidencetendstoshowthatalcoholreducesfearinanapproach-avoidancesituation.Congertrainedonegroupofratstoapproachafoodgoalandtrainedanothergrouptoavoidelectricshock.Afteraninjectionofalcoholthepullawayfromtheshockwasmeasurablyweakerwhilethepulltowardfoodwasunchanged. Theobvioustroublesexperiencedbyalcoholicpersonsappeartocontradictthelearningtheoryintheexplanationofalcoholism.Thediscomfortpainandpunishmenttheyexperienceshouldpresumablydiscouragethealcoholicsfromdrinking.Thefactthatalcoholicpersonscontinuetodrinkinthefaceoffamilydiscordlossofjobandillnessisexplainedbytheproximityofthedriveofreductiontotheconsumptionofalcohol;thatisalcoholhastheimmediateeffectofreducingtensionwhiletheunpleasantconsequencesofdrunkenbehaviorcameonlylater.Thelearningpatternthereforefavorstheestablishmentandrepetitionoftheresorttoalcohol. Infacttheanxietiesandfeelingsofguiltcausedbytheconsequencesofexcessivealcoholdrinkingmaythemselvesbecomethesignalforanothertimeofalcoholabuse.Thewayinwhichthedesireforanotherdrinkcouldbecausedbyanxietyisexplainedbytheprocessofstimulusgeneralization:conditionsoreventssecuringatthetimeofreinforcementtendtoacquireallthefeaturesofstimuli.Whenalcoholisconsumedinassociationwithastateofanxietyorleertheemotionalstateitselftakesonthepropertiesofastimulusthustriggeringanothertimeofdrinking. Theroleofpunishmentisbecomingincreasinglyimportantinexplainingacauseofalcoholismbasedontheprinciplesoflearningtheory.Whilepunishmentmayservetosuppressaresponseexperimentshaveshownthatinsomecasesitcanserveasarewardandreinforcethebehavior.Thusifthealcoholicpersonhaslearnedtodrinkunderconditionsofbothrewardandpunishmenteithertypeofconditionmaytriggerreneweddrinking. Themainpurposeofthetextisto
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