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近年来我国一些部门在修订法律、出台政策的过程中，广征民意，社会反响强烈，其中各种人性化举措尤其受到好评。2005年7月初，全国__公布物权法草案，成为我国第12部在通过前向全民公开征求意见的法律...
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酸雨对生物危害极大近年来我国一些地区已经成为酸雨多发区酸雨污染的范围和程度已经引起人们的密切关注下列
氮气
二氧化硫
水蒸气
氧气
近年来我国一些城市通过建蓄水池来缓解城市内涝该措施改变的水循环环节主要是
降水
蒸发
径流输送
水汽输送
近年来我国一些城市通过建蓄水池来缓解城市内涝该措施改变的水循环环节主要是
降水
蒸发
径流输送
水汽输送
近年来我国一些城市在道路两侧设置了摄像头监控车辆行驶的情况发现违章行为就根据摄像头拍摄的录像直接作出
近年来我国一些大型企业集团常采用的质量管理组织架构形式是
直线-职能制
职能制
矩阵制
直线制
近年来我国推进依法行政建设法治政府的步伐加快许多地方不断出台一些新的举措开设热线电话发展电子政务兴建
近年来我国出台了诸如家电下乡汽车下乡摩托车下乡等一系列刺激农村消费的政策结合实际说明出台这些政策的背
近年来我国一些省市陆续向群众开放政府红头文件的查阅这一举措深受群众欢迎被人民称为阳光工程群众查阅政府
①②③
②③④
①③④
①②④
近年来我国一些特大城市正在积极投入轻轨地铁和郊区铁路建设目前已建成第一条城 市铁路线路
上海
深圳
北京
厦门
近年来我国一些省市陆续向群众开放政府红头文件的查阅从群众角度讲有利于①群众了解政策维护自身的合法权益
①②③
①②④
②③④
①③④
近年来我国新的消费热点持续升温居民消费结构不断升级汽车通信器材商品 房等一些新的消费热点升温居民消费
我国经济的快速发展
近年来物价水平的下降
居民收入水平的提高
国家实行刺激居民消费的政策
政策性防灾要制定与完善法律法规标准体系近年来我国立法机关相继制订与完善了一些法规但不包括
《城市规划法》
《历史文物保护法》
《防洪法》
《城市规划编制办法》
《消防法》
近年来我国一些城市通过建蓄水池来缓解城市内涝该措施改变的水循环环节是
降水
蒸发
径流输送
水汽输送
近年来我国推进依法行政建设法治政府的步伐加快许多地方不断出台一些新的举措开设热线电话发展电子政务兴建
在人口再生产类型转变过程中导致一些发达国家近年来人口数量增长的主要原因可能是
采取了鼓励人口剩余的政策
生活水平的提高使人口平均寿命延长
大量外籍移民的迁入
人们生育观念的改变
背景近年来少数地方出台了一些政策用行政手段阻止外地产品进入本地市场上演了围歼外地产品的啤酒大战化肥大
背景材料近年来少数地方出台了一些政策用行政手段阻止外地产品进入本地市场上演了围歼外地产品的啤酒大战化
背景近年来少数地方出台了一些政策用行政手段阻止外地产品进入本地市场上演了围歼外地产品的啤酒大战化肥大
近年来我国新的消费热点持续升温居民消费结构不断升级汽车通信器材商品房等一些新的消费热点升温居民消费结
我国经济的快速发展
近年来物价水平的下降
居民收入水平的下降
国家实行刺激居民消费的政策
近年来我国一些特大城市正在积极投入轻轨地铁和郊区铁路的建设目前已建成第一条城市铁路线路
上海
深圳
北京
厦门
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Theessentialweaknessoftheoldandtraditionaleducationwasnotjustthatitemphasizedthenecessityforprovisionofdefinitesubject-matterandactivities.Thesethingsarenecessitiesforanythingthatcanrightlybecallededucation.Theweaknessandevilwasthattheimaginationofeducatorsdidnotgobeyondprovisionofafixedandrigidenvironmentofsubject-matteronedrawnmoreoverfromsourcesaltogethertooremotefromtheexperiencesofthepupil.Whatisneededintheneweducationismoreattentionnotlesstosubject-matterandtoprogressintechnique.ButwhenIsaymoreIdonotmeanmoreinquantityofthesameoldkind.Imeananimaginativevisionwhichseesthatnoprescribedandready-madeschemecanpossiblydeterminetheexactsubject-matterthatwillbestpromotetheeducativegrowthofeveryindividualyoungperson;thateverynewindividualsetsanewproblem;thathecallsforatleastasomewhatdifferentemphasisinsubject-matterpresented.Thereisnothingmoreblindlystupidthantheconventionwhichsupposesthatthematteractuallycontainedintextbooksofarithmetichistorygeographyetc.isjustwhatwillfurthertheeducationaldevelopmentofallchildren. Butwithdrawalfromthehardandfastandnarrowcontentsoftheoldcurriculumisonlythenegativesideofthematter.Ifwedonotgofarinthepositivedirectionofprovidingabodyofsubject-mattermuchrichermorevariedandflexibleandalsointruthmoredefinitejudgedintermsoftheexperienceofthosebeingeducatedthantraditionaleducationsuppliedweshalltendtoleaveaneducationalvacuuminwhichanythingmayhappen.Completeisolationisimpossibleinnature.Theyoungliveinsomeenvironmentwhetherweintenditornotandthisenvironmentisconstantlyinteractingwithwhatchildrenandyouthbringtoit.andtheresultistheshapingoftheirinterestsmindsandcharacter―eithereducativelyormis-educatively.Iftheprofessededucatorgivesuphisresponsibilityforjudgingandselectingthekindofenvironmentthathisbestunderstandingleadshimtothinkwillbecontributivetogrowththentheyoungareleftatthemercyofalltheunorganizedandcasualforcesofthemodernsocialenvironmentthatinevitablyplayuponthemaslongastheylive.Intheeducativeenvironmenttheknowledgejudgmentandexperienceoftheteacherisagreaternotasmallerfactorthanitisinthetraditionalschool.Thedifferenceisthattheteacheroperatesnotasajudgesetonhighandmarkedbyarbitraryauthoritybutasafriendlyco-partnerandguideinacommonenterprise. Theauthoragitatesreformschieflyinthe
Scienceisanenterpriseconcernedwithgaininginformationaboutcausalityortherelationshipbetweencauseandeffect.Asimpleexampleofacauseisthemovementofapaddleasitstrikesaping-pongball;theeffectisthemovementoftheballthroughtheair.Inpsychologyandothersciencesthewordcauseisoftenreplacedbythetermindependentvariable.Thistermimpliesthattheexperimenterisoftenfreetovarytheindependentvariableasheorshedesiresforexampletheexperimentercancontrolthespeedofthepaddleasitstrikestheball.Thetermdependentvariablereplacesthewordeffectandthistermisusedbecausetheeffectdependsonsomecharacteristicoftheindependentvariabletheflightoftheballdependsonthespeedofthepaddle.Theconventionsofsciencedemandthatboththeindependentanddependentvariablesbeobservableeventsasisthecaseintheping-pongexample.Inthecaseofbiorhythmtheorytheindependentvariableisthenumberofdaysthathaveelapsedbetweenaperson’’sdateofbirthandsometestday.Thedependentvariableistheperson’’slevelofperformanceonsomespecifiedtaskonthetestday.Noticethatalthoughtheexperimenterisnotfreetochooseabirthdayforagivenindividualpersonswithdifferentdatesofbirthcanbetestedonthesamedayorasinglesubjectcanbetestedonseveraldifferentdays. Inordertopredicttherelationshipbetweenindependentanddependentvariablesmanyscientifictheoriesmakeuseofwhatarecalledinterveningvariables.Interveningvariablesarepurelytheoreticalconceptsthatcannotbeobserveddirectly.Topredicttheflightofaping-pongballNewtonianphysicsreliesonanumberofinterveningvariablesincludingforcemassairresistanceandgravity.Youcanprobablyanticipatethattheinterveningvariablesofbiorhythmtheoryarethethreebodilycycleswiththeirspecifiedtimeperiods.Itshouldbeemphasizedthatnotallpsychologicaltheoriesincludeinterveningvariablesandsomepsychologistsobjecttotheirusepreciselybecausetheyarenotdirectlyobservable. Thefinalmajorcomponentofascientifictheoryisitssyntaxortherulesanddefinitionsthatstatehowtheindependentanddependentvariablesaretobemeasuredandthatspecifytherelationshipsamongindependentvariablesinterveningvariablesanddependentvariables.Itisthesyntaxofbiorhythmtheorythatdescribeshowtouseaperson’’sbirthdaytocalculatethecurrentstatusofthethreecycles.Thesyntaxalsorelatesthecyclestothedependentvariableperformancebystatingthatpositivecyclesshouldcausehighlevelsofperformancewhereasloworcriticalcyclesshouldcauselowperformancelevels.Tosummarizethecomponentsofascientifictheorycanbedividedintofourmajorcategories:independentvariablesdependentvariablesinterveningvariablesandsyntax. Theexampleoftheping-pongballisusedto
Theessentialweaknessoftheoldandtraditionaleducationwasnotjustthatitemphasizedthenecessityforprovisionofdefinitesubject-matterandactivities.Thesethingsarenecessitiesforanythingthatcanrightlybecallededucation.Theweaknessandevilwasthattheimaginationofeducatorsdidnotgobeyondprovisionofafixedandrigidenvironmentofsubject-matteronedrawnmoreoverfromsourcesaltogethertooremotefromtheexperiencesofthepupil.Whatisneededintheneweducationismoreattentionnotlesstosubject-matterandtoprogressintechnique.ButwhenIsaymoreIdonotmeanmoreinquantityofthesameoldkind.Imeananimaginativevisionwhichseesthatnoprescribedandready-madeschemecanpossiblydeterminetheexactsubject-matterthatwillbestpromotetheeducativegrowthofeveryindividualyoungperson;thateverynewindividualsetsanewproblem;thathecallsforatleastasomewhatdifferentemphasisinsubject-matterpresented.Thereisnothingmoreblindlystupidthantheconventionwhichsupposesthatthematteractuallycontainedintextbooksofarithmetichistorygeographyetc.isjustwhatwillfurthertheeducationaldevelopmentofallchildren. Butwithdrawalfromthehardandfastandnarrowcontentsoftheoldcurriculumisonlythenegativesideofthematter.Ifwedonotgofarinthepositivedirectionofprovidingabodyofsubject-mattermuchrichermorevariedandflexibleandalsointruthmoredefinitejudgedintermsoftheexperienceofthosebeingeducatedthantraditionaleducationsuppliedweshalltendtoleaveaneducationalvacuuminwhichanythingmayhappen.Completeisolationisimpossibleinnature.Theyoungliveinsomeenvironmentwhetherweintenditornotandthisenvironmentisconstantlyinteractingwithwhatchildrenandyouthbringtoit.andtheresultistheshapingoftheirinterestsmindsandcharacter―eithereducativelyormis-educatively.Iftheprofessededucatorgivesuphisresponsibilityforjudgingandselectingthekindofenvironmentthathisbestunderstandingleadshimtothinkwillbecontributivetogrowththentheyoungareleftatthemercyofalltheunorganizedandcasualforcesofthemodernsocialenvironmentthatinevitablyplayuponthemaslongastheylive.Intheeducativeenvironmenttheknowledgejudgmentandexperienceoftheteacherisagreaternotasmallerfactorthanitisinthetraditionalschool.Thedifferenceisthattheteacheroperatesnotasajudgesetonhighandmarkedbyarbitraryauthoritybutasafriendlyco-partnerandguideinacommonenterprise. Itseemsthatneweducationalistsfavor
Scienceinpracticedependsfarlessontheexperimentsitpreparesthanonthepreparednessofthemindsofthemenwhowatchtheexperiments.SirIsaacNewtonsupposedlydiscoveredgravitythroughthefallofanapple.Appleshadbeenfallinginmanyplacesforcenturiesandthousandsofpeoplehadseenthemfall.ButNewtonforyearshadbeencuriousaboutthecauseoftheorbitalmotionofthemoonandplanets.WhatkepttheminplaceWhydidn’’ttheyfalloutoftheskyThefactthattheapplefelldowntowardtheearthandnotupintothetreeansweredthequestionhehadbeenaskinghimselfaboutthoselargerfruitsoftheheavensthemoonandtheplanets. HowmanymenwouldhaveconsideredthepossibilityofanapplefallingupintothetreeNewtondidbecausehewasnottryingtopredictanything.Hewasjustwondering.Hismindwasreadyfortheunpredictable.Unpredictabilityispartoftheessentialnatureofresearch.Ifyoudon’’thaveunpredictablethingsyoudon’’thaveresearch.Scientiststendtoforgetthiswhenwritingtheircutanddriedreportsforthetechnicaljournalsbuthistoryisfilledwithexamplesofit. Intalkingtosomescientistsparticularlyyoungeronesyoumightgathertheimpressionthattheyfindthescientificmethodasubstituteforimaginativethought.I’’veattendedresearchconferenceswhereascientisthasbeenaskedwhathethinksabouttheadvisabilityofcontinuingacertainexperiment.Thescientisthasfrownedlookedatthegraphsandsaidthedataarestillinconclusive.WeknowthatthemenfromthebudgetofficehavesaidbutwhatdoyouthinkIsitworthwhilegoingonWhatdoyouthinkwemightexpectThescientisthasbeenshockedathavingevenbeenaskedtospeculate. Whatthisamountstoofcourseisthatthescientisthasbecomethevictimofhisownwritings.Hehasputforwardunquestionedclaimssoconsistentlythathenotonlybelievesthemhimselfbuthasconvincedindustrialandbusinessmanagementthattheyaretrue.Ifexperimentsareplannedandcarriedoutaccordingtoplanasfaithfullyasthereportsinthesciencejournalsindicatethenitisperfectlylogicalformanagementtoexpectresearchtoproduceresultsmeasurableindollarsandcents.Itisentirelyreasonableforauditorstobelievethatscientistswhoknowexactlywheretheyaregoingandhowtheywillgetthereshouldnotbedistractedbythenecessityofkeepingoneeyeonthecashregisterwhiletheothereyeisonthemicroscope.Norifregularityandconformitytoastandardpatternareasdesirabletothescientistasthewritingofhispaperswouldappeartoreflectismanagementtobeblamedfordiscriminatingagainsttheoddballsamongresearchersinfavorofmoreconventionalthinkerswhoworkwellwiththeteam. Itseemsthatsomeyoungscientists_______________.
Inlessthan30years’’timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain’’snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironmentsallowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall. 71.Therewillbetelevisionchatshowshostedbyrobotsandcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.72.Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithpersonalitychipscomputerswithin-builtpersonalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantoolsrelaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-televisionanddigitalagewillhavearrived. AccordingtoBT’’sfuturologistIanPearsontheseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillenniumaperiodof1000yearswhensupercomputerswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife. 73.Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsorkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicineincludinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040. Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.BylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystemcomputerscouldpickupwhatwefeelandhopefullysimulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironmentsratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeckhesays.74.ButthatPearsonpointsoutisonlythestartofman-machineintegration:Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimatelyleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury. ThroughhisresearchPearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.Howevertherearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-that-lighttravelwillbeavailableorwhenhumancloningwillbeperfectedorwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswillforexamplecauseproblemsin2010whilethearrivalofsyntheticlifelikerobotswillmeanpeoplemaynotbeabletodistinguishbetweentheirhumanfriendsandthedroids.75.Andhomeapplianceswillalsobecomesosmartthatcontrollingandoperatingthemwillresultinthebreakoutofanewpsychologicaldisorder--kitchenrage.
Scienceinpracticedependsfarlessontheexperimentsitpreparesthanonthepreparednessofthemindsofthemenwhowatchtheexperiments.SirIsaacNewtonsupposedlydiscoveredgravitythroughthefallofanapple.Appleshadbeenfallinginmanyplacesforcenturiesandthousandsofpeoplehadseenthemfall.ButNewtonforyearshadbeencuriousaboutthecauseoftheorbitalmotionofthemoonandplanets.WhatkepttheminplaceWhydidn’’ttheyfalloutoftheskyThefactthattheapplefelldowntowardtheearthandnotupintothetreeansweredthequestionhehadbeenaskinghimselfaboutthoselargerfruitsoftheheavensthemoonandtheplanets. HowmanymenwouldhaveconsideredthepossibilityofanapplefallingupintothetreeNewtondidbecausehewasnottryingtopredictanything.Hewasjustwondering.Hismindwasreadyfortheunpredictable.Unpredictabilityispartoftheessentialnatureofresearch.Ifyoudon’’thaveunpredictablethingsyoudon’’thaveresearch.Scientiststendtoforgetthiswhenwritingtheircutanddriedreportsforthetechnicaljournalsbuthistoryisfilledwithexamplesofit. Intalkingtosomescientistsparticularlyyoungeronesyoumightgathertheimpressionthattheyfindthescientificmethodasubstituteforimaginativethought.I’’veattendedresearchconferenceswhereascientisthasbeenaskedwhathethinksabouttheadvisabilityofcontinuingacertainexperiment.Thescientisthasfrownedlookedatthegraphsandsaidthedataarestillinconclusive.WeknowthatthemenfromthebudgetofficehavesaidbutwhatdoyouthinkIsitworthwhilegoingonWhatdoyouthinkwemightexpectThescientisthasbeenshockedathavingevenbeenaskedtospeculate. Whatthisamountstoofcourseisthatthescientisthasbecomethevictimofhisownwritings.Hehasputforwardunquestionedclaimssoconsistentlythathenotonlybelievesthemhimselfbuthasconvincedindustrialandbusinessmanagementthattheyaretrue.Ifexperimentsareplannedandcarriedoutaccordingtoplanasfaithfullyasthereportsinthesciencejournalsindicatethenitisperfectlylogicalformanagementtoexpectresearchtoproduceresultsmeasurableindollarsandcents.Itisentirelyreasonableforauditorstobelievethatscientistswhoknowexactlywheretheyaregoingandhowtheywillgetthereshouldnotbedistractedbythenecessityofkeepingoneeyeonthecashregisterwhiletheothereyeisonthemicroscope.Norifregularityandconformitytoastandardpatternareasdesirabletothescientistasthewritingofhispaperswouldappeartoreflectismanagementtobeblamedfordiscriminatingagainsttheoddballsamongresearchersinfavorofmoreconventionalthinkerswhoworkwellwiththeteam. TheauthorwantstoprovewiththeexampleofIsaacNewtonthat____________.
Scienceisanenterpriseconcernedwithgaininginformationaboutcausalityortherelationshipbetweencauseandeffect.Asimpleexampleofacauseisthemovementofapaddleasitstrikesaping-pongball;theeffectisthemovementoftheballthroughtheair.Inpsychologyandothersciencesthewordcauseisoftenreplacedbythetermindependentvariable.Thistermimpliesthattheexperimenterisoftenfreetovarytheindependentvariableasheorshedesiresforexampletheexperimentercancontrolthespeedofthepaddleasitstrikestheball.Thetermdependentvariablereplacesthewordeffectandthistermisusedbecausetheeffectdependsonsomecharacteristicoftheindependentvariabletheflightoftheballdependsonthespeedofthepaddle.Theconventionsofsciencedemandthatboththeindependentanddependentvariablesbeobservableeventsasisthecaseintheping-pongexample.Inthecaseofbiorhythmtheorytheindependentvariableisthenumberofdaysthathaveelapsedbetweenaperson’’sdateofbirthandsometestday.Thedependentvariableistheperson’’slevelofperformanceonsomespecifiedtaskonthetestday.Noticethatalthoughtheexperimenterisnotfreetochooseabirthdayforagivenindividualpersonswithdifferentdatesofbirthcanbetestedonthesamedayorasinglesubjectcanbetestedonseveraldifferentdays. Inordertopredicttherelationshipbetweenindependentanddependentvariablesmanyscientifictheoriesmakeuseofwhatarecalledinterveningvariables.Interveningvariablesarepurelytheoreticalconceptsthatcannotbeobserveddirectly.Topredicttheflightofaping-pongballNewtonianphysicsreliesonanumberofinterveningvariablesincludingforcemassairresistanceandgravity.Youcanprobablyanticipatethattheinterveningvariablesofbiorhythmtheoryarethethreebodilycycleswiththeirspecifiedtimeperiods.Itshouldbeemphasizedthatnotallpsychologicaltheoriesincludeinterveningvariablesandsomepsychologistsobjecttotheirusepreciselybecausetheyarenotdirectlyobservable. Thefinalmajorcomponentofascientifictheoryisitssyntaxortherulesanddefinitionsthatstatehowtheindependentanddependentvariablesaretobemeasuredandthatspecifytherelationshipsamongindependentvariablesinterveningvariablesanddependentvariables.Itisthesyntaxofbiorhythmtheorythatdescribeshowtouseaperson’’sbirthdaytocalculatethecurrentstatusofthethreecycles.Thesyntaxalsorelatesthecyclestothedependentvariableperformancebystatingthatpositivecyclesshouldcausehighlevelsofperformancewhereasloworcriticalcyclesshouldcauselowperformancelevels.Tosummarizethecomponentsofascientifictheorycanbedividedintofourmajorcategories:independentvariablesdependentvariablesinterveningvariablesandsyntax. Thewordsyntaxusedinthelastparagraphreferstothe
Yourofficeisinbadneedofanewcopier.WritealettertotheRBMManufacturingCompanytoindicate: 1themodelofcopieryouneed 2itsworkingloadrequiredand 3inquiryaboutpricewarrantyandservice. Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyournameattheendoftheletter.UseLiMinginstead.Youdonotneedtowritetheaddress.10points
Inlessthan30years’’timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain’’snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironmentsallowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall. 71.Therewillbetelevisionchatshowshostedbyrobotsandcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.72.Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithpersonalitychipscomputerswithin-builtpersonalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantoolsrelaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-televisionanddigitalagewillhavearrived. AccordingtoBT’’sfuturologistIanPearsontheseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillenniumaperiodof1000yearswhensupercomputerswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife. 73.Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsorkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicineincludinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040. Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.BylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystemcomputerscouldpickupwhatwefeelandhopefullysimulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironmentsratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeckhesays.74.ButthatPearsonpointsoutisonlythestartofman-machineintegration:Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimatelyleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury. ThroughhisresearchPearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.Howevertherearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-that-lighttravelwillbeavailableorwhenhumancloningwillbeperfectedorwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswillforexamplecauseproblemsin2010whilethearrivalofsyntheticlifelikerobotswillmeanpeoplemaynotbeabletodistinguishbetweentheirhumanfriendsandthedroids.75.Andhomeapplianceswillalsobecomesosmartthatcontrollingandoperatingthemwillresultinthebreakoutofanewpsychologicaldisorder--kitchenrage.
Thatexperiencesinfluencesubsequentbehaviourisevidenceofanobviousbutneverthelessremarkableactivitycalledremembering.Learningcouldnotoccurwithoutthefunctionpopularlynamedmemory.Constantpracticehassuchaneffectonmemoryastoleadtoskilfulperformanceonthepianotorecitationofapoemandeventoreadingandunderstandingthesewords.So-calledintelligentbehaviourdemandsmemoryrememberingbeingaprimaryrequirementforreasoning.Theabilitytosolveanyproblemoreventorecognizethataproblemexistsdependsonmemory.Typicallythedecisiontocrossastreetisbasedonrememberingmanyearlierexperiences. Practiceorreviewtendstobuildandmaintainmemoryforataskorforanylearnedmaterial.Overaperiodofnopracticewhathasbeenlearnedtendstobeforgotten;andtheadaptiveconsequencesmaynotseemobvious.Yetdramaticinstancesofsuddenforgettingcanbeseentobeadaptive.Inthissensetheabilitytoforgetcanbeinterpretedtohavesurvivedthroughaprocessofnaturalselectioninanimals.Indeedwhenone’’smemoryofanemotionallypainfulexperienceleadstoseriousanxietyforgettingmayproducerelief.Neverthelessanevolutionaryinterpretationmightmakeitdifficulttounderstandhowthecommonlygradualprocessofforgettingsurvivednaturalselection. Inthinkingabouttheevolutionofmemorytogetherwithallitspossibleaspectsitishelpfultoconsiderwhatwouldhappenifmemoriesfailedtofade.Forgettingclearlyaidsorientationintimesinceoldmemoriesweakenandthenewtendtostandoutprovidingcluesforinferringduration.Withoutforgettingadaptiveabilitywouldsuffer;forexamplelearnedbehaviourthatmighthavebeencorrectadecadeagomaynolongerbe.Casesarerecordedofpeoplewhobyordinarystandardsforgotsolittlethattheireverydayactivitieswerefullofconfusion.Thusforgettingseemstoservethesurvivaloftheindividualandthespecies. Anotherlineofthoughtassumesamemorystoragesystemoflimitedcapacitythatprovidesadaptiveflexibilityspecificallythroughforgetting.Inthisviewcontinualadjustmentsaremadebetweenlearningormemorystorageinputandforgettingoutput.Indeedthereisevidencethattherateatwhichindividualsforgetisdirectlyrelatedtohowmuchtheyhavelearned.Suchdataoffergrosssupportofcontemporarymodelsofmemorythatassumeaninput-outputbalance. Fromtheevolutionarypointofview________________.
Thatexperiencesinfluencesubsequentbehaviourisevidenceofanobviousbutneverthelessremarkableactivitycalledremembering.Learningcouldnotoccurwithoutthefunctionpopularlynamedmemory.Constantpracticehassuchaneffectonmemoryastoleadtoskilfulperformanceonthepianotorecitationofapoemandeventoreadingandunderstandingthesewords.So-calledintelligentbehaviourdemandsmemoryrememberingbeingaprimaryrequirementforreasoning.Theabilitytosolveanyproblemoreventorecognizethataproblemexistsdependsonmemory.Typicallythedecisiontocrossastreetisbasedonrememberingmanyearlierexperiences. Practiceorreviewtendstobuildandmaintainmemoryforataskorforanylearnedmaterial.Overaperiodofnopracticewhathasbeenlearnedtendstobeforgotten;andtheadaptiveconsequencesmaynotseemobvious.Yetdramaticinstancesofsuddenforgettingcanbeseentobeadaptive.Inthissensetheabilitytoforgetcanbeinterpretedtohavesurvivedthroughaprocessofnaturalselectioninanimals.Indeedwhenone’’smemoryofanemotionallypainfulexperienceleadstoseriousanxietyforgettingmayproducerelief.Neverthelessanevolutionaryinterpretationmightmakeitdifficulttounderstandhowthecommonlygradualprocessofforgettingsurvivednaturalselection. Inthinkingabouttheevolutionofmemorytogetherwithallitspossibleaspectsitishelpfultoconsiderwhatwouldhappenifmemoriesfailedtofade.Forgettingclearlyaidsorientationintimesinceoldmemoriesweakenandthenewtendtostandoutprovidingcluesforinferringduration.Withoutforgettingadaptiveabilitywouldsuffer;forexamplelearnedbehaviourthatmighthavebeencorrectadecadeagomaynolongerbe.Casesarerecordedofpeoplewhobyordinarystandardsforgotsolittlethattheireverydayactivitieswerefullofconfusion.Thusforgettingseemstoservethesurvivaloftheindividualandthespecies. Anotherlineofthoughtassumesamemorystoragesystemoflimitedcapacitythatprovidesadaptiveflexibilityspecificallythroughforgetting.Inthisviewcontinualadjustmentsaremadebetweenlearningormemorystorageinputandforgettingoutput.Indeedthereisevidencethattherateatwhichindividualsforgetisdirectlyrelatedtohowmuchtheyhavelearned.Suchdataoffergrosssupportofcontemporarymodelsofmemorythatassumeaninput-outputbalance. Fromthelastparagraphweknowthat________________.
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