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Comparisons were drawn between the development of television in the 20th century and the diffusion o...
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Wesometimeshearthatessaysareanold-fashionedform.thatso-and-soisthelastessayistbutthefactsofthemarketplacearguequiteotherwise.Essaysofnearlyanykindaresomucheasierthanshortstoriesforawritertosellsomanymoreseeprintit’’sstrangethatthoughtwofineanthologiescollectionsremainthatpublishtheyear’’sbeststoriesnocomparablecollectionexistsforessays.Suchchangesinthereadingpublic’’stastearen’’talwaystothegoodneedlesstosay.Theartoftellingstoriespredatedevencavepaintingsurely;andifweeverfindourselveslivingincavesagainitwithpaintinganddrummingwillbetheonlyartleftaftermoviesnovelsphotographyessaysbiographyandalltheresthavegonedownthedrain―thearttobuildfrom. Essayshoweverhangsomewhereonalinebetweentwosturdypoles:thisiswhatIthinkandthisiswhatIam.Autobiographieswhicharen’’tnovelsaregenerallyextendedessaysindeed.Apersonalessayislikethehumanvoicetalkingitsorderbeingthemind’’snaturalflowinsteadofasystematizedoutlineofideas.Thoughmorechangeableorinformalthananarticleortreatisesomewhereitcontainsapointwhichisitsrealcenterevenifthepointcouldn’’tbeutteredinfewerwordsthantheessayisthasused.Essaysdon’’tusuallyboildowntoasummaryasarticlesdoandthestyleofthewriterhasanaptoitacombinationofpersonalityandoriginalityandenergeticlooseendsthatstanduplikethenap绒毛onapieceofwoolandcan’’tbebrushedflat.Essaysbelongtotheanimalkingdomwithasurfacethatgeneratessparkslikeacoatoffurcomparedwiththeflatconventionalcottonofthemagazinearticlewriterwhoworksinthevegetablekingdominstead.Butessaysontheotherhandmayhavefewerlevelsthanfictionbecausewearenotsupposedtoarguemuchabouttheirmeaning.Intheolddistinctionbetweenteachingandstorytellingtheessayisthowevercleverlyhetriestoconcealhisintentionsisabitofateacherorreformerandanessayisintendedtoconveythesamepointtoeachofus. Anessayistdoesn’’thavetotellthewholetruthandnothingbutthetruth;hecanshapeorshavehismemoriesaslongasthepurposeisservedofexplainingatruthfulpoint.Apersonalessayfrequentlyisnotautobiographicalataltbutwhatitdoeskeepincommonwithautobiographyisthatthroughitstoneandtumblingprogressionitconveysthequalityoftheauthor’’smind.Nothinggetsintheway.Becauseessaysaredirectlyconcernedwiththemindandthemind’’speculiaritytheveryfreedomthemindpossessesisconferredonthisbranchofliteraturethatdoeshonortoitandthefascinationofthemindisthefascinationoftheessay. TheauthorsuggeststhatiftheStoneAgeshouldcomeupagain
U.S.prisonsarefilledwithdrugoffenders;thenumberofprisonerstripledoverthepast20yearstonearly2millionwith60to70percenttestingpositiveforsubstanceabuseonarrest.Thecountryhasspentbillionsofdollarsattackingtheproblematitsroots.Butthereisgrowingconsensusthatthewarondrughasbeenlost.TheUnitedStatesisstilltheworld’’slargestconsumerofillegalsubstances;cocainecontinuestopourovertheborderfromMexico.Traffictapsintothenationalfrustrationdepictingthehorrorsofbothdrugsandthedrugwar.WithouttakingsidesthefilmilluminatesthenationaldebateandposesonalternativethatAmericansseemincreasinglywillingtoconsider:findingnewwaystotreatratherthanmerelypunishdrugabuse. Policyrevolutions―likelegalizingnarcoticsdrugsproducingsleeporinsensibility―remainadistantdream.ButthereisgrowingpublicawarenessthatthemoneyandenergywastedontryingtochecktheflowofdrugsintotheUnitedStatesmightbebetterspentontryingtocontroldemandinstead.Votersinseveralstatesarefaraheadofthepoliticiansapprovingballotinitiativesthatoffermoretreatmentopinions.Drugscourtsthatallowjudgestousecarrotsandstickstocompelsubstance-abusetreatmenthavegrownfifty-foldsincethemid-1990spartofanewunderstandingthatevenwithfrequentrelapsesreturnstoaformalstatetreatmentismuchlessexpensiveforsocietythanjailandban. Drugaddictionisincreasinglybeingviewedasmoreadiseasethanacrime.Scienceisyieldingcluesaboutthehedonicofpleasureregionofthebrainwhilebreakthroughmedicationsandgreaterunderstandingofthemental-healthproblemsthatunderliemanyaddictionsaregivingtherapistsnewtools. OfficialsacrosstheContinenthavealreadybegunshiftingtheirfocusfrompreventingdrugflowtorehabilitatingmakingabletoliveanormallifeagaindrugusers.ThenewEuropeanUnionDrugsStrategyfor2000-2004makesacommitmenttoincreasingthenumberofsuccessfullytreatedaddicts.GemanyItalyandLuxembourghavetransferredresponsibilityfordrugpolicyfromtheirMinistriesoftheInteriortotheMinistriesofHealthorSocialAffairs.InBritainthegovernmenthassetupaNationalTreatmentAgencytocoordinatetheeffortsofsocial-serviceagenciesandtheDepartmentofHealth.Anddrug-preventionandsupportagenciestherearegettingabout30percentmorefundingthisyear.Changingthemainnationalstrategyfromattackingdrugpusherstorehabilitatingaddictswon’’tcomeeasy.ButslowlysteadilyAmericanslikeEuropeansseemdeterminedtotry. MoreandmoreAmericansfavorallofthefollowingEXCEPT
Forthreedecadeswe’’veheardendlesslyaboutthevirtuesofaerobicincreasingoxygenconsumptionexercise.MedicalauthoritieshavepraisedrunningandjumpingasthekeytogoodhealthandmillionsofAmericanshavetakentothetreadmill踏车toreaptherewards.Butthestoryischanging.EveryonefromtheAmericanHeartAssociationtothesurgeongeneral’’sofficehasrecentlyembracedstrengthtrainingasacomplementtoaerobics.AndasweightliftinghasgonemainstreamsohastheonceobscurepracticeknownasSuperSlowtraining.Enthusiastsclaimthatbypumpingironatasnail’’space-makingeachreprepeatlast14secondsinsteadoftheusualseven-youcansafelyplaceextraordinarydemandsonyourmusclesandcallforthanextraordinaryresponse.Slowliftingmaynotbetheonlyexerciseyouneedassomeadvocatesbelievebutthebenefitsareoftendramatic. Almostanyonecanhandlethisroutine.Theonlyrequirementsarecompletefocusandatolerancefordeepmuscularburn.Foxeachexercise-legpressbenchpressshoulderpressandsoon-yousetthemachinetoprovideonlymoderateresistance.Butasyoudrawouteachrepdeprivingyourselfofimpetustheweightsoonfeelsunbearable.Defyingtheimpulsetostopyoukeepgoinguntilyoucan’’tcompletearep.Thenyousustainyourvaineffortfor10moresecondswhiletheweightsinksgraduallytowarditscradle.IntenseUncomfortableTotally.Butonceyouembracemusclefailureasthegoaloftheworkoutitcanbecomealmostpleasure. Thegoalisnottoburncalorieswhileyou’’reexercisingbuttomakeyourbodyburnthemallthetime.Runningafewmilesmanymakeyousweatbutitexpendsonly100caloriespermileanditdoesn’’tstimulatemuchboneormuscledevelopment.Strengthtrainingdoesn’’tburnmanycalorieseither.Butwhenyoupushamuscletofailureyousetoffapourofphysiologicalchanges.Asthemusclerecoversoverseveraldaysitwillthicken-andthenewmuscletissuewilldemandsustenance.Bythetimeyouaddthreepoundsofmuscleyourbodyrequiresanextra9000caloriesamonthjusttobreakeven.Holdyourdietsteadyandveryquicklyyouarevaporizingbodyfat. Onemighthavebenefitedfromanystrength-trainingprogram.Butadvocatesinsisttheslowtechniqueissaferandmoreeffectivethantraditionalmethods. AccordingtotheauthorSuperSlowtraining
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Ifafarmerwishestosucceedhemusttrytokeepawidegapbetweenhisconsumptionandhisproduction.Hemuststorealargequantityofgrain________consumingallhisgrainimmediately.Hecancontinuetosupporthimselfandhisfamily________heproducesasurplus.Hemustusethissurplusinthreeways:asseedforsowingasaninsurance________theunpredictableeffectsofbadweatherandasacommoditywhichhemustsellinorderto________oldagriculturalimplementsandobtainchemicalfertilizersto______thesoil.Hemayalsoneedmoneytoconstructirrigation______andimprovehisfarminotherways.Ifnosurplusisavailableafarmercannotbe______.Hemusteithersellsomeofhispropertyor________extrafundsintheformofloans.Naturallyhewilltrytoborrowmoneyatalow________ofinterestbutloansofthiskindarenot________obtainable.
Wesometimeshearthatessaysareanold-fashionedform.thatso-and-soisthelastessayistbutthefactsofthemarketplacearguequiteotherwise.Essaysofnearlyanykindaresomucheasierthanshortstoriesforawritertosellsomanymoreseeprintit’’sstrangethatthoughtwofineanthologiescollectionsremainthatpublishtheyear’’sbeststoriesnocomparablecollectionexistsforessays.Suchchangesinthereadingpublic’’stastearen’’talwaystothegoodneedlesstosay.Theartoftellingstoriespredatedevencavepaintingsurely;andifweeverfindourselveslivingincavesagainitwithpaintinganddrummingwillbetheonlyartleftaftermoviesnovelsphotographyessaysbiographyandalltheresthavegonedownthedrain―thearttobuildfrom. Essayshoweverhangsomewhereonalinebetweentwosturdypoles:thisiswhatIthinkandthisiswhatIam.Autobiographieswhicharen’’tnovelsaregenerallyextendedessaysindeed.Apersonalessayislikethehumanvoicetalkingitsorderbeingthemind’’snaturalflowinsteadofasystematizedoutlineofideas.Thoughmorechangeableorinformalthananarticleortreatisesomewhereitcontainsapointwhichisitsrealcenterevenifthepointcouldn’’tbeutteredinfewerwordsthantheessayisthasused.Essaysdon’’tusuallyboildowntoasummaryasarticlesdoandthestyleofthewriterhasanaptoitacombinationofpersonalityandoriginalityandenergeticlooseendsthatstanduplikethenap绒毛onapieceofwoolandcan’’tbebrushedflat.Essaysbelongtotheanimalkingdomwithasurfacethatgeneratessparkslikeacoatoffurcomparedwiththeflatconventionalcottonofthemagazinearticlewriterwhoworksinthevegetablekingdominstead.Butessaysontheotherhandmayhavefewerlevelsthanfictionbecausewearenotsupposedtoarguemuchabouttheirmeaning.Intheolddistinctionbetweenteachingandstorytellingtheessayisthowevercleverlyhetriestoconcealhisintentionsisabitofateacherorreformerandanessayisintendedtoconveythesamepointtoeachofus. Anessayistdoesn’’thavetotellthewholetruthandnothingbutthetruth;hecanshapeorshavehismemoriesaslongasthepurposeisservedofexplainingatruthfulpoint.Apersonalessayfrequentlyisnotautobiographicalataltbutwhatitdoeskeepincommonwithautobiographyisthatthroughitstoneandtumblingprogressionitconveysthequalityoftheauthor’’smind.Nothinggetsintheway.Becauseessaysaredirectlyconcernedwiththemindandthemind’’speculiaritytheveryfreedomthemindpossessesisconferredonthisbranchofliteraturethatdoeshonortoitandthefascinationofthemindisthefascinationoftheessay. EssaysarecharacterizedbyallofthefollowingEXCEPT
U.S.prisonsarefilledwithdrugoffenders;thenumberofprisonerstripledoverthepast20yearstonearly2millionwith60to70percenttestingpositiveforsubstanceabuseonarrest.Thecountryhasspentbillionsofdollarsattackingtheproblematitsroots.Butthereisgrowingconsensusthatthewarondrughasbeenlost.TheUnitedStatesisstilltheworld’’slargestconsumerofillegalsubstances;cocainecontinuestopourovertheborderfromMexico.Traffictapsintothenationalfrustrationdepictingthehorrorsofbothdrugsandthedrugwar.WithouttakingsidesthefilmilluminatesthenationaldebateandposesonalternativethatAmericansseemincreasinglywillingtoconsider:findingnewwaystotreatratherthanmerelypunishdrugabuse. Policyrevolutions―likelegalizingnarcoticsdrugsproducingsleeporinsensibility―remainadistantdream.ButthereisgrowingpublicawarenessthatthemoneyandenergywastedontryingtochecktheflowofdrugsintotheUnitedStatesmightbebetterspentontryingtocontroldemandinstead.Votersinseveralstatesarefaraheadofthepoliticiansapprovingballotinitiativesthatoffermoretreatmentopinions.Drugscourtsthatallowjudgestousecarrotsandstickstocompelsubstance-abusetreatmenthavegrownfifty-foldsincethemid-1990spartofanewunderstandingthatevenwithfrequentrelapsesreturnstoaformalstatetreatmentismuchlessexpensiveforsocietythanjailandban. Drugaddictionisincreasinglybeingviewedasmoreadiseasethanacrime.Scienceisyieldingcluesaboutthehedonicofpleasureregionofthebrainwhilebreakthroughmedicationsandgreaterunderstandingofthemental-healthproblemsthatunderliemanyaddictionsaregivingtherapistsnewtools. OfficialsacrosstheContinenthavealreadybegunshiftingtheirfocusfrompreventingdrugflowtorehabilitatingmakingabletoliveanormallifeagaindrugusers.ThenewEuropeanUnionDrugsStrategyfor2000-2004makesacommitmenttoincreasingthenumberofsuccessfullytreatedaddicts.GemanyItalyandLuxembourghavetransferredresponsibilityfordrugpolicyfromtheirMinistriesoftheInteriortotheMinistriesofHealthorSocialAffairs.InBritainthegovernmenthassetupaNationalTreatmentAgencytocoordinatetheeffortsofsocial-serviceagenciesandtheDepartmentofHealth.Anddrug-preventionandsupportagenciestherearegettingabout30percentmorefundingthisyear.Changingthemainnationalstrategyfromattackingdrugpusherstorehabilitatingaddictswon’’tcomeeasy.ButslowlysteadilyAmericanslikeEuropeansseemdeterminedtotry. Drugaddictionisbeingviewedasadiseasebecause
Theworldisgoingthroughthebiggestwaveofmergersandacquisitionseverwitnessed.TheprocesssweepsfromhyperactiveAmericatoEuropeandreachestheemergingcountrieswithunsurpassedmight.Manyinthesecountriesarelookingatthisprocessandworrying:Won’’tthewaveofbusinessconcentrationturnintoanuncontrollableanti-competitiveforce There’’snoquestionthatthebigaregettingbiggerandmorepowerful.Multinationalcorporationsaccountedforlessthan20%ofinternationaltradein1982.Todaythefigureismorethan25%andgrowingrapidly.Internationalaffiliatesaccountforafast-growingsegmentofproductionineconomiesthatopenupandwelcomeforeigninvestment.InArgentinaforinstanceafterthereformsoftheearly1990smultinationalswentfrom43%toalmost70%oftheindustrialproductionofthe200largestfirms.Thisphenomenonhascreatedseriousconcernsovertheroleofsmallereconomicfirmsofnationalbusinessmenandovertheultimatestabilityoftheworldeconomy. IbelievethatthemostimportantforcesbehindthemassiveM&Awavearethesamethatunderlietheglobalizationprocess:fallingtransportationandcommunicationcostslowertradeandinvestmentbarriersandenlargedmarketsthatrequireenlargedoperationscapableofmeetingcustomers’’demands.Allthesearebeneficialnotdetrimentaltoconsumers.Asproductivitygrowstheworld’’swealthincreases. Examplesofbenefitsorcostsofthecurrentconcentrationwavearescanty.Yetitishardtoimaginethatthemergerofafewoilfirmstodaycouldre-createthesamethreatstocompetitionthatwerefearednearlyacenturyagointheU.S.whentheStandardOiltrustwasbrokenup.ThemergersoftelecomcompaniessuchasWorldComhardlyseembringhigherpricesforconsumersorareductioninthepaceoftechnicalprogress.Onthecontrarythepriceofcommunicationsiscomingdownfast.Incarstooconcentrationisincreasing--witnessDaimlerandChryslerRemaultandNissan--butitdoesnotappearthatconsumersarebeinghurt. Yetthefactremainsthatthemergermovementmustbewatched.AfewweeksagoAlanGreenspanwarnedagainstthemegamergersinthebankingindustry.Whoisgoingtosuperviseregulateandoperateaslenderoflastresortwiththegiganticbanksthatarebeingcreated.’’Won’’tmultinationalsshiftproductionfromoneplacetoanotherwhenanationgetstoostrictaboutinfringementstofaircompetition.’’AndshouldonecountrytakeuponitselftheroleofdefendingcompetitiononissuesthataffectmanyothernationsasintheU.S.vs.Microsoftcase7 AccordingtotheauthoroneofthedrivingforcesbehindM&Awaveis______.
U.S.prisonsarefilledwithdrugoffenders;thenumberofprisonerstripledoverthepast20yearstonearly2millionwith60to70percenttestingpositiveforsubstanceabuseonarrest.Thecountryhasspentbillionsofdollarsattackingtheproblematitsroots.Butthereisgrowingconsensusthatthewarondrughasbeenlost.TheUnitedStatesisstilltheworld’’slargestconsumerofillegalsubstances;cocainecontinuestopourovertheborderfromMexico.Traffictapsintothenationalfrustrationdepictingthehorrorsofbothdrugsandthedrugwar.WithouttakingsidesthefilmilluminatesthenationaldebateandposesonalternativethatAmericansseemincreasinglywillingtoconsider:findingnewwaystotreatratherthanmerelypunishdrugabuse. Policyrevolutions―likelegalizingnarcoticsdrugsproducingsleeporinsensibility―remainadistantdream.ButthereisgrowingpublicawarenessthatthemoneyandenergywastedontryingtochecktheflowofdrugsintotheUnitedStatesmightbebetterspentontryingtocontroldemandinstead.Votersinseveralstatesarefaraheadofthepoliticiansapprovingballotinitiativesthatoffermoretreatmentopinions.Drugscourtsthatallowjudgestousecarrotsandstickstocompelsubstance-abusetreatmenthavegrownfifty-foldsincethemid-1990spartofanewunderstandingthatevenwithfrequentrelapsesreturnstoaformalstatetreatmentismuchlessexpensiveforsocietythanjailandban. Drugaddictionisincreasinglybeingviewedasmoreadiseasethanacrime.Scienceisyieldingcluesaboutthehedonicofpleasureregionofthebrainwhilebreakthroughmedicationsandgreaterunderstandingofthemental-healthproblemsthatunderliemanyaddictionsaregivingtherapistsnewtools. OfficialsacrosstheContinenthavealreadybegunshiftingtheirfocusfrompreventingdrugflowtorehabilitatingmakingabletoliveanormallifeagaindrugusers.ThenewEuropeanUnionDrugsStrategyfor2000-2004makesacommitmenttoincreasingthenumberofsuccessfullytreatedaddicts.GemanyItalyandLuxembourghavetransferredresponsibilityfordrugpolicyfromtheirMinistriesoftheInteriortotheMinistriesofHealthorSocialAffairs.InBritainthegovernmenthassetupaNationalTreatmentAgencytocoordinatetheeffortsofsocial-serviceagenciesandtheDepartmentofHealth.Anddrug-preventionandsupportagenciestherearegettingabout30percentmorefundingthisyear.Changingthemainnationalstrategyfromattackingdrugpusherstorehabilitatingaddictswon’’tcomeeasy.ButslowlysteadilyAmericanslikeEuropeansseemdeterminedtotry. AccordingtothetextU.S.prisoners
Ifafarmerwishestosucceedhemusttrytokeepawidegapbetweenhisconsumptionandhisproduction.Hemuststorealargequantityofgrain________consumingallhisgrainimmediately.Hecancontinuetosupporthimselfandhisfamily________heproducesasurplus.Hemustusethissurplusinthreeways:asseedforsowingasaninsurance________theunpredictableeffectsofbadweatherandasacommoditywhichhemustsellinorderto________oldagriculturalimplementsandobtainchemicalfertilizersto______thesoil.Hemayalsoneedmoneytoconstructirrigation______andimprovehisfarminotherways.Ifnosurplusisavailableafarmercannotbe______.Hemusteithersellsomeofhispropertyor________extrafundsintheformofloans.Naturallyhewilltrytoborrowmoneyatalow________ofinterestbutloansofthiskindarenot________obtainable.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Ifafarmerwishestosucceedhemusttrytokeepawidegapbetweenhisconsumptionandhisproduction.Hemuststorealargequantityofgrain________consumingallhisgrainimmediately.Hecancontinuetosupporthimselfandhisfamily________heproducesasurplus.Hemustusethissurplusinthreeways:asseedforsowingasaninsurance________theunpredictableeffectsofbadweatherandasacommoditywhichhemustsellinorderto________oldagriculturalimplementsandobtainchemicalfertilizersto______thesoil.Hemayalsoneedmoneytoconstructirrigation______andimprovehisfarminotherways.Ifnosurplusisavailableafarmercannotbe______.Hemusteithersellsomeofhispropertyor________extrafundsintheformofloans.Naturallyhewilltrytoborrowmoneyatalow________ofinterestbutloansofthiskindarenot________obtainable.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld. Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Ifafarmerwishestosucceedhemusttrytokeepawidegapbetweenhisconsumptionandhisproduction.Hemuststorealargequantityofgrain________consumingallhisgrainimmediately.Hecancontinuetosupporthimselfandhisfamily________heproducesasurplus.Hemustusethissurplusinthreeways:asseedforsowingasaninsurance________theunpredictableeffectsofbadweatherandasacommoditywhichhemustsellinorderto________oldagriculturalimplementsandobtainchemicalfertilizersto______thesoil.Hemayalsoneedmoneytoconstructirrigation______andimprovehisfarminotherways.Ifnosurplusisavailableafarmercannotbe______.Hemusteithersellsomeofhispropertyor________extrafundsintheformofloans.Naturallyhewilltrytoborrowmoneyatalow________ofinterestbutloansofthiskindarenot________obtainable.
Alargeproportionofthestudiesofbehaviorusedanimalsassubjectsespeciallypigeonsratsandrabbits.Thereareanumberofreasonswhyresearchersinthisfieldfrequentlychoosetoconducttheirexperimentswithnonhumansubjects.Firstofallthepossibilityofaplaceboeffectisminimizedwithanimalsubjects.46Whereasahumansubject’’sbehaviormaybedrasticallyalteredbytheknowledgethatheorsheisbeingobservedthisisunlikelywithanimalsubjectsbecausemoststudieswithanimalsubjectsareconductedinsuchawaythattheanimaldoesnotknowitsbehaviorisbeingmonitoredandrecorded.Furthermoreitisunlikelythatananimalsubjectwillbemotivatedeithertopleaseordispleasetheexperimenteramotivethatcanruinastudywithhumansubjects.Asecondreasonforusinganimalsubjectsisconvenience.Thespeciesmostcommonlyusedassubjectsareeasyandinexpensivetocareforandanimalsofaspecificageandsexcanbeobtainedinanyquantitiestheexperimenterneeds.47Onceanimalsubjectsareobtainedtheirparticipationisasregularastheexperimenter’’s--animalsubjectsneverfailtoshowupfortheirappointmentswhichisunfortunatelynotthecasewithhumansubjects. 48Probablythebiggestadvantageofdomesticatedanimalsubjectsisthattheirenvironmentcanbecontrolledtoamuchgreaterextentthanispossiblewitheitherwildanimalsorhumansubjects.Thisisespeciallyimportantinexperimentsonlearningwherepreviousexperiencecanhavealargeeffectonasubject’’sperformanceinanewlearningsituation.Likewiseifahumansubjecttriestosolvesomemysteryaspartofalearningexperimenttheexperimentercannotbesurehowmanysimilarproblemsthesubjecthasencounteredinhislifetime.49Whenanimalsarebredandraisedinthelaboratoryhowevertheirenvironmentscanbeconstructedtomakesurethattheyhavenocontactwithobjectsoreventssimilartothosetheywillencounterintheexperiment. Afinalreasonforusinganimalsubjectsisthatofcomparativesimplicity.50JustasachildtryingtolearnelectricityisbetteroffstartingwithaflashlightthanaradioresearchersmayhaveabetterchanceofdiscoveringthebasicprinciplesoflearningbyexaminingcreaturesthatarelessintelligentandlesscomplexthanhumanbeingsTheassumptionhereisthatalthoughhumanbeingsdifferfromotheranimalsinsomerespectstheyarealsosimilarinsomerespectsanditisthesecommonalitiesthatcanbeinvestigatedwithanimalsubjects.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Alargeproportionofthestudiesofbehaviorusedanimalsassubjectsespeciallypigeonsratsandrabbits.Thereareanumberofreasonswhyresearchersinthisfieldfrequentlychoosetoconducttheirexperimentswithnonhumansubjects.Firstofallthepossibilityofaplaceboeffectisminimizedwithanimalsubjects.46Whereasahumansubject’’sbehaviormaybedrasticallyalteredbytheknowledgethatheorsheisbeingobservedthisisunlikelywithanimalsubjectsbecausemoststudieswithanimalsubjectsareconductedinsuchawaythattheanimaldoesnotknowitsbehaviorisbeingmonitoredandrecorded.Furthermoreitisunlikelythatananimalsubjectwillbemotivatedeithertopleaseordispleasetheexperimenteramotivethatcanruinastudywithhumansubjects.Asecondreasonforusinganimalsubjectsisconvenience.Thespeciesmostcommonlyusedassubjectsareeasyandinexpensivetocareforandanimalsofaspecificageandsexcanbeobtainedinanyquantitiestheexperimenterneeds.47Onceanimalsubjectsareobtainedtheirparticipationisasregularastheexperimenter’’s--animalsubjectsneverfailtoshowupfortheirappointmentswhichisunfortunatelynotthecasewithhumansubjects. 48Probablythebiggestadvantageofdomesticatedanimalsubjectsisthattheirenvironmentcanbecontrolledtoamuchgreaterextentthanispossiblewitheitherwildanimalsorhumansubjects.Thisisespeciallyimportantinexperimentsonlearningwherepreviousexperiencecanhavealargeeffectonasubject’’sperformanceinanewlearningsituation.Likewiseifahumansubjecttriestosolvesomemysteryaspartofalearningexperimenttheexperimentercannotbesurehowmanysimilarproblemsthesubjecthasencounteredinhislifetime.49Whenanimalsarebredandraisedinthelaboratoryhowevertheirenvironmentscanbeconstructedtomakesurethattheyhavenocontactwithobjectsoreventssimilartothosetheywillencounterintheexperiment. Afinalreasonforusinganimalsubjectsisthatofcomparativesimplicity.50JustasachildtryingtolearnelectricityisbetteroffstartingwithaflashlightthanaradioresearchersmayhaveabetterchanceofdiscoveringthebasicprinciplesoflearningbyexaminingcreaturesthatarelessintelligentandlesscomplexthanhumanbeingsTheassumptionhereisthatalthoughhumanbeingsdifferfromotheranimalsinsomerespectstheyarealsosimilarinsomerespectsanditisthesecommonalitiesthatcanbeinvestigatedwithanimalsubjects.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Directions: Studythefollowingpicturecarefullyandwriteanessayinwhichyoushould 1describethepicture 2analyzethecausesoftheproblemand 3proposepossiblesolutions. Youshouldwriteabout160―200wordsneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.20points
Theworldisgoingthroughthebiggestwaveofmergersandacquisitionseverwitnessed.TheprocesssweepsfromhyperactiveAmericatoEuropeandreachestheemergingcountrieswithunsurpassedmight.Manyinthesecountriesarelookingatthisprocessandworrying:Won’’tthewaveofbusinessconcentrationturnintoanuncontrollableanti-competitiveforce There’’snoquestionthatthebigaregettingbiggerandmorepowerful.Multinationalcorporationsaccountedforlessthan20%ofinternationaltradein1982.Todaythefigureismorethan25%andgrowingrapidly.Internationalaffiliatesaccountforafast-growingsegmentofproductionineconomiesthatopenupandwelcomeforeigninvestment.InArgentinaforinstanceafterthereformsoftheearly1990smultinationalswentfrom43%toalmost70%oftheindustrialproductionofthe200largestfirms.Thisphenomenonhascreatedseriousconcernsovertheroleofsmallereconomicfirmsofnationalbusinessmenandovertheultimatestabilityoftheworldeconomy. IbelievethatthemostimportantforcesbehindthemassiveM&Awavearethesamethatunderlietheglobalizationprocess:fallingtransportationandcommunicationcostslowertradeandinvestmentbarriersandenlargedmarketsthatrequireenlargedoperationscapableofmeetingcustomers’’demands.Allthesearebeneficialnotdetrimentaltoconsumers.Asproductivitygrowstheworld’’swealthincreases. Examplesofbenefitsorcostsofthecurrentconcentrationwavearescanty.Yetitishardtoimaginethatthemergerofafewoilfirmstodaycouldre-createthesamethreatstocompetitionthatwerefearednearlyacenturyagointheU.S.whentheStandardOiltrustwasbrokenup.ThemergersoftelecomcompaniessuchasWorldComhardlyseembringhigherpricesforconsumersorareductioninthepaceoftechnicalprogress.Onthecontrarythepriceofcommunicationsiscomingdownfast.Incarstooconcentrationisincreasing--witnessDaimlerandChryslerRemaultandNissan--butitdoesnotappearthatconsumersarebeinghurt. Yetthefactremainsthatthemergermovementmustbewatched.AfewweeksagoAlanGreenspanwarnedagainstthemegamergersinthebankingindustry.Whoisgoingtosuperviseregulateandoperateaslenderoflastresortwiththegiganticbanksthatarebeingcreated.’’Won’’tmultinationalsshiftproductionfromoneplacetoanotherwhenanationgetstoostrictaboutinfringementstofaircompetition.’’AndshouldonecountrytakeuponitselftheroleofdefendingcompetitiononissuesthataffectmanyothernationsasintheU.S.vs.Microsoftcase7 Towardthenewbusinesswavethewriter’’sattitudecanbesaidtobe______.
Tight-lippedeldersusedtosayIt’’snotwhatyouwantinthisworldbutwhatyouget. Psychologyteachesthatyoudogetwhatyouwantifyouknowwhatyouwantandwanttherightthings. Youcanmakeamentalblueprintofadesireasyouwouldmakeablueprintofahouseandeachofusiscontinuallymakingtheseblueprintsinthegeneralroutineofeverydayliving.Ifweintendtohavefriendstodinnerweplanthemenumakeashoppinglistdecidewhichfoodtocookfirstandsuchplanningisanessentialforanytypeofmealtobeserved. Likewiseifyouwanttofindajobtakeasheetofpaperandwriteabriefaccountofyourself.Inmakingablueprintforajobbeginwithyourselfforwhenyouknowexactlywhatyouhavetoofferyoucanintelligentlyplanwheretosellyourservices. Thisaccountofyourselfisactuallyasketchofyourworkinglifeandshouldincludeeducationexperienceandreferences.Suchanaccountisvaluable.Itcanbereferredtoinfillingoutstandardapplicationblanksandisextremelyhelpfulinpersonalinterviews.Whiletalkingtoyouyourcould-beemployerisdecidingwhetheryoureducationyourexperienceandotherqualificationswillpayhimtoemployyouandyourwaresandabilitiesmustbedisplayedinanorderlyandreasonablyconnectedmanner. Whenyouhavecarefullypreparedablueprintofyourabilitiesanddesiresyouhavesomethingtangibletosell.Thenyouarereadytohuntforajob.Getallthepossibleinformationaboutyourcouldbejob.Makeinquiriesastothedetailsregardingthejobandthefirm.Keepyoureyesandearsopenanduseyourownjudgement.Spendacertainamountoftimeeachdayseekingtheemploymentyouwishforandkeepinmind:Securingajobisyourjobnow. Whenyouhavecarefullypreparedablueprintofyourabilitiesanddesiresyouhavesomething_______________.
Forthreedecadeswe’’veheardendlesslyaboutthevirtuesofaerobicincreasingoxygenconsumptionexercise.MedicalauthoritieshavepraisedrunningandjumpingasthekeytogoodhealthandmillionsofAmericanshavetakentothetreadmill踏车toreaptherewards.Butthestoryischanging.EveryonefromtheAmericanHeartAssociationtothesurgeongeneral’’sofficehasrecentlyembracedstrengthtrainingasacomplementtoaerobics.AndasweightliftinghasgonemainstreamsohastheonceobscurepracticeknownasSuperSlowtraining.Enthusiastsclaimthatbypumpingironatasnail’’space-makingeachreprepeatlast14secondsinsteadoftheusualseven-youcansafelyplaceextraordinarydemandsonyourmusclesandcallforthanextraordinaryresponse.Slowliftingmaynotbetheonlyexerciseyouneedassomeadvocatesbelievebutthebenefitsareoftendramatic. Almostanyonecanhandlethisroutine.Theonlyrequirementsarecompletefocusandatolerancefordeepmuscularburn.Foxeachexercise-legpressbenchpressshoulderpressandsoon-yousetthemachinetoprovideonlymoderateresistance.Butasyoudrawouteachrepdeprivingyourselfofimpetustheweightsoonfeelsunbearable.Defyingtheimpulsetostopyoukeepgoinguntilyoucan’’tcompletearep.Thenyousustainyourvaineffortfor10moresecondswhiletheweightsinksgraduallytowarditscradle.IntenseUncomfortableTotally.Butonceyouembracemusclefailureasthegoaloftheworkoutitcanbecomealmostpleasure. Thegoalisnottoburncalorieswhileyou’’reexercisingbuttomakeyourbodyburnthemallthetime.Runningafewmilesmanymakeyousweatbutitexpendsonly100caloriespermileanditdoesn’’tstimulatemuchboneormuscledevelopment.Strengthtrainingdoesn’’tburnmanycalorieseither.Butwhenyoupushamuscletofailureyousetoffapourofphysiologicalchanges.Asthemusclerecoversoverseveraldaysitwillthicken-andthenewmuscletissuewilldemandsustenance.Bythetimeyouaddthreepoundsofmuscleyourbodyrequiresanextra9000caloriesamonthjusttobreakeven.Holdyourdietsteadyandveryquicklyyouarevaporizingbodyfat. Onemighthavebenefitedfromanystrength-trainingprogram.Butadvocatesinsisttheslowtechniqueissaferandmoreeffectivethantraditionalmethods. Inpracticingslowliftingonehasto
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
YouareacollegegraduateinLaw.Writealettertoalawofficetoapplyforapositionwhichshouldinclude: 1thepositionofyourapplication 2thereasonofyourinterestinthejob 3yourrelatedknowledgeskillsandexperience. Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyournameattheendoftheletter.UseLiMinginstead.Youdonotneedtowritetheaddress.10points
Tight-lippedeldersusedtosayIt’’snotwhatyouwantinthisworldbutwhatyouget. Psychologyteachesthatyoudogetwhatyouwantifyouknowwhatyouwantandwanttherightthings. Youcanmakeamentalblueprintofadesireasyouwouldmakeablueprintofahouseandeachofusiscontinuallymakingtheseblueprintsinthegeneralroutineofeverydayliving.Ifweintendtohavefriendstodinnerweplanthemenumakeashoppinglistdecidewhichfoodtocookfirstandsuchplanningisanessentialforanytypeofmealtobeserved. Likewiseifyouwanttofindajobtakeasheetofpaperandwriteabriefaccountofyourself.Inmakingablueprintforajobbeginwithyourselfforwhenyouknowexactlywhatyouhavetoofferyoucanintelligentlyplanwheretosellyourservices. Thisaccountofyourselfisactuallyasketchofyourworkinglifeandshouldincludeeducationexperienceandreferences.Suchanaccountisvaluable.Itcanbereferredtoinfillingoutstandardapplicationblanksandisextremelyhelpfulinpersonalinterviews.Whiletalkingtoyouyourcould-beemployerisdecidingwhetheryoureducationyourexperienceandotherqualificationswillpayhimtoemployyouandyourwaresandabilitiesmustbedisplayedinanorderlyandreasonablyconnectedmanner. Whenyouhavecarefullypreparedablueprintofyourabilitiesanddesiresyouhavesomethingtangibletosell.Thenyouarereadytohuntforajob.Getallthepossibleinformationaboutyourcouldbejob.Makeinquiriesastothedetailsregardingthejobandthefirm.Keepyoureyesandearsopenanduseyourownjudgement.Spendacertainamountoftimeeachdayseekingtheemploymentyouwishforandkeepinmind:Securingajobisyourjobnow. Ablueprintmadebeforeinvitingafriendtodinnerisusedinthispassageas_______________.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Ifafarmerwishestosucceedhemusttrytokeepawidegapbetweenhisconsumptionandhisproduction.Hemuststorealargequantityofgrain________consumingallhisgrainimmediately.Hecancontinuetosupporthimselfandhisfamily________heproducesasurplus.Hemustusethissurplusinthreeways:asseedforsowingasaninsurance________theunpredictableeffectsofbadweatherandasacommoditywhichhemustsellinorderto________oldagriculturalimplementsandobtainchemicalfertilizersto______thesoil.Hemayalsoneedmoneytoconstructirrigation______andimprovehisfarminotherways.Ifnosurplusisavailableafarmercannotbe______.Hemusteithersellsomeofhispropertyor________extrafundsintheformofloans.Naturallyhewilltrytoborrowmoneyatalow________ofinterestbutloansofthiskindarenot________obtainable.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
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