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2012年5月4日，__在纪念中国共产主义青年团成立90周年大会上发表重要讲话，希望广大青年坚持艰苦奋斗，牢记“忧劳兴国、逸豫亡身”的道理。坚持艰苦奋斗要正确理解艰苦奋斗，艰苦奋斗
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Theroleofgovernmentsinenvironmentalmanagementisdeficitbutinescapable.Sometimesthestatetriestomanagetheresourcesitownsanddoessobadly.Often1governmentsactinanevenmoreharmfulway.Theyactuallysubsidizetheexploitationand2ofnaturalresources.Awhole3ofpoliciesfromfarm-pricesupporttoprotectionforcoal-miningdoenvironmentaldamageandoften4noeconomicsense.Makinggoodpoliciesoffersatwo-fold5:acleanerenvironmentpoliliciansandamoreefficienteconomy.Crowthandenvironmentalismcanactuallygohandinhandifpoliticianshavethecourageto6thevestedinterestthatsubsidiescreate. Noactivityaffectsmoreoftheearth’ssurfacethanfarminghshapesathirdoftheplanet’slandareanot7Antarcticaandtheproportionisrising.Worldfoodoutputperheadhasrisenby4percentbetweenthe1970sand1980smainlyasaresultofincreasesin8fromlandalreadyin9butalsobecausemorelandhasbeenbroughtundertheplough.Higheryieldshavebeenachievedbyincreasedirrigationbettercropbreedinganda10intheuseofpesticidesandchemicalfertilizersinthe1970sand1980s. Alltheseactivitiesmayhave11environmentalimpacts.Forexamplelandclearingforagrieuhureisthelargestsingle12ofdeforestation;chemicalfertilizersandpesticidesmay13watersupplies;moreintensivefarmingandtheabandonmentoffallowperiods14worsensoilerosion;andthespreadofmonochordanduseofhigh-yieldingvarietiesofeuroshavebeenaccompaniedbythe15ofoldvarietiesoffoodplantswhichmighthaveprovidedsome16againstpestsordiseasesinfuture.Soilerosionthreatenstheproductivityoflandinbothrichandpoorcountries.TheUnitedStates17themostcarefulmeasurementshavebeendonediscoveredin1982thataboutone-fifthofitsfarmlandwaslosingtopsoilatarate18todiminishthesoil’sproductivity.Thecountrysubsequently19aprogramtoconvert11percentofitscroppedlandtomeadoworforest.TopsoilinIndiaandChinais20muchfasterthaninAmerica. 10
ThefirsttechnologicalrevolutioninmodernbiologystartedwhenJamesWatsonandFrancisCrickdescribedthestructureofDNAhalfacenturyago.Thatestablishedthefieldsofmolecularandcellbiologythebasisofthebiotechnologyindustry.Thesequencingofthehumangenomenearlyadecadeagosetoffasecondrevolutionwhichhasstartedtoilluminatetheoriginsofdiseases.Nowtheindustryisconvincedthatathirdrevolutionisunderway:theconvergenceofbiologyandengineering.ArecentreportfromtheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologysaysthatphysicalscienceshavealreadybeentransformedbytheiradoptionofinformationtechnologyadvancedmaterialsimagingnanotechnolugyandsophisticatedmodellingandsimulation.PhillipSharpaNobelprize-winneratthatuniversitybelievesthatthosetoolsareabouttobebroughttobearonbiologytoo.Butthechancesarethatthiswilltaketimeandturnouttobemoreofareformationthanarevolution.Theconventionalhealth-caresystemsoftherichworldmayresistnewtechnologiesevenaspoorcountriesleapfrogahead.Thereisalreadyabacklashagainstgenomicswhichhasbeenoversoldtoconsumersasadeterministicscience.Andgivensoaringhealth-carecostsinsurersandhealthsystemsmaynotwanttoadoptnewtechnologiesunlessinventorscanshowconclusivelythattheywillproducebetteroutcomesandoffervalueformoney.Iftheseobstaclescanbeovercomethenthebiggestwinnerwillbethepatient.Inthepastmedicinehastakenapaternalisticstancewiththeall-knowingphysiciandispensingwisdomfromonhighbutthatisbecomingincreasinglyuntenable.Digitisationpromisestoconnectdoctorsnotonlytoeverythingtheyneedtoknowabouttheirpatientsbutalsotootherdoctorswhohavetreatedsimilardisorders.Thatessentialreformwillenablemanyotherbigtechnologicalchangestobeintroduced.Justasimportantitcanmakethatinformationavailabletothepatientstooempoweringthemtoplayabiggerpartinmanagingtheirownhealthaffairs.Thisiscontroversialandwithgoodreason.Manydoctorsandsomepatientsreckontheylacktheknowledgetomakeinformeddecisions.Butpatientsactuallyknowagreatdealaboutmanydiseasesespeciallychroniconeslikediabetesandheartproblemswithwhichtheyoftenliveformanyyears.Thebestwaytodealwiththoseisforindividualstotakemoreresponsibilityfortheirownhealthandpreventproblemsbeforetheyrequirecostlyhospitalvisits.Thatmeansputtingelectronichealthrecordsdirectlyintopatients’hands.Whichofthefollowingmightbetrueaboutmodernbiologyaccordingtothefirstparagraph
Theroleofgovernmentsinenvironmentalmanagementisdeficitbutinescapable.Sometimesthestatetriestomanagetheresourcesitownsanddoessobadly.Often1governmentsactinanevenmoreharmfulway.Theyactuallysubsidizetheexploitationand2ofnaturalresources.Awhole3ofpoliciesfromfarm-pricesupporttoprotectionforcoal-miningdoenvironmentaldamageandoften4noeconomicsense.Makinggoodpoliciesoffersatwo-fold5:acleanerenvironmentpoliliciansandamoreefficienteconomy.Crowthandenvironmentalismcanactuallygohandinhandifpoliticianshavethecourageto6thevestedinterestthatsubsidiescreate. Noactivityaffectsmoreoftheearth’ssurfacethanfarminghshapesathirdoftheplanet’slandareanot7Antarcticaandtheproportionisrising.Worldfoodoutputperheadhasrisenby4percentbetweenthe1970sand1980smainlyasaresultofincreasesin8fromlandalreadyin9butalsobecausemorelandhasbeenbroughtundertheplough.Higheryieldshavebeenachievedbyincreasedirrigationbettercropbreedinganda10intheuseofpesticidesandchemicalfertilizersinthe1970sand1980s. Alltheseactivitiesmayhave11environmentalimpacts.Forexamplelandclearingforagrieuhureisthelargestsingle12ofdeforestation;chemicalfertilizersandpesticidesmay13watersupplies;moreintensivefarmingandtheabandonmentoffallowperiods14worsensoilerosion;andthespreadofmonochordanduseofhigh-yieldingvarietiesofeuroshavebeenaccompaniedbythe15ofoldvarietiesoffoodplantswhichmighthaveprovidedsome16againstpestsordiseasesinfuture.Soilerosionthreatenstheproductivityoflandinbothrichandpoorcountries.TheUnitedStates17themostcarefulmeasurementshavebeendonediscoveredin1982thataboutone-fifthofitsfarmlandwaslosingtopsoilatarate18todiminishthesoil’sproductivity.Thecountrysubsequently19aprogramtoconvert11percentofitscroppedlandtomeadoworforest.TopsoilinIndiaandChinais20muchfasterthaninAmerica. 6
Theuseofheatpumpshas’beenheldbacklargelybyskepticismaboutadvertisers’claimsthatheatpumpscanprovideasmanyasunitsofthermalenergyforeachunitofelectricalenergyusedthusapparentlycontradictingtheprincipleofenergyconservation.Heatpumpscirculateafluidrefrigerantthatcyclesalternativelyfromitsliquidphasetoitsvaporphaseinaclosedloop.Therefrigerantstartingasalow-temperaturelow-pressurevaporenterscompressordrivenbyanelectricmotor.Therefrigerantleavesthecompressorasahotdensevaporandflowsthroughaheatexchangercalledthecondenserwhichtransfersheatfromtherefrigeranttoabodyorair.Nowtherefrigerantasahigh-pressurecooledliquidconfrontsaflowrestrictionwhichcausesthepressuretodrop.Asthepressurefallstherefrigerantexpandsandpartiallyvaporizesbecomingchilled.Itthenpassesthroughasecondheatexchangertheevaporatorwhichtransfersheatfromtheairtotherefrigerantreducingthetemperatureofthissecondbodyofair.Ofthetwoheatexchangersoneislocatedinsideandtheotheroneoutsidethehousesoeachisincontactwithadifferentbodyofair:roomairandoutsideairrespectively. Theflowdirectionofrefrigerantthroughaheatpumpiscontrolledbyvalves.Whentherefrigerantflowisreversedtheheatexchangersswitchfunction.Thisflow-reversalcapabilityallowsheatpumps--eithertoheatorcoolroomair. NowifundercertainconditionsaheatpumpputsoutmorethermalenergythanitconsumesinelectricalenergyhasthelawofenergyconservationbeenchallengedNonotevenremotely:theadditionalinputofthermalenergyintothecirculatingrefrigerantviatheevaporatoraccountsforthedifferenceintheenergyequation. Unfortunatelythereisonerealproblem.Theheatingcapacityofaheatpumpdecreasesastheoutdoortemperaturefalls.Thedropincapacityiscausedbythelesseningamountofrefrigerantmassmovedthroughthecompressoratonetime.Theheatingcapacityisproportionaltothismassflowrate:thelessthemassofrefrigerantbeingcompressedthelessthethermalloaditcantransferthroughtheheat-pumpcycle.Thevolumeflowrateofrefrigerantvaporthroughthesingle-speedrotarycompressorusedinheatpumpsisapproximatelyconstant.Butcoldrefrigerantvaporenteringacompressorisatlowerpressurethanwarmervapor.Thereforethemassofcoldrefrigerant--andthusthethermalenergyitcarries--islessthaniftherefrigerantvaporwerewarmerbeforecompression. Herethenliesagenuinedrawbackofheatpumps:inextremelycoldclimates--wherethemostheatisneeded--heatpumpsareleastabletosupplyen6ughheat. Iftheauthor’sassessmentoftheuseofheatpumpsiscorrectwhichofthefollowingbestexpressesthelessonthatadvertisersshouldlearnfromthiscase
AmericaactedquicklyanddecisivelytotheGreatRecessionwhileEuropeansseemparalyzedbythedistantpast.TheswiftanddecisiveU.S.responsetothefinancialcrisisanddeeprecessionshouldbeamodelforotherlargedevelopedeconomies.YetEuropewhichisnowfacingsovereigndebtandbankingproblemsandaslowdowningrowthseemsreluctanttofollowAmerica’slead.TheUnitedStatesemergedfromits2008economiccataclysmwithrelativespeedbecausepolicymakerslearnedfromhistory.FederalReserveChairmanBenBernankehadfamouslyinternalizedthechargethatthecentralbankhadcontributedtotheGreatDepression.ThefrenziedresponseoftheBernankeFed—guaranteeingallsortsofassetsandmarketspurchasingmortgage-backedsecuritiesadoptingazero-interestratepolicyandexpandingitsbalanceshedto$2.3trillioncanbeseenassignsofovercompensation.AndfromJapan’sexperienceinthe1990stheFedlearnedtheneedforspeed.WhilesomecriticshavechargedtheU.S.fiscalstimuluswastoosmallthedatasuggestthatthestimuluspackagehasbeenasignificantcontributortojobretentionandgrowth.Increasedfederalspendingwasneededinparttocombatthedeclinesingovernmentspendingbystates.IntheUnitedStatesthefederalgovernmenthelpedpropupthestateswithinjectionsofcash.InEuropewhichlacksapowerfuloverarchingfederalgovernmentwiththeabilitytotaxandspendfiscalpolicyisallbittermedicineandnospoonfulsofsugar.FromtheUnitedKingdomtotheCzechRepublicandallpointsinbetweengovernmentsarecuttingspendingandraisingtaxes.Butthesecontractionarypolicieswillretardeconomicgrowthwhichwillinturnleadtomoreproblemsforthebanks.TheEuropeanCentralBankandEuropeangovernmentsareembracingfiscalausterityandcomparativemonetarytightnessintheseextraordinarytimesbecausetheyremainparalyzedbyaterriblefearofinflation.TheFederalReservehasthedualmandateofcontrollinginflationandpromotingemployment.TheECBbycontrastisconcernedprimarilywithinflation.NevermindthattheOECDdataoninflationshowsitisundercontrol.TheEuropeansremainfreakedoutbytheprospectofinflationatsomepointinthefuture.InitsoutlooktheOECDwrites.Oninflationtheissueisnotwhetheritisarisktoday—itisnotbutwhetheritwillbeariskintwoyears’time.IntheUnitedStatesthedesiretoavoidmistakesmadeinthedistantandrecentpasthasledtoperhapsexcessivelyvigorousfiscalandmonetarypolicies.ForEuropeansthedesiretoavoidmistakesmadeinthedistantpasthasledtoanexcessofcaution.WhentheylooktohistoryforguidanceEuropeanpolicymakersaren’tlookingatWashingtonin2009orJapaninthe1990sortheUnitedStatesinthe1930s.RathertheylooktoEuropeinthe1920saperiodwhenhyperinflationravagedeconomiesdisruptedthesocialorderdestroyedsocialdemocraciesandledtotheriseofNazism.Europe’sconcernoverinflation
Theroleofgovernmentsinenvironmentalmanagementisdeficitbutinescapable.Sometimesthestatetriestomanagetheresourcesitownsanddoessobadly.Often1governmentsactinanevenmoreharmfulway.Theyactuallysubsidizetheexploitationand2ofnaturalresources.Awhole3ofpoliciesfromfarm-pricesupporttoprotectionforcoal-miningdoenvironmentaldamageandoften4noeconomicsense.Makinggoodpoliciesoffersatwo-fold5:acleanerenvironmentpoliliciansandamoreefficienteconomy.Crowthandenvironmentalismcanactuallygohandinhandifpoliticianshavethecourageto6thevestedinterestthatsubsidiescreate. Noactivityaffectsmoreoftheearth’ssurfacethanfarminghshapesathirdoftheplanet’slandareanot7Antarcticaandtheproportionisrising.Worldfoodoutputperheadhasrisenby4percentbetweenthe1970sand1980smainlyasaresultofincreasesin8fromlandalreadyin9butalsobecausemorelandhasbeenbroughtundertheplough.Higheryieldshavebeenachievedbyincreasedirrigationbettercropbreedinganda10intheuseofpesticidesandchemicalfertilizersinthe1970sand1980s. Alltheseactivitiesmayhave11environmentalimpacts.Forexamplelandclearingforagrieuhureisthelargestsingle12ofdeforestation;chemicalfertilizersandpesticidesmay13watersupplies;moreintensivefarmingandtheabandonmentoffallowperiods14worsensoilerosion;andthespreadofmonochordanduseofhigh-yieldingvarietiesofeuroshavebeenaccompaniedbythe15ofoldvarietiesoffoodplantswhichmighthaveprovidedsome16againstpestsordiseasesinfuture.Soilerosionthreatenstheproductivityoflandinbothrichandpoorcountries.TheUnitedStates17themostcarefulmeasurementshavebeendonediscoveredin1982thataboutone-fifthofitsfarmlandwaslosingtopsoilatarate18todiminishthesoil’sproductivity.Thecountrysubsequently19aprogramtoconvert11percentofitscroppedlandtomeadoworforest.TopsoilinIndiaandChinais20muchfasterthaninAmerica. 12
NewgraduatesinAmericaareusedtofacinganuncertainfuturewhilesaddledwithheavydebts.NowSallieMaethefirmthatprovidesmanyofthemwiththefinancialwherewithaltocompletetheireducationwillunderstandhowtheyfeel.OnMondayApril16thitwasannouncedthattwoprivate-equityfirmsalongwithtwobanksJPMorganChaseandBankofAmericahadagreedtopay$25billionforAmerica’sleadingstudent-loanprovider. Inthepastdecadethemarketforstudentloanshasdoubledtoaround$85billionayear.Studentnumbershaveswelledwhileincomeshavefailedtokeeppacewiththesoaringcostofcollegeeducation.SallieMaehasoveraquarteroftheentirebusinessinAmerica.Andthoughmarginsarewafer-thinthefirmmadeaprofitof$1.2billionlastyear. ThisprofitabilityhasattractedtheinterestofbothDemocraticandRepublicanlawmakersseekingwaystosavemoneywhilemakingeducationmoreaffordable.ParticularlyvulnerableistheproportiondoledouttobigandprofitableprivatecompanieslikeSallieMaetosubsidiseaffordablegovernment-backedloans.Thesenowaccountforaround85%ofitslending. SallieMae’sprofitsandhealthycash-flowareadrawforprivateequity.Andtheinvolvementofthetwobankscouldproveusefulforplugginganygapinfinancingifthefirm’screditratingslipsfollowingtheassumptionofsomuchdebt.IthelpsthatSallieMaeisalsomakingmoneybeyonditscorebusiness.Themarketforprivateloanswithoutgovernmentsubsidiesorguaranteesisgrowingfastasthecostofeducationgrowswhilethesizeoffederalloansthatstudentscantakeouthasremainedflat.Thissortofloanisnicelyprofitablebecauselenderscanlevyhighinterestrates.Newgraduatesarealsotargets:SallieMaehasbuiltabigdebt-collectionarmforreluctantrepayersandacollege-fundbusinessforfastbreeders. EventherenewedinterestfrompoliticianscouldplayintoSallieMae’shands.Thelureofprofitsoverthepastdecadehasdrawnmorelendersintothebusiness.AnyfutureregulationsorlegislationthatmightshaveprofitmarginsfurthercoulddeternewentrantsorforcesmallerlendersoutofthebusinessandSallieMaemaygetmoreopportunitiestooffsetthereduction.Butdespiteallthesafeguardsstudentsarehighriskborrowerswhoquicklyamassbigdebts.SallieMaelikemanyofthestudentsitservescouldwakeuponedaywithanastyhangover拖欠andlittlerecollectionabouthowitcameabout. AccordingtothetextthegoaloftheUSgovernmentoneducationcostis
Theuseofheatpumpshas’beenheldbacklargelybyskepticismaboutadvertisers’claimsthatheatpumpscanprovideasmanyasunitsofthermalenergyforeachunitofelectricalenergyusedthusapparentlycontradictingtheprincipleofenergyconservation.Heatpumpscirculateafluidrefrigerantthatcyclesalternativelyfromitsliquidphasetoitsvaporphaseinaclosedloop.Therefrigerantstartingasalow-temperaturelow-pressurevaporenterscompressordrivenbyanelectricmotor.Therefrigerantleavesthecompressorasahotdensevaporandflowsthroughaheatexchangercalledthecondenserwhichtransfersheatfromtherefrigeranttoabodyorair.Nowtherefrigerantasahigh-pressurecooledliquidconfrontsaflowrestrictionwhichcausesthepressuretodrop.Asthepressurefallstherefrigerantexpandsandpartiallyvaporizesbecomingchilled.Itthenpassesthroughasecondheatexchangertheevaporatorwhichtransfersheatfromtheairtotherefrigerantreducingthetemperatureofthissecondbodyofair.Ofthetwoheatexchangersoneislocatedinsideandtheotheroneoutsidethehousesoeachisincontactwithadifferentbodyofair:roomairandoutsideairrespectively. Theflowdirectionofrefrigerantthroughaheatpumpiscontrolledbyvalves.Whentherefrigerantflowisreversedtheheatexchangersswitchfunction.Thisflow-reversalcapabilityallowsheatpumps--eithertoheatorcoolroomair. NowifundercertainconditionsaheatpumpputsoutmorethermalenergythanitconsumesinelectricalenergyhasthelawofenergyconservationbeenchallengedNonotevenremotely:theadditionalinputofthermalenergyintothecirculatingrefrigerantviatheevaporatoraccountsforthedifferenceintheenergyequation. Unfortunatelythereisonerealproblem.Theheatingcapacityofaheatpumpdecreasesastheoutdoortemperaturefalls.Thedropincapacityiscausedbythelesseningamountofrefrigerantmassmovedthroughthecompressoratonetime.Theheatingcapacityisproportionaltothismassflowrate:thelessthemassofrefrigerantbeingcompressedthelessthethermalloaditcantransferthroughtheheat-pumpcycle.Thevolumeflowrateofrefrigerantvaporthroughthesingle-speedrotarycompressorusedinheatpumpsisapproximatelyconstant.Butcoldrefrigerantvaporenteringacompressorisatlowerpressurethanwarmervapor.Thereforethemassofcoldrefrigerant--andthusthethermalenergyitcarries--islessthaniftherefrigerantvaporwerewarmerbeforecompression. Herethenliesagenuinedrawbackofheatpumps:inextremelycoldclimates--wherethemostheatisneeded--heatpumpsareleastabletosupplyen6ughheat. Theprimarypurposeofthepassageisto
Exactlywherewewillstandinthelongwaragainstdiseasebytheyear2050isimpossibletosay.46Butifdevelopmentsinresearchmaintaintheircurrentpaceitseemslikelythatacombinationofimprovedattentiontodietaryandenvironmentalfactorsalongwithadvancesingenetherapyandproteintargeteddrugswillhavevirtuallyeliminatedmostmajorclassesofdisease.Fromaneconomicstandpointthebestnewsmayhethattheseaccomplishmentscouldbeaccompaniedbyadropinhealth-carecosts.47Costsmayevenfallasdiseasesarebroughtundercontrolusingpinpointedshorttermtherapiesnowbeingdeveloped.By2050therewillhefewerhospitalsandsurgicalprocedureswillbelargelyrestrictedtothetreatmentofaccidentsandotherformsoftrauma.Spendingonnonacutecarebothinnursingfacilitiesandinhomeswillalsofallsharplyasmoreelderlypeopleleadhealthylivesuntilclosetodeath.Oneresultofmedicine’ssuccessincontrollingdiseasewillheadramaticincreaseinlifeexpectancy.48Theextentofthatincreaseisahighlyspeculativematterbutitisworthnotingthatmedicalsciencehasalreadyhelpedtomaketheveryoldcurrentlydefinedasthoseover85yearsofagethefastestgrowingsegmentofthepopulation.Between1960.and1995theU.S.populationasawholeincreasedbyabout45%whilethesegmentover85yearsofagegrewbyalmost300%.49Therehasbeenasimilarexplosioninthepopulationofcentenarianswiththeresultthatsurvivaltotheageof100isnolongerthenewsworthyfeatthatitwasonlyafewdecadesago.U.S.CensusBureauprojectionsalreadyforecastdramaticincreaseinthenumberofcentenariansinthenext50years:4millionin2050comparedwith37000in1990.50AlthoughCensusBureaucalculationsprojectanincreaseinaveragelifespanofonlyeightyearsbytheyear2050someexpertsbelievethatthehumanlifespanshouldnotbegintoencounteranytheoreticalnaturallimitsbefore120years.Withcontinuingadvancesinmolecularmedicineandagrowingunderstandingoftheagingprocessthatlimitcouldriseto130yearsormore.
Exactlywherewewillstandinthelongwaragainstdiseasebytheyear2050isimpossibletosay.46Butifdevelopmentsinresearchmaintaintheircurrentpaceitseemslikelythatacombinationofimprovedattentiontodietaryandenvironmentalfactorsalongwithadvancesingenetherapyandproteintargeteddrugswillhavevirtuallyeliminatedmostmajorclassesofdisease.Fromaneconomicstandpointthebestnewsmayhethattheseaccomplishmentscouldbeaccompaniedbyadropinhealth-carecosts.47Costsmayevenfallasdiseasesarebroughtundercontrolusingpinpointedshorttermtherapiesnowbeingdeveloped.By2050therewillhefewerhospitalsandsurgicalprocedureswillbelargelyrestrictedtothetreatmentofaccidentsandotherformsoftrauma.Spendingonnonacutecarebothinnursingfacilitiesandinhomeswillalsofallsharplyasmoreelderlypeopleleadhealthylivesuntilclosetodeath.Oneresultofmedicine’ssuccessincontrollingdiseasewillheadramaticincreaseinlifeexpectancy.48Theextentofthatincreaseisahighlyspeculativematterbutitisworthnotingthatmedicalsciencehasalreadyhelpedtomaketheveryoldcurrentlydefinedasthoseover85yearsofagethefastestgrowingsegmentofthepopulation.Between1960.and1995theU.S.populationasawholeincreasedbyabout45%whilethesegmentover85yearsofagegrewbyalmost300%.49Therehasbeenasimilarexplosioninthepopulationofcentenarianswiththeresultthatsurvivaltotheageof100isnolongerthenewsworthyfeatthatitwasonlyafewdecadesago.U.S.CensusBureauprojectionsalreadyforecastdramaticincreaseinthenumberofcentenariansinthenext50years:4millionin2050comparedwith37000in1990.50AlthoughCensusBureaucalculationsprojectanincreaseinaveragelifespanofonlyeightyearsbytheyear2050someexpertsbelievethatthehumanlifespanshouldnotbegintoencounteranytheoreticalnaturallimitsbefore120years.Withcontinuingadvancesinmolecularmedicineandagrowingunderstandingoftheagingprocessthatlimitcouldriseto130yearsormore.
Educationisoneofthekeywordsofourtime.Amanwithoutaneducationmanyofusbelieveisanunfortunatevictimofunfortunatecircumstancesdeprivedofoneofthegreatesttwentieth-centuryopportunities.Convincedoftheimportanceofeducationmodernstatesinvestininstitutionsoflearningtogetbackinterestintheformofalargegroupofenlightenedyoungmenandwomenwhoarepotentialleaders.Educationwithitscyclesofinstructionsocarefullyworkedoutispunctuatedbytextbooks--thosepurchasablewellsofwisdom--whatwouldcivilizationbelikewithoutitsbenefitsSomuchiscertain:thatwewouldhavedoctorsandpreacherslawyersanddefendantsmarriagesandbirths;butourspiritualoutlookwouldbedifferent.Wewouldlaylessstressonfactsandfiguresandmoreonagoodmemoryonappliedpsychologyandonthecapacityofamantogetalongwithhisfellow-citizens.Ifoureducationalsystemwerefashionedafteritsbooklesspastwewouldhavethemostdemocraticformofcollegeimaginable.Amongthepeoplewhomweliketocallsavagesallknowledgeinheritedbytraditionissharedbyall;itistaughttoeverymemberofthetribesothatinthisrespecteverybodyisequallyequippedforlife.Itistheidealconditionoftheequalstartwhichonlyourmostprogressiveformsofmoderneducationtrytoreachagain.Inprimitiveculturestheobligationtoseekandtoreceivethetraditionalinstructionisbindingonall.Therearenoilliterates--ifthetermcanbeappliedtopeopleswithoutascript--whileourowncompulsoryschoolattendancebecamelawinGermanyin1642inFrancein1806andinEngland1976andisstillnon-existentinanumberofcivilizednations.Thisshowshowlongitwasbeforeweconsidereditnecessarytomakesurethatallourchildrencouldshareintheknowledgeaccumulatedbythehappyfewduringthepastcenturies.Educationinthewildernessisnotamatterofmonetarymeans.Allareentitledtoanequalstart.Thereisnoneofthehurrythatinoursocietyoftenhampersthefulldevelopmentofagrowingpersonality.Thereachildgrowsupundertheever-presentattentionofhisparents;thereforethejunglesandthesavagesknowofnojuveniledelinquency.Nonecessityofmakingalivingawayfromhomeresultsinneglectofchildrenandnofatherisconfrontedwithhisinabilitytobuyaneducationforhischild.Notes:juveniledelinquency青少年犯罪Accordingtothetextwhichofthefollowingstatementsistrue
ThefirsttechnologicalrevolutioninmodernbiologystartedwhenJamesWatsonandFrancisCrickdescribedthestructureofDNAhalfacenturyago.Thatestablishedthefieldsofmolecularandcellbiologythebasisofthebiotechnologyindustry.Thesequencingofthehumangenomenearlyadecadeagosetoffasecondrevolutionwhichhasstartedtoilluminatetheoriginsofdiseases.Nowtheindustryisconvincedthatathirdrevolutionisunderway:theconvergenceofbiologyandengineering.ArecentreportfromtheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologysaysthatphysicalscienceshavealreadybeentransformedbytheiradoptionofinformationtechnologyadvancedmaterialsimagingnanotechnolugyandsophisticatedmodellingandsimulation.PhillipSharpaNobelprize-winneratthatuniversitybelievesthatthosetoolsareabouttobebroughttobearonbiologytoo.Butthechancesarethatthiswilltaketimeandturnouttobemoreofareformationthanarevolution.Theconventionalhealth-caresystemsoftherichworldmayresistnewtechnologiesevenaspoorcountriesleapfrogahead.Thereisalreadyabacklashagainstgenomicswhichhasbeenoversoldtoconsumersasadeterministicscience.Andgivensoaringhealth-carecostsinsurersandhealthsystemsmaynotwanttoadoptnewtechnologiesunlessinventorscanshowconclusivelythattheywillproducebetteroutcomesandoffervalueformoney.Iftheseobstaclescanbeovercomethenthebiggestwinnerwillbethepatient.Inthepastmedicinehastakenapaternalisticstancewiththeall-knowingphysiciandispensingwisdomfromonhighbutthatisbecomingincreasinglyuntenable.Digitisationpromisestoconnectdoctorsnotonlytoeverythingtheyneedtoknowabouttheirpatientsbutalsotootherdoctorswhohavetreatedsimilardisorders.Thatessentialreformwillenablemanyotherbigtechnologicalchangestobeintroduced.Justasimportantitcanmakethatinformationavailabletothepatientstooempoweringthemtoplayabiggerpartinmanagingtheirownhealthaffairs.Thisiscontroversialandwithgoodreason.Manydoctorsandsomepatientsreckontheylacktheknowledgetomakeinformeddecisions.Butpatientsactuallyknowagreatdealaboutmanydiseasesespeciallychroniconeslikediabetesandheartproblemswithwhichtheyoftenliveformanyyears.Thebestwaytodealwiththoseisforindividualstotakemoreresponsibilityfortheirownhealthandpreventproblemsbeforetheyrequirecostlyhospitalvisits.Thatmeansputtingelectronichealthrecordsdirectlyintopatients’hands.Whatwillpatientsprobablydowiththeirchronicdiseasesinthefuture
Exactlywherewewillstandinthelongwaragainstdiseasebytheyear2050isimpossibletosay.46Butifdevelopmentsinresearchmaintaintheircurrentpaceitseemslikelythatacombinationofimprovedattentiontodietaryandenvironmentalfactorsalongwithadvancesingenetherapyandproteintargeteddrugswillhavevirtuallyeliminatedmostmajorclassesofdisease.Fromaneconomicstandpointthebestnewsmayhethattheseaccomplishmentscouldbeaccompaniedbyadropinhealth-carecosts.47Costsmayevenfallasdiseasesarebroughtundercontrolusingpinpointedshorttermtherapiesnowbeingdeveloped.By2050therewillhefewerhospitalsandsurgicalprocedureswillbelargelyrestrictedtothetreatmentofaccidentsandotherformsoftrauma.Spendingonnonacutecarebothinnursingfacilitiesandinhomeswillalsofallsharplyasmoreelderlypeopleleadhealthylivesuntilclosetodeath.Oneresultofmedicine’ssuccessincontrollingdiseasewillheadramaticincreaseinlifeexpectancy.48Theextentofthatincreaseisahighlyspeculativematterbutitisworthnotingthatmedicalsciencehasalreadyhelpedtomaketheveryoldcurrentlydefinedasthoseover85yearsofagethefastestgrowingsegmentofthepopulation.Between1960.and1995theU.S.populationasawholeincreasedbyabout45%whilethesegmentover85yearsofagegrewbyalmost300%.49Therehasbeenasimilarexplosioninthepopulationofcentenarianswiththeresultthatsurvivaltotheageof100isnolongerthenewsworthyfeatthatitwasonlyafewdecadesago.U.S.CensusBureauprojectionsalreadyforecastdramaticincreaseinthenumberofcentenariansinthenext50years:4millionin2050comparedwith37000in1990.50AlthoughCensusBureaucalculationsprojectanincreaseinaveragelifespanofonlyeightyearsbytheyear2050someexpertsbelievethatthehumanlifespanshouldnotbegintoencounteranytheoreticalnaturallimitsbefore120years.Withcontinuingadvancesinmolecularmedicineandagrowingunderstandingoftheagingprocessthatlimitcouldriseto130yearsormore.
Theroleofgovernmentsinenvironmentalmanagementisdeficitbutinescapable.Sometimesthestatetriestomanagetheresourcesitownsanddoessobadly.Often1governmentsactinanevenmoreharmfulway.Theyactuallysubsidizetheexploitationand2ofnaturalresources.Awhole3ofpoliciesfromfarm-pricesupporttoprotectionforcoal-miningdoenvironmentaldamageandoften4noeconomicsense.Makinggoodpoliciesoffersatwo-fold5:acleanerenvironmentpoliliciansandamoreefficienteconomy.Crowthandenvironmentalismcanactuallygohandinhandifpoliticianshavethecourageto6thevestedinterestthatsubsidiescreate. Noactivityaffectsmoreoftheearth’ssurfacethanfarminghshapesathirdoftheplanet’slandareanot7Antarcticaandtheproportionisrising.Worldfoodoutputperheadhasrisenby4percentbetweenthe1970sand1980smainlyasaresultofincreasesin8fromlandalreadyin9butalsobecausemorelandhasbeenbroughtundertheplough.Higheryieldshavebeenachievedbyincreasedirrigationbettercropbreedinganda10intheuseofpesticidesandchemicalfertilizersinthe1970sand1980s. Alltheseactivitiesmayhave11environmentalimpacts.Forexamplelandclearingforagrieuhureisthelargestsingle12ofdeforestation;chemicalfertilizersandpesticidesmay13watersupplies;moreintensivefarmingandtheabandonmentoffallowperiods14worsensoilerosion;andthespreadofmonochordanduseofhigh-yieldingvarietiesofeuroshavebeenaccompaniedbythe15ofoldvarietiesoffoodplantswhichmighthaveprovidedsome16againstpestsordiseasesinfuture.Soilerosionthreatenstheproductivityoflandinbothrichandpoorcountries.TheUnitedStates17themostcarefulmeasurementshavebeendonediscoveredin1982thataboutone-fifthofitsfarmlandwaslosingtopsoilatarate18todiminishthesoil’sproductivity.Thecountrysubsequently19aprogramtoconvert11percentofitscroppedlandtomeadoworforest.TopsoilinIndiaandChinais20muchfasterthaninAmerica. 18
NewgraduatesinAmericaareusedtofacinganuncertainfuturewhilesaddledwithheavydebts.NowSallieMaethefirmthatprovidesmanyofthemwiththefinancialwherewithaltocompletetheireducationwillunderstandhowtheyfeel.OnMondayApril16thitwasannouncedthattwoprivate-equityfirmsalongwithtwobanksJPMorganChaseandBankofAmericahadagreedtopay$25billionforAmerica’sleadingstudent-loanprovider. Inthepastdecadethemarketforstudentloanshasdoubledtoaround$85billionayear.Studentnumbershaveswelledwhileincomeshavefailedtokeeppacewiththesoaringcostofcollegeeducation.SallieMaehasoveraquarteroftheentirebusinessinAmerica.Andthoughmarginsarewafer-thinthefirmmadeaprofitof$1.2billionlastyear. ThisprofitabilityhasattractedtheinterestofbothDemocraticandRepublicanlawmakersseekingwaystosavemoneywhilemakingeducationmoreaffordable.ParticularlyvulnerableistheproportiondoledouttobigandprofitableprivatecompanieslikeSallieMaetosubsidiseaffordablegovernment-backedloans.Thesenowaccountforaround85%ofitslending. SallieMae’sprofitsandhealthycash-flowareadrawforprivateequity.Andtheinvolvementofthetwobankscouldproveusefulforplugginganygapinfinancingifthefirm’screditratingslipsfollowingtheassumptionofsomuchdebt.IthelpsthatSallieMaeisalsomakingmoneybeyonditscorebusiness.Themarketforprivateloanswithoutgovernmentsubsidiesorguaranteesisgrowingfastasthecostofeducationgrowswhilethesizeoffederalloansthatstudentscantakeouthasremainedflat.Thissortofloanisnicelyprofitablebecauselenderscanlevyhighinterestrates.Newgraduatesarealsotargets:SallieMaehasbuiltabigdebt-collectionarmforreluctantrepayersandacollege-fundbusinessforfastbreeders. EventherenewedinterestfrompoliticianscouldplayintoSallieMae’shands.Thelureofprofitsoverthepastdecadehasdrawnmorelendersintothebusiness.AnyfutureregulationsorlegislationthatmightshaveprofitmarginsfurthercoulddeternewentrantsorforcesmallerlendersoutofthebusinessandSallieMaemaygetmoreopportunitiestooffsetthereduction.Butdespiteallthesafeguardsstudentsarehighriskborrowerswhoquicklyamassbigdebts.SallieMaelikemanyofthestudentsitservescouldwakeuponedaywithanastyhangover拖欠andlittlerecollectionabouthowitcameabout. TheexampleofSallieMaeCompanyisusedbytheauthorto
NewgraduatesinAmericaareusedtofacinganuncertainfuturewhilesaddledwithheavydebts.NowSallieMaethefirmthatprovidesmanyofthemwiththefinancialwherewithaltocompletetheireducationwillunderstandhowtheyfeel.OnMondayApril16thitwasannouncedthattwoprivate-equityfirmsalongwithtwobanksJPMorganChaseandBankofAmericahadagreedtopay$25billionforAmerica’sleadingstudent-loanprovider. Inthepastdecadethemarketforstudentloanshasdoubledtoaround$85billionayear.Studentnumbershaveswelledwhileincomeshavefailedtokeeppacewiththesoaringcostofcollegeeducation.SallieMaehasoveraquarteroftheentirebusinessinAmerica.Andthoughmarginsarewafer-thinthefirmmadeaprofitof$1.2billionlastyear. ThisprofitabilityhasattractedtheinterestofbothDemocraticandRepublicanlawmakersseekingwaystosavemoneywhilemakingeducationmoreaffordable.ParticularlyvulnerableistheproportiondoledouttobigandprofitableprivatecompanieslikeSallieMaetosubsidiseaffordablegovernment-backedloans.Thesenowaccountforaround85%ofitslending. SallieMae’sprofitsandhealthycash-flowareadrawforprivateequity.Andtheinvolvementofthetwobankscouldproveusefulforplugginganygapinfinancingifthefirm’screditratingslipsfollowingtheassumptionofsomuchdebt.IthelpsthatSallieMaeisalsomakingmoneybeyonditscorebusiness.Themarketforprivateloanswithoutgovernmentsubsidiesorguaranteesisgrowingfastasthecostofeducationgrowswhilethesizeoffederalloansthatstudentscantakeouthasremainedflat.Thissortofloanisnicelyprofitablebecauselenderscanlevyhighinterestrates.Newgraduatesarealsotargets:SallieMaehasbuiltabigdebt-collectionarmforreluctantrepayersandacollege-fundbusinessforfastbreeders. EventherenewedinterestfrompoliticianscouldplayintoSallieMae’shands.Thelureofprofitsoverthepastdecadehasdrawnmorelendersintothebusiness.AnyfutureregulationsorlegislationthatmightshaveprofitmarginsfurthercoulddeternewentrantsorforcesmallerlendersoutofthebusinessandSallieMaemaygetmoreopportunitiestooffsetthereduction.Butdespiteallthesafeguardsstudentsarehighriskborrowerswhoquicklyamassbigdebts.SallieMaelikemanyofthestudentsitservescouldwakeuponedaywithanastyhangover拖欠andlittlerecollectionabouthowitcameabout. Fromthelasttwoparagraphswelearnthat
[A]In1849goldwasdiscoveredinCaliforniainthemountainsnearSanFrancisco.SostartedthefamousGoldRushofthe49ersacrossthevastunexploredwildernessthatlaywestoftheMississippi.Wholefamiliesperished.Onesmallgroupof49erslookingforashortcutacrosstheSierraNevadaMountainshappenedtoentertheinfamousDeathValley.ItwasluckyforthemitwaswinterforinsummerDeathValleyisaboutthehottestandmostdesolateplaceonearth.Asitwasoneofthegroupdiedofthirstanditwasthe49erswhogavethevalleyitsgrimname. [B]ThecompletionoftherailroadnotonlyjoinedthecitiesoftheeastwithCaliforniaitalsobroughtprosperitytotheisolatedfarmersoftheplainsandtotherancherswhowerenowabletosendtheircattletotheslaughterhousesinfreightears.Infactthenewrailroadbecameanessentiallife-lineforanationwhichnowstretched3000milesfromtheAtlantictothePacificOceans. [C]Aslateasthe1880samanintheFarwestcouldbehangedforstealingahorseyetgetnomorethanfiveyearsinjailforrobbingabank.Eversincethepioneerswentwestintotheunknowntheydependedabsolutelyontheirhorsesandtheirguns.IfamanlosthishorseorhisguninthedesertsmountainsorforestsofNevadaArizonaandeasternCaliforniahestoodnochance.HungerthirstagrizzlybearamountainlionorhostileIndianswouldfinishhimoffsoonerorlater.Afrontiersmanhadtobetoughbraveandresourcefulinthosedays. [D]ThecolonizationoftheWestwasgivenatremendousimpetusbythebuildingoftheTranscontinentalrailroadoneofthegreatengineeringfeatsofalltime.CongressdecidedthatthelayingofthetracksshouldbeginfromtheEastandtheWestatthesametime.Sothebuildingofthisrailroadlinedwithpolesforthefirsteast-westtelegraphsystemdevelopedintoarace.TheEasternersmovingacrosstheplainsprogressedfasterfortheydidnothavetotunnelthroughgiantmountainsorbridgegapingcanyons.ThetworailroadslinkedupinUtahonJuly10th1867.Therewasgreatexcitementandaspecialceremonytomarktheoccasion. [E]DesertsmountainsandforestsarestillthefrontierbetweenteemingCaliforniancitiesandthesparselypopulatedwildernessofNevadaandeasternCalifornia.EventodayNevadahashardlymorethan500thousandinhabitantsmostofwhomliveinthecitiesofLasVegasandReno. [F]Laterin1865aftertheCivilWardisillusionedsoldiersunabletofrndworkfollowedinthefootstepsofthe49ers.Theydidnotfindmuchgoldbuttheyfoundrichpasturesforcattle.ItwastheywhofoundedtheUSA’sgreatfoodindustryandtheyworkedwiththevigorandcourageoftheearlypioneersandwithafaithfortifiedbytheBible. [G]SomeAmericansfeelthatthefrontierspiritnolongerexistsintheUSA.Butitexpresseditselfinanumberofways.AmericansdonotlikebeingwithoutworkandtheywilltravelhundredsofmilesinsearchofajobshowingacourageandanenterprisewhichisunusualinmostoftheolderEuropeancountries.Thenthereistheexplorationofouterspace.PresidentJohnKennedyinaspeechtothenationspokeofthis"NewFrontier."Thefrontierspiritcertainlyplayedapartinputtingthefirstmenonthenoonthemostrecentofallfrontierstobecrossed. 42
[A]In1849goldwasdiscoveredinCaliforniainthemountainsnearSanFrancisco.SostartedthefamousGoldRushofthe49ersacrossthevastunexploredwildernessthatlaywestoftheMississippi.Wholefamiliesperished.Onesmallgroupof49erslookingforashortcutacrosstheSierraNevadaMountainshappenedtoentertheinfamousDeathValley.ItwasluckyforthemitwaswinterforinsummerDeathValleyisaboutthehottestandmostdesolateplaceonearth.Asitwasoneofthegroupdiedofthirstanditwasthe49erswhogavethevalleyitsgrimname. [B]ThecompletionoftherailroadnotonlyjoinedthecitiesoftheeastwithCaliforniaitalsobroughtprosperitytotheisolatedfarmersoftheplainsandtotherancherswhowerenowabletosendtheircattletotheslaughterhousesinfreightears.Infactthenewrailroadbecameanessentiallife-lineforanationwhichnowstretched3000milesfromtheAtlantictothePacificOceans. [C]Aslateasthe1880samanintheFarwestcouldbehangedforstealingahorseyetgetnomorethanfiveyearsinjailforrobbingabank.Eversincethepioneerswentwestintotheunknowntheydependedabsolutelyontheirhorsesandtheirguns.IfamanlosthishorseorhisguninthedesertsmountainsorforestsofNevadaArizonaandeasternCaliforniahestoodnochance.HungerthirstagrizzlybearamountainlionorhostileIndianswouldfinishhimoffsoonerorlater.Afrontiersmanhadtobetoughbraveandresourcefulinthosedays. [D]ThecolonizationoftheWestwasgivenatremendousimpetusbythebuildingoftheTranscontinentalrailroadoneofthegreatengineeringfeatsofalltime.CongressdecidedthatthelayingofthetracksshouldbeginfromtheEastandtheWestatthesametime.Sothebuildingofthisrailroadlinedwithpolesforthefirsteast-westtelegraphsystemdevelopedintoarace.TheEasternersmovingacrosstheplainsprogressedfasterfortheydidnothavetotunnelthroughgiantmountainsorbridgegapingcanyons.ThetworailroadslinkedupinUtahonJuly10th1867.Therewasgreatexcitementandaspecialceremonytomarktheoccasion. [E]DesertsmountainsandforestsarestillthefrontierbetweenteemingCaliforniancitiesandthesparselypopulatedwildernessofNevadaandeasternCalifornia.EventodayNevadahashardlymorethan500thousandinhabitantsmostofwhomliveinthecitiesofLasVegasandReno. [F]Laterin1865aftertheCivilWardisillusionedsoldiersunabletofrndworkfollowedinthefootstepsofthe49ers.Theydidnotfindmuchgoldbuttheyfoundrichpasturesforcattle.ItwastheywhofoundedtheUSA’sgreatfoodindustryandtheyworkedwiththevigorandcourageoftheearlypioneersandwithafaithfortifiedbytheBible. [G]SomeAmericansfeelthatthefrontierspiritnolongerexistsintheUSA.Butitexpresseditselfinanumberofways.AmericansdonotlikebeingwithoutworkandtheywilltravelhundredsofmilesinsearchofajobshowingacourageandanenterprisewhichisunusualinmostoftheolderEuropeancountries.Thenthereistheexplorationofouterspace.PresidentJohnKennedyinaspeechtothenationspokeofthis"NewFrontier."Thefrontierspiritcertainlyplayedapartinputtingthefirstmenonthenoonthemostrecentofallfrontierstobecrossed. 44
Directions: Studythefollowingsetofpicturescarefullyandwriteanessayinwhichyoushould 1describethepicturesbriefly 2interprettheirintendedmeaningsand 3pointouttheirimplicationsinourlife.Youshouldwriteabout160--200wordsneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.
Theroleofgovernmentsinenvironmentalmanagementisdeficitbutinescapable.Sometimesthestatetriestomanagetheresourcesitownsanddoessobadly.Often1governmentsactinanevenmoreharmfulway.Theyactuallysubsidizetheexploitationand2ofnaturalresources.Awhole3ofpoliciesfromfarm-pricesupporttoprotectionforcoal-miningdoenvironmentaldamageandoften4noeconomicsense.Makinggoodpoliciesoffersatwo-fold5:acleanerenvironmentpoliliciansandamoreefficienteconomy.Crowthandenvironmentalismcanactuallygohandinhandifpoliticianshavethecourageto6thevestedinterestthatsubsidiescreate. Noactivityaffectsmoreoftheearth’ssurfacethanfarminghshapesathirdoftheplanet’slandareanot7Antarcticaandtheproportionisrising.Worldfoodoutputperheadhasrisenby4percentbetweenthe1970sand1980smainlyasaresultofincreasesin8fromlandalreadyin9butalsobecausemorelandhasbeenbroughtundertheplough.Higheryieldshavebeenachievedbyincreasedirrigationbettercropbreedinganda10intheuseofpesticidesandchemicalfertilizersinthe1970sand1980s. Alltheseactivitiesmayhave11environmentalimpacts.Forexamplelandclearingforagrieuhureisthelargestsingle12ofdeforestation;chemicalfertilizersandpesticidesmay13watersupplies;moreintensivefarmingandtheabandonmentoffallowperiods14worsensoilerosion;andthespreadofmonochordanduseofhigh-yieldingvarietiesofeuroshavebeenaccompaniedbythe15ofoldvarietiesoffoodplantswhichmighthaveprovidedsome16againstpestsordiseasesinfuture.Soilerosionthreatenstheproductivityoflandinbothrichandpoorcountries.TheUnitedStates17themostcarefulmeasurementshavebeendonediscoveredin1982thataboutone-fifthofitsfarmlandwaslosingtopsoilatarate18todiminishthesoil’sproductivity.Thecountrysubsequently19aprogramtoconvert11percentofitscroppedlandtomeadoworforest.TopsoilinIndiaandChinais20muchfasterthaninAmerica. 4
AmericaactedquicklyanddecisivelytotheGreatRecessionwhileEuropeansseemparalyzedbythedistantpast.TheswiftanddecisiveU.S.responsetothefinancialcrisisanddeeprecessionshouldbeamodelforotherlargedevelopedeconomies.YetEuropewhichisnowfacingsovereigndebtandbankingproblemsandaslowdowningrowthseemsreluctanttofollowAmerica’slead.TheUnitedStatesemergedfromits2008economiccataclysmwithrelativespeedbecausepolicymakerslearnedfromhistory.FederalReserveChairmanBenBernankehadfamouslyinternalizedthechargethatthecentralbankhadcontributedtotheGreatDepression.ThefrenziedresponseoftheBernankeFed—guaranteeingallsortsofassetsandmarketspurchasingmortgage-backedsecuritiesadoptingazero-interestratepolicyandexpandingitsbalanceshedto$2.3trillioncanbeseenassignsofovercompensation.AndfromJapan’sexperienceinthe1990stheFedlearnedtheneedforspeed.WhilesomecriticshavechargedtheU.S.fiscalstimuluswastoosmallthedatasuggestthatthestimuluspackagehasbeenasignificantcontributortojobretentionandgrowth.Increasedfederalspendingwasneededinparttocombatthedeclinesingovernmentspendingbystates.IntheUnitedStatesthefederalgovernmenthelpedpropupthestateswithinjectionsofcash.InEuropewhichlacksapowerfuloverarchingfederalgovernmentwiththeabilitytotaxandspendfiscalpolicyisallbittermedicineandnospoonfulsofsugar.FromtheUnitedKingdomtotheCzechRepublicandallpointsinbetweengovernmentsarecuttingspendingandraisingtaxes.Butthesecontractionarypolicieswillretardeconomicgrowthwhichwillinturnleadtomoreproblemsforthebanks.TheEuropeanCentralBankandEuropeangovernmentsareembracingfiscalausterityandcomparativemonetarytightnessintheseextraordinarytimesbecausetheyremainparalyzedbyaterriblefearofinflation.TheFederalReservehasthedualmandateofcontrollinginflationandpromotingemployment.TheECBbycontrastisconcernedprimarilywithinflation.NevermindthattheOECDdataoninflationshowsitisundercontrol.TheEuropeansremainfreakedoutbytheprospectofinflationatsomepointinthefuture.InitsoutlooktheOECDwrites.Oninflationtheissueisnotwhetheritisarisktoday—itisnotbutwhetheritwillbeariskintwoyears’time.IntheUnitedStatesthedesiretoavoidmistakesmadeinthedistantandrecentpasthasledtoperhapsexcessivelyvigorousfiscalandmonetarypolicies.ForEuropeansthedesiretoavoidmistakesmadeinthedistantpasthasledtoanexcessofcaution.WhentheylooktohistoryforguidanceEuropeanpolicymakersaren’tlookingatWashingtonin2009orJapaninthe1990sortheUnitedStatesinthe1930s.RathertheylooktoEuropeinthe1920saperiodwhenhyperinflationravagedeconomiesdisruptedthesocialorderdestroyedsocialdemocraciesandledtotheriseofNazism.Fromthesecondparagraphwecaninfer
Theuseofheatpumpshas’beenheldbacklargelybyskepticismaboutadvertisers’claimsthatheatpumpscanprovideasmanyasunitsofthermalenergyforeachunitofelectricalenergyusedthusapparentlycontradictingtheprincipleofenergyconservation.Heatpumpscirculateafluidrefrigerantthatcyclesalternativelyfromitsliquidphasetoitsvaporphaseinaclosedloop.Therefrigerantstartingasalow-temperaturelow-pressurevaporenterscompressordrivenbyanelectricmotor.Therefrigerantleavesthecompressorasahotdensevaporandflowsthroughaheatexchangercalledthecondenserwhichtransfersheatfromtherefrigeranttoabodyorair.Nowtherefrigerantasahigh-pressurecooledliquidconfrontsaflowrestrictionwhichcausesthepressuretodrop.Asthepressurefallstherefrigerantexpandsandpartiallyvaporizesbecomingchilled.Itthenpassesthroughasecondheatexchangertheevaporatorwhichtransfersheatfromtheairtotherefrigerantreducingthetemperatureofthissecondbodyofair.Ofthetwoheatexchangersoneislocatedinsideandtheotheroneoutsidethehousesoeachisincontactwithadifferentbodyofair:roomairandoutsideairrespectively. Theflowdirectionofrefrigerantthroughaheatpumpiscontrolledbyvalves.Whentherefrigerantflowisreversedtheheatexchangersswitchfunction.Thisflow-reversalcapabilityallowsheatpumps--eithertoheatorcoolroomair. NowifundercertainconditionsaheatpumpputsoutmorethermalenergythanitconsumesinelectricalenergyhasthelawofenergyconservationbeenchallengedNonotevenremotely:theadditionalinputofthermalenergyintothecirculatingrefrigerantviatheevaporatoraccountsforthedifferenceintheenergyequation. Unfortunatelythereisonerealproblem.Theheatingcapacityofaheatpumpdecreasesastheoutdoortemperaturefalls.Thedropincapacityiscausedbythelesseningamountofrefrigerantmassmovedthroughthecompressoratonetime.Theheatingcapacityisproportionaltothismassflowrate:thelessthemassofrefrigerantbeingcompressedthelessthethermalloaditcantransferthroughtheheat-pumpcycle.Thevolumeflowrateofrefrigerantvaporthroughthesingle-speedrotarycompressorusedinheatpumpsisapproximatelyconstant.Butcoldrefrigerantvaporenteringacompressorisatlowerpressurethanwarmervapor.Thereforethemassofcoldrefrigerant--andthusthethermalenergyitcarries--islessthaniftherefrigerantvaporwerewarmerbeforecompression. Herethenliesagenuinedrawbackofheatpumps:inextremelycoldclimates--wherethemostheatisneeded--heatpumpsareleastabletosupplyen6ughheat. Theauthorregardsthenotionthatheatpumpshaveagenuinedrawbackasa
Theroleofgovernmentsinenvironmentalmanagementisdeficitbutinescapable.Sometimesthestatetriestomanagetheresourcesitownsanddoessobadly.Often1governmentsactinanevenmoreharmfulway.Theyactuallysubsidizetheexploitationand2ofnaturalresources.Awhole3ofpoliciesfromfarm-pricesupporttoprotectionforcoal-miningdoenvironmentaldamageandoften4noeconomicsense.Makinggoodpoliciesoffersatwo-fold5:acleanerenvironmentpoliliciansandamoreefficienteconomy.Crowthandenvironmentalismcanactuallygohandinhandifpoliticianshavethecourageto6thevestedinterestthatsubsidiescreate. Noactivityaffectsmoreoftheearth’ssurfacethanfarminghshapesathirdoftheplanet’slandareanot7Antarcticaandtheproportionisrising.Worldfoodoutputperheadhasrisenby4percentbetweenthe1970sand1980smainlyasaresultofincreasesin8fromlandalreadyin9butalsobecausemorelandhasbeenbroughtundertheplough.Higheryieldshavebeenachievedbyincreasedirrigationbettercropbreedinganda10intheuseofpesticidesandchemicalfertilizersinthe1970sand1980s. Alltheseactivitiesmayhave11environmentalimpacts.Forexamplelandclearingforagrieuhureisthelargestsingle12ofdeforestation;chemicalfertilizersandpesticidesmay13watersupplies;moreintensivefarmingandtheabandonmentoffallowperiods14worsensoilerosion;andthespreadofmonochordanduseofhigh-yieldingvarietiesofeuroshavebeenaccompaniedbythe15ofoldvarietiesoffoodplantswhichmighthaveprovidedsome16againstpestsordiseasesinfuture.Soilerosionthreatenstheproductivityoflandinbothrichandpoorcountries.TheUnitedStates17themostcarefulmeasurementshavebeendonediscoveredin1982thataboutone-fifthofitsfarmlandwaslosingtopsoilatarate18todiminishthesoil’sproductivity.Thecountrysubsequently19aprogramtoconvert11percentofitscroppedlandtomeadoworforest.TopsoilinIndiaandChinais20muchfasterthaninAmerica. 20
Theroleofgovernmentsinenvironmentalmanagementisdeficitbutinescapable.Sometimesthestatetriestomanagetheresourcesitownsanddoessobadly.Often1governmentsactinanevenmoreharmfulway.Theyactuallysubsidizetheexploitationand2ofnaturalresources.Awhole3ofpoliciesfromfarm-pricesupporttoprotectionforcoal-miningdoenvironmentaldamageandoften4noeconomicsense.Makinggoodpoliciesoffersatwo-fold5:acleanerenvironmentpoliliciansandamoreefficienteconomy.Crowthandenvironmentalismcanactuallygohandinhandifpoliticianshavethecourageto6thevestedinterestthatsubsidiescreate. Noactivityaffectsmoreoftheearth’ssurfacethanfarminghshapesathirdoftheplanet’slandareanot7Antarcticaandtheproportionisrising.Worldfoodoutputperheadhasrisenby4percentbetweenthe1970sand1980smainlyasaresultofincreasesin8fromlandalreadyin9butalsobecausemorelandhasbeenbroughtundertheplough.Higheryieldshavebeenachievedbyincreasedirrigationbettercropbreedinganda10intheuseofpesticidesandchemicalfertilizersinthe1970sand1980s. Alltheseactivitiesmayhave11environmentalimpacts.Forexamplelandclearingforagrieuhureisthelargestsingle12ofdeforestation;chemicalfertilizersandpesticidesmay13watersupplies;moreintensivefarmingandtheabandonmentoffallowperiods14worsensoilerosion;andthespreadofmonochordanduseofhigh-yieldingvarietiesofeuroshavebeenaccompaniedbythe15ofoldvarietiesoffoodplantswhichmighthaveprovidedsome16againstpestsordiseasesinfuture.Soilerosionthreatenstheproductivityoflandinbothrichandpoorcountries.TheUnitedStates17themostcarefulmeasurementshavebeendonediscoveredin1982thataboutone-fifthofitsfarmlandwaslosingtopsoilatarate18todiminishthesoil’sproductivity.Thecountrysubsequently19aprogramtoconvert11percentofitscroppedlandtomeadoworforest.TopsoilinIndiaandChinais20muchfasterthaninAmerica. 2
Educationisoneofthekeywordsofourtime.Amanwithoutaneducationmanyofusbelieveisanunfortunatevictimofunfortunatecircumstancesdeprivedofoneofthegreatesttwentieth-centuryopportunities.Convincedoftheimportanceofeducationmodernstatesinvestininstitutionsoflearningtogetbackinterestintheformofalargegroupofenlightenedyoungmenandwomenwhoarepotentialleaders.Educationwithitscyclesofinstructionsocarefullyworkedoutispunctuatedbytextbooks--thosepurchasablewellsofwisdom--whatwouldcivilizationbelikewithoutitsbenefitsSomuchiscertain:thatwewouldhavedoctorsandpreacherslawyersanddefendantsmarriagesandbirths;butourspiritualoutlookwouldbedifferent.Wewouldlaylessstressonfactsandfiguresandmoreonagoodmemoryonappliedpsychologyandonthecapacityofamantogetalongwithhisfellow-citizens.Ifoureducationalsystemwerefashionedafteritsbooklesspastwewouldhavethemostdemocraticformofcollegeimaginable.Amongthepeoplewhomweliketocallsavagesallknowledgeinheritedbytraditionissharedbyall;itistaughttoeverymemberofthetribesothatinthisrespecteverybodyisequallyequippedforlife.Itistheidealconditionoftheequalstartwhichonlyourmostprogressiveformsofmoderneducationtrytoreachagain.Inprimitiveculturestheobligationtoseekandtoreceivethetraditionalinstructionisbindingonall.Therearenoilliterates--ifthetermcanbeappliedtopeopleswithoutascript--whileourowncompulsoryschoolattendancebecamelawinGermanyin1642inFrancein1806andinEngland1976andisstillnon-existentinanumberofcivilizednations.Thisshowshowlongitwasbeforeweconsidereditnecessarytomakesurethatallourchildrencouldshareintheknowledgeaccumulatedbythehappyfewduringthepastcenturies.Educationinthewildernessisnotamatterofmonetarymeans.Allareentitledtoanequalstart.Thereisnoneofthehurrythatinoursocietyoftenhampersthefulldevelopmentofagrowingpersonality.Thereachildgrowsupundertheever-presentattentionofhisparents;thereforethejunglesandthesavagesknowofnojuveniledelinquency.Nonecessityofmakingalivingawayfromhomeresultsinneglectofchildrenandnofatherisconfrontedwithhisinabilitytobuyaneducationforhischild.Notes:juveniledelinquency青少年犯罪Accordingtothetexttheauthorseemstobe
Theroleofgovernmentsinenvironmentalmanagementisdeficitbutinescapable.Sometimesthestatetriestomanagetheresourcesitownsanddoessobadly.Often1governmentsactinanevenmoreharmfulway.Theyactuallysubsidizetheexploitationand2ofnaturalresources.Awhole3ofpoliciesfromfarm-pricesupporttoprotectionforcoal-miningdoenvironmentaldamageandoften4noeconomicsense.Makinggoodpoliciesoffersatwo-fold5:acleanerenvironmentpoliliciansandamoreefficienteconomy.Crowthandenvironmentalismcanactuallygohandinhandifpoliticianshavethecourageto6thevestedinterestthatsubsidiescreate. Noactivityaffectsmoreoftheearth’ssurfacethanfarminghshapesathirdoftheplanet’slandareanot7Antarcticaandtheproportionisrising.Worldfoodoutputperheadhasrisenby4percentbetweenthe1970sand1980smainlyasaresultofincreasesin8fromlandalreadyin9butalsobecausemorelandhasbeenbroughtundertheplough.Higheryieldshavebeenachievedbyincreasedirrigationbettercropbreedinganda10intheuseofpesticidesandchemicalfertilizersinthe1970sand1980s. Alltheseactivitiesmayhave11environmentalimpacts.Forexamplelandclearingforagrieuhureisthelargestsingle12ofdeforestation;chemicalfertilizersandpesticidesmay13watersupplies;moreintensivefarmingandtheabandonmentoffallowperiods14worsensoilerosion;andthespreadofmonochordanduseofhigh-yieldingvarietiesofeuroshavebeenaccompaniedbythe15ofoldvarietiesoffoodplantswhichmighthaveprovidedsome16againstpestsordiseasesinfuture.Soilerosionthreatenstheproductivityoflandinbothrichandpoorcountries.TheUnitedStates17themostcarefulmeasurementshavebeendonediscoveredin1982thataboutone-fifthofitsfarmlandwaslosingtopsoilatarate18todiminishthesoil’sproductivity.Thecountrysubsequently19aprogramtoconvert11percentofitscroppedlandtomeadoworforest.TopsoilinIndiaandChinais20muchfasterthaninAmerica. 14
Theroleofgovernmentsinenvironmentalmanagementisdeficitbutinescapable.Sometimesthestatetriestomanagetheresourcesitownsanddoessobadly.Often1governmentsactinanevenmoreharmfulway.Theyactuallysubsidizetheexploitationand2ofnaturalresources.Awhole3ofpoliciesfromfarm-pricesupporttoprotectionforcoal-miningdoenvironmentaldamageandoften4noeconomicsense.Makinggoodpoliciesoffersatwo-fold5:acleanerenvironmentpoliliciansandamoreefficienteconomy.Crowthandenvironmentalismcanactuallygohandinhandifpoliticianshavethecourageto6thevestedinterestthatsubsidiescreate. Noactivityaffectsmoreoftheearth’ssurfacethanfarminghshapesathirdoftheplanet’slandareanot7Antarcticaandtheproportionisrising.Worldfoodoutputperheadhasrisenby4percentbetweenthe1970sand1980smainlyasaresultofincreasesin8fromlandalreadyin9butalsobecausemorelandhasbeenbroughtundertheplough.Higheryieldshavebeenachievedbyincreasedirrigationbettercropbreedinganda10intheuseofpesticidesandchemicalfertilizersinthe1970sand1980s. Alltheseactivitiesmayhave11environmentalimpacts.Forexamplelandclearingforagrieuhureisthelargestsingle12ofdeforestation;chemicalfertilizersandpesticidesmay13watersupplies;moreintensivefarmingandtheabandonmentoffallowperiods14worsensoilerosion;andthespreadofmonochordanduseofhigh-yieldingvarietiesofeuroshavebeenaccompaniedbythe15ofoldvarietiesoffoodplantswhichmighthaveprovidedsome16againstpestsordiseasesinfuture.Soilerosionthreatenstheproductivityoflandinbothrichandpoorcountries.TheUnitedStates17themostcarefulmeasurementshavebeendonediscoveredin1982thataboutone-fifthofitsfarmlandwaslosingtopsoilatarate18todiminishthesoil’sproductivity.Thecountrysubsequently19aprogramtoconvert11percentofitscroppedlandtomeadoworforest.TopsoilinIndiaandChinais20muchfasterthaninAmerica. 16
Theroleofgovernmentsinenvironmentalmanagementisdeficitbutinescapable.Sometimesthestatetriestomanagetheresourcesitownsanddoessobadly.Often1governmentsactinanevenmoreharmfulway.Theyactuallysubsidizetheexploitationand2ofnaturalresources.Awhole3ofpoliciesfromfarm-pricesupporttoprotectionforcoal-miningdoenvironmentaldamageandoften4noeconomicsense.Makinggoodpoliciesoffersatwo-fold5:acleanerenvironmentpoliliciansandamoreefficienteconomy.Crowthandenvironmentalismcanactuallygohandinhandifpoliticianshavethecourageto6thevestedinterestthatsubsidiescreate. Noactivityaffectsmoreoftheearth’ssurfacethanfarminghshapesathirdoftheplanet’slandareanot7Antarcticaandtheproportionisrising.Worldfoodoutputperheadhasrisenby4percentbetweenthe1970sand1980smainlyasaresultofincreasesin8fromlandalreadyin9butalsobecausemorelandhasbeenbroughtundertheplough.Higheryieldshavebeenachievedbyincreasedirrigationbettercropbreedinganda10intheuseofpesticidesandchemicalfertilizersinthe1970sand1980s. Alltheseactivitiesmayhave11environmentalimpacts.Forexamplelandclearingforagrieuhureisthelargestsingle12ofdeforestation;chemicalfertilizersandpesticidesmay13watersupplies;moreintensivefarmingandtheabandonmentoffallowperiods14worsensoilerosion;andthespreadofmonochordanduseofhigh-yieldingvarietiesofeuroshavebeenaccompaniedbythe15ofoldvarietiesoffoodplantswhichmighthaveprovidedsome16againstpestsordiseasesinfuture.Soilerosionthreatenstheproductivityoflandinbothrichandpoorcountries.TheUnitedStates17themostcarefulmeasurementshavebeendonediscoveredin1982thataboutone-fifthofitsfarmlandwaslosingtopsoilatarate18todiminishthesoil’sproductivity.Thecountrysubsequently19aprogramtoconvert11percentofitscroppedlandtomeadoworforest.TopsoilinIndiaandChinais20muchfasterthaninAmerica. 8
ThefirsttechnologicalrevolutioninmodernbiologystartedwhenJamesWatsonandFrancisCrickdescribedthestructureofDNAhalfacenturyago.Thatestablishedthefieldsofmolecularandcellbiologythebasisofthebiotechnologyindustry.Thesequencingofthehumangenomenearlyadecadeagosetoffasecondrevolutionwhichhasstartedtoilluminatetheoriginsofdiseases.Nowtheindustryisconvincedthatathirdrevolutionisunderway:theconvergenceofbiologyandengineering.ArecentreportfromtheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologysaysthatphysicalscienceshavealreadybeentransformedbytheiradoptionofinformationtechnologyadvancedmaterialsimagingnanotechnolugyandsophisticatedmodellingandsimulation.PhillipSharpaNobelprize-winneratthatuniversitybelievesthatthosetoolsareabouttobebroughttobearonbiologytoo.Butthechancesarethatthiswilltaketimeandturnouttobemoreofareformationthanarevolution.Theconventionalhealth-caresystemsoftherichworldmayresistnewtechnologiesevenaspoorcountriesleapfrogahead.Thereisalreadyabacklashagainstgenomicswhichhasbeenoversoldtoconsumersasadeterministicscience.Andgivensoaringhealth-carecostsinsurersandhealthsystemsmaynotwanttoadoptnewtechnologiesunlessinventorscanshowconclusivelythattheywillproducebetteroutcomesandoffervalueformoney.Iftheseobstaclescanbeovercomethenthebiggestwinnerwillbethepatient.Inthepastmedicinehastakenapaternalisticstancewiththeall-knowingphysiciandispensingwisdomfromonhighbutthatisbecomingincreasinglyuntenable.Digitisationpromisestoconnectdoctorsnotonlytoeverythingtheyneedtoknowabouttheirpatientsbutalsotootherdoctorswhohavetreatedsimilardisorders.Thatessentialreformwillenablemanyotherbigtechnologicalchangestobeintroduced.Justasimportantitcanmakethatinformationavailabletothepatientstooempoweringthemtoplayabiggerpartinmanagingtheirownhealthaffairs.Thisiscontroversialandwithgoodreason.Manydoctorsandsomepatientsreckontheylacktheknowledgetomakeinformeddecisions.Butpatientsactuallyknowagreatdealaboutmanydiseasesespeciallychroniconeslikediabetesandheartproblemswithwhichtheyoftenliveformanyyears.Thebestwaytodealwiththoseisforindividualstotakemoreresponsibilityfortheirownhealthandpreventproblemsbeforetheyrequirecostlyhospitalvisits.Thatmeansputtingelectronichealthrecordsdirectlyintopatients’hands.Whatwillaphysicianprobablydointhefutureifheencountersadifficultandraredisease
Shoppinghasalwaysbeensomethingofanimpulseactivityinwhichobjectsthatcatchourfancywhilestrollingareimmediatelyboughtonawhim.Advertisersandsellershavetakenadvantageofthisfactcarefullypositioninginexpensivebutattractiveitemsonpathsthatwearemostlikelytocrosshopingthatourhumannaturewillleadtoagreaterprofitforthem.WiththedawnoftheInternetanditsexplodinguseacrosstheworldthesametacticsapply.Advertisersnowplacebannerslinkstocommercialwebsitesdecoratedwithattractivepicturesdesignedtocatchoureyeswhilebrowsingthewebsonkeywebsiteswithheavytraffic.Theypaytopdollarfortherightthuscreatingprofitsforthehostingwebsiteaswell.Theseactionsareperformedinthehopesthatduringthecourseofourcasualandleisurelywebsurfingwe’llclickonthatbannerthatsparksourinterestandthusintheorybuytheproductsadvertised.Initialresultshavebeenpositive.Websitesreportahugeinflowofcashbothfromtheadvertiserswhotemptcustomersinwiththebannersandthehostingwebsiteswhicharepaidforallowingthebannerstobeputinplace.AstrustandconfidenceinInternetbuyingincreasesandinformationsecurityisheightenedwithnewtechnologythevolumeofbuyingisincreasingleadingtoevengreaterprofits.Thecurrentsituationhoweverisnotquiteasoptimistic.Justasmagazinereaderstendtounconsciouslyignoreadvertisementsintheirfavoriteperiodicalswebbrowsersarebeginningtoallowbannerstosliptheirnoticeaswell.Internetusersrespondtothefloodofbannersbyviewingthemasannoyancesanegativeimagethatishurtingsalessinceusersarenowlessreluctanttoclickonthosebannerspreferringnottosupportthesystemthatputstheminplace.IfInternetadvertisingistocontinuetobeaviableandprofitablebusinesspracticenewmethodswillneedtobeconsideredtoreinvigoratetheindustry.Withtherecentdepressioninthetechnologysectorandslowingeconomyevennewpracticesmaynotdothetrick.AsconsumersaresavingmoreandfrequentingtraditionalrealestatebusinessesovertheirInternetcounterpartsthefateofInternetbusinessiscalledintoquestion.Thecomingyearswillbetheonlyreliableindicationofwhethershoppingontheworldwidewebisthewaveofthefutureorsimplyanimpulseactivitywhosewhimhaspassed.Thesecondandthirdparagraphsarewritteninordertoillustrate
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