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体内缺铁初期的最早最可靠的诊断依据是
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体内缺铁初期的最早最可靠的诊断依据是
血清总铁结合力增高
血清转铁蛋白饱和度下降
典型的小细胞低色素性贫血
血清铁减低
骨髓贮存铁减少或缺乏
体内缺铁初期的最早最可靠的诊断依据是
典型的小细胞低色索性贫血血象
血清总铁结合力增高
血清铁减低
骨髓贮存铁减少或缺乏
血清转运铁蛋白饱和度下降
体内缺铁初期的最早最可靠的诊断依据是
典型的小细胞低色素性贫血血象
血清总铁结合力增高
血清铁减低
骨髓贮存铁减少或缺乏
血清转运铁蛋白饱和度下降
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Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
CouldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturnSinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarchthepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost$26abarrelupfromlessthan$10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshockwhenpricesquadrupledand1979―80whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowthatthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemispherecouldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm. Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEuropetaxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailpricesoevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast. Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywereandsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservationashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavyenergy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Softwareconsultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDPinconstantpricesricheconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthatifoilpricesaveraged$22abarrelforafullyearcomparedwith$13in1998thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhandoil-importingemergingeconomies--towhichheavyindustryhasshifted--havebecomemoreenergy-intensiveandsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed. Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthatunliketherisesinthe1970sithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist’’scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%andin1979byalmost30%.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
1effectofthecountry’’sgrowinghumanpopulationonitswildlife 2possiblereasonfortheeffect 3yoursuggestionforwildlifeprotection
DoanimalshaverightsThisishowthequestionisusuallyput.Itsoundslikeausefulground-clearingwaytostart.71.Actuallyitisn’’tbecauseitassumesthatthereisanagreedaccountofhumanfightswhichissomethingtheworlddoesnothave. Ononeviewofrightstobesureitnecessarilyfollowsthatanimalshavenone.72.Somephilosophersarguethatrightsexistonlywithinasocialcontractaspartofanexchangeofdutiesandentitlements.Thereforeanimalscannothaverights.Theideaofpunishingatigerthatkillssomebodyisabsurdforexactlythesamereasonsoistheideathattigershaverights.Howeverthisisonlyoneaccountandbynomeansanuncontestedone.Itdeniesrightsnotonlytoanimalsbutalsotosomepeople―forinstancetoinfantsthementallyincapableandfuturegenerations.Inadditionitisunclearwhatforceacontractcanhaveforpeoplewhoneverconsentedtoit:howdoyoureplytosomebodywhosaysIdon’’tlikethiscontract Thepointisthis:withoutagreementontherightsofpeoplearguingabouttherightsofanimalsisfruitless.73.Itleadsthediscussiontoextremesattheoutset:itinvitesyoutothinkthatanimalsshouldbetreatedeitherwiththeconsiderationhumansextendtootherhumansorwithnoconsiderationatall.Thisisafalsechoice.Bettertostartwithanothermorefundamentalquestion:isthewaywetreatanimalsamoralissueatall Manydenyit.74.Arguingfromtheviewthathumansaredifferentfromanimalsineveryrelevantrespectextremistsofthiskindthinkthatanimalslieoutsidetheareaofmoralchoice.Anyregardforthesufferingofanimalsisseenatamistake―asentimentaldisplacementoffeelingthatshouldproperlybedirectedtootherhumans. Thisviewwhichholdsthattorturingamonkeyismorallyequivalenttochoppingwoodmayseembravelylogical.Infactitissimplyshallow:theconfusedcentreisrighttorejectit.Themostelementaryformofmoralreasoning―theethicalequivalentoflearningtocrawl―istoweighother’’sinterestsagainstone’’sown.Thisinturnrequiressympathyandimagination:withoutwhichthereisnocapacityformoralthought.Toseeananimalinpainisenoughformosttoengagesympathy.75.Whenthathappensitisnotamistake:itismankind’’sinstinctformoralreasoninginactionaninstinctthatshouldbeencouragedratherthanlaughedat.
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Accordingtothetextdecreasedevaporationismostlikelytobringabout
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Tight-lippedeldersusedtosayIt’’snotwhatyouwantinthisworldbutwhatyouget. Psychologyteachesthatyoudogetwhatyouwantifyouknowwhatyouwantandwanttherightthings. Youcanmakeamentalblueprintofadesireasyouwouldmakeablueprintofahouseandeachofusiscontinuallymakingtheseblueprintsinthegeneralroutineofeverydayliving.Ifweintendtohavefriendstodinnerweplanthemenumakeashoppinglistdecidewhichfoodtocookfirstandsuchplanningisanessentialforanytypeofmealtobeserved. Likewiseifyouwanttofindajobtakeasheetofpaperandwriteabriefaccountofyourself.Inmakingablueprintforajobbeginwithyourselfforwhenyouknowexactlywhatyouhavetoofferyoucanintelligentlyplanwheretosellyourservices. Thisaccountofyourselfisactuallyasketchofyourworkinglifeandshouldincludeeducationexperienceandreferences.Suchanaccountisvaluable.Itcanbereferredtoinfillingoutstandardapplicationblanksandisextremelyhelpfulinpersonalinterviews.Whiletalkingtoyouyourcould-beemployerisdecidingwhetheryoureducationyourexperienceandotherqualificationswillpayhimtoemployyouandyourwaresandabilitiesmustbedisplayedinanorderlyandreasonablyconnectedmanner. Whenyouhavecarefullypreparedablueprintofyourabilitiesanddesiresyouhavesomethingtangibletosell.Thenyouarereadytohuntforajob.Getallthepossibleinformationaboutyourcouldbejob.Makeinquiriesastothedetailsregardingthejobandthefirm.Keepyoureyesandearsopenanduseyourownjudgement.Spendacertainamountoftimeeachdayseekingtheemploymentyouwishforandkeepinmind:Securingajobisyourjobnow. Ablueprintmadebeforeinvitingafriendtodinnerisusedinthispassageas_______________.
DoanimalshaverightsThisishowthequestionisusuallyput.Itsoundslikeausefulground-clearingwaytostart.71.Actuallyitisn’’tbecauseitassumesthatthereisanagreedaccountofhumanfightswhichissomethingtheworlddoesnothave. Ononeviewofrightstobesureitnecessarilyfollowsthatanimalshavenone.72.Somephilosophersarguethatrightsexistonlywithinasocialcontractaspartofanexchangeofdutiesandentitlements.Thereforeanimalscannothaverights.Theideaofpunishingatigerthatkillssomebodyisabsurdforexactlythesamereasonsoistheideathattigershaverights.Howeverthisisonlyoneaccountandbynomeansanuncontestedone.Itdeniesrightsnotonlytoanimalsbutalsotosomepeople―forinstancetoinfantsthementallyincapableandfuturegenerations.Inadditionitisunclearwhatforceacontractcanhaveforpeoplewhoneverconsentedtoit:howdoyoureplytosomebodywhosaysIdon’’tlikethiscontract Thepointisthis:withoutagreementontherightsofpeoplearguingabouttherightsofanimalsisfruitless.73.Itleadsthediscussiontoextremesattheoutset:itinvitesyoutothinkthatanimalsshouldbetreatedeitherwiththeconsiderationhumansextendtootherhumansorwithnoconsiderationatall.Thisisafalsechoice.Bettertostartwithanothermorefundamentalquestion:isthewaywetreatanimalsamoralissueatall Manydenyit.74.Arguingfromtheviewthathumansaredifferentfromanimalsineveryrelevantrespectextremistsofthiskindthinkthatanimalslieoutsidetheareaofmoralchoice.Anyregardforthesufferingofanimalsisseenatamistake―asentimentaldisplacementoffeelingthatshouldproperlybedirectedtootherhumans. Thisviewwhichholdsthattorturingamonkeyismorallyequivalenttochoppingwoodmayseembravelylogical.Infactitissimplyshallow:theconfusedcentreisrighttorejectit.Themostelementaryformofmoralreasoning―theethicalequivalentoflearningtocrawl―istoweighother’’sinterestsagainstone’’sown.Thisinturnrequiressympathyandimagination:withoutwhichthereisnocapacityformoralthought.Toseeananimalinpainisenoughformosttoengagesympathy.75.Whenthathappensitisnotamistake:itismankind’’sinstinctformoralreasoninginactionaninstinctthatshouldbeencouragedratherthanlaughedat.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Tight-lippedeldersusedtosayIt’’snotwhatyouwantinthisworldbutwhatyouget. Psychologyteachesthatyoudogetwhatyouwantifyouknowwhatyouwantandwanttherightthings. Youcanmakeamentalblueprintofadesireasyouwouldmakeablueprintofahouseandeachofusiscontinuallymakingtheseblueprintsinthegeneralroutineofeverydayliving.Ifweintendtohavefriendstodinnerweplanthemenumakeashoppinglistdecidewhichfoodtocookfirstandsuchplanningisanessentialforanytypeofmealtobeserved. Likewiseifyouwanttofindajobtakeasheetofpaperandwriteabriefaccountofyourself.Inmakingablueprintforajobbeginwithyourselfforwhenyouknowexactlywhatyouhavetoofferyoucanintelligentlyplanwheretosellyourservices. Thisaccountofyourselfisactuallyasketchofyourworkinglifeandshouldincludeeducationexperienceandreferences.Suchanaccountisvaluable.Itcanbereferredtoinfillingoutstandardapplicationblanksandisextremelyhelpfulinpersonalinterviews.Whiletalkingtoyouyourcould-beemployerisdecidingwhetheryoureducationyourexperienceandotherqualificationswillpayhimtoemployyouandyourwaresandabilitiesmustbedisplayedinanorderlyandreasonablyconnectedmanner. Whenyouhavecarefullypreparedablueprintofyourabilitiesanddesiresyouhavesomethingtangibletosell.Thenyouarereadytohuntforajob.Getallthepossibleinformationaboutyourcouldbejob.Makeinquiriesastothedetailsregardingthejobandthefirm.Keepyoureyesandearsopenanduseyourownjudgement.Spendacertainamountoftimeeachdayseekingtheemploymentyouwishforandkeepinmind:Securingajobisyourjobnow. Whenyouhavecarefullypreparedablueprintofyourabilitiesanddesiresyouhavesomething_______________.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Theexampleofozonereductionisusedtoshowthe
Overthepastcenturyallkindsofunfairnessanddiscriminationhavebeencondemnedormadeillegal.Butoneinsidiousformcontinuestothrivealphabetism.Thisforthoseasyetunawareofsuchadisadvantagereferstodiscriminationagainstthosewhosesurnamesbeginwithaletterinthelowerhalfofthealphabet. IthaslongbeenknownthatataxifinncalledAAAAcarshasabigadvantageoverZodiaccarswhencustomersthumbthroughtheirphonedirectories.LesswellknownistheadvantagethatAdamAbbotthasinlifeoverZoZysman.Englishnamesarefairlyevenlyspreadbetweenthehalvesofthealphabet.YetasuspiciouslylargenumberoftoppeoplehavesurnamesbeginningwithlettersbetweenAandK. ThustheAmericanpresidentandvice-presidenthavesurnamesstartingwithBandCrespectively;and26ofGeorgeBush’’spredecessorsincludinghisfatherhadsurnamesinthefirsthalfofthealphabetagainstjust16inthesecondhalf.EvenmorestrikingsixofthesevenheadsofgovernmentoftheG7richcountriesarealphabeticallyadvantagedBerlusconiBlairBushChiracChretienandKoizumi.Theworld’’sthreetopcentralbankersGreenspanDuisenbergandHayamiareallclosetothetopofthealphabetevenifoneofthemreallyusesJapanesecharacters.Asaretheworld’’sfiverichestmenGatesBuffettAllenEllisonandAlbrecht. CanthismerelybecoincidenceOnetheorydreamtupinallthesparetimeenjoyedbythealphabeticallydisadvantagedisthattherotsetsinearly.Atthestartofthefirstyearininfantschoolteachersseatpupilsalphabeticallyfromthefronttomakeiteasiertoremembertheirnames.Soshort-sightedZysmanjuniorgetsstuckinthebackrowandisrarelyaskedtheimprovingquestionsposedbythoseinsensitiveteachers.Atthetimethealphabeticallydisadvantagedmaythinktheyhavehadaluckyescape.Yettheresultmaybeworsequalificationsbecausetheygetlessindividualattentionaswellaslessconfidenceinspeakingpublicly. Thehumiliationcontinues.AtuniversitygraduationceremoniestheABCsproudlygettheirawardsfirst;bythetimetheyreachfileZysmansmostpeopleareliterallyhavingaZZZ.Shortlistsforjobinterviewselectionballotpaperslistsofconferencespeakersandattendees:alltendtobedrawnupalphabeticallyandtheirrecipientsloseinterestastheyploughthroughthem. WhatdoestheauthormeanbymostpeopleareliterallyhavingaZZZLine2Paragraph5.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
CouldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturnSinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarchthepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost$26abarrelupfromlessthan$10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshockwhenpricesquadrupledand1979―80whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowthatthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemispherecouldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm. Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEuropetaxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailpricesoevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast. Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywereandsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservationashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavyenergy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Softwareconsultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDPinconstantpricesricheconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthatifoilpricesaveraged$22abarrelforafullyearcomparedwith$13in1998thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhandoil-importingemergingeconomies--towhichheavyindustryhasshifted--havebecomemoreenergy-intensiveandsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed. Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthatunliketherisesinthe1970sithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist’’scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%andin1979byalmost30%.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
DoanimalshaverightsThisishowthequestionisusuallyput.Itsoundslikeausefulground-clearingwaytostart.71.Actuallyitisn’’tbecauseitassumesthatthereisanagreedaccountofhumanfightswhichissomethingtheworlddoesnothave. Ononeviewofrightstobesureitnecessarilyfollowsthatanimalshavenone.72.Somephilosophersarguethatrightsexistonlywithinasocialcontractaspartofanexchangeofdutiesandentitlements.Thereforeanimalscannothaverights.Theideaofpunishingatigerthatkillssomebodyisabsurdforexactlythesamereasonsoistheideathattigershaverights.Howeverthisisonlyoneaccountandbynomeansanuncontestedone.Itdeniesrightsnotonlytoanimalsbutalsotosomepeople―forinstancetoinfantsthementallyincapableandfuturegenerations.Inadditionitisunclearwhatforceacontractcanhaveforpeoplewhoneverconsentedtoit:howdoyoureplytosomebodywhosaysIdon’’tlikethiscontract Thepointisthis:withoutagreementontherightsofpeoplearguingabouttherightsofanimalsisfruitless.73.Itleadsthediscussiontoextremesattheoutset:itinvitesyoutothinkthatanimalsshouldbetreatedeitherwiththeconsiderationhumansextendtootherhumansorwithnoconsiderationatall.Thisisafalsechoice.Bettertostartwithanothermorefundamentalquestion:isthewaywetreatanimalsamoralissueatall Manydenyit.74.Arguingfromtheviewthathumansaredifferentfromanimalsineveryrelevantrespectextremistsofthiskindthinkthatanimalslieoutsidetheareaofmoralchoice.Anyregardforthesufferingofanimalsisseenatamistake―asentimentaldisplacementoffeelingthatshouldproperlybedirectedtootherhumans. Thisviewwhichholdsthattorturingamonkeyismorallyequivalenttochoppingwoodmayseembravelylogical.Infactitissimplyshallow:theconfusedcentreisrighttorejectit.Themostelementaryformofmoralreasoning―theethicalequivalentoflearningtocrawl―istoweighother’’sinterestsagainstone’’sown.Thisinturnrequiressympathyandimagination:withoutwhichthereisnocapacityformoralthought.Toseeananimalinpainisenoughformosttoengagesympathy.75.Whenthathappensitisnotamistake:itismankind’’sinstinctformoralreasoninginactionaninstinctthatshouldbeencouragedratherthanlaughedat. DoanimalshaverightsThisishowthequestionisusuallyput.Itsoundslikeausefulground-clearingwaytostart.71.Actuallyitisn’’tbecauseitassumesthatthereisanagreedaccountofhumanfightswhichissomethingtheworlddoesnothave. Ononeviewofrightstobesureitnecessarilyfollowsthatanimalshavenone.72.Somephilosophersarguethatrightsexistonlywithinasocialcontractaspartofanexchangeofdutiesandentitlements.Thereforeanimalscannothaverights.Theideaofpunishingatigerthatkillssomebodyisabsurdforexactlythesamereasonsoistheideathattigershaverights.Howeverthisisonlyoneaccountandbynomeansanuncontestedone.Itdeniesrightsnotonlytoanimalsbutalsotosomepeople―forinstancetoinfantsthementallyincapableandfuturegenerations.Inadditionitisunclearwhatforceacontractcanhaveforpeoplewhoneverconsentedtoit:howdoyoureplytosomebodywhosaysIdon’’tlikethiscontract Thepointisthis:withoutagreementontherightsofpeoplearguingabouttherightsofanimalsisfruitless.73.Itleadsthediscussiontoextremesattheoutset:itinvitesyoutothinkthatanimalsshouldbetreatedeitherwiththeconsiderationhumansextendtootherhumansorwithnoconsiderationatall.Thisisafalsechoice.Bettertostartwithanothermorefundamentalquestion:isthewaywetreatanimalsamoralissueatall Manydenyit.74.Arguingfromtheviewthathumansaredifferentfromanimalsineveryrelevantrespectextremistsofthiskindthinkthatanimalslieoutsidetheareaofmoralchoice.Anyregardforthesufferingofanimalsisseenatamistake―asentimentaldisplacementoffeelingthatshouldproperlybedirectedtootherhumans. Thisviewwhichholdsthattorturingamonkeyismorallyequivalenttochoppingwoodmayseembravelylogical.Infactitissimplyshallow:theconfusedcentreisrighttorejectit.Themostelementaryformofmoralreasoning―theethicalequivalentoflearningtocrawl―istoweighother’’sinterestsagainstone’’sown.Thisinturnrequiressympathyandimagination:withoutwhichthereisnocapacityformoralthought.Toseeananimalinpainisenoughformosttoengagesympathy.75.Whenthathappensitisnotamistake:itismankind’’sinstinctformoralreasoninginactionaninstinctthatshouldbeencouragedratherthanlaughedat.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Overthepastcenturyallkindsofunfairnessanddiscriminationhavebeencondemnedormadeillegal.Butoneinsidiousformcontinuestothrivealphabetism.Thisforthoseasyetunawareofsuchadisadvantagereferstodiscriminationagainstthosewhosesurnamesbeginwithaletterinthelowerhalfofthealphabet. IthaslongbeenknownthatataxifinncalledAAAAcarshasabigadvantageoverZodiaccarswhencustomersthumbthroughtheirphonedirectories.LesswellknownistheadvantagethatAdamAbbotthasinlifeoverZoZysman.Englishnamesarefairlyevenlyspreadbetweenthehalvesofthealphabet.YetasuspiciouslylargenumberoftoppeoplehavesurnamesbeginningwithlettersbetweenAandK. ThustheAmericanpresidentandvice-presidenthavesurnamesstartingwithBandCrespectively;and26ofGeorgeBush’’spredecessorsincludinghisfatherhadsurnamesinthefirsthalfofthealphabetagainstjust16inthesecondhalf.EvenmorestrikingsixofthesevenheadsofgovernmentoftheG7richcountriesarealphabeticallyadvantagedBerlusconiBlairBushChiracChretienandKoizumi.Theworld’’sthreetopcentralbankersGreenspanDuisenbergandHayamiareallclosetothetopofthealphabetevenifoneofthemreallyusesJapanesecharacters.Asaretheworld’’sfiverichestmenGatesBuffettAllenEllisonandAlbrecht. CanthismerelybecoincidenceOnetheorydreamtupinallthesparetimeenjoyedbythealphabeticallydisadvantagedisthattherotsetsinearly.Atthestartofthefirstyearininfantschoolteachersseatpupilsalphabeticallyfromthefronttomakeiteasiertoremembertheirnames.Soshort-sightedZysmanjuniorgetsstuckinthebackrowandisrarelyaskedtheimprovingquestionsposedbythoseinsensitiveteachers.Atthetimethealphabeticallydisadvantagedmaythinktheyhavehadaluckyescape.Yettheresultmaybeworsequalificationsbecausetheygetlessindividualattentionaswellaslessconfidenceinspeakingpublicly. Thehumiliationcontinues.AtuniversitygraduationceremoniestheABCsproudlygettheirawardsfirst;bythetimetheyreachfileZysmansmostpeopleareliterallyhavingaZZZ.Shortlistsforjobinterviewselectionballotpaperslistsofconferencespeakersandattendees:alltendtobedrawnupalphabeticallyandtheirrecipientsloseinterestastheyploughthroughthem. Whatcanweinferfromthefirstthreeparagraphs
CouldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturnSinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarchthepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost$26abarrelupfromlessthan$10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshockwhenpricesquadrupledand1979―80whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowthatthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemispherecouldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm. Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEuropetaxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailpricesoevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast. Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywereandsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservationashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavyenergy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Softwareconsultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDPinconstantpricesricheconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthatifoilpricesaveraged$22abarrelforafullyearcomparedwith$13in1998thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhandoil-importingemergingeconomies--towhichheavyindustryhasshifted--havebecomemoreenergy-intensiveandsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed. Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthatunliketherisesinthe1970sithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist’’scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%andin1979byalmost30%. CouldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturnSinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarchthepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost$26abarrelupfromlessthan$10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshockwhenpricesquadrupledand1979―80whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowthatthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemispherecouldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm. Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEuropetaxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailpricesoevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast. Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywereandsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservationashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavyenergy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Softwareconsultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDPinconstantpricesricheconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthatifoilpricesaveraged$22abarrelforafullyearcomparedwith$13in1998thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhandoil-importingemergingeconomies--towhichheavyindustryhasshifted--havebecomemoreenergy-intensiveandsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed. Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthatunliketherisesinthe1970sithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist’’scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%andin1979byalmost30%.
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