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Text 2 Now that many media chieftains have fallen into disrepute and have left, those who are s...
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Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCandDonANSWERSHEET1.5
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCandDonANSWERSHEET1.19
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCandDonANSWERSHEET1.17
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCandDonANSWERSHEET1.11
Text3 Asia’srealboat-rockerisagrowingChinanotJapanaseniorAmericaneconomistobserved. Thereissomuchnoisesurroundingandemanatingfromtheworld’smiracleeconomythatitisbecomingcacophonous.InWashingtonD.C.thelatestideaisthatChinaisbecomingtoosuccessfulperhapsevendangerouslyso:whileCapitolHillresoundswithcomplaintsoftradesurplusesandcurrencymanipulationthePentagonandsundrythink-tanksechotoanewdrumbeatofanalystsworryingaboutChina’s12.6%annualriseinmilitaryspendingandaboutwhetheritmightsoonhavetheabilitytotakepreemptivemilitaryactiontoforceTaiwantorejoinit.Soitmaybenocoincidencethatfor threeconsecutiveweekendsthestreetsofbigChinesecitieshavebeenfilledwiththesoundsofdemonstratorsmarchingandrocksbeingthrownallseekingtosendadifferentmessage:thatJapanistheprobleminAsianotChinabecauseofitswantonfailuretofaceuptoitshistory;andthatbycosyinguptoJapaninsecuritymattersAmericaisallyingwithAsia’spariah. Deafnessisnottheonlyriskfromallthisnoise.ThepressuretowardsprotectionisminWashingtonisstrongandcouldputinfurtherdangernotonlytradewithChinabutalsothewiderclimatefortradeliberalisationintheDoharoundoftheWorldTradeOrganisationWTO.SofarwordshavebeenthemainweaponsusedbetweenChinaandJapanbutthereisachancethatnationalismineitherorbothcountriescouldleadthegovernmentstostrikeconfrontationalposesovertheirterritorialdisputesintheseasthatdividethemeveninvolvingtheirnavies.AndthemorethatnationalistpositionsbecomeentrenchedinbothcountriesbutespeciallyChinathemorethatstreetprotestscouldbecomestirredupperhapstowardsmoreviolence. Alltheseissuesarecomplexonesandasisoftenthecaseintradeandinhistoricaldisputesfindingsolutionsislikelytobefarfromsimple.ArevaluationoftheyuanasdemandedinCongresswouldnotrebalancetradebetweenAmericaandChinathoughitmighthelpalittleinduecourse.A"sincere"apologybyJapanforitswartimeatrocitiesmightalsohelpalittlebutitwouldnotsuddenlyturnAsia’snaturalgreat-powerrivalsintobosombuddies.Forbehindallthenoiseliesonebigfact:thatitistheriseofChinanotthestatusorconductofJapanthatposesAsia’sthorniestquestions. WhatisthemaincauseoftheissuesinAsiaaccordingtotheauthor
Text2 EveryspringmigratingsalmonreturntoBritishColumbia’sriverstospawn.Andeveryspringnewreportsdetailfreshdisastersthatbefallthem.Thisyearisnodifferent.ThefisheriescommitteeofCanada’sHouseofCommonsandaformerchiefjusticeofBritishColumbiaBryanWilliamshavejustexaminedseparatelywhy1.3millionsockeyesalmonmysteriously"disappeared"fromthefamedFraserriverfisheryin2004.TheirconclusionspointtoapoliticallyexplosiveconflictbetweenthesurvivalofsalmonandtherightsofFirstNationsasCanadianscallIndians. In2004onlyabout524000salmonarethoughttohavereturnedtothespawninggroundsbarelymorethanaquarterthenumberwhomadeitfouryearsearlier.Highwatertemperaturesmayhavekilledmany.TheHouseofCommonsalsolambastedthefederalDepartmentofFisheriesandOceansDFOforpoorscientificdataandforfailingtoenforcecatchlevels.Foursimilarreportssince1992havecalledforthedepartment’sreform.Invain:itsseniorofficialsare"indenial"aboutits’failingssaidthecommittee. Mr.Williams’reportaddedamoreshockingtwist.HeconcludedthatillegalfishingontheFraserriveris"rampantandoutofcontrol"with"nogo"zoneswherefisheriesofficersaretoldnottoconfrontIndianpoachersforfearofviolence.ThejudgecomplainedthattheDFOwithheldareportbyoneofitsinvestigatorswhichdetailedextensivepoachingandsaleofsalmonbymembersoftheCheamFirstNationsomeofwhomwerearmed. SomeFirstNationsclaimanunrestrictedrighttofishandselltheircatch.Canada’sconstitutionacknowledgestheaboriginalrighttofishforfoodandforsocialandceremonialneedsbutnotageneralcommercialright.OntheFraserhowevertheDFOhasgrantedIndiansaspecialcommercialfishery.TosomeIndianseventhatisnotenough. BothreportscalledformorefundsfortheDFOtoimprovedatacollectionandenforcement.TheyalsorecommendedreturningtoasinglelegalregimeforcommercialfishingapplyingtoallCanadians. OnApril14thGeoffReganthefederalfisheriesministerrespondedtotwopreviousreportsfromayearago.OnefromaFirstNationsgroupsuggestedgivingnativesarisingshareofthecatch.Theotherproposedanewquotasystemforfishinglicencesandtheconclusionoflong-standingtalksontreatiesincludingfishingrightswithFirstNations.Mr.Regansaidhisdepartmentwouldspendthisyearconsulting"stakeholders"nativescommercialandsportfishermen.ItwillalsolaunchpilotprojectsaimedatimprovingconservationenforcementandFirstNations’accesstofisheries. WhatdoesFirstNationsreferto
Text1 IfthevariousadvocatesoftheconflictingoptionsareallsmartexperiencedandwellinformedwhydotheydisagreesocompletelyWouldn’ttheyallhavethoughttheissuethroughcarefullyandcometoapproximatelythesame"best"--conclusion Theanswertothatcrucialquestionliesinthestructureofthehumanbrainandthewayitprocessesinformation. Mosthumanbeingsactuallydecidebeforetheythink.Whenanyhumanbeing--executivespecializedexpertorpersoninthestree--encountersacomplexissueandformsanopinionoftenwithinamatterofsecondshowthoroughlyhasheorsheexploredtheimplicationsofthevariouscoursesofactionAnswer:notverythoroughly.Veryfewpeoplenomatterhowintelligentorexperiencedcantakeinventoryofthemanybranchingpossibilitiespossibleoutcomessideeffectsandundesiredconsequencesofapolicyoracourseofactioninamatterofseconds.Yetthosewhopridethemselvesonbeingdecisiveoftentrytodojustthat.Andoncetheirbrainslockontoanopinionmostoftheirthinkingthereafterconsistsoffindingsupportforit. Averyserioussideeffectofargumentativedecisionmakingcanbealackofsupportforthechosencourseofactiononthepartofthe"losing"faction.Whenonefactionwinsthemeetingandtheothersseethemselvesaslosingthebattleoftendoesn’tendwhenthemeetingends.Angerresentmentandjealousymayleadthemtosabotagethedecisionlaterortoreopenthedebateatlatermeetings. Thereisabetterway.AsphilosopherAldousHuxleysaid"Itisn’twhoisrightbutwhatisrightthatcounts."Thestructured-inquirymethodoffersabetteralternativetoargumentativedecisionmakingbydebate.WiththehelpoftheInternetandwirelesscomputertechnologythegapbetweenexpertsandexecutivesisnowbeingdramaticallyclosed.Byactuallyputtingthebrakesonthethinkingprocessslowingitdownandorganizingtheflowoflogicit’spossibletocreatealevelofclaritythatsheerargumentationcannevermatch. Thestructured-inquiryprocessintroducesalevelofconceptualclaritybyorganizingthecontributionsoftheexpertsthenbringstheexpertsandthedecisionmakersclosertogether.Althoughitisn’tpossibleornecessaryforapresidentorprimeministertolisteninoneveryintelligenceanalysismeetingit’spossibletoorganizetheexperts’informationtogivethedecisionmakermuchgreaterinsightastoitsmeaning.Thisprocessmaysomewhatresembleamarketingfocusgroup;it’sasimpleremarkablycleverwaytobringdecisionmakersclosertothesourceoftheexpertinformationandopinionsonwhichtheymustbasetheirdecisions. Fromthefirstthreeparagraphswecanlearnthat
Text1 Pricesareskyhighwithprofitstomatch.Butlookingfurtheraheadtheindustryfaceswrenchingchangesaysanexpertofenergy. "Thetimewhenwecouldcountoncheapoilandevencheapernaturalgasisclearlyending.ThatwasthegloomyforecastdeliveredinFebruarybyDaveO’ReillythechairmanofChevronTexacotohundredsofoilmengatheredforaconferenceinHouston.ThefollowingmonthVenezuela’sPresidentHugoChavezgleefullyechoedthesentiment:"Theworldshouldforgetaboutcheapoil." Thesurgeinoilpricesfrom＄10abarrelin1998toabove＄50inearly2005haspromptedtalkofaneweraofsustainedhigherprices.Butwhenevera"newera"inoilishailedscepticismisinorder.Afterallthisisessentiallyacyclicalbusinessinwhichpriceshabituallyyo-yo.EvensoanunusuallyloudchorusisnowjoiningMessrsO’ReillyandChavezpointingtointriguingevidenceofanew"pricefloor"of＄30orperhapseven＄40.Confusinglythoughtherearealsosignsthathighoilpricesmaybecausedbyaspeculativebubblethatcouldburstquitesuddenly.Toseewhichcampisrighttwoquestionsneedanswering:whydidtheoilpricesoarAndwhatcouldkeepithigh Tomakemattersmorecomplicatedthereisinfactnosuchthingasasingle"oilprice":rathertherearedozensofvarietiesofcrudetradingatdifferentprices.Whennewspaperswriteaboutoilpricestheyusuallymeanoneoftworeferencecrudes:BrentfromtheNorthSeaorWestTexasIntermediateWTI.ButwhenministersfromtheOrganisationofthePetroleumExportingCountriesOPECdiscusspricestheyusuallyrefertoabasketofheaviercartelcrudeswhichtradeatadiscounttoWTIandBrent.AlloilpricesmentionedinthissurveyareperbarrelofWTI. Therecentvolatilityinpricesisonlyoneofseveralchallengesfacingtheoilindustry.AlthoughatfirstsightBigOilseemstobeinrudehealthpostingrecordprofitsthissurveywillarguethatthewesternoilmajorswillhavetheirworkcutouttocopewiththeriseofresourcenationalismwhichthreatenstochokeoffaccesstonewoilreserves.Thisisessentialtoreplacetheirexistingreserveswhicharerapidlydeclining.Theywillalsohavetorespondtoeffortsbygovernmentstodealwithoil’sseriousenvironmentalandgeopoliticalside-effects.Togetherthesechallengescouldyetwipeouttheoilmajors. DaveO'ReillyandHugoChavez.believethat
Everynowandthenastudycomesalongwhosechiefinterestliesinhowpeculiarlyaskewitsfindingsseemtobefromthecommonperceptionofthings.Sometimesofcoursethe"surprisingnewstudy"itselfturnsouttobeoffinsomeway.Butifthedataarefundamentallysoundthenwhatyoureallywanttoknowiswhysensiblepeopleholdsuchacontraryview. 41______.Researcherstookacloserlookatanearlierstudythathadbeenwidelyinterpretedwhenitwasfirstpublishedin2000asproofthatthehomeworkmonsterwasgrowingandinsatiable.ATimemagazinecoverarticlespawnedamini-genreoftrendstoriesallpeopledbypaleexhaustedkidsandbewilderedboomerparentswhoseownhomeworkmemoriesseemedtoencompassonlyfeltpuppetsandshoe-boxdioramas.Butthenewreportpointsoutthatwhiletheamountoftimeschool-children12andunderdevotedtostudyathomedidindeedgrowbetween1981and1997theincreasewassmall:anaverageof23minutesperweek.42______. SowhydosomanyparentsseemtothinkotherwiseOneansweristhattherealincreaseinhomeworkthathasbeendocumentedisamongyoungerchildren.In1981forinstanceonethirdof6to8-year-oldshadsomehomework;one-halfdidinthelate90’s.43______.Andsincechildren6to8aretheonesweparticularlyliketothinkofasengagedinunstructuredplayweimaginethemridingbikesinthehoneyedlightofwaningafternoonsevenwhenwhattheymightwellbedoingintheabsenceofhomeworkiswatchingTVhomeworkforthemseemslikeoneofthoseheavyhandedincursionsonthefreedomofchildhood. 44______.Thesechildrengotoeliteprivateschoolsortodemandingpubliconeswherethecompetitivepressuresaresuchthattheyeitherreallydohavehoursofhomeworkeachnightortakehoursfinishingitbecausetheyortheirparentsaresoanxiousthatitbedonewell.Theycomefromthedemographicthatmakesaculturalalmostamoralidealofenrollingchildreninsoccerandoboelessonsandkarateandballetandsotheirtimereallyisatapremium.45______. [A]Moreover20percentfewerchildrenbetweentheagesof9and12weredoinghomeworkatallin1997thanin1981.Andhigh-schoolstudentsspentnomoretimeonhomeworkthantheydidinpreviousdecades. [B]ThatiscertainlythequestionraisedbyaBrookingsInstitutionreportreleasedlastmonthshowingthattheamountoftimekidsdevotetohomeworkhasnotinfactsignificantlyincreasedoverthelasttwodecades. [C]Behindtheseemingcontradictionsofsteadyhomeworklevelsandtheantihomeworkbacklashinotherwordsistherealityofsocialclass. [D]Theyarelikelytohavebusyprofessionalparentsoversubscribedthemselvesbutwithaninvestmentinseeingtheirchildrenproducebookreportsofakindthatteacherscounselorsandintimecollegeadmissionsboardswillfindimpressive. [E]Anti-homeworkcrusadesarenotnewin1901forexampleCaliforniapassedalawabolishinghomeworkforgradesonethrougheightbuttheyhaveusuallybeenledbythesamekindsofpeoplewhichistosayelites. [F]Sinceparentsaremorelikelytohavetosuperviseafirstorsecondgraderdoinghomeworkthananolderchildtheearlierlaunchingofahomeworkregimenmightfeellikeadisproportionateincreaseintheparentalworkload. [G]ButthebiggeranswerIsuspectisthattheparentswetendtohearfrominthepressatschool-boardmeetingsandinInternetchatgroupstheparentswithelaborateddevelopmentallysavvycritiquesofstandardsandcurriculumsareparentswhosechildrenreallyareexperiencingatimecrunch. 45
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCandDonANSWERSHEET1.13
Text1 IfthevariousadvocatesoftheconflictingoptionsareallsmartexperiencedandwellinformedwhydotheydisagreesocompletelyWouldn’ttheyallhavethoughttheissuethroughcarefullyandcometoapproximatelythesame"best"--conclusion Theanswertothatcrucialquestionliesinthestructureofthehumanbrainandthewayitprocessesinformation. Mosthumanbeingsactuallydecidebeforetheythink.Whenanyhumanbeing--executivespecializedexpertorpersoninthestree--encountersacomplexissueandformsanopinionoftenwithinamatterofsecondshowthoroughlyhasheorsheexploredtheimplicationsofthevariouscoursesofactionAnswer:notverythoroughly.Veryfewpeoplenomatterhowintelligentorexperiencedcantakeinventoryofthemanybranchingpossibilitiespossibleoutcomessideeffectsandundesiredconsequencesofapolicyoracourseofactioninamatterofseconds.Yetthosewhopridethemselvesonbeingdecisiveoftentrytodojustthat.Andoncetheirbrainslockontoanopinionmostoftheirthinkingthereafterconsistsoffindingsupportforit. Averyserioussideeffectofargumentativedecisionmakingcanbealackofsupportforthechosencourseofactiononthepartofthe"losing"faction.Whenonefactionwinsthemeetingandtheothersseethemselvesaslosingthebattleoftendoesn’tendwhenthemeetingends.Angerresentmentandjealousymayleadthemtosabotagethedecisionlaterortoreopenthedebateatlatermeetings. Thereisabetterway.AsphilosopherAldousHuxleysaid"Itisn’twhoisrightbutwhatisrightthatcounts."Thestructured-inquirymethodoffersabetteralternativetoargumentativedecisionmakingbydebate.WiththehelpoftheInternetandwirelesscomputertechnologythegapbetweenexpertsandexecutivesisnowbeingdramaticallyclosed.Byactuallyputtingthebrakesonthethinkingprocessslowingitdownandorganizingtheflowoflogicit’spossibletocreatealevelofclaritythatsheerargumentationcannevermatch. Thestructured-inquiryprocessintroducesalevelofconceptualclaritybyorganizingthecontributionsoftheexpertsthenbringstheexpertsandthedecisionmakersclosertogether.Althoughitisn’tpossibleornecessaryforapresidentorprimeministertolisteninoneveryintelligenceanalysismeetingit’spossibletoorganizetheexperts’informationtogivethedecisionmakermuchgreaterinsightastoitsmeaning.Thisprocessmaysomewhatresembleamarketingfocusgroup;it’sasimpleremarkablycleverwaytobringdecisionmakersclosertothesourceoftheexpertinformationandopinionsonwhichtheymustbasetheirdecisions. Thestructured-inquiryprocesscanbeusefulfor
Text3 Asia’srealboat-rockerisagrowingChinanotJapanaseniorAmericaneconomistobserved. Thereissomuchnoisesurroundingandemanatingfromtheworld’smiracleeconomythatitisbecomingcacophonous.InWashingtonD.C.thelatestideaisthatChinaisbecomingtoosuccessfulperhapsevendangerouslyso:whileCapitolHillresoundswithcomplaintsoftradesurplusesandcurrencymanipulationthePentagonandsundrythink-tanksechotoanewdrumbeatofanalystsworryingaboutChina’s12.6%annualriseinmilitaryspendingandaboutwhetheritmightsoonhavetheabilitytotakepreemptivemilitaryactiontoforceTaiwantorejoinit.Soitmaybenocoincidencethatfor threeconsecutiveweekendsthestreetsofbigChinesecitieshavebeenfilledwiththesoundsofdemonstratorsmarchingandrocksbeingthrownallseekingtosendadifferentmessage:thatJapanistheprobleminAsianotChinabecauseofitswantonfailuretofaceuptoitshistory;andthatbycosyinguptoJapaninsecuritymattersAmericaisallyingwithAsia’spariah. Deafnessisnottheonlyriskfromallthisnoise.ThepressuretowardsprotectionisminWashingtonisstrongandcouldputinfurtherdangernotonlytradewithChinabutalsothewiderclimatefortradeliberalisationintheDoharoundoftheWorldTradeOrganisationWTO.SofarwordshavebeenthemainweaponsusedbetweenChinaandJapanbutthereisachancethatnationalismineitherorbothcountriescouldleadthegovernmentstostrikeconfrontationalposesovertheirterritorialdisputesintheseasthatdividethemeveninvolvingtheirnavies.AndthemorethatnationalistpositionsbecomeentrenchedinbothcountriesbutespeciallyChinathemorethatstreetprotestscouldbecomestirredupperhapstowardsmoreviolence. Alltheseissuesarecomplexonesandasisoftenthecaseintradeandinhistoricaldisputesfindingsolutionsislikelytobefarfromsimple.ArevaluationoftheyuanasdemandedinCongresswouldnotrebalancetradebetweenAmericaandChinathoughitmighthelpalittleinduecourse.A"sincere"apologybyJapanforitswartimeatrocitiesmightalsohelpalittlebutitwouldnotsuddenlyturnAsia’snaturalgreat-powerrivalsintobosombuddies.Forbehindallthenoiseliesonebigfact:thatitistheriseofChinanotthestatusorconductofJapanthatposesAsia’sthorniestquestions. Thetheworld'smiracleeconomyinthebeginningofthesecondparagraphrefersto
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCandDonANSWERSHEET1.3
Text2 ThehotelsarelullJapanesetouriststhrongthedesignerstoresofWaikikiandtheunemploymentrateisamere3%oftheworkforce.SowhatcouldpossiblyknockHawaiithe"aloha"or"welcome”stateoffitswaveTheansweristhatHawaii’s1.2mresidentsmayonedaygetfedupwithplayinghosttooverseasvisitors7mofthemthisyear. Indeedsomeresidentsarealreadyfedup.KAHEAanallianceofenvironmentalistsanddefendersofnativeHawaiianculturebemoansthepollutioncausedbythecruiseshipsandtheriskposedbythetouristhordestocreaturessuchasthedark-rumpedpetrelandtheOahutreesnailortoplantsliketheMarsileavillosafern.KAHEAhasapoint:theUSFish＆WildlifeServicecurrentlylistssome317speciesincluding273plantsintheHawaiianislandsasthreatenedorendangeredthehighestnumberofanystateinthenation.Eventhestateflowerthehibiscusbrackenridgeiisonthedangerlist.Thelossofspeciessaysonegovernmentreporthasbeen"staggering".AsfortheimpactoftourismOnHawaiiancultureaKAHEAspokeswomanwrylynotestheelementofexploitation:"NativeHawaiiancultureisusedasasellingpoint--cometothisparadisewherebeautifulwomenaredoingthehulaonyourdinnerplate." SowhatelseisnewHawaii’senvironmentandculturehavebeenunderthreateversinceCaptainCookandhisgerm-carryingsailorsdroppedanchorin1778.Foreignimportshaveinevitablyhadanimpactonspeciesthatevolvedoverthemillenniainisolation.Moreoverwithupto25nonnativespeciesarrivingeachyeartheimpactwillcontinue.ButastheUSGeologicalSurveyarguestheimpactcanaddtobiodiversityaswellaslessenit.TherealchallengethereforeisforHawaiitofindabalancebetweenthecostsandthebenefitsofdevelopmentingeneralandtourisminparticular. TheBenefitsarenottobesneezedat.Thestate’sunemploymentratehasbeenbelowthenationalaverageforthepasttwoand-a-halfyears.EconomistsattheUniversityofHawaiireckonthatHawaiians’realpersonalincomeroseby2.8%lastyearwillriseby2.7%thisyearandwillcontinuethrough2007at2.5%.Accordingtothestate’s"strategicplan"forthenextdecadetourismshouldtakemuchofthecreditaccountingdirectlyandindirectlyforsome22%ofthestate’sjobsby2007morethan17%ofitseconomicoutputandaround26%ofitstaxrevenues. Thetroubleisthatthecostscanbehightoo.Asoneeconomistputsit"WehaveaManhattancostoflivingandPeoriawagerates."ThattranslatesintoamedianhousepricetodayontheislandofOahuhometothree-quartersofthestate’spopulationof＄500000andaneedformanyworkerstotakeonmorethanonejob. HowdoHawaii'sresidentsreceivetouristsnow
Electronicor"cyber"warfareholdsthepromiseofdestroyinganarmy’sorevenawholenation’s--abilitytofunctionwithouthurtinghumanlife.Thetechnologyisreachingthepointhoweverwherecyberwarfaremaybedecisiveinitsownright.46Inhighlycentralizedmilitaryoperationscommunicationsanddatamanagementhavebecomeessentialtoolslinkingindividualsmallunitsandthecentralcommandstructure. Theneutronbombisoneofthemosthorridweaponseverdevised:Itdoesn’tdamageproperty;itonlykillshigherlife-forms.47Wouldn’ttheoppositebewonderfuladeviceliketherobot’srayinTheDaytheEarthStoodStillwhichmeltsdownweaponsbutnotsoldiersElectronicor"cyber"warfare--hackingintoanenemy’scomputersjammingradiotransmissionsandthelike--holdsthatpromise.Itcandestroyanarmy’s--orevenawholenation’s--abilitytofunctionbutdoesnothurthumanlife. TheUnitedStateshasverygoodelectronicwarfarecapabilitiesbuthasusedthemonlytosupportconventionalmilitaryoperations.Thetechnologyisreachingthepointhoweverwherecyberwarfaremaybedecisiveinitsownright.48Beforeweimaginewhatsucha"cyberwar"scenariomightbelikelet’sbrieflylookathowelectronicwarfaredeveloped. DuringtheCivilWaroperationsconductedbytheUnionarmyagainsttheConfederatetelegraphsystemforetoldmoderntwentieth-centuryelectronicwarfare.UnionoperativespenetratedConfederatelinestotapintoandreadmilitarytrafficontheConfederatetelegraphsystem.49NotonlydidtheseoperationsyieldvaluableintelligenceinformationbutsomeoperatorsevenbegansendingbogusmessagestosowconfusionintheConfederateranks. JustbeforeWorldWarⅠradiocommunicationseemedlikearealboontonavaloperationsbecauseitallowedship-to-shipandship-to-shorecommunicationsespeciallyinbadweather.Beforethistimeflagsorlightblinkerswithlimitedrangeprovidedtheonlymeansofcommunicationbetweenships. Navalshipcaptainshoweverwereawarethatasophisticatedsetofshore-basedequipmentcouldlocateshipsbytheirradiotransmission.Bylisteningtothetransmissionstheenemycouldascertainthenumberandtypeofshipseveniftheycouldnotdecodeactualmessages.ForthisreasontheUSNavywasparticularlyresistanttousingradio.HoweverUSmilitaryobserversaboardBritishwarshipssoonsawthatthetacticaladvantagesofradiooutweighedtheintelligencelosses. ElectronicwarfaregrewrapidlyinWorldWarIIwiththeadventofradar.50Monitoringradarfrequenciesallowedspoofingorjammingofenemyradarandledtomajorunitsandequipmentdevotedsolelytocountermeasuresandcounter-countermeasures.Gatheringintelligencefromradiotransmissionsalsoincreasedgreatly. NotonlydidtheseoperationsyieldvaluableintelligenceinformationbutsomeoperatorsevenbegansendingbogusmessagestosowconfusionintheConfederateranks.
Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter.UseLiMinginstead.Youdonotneedtowriteyouraddress.
Text2 EveryspringmigratingsalmonreturntoBritishColumbia’sriverstospawn.Andeveryspringnewreportsdetailfreshdisastersthatbefallthem.Thisyearisnodifferent.ThefisheriescommitteeofCanada’sHouseofCommonsandaformerchiefjusticeofBritishColumbiaBryanWilliamshavejustexaminedseparatelywhy1.3millionsockeyesalmonmysteriously"disappeared"fromthefamedFraserriverfisheryin2004.TheirconclusionspointtoapoliticallyexplosiveconflictbetweenthesurvivalofsalmonandtherightsofFirstNationsasCanadianscallIndians. In2004onlyabout524000salmonarethoughttohavereturnedtothespawninggroundsbarelymorethanaquarterthenumberwhomadeitfouryearsearlier.Highwatertemperaturesmayhavekilledmany.TheHouseofCommonsalsolambastedthefederalDepartmentofFisheriesandOceansDFOforpoorscientificdataandforfailingtoenforcecatchlevels.Foursimilarreportssince1992havecalledforthedepartment’sreform.Invain:itsseniorofficialsare"indenial"aboutits’failingssaidthecommittee. Mr.Williams’reportaddedamoreshockingtwist.HeconcludedthatillegalfishingontheFraserriveris"rampantandoutofcontrol"with"nogo"zoneswherefisheriesofficersaretoldnottoconfrontIndianpoachersforfearofviolence.ThejudgecomplainedthattheDFOwithheldareportbyoneofitsinvestigatorswhichdetailedextensivepoachingandsaleofsalmonbymembersoftheCheamFirstNationsomeofwhomwerearmed. SomeFirstNationsclaimanunrestrictedrighttofishandselltheircatch.Canada’sconstitutionacknowledgestheaboriginalrighttofishforfoodandforsocialandceremonialneedsbutnotageneralcommercialright.OntheFraserhowevertheDFOhasgrantedIndiansaspecialcommercialfishery.TosomeIndianseventhatisnotenough. BothreportscalledformorefundsfortheDFOtoimprovedatacollectionandenforcement.TheyalsorecommendedreturningtoasinglelegalregimeforcommercialfishingapplyingtoallCanadians. OnApril14thGeoffReganthefederalfisheriesministerrespondedtotwopreviousreportsfromayearago.OnefromaFirstNationsgroupsuggestedgivingnativesarisingshareofthecatch.Theotherproposedanewquotasystemforfishinglicencesandtheconclusionoflong-standingtalksontreatiesincludingfishingrightswithFirstNations.Mr.Regansaidhisdepartmentwouldspendthisyearconsulting"stakeholders"nativescommercialandsportfishermen.ItwillalsolaunchpilotprojectsaimedatimprovingconservationenforcementandFirstNations’accesstofisheries. HowmanysalmonwerethereeveryspringinBritishColumbia'sriversfouryearsearlier
Text1 IfthevariousadvocatesoftheconflictingoptionsareallsmartexperiencedandwellinformedwhydotheydisagreesocompletelyWouldn’ttheyallhavethoughttheissuethroughcarefullyandcometoapproximatelythesame"best"--conclusion Theanswertothatcrucialquestionliesinthestructureofthehumanbrainandthewayitprocessesinformation. Mosthumanbeingsactuallydecidebeforetheythink.Whenanyhumanbeing--executivespecializedexpertorpersoninthestree--encountersacomplexissueandformsanopinionoftenwithinamatterofsecondshowthoroughlyhasheorsheexploredtheimplicationsofthevariouscoursesofactionAnswer:notverythoroughly.Veryfewpeoplenomatterhowintelligentorexperiencedcantakeinventoryofthemanybranchingpossibilitiespossibleoutcomessideeffectsandundesiredconsequencesofapolicyoracourseofactioninamatterofseconds.Yetthosewhopridethemselvesonbeingdecisiveoftentrytodojustthat.Andoncetheirbrainslockontoanopinionmostoftheirthinkingthereafterconsistsoffindingsupportforit. Averyserioussideeffectofargumentativedecisionmakingcanbealackofsupportforthechosencourseofactiononthepartofthe"losing"faction.Whenonefactionwinsthemeetingandtheothersseethemselvesaslosingthebattleoftendoesn’tendwhenthemeetingends.Angerresentmentandjealousymayleadthemtosabotagethedecisionlaterortoreopenthedebateatlatermeetings. Thereisabetterway.AsphilosopherAldousHuxleysaid"Itisn’twhoisrightbutwhatisrightthatcounts."Thestructured-inquirymethodoffersabetteralternativetoargumentativedecisionmakingbydebate.WiththehelpoftheInternetandwirelesscomputertechnologythegapbetweenexpertsandexecutivesisnowbeingdramaticallyclosed.Byactuallyputtingthebrakesonthethinkingprocessslowingitdownandorganizingtheflowoflogicit’spossibletocreatealevelofclaritythatsheerargumentationcannevermatch. Thestructured-inquiryprocessintroducesalevelofconceptualclaritybyorganizingthecontributionsoftheexpertsthenbringstheexpertsandthedecisionmakersclosertogether.Althoughitisn’tpossibleornecessaryforapresidentorprimeministertolisteninoneveryintelligenceanalysismeetingit’spossibletoorganizetheexperts’informationtogivethedecisionmakermuchgreaterinsightastoitsmeaning.Thisprocessmaysomewhatresembleamarketingfocusgroup;it’sasimpleremarkablycleverwaytobringdecisionmakersclosertothesourceoftheexpertinformationandopinionsonwhichtheymustbasetheirdecisions. Accordingtotheauthorthefunctionofthestructured-inquirymethodis
Electronicor"cyber"warfareholdsthepromiseofdestroyinganarmy’sorevenawholenation’s--abilitytofunctionwithouthurtinghumanlife.Thetechnologyisreachingthepointhoweverwherecyberwarfaremaybedecisiveinitsownright.46Inhighlycentralizedmilitaryoperationscommunicationsanddatamanagementhavebecomeessentialtoolslinkingindividualsmallunitsandthecentralcommandstructure. Theneutronbombisoneofthemosthorridweaponseverdevised:Itdoesn’tdamageproperty;itonlykillshigherlife-forms.47Wouldn’ttheoppositebewonderfuladeviceliketherobot’srayinTheDaytheEarthStoodStillwhichmeltsdownweaponsbutnotsoldiersElectronicor"cyber"warfare--hackingintoanenemy’scomputersjammingradiotransmissionsandthelike--holdsthatpromise.Itcandestroyanarmy’s--orevenawholenation’s--abilitytofunctionbutdoesnothurthumanlife. TheUnitedStateshasverygoodelectronicwarfarecapabilitiesbuthasusedthemonlytosupportconventionalmilitaryoperations.Thetechnologyisreachingthepointhoweverwherecyberwarfaremaybedecisiveinitsownright.48Beforeweimaginewhatsucha"cyberwar"scenariomightbelikelet’sbrieflylookathowelectronicwarfaredeveloped. DuringtheCivilWaroperationsconductedbytheUnionarmyagainsttheConfederatetelegraphsystemforetoldmoderntwentieth-centuryelectronicwarfare.UnionoperativespenetratedConfederatelinestotapintoandreadmilitarytrafficontheConfederatetelegraphsystem.49NotonlydidtheseoperationsyieldvaluableintelligenceinformationbutsomeoperatorsevenbegansendingbogusmessagestosowconfusionintheConfederateranks. JustbeforeWorldWarⅠradiocommunicationseemedlikearealboontonavaloperationsbecauseitallowedship-to-shipandship-to-shorecommunicationsespeciallyinbadweather.Beforethistimeflagsorlightblinkerswithlimitedrangeprovidedtheonlymeansofcommunicationbetweenships. Navalshipcaptainshoweverwereawarethatasophisticatedsetofshore-basedequipmentcouldlocateshipsbytheirradiotransmission.Bylisteningtothetransmissionstheenemycouldascertainthenumberandtypeofshipseveniftheycouldnotdecodeactualmessages.ForthisreasontheUSNavywasparticularlyresistanttousingradio.HoweverUSmilitaryobserversaboardBritishwarshipssoonsawthatthetacticaladvantagesofradiooutweighedtheintelligencelosses. ElectronicwarfaregrewrapidlyinWorldWarIIwiththeadventofradar.50Monitoringradarfrequenciesallowedspoofingorjammingofenemyradarandledtomajorunitsandequipmentdevotedsolelytocountermeasuresandcounter-countermeasures.Gatheringintelligencefromradiotransmissionsalsoincreasedgreatly. Wouldn’ttheoppositebewonderfuladeviceliketherobot’srayinTheDaytheEarthStoodStillwhichmeltsdownweaponsbutnotsoldiers
Text1 Pricesareskyhighwithprofitstomatch.Butlookingfurtheraheadtheindustryfaceswrenchingchangesaysanexpertofenergy. "Thetimewhenwecouldcountoncheapoilandevencheapernaturalgasisclearlyending.ThatwasthegloomyforecastdeliveredinFebruarybyDaveO’ReillythechairmanofChevronTexacotohundredsofoilmengatheredforaconferenceinHouston.ThefollowingmonthVenezuela’sPresidentHugoChavezgleefullyechoedthesentiment:"Theworldshouldforgetaboutcheapoil." Thesurgeinoilpricesfrom＄10abarrelin1998toabove＄50inearly2005haspromptedtalkofaneweraofsustainedhigherprices.Butwhenevera"newera"inoilishailedscepticismisinorder.Afterallthisisessentiallyacyclicalbusinessinwhichpriceshabituallyyo-yo.EvensoanunusuallyloudchorusisnowjoiningMessrsO’ReillyandChavezpointingtointriguingevidenceofanew"pricefloor"of＄30orperhapseven＄40.Confusinglythoughtherearealsosignsthathighoilpricesmaybecausedbyaspeculativebubblethatcouldburstquitesuddenly.Toseewhichcampisrighttwoquestionsneedanswering:whydidtheoilpricesoarAndwhatcouldkeepithigh Tomakemattersmorecomplicatedthereisinfactnosuchthingasasingle"oilprice":rathertherearedozensofvarietiesofcrudetradingatdifferentprices.Whennewspaperswriteaboutoilpricestheyusuallymeanoneoftworeferencecrudes:BrentfromtheNorthSeaorWestTexasIntermediateWTI.ButwhenministersfromtheOrganisationofthePetroleumExportingCountriesOPECdiscusspricestheyusuallyrefertoabasketofheaviercartelcrudeswhichtradeatadiscounttoWTIandBrent.AlloilpricesmentionedinthissurveyareperbarrelofWTI. Therecentvolatilityinpricesisonlyoneofseveralchallengesfacingtheoilindustry.AlthoughatfirstsightBigOilseemstobeinrudehealthpostingrecordprofitsthissurveywillarguethatthewesternoilmajorswillhavetheirworkcutouttocopewiththeriseofresourcenationalismwhichthreatenstochokeoffaccesstonewoilreserves.Thisisessentialtoreplacetheirexistingreserveswhicharerapidlydeclining.Theywillalsohavetorespondtoeffortsbygovernmentstodealwithoil’sseriousenvironmentalandgeopoliticalside-effects.Togetherthesechallengescouldyetwipeouttheoilmajors. Whatisthetoneofthepassage
Text3 Asia’srealboat-rockerisagrowingChinanotJapanaseniorAmericaneconomistobserved. Thereissomuchnoisesurroundingandemanatingfromtheworld’smiracleeconomythatitisbecomingcacophonous.InWashingtonD.C.thelatestideaisthatChinaisbecomingtoosuccessfulperhapsevendangerouslyso:whileCapitolHillresoundswithcomplaintsoftradesurplusesandcurrencymanipulationthePentagonandsundrythink-tanksechotoanewdrumbeatofanalystsworryingaboutChina’s12.6%annualriseinmilitaryspendingandaboutwhetheritmightsoonhavetheabilitytotakepreemptivemilitaryactiontoforceTaiwantorejoinit.Soitmaybenocoincidencethatfor threeconsecutiveweekendsthestreetsofbigChinesecitieshavebeenfilledwiththesoundsofdemonstratorsmarchingandrocksbeingthrownallseekingtosendadifferentmessage:thatJapanistheprobleminAsianotChinabecauseofitswantonfailuretofaceuptoitshistory;andthatbycosyinguptoJapaninsecuritymattersAmericaisallyingwithAsia’spariah. Deafnessisnottheonlyriskfromallthisnoise.ThepressuretowardsprotectionisminWashingtonisstrongandcouldputinfurtherdangernotonlytradewithChinabutalsothewiderclimatefortradeliberalisationintheDoharoundoftheWorldTradeOrganisationWTO.SofarwordshavebeenthemainweaponsusedbetweenChinaandJapanbutthereisachancethatnationalismineitherorbothcountriescouldleadthegovernmentstostrikeconfrontationalposesovertheirterritorialdisputesintheseasthatdividethemeveninvolvingtheirnavies.AndthemorethatnationalistpositionsbecomeentrenchedinbothcountriesbutespeciallyChinathemorethatstreetprotestscouldbecomestirredupperhapstowardsmoreviolence. Alltheseissuesarecomplexonesandasisoftenthecaseintradeandinhistoricaldisputesfindingsolutionsislikelytobefarfromsimple.ArevaluationoftheyuanasdemandedinCongresswouldnotrebalancetradebetweenAmericaandChinathoughitmighthelpalittleinduecourse.A"sincere"apologybyJapanforitswartimeatrocitiesmightalsohelpalittlebutitwouldnotsuddenlyturnAsia’snaturalgreat-powerrivalsintobosombuddies.Forbehindallthenoiseliesonebigfact:thatitistheriseofChinanotthestatusorconductofJapanthatposesAsia’sthorniestquestions. WhatisthereasonforthedemonstrationsinthestreetsofbigChinesecities
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCandDonANSWERSHEET1.9
Text2 ThehotelsarelullJapanesetouriststhrongthedesignerstoresofWaikikiandtheunemploymentrateisamere3%oftheworkforce.SowhatcouldpossiblyknockHawaiithe"aloha"or"welcome”stateoffitswaveTheansweristhatHawaii’s1.2mresidentsmayonedaygetfedupwithplayinghosttooverseasvisitors7mofthemthisyear. Indeedsomeresidentsarealreadyfedup.KAHEAanallianceofenvironmentalistsanddefendersofnativeHawaiianculturebemoansthepollutioncausedbythecruiseshipsandtheriskposedbythetouristhordestocreaturessuchasthedark-rumpedpetrelandtheOahutreesnailortoplantsliketheMarsileavillosafern.KAHEAhasapoint:theUSFish＆WildlifeServicecurrentlylistssome317speciesincluding273plantsintheHawaiianislandsasthreatenedorendangeredthehighestnumberofanystateinthenation.Eventhestateflowerthehibiscusbrackenridgeiisonthedangerlist.Thelossofspeciessaysonegovernmentreporthasbeen"staggering".AsfortheimpactoftourismOnHawaiiancultureaKAHEAspokeswomanwrylynotestheelementofexploitation:"NativeHawaiiancultureisusedasasellingpoint--cometothisparadisewherebeautifulwomenaredoingthehulaonyourdinnerplate." SowhatelseisnewHawaii’senvironmentandculturehavebeenunderthreateversinceCaptainCookandhisgerm-carryingsailorsdroppedanchorin1778.Foreignimportshaveinevitablyhadanimpactonspeciesthatevolvedoverthemillenniainisolation.Moreoverwithupto25nonnativespeciesarrivingeachyeartheimpactwillcontinue.ButastheUSGeologicalSurveyarguestheimpactcanaddtobiodiversityaswellaslessenit.TherealchallengethereforeisforHawaiitofindabalancebetweenthecostsandthebenefitsofdevelopmentingeneralandtourisminparticular. TheBenefitsarenottobesneezedat.Thestate’sunemploymentratehasbeenbelowthenationalaverageforthepasttwoand-a-halfyears.EconomistsattheUniversityofHawaiireckonthatHawaiians’realpersonalincomeroseby2.8%lastyearwillriseby2.7%thisyearandwillcontinuethrough2007at2.5%.Accordingtothestate’s"strategicplan"forthenextdecadetourismshouldtakemuchofthecreditaccountingdirectlyandindirectlyforsome22%ofthestate’sjobsby2007morethan17%ofitseconomicoutputandaround26%ofitstaxrevenues. Thetroubleisthatthecostscanbehightoo.Asoneeconomistputsit"WehaveaManhattancostoflivingandPeoriawagerates."ThattranslatesintoamedianhousepricetodayontheislandofOahuhometothree-quartersofthestate’spopulationof＄500000andaneedformanyworkerstotakeonmorethanonejob. AccordingtothepassageallthesefollowingareproblemsresultingfromthetourismEXCEPT
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCandDonANSWERSHEET1.15
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCandDonANSWERSHEET1.1
Everynowandthenastudycomesalongwhosechiefinterestliesinhowpeculiarlyaskewitsfindingsseemtobefromthecommonperceptionofthings.Sometimesofcoursethe"surprisingnewstudy"itselfturnsouttobeoffinsomeway.Butifthedataarefundamentallysoundthenwhatyoureallywanttoknowiswhysensiblepeopleholdsuchacontraryview. 41______.Researcherstookacloserlookatanearlierstudythathadbeenwidelyinterpretedwhenitwasfirstpublishedin2000asproofthatthehomeworkmonsterwasgrowingandinsatiable.ATimemagazinecoverarticlespawnedamini-genreoftrendstoriesallpeopledbypaleexhaustedkidsandbewilderedboomerparentswhoseownhomeworkmemoriesseemedtoencompassonlyfeltpuppetsandshoe-boxdioramas.Butthenewreportpointsoutthatwhiletheamountoftimeschool-children12andunderdevotedtostudyathomedidindeedgrowbetween1981and1997theincreasewassmall:anaverageof23minutesperweek.42______. SowhydosomanyparentsseemtothinkotherwiseOneansweristhattherealincreaseinhomeworkthathasbeendocumentedisamongyoungerchildren.In1981forinstanceonethirdof6to8-year-oldshadsomehomework;one-halfdidinthelate90’s.43______.Andsincechildren6to8aretheonesweparticularlyliketothinkofasengagedinunstructuredplayweimaginethemridingbikesinthehoneyedlightofwaningafternoonsevenwhenwhattheymightwellbedoingintheabsenceofhomeworkiswatchingTVhomeworkforthemseemslikeoneofthoseheavyhandedincursionsonthefreedomofchildhood. 44______.Thesechildrengotoeliteprivateschoolsortodemandingpubliconeswherethecompetitivepressuresaresuchthattheyeitherreallydohavehoursofhomeworkeachnightortakehoursfinishingitbecausetheyortheirparentsaresoanxiousthatitbedonewell.Theycomefromthedemographicthatmakesaculturalalmostamoralidealofenrollingchildreninsoccerandoboelessonsandkarateandballetandsotheirtimereallyisatapremium.45______. [A]Moreover20percentfewerchildrenbetweentheagesof9and12weredoinghomeworkatallin1997thanin1981.Andhigh-schoolstudentsspentnomoretimeonhomeworkthantheydidinpreviousdecades. [B]ThatiscertainlythequestionraisedbyaBrookingsInstitutionreportreleasedlastmonthshowingthattheamountoftimekidsdevotetohomeworkhasnotinfactsignificantlyincreasedoverthelasttwodecades. [C]Behindtheseemingcontradictionsofsteadyhomeworklevelsandtheantihomeworkbacklashinotherwordsistherealityofsocialclass. [D]Theyarelikelytohavebusyprofessionalparentsoversubscribedthemselvesbutwithaninvestmentinseeingtheirchildrenproducebookreportsofakindthatteacherscounselorsandintimecollegeadmissionsboardswillfindimpressive. [E]Anti-homeworkcrusadesarenotnewin1901forexampleCaliforniapassedalawabolishinghomeworkforgradesonethrougheightbuttheyhaveusuallybeenledbythesamekindsofpeoplewhichistosayelites. [F]Sinceparentsaremorelikelytohavetosuperviseafirstorsecondgraderdoinghomeworkthananolderchildtheearlierlaunchingofahomeworkregimenmightfeellikeadisproportionateincreaseintheparentalworkload. [G]ButthebiggeranswerIsuspectisthattheparentswetendtohearfrominthepressatschool-boardmeetingsandinInternetchatgroupstheparentswithelaborateddevelopmentallysavvycritiquesofstandardsandcurriculumsareparentswhosechildrenreallyareexperiencingatimecrunch. 43
Text4 IthasbeenawretchedfewweeksforAmerica’scelebritybosses.AIG’sMauriceGreenberghasbeendramaticallyoustedfromthefirmthroughwhichhedominatedglobalinsurancefordecades.AtMorganStanleyamutinyisforcingPhilipPurcellabossusedtogettinghisownwayintoanincreasinglydesperatecampaigntosavehisskin.AtBoeingHarryStonecipherwascalledoutofretirementtoleadthescandal-hitfirmandraiseethicalstandardsonlytocommitalapseofhisownbeingsackedforsendinge-mailstoaloverwhowasalsoanemployee.CarlyFiorinawasthemostpowerfulwomanincorporateAmericauntilafewweeksagowhenHewlett-PackardHPsackedherforpoorperformance.ThefateofBernieEbbersismuchgrimmer.Theoncehigh-profilebossofWorldComcouldwellspendtherestofhislifebehindbarsfollowinghisconvictionlastmonthonfraudcharges. Indifferentwayseachoftheseexamplesappearstopointtothesamewelcomeconclusion:thattheimbalanceincorporatepowerofthelate1990swhenmanybosseswereallowedtobehavelikeabsolutemonarchshasbeencorrected.Alasappearancescanbedeceptive.Whileeachoftheserecenttalesofchief-executivewoeisasignofprogressnoneprovidesmuchevidencethatthecrisisinAmericancorporategovernanceisyetover.Infacteachofthesecasesisanexampleoffailednotsuccessfulgovernance. AttheveryleasttheboardsofbothMorganStanleyandHPwerefartooslowtoaddresstheirbosses’inadequacies.TherecordoftheBoeingboardinpickingchiefspronetoethicallapsesistoolongtobedismissedasmerebadluck.ThefallofMessrsGreenbergandEbbersmeanwhilehighlightsthegrowingroleofgovernment--andinparticularofcriminalprosecutorsinholdingbossestoaccount:adevelopmentthatisatbestamixedblessing.TheSarbanes-OxleyactpassedinhastefollowingtheEnronandWorldComscandalsisimposingheavycostsonAmericancompanies;whethertheseareexceededbyanybenefitsisthesubjectoffiercedebateandmaynotbeknownforyears. EliotSpitzerNewYork’sattorney-generalistheleadingadvocateandpractitionerofanenergetic"lawenforcement"approach.Hemayberightthattherecentburstofpunitiveactionshasbeengoodfortheeconomyevenifsomeofhisowndecisionshavebeenopentoquestion.WhereheisundoubtedlyrightisinarguingthatcorporateAmericahasdonealamentablejobofgoverningitself.AshesaysinanarticleintheWallStreetJournalthisweek"ThehonourcodeamongCEOsdidn’twork.Boardoversightdidn’twork.Self-regulationwasacompletefailure."AIG’sboardforexampledidnothingaboutMr.Greenberg’suseofmurkyaccountingortheconflictsposedbyhisuseofoffshorevehiclesorhisconstantbullyingofhiscriticsletalonethefirm’sallegedparticipationinbidrigging--untilMr.Spitzerthreatenedacriminalprosecutionthatmighthavedestroyedthefirm. HowmanyAmerica'scelebritybossesarementionedinthefirstparagraph
Text4 IthasbeenawretchedfewweeksforAmerica’scelebritybosses.AIG’sMauriceGreenberghasbeendramaticallyoustedfromthefirmthroughwhichhedominatedglobalinsurancefordecades.AtMorganStanleyamutinyisforcingPhilipPurcellabossusedtogettinghisownwayintoanincreasinglydesperatecampaigntosavehisskin.AtBoeingHarryStonecipherwascalledoutofretirementtoleadthescandal-hitfirmandraiseethicalstandardsonlytocommitalapseofhisownbeingsackedforsendinge-mailstoaloverwhowasalsoanemployee.CarlyFiorinawasthemostpowerfulwomanincorporateAmericauntilafewweeksagowhenHewlett-PackardHPsackedherforpoorperformance.ThefateofBernieEbbersismuchgrimmer.Theoncehigh-profilebossofWorldComcouldwellspendtherestofhislifebehindbarsfollowinghisconvictionlastmonthonfraudcharges. Indifferentwayseachoftheseexamplesappearstopointtothesamewelcomeconclusion:thattheimbalanceincorporatepowerofthelate1990swhenmanybosseswereallowedtobehavelikeabsolutemonarchshasbeencorrected.Alasappearancescanbedeceptive.Whileeachoftheserecenttalesofchief-executivewoeisasignofprogressnoneprovidesmuchevidencethatthecrisisinAmericancorporategovernanceisyetover.Infacteachofthesecasesisanexampleoffailednotsuccessfulgovernance. AttheveryleasttheboardsofbothMorganStanleyandHPwerefartooslowtoaddresstheirbosses’inadequacies.TherecordoftheBoeingboardinpickingchiefspronetoethicallapsesistoolongtobedismissedasmerebadluck.ThefallofMessrsGreenbergandEbbersmeanwhilehighlightsthegrowingroleofgovernment--andinparticularofcriminalprosecutorsinholdingbossestoaccount:adevelopmentthatisatbestamixedblessing.TheSarbanes-OxleyactpassedinhastefollowingtheEnronandWorldComscandalsisimposingheavycostsonAmericancompanies;whethertheseareexceededbyanybenefitsisthesubjectoffiercedebateandmaynotbeknownforyears. EliotSpitzerNewYork’sattorney-generalistheleadingadvocateandpractitionerofanenergetic"lawenforcement"approach.Hemayberightthattherecentburstofpunitiveactionshasbeengoodfortheeconomyevenifsomeofhisowndecisionshavebeenopentoquestion.WhereheisundoubtedlyrightisinarguingthatcorporateAmericahasdonealamentablejobofgoverningitself.AshesaysinanarticleintheWallStreetJournalthisweek"ThehonourcodeamongCEOsdidn’twork.Boardoversightdidn’twork.Self-regulationwasacompletefailure."AIG’sboardforexampledidnothingaboutMr.Greenberg’suseofmurkyaccountingortheconflictsposedbyhisuseofoffshorevehiclesorhisconstantbullyingofhiscriticsletalonethefirm’sallegedparticipationinbidrigging--untilMr.Spitzerthreatenedacriminalprosecutionthatmighthavedestroyedthefirm. Whatisthemainideaofthepassage
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCandDonANSWERSHEET1.7
Everynowandthenastudycomesalongwhosechiefinterestliesinhowpeculiarlyaskewitsfindingsseemtobefromthecommonperceptionofthings.Sometimesofcoursethe"surprisingnewstudy"itselfturnsouttobeoffinsomeway.Butifthedataarefundamentallysoundthenwhatyoureallywanttoknowiswhysensiblepeopleholdsuchacontraryview. 41______.Researcherstookacloserlookatanearlierstudythathadbeenwidelyinterpretedwhenitwasfirstpublishedin2000asproofthatthehomeworkmonsterwasgrowingandinsatiable.ATimemagazinecoverarticlespawnedamini-genreoftrendstoriesallpeopledbypaleexhaustedkidsandbewilderedboomerparentswhoseownhomeworkmemoriesseemedtoencompassonlyfeltpuppetsandshoe-boxdioramas.Butthenewreportpointsoutthatwhiletheamountoftimeschool-children12andunderdevotedtostudyathomedidindeedgrowbetween1981and1997theincreasewassmall:anaverageof23minutesperweek.42______. SowhydosomanyparentsseemtothinkotherwiseOneansweristhattherealincreaseinhomeworkthathasbeendocumentedisamongyoungerchildren.In1981forinstanceonethirdof6to8-year-oldshadsomehomework;one-halfdidinthelate90’s.43______.Andsincechildren6to8aretheonesweparticularlyliketothinkofasengagedinunstructuredplayweimaginethemridingbikesinthehoneyedlightofwaningafternoonsevenwhenwhattheymightwellbedoingintheabsenceofhomeworkiswatchingTVhomeworkforthemseemslikeoneofthoseheavyhandedincursionsonthefreedomofchildhood. 44______.Thesechildrengotoeliteprivateschoolsortodemandingpubliconeswherethecompetitivepressuresaresuchthattheyeitherreallydohavehoursofhomeworkeachnightortakehoursfinishingitbecausetheyortheirparentsaresoanxiousthatitbedonewell.Theycomefromthedemographicthatmakesaculturalalmostamoralidealofenrollingchildreninsoccerandoboelessonsandkarateandballetandsotheirtimereallyisatapremium.45______. [A]Moreover20percentfewerchildrenbetweentheagesof9and12weredoinghomeworkatallin1997thanin1981.Andhigh-schoolstudentsspentnomoretimeonhomeworkthantheydidinpreviousdecades. [B]ThatiscertainlythequestionraisedbyaBrookingsInstitutionreportreleasedlastmonthshowingthattheamountoftimekidsdevotetohomeworkhasnotinfactsignificantlyincreasedoverthelasttwodecades. [C]Behindtheseemingcontradictionsofsteadyhomeworklevelsandtheantihomeworkbacklashinotherwordsistherealityofsocialclass. [D]Theyarelikelytohavebusyprofessionalparentsoversubscribedthemselvesbutwithaninvestmentinseeingtheirchildrenproducebookreportsofakindthatteacherscounselorsandintimecollegeadmissionsboardswillfindimpressive. [E]Anti-homeworkcrusadesarenotnewin1901forexampleCaliforniapassedalawabolishinghomeworkforgradesonethrougheightbuttheyhaveusuallybeenledbythesamekindsofpeoplewhichistosayelites. [F]Sinceparentsaremorelikelytohavetosuperviseafirstorsecondgraderdoinghomeworkthananolderchildtheearlierlaunchingofahomeworkregimenmightfeellikeadisproportionateincreaseintheparentalworkload. [G]ButthebiggeranswerIsuspectisthattheparentswetendtohearfrominthepressatschool-boardmeetingsandinInternetchatgroupstheparentswithelaborateddevelopmentallysavvycritiquesofstandardsandcurriculumsareparentswhosechildrenreallyareexperiencingatimecrunch. 41
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