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临床上少见的黄疸是
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Ineconomicsthevalueaddedbyamanufacturingfirmtoitsproductsisthedifferencebetweenthepriceofafinishedproductandthecostofrawmaterialspartssuppliesfuelandelectricalenergyusedintheproductionofthatproduct.When1inthismannerthevalueaddedbymanufactureisausefulindexofthemanufacturingfirm’’s2tothenationaleconomy.Itisamore3indexofcoursethan4salesafigurethatismisleadingbecauseittells5aboutproductioncostsand6themanufacturingfirmis7ataprofitorataloss. Ineducationthereisnowaspirited8astowhethersuchaconceptwouldnotbemost9forcollegegraduatesisevidently10inthesalariestheycancommand11receiptofacollegedegree.Engineersaccountantsandcomputerspecialistscommand12salariesupongraduationandbyimplicationtheremustbean13valueaddedtotheirmarketability14theeducationandtrainingthey15incollege.Whenlookedatmoreclosely16themissingfactoris17thedifferencebetweenlearnercapabilities18totheireducationalexperiencesandgraduatecapabilitiesafter19acollegedegree.Inbriefhowmuchdoesthestudent20fromtheinstructionheorshehasreceived
WhataccountsforthegreatoutburstofmajorinventionsinearlyAmerica―breakthroughssuchasthetelegraphthesteamboatandtheweavingmachine AmongthemanyshapingfactorsIwouldsingleoutthecountry’’sexcellentelementaryschools;alaborforcethatwelcomedthenewtechnology;thepracticeofgivingpremiumstoinventors;andabovealltheAmericangeniusfornonverbalspatialthinkingaboutthingstechnological. WhymentiontheelementaryschoolsBecausethankstotheseschoolsourearlymechanicespeciallyintheNewEnglandandMiddleAtlanticstatesweregenerallyliterateandathomeinarithmeticandinsomeaspectsofgeometryandtrigonometry. AcuteforeignobserversrelatedAmericanadaptivenessandinventivenesstothiseducationaladvantage.AsamemberofaBritishcommissionvisitingherein1853reportedWithamindpreparedbythoroughschooldisciplinetheAmericanboydevelopsrapidlyintotheskilledworkman. Afurtherstimulustoinventioncamefromthepremiumsystemwhichprecededourpatentsystemandforyearsranparallelwithit.Thisapproachoriginatedabroadofferedinventorsmedalscashprizesandotherincentives. IntheUnitedStatesmultitudesofpremiumsfornewdeviceswereawardedatcountryfairsandattheindustrialfairsinmajorcities.Americansflockedtothesefairstoadmirethenewmachinesandthustorenewtheirfaithinthebeneficenceoftechnologicaladvance. GiventhisoptimisticapproachtotechnologicalinnovationtheAmericanworkertookreadilytothatspecialkindofnonverbalthinkingrequiredinmechanicaltechnology.AsEugeneFergusonhaspointedoutAtechnologistthinksaboutobjectsthatcannotbereducedtounambiguousverbaldescriptions;theyaredealtwithinhismindbyavisualnonverbalprocess...Thedesignerandtheinventor...areabletoassembleandmanipulateintheirmindsdevicesthatasyetdonotexist. Thisnonverbalspatialthinkingcanbejustascreativeaspaintingandwriting.RobertFultononcewroteThemechanicshouldsitdownamongleversscrewswedgeswheelsetc.likeapoetamongthelettersofthealphabetconsideringthemasanexhibitionofhisthoughtsinwhichanewarrangementtransmitsanewidea. Whenalltheseshapingforces―schoolsopenattitudesthepremiumsystemageniusforspatialthinking―interactedwithoneanotherontherichU.S.mainlandtheyproducedthatAmericancharacteristicemulation.Todaythatwordimpliesmereimitation.Butinearliertimesitmeantafriendlybutcompetitivestrivingforfameandexcellence. ItisimpliedthatadaptivenessandinventivenessoftheearlyAmericanmechanics_________________.
Wehavetorealisehowoldhowveryoldweare.Nationsareclassifiedasagedwhentheyhave7percentormoreoftheirpeopleaged65oraboveandbyabout1970everyoneoftheadvancedcountrieshadbecomelikethis.Ofthereallyancientsocietieswithover13percentabove65allareinNorthwesternEurope.Weknowthatwearegettingevenolderandthatthenearerasocietyapproximatestozeropopulationgrowththeolderitspopulationislikelytobe--atleastforanyfuturethatconcernsusnow. Tothesenowfamiliarfactsanumberoffurtherfactsmaybeaddedsomeofthemonlyrecentlyrecognised.Thereistheapparentparadoxthattheeffectivecauseofthehighproportionoftheoldisbirthsratherthandeaths.Thereistheeconomicprinciplethatthedependencyratio--thedegreetowhichthosewhocannotearndependforalivingonthosewhocan--ismoreadvantageousinoldersocietieslikeoursthanintheyoungersocietiesofthedevelopingworldbecauselotsofdependentbabiesaremoreofaliabilitythannumbersoftheinactiveaged.Thereistheappreciationofthehistoricaltruththattheagingofadvancedsocietieshasbeenasuddenchange. IfrevolutionisarapidresettlementofthesocialstructureandiftheagecompositionofthesocietycountsasaveryimportantaspectofthatsocialstructurethentherehasbeenasocialrevolutioninEuropeanandparticularlyWesternEuropeansocietywithinthelifetimeofeveryoneover50.Takentogetherthesethingshaveimplicationswhichareonlybeginningtobeacknowledged.ThesefactsandcircumstanceshadaleadingpositionataworldgatheringaboutagingasachallengetoscienceandtopolicyheldatVichyinFrance. ThereisoftenresistancetotheideathatitisbecausethebirthratefellearlierinWesternandNorthwesternEuropethanelsewhereratherthanbecauseofanychangeinthedeathratethatwehavegrownsoold.Longlifeisalteringoursocietyofcoursebutinexperientialterms.Wehaveamongusaverymuchgreaterexperienceofcontinuedlivingthananysocietythathaseverprecededusanywhereandthiswillcontinue.ButtoomuchofthatlengthenedexperienceeveninthewealthyWestwillbeexperienceofpovertyandneglectunlesswedosomethingaboutit. Ifyouareinyourthirtiesyououghttobeawarethatyoucanexpecttolivenearlyonethirdoftherestofyourlifeaftertheageof60.Theolderyouarenowofcoursethegreaterthisproportionwillbeandgreaterstillifyouareawoman. Theauthorarguesthatthemaincauseofagedsocietiesis
Halftheworld’’spopulationwillbespeakingorlearningEnglishby2015researcherssay.TwobillionpeopleareexpectedtostartlearningEnglishwithinadecadeandthreebillionwillspeakitsaysaBritishCouncilestimate. OtherlanguagessuchasFrenchriskbecomingthecasualtiesofthislinguisticglobalization.Buttheboomwillbeoverby2050andtheEnglish-languageteachingindustrywillhavebecomeavictimofitsownsuccesssaysDavidGraddolauthorofthereportTheFutureofEnglish. Mr.Graddol’’sresearchwasbasedonacomputermodeldevelopedtoestimatedemandforEnglish-languageteachingaroundtheworld.ThelecturerwhohasworkedineducationandlanguagestudiesattheOpenUniversityforthepast25yearssaidthemodelchartedlikelystudentnumbersthroughto2050. ItwascompiledbylookingatvariousestimatesfromtheUnitedNationsEducationScientificandCulturalOrganizationUnescooneducationprovisiondemographicprojectionsgovernmenteducationpoliciesandinternationalstudentmobilityfigures.TheimpactofeducationalinnovationsandotherdevelopmentsaffectingtheworldpopulationincludingtheChinesegovernment’’spolicyofonebabyperfamilywerealsofactoredin. BasedonitsfindingsMr.GraddolhaspredictedthattheworldisabouttobehitbyatidalwaveofEnglish.ManygovernmentsespeciallyincountrieswhichhaverelativelyrecentlygainedindependenceareintroducingtheteachingofEnglishunderautilitarianbanner. ButEnglishpredominatesinthebusinessworldandforsuchcountriestobeabletocompeteforworkincludinglucrativeprofitableoutsourcingcontractsEnglishisbeingpushedheavilyfromkindergartenon. ThepotentialbonanzasourceofwealthonofferfromoutsourcingmeansevenmathsandsciencearebeingtaughtinEnglishatsecondaryschoolsinMalaysia.ButdemandforEnglishteachingwoulddropaschildrenprogressthroughacademiaandmoreuniversitiesacrosstheworldchoosetoteachinthelanguage. Mr.Graddolalsoestimatedthattheboomwouldbeoverby2050.English-languagestudentswillbedownfromtwobillionto500millionthenhesaidIncreasinglyasEnglishspreadacrosstheglobemorepeoplewillbecomebilingualevenmulti-lingualandsuchskillsarehighlyprizedinbusiness.ButBritainhasnotgotthebestreputationforlearningotherlanguages. ThereportalsoshowedthatEnglishwasnottheonlylanguagespreadingandtheworldfarfrombeingdominatedbyEnglishwastobecomemoremulti-lingual.Mr.GraddolsaidChineseArabicandSpanishareallpopularandlikelytobelanguagesofthefuture. ItisestimatedthatinadecadeEnglishwillbe
Thereismuchdiscussionintheliteraturethesedaysabouthowonedefinessustainabilitysustainabledevelopmentandrelatedconcepts.Manyarguethattheconceptisuselessbecauseitcannotbeadequatelydefined.46Mostofthisdiscussionismisdirectedbecauseitattemptstocasttheproblemasdefinitionalwheninfactitisaproblemofpredictionanditfailstotakeintoaccountthemanytimeandspacescalesoverwhichtheconceptofsustainabilitymustapply.Definingsustainabilityisactuallyquiteeasy:Asustainablesystemisonethatsurvivesforsomespecifiedfinitetime.Theproblemisthatoneknowsonehasasustainablesystemonlyafterthefact.Thuswhatusuallypassfordefinitionsofsustainabilityareactuallypredictionsofwhatsetofconditionswillactuallyleadtoasustainablesystem. 47Forexamplekeepingharvestratesofpotentiallyrenewableresourcessuchastreesandwildlifebelowratesofnaturalrenewalshouldonecouldargueleadtoasustainablenaturalresourceextractionsystem.Butthatisapredictionnotadefinition.Usuallythereissomuchuncertaintyinourabilitytoestimatenaturalratesofrenewalandourabilitytoobserveandregulateharvestratesthatasimplepredictionsuchasthisisalwayshighlysuspect. Likewisesustainableeconomicdevelopmentcanbeobservedonlyafterthefact.48Mostdefinitionsofsustainabledevelopmentincludeelementsofasustainablescaleoftheeconomyrelativetoitsecologicallifesupportsystem;afairdistributionofresourcesandopportunitiesbetweencurrentandfuturegenerationsaswellasbetweenindividualsinthecurrentgeneration;andanefficientallocationofresourcesthatadequatelyaccountsfornaturalcapital.Notethatthesethreecomponentsofsustainableeconomicdevelopmentareactuallypredictorsofsustainabilityandnotreallyelementsofadefinition.Likeallpredictionstheyareuncertainandaresubjecttomuchdiscussionanddisagreement. 49Thesecondproblemisthatwhenonesaysasystemhasachievedsustainabilityonedoesnotmeananinfinitelifespanbutratheralifespanthatisconsistentwiththesystem’’sexpectedtimeandspacescale.Weexpectanorganismtohavealongerlifespanthespeciestohaveanevenlongerlifespanandtheplanettolastmuchlonger.Butnosystemisexpectedtohaveaninfinitelifespan. Therealproblemsarenotsomuchdefiningthegoalaspredictingwhatpolicieswillleadtoitsachievement.Herethereisampleroomforandneedofvigorousdiscussiondebateanalysisandmodelinginordertodeterminewhichpolicieshavethebestchanceofachievingthegoalofsustainability.50Giventhehugeuncertaintiesinvolveditisofparticularimportanceinthisregardtoselectpoliciesthatareprecautionarythatistheydonottakeunnecessaryrisksthatcoulddecreasethechancesforsustainabilitytheydonotrelyonhoped-fortechnologicalfixesfortheirsuccesses.
Ineconomicsthevalueaddedbyamanufacturingfirmtoitsproductsisthedifferencebetweenthepriceofafinishedproductandthecostofrawmaterialspartssuppliesfuelandelectricalenergyusedintheproductionofthatproduct.When1inthismannerthevalueaddedbymanufactureisausefulindexofthemanufacturingfirm’’s2tothenationaleconomy.Itisamore3indexofcoursethan4salesafigurethatismisleadingbecauseittells5aboutproductioncostsand6themanufacturingfirmis7ataprofitorataloss. Ineducationthereisnowaspirited8astowhethersuchaconceptwouldnotbemost9forcollegegraduatesisevidently10inthesalariestheycancommand11receiptofacollegedegree.Engineersaccountantsandcomputerspecialistscommand12salariesupongraduationandbyimplicationtheremustbean13valueaddedtotheirmarketability14theeducationandtrainingthey15incollege.Whenlookedatmoreclosely16themissingfactoris17thedifferencebetweenlearnercapabilities18totheireducationalexperiencesandgraduatecapabilitiesafter19acollegedegree.Inbriefhowmuchdoesthestudent20fromtheinstructionheorshehasreceived
Ineconomicsthevalueaddedbyamanufacturingfirmtoitsproductsisthedifferencebetweenthepriceofafinishedproductandthecostofrawmaterialspartssuppliesfuelandelectricalenergyusedintheproductionofthatproduct.When1inthismannerthevalueaddedbymanufactureisausefulindexofthemanufacturingfirm’’s2tothenationaleconomy.Itisamore3indexofcoursethan4salesafigurethatismisleadingbecauseittells5aboutproductioncostsand6themanufacturingfirmis7ataprofitorataloss. Ineducationthereisnowaspirited8astowhethersuchaconceptwouldnotbemost9forcollegegraduatesisevidently10inthesalariestheycancommand11receiptofacollegedegree.Engineersaccountantsandcomputerspecialistscommand12salariesupongraduationandbyimplicationtheremustbean13valueaddedtotheirmarketability14theeducationandtrainingthey15incollege.Whenlookedatmoreclosely16themissingfactoris17thedifferencebetweenlearnercapabilities18totheireducationalexperiencesandgraduatecapabilitiesafter19acollegedegree.Inbriefhowmuchdoesthestudent20fromtheinstructionheorshehasreceived
Thereismuchdiscussionintheliteraturethesedaysabouthowonedefinessustainabilitysustainabledevelopmentandrelatedconcepts.Manyarguethattheconceptisuselessbecauseitcannotbeadequatelydefined.46Mostofthisdiscussionismisdirectedbecauseitattemptstocasttheproblemasdefinitionalwheninfactitisaproblemofpredictionanditfailstotakeintoaccountthemanytimeandspacescalesoverwhichtheconceptofsustainabilitymustapply.Definingsustainabilityisactuallyquiteeasy:Asustainablesystemisonethatsurvivesforsomespecifiedfinitetime.Theproblemisthatoneknowsonehasasustainablesystemonlyafterthefact.Thuswhatusuallypassfordefinitionsofsustainabilityareactuallypredictionsofwhatsetofconditionswillactuallyleadtoasustainablesystem. 47Forexamplekeepingharvestratesofpotentiallyrenewableresourcessuchastreesandwildlifebelowratesofnaturalrenewalshouldonecouldargueleadtoasustainablenaturalresourceextractionsystem.Butthatisapredictionnotadefinition.Usuallythereissomuchuncertaintyinourabilitytoestimatenaturalratesofrenewalandourabilitytoobserveandregulateharvestratesthatasimplepredictionsuchasthisisalwayshighlysuspect. Likewisesustainableeconomicdevelopmentcanbeobservedonlyafterthefact.48Mostdefinitionsofsustainabledevelopmentincludeelementsofasustainablescaleoftheeconomyrelativetoitsecologicallifesupportsystem;afairdistributionofresourcesandopportunitiesbetweencurrentandfuturegenerationsaswellasbetweenindividualsinthecurrentgeneration;andanefficientallocationofresourcesthatadequatelyaccountsfornaturalcapital.Notethatthesethreecomponentsofsustainableeconomicdevelopmentareactuallypredictorsofsustainabilityandnotreallyelementsofadefinition.Likeallpredictionstheyareuncertainandaresubjecttomuchdiscussionanddisagreement. 49Thesecondproblemisthatwhenonesaysasystemhasachievedsustainabilityonedoesnotmeananinfinitelifespanbutratheralifespanthatisconsistentwiththesystem’’sexpectedtimeandspacescale.Weexpectanorganismtohavealongerlifespanthespeciestohaveanevenlongerlifespanandtheplanettolastmuchlonger.Butnosystemisexpectedtohaveaninfinitelifespan. Therealproblemsarenotsomuchdefiningthegoalaspredictingwhatpolicieswillleadtoitsachievement.Herethereisampleroomforandneedofvigorousdiscussiondebateanalysisandmodelinginordertodeterminewhichpolicieshavethebestchanceofachievingthegoalofsustainability.50Giventhehugeuncertaintiesinvolveditisofparticularimportanceinthisregardtoselectpoliciesthatareprecautionarythatistheydonottakeunnecessaryrisksthatcoulddecreasethechancesforsustainabilitytheydonotrelyonhoped-fortechnologicalfixesfortheirsuccesses. Thereismuchdiscussionintheliteraturethesedaysabouthowonedefinessustainabilitysustainabledevelopmentandrelatedconcepts.Manyarguethattheconceptisuselessbecauseitcannotbeadequatelydefined.46Mostofthisdiscussionismisdirectedbecauseitattemptstocasttheproblemasdefinitionalwheninfactitisaproblemofpredictionanditfailstotakeintoaccountthemanytimeandspacescalesoverwhichtheconceptofsustainabilitymustapply.Definingsustainabilityisactuallyquiteeasy:Asustainablesystemisonethatsurvivesforsomespecifiedfinitetime.Theproblemisthatoneknowsonehasasustainablesystemonlyafterthefact.Thuswhatusuallypassfordefinitionsofsustainabilityareactuallypredictionsofwhatsetofconditionswillactuallyleadtoasustainablesystem. 47Forexamplekeepingharvestratesofpotentiallyrenewableresourcessuchastreesandwildlifebelowratesofnaturalrenewalshouldonecouldargueleadtoasustainablenaturalresourceextractionsystem.Butthatisapredictionnotadefinition.Usuallythereissomuchuncertaintyinourabilitytoestimatenaturalratesofrenewalandourabilitytoobserveandregulateharvestratesthatasimplepredictionsuchasthisisalwayshighlysuspect. Likewisesustainableeconomicdevelopmentcanbeobservedonlyafterthefact.48Mostdefinitionsofsustainabledevelopmentincludeelementsofasustainablescaleoftheeconomyrelativetoitsecologicallifesupportsystem;afairdistributionofresourcesandopportunitiesbetweencurrentandfuturegenerationsaswellasbetweenindividualsinthecurrentgeneration;andanefficientallocationofresourcesthatadequatelyaccountsfornaturalcapital.Notethatthesethreecomponentsofsustainableeconomicdevelopmentareactuallypredictorsofsustainabilityandnotreallyelementsofadefinition.Likeallpredictionstheyareuncertainandaresubjecttomuchdiscussionanddisagreement. 49Thesecondproblemisthatwhenonesaysasystemhasachievedsustainabilityonedoesnotmeananinfinitelifespanbutratheralifespanthatisconsistentwiththesystem’’sexpectedtimeandspacescale.Weexpectanorganismtohavealongerlifespanthespeciestohaveanevenlongerlifespanandtheplanettolastmuchlonger.Butnosystemisexpectedtohaveaninfinitelifespan. Therealproblemsarenotsomuchdefiningthegoalaspredictingwhatpolicieswillleadtoitsachievement.Herethereisampleroomforandneedofvigorousdiscussiondebateanalysisandmodelinginordertodeterminewhichpolicieshavethebestchanceofachievingthegoalofsustainability.50Giventhehugeuncertaintiesinvolveditisofparticularimportanceinthisregardtoselectpoliciesthatareprecautionarythatistheydonottakeunnecessaryrisksthatcoulddecreasethechancesforsustainabilitytheydonotrelyonhoped-fortechnologicalfixesfortheirsuccesses.
Ineconomicsthevalueaddedbyamanufacturingfirmtoitsproductsisthedifferencebetweenthepriceofafinishedproductandthecostofrawmaterialspartssuppliesfuelandelectricalenergyusedintheproductionofthatproduct.When1inthismannerthevalueaddedbymanufactureisausefulindexofthemanufacturingfirm’’s2tothenationaleconomy.Itisamore3indexofcoursethan4salesafigurethatismisleadingbecauseittells5aboutproductioncostsand6themanufacturingfirmis7ataprofitorataloss. Ineducationthereisnowaspirited8astowhethersuchaconceptwouldnotbemost9forcollegegraduatesisevidently10inthesalariestheycancommand11receiptofacollegedegree.Engineersaccountantsandcomputerspecialistscommand12salariesupongraduationandbyimplicationtheremustbean13valueaddedtotheirmarketability14theeducationandtrainingthey15incollege.Whenlookedatmoreclosely16themissingfactoris17thedifferencebetweenlearnercapabilities18totheireducationalexperiencesandgraduatecapabilitiesafter19acollegedegree.Inbriefhowmuchdoesthestudent20fromtheinstructionheorshehasreceived
It’’shardlynewsanymorethatAmericansarejusttoofat.Aquicklookaroundthemallthebeachorthecrowdatanybaseballgamewillleavenoroomfordoubt:ourindividualweightproblemshavebecomeanationalcrisis.Evensotheactualnumbersareshocking.Fullytwo-thirdsofU.S.adultsareofficiallyoverweightandabouthalfofthosehavegraduatedtofull-blownobesity. Itwouldn’’tbesuchabigdealiftheproblemweresimpleaesthetic.Butexcesspoundagetakesaterribletollonthehumanbody.significantlyincreasingtheriskofheartdiseasehighbloodpressurediabetesinfertilityandmanyformsofcancer.Thetotalmedicalbillforillnessesrelatedtoobesityis$117billionayear-andclimbing-andtheJournaloftheAmericanMedicalAssociationreportedthatpoordietandphysicalinactivitycouldsoonovertaketobaccoastheleadingcauseofpreventabledeathintheU.S. WhyisithappeningTheobviousalmosttrivialansweristhatweeattoomuchhigh-caloriefoodanddon’’tburnitoffwithenoughexercise.Ifonlywecouldchangethosehabitstheproblemwouldgoaway.Butclearlyitisn’’tthateasy.Americanspourscoresofbillionsofdollarseveryyearintoweight-lossproductsandhealth-clubmemberships.Foodanddrugcompaniesspendevenmoretryingtofindamagicfoodordrugthatwillmeltthepoundsaway.Yetthenation’’scollectivewaistlinejustkeepsgrowing. It’’snaturaltotrytofindsomethingtoblame-fast-foodjointsorfoodmanufacturersorevenourselvesforhavingtoolittlewillpower.Buttheultimatereasonforobesitymayberooteddeepwithinourgenes.Obedienttotheinevitablelawsofevolutionthehumanraceadaptedovermillionsofyearstolivinginaworldofscarcitywhereitpaidtoeateverygood-tastingthinginsightwhenyoucouldfindit. Althoughourphysiologyhasstayedprettymuchthesameforthepast50000yearsorsowehumanshaveutterlytransformedourenvironment.Overthepastcenturyespeciallytechnologyhasalmostcompletelyremovedphysicalexercisefromtheday-to-daylivesofmostAmericans.Atthesametimeithasfilledsupermarketshelveswithcheapmass-producedgood-tastingfoodthatispackedwithcalories.AndfinallytechnologyhasallowedadvertiserstodeliverconstantvirtuallyirresistiblemessagesthatsayEatthisnowtoeveryoneoldenoughtowatchTV. ThisartificialenvironmentismostpervasiveintheU.S.andotherindustrializedcountriesandthat’’sexactlywherethefatcrisisismostacute. Theauthorwarnsthatoverweighthas
Ineconomicsthevalueaddedbyamanufacturingfirmtoitsproductsisthedifferencebetweenthepriceofafinishedproductandthecostofrawmaterialspartssuppliesfuelandelectricalenergyusedintheproductionofthatproduct.When1inthismannerthevalueaddedbymanufactureisausefulindexofthemanufacturingfirm’’s2tothenationaleconomy.Itisamore3indexofcoursethan4salesafigurethatismisleadingbecauseittells5aboutproductioncostsand6themanufacturingfirmis7ataprofitorataloss. Ineducationthereisnowaspirited8astowhethersuchaconceptwouldnotbemost9forcollegegraduatesisevidently10inthesalariestheycancommand11receiptofacollegedegree.Engineersaccountantsandcomputerspecialistscommand12salariesupongraduationandbyimplicationtheremustbean13valueaddedtotheirmarketability14theeducationandtrainingthey15incollege.Whenlookedatmoreclosely16themissingfactoris17thedifferencebetweenlearnercapabilities18totheireducationalexperiencesandgraduatecapabilitiesafter19acollegedegree.Inbriefhowmuchdoesthestudent20fromtheinstructionheorshehasreceived
Newsreportsoftenfocusondisputesamongscientistsoverthevalidityofpreliminaryuntesteddatahypothesesandmodelswhichbydefinitionaretentative.Thisaspectofscience-1becauseithasnotbeenwidely2andaccepted-iscalledfrontierscience.Themedia3tofocusonfrontiersciencebecauseitsso-calledbreakthroughsmakegoodnewsstories.Justbecausesomethingisinthe4offrontierscience5doesnotmeanthatitisn’’tworthyofseriousconsideration;6suchmattersneedfurtherstudytodeterminetheir7. 8contrastconsensusscienceconsistsofdatamodelstheoriesandlawsthatarewidelyaccepted.Thisaspectofscienceisveryreliablebutis9considerednewsworthy.Thetroubleisthatthewordscienceisusedto10bothfrontierandconsensussciencewithout11Themediapreference12frontiersciencegivesthepublicthe13impressionthatfrontierscience14verycertainconclusionswhichmayormaynotbecorrect. However15somefrontierscienceislatershowntobeunreliablemembersofthepublicoftenfalsely16thatconsensusscienceisalsoquiteuncertain.Weneedtotakebothfrontierandconsensusscience17butrecognizetheirdifferences.Onewaytofindoutwhatscientistsgenerallyagree18istoseekoutreportsbyscientificbodiesthatattemptto19consensusin20areasofscienceandtechnology.
Halftheworld’’spopulationwillbespeakingorlearningEnglishby2015researcherssay.TwobillionpeopleareexpectedtostartlearningEnglishwithinadecadeandthreebillionwillspeakitsaysaBritishCouncilestimate. OtherlanguagessuchasFrenchriskbecomingthecasualtiesofthislinguisticglobalization.Buttheboomwillbeoverby2050andtheEnglish-languageteachingindustrywillhavebecomeavictimofitsownsuccesssaysDavidGraddolauthorofthereportTheFutureofEnglish. Mr.Graddol’’sresearchwasbasedonacomputermodeldevelopedtoestimatedemandforEnglish-languageteachingaroundtheworld.ThelecturerwhohasworkedineducationandlanguagestudiesattheOpenUniversityforthepast25yearssaidthemodelchartedlikelystudentnumbersthroughto2050. ItwascompiledbylookingatvariousestimatesfromtheUnitedNationsEducationScientificandCulturalOrganizationUnescooneducationprovisiondemographicprojectionsgovernmenteducationpoliciesandinternationalstudentmobilityfigures.TheimpactofeducationalinnovationsandotherdevelopmentsaffectingtheworldpopulationincludingtheChinesegovernment’’spolicyofonebabyperfamilywerealsofactoredin. BasedonitsfindingsMr.GraddolhaspredictedthattheworldisabouttobehitbyatidalwaveofEnglish.ManygovernmentsespeciallyincountrieswhichhaverelativelyrecentlygainedindependenceareintroducingtheteachingofEnglishunderautilitarianbanner. ButEnglishpredominatesinthebusinessworldandforsuchcountriestobeabletocompeteforworkincludinglucrativeprofitableoutsourcingcontractsEnglishisbeingpushedheavilyfromkindergartenon. ThepotentialbonanzasourceofwealthonofferfromoutsourcingmeansevenmathsandsciencearebeingtaughtinEnglishatsecondaryschoolsinMalaysia.ButdemandforEnglishteachingwoulddropaschildrenprogressthroughacademiaandmoreuniversitiesacrosstheworldchoosetoteachinthelanguage. Mr.Graddolalsoestimatedthattheboomwouldbeoverby2050.English-languagestudentswillbedownfromtwobillionto500millionthenhesaidIncreasinglyasEnglishspreadacrosstheglobemorepeoplewillbecomebilingualevenmulti-lingualandsuchskillsarehighlyprizedinbusiness.ButBritainhasnotgotthebestreputationforlearningotherlanguages. ThereportalsoshowedthatEnglishwasnottheonlylanguagespreadingandtheworldfarfrombeingdominatedbyEnglishwastobecomemoremulti-lingual.Mr.GraddolsaidChineseArabicandSpanishareallpopularandlikelytobelanguagesofthefuture. Thewriterofthereportdeemsthatoutsourcingisto
Ineconomicsthevalueaddedbyamanufacturingfirmtoitsproductsisthedifferencebetweenthepriceofafinishedproductandthecostofrawmaterialspartssuppliesfuelandelectricalenergyusedintheproductionofthatproduct.When1inthismannerthevalueaddedbymanufactureisausefulindexofthemanufacturingfirm’’s2tothenationaleconomy.Itisamore3indexofcoursethan4salesafigurethatismisleadingbecauseittells5aboutproductioncostsand6themanufacturingfirmis7ataprofitorataloss. Ineducationthereisnowaspirited8astowhethersuchaconceptwouldnotbemost9forcollegegraduatesisevidently10inthesalariestheycancommand11receiptofacollegedegree.Engineersaccountantsandcomputerspecialistscommand12salariesupongraduationandbyimplicationtheremustbean13valueaddedtotheirmarketability14theeducationandtrainingthey15incollege.Whenlookedatmoreclosely16themissingfactoris17thedifferencebetweenlearnercapabilities18totheireducationalexperiencesandgraduatecapabilitiesafter19acollegedegree.Inbriefhowmuchdoesthestudent20fromtheinstructionheorshehasreceived
It’’shardlynewsanymorethatAmericansarejusttoofat.Aquicklookaroundthemallthebeachorthecrowdatanybaseballgamewillleavenoroomfordoubt:ourindividualweightproblemshavebecomeanationalcrisis.Evensotheactualnumbersareshocking.Fullytwo-thirdsofU.S.adultsareofficiallyoverweightandabouthalfofthosehavegraduatedtofull-blownobesity. Itwouldn’’tbesuchabigdealiftheproblemweresimpleaesthetic.Butexcesspoundagetakesaterribletollonthehumanbody.significantlyincreasingtheriskofheartdiseasehighbloodpressurediabetesinfertilityandmanyformsofcancer.Thetotalmedicalbillforillnessesrelatedtoobesityis$117billionayear-andclimbing-andtheJournaloftheAmericanMedicalAssociationreportedthatpoordietandphysicalinactivitycouldsoonovertaketobaccoastheleadingcauseofpreventabledeathintheU.S. WhyisithappeningTheobviousalmosttrivialansweristhatweeattoomuchhigh-caloriefoodanddon’’tburnitoffwithenoughexercise.Ifonlywecouldchangethosehabitstheproblemwouldgoaway.Butclearlyitisn’’tthateasy.Americanspourscoresofbillionsofdollarseveryyearintoweight-lossproductsandhealth-clubmemberships.Foodanddrugcompaniesspendevenmoretryingtofindamagicfoodordrugthatwillmeltthepoundsaway.Yetthenation’’scollectivewaistlinejustkeepsgrowing. It’’snaturaltotrytofindsomethingtoblame-fast-foodjointsorfoodmanufacturersorevenourselvesforhavingtoolittlewillpower.Buttheultimatereasonforobesitymayberooteddeepwithinourgenes.Obedienttotheinevitablelawsofevolutionthehumanraceadaptedovermillionsofyearstolivinginaworldofscarcitywhereitpaidtoeateverygood-tastingthinginsightwhenyoucouldfindit. Althoughourphysiologyhasstayedprettymuchthesameforthepast50000yearsorsowehumanshaveutterlytransformedourenvironment.Overthepastcenturyespeciallytechnologyhasalmostcompletelyremovedphysicalexercisefromtheday-to-daylivesofmostAmericans.Atthesametimeithasfilledsupermarketshelveswithcheapmass-producedgood-tastingfoodthatispackedwithcalories.AndfinallytechnologyhasallowedadvertiserstodeliverconstantvirtuallyirresistiblemessagesthatsayEatthisnowtoeveryoneoldenoughtowatchTV. ThisartificialenvironmentismostpervasiveintheU.S.andotherindustrializedcountriesandthat’’sexactlywherethefatcrisisismostacute. Fatcrisisseemstoresultchieflyfrom
WildBillDonovanwouldhavelovedtheIntemet.TheAmericanspymasterwhobuilttheOfficeofStrategicServicesinWorldWarⅡandlaterlaidtherootsfortheCIAwasfascinatedwithinformation.Donovanbelievedinusingwhatevertoolscametohandinthegreatgameofespionage--spyingasaprofession.ThesedaystheNetwhichhasalreadyre-madesucheverydaypastimesasbuyingbooksandsendingmailisreshapingDonovan’’svocationaswell. Thelatestrevolutionisn’’tsimplyamatterofgentlemenreadingothergentlemen’’se-mail.Thatkindofelectronicspyinghasbeengoingonfordecades.InthepastthreeorfouryearstheWorldWideWebhasgivenbirthtoawholeindustryofpoint-and-clickspying.Thespookscallitopen-sourceintelligenceandastheNetgrowsitisbecomingincreasinglyinfluential.In1995theCIAheldacontesttoseewhocouldcompilethemostdataaboutBumndi.ThewinnerbyalargemarginwasatinyVirginiacompanycalledOpenSourceSolutionswhoseclearadvantagewasitsmasteryoftheelectronicworld. AmongthefirmsmakingthebiggestsplashinthisnewworldisStraiffordInc.aprivateintelligence-analysisfirmbasedinAustinTexas.StraiffordmakesmoneybysellingtheresultsofspyingcoveringnationsfromChiletoRussiatocorporationslikeenergy-servicesfirmMcDermottInternational.Manyofitspredictionsareavailableonlineatwww.straitfordcom. StraiffordPresidentGeorgeFriedmansaysheseestheonlineworldasakindofmutuallyreinforcingtoolforbothinformationcollectionanddistributionaspymaster’’sdream.LastweekhisfirmwasbusyvacuumingupdatabitsfromthefarcomersoftheworldandpredictingacrisisinUkraine.Assoonasthatreportrunswe’’IIsuddenlyget500newIntemetsinge-upsfromUkrainesaysFriedmanaformerpoliticalscienceprofessor.Andwe’’11hearbackfromsomeofthem.Open-sourcespyingdoeshaveitsrisksofcoursesinceitcanbedifficulttotellgoodinformationfrombad.That’’swhereStraiffordearnsitskeep. Fridmanreliesonaleanstaffof20inAustin.Severalofhisstaffmembershavemilitary-intelligencebackgrounds.Heseesthefirm’’soutsiderstatusasthekeytoitssuccess.Straifford’’sbriefsdon’’tsoundliketheusualWashingtonback-and-forthingwherebyagenciesavoiddramaticdeclarationsonthechancetheymightbewrong.StraitfordsaysFriedmantakesprideinitsindependentvoice. Itcanbelearnedfromparagraph4that
MuchofthelanguageusedtodescribemonetarypolicysuchassteeringtheeconomytoasoftlandingoratouchonthebrakesmakesitsoundLikeaprecisescience.Nothingcouldbefurtherfromthetruth.Thelinkbetweeninterestratesandinflationisuncertain.Andtherearelongvariablelagsbeforepolicychangeshaveanyeffectontheeconomy.Hencetheanalogythatlikenstheconductofmonetarypolicytodrivingacarwithablackenedwindscreenacrackedrear-viewmirrorandafaultysteeringwheel. Givenallthesedisadvantagescentralbankersseemtohavehadmuchtoboastaboutoflate.Averageinflationinthebigsevenindustrialeconomiesfelltoamere2.3%lastyearclosetoitslowestlevelin30yearsbeforerisingslightlyto2.5%thisJuly.Thisisalongwaybelowthedouble-digitrateswhichmanycountriesexperiencedinthe1970sandearly1980s. Itisalsolessthanmostforecastershadpredicted.Inlate1994thepanelofeconomistswhichTheEconomistpollseachmonthsaidthatAmerica’’sinflationratewouldaverage3.5%in1995.Infactitfellto2.6%inAugustandisexpectedtoaverageonlyabout3%fortheyearasawhole.InBritainandJapaninflationisrunninghalfapercentagepointbelowtheratepredictedattheendoflastyear.ThisisnoflashinthepanoverthepastcoupleofyearsinflationhasbeenconsistentlylowerthanexpectedinBritainandAmerica. EconomistshavebeenparticularlysurprisedbyfavourableinflationfiguresinBritainandtheUnitedStatessinceconventionalmeasuressuggestthatbotheconomiesandespeciallyAmerica’’shavelittleproductiveslack.America’’scapacityutilisationforexamplehithistoricallyhighlevelsearlierthisyearanditsjoblessrate5.6%inAugusthasfallenbelowmostestimatesofthenaturalrateofunemployment―theratebelowwhichinflationhastakenoffinthepast. WhyhasinflationprovedsomildThemostthrillingexplanationisunfortunatelyalittledefective.Someeconomistsarguethatpowerfulstructuralchangesintheworldhaveup-endedtheoldeconomicmodelsthatwerebaseduponthehistoricallinkbetweengrowthandinflation. Thepassageshowsthattheauthoris____________thepresentsituation.
Ineconomicsthevalueaddedbyamanufacturingfirmtoitsproductsisthedifferencebetweenthepriceofafinishedproductandthecostofrawmaterialspartssuppliesfuelandelectricalenergyusedintheproductionofthatproduct.When1inthismannerthevalueaddedbymanufactureisausefulindexofthemanufacturingfirm’’s2tothenationaleconomy.Itisamore3indexofcoursethan4salesafigurethatismisleadingbecauseittells5aboutproductioncostsand6themanufacturingfirmis7ataprofitorataloss. Ineducationthereisnowaspirited8astowhethersuchaconceptwouldnotbemost9forcollegegraduatesisevidently10inthesalariestheycancommand11receiptofacollegedegree.Engineersaccountantsandcomputerspecialistscommand12salariesupongraduationandbyimplicationtheremustbean13valueaddedtotheirmarketability14theeducationandtrainingthey15incollege.Whenlookedatmoreclosely16themissingfactoris17thedifferencebetweenlearnercapabilities18totheireducationalexperiencesandgraduatecapabilitiesafter19acollegedegree.Inbriefhowmuchdoesthestudent20fromtheinstructionheorshehasreceived
MuchofthelanguageusedtodescribemonetarypolicysuchassteeringtheeconomytoasoftlandingoratouchonthebrakesmakesitsoundLikeaprecisescience.Nothingcouldbefurtherfromthetruth.Thelinkbetweeninterestratesandinflationisuncertain.Andtherearelongvariablelagsbeforepolicychangeshaveanyeffectontheeconomy.Hencetheanalogythatlikenstheconductofmonetarypolicytodrivingacarwithablackenedwindscreenacrackedrear-viewmirrorandafaultysteeringwheel. Givenallthesedisadvantagescentralbankersseemtohavehadmuchtoboastaboutoflate.Averageinflationinthebigsevenindustrialeconomiesfelltoamere2.3%lastyearclosetoitslowestlevelin30yearsbeforerisingslightlyto2.5%thisJuly.Thisisalongwaybelowthedouble-digitrateswhichmanycountriesexperiencedinthe1970sandearly1980s. Itisalsolessthanmostforecastershadpredicted.Inlate1994thepanelofeconomistswhichTheEconomistpollseachmonthsaidthatAmerica’’sinflationratewouldaverage3.5%in1995.Infactitfellto2.6%inAugustandisexpectedtoaverageonlyabout3%fortheyearasawhole.InBritainandJapaninflationisrunninghalfapercentagepointbelowtheratepredictedattheendoflastyear.ThisisnoflashinthepanoverthepastcoupleofyearsinflationhasbeenconsistentlylowerthanexpectedinBritainandAmerica. EconomistshavebeenparticularlysurprisedbyfavourableinflationfiguresinBritainandtheUnitedStatessinceconventionalmeasuressuggestthatbotheconomiesandespeciallyAmerica’’shavelittleproductiveslack.America’’scapacityutilisationforexamplehithistoricallyhighlevelsearlierthisyearanditsjoblessrate5.6%inAugusthasfallenbelowmostestimatesofthenaturalrateofunemployment―theratebelowwhichinflationhastakenoffinthepast. WhyhasinflationprovedsomildThemostthrillingexplanationisunfortunatelyalittledefective.Someeconomistsarguethatpowerfulstructuralchangesintheworldhaveup-endedtheoldeconomicmodelsthatwerebaseduponthehistoricallinkbetweengrowthandinflation. AccordingtothepassagewhichofthefollowingisTRUE
Outline: 1importanceofgoodhealth 2waystokeepfit 3myownpractices
Ineconomicsthevalueaddedbyamanufacturingfirmtoitsproductsisthedifferencebetweenthepriceofafinishedproductandthecostofrawmaterialspartssuppliesfuelandelectricalenergyusedintheproductionofthatproduct.When1inthismannerthevalueaddedbymanufactureisausefulindexofthemanufacturingfirm’’s2tothenationaleconomy.Itisamore3indexofcoursethan4salesafigurethatismisleadingbecauseittells5aboutproductioncostsand6themanufacturingfirmis7ataprofitorataloss. Ineducationthereisnowaspirited8astowhethersuchaconceptwouldnotbemost9forcollegegraduatesisevidently10inthesalariestheycancommand11receiptofacollegedegree.Engineersaccountantsandcomputerspecialistscommand12salariesupongraduationandbyimplicationtheremustbean13valueaddedtotheirmarketability14theeducationandtrainingthey15incollege.Whenlookedatmoreclosely16themissingfactoris17thedifferencebetweenlearnercapabilities18totheireducationalexperiencesandgraduatecapabilitiesafter19acollegedegree.Inbriefhowmuchdoesthestudent20fromtheinstructionheorshehasreceived
Ineconomicsthevalueaddedbyamanufacturingfirmtoitsproductsisthedifferencebetweenthepriceofafinishedproductandthecostofrawmaterialspartssuppliesfuelandelectricalenergyusedintheproductionofthatproduct.When1inthismannerthevalueaddedbymanufactureisausefulindexofthemanufacturingfirm’’s2tothenationaleconomy.Itisamore3indexofcoursethan4salesafigurethatismisleadingbecauseittells5aboutproductioncostsand6themanufacturingfirmis7ataprofitorataloss. Ineducationthereisnowaspirited8astowhethersuchaconceptwouldnotbemost9forcollegegraduatesisevidently10inthesalariestheycancommand11receiptofacollegedegree.Engineersaccountantsandcomputerspecialistscommand12salariesupongraduationandbyimplicationtheremustbean13valueaddedtotheirmarketability14theeducationandtrainingthey15incollege.Whenlookedatmoreclosely16themissingfactoris17thedifferencebetweenlearnercapabilities18totheireducationalexperiencesandgraduatecapabilitiesafter19acollegedegree.Inbriefhowmuchdoesthestudent20fromtheinstructionheorshehasreceived
Thereismuchdiscussionintheliteraturethesedaysabouthowonedefinessustainabilitysustainabledevelopmentandrelatedconcepts.Manyarguethattheconceptisuselessbecauseitcannotbeadequatelydefined.46Mostofthisdiscussionismisdirectedbecauseitattemptstocasttheproblemasdefinitionalwheninfactitisaproblemofpredictionanditfailstotakeintoaccountthemanytimeandspacescalesoverwhichtheconceptofsustainabilitymustapply.Definingsustainabilityisactuallyquiteeasy:Asustainablesystemisonethatsurvivesforsomespecifiedfinitetime.Theproblemisthatoneknowsonehasasustainablesystemonlyafterthefact.Thuswhatusuallypassfordefinitionsofsustainabilityareactuallypredictionsofwhatsetofconditionswillactuallyleadtoasustainablesystem. 47Forexamplekeepingharvestratesofpotentiallyrenewableresourcessuchastreesandwildlifebelowratesofnaturalrenewalshouldonecouldargueleadtoasustainablenaturalresourceextractionsystem.Butthatisapredictionnotadefinition.Usuallythereissomuchuncertaintyinourabilitytoestimatenaturalratesofrenewalandourabilitytoobserveandregulateharvestratesthatasimplepredictionsuchasthisisalwayshighlysuspect. Likewisesustainableeconomicdevelopmentcanbeobservedonlyafterthefact.48Mostdefinitionsofsustainabledevelopmentincludeelementsofasustainablescaleoftheeconomyrelativetoitsecologicallifesupportsystem;afairdistributionofresourcesandopportunitiesbetweencurrentandfuturegenerationsaswellasbetweenindividualsinthecurrentgeneration;andanefficientallocationofresourcesthatadequatelyaccountsfornaturalcapital.Notethatthesethreecomponentsofsustainableeconomicdevelopmentareactuallypredictorsofsustainabilityandnotreallyelementsofadefinition.Likeallpredictionstheyareuncertainandaresubjecttomuchdiscussionanddisagreement. 49Thesecondproblemisthatwhenonesaysasystemhasachievedsustainabilityonedoesnotmeananinfinitelifespanbutratheralifespanthatisconsistentwiththesystem’’sexpectedtimeandspacescale.Weexpectanorganismtohavealongerlifespanthespeciestohaveanevenlongerlifespanandtheplanettolastmuchlonger.Butnosystemisexpectedtohaveaninfinitelifespan. Therealproblemsarenotsomuchdefiningthegoalaspredictingwhatpolicieswillleadtoitsachievement.Herethereisampleroomforandneedofvigorousdiscussiondebateanalysisandmodelinginordertodeterminewhichpolicieshavethebestchanceofachievingthegoalofsustainability.50Giventhehugeuncertaintiesinvolveditisofparticularimportanceinthisregardtoselectpoliciesthatareprecautionarythatistheydonottakeunnecessaryrisksthatcoulddecreasethechancesforsustainabilitytheydonotrelyonhoped-fortechnologicalfixesfortheirsuccesses.
Wehavetorealisehowoldhowveryoldweare.Nationsareclassifiedasagedwhentheyhave7percentormoreoftheirpeopleaged65oraboveandbyabout1970everyoneoftheadvancedcountrieshadbecomelikethis.Ofthereallyancientsocietieswithover13percentabove65allareinNorthwesternEurope.Weknowthatwearegettingevenolderandthatthenearerasocietyapproximatestozeropopulationgrowththeolderitspopulationislikelytobe--atleastforanyfuturethatconcernsusnow. Tothesenowfamiliarfactsanumberoffurtherfactsmaybeaddedsomeofthemonlyrecentlyrecognised.Thereistheapparentparadoxthattheeffectivecauseofthehighproportionoftheoldisbirthsratherthandeaths.Thereistheeconomicprinciplethatthedependencyratio--thedegreetowhichthosewhocannotearndependforalivingonthosewhocan--ismoreadvantageousinoldersocietieslikeoursthanintheyoungersocietiesofthedevelopingworldbecauselotsofdependentbabiesaremoreofaliabilitythannumbersoftheinactiveaged.Thereistheappreciationofthehistoricaltruththattheagingofadvancedsocietieshasbeenasuddenchange. IfrevolutionisarapidresettlementofthesocialstructureandiftheagecompositionofthesocietycountsasaveryimportantaspectofthatsocialstructurethentherehasbeenasocialrevolutioninEuropeanandparticularlyWesternEuropeansocietywithinthelifetimeofeveryoneover50.Takentogetherthesethingshaveimplicationswhichareonlybeginningtobeacknowledged.ThesefactsandcircumstanceshadaleadingpositionataworldgatheringaboutagingasachallengetoscienceandtopolicyheldatVichyinFrance. ThereisoftenresistancetotheideathatitisbecausethebirthratefellearlierinWesternandNorthwesternEuropethanelsewhereratherthanbecauseofanychangeinthedeathratethatwehavegrownsoold.Longlifeisalteringoursocietyofcoursebutinexperientialterms.Wehaveamongusaverymuchgreaterexperienceofcontinuedlivingthananysocietythathaseverprecededusanywhereandthiswillcontinue.ButtoomuchofthatlengthenedexperienceeveninthewealthyWestwillbeexperienceofpovertyandneglectunlesswedosomethingaboutit. Ifyouareinyourthirtiesyououghttobeawarethatyoucanexpecttolivenearlyonethirdoftherestofyourlifeaftertheageof60.Theolderyouarenowofcoursethegreaterthisproportionwillbeandgreaterstillifyouareawoman. Oldersocietiesaresuperiortoyoungeronesinthat
WildBillDonovanwouldhavelovedtheIntemet.TheAmericanspymasterwhobuilttheOfficeofStrategicServicesinWorldWarⅡandlaterlaidtherootsfortheCIAwasfascinatedwithinformation.Donovanbelievedinusingwhatevertoolscametohandinthegreatgameofespionage--spyingasaprofession.ThesedaystheNetwhichhasalreadyre-madesucheverydaypastimesasbuyingbooksandsendingmailisreshapingDonovan’’svocationaswell. Thelatestrevolutionisn’’tsimplyamatterofgentlemenreadingothergentlemen’’se-mail.Thatkindofelectronicspyinghasbeengoingonfordecades.InthepastthreeorfouryearstheWorldWideWebhasgivenbirthtoawholeindustryofpoint-and-clickspying.Thespookscallitopen-sourceintelligenceandastheNetgrowsitisbecomingincreasinglyinfluential.In1995theCIAheldacontesttoseewhocouldcompilethemostdataaboutBumndi.ThewinnerbyalargemarginwasatinyVirginiacompanycalledOpenSourceSolutionswhoseclearadvantagewasitsmasteryoftheelectronicworld. AmongthefirmsmakingthebiggestsplashinthisnewworldisStraiffordInc.aprivateintelligence-analysisfirmbasedinAustinTexas.StraiffordmakesmoneybysellingtheresultsofspyingcoveringnationsfromChiletoRussiatocorporationslikeenergy-servicesfirmMcDermottInternational.Manyofitspredictionsareavailableonlineatwww.straitfordcom. StraiffordPresidentGeorgeFriedmansaysheseestheonlineworldasakindofmutuallyreinforcingtoolforbothinformationcollectionanddistributionaspymaster’’sdream.LastweekhisfirmwasbusyvacuumingupdatabitsfromthefarcomersoftheworldandpredictingacrisisinUkraine.Assoonasthatreportrunswe’’IIsuddenlyget500newIntemetsinge-upsfromUkrainesaysFriedmanaformerpoliticalscienceprofessor.Andwe’’11hearbackfromsomeofthem.Open-sourcespyingdoeshaveitsrisksofcoursesinceitcanbedifficulttotellgoodinformationfrombad.That’’swhereStraiffordearnsitskeep. Fridmanreliesonaleanstaffof20inAustin.Severalofhisstaffmembershavemilitary-intelligencebackgrounds.Heseesthefirm’’soutsiderstatusasthekeytoitssuccess.Straifford’’sbriefsdon’’tsoundliketheusualWashingtonback-and-forthingwherebyagenciesavoiddramaticdeclarationsonthechancetheymightbewrong.StraitfordsaysFriedmantakesprideinitsindependentvoice. Donovan’’sstoryismentionedinthetextto
Halftheworld’’spopulationwillbespeakingorlearningEnglishby2015researcherssay.TwobillionpeopleareexpectedtostartlearningEnglishwithinadecadeandthreebillionwillspeakitsaysaBritishCouncilestimate. OtherlanguagessuchasFrenchriskbecomingthecasualtiesofthislinguisticglobalization.Buttheboomwillbeoverby2050andtheEnglish-languageteachingindustrywillhavebecomeavictimofitsownsuccesssaysDavidGraddolauthorofthereportTheFutureofEnglish. Mr.Graddol’’sresearchwasbasedonacomputermodeldevelopedtoestimatedemandforEnglish-languageteachingaroundtheworld.ThelecturerwhohasworkedineducationandlanguagestudiesattheOpenUniversityforthepast25yearssaidthemodelchartedlikelystudentnumbersthroughto2050. ItwascompiledbylookingatvariousestimatesfromtheUnitedNationsEducationScientificandCulturalOrganizationUnescooneducationprovisiondemographicprojectionsgovernmenteducationpoliciesandinternationalstudentmobilityfigures.TheimpactofeducationalinnovationsandotherdevelopmentsaffectingtheworldpopulationincludingtheChinesegovernment’’spolicyofonebabyperfamilywerealsofactoredin. BasedonitsfindingsMr.GraddolhaspredictedthattheworldisabouttobehitbyatidalwaveofEnglish.ManygovernmentsespeciallyincountrieswhichhaverelativelyrecentlygainedindependenceareintroducingtheteachingofEnglishunderautilitarianbanner. ButEnglishpredominatesinthebusinessworldandforsuchcountriestobeabletocompeteforworkincludinglucrativeprofitableoutsourcingcontractsEnglishisbeingpushedheavilyfromkindergartenon. ThepotentialbonanzasourceofwealthonofferfromoutsourcingmeansevenmathsandsciencearebeingtaughtinEnglishatsecondaryschoolsinMalaysia.ButdemandforEnglishteachingwoulddropaschildrenprogressthroughacademiaandmoreuniversitiesacrosstheworldchoosetoteachinthelanguage. Mr.Graddolalsoestimatedthattheboomwouldbeoverby2050.English-languagestudentswillbedownfromtwobillionto500millionthenhesaidIncreasinglyasEnglishspreadacrosstheglobemorepeoplewillbecomebilingualevenmulti-lingualandsuchskillsarehighlyprizedinbusiness.ButBritainhasnotgotthebestreputationforlearningotherlanguages. ThereportalsoshowedthatEnglishwasnottheonlylanguagespreadingandtheworldfarfrombeingdominatedbyEnglishwastobecomemoremulti-lingual.Mr.GraddolsaidChineseArabicandSpanishareallpopularandlikelytobelanguagesofthefuture. ThereportTheFutureofEnglishfactoredinallofthefollowingEXCEPT
Ineconomicsthevalueaddedbyamanufacturingfirmtoitsproductsisthedifferencebetweenthepriceofafinishedproductandthecostofrawmaterialspartssuppliesfuelandelectricalenergyusedintheproductionofthatproduct.When1inthismannerthevalueaddedbymanufactureisausefulindexofthemanufacturingfirm’’s2tothenationaleconomy.Itisamore3indexofcoursethan4salesafigurethatismisleadingbecauseittells5aboutproductioncostsand6themanufacturingfirmis7ataprofitorataloss. Ineducationthereisnowaspirited8astowhethersuchaconceptwouldnotbemost9forcollegegraduatesisevidently10inthesalariestheycancommand11receiptofacollegedegree.Engineersaccountantsandcomputerspecialistscommand12salariesupongraduationandbyimplicationtheremustbean13valueaddedtotheirmarketability14theeducationandtrainingthey15incollege.Whenlookedatmoreclosely16themissingfactoris17thedifferencebetweenlearnercapabilities18totheireducationalexperiencesandgraduatecapabilitiesafter19acollegedegree.Inbriefhowmuchdoesthestudent20fromtheinstructionheorshehasreceived
Beingamanhasalwaysbeendangerous.Thereareabout105malesbornforevery100femalesbutthisratiodropstonearbalanceattheageofmaturityandamong70-year-oldtherearetwiceasmanywomenasmen.Butthegreatuniversalofmalemortalityisbeingchanged.Nowboybabiessurvivealmostaswellasgirlsdo.Thismeansthatforthefirsttimetherewillbeanexcessofboysinthosecrucialyearswhentheyaresearchingforamate.Moreimportantanotherchancefornaturalselectionhasbeenremoved.Fiftyyearsagothechanceofababyparticularlyaboybabysurvivingdependedonitsweight.Akilogramtoolightortooheavymeantalmostcertaindeath.Todayitmakesalmostnodifference.Sincemuchofthevariationisduetogenesonemoreagentofevolutionhasgone. Thereisanotherwaytocommitevolutionarysuicide:stayalivebuthavefewerchildren.Fewpeopleareasfertileasinthepast.Exceptinsomereligiouscommunitiesveryfewwomenhave15children.Nowadaysthenumberofbirthsliketheageofdeathhasbecomeaverage.Mostofushaveroughlythesamenumberofoffspring.Againdifferencesbetweenpeopleandtheopportunityfornaturalselectiontotakeadvantageofithavediminished.Indiashowswhatishappening.Thecountryofferswealthforafewinthegreatcitiesandpovertyfortheremainingtribalpeoples.Thegrandmediocrityoftoday--everyonebeingthesameinsurvivalandnumberofoffspring--meansthatnaturalselectionhaslost80%ofitspowerinupper-middle-classIndiacomparedtothetribes. Forusthismeansthatevolutionisover;thebiologicalUtopiahasarrived.Strangelyithasinvolvedlittlephysicalchange.Nootherspeciesfillssomanyplacesinnature.Butinthepast100000years--eventhepast100years--ourliveshavebeentransformedbutourbodieshavenot.Wedidnotevolvebecausemachinesandsocietydiditforus.Darwinhadaphrasetodescribethoseignorantofevolution:theylookatanorganicbeingasasavagelooksatashipasatsomethingwhollybeyondhiscomprehension.Nodoubtwewillremembera20thcenturywayoflifebeyondcomprehensionforitsugliness.ButhoweveramazedourdescendantsmaybeathowfarfromUtopiaweweretheywilllookjustlikeus. Whatusedtobethedangerinbeingamanaccordingtothefirstparagraph
It’’shardlynewsanymorethatAmericansarejusttoofat.Aquicklookaroundthemallthebeachorthecrowdatanybaseballgamewillleavenoroomfordoubt:ourindividualweightproblemshavebecomeanationalcrisis.Evensotheactualnumbersareshocking.Fullytwo-thirdsofU.S.adultsareofficiallyoverweightandabouthalfofthosehavegraduatedtofull-blownobesity. Itwouldn’’tbesuchabigdealiftheproblemweresimpleaesthetic.Butexcesspoundagetakesaterribletollonthehumanbody.significantlyincreasingtheriskofheartdiseasehighbloodpressurediabetesinfertilityandmanyformsofcancer.Thetotalmedicalbillforillnessesrelatedtoobesityis$117billionayear-andclimbing-andtheJournaloftheAmericanMedicalAssociationreportedthatpoordietandphysicalinactivitycouldsoonovertaketobaccoastheleadingcauseofpreventabledeathintheU.S. WhyisithappeningTheobviousalmosttrivialansweristhatweeattoomuchhigh-caloriefoodanddon’’tburnitoffwithenoughexercise.Ifonlywecouldchangethosehabitstheproblemwouldgoaway.Butclearlyitisn’’tthateasy.Americanspourscoresofbillionsofdollarseveryyearintoweight-lossproductsandhealth-clubmemberships.Foodanddrugcompaniesspendevenmoretryingtofindamagicfoodordrugthatwillmeltthepoundsaway.Yetthenation’’scollectivewaistlinejustkeepsgrowing. It’’snaturaltotrytofindsomethingtoblame-fast-foodjointsorfoodmanufacturersorevenourselvesforhavingtoolittlewillpower.Buttheultimatereasonforobesitymayberooteddeepwithinourgenes.Obedienttotheinevitablelawsofevolutionthehumanraceadaptedovermillionsofyearstolivinginaworldofscarcitywhereitpaidtoeateverygood-tastingthinginsightwhenyoucouldfindit. Althoughourphysiologyhasstayedprettymuchthesameforthepast50000yearsorsowehumanshaveutterlytransformedourenvironment.Overthepastcenturyespeciallytechnologyhasalmostcompletelyremovedphysicalexercisefromtheday-to-daylivesofmostAmericans.Atthesametimeithasfilledsupermarketshelveswithcheapmass-producedgood-tastingfoodthatispackedwithcalories.AndfinallytechnologyhasallowedadvertiserstodeliverconstantvirtuallyirresistiblemessagesthatsayEatthisnowtoeveryoneoldenoughtowatchTV. ThisartificialenvironmentismostpervasiveintheU.S.andotherindustrializedcountriesandthat’’sexactlywherethefatcrisisismostacute. AllofthefollowingdirectlyaccountforobesityEXCLUDING
WhataccountsforthegreatoutburstofmajorinventionsinearlyAmerica―breakthroughssuchasthetelegraphthesteamboatandtheweavingmachine AmongthemanyshapingfactorsIwouldsingleoutthecountry’’sexcellentelementaryschools;alaborforcethatwelcomedthenewtechnology;thepracticeofgivingpremiumstoinventors;andabovealltheAmericangeniusfornonverbalspatialthinkingaboutthingstechnological. WhymentiontheelementaryschoolsBecausethankstotheseschoolsourearlymechanicespeciallyintheNewEnglandandMiddleAtlanticstatesweregenerallyliterateandathomeinarithmeticandinsomeaspectsofgeometryandtrigonometry. AcuteforeignobserversrelatedAmericanadaptivenessandinventivenesstothiseducationaladvantage.AsamemberofaBritishcommissionvisitingherein1853reportedWithamindpreparedbythoroughschooldisciplinetheAmericanboydevelopsrapidlyintotheskilledworkman. Afurtherstimulustoinventioncamefromthepremiumsystemwhichprecededourpatentsystemandforyearsranparallelwithit.Thisapproachoriginatedabroadofferedinventorsmedalscashprizesandotherincentives. IntheUnitedStatesmultitudesofpremiumsfornewdeviceswereawardedatcountryfairsandattheindustrialfairsinmajorcities.Americansflockedtothesefairstoadmirethenewmachinesandthustorenewtheirfaithinthebeneficenceoftechnologicaladvance. GiventhisoptimisticapproachtotechnologicalinnovationtheAmericanworkertookreadilytothatspecialkindofnonverbalthinkingrequiredinmechanicaltechnology.AsEugeneFergusonhaspointedoutAtechnologistthinksaboutobjectsthatcannotbereducedtounambiguousverbaldescriptions;theyaredealtwithinhismindbyavisualnonverbalprocess...Thedesignerandtheinventor...areabletoassembleandmanipulateintheirmindsdevicesthatasyetdonotexist. Thisnonverbalspatialthinkingcanbejustascreativeaspaintingandwriting.RobertFultononcewroteThemechanicshouldsitdownamongleversscrewswedgeswheelsetc.likeapoetamongthelettersofthealphabetconsideringthemasanexhibitionofhisthoughtsinwhichanewarrangementtransmitsanewidea. Whenalltheseshapingforces―schoolsopenattitudesthepremiumsystemageniusforspatialthinking―interactedwithoneanotherontherichU.S.mainlandtheyproducedthatAmericancharacteristicemulation.Todaythatwordimpliesmereimitation.Butinearliertimesitmeantafriendlybutcompetitivestrivingforfameandexcellence. Thebesttitleforthispassagemightbe_________________.
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