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Thehumanbraincandoalotofwonderfulthings;manyoftheminclude1masteryofcomplexfeedbacksystemswithlong2Forexampleconsiderhowdifficultraisingachildtrulyis.Manyfactorsare3includingthenutritionalphysicalemotionalandmentalconditionofthechildandthefeedbackofthesefactors4thebehaviorofthoseinvolvedinraisingthechild.To5mattersmanyoftheresponsesofthechild/parentsystemtakeyearsto6themselves.Yetbillionsofparentshavesomehow7tofeedclotheprotectnurturehealteachandlovetheirchildren8successfuladulthood. 9allourintuitivesophisticationindealingwithcomplicatedsituationsit’’sa10toseehowpoorlywedealwithsomenewersystemsmostof11broughtaboutbytechnology. BothraisingchildrenandprotectingEarth’’slife-supportsystemsare12oflifeanddeath;inthelongtermtheyareequallyimportant.But13ourbrainsseemfairlywellpreparedforthelong-termprocessofraisingkidsweseemtohave14built-inskillfortakingcareoftheenvironmentthatsupportsusanychildrenwemighthaveandallother15.Itseemsthatthethinkingpartsofourbrainscan’’tdealwithcomplicatedsystemsandtheirlong-term16andthe17partsofourbrainsthatcandealwithcomplexsystemsdon’’thelpusmuchoutsideoftheir18areas.Oneofthegoalsofsystemsscienceistousemathandcomputerstohelppeoplegetbetter19takingcareofEarth’’slife-supportsystems.Thetaskinvolvesteachingourthinkingbrainsabout20complicatedsystemswork.
Thehumanbraincandoalotofwonderfulthings;manyoftheminclude1masteryofcomplexfeedbacksystemswithlong2Forexampleconsiderhowdifficultraisingachildtrulyis.Manyfactorsare3includingthenutritionalphysicalemotionalandmentalconditionofthechildandthefeedbackofthesefactors4thebehaviorofthoseinvolvedinraisingthechild.To5mattersmanyoftheresponsesofthechild/parentsystemtakeyearsto6themselves.Yetbillionsofparentshavesomehow7tofeedclotheprotectnurturehealteachandlovetheirchildren8successfuladulthood. 9allourintuitivesophisticationindealingwithcomplicatedsituationsit’’sa10toseehowpoorlywedealwithsomenewersystemsmostof11broughtaboutbytechnology. BothraisingchildrenandprotectingEarth’’slife-supportsystemsare12oflifeanddeath;inthelongtermtheyareequallyimportant.But13ourbrainsseemfairlywellpreparedforthelong-termprocessofraisingkidsweseemtohave14built-inskillfortakingcareoftheenvironmentthatsupportsusanychildrenwemighthaveandallother15.Itseemsthatthethinkingpartsofourbrainscan’’tdealwithcomplicatedsystemsandtheirlong-term16andthe17partsofourbrainsthatcandealwithcomplexsystemsdon’’thelpusmuchoutsideoftheir18areas.Oneofthegoalsofsystemsscienceistousemathandcomputerstohelppeoplegetbetter19takingcareofEarth’’slife-supportsystems.Thetaskinvolvesteachingourthinkingbrainsabout20complicatedsystemswork.
Thehumanbraincandoalotofwonderfulthings;manyoftheminclude1masteryofcomplexfeedbacksystemswithlong2Forexampleconsiderhowdifficultraisingachildtrulyis.Manyfactorsare3includingthenutritionalphysicalemotionalandmentalconditionofthechildandthefeedbackofthesefactors4thebehaviorofthoseinvolvedinraisingthechild.To5mattersmanyoftheresponsesofthechild/parentsystemtakeyearsto6themselves.Yetbillionsofparentshavesomehow7tofeedclotheprotectnurturehealteachandlovetheirchildren8successfuladulthood. 9allourintuitivesophisticationindealingwithcomplicatedsituationsit’’sa10toseehowpoorlywedealwithsomenewersystemsmostof11broughtaboutbytechnology. BothraisingchildrenandprotectingEarth’’slife-supportsystemsare12oflifeanddeath;inthelongtermtheyareequallyimportant.But13ourbrainsseemfairlywellpreparedforthelong-termprocessofraisingkidsweseemtohave14built-inskillfortakingcareoftheenvironmentthatsupportsusanychildrenwemighthaveandallother15.Itseemsthatthethinkingpartsofourbrainscan’’tdealwithcomplicatedsystemsandtheirlong-term16andthe17partsofourbrainsthatcandealwithcomplexsystemsdon’’thelpusmuchoutsideoftheir18areas.Oneofthegoalsofsystemsscienceistousemathandcomputerstohelppeoplegetbetter19takingcareofEarth’’slife-supportsystems.Thetaskinvolvesteachingourthinkingbrainsabout20complicatedsystemswork.
Thehumanbraincandoalotofwonderfulthings;manyoftheminclude1masteryofcomplexfeedbacksystemswithlong2Forexampleconsiderhowdifficultraisingachildtrulyis.Manyfactorsare3includingthenutritionalphysicalemotionalandmentalconditionofthechildandthefeedbackofthesefactors4thebehaviorofthoseinvolvedinraisingthechild.To5mattersmanyoftheresponsesofthechild/parentsystemtakeyearsto6themselves.Yetbillionsofparentshavesomehow7tofeedclotheprotectnurturehealteachandlovetheirchildren8successfuladulthood. 9allourintuitivesophisticationindealingwithcomplicatedsituationsit’’sa10toseehowpoorlywedealwithsomenewersystemsmostof11broughtaboutbytechnology. BothraisingchildrenandprotectingEarth’’slife-supportsystemsare12oflifeanddeath;inthelongtermtheyareequallyimportant.But13ourbrainsseemfairlywellpreparedforthelong-termprocessofraisingkidsweseemtohave14built-inskillfortakingcareoftheenvironmentthatsupportsusanychildrenwemighthaveandallother15.Itseemsthatthethinkingpartsofourbrainscan’’tdealwithcomplicatedsystemsandtheirlong-term16andthe17partsofourbrainsthatcandealwithcomplexsystemsdon’’thelpusmuchoutsideoftheir18areas.Oneofthegoalsofsystemsscienceistousemathandcomputerstohelppeoplegetbetter19takingcareofEarth’’slife-supportsystems.Thetaskinvolvesteachingourthinkingbrainsabout20complicatedsystemswork.
Thehumanbraincandoalotofwonderfulthings;manyoftheminclude1masteryofcomplexfeedbacksystemswithlong2Forexampleconsiderhowdifficultraisingachildtrulyis.Manyfactorsare3includingthenutritionalphysicalemotionalandmentalconditionofthechildandthefeedbackofthesefactors4thebehaviorofthoseinvolvedinraisingthechild.To5mattersmanyoftheresponsesofthechild/parentsystemtakeyearsto6themselves.Yetbillionsofparentshavesomehow7tofeedclotheprotectnurturehealteachandlovetheirchildren8successfuladulthood. 9allourintuitivesophisticationindealingwithcomplicatedsituationsit’’sa10toseehowpoorlywedealwithsomenewersystemsmostof11broughtaboutbytechnology. BothraisingchildrenandprotectingEarth’’slife-supportsystemsare12oflifeanddeath;inthelongtermtheyareequallyimportant.But13ourbrainsseemfairlywellpreparedforthelong-termprocessofraisingkidsweseemtohave14built-inskillfortakingcareoftheenvironmentthatsupportsusanychildrenwemighthaveandallother15.Itseemsthatthethinkingpartsofourbrainscan’’tdealwithcomplicatedsystemsandtheirlong-term16andthe17partsofourbrainsthatcandealwithcomplexsystemsdon’’thelpusmuchoutsideoftheir18areas.Oneofthegoalsofsystemsscienceistousemathandcomputerstohelppeoplegetbetter19takingcareofEarth’’slife-supportsystems.Thetaskinvolvesteachingourthinkingbrainsabout20complicatedsystemswork.
Whatoursocietysuffersfrommosttodayistheabsenceofconsensusaboutwhatitandlifeinitoughttobe.Suchconsensuscannotbegainedfromsociety’’spresentstageorfromfantasiesaboutwhatitoughttobe.Forthatthepresentistoocloseandtoodiversifiedandthefuturetoouncertaintomakebelievableclaimsaboutit.AconsensusinthepresenthencecanbeachievedonlythroughasharedunderstandingofthepastasHomer’’sepics史诗informedthosewholivedcenturieslaterwhatitmeanttobeGreekandbywhatimagesandidealstheyweretolivetheirlivesandorganizetheirsocieties. Mostsocietiesderiveconsensusfromalonghistoryalanguagealltheirownacommonreligioncommonancestry.Themythsbywhichtheylivearebasedonallofthese.ButtheUnitedStatesisacountryofimmigrantscomingfromagreatvarietyofnations.Latelyithasbeenemphasizedthatanasocialnarcissistic自我陶醉的personalityhasbecomecharacteristicofAmericansandthatitisthistypeofpersonalitythatmakesforthelackofwell-beingbecauseitpreventsusfromachievingconsensusthatwouldcounteractatendencytowithdrawintoprivateworlds.InhisstudyofnarcissismChristopherLaschsaysthatmodernmantorturedbyself-consciousnessturnstonewtherapiesnottofreehimselfofhispersonalworriesbuttofindmeaningandpurposeinlifetofindsomethingtolivefor.Thereiswidespreaddistressbecausenationalmoralehasdeclinedandwehavelostanearliersenseofnationalvisionandpurpose. Contrarytorigidreligionsorpoliticalbeliefsasarefoundintotalitarian极权主义的societiesourcultureisoneofgreatindividualdifferencesatleastinprincipleandintheory.Butthisleadstodisunityevenchaos.Americansbelieveinthevalueofdiversitybutjustbecauseoursisasocietybasedonindividualdiversityitneedsconsensusaboutsomedominatingideasmorethansocietiesbasedonuniformoriginoftheircitizens.Henceifwearetohaveconsensusitmustbebasedonamyth―avision―aboutacommonexperienceaconquestthatmadeusAmericansasthemythabouttheconquestofTroyformedtheGreeks.Onlyacommonmythcanofferrelieffromthefearthatlifeiswithoutmeaningorpurpose.Mythspermitustoexamineourplaceintheworldbycomparingittoasharedidea.Mythsaresharedfantasiesthatformthetiethatbindstheindividualtoothermembersofhisgroup.Suchmythshelptowardofffeelingsofisolationguiltanxietyandpurposelessness―inshorttheycombatisolationandthebreakdownofsocialstandardsandvalues. Intheauthor’’sviewthegreatesttroublewiththeU.S.societyliesinthe
Oneofthequestionsthatiscomingintofocusaswefacegrowingscarcityofresourcesofmanykindsintheworldishowtodividelimitedresourcesamongcountries.Intheinternationaldevelopmentcommunitytheconventionalwisdomhasbeenthatthe2billionpeoplelivinginpoorcountriescouldneverexpecttoreachthestandardoflivingthatmostofusinNorthAmericaenjoysimplybecausetheworlddoesnotcontainenoughironoreproteinpetroleumandsoon.AtthesametimeweintheUnitedStateshavecontinuedtopursuesuperaffluenceasthoughtherewerenolimitsonhowmuchwecouldconsume.Wemakeup6percentoftheworld’’speople;yetweconsumeone-thirdoftheworld’’sresources. Aslongastheresourcesweconsumedeachyearcameprimarilyfromwithinourownboundariesthiswaslargelyaninternalmatter.Butasourresourcescomemoreandmorefromtheoutsideworldoutsiders’’’aregoingtohavesomesayovertherateatwhichandtermsunderwhichweconsume.Wewillnolongerbeabletothinkintermsofourresourcesandtheirresourcesbutonlyofcommonresources. AsAmericansconsumingsuchadisproportionateshareoftheworld’’sresourceswehavetoquestionwhetherornotwecancontinueourpursuitofsuperaffluenceinaworldofscarcity.Wearenowreachingthepointwherewemustcarefullyexaminethepresumedlinkbetweenourlevelofwell-beingandthelevelofmaterialgoodsconsumed.Ifyouhaveonlyonecrustofbreadandgetanothercrustofbreadyourwell-beingisgreatlyenhanced.Butifyouhavealoafofbreadthenanadditionalcrustofbreaddoesn’’tmakethatmuchdifference.IntheeyesofmostoftheworldtodayAmericanshavetheirloafofbreadandareaskingforstillmore.Peopleelsewherearebeginningtoaskwhy.Thisisthequestionwe’’regoingtohavetoanswerwhetherwe’’retryingtopersuadecountriestostepuptheirexportsofoiltousortryingtoconvincethemthatweoughttobepermittedtomaintainourshareoftheworldfishcatch. Theprospectofascarcityofandcompetitionfortheworld’’sresourcesrequiresthatwereexaminethewayinwhichwerelatetotherestoftheworld.Itmeanswefindwaysofcuttingbackonresourceconsumptionthatisdependentontheresourcesandcooperationofothercountries.Wecannotexpectpeopleinthesecountriestoconcernthemselveswithourworseningenergyandfoodshortagesunlesswedemonstratesomeconcernforthehungerilliteracyanddiseasethatarediminishinglifeforthem. ThewriterwarnsAmericansthat
Ahistoryoflongandeffortlesssuccesscanbeadreadfulhandicapbutifproperlyhandleditmaybecomeadrivingforce.WhentheUnitedStatesenteredjustsuchaglowingperiodaftertheendoftheSecondWorldWarithadamarketeighttimeslargerthananycompetitorgivingitsindustriesunparalleledeconomiesofscale.Itsscientistsweretheworld’’sbestitsworkerswerethemostskilled.AmericaandAmericanswereprosperousbeyondthedreamsoftheEuropeansandAsianswhoseeconomiesthewarhaddestroyed. Itwasinevitablethatthisprimacyshouldhavenarrowedasothercountriesgrewricher.Justasinevitablytheretreatfrompredominanceprovedpainful.Bythemid-1980sAmericanshadfoundthemselvesatalossovertheirfadingindustrialcompetitiveness.SomehugeAmericanindustriessuchasconsumerelectronicshadshrunkorvanishedinthefaceofforeigncompetition.By1987therewasonlyoneAmericantelevisionmakerleftZenith.Nowthereisnone:ZenithwasboughtbySouthKorea’’sLGElectronicsinJuly.Foreign-madecarsandtextilesweresweepingintothedomesticmarket.America’’smachine-toolindustrywasontheropes.ForawhileitlookedasthoughthemakingofsemiconductorswhichAmericahadinventedandwhichsatattheheartofthenewcomputeragewasgoingtobethenextcasualty. Allofthiscausedacrisisofconfidence.Americansstoppedtakingprosperityforgranted.Theybegantobelievethattheirwayofdoingbusinesswasfailingandthattheirincomeswouldthereforeshortlybegintofallaswell.Themid-1980sbroughtoneinquiryafteranotherintothecausesofAmerica’’sindustrialdecline.Theirsometimessensationalfindingswerefilledwithwarningsaboutthegrowingcompetitionfromoverseas. Howthingshavechanged!In1995theUnitedStatescanlookbackonfiveyearsofsolidgrowthwhileJapanhasbeenstruggling.FewAmericansattributethissolelytosuchobviouscausesasadevalueddollarortheturningofthebusinesscycle.Self-doubthasyieldedtoblindpride.Americanindustryhaschangeditsstructurehasgoneonadiethaslearnttobemorequick-wittedaccordingtoRichardCavanaghexecutivedeanofHarvard’’sKennedySchoolofGovernment.ItmakesmeproudtobeanAmericanjusttoseehowourbusinessesareimprovingtheirproductivitysaysStephenMooreoftheCatoInstituteathink-tankinWashingtonD.C.AndWilliamSahlmanoftheHarvardBusinessSchoolbelievesthatpeoplewilllookbackonthisperiodasagoldenageofbusinessmanagementintheUnitedStates. Whatcanbeinferredfromthepassage
Thehumanbraincandoalotofwonderfulthings;manyoftheminclude1masteryofcomplexfeedbacksystemswithlong2Forexampleconsiderhowdifficultraisingachildtrulyis.Manyfactorsare3includingthenutritionalphysicalemotionalandmentalconditionofthechildandthefeedbackofthesefactors4thebehaviorofthoseinvolvedinraisingthechild.To5mattersmanyoftheresponsesofthechild/parentsystemtakeyearsto6themselves.Yetbillionsofparentshavesomehow7tofeedclotheprotectnurturehealteachandlovetheirchildren8successfuladulthood. 9allourintuitivesophisticationindealingwithcomplicatedsituationsit’’sa10toseehowpoorlywedealwithsomenewersystemsmostof11broughtaboutbytechnology. BothraisingchildrenandprotectingEarth’’slife-supportsystemsare12oflifeanddeath;inthelongtermtheyareequallyimportant.But13ourbrainsseemfairlywellpreparedforthelong-termprocessofraisingkidsweseemtohave14built-inskillfortakingcareoftheenvironmentthatsupportsusanychildrenwemighthaveandallother15.Itseemsthatthethinkingpartsofourbrainscan’’tdealwithcomplicatedsystemsandtheirlong-term16andthe17partsofourbrainsthatcandealwithcomplexsystemsdon’’thelpusmuchoutsideoftheir18areas.Oneofthegoalsofsystemsscienceistousemathandcomputerstohelppeoplegetbetter19takingcareofEarth’’slife-supportsystems.Thetaskinvolvesteachingourthinkingbrainsabout20complicatedsystemswork.
Ofallthecomponentsofagoodnight’’ssleepdreamsseemtobeleastwithinourcontrol.Indreamsawindowopensintoaworldwherelogicissuspendedanddeadpeoplespeak.AcenturyagoFreudformulatedhisrevolutionarytheorythatdreamswerethedisguisedshadowsofourunconsciousdesiresandfears;bythelate1970sneurologistshadswitchedtothinkingofthemasjustmentalnoise―therandombyproductsoftheneural-repairworkthatgoesonduringsleep.Nowresearcherssuspectthatdreamsarepartofthemind’’semotionalthermostatregulatingmoodswhilethebrainisoff-line.Andoneleadingauthoritysaysthattheseintenselypowerfulmentaleventscanbenotonlyharnessedbutactuallybroughtunderconsciouscontroltohelpussleepandfeelbetter.It’’syourdreamsaysRosalindCartwrightchairofpsychologyatChicago’’sMedicalCenter.Ifyoudon’’tlikeitchangeit. Evidencefrombrainimagingsupportsthisview.ThebrainisasactiveduringREMrapideyemovementsleep―whenmostvividdreamsoccur―asitiswhenfullyawakesaysDr.EricNofzingerattheUniversityofPittsburgh.Butnotallpartsofthebrainareequallyinvolved;thelimbicsystemtheemotionalbrainisespeciallyactivewhiletheprefrontalcortexthecenterofintellectandreasoningisrelativelyquiet.WewakeupfromdreamshappyordepressedandthosefeelingscanstaywithusalldaysaysStanfordsleepresearcherDr.WilliamDement. ThelinkbetweendreamsandemotionsshowsupamongthepatientsinCartwright’’sclinic.Mostpeopleseemtohavemorebaddreamsearlyinthenightprogressingtowardhappieronesbeforeawakeningsuggestingthattheyareworkingthroughnegativefeelingsgeneratedduringtheday.Becauseourconsciousmindisoccupiedwithdailylifewedon’’talwaysthinkabouttheemotionalsignificanceoftheday’’sevents―untilitappearswebegintodream. Andthisprocessneednotbelefttotheunconscious.Cartwrightbelievesonecanexerciseconsciouscontroloverrecurringbaddreams.Assoonasyouawakenidentifywhatisupsettingaboutthedream.Visualizehowyouwouldlikeittoendinstead;thenexttimeitoccurstrytowakeupjustenoughtocontrolitscourse.Withmuchpracticepeoplecanlearntoliterallydoitintheirsleep. Attheendofthedaythere’’sprobablylittlereasontopayattentiontoourdreamsatallunlesstheykeepusfromsleepingorwewakeupinapanicCartwrightsays.Terrorismeconomicuncertaintiesandgeneralfeelingsofinsecurityhaveincreasedpeople’’sanxiety.Thosesufferingfrompersistentnightmaresshouldseekhelpfromatherapist.Fortherestofusthebrainhasitswaysofworkingthroughbadfeelings.Sleeporratherdream―onitandyou’’llfeelbetterinthemorning. Cartwrightseemstosuggestthat
Oneofthequestionsthatiscomingintofocusaswefacegrowingscarcityofresourcesofmanykindsintheworldishowtodividelimitedresourcesamongcountries.Intheinternationaldevelopmentcommunitytheconventionalwisdomhasbeenthatthe2billionpeoplelivinginpoorcountriescouldneverexpecttoreachthestandardoflivingthatmostofusinNorthAmericaenjoysimplybecausetheworlddoesnotcontainenoughironoreproteinpetroleumandsoon.AtthesametimeweintheUnitedStateshavecontinuedtopursuesuperaffluenceasthoughtherewerenolimitsonhowmuchwecouldconsume.Wemakeup6percentoftheworld’’speople;yetweconsumeone-thirdoftheworld’’sresources. Aslongastheresourcesweconsumedeachyearcameprimarilyfromwithinourownboundariesthiswaslargelyaninternalmatter.Butasourresourcescomemoreandmorefromtheoutsideworldoutsiders’’’aregoingtohavesomesayovertherateatwhichandtermsunderwhichweconsume.Wewillnolongerbeabletothinkintermsofourresourcesandtheirresourcesbutonlyofcommonresources. AsAmericansconsumingsuchadisproportionateshareoftheworld’’sresourceswehavetoquestionwhetherornotwecancontinueourpursuitofsuperaffluenceinaworldofscarcity.Wearenowreachingthepointwherewemustcarefullyexaminethepresumedlinkbetweenourlevelofwell-beingandthelevelofmaterialgoodsconsumed.Ifyouhaveonlyonecrustofbreadandgetanothercrustofbreadyourwell-beingisgreatlyenhanced.Butifyouhavealoafofbreadthenanadditionalcrustofbreaddoesn’’tmakethatmuchdifference.IntheeyesofmostoftheworldtodayAmericanshavetheirloafofbreadandareaskingforstillmore.Peopleelsewherearebeginningtoaskwhy.Thisisthequestionwe’’regoingtohavetoanswerwhetherwe’’retryingtopersuadecountriestostepuptheirexportsofoiltousortryingtoconvincethemthatweoughttobepermittedtomaintainourshareoftheworldfishcatch. Theprospectofascarcityofandcompetitionfortheworld’’sresourcesrequiresthatwereexaminethewayinwhichwerelatetotherestoftheworld.Itmeanswefindwaysofcuttingbackonresourceconsumptionthatisdependentontheresourcesandcooperationofothercountries.Wecannotexpectpeopleinthesecountriestoconcernthemselveswithourworseningenergyandfoodshortagesunlesswedemonstratesomeconcernforthehungerilliteracyanddiseasethatarediminishinglifeforthem. ThewritergivestheexampleofbreadtoshowthattheUnitedStates
Thehumanbraincandoalotofwonderfulthings;manyoftheminclude1masteryofcomplexfeedbacksystemswithlong2Forexampleconsiderhowdifficultraisingachildtrulyis.Manyfactorsare3includingthenutritionalphysicalemotionalandmentalconditionofthechildandthefeedbackofthesefactors4thebehaviorofthoseinvolvedinraisingthechild.To5mattersmanyoftheresponsesofthechild/parentsystemtakeyearsto6themselves.Yetbillionsofparentshavesomehow7tofeedclotheprotectnurturehealteachandlovetheirchildren8successfuladulthood. 9allourintuitivesophisticationindealingwithcomplicatedsituationsit’’sa10toseehowpoorlywedealwithsomenewersystemsmostof11broughtaboutbytechnology. BothraisingchildrenandprotectingEarth’’slife-supportsystemsare12oflifeanddeath;inthelongtermtheyareequallyimportant.But13ourbrainsseemfairlywellpreparedforthelong-termprocessofraisingkidsweseemtohave14built-inskillfortakingcareoftheenvironmentthatsupportsusanychildrenwemighthaveandallother15.Itseemsthatthethinkingpartsofourbrainscan’’tdealwithcomplicatedsystemsandtheirlong-term16andthe17partsofourbrainsthatcandealwithcomplexsystemsdon’’thelpusmuchoutsideoftheir18areas.Oneofthegoalsofsystemsscienceistousemathandcomputerstohelppeoplegetbetter19takingcareofEarth’’slife-supportsystems.Thetaskinvolvesteachingourthinkingbrainsabout20complicatedsystemswork.
Whatoursocietysuffersfrommosttodayistheabsenceofconsensusaboutwhatitandlifeinitoughttobe.Suchconsensuscannotbegainedfromsociety’’spresentstageorfromfantasiesaboutwhatitoughttobe.Forthatthepresentistoocloseandtoodiversifiedandthefuturetoouncertaintomakebelievableclaimsaboutit.AconsensusinthepresenthencecanbeachievedonlythroughasharedunderstandingofthepastasHomer’’sepics史诗informedthosewholivedcenturieslaterwhatitmeanttobeGreekandbywhatimagesandidealstheyweretolivetheirlivesandorganizetheirsocieties. Mostsocietiesderiveconsensusfromalonghistoryalanguagealltheirownacommonreligioncommonancestry.Themythsbywhichtheylivearebasedonallofthese.ButtheUnitedStatesisacountryofimmigrantscomingfromagreatvarietyofnations.Latelyithasbeenemphasizedthatanasocialnarcissistic自我陶醉的personalityhasbecomecharacteristicofAmericansandthatitisthistypeofpersonalitythatmakesforthelackofwell-beingbecauseitpreventsusfromachievingconsensusthatwouldcounteractatendencytowithdrawintoprivateworlds.InhisstudyofnarcissismChristopherLaschsaysthatmodernmantorturedbyself-consciousnessturnstonewtherapiesnottofreehimselfofhispersonalworriesbuttofindmeaningandpurposeinlifetofindsomethingtolivefor.Thereiswidespreaddistressbecausenationalmoralehasdeclinedandwehavelostanearliersenseofnationalvisionandpurpose. Contrarytorigidreligionsorpoliticalbeliefsasarefoundintotalitarian极权主义的societiesourcultureisoneofgreatindividualdifferencesatleastinprincipleandintheory.Butthisleadstodisunityevenchaos.Americansbelieveinthevalueofdiversitybutjustbecauseoursisasocietybasedonindividualdiversityitneedsconsensusaboutsomedominatingideasmorethansocietiesbasedonuniformoriginoftheircitizens.Henceifwearetohaveconsensusitmustbebasedonamyth―avision―aboutacommonexperienceaconquestthatmadeusAmericansasthemythabouttheconquestofTroyformedtheGreeks.Onlyacommonmythcanofferrelieffromthefearthatlifeiswithoutmeaningorpurpose.Mythspermitustoexamineourplaceintheworldbycomparingittoasharedidea.Mythsaresharedfantasiesthatformthetiethatbindstheindividualtoothermembersofhisgroup.Suchmythshelptowardofffeelingsofisolationguiltanxietyandpurposelessness―inshorttheycombatisolationandthebreakdownofsocialstandardsandvalues. ItcanbeinferredfromParagraph2thatChristopherLaschismostprobably
Whatoursocietysuffersfrommosttodayistheabsenceofconsensusaboutwhatitandlifeinitoughttobe.Suchconsensuscannotbegainedfromsociety’’spresentstageorfromfantasiesaboutwhatitoughttobe.Forthatthepresentistoocloseandtoodiversifiedandthefuturetoouncertaintomakebelievableclaimsaboutit.AconsensusinthepresenthencecanbeachievedonlythroughasharedunderstandingofthepastasHomer’’sepics史诗informedthosewholivedcenturieslaterwhatitmeanttobeGreekandbywhatimagesandidealstheyweretolivetheirlivesandorganizetheirsocieties. Mostsocietiesderiveconsensusfromalonghistoryalanguagealltheirownacommonreligioncommonancestry.Themythsbywhichtheylivearebasedonallofthese.ButtheUnitedStatesisacountryofimmigrantscomingfromagreatvarietyofnations.Latelyithasbeenemphasizedthatanasocialnarcissistic自我陶醉的personalityhasbecomecharacteristicofAmericansandthatitisthistypeofpersonalitythatmakesforthelackofwell-beingbecauseitpreventsusfromachievingconsensusthatwouldcounteractatendencytowithdrawintoprivateworlds.InhisstudyofnarcissismChristopherLaschsaysthatmodernmantorturedbyself-consciousnessturnstonewtherapiesnottofreehimselfofhispersonalworriesbuttofindmeaningandpurposeinlifetofindsomethingtolivefor.Thereiswidespreaddistressbecausenationalmoralehasdeclinedandwehavelostanearliersenseofnationalvisionandpurpose. Contrarytorigidreligionsorpoliticalbeliefsasarefoundintotalitarian极权主义的societiesourcultureisoneofgreatindividualdifferencesatleastinprincipleandintheory.Butthisleadstodisunityevenchaos.Americansbelieveinthevalueofdiversitybutjustbecauseoursisasocietybasedonindividualdiversityitneedsconsensusaboutsomedominatingideasmorethansocietiesbasedonuniformoriginoftheircitizens.Henceifwearetohaveconsensusitmustbebasedonamyth―avision―aboutacommonexperienceaconquestthatmadeusAmericansasthemythabouttheconquestofTroyformedtheGreeks.Onlyacommonmythcanofferrelieffromthefearthatlifeiswithoutmeaningorpurpose.Mythspermitustoexamineourplaceintheworldbycomparingittoasharedidea.Mythsaresharedfantasiesthatformthetiethatbindstheindividualtoothermembersofhisgroup.Suchmythshelptowardofffeelingsofisolationguiltanxietyandpurposelessness―inshorttheycombatisolationandthebreakdownofsocialstandardsandvalues. TheauthorconcludesthatonlysharedmythscanhelpAmericans
Thehumanbraincandoalotofwonderfulthings;manyoftheminclude1masteryofcomplexfeedbacksystemswithlong2Forexampleconsiderhowdifficultraisingachildtrulyis.Manyfactorsare3includingthenutritionalphysicalemotionalandmentalconditionofthechildandthefeedbackofthesefactors4thebehaviorofthoseinvolvedinraisingthechild.To5mattersmanyoftheresponsesofthechild/parentsystemtakeyearsto6themselves.Yetbillionsofparentshavesomehow7tofeedclotheprotectnurturehealteachandlovetheirchildren8successfuladulthood. 9allourintuitivesophisticationindealingwithcomplicatedsituationsit’’sa10toseehowpoorlywedealwithsomenewersystemsmostof11broughtaboutbytechnology. BothraisingchildrenandprotectingEarth’’slife-supportsystemsare12oflifeanddeath;inthelongtermtheyareequallyimportant.But13ourbrainsseemfairlywellpreparedforthelong-termprocessofraisingkidsweseemtohave14built-inskillfortakingcareoftheenvironmentthatsupportsusanychildrenwemighthaveandallother15.Itseemsthatthethinkingpartsofourbrainscan’’tdealwithcomplicatedsystemsandtheirlong-term16andthe17partsofourbrainsthatcandealwithcomplexsystemsdon’’thelpusmuchoutsideoftheir18areas.Oneofthegoalsofsystemsscienceistousemathandcomputerstohelppeoplegetbetter19takingcareofEarth’’slife-supportsystems.Thetaskinvolvesteachingourthinkingbrainsabout20complicatedsystemswork.
Sometimeswehavespecificproblemswithourmother;sometimeslifewithhercanjustbehardwork.Iftherearedifficultiesinyour1it’sbesttodealwiththem2rememberthatany3shouldbedone4personorbyletter.Thetelephoneisnotagood5becauseitistooeasy6eithersideto7theconversation. Explaintoher8youfinddifficultinyourrelationshipandthen9somenewarrangementsthatyouthinkwouldestablisha10balancebetweenyou.Sometimeswehold11fromestablishingsuchboundariesbecauseweareafraidthatdoing12impliesweare13her.Weneedtorememberthatbeing14fromourmotherdoesnot15meanthatwenolongerloveher.Iftheconflictis16andyoucannotfindawayto17ityoumightdecidetogiveupyourrelationshipwithyourmotherforawhile.Someofmypatientshad18"trialseparations".The19allowedthingstosimmerdownenabling20. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.2
Oneofthequestionsthatiscomingintofocusaswefacegrowingscarcityofresourcesofmanykindsintheworldishowtodividelimitedresourcesamongcountries.Intheinternationaldevelopmentcommunitytheconventionalwisdomhasbeenthatthe2billionpeoplelivinginpoorcountriescouldneverexpecttoreachthestandardoflivingthatmostofusinNorthAmericaenjoysimplybecausetheworlddoesnotcontainenoughironoreproteinpetroleumandsoon.AtthesametimeweintheUnitedStateshavecontinuedtopursuesuperaffluenceasthoughtherewerenolimitsonhowmuchwecouldconsume.Wemakeup6percentoftheworld’’speople;yetweconsumeone-thirdoftheworld’’sresources. Aslongastheresourcesweconsumedeachyearcameprimarilyfromwithinourownboundariesthiswaslargelyaninternalmatter.Butasourresourcescomemoreandmorefromtheoutsideworldoutsiders’’’aregoingtohavesomesayovertherateatwhichandtermsunderwhichweconsume.Wewillnolongerbeabletothinkintermsofourresourcesandtheirresourcesbutonlyofcommonresources. AsAmericansconsumingsuchadisproportionateshareoftheworld’’sresourceswehavetoquestionwhetherornotwecancontinueourpursuitofsuperaffluenceinaworldofscarcity.Wearenowreachingthepointwherewemustcarefullyexaminethepresumedlinkbetweenourlevelofwell-beingandthelevelofmaterialgoodsconsumed.Ifyouhaveonlyonecrustofbreadandgetanothercrustofbreadyourwell-beingisgreatlyenhanced.Butifyouhavealoafofbreadthenanadditionalcrustofbreaddoesn’’tmakethatmuchdifference.IntheeyesofmostoftheworldtodayAmericanshavetheirloafofbreadandareaskingforstillmore.Peopleelsewherearebeginningtoaskwhy.Thisisthequestionwe’’regoingtohavetoanswerwhetherwe’’retryingtopersuadecountriestostepuptheirexportsofoiltousortryingtoconvincethemthatweoughttobepermittedtomaintainourshareoftheworldfishcatch. Theprospectofascarcityofandcompetitionfortheworld’’sresourcesrequiresthatwereexaminethewayinwhichwerelatetotherestoftheworld.Itmeanswefindwaysofcuttingbackonresourceconsumptionthatisdependentontheresourcesandcooperationofothercountries.Wecannotexpectpeopleinthesecountriestoconcernthemselveswithourworseningenergyandfoodshortagesunlesswedemonstratesomeconcernforthehungerilliteracyanddiseasethatarediminishinglifeforthem. .Itcanbeconcludedfromthetextthat
Sometimeswehavespecificproblemswithourmother;sometimeslifewithhercanjustbehardwork.Iftherearedifficultiesinyour1it’sbesttodealwiththem2rememberthatany3shouldbedone4personorbyletter.Thetelephoneisnotagood5becauseitistooeasy6eithersideto7theconversation. Explaintoher8youfinddifficultinyourrelationshipandthen9somenewarrangementsthatyouthinkwouldestablisha10balancebetweenyou.Sometimeswehold11fromestablishingsuchboundariesbecauseweareafraidthatdoing12impliesweare13her.Weneedtorememberthatbeing14fromourmotherdoesnot15meanthatwenolongerloveher.Iftheconflictis16andyoucannotfindawayto17ityoumightdecidetogiveupyourrelationshipwithyourmotherforawhile.Someofmypatientshad18"trialseparations".The19allowedthingstosimmerdownenabling20. Readthefollowingtext.ChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.4
Thehumanbraincandoalotofwonderfulthings;manyoftheminclude1masteryofcomplexfeedbacksystemswithlong2Forexampleconsiderhowdifficultraisingachildtrulyis.Manyfactorsare3includingthenutritionalphysicalemotionalandmentalconditionofthechildandthefeedbackofthesefactors4thebehaviorofthoseinvolvedinraisingthechild.To5mattersmanyoftheresponsesofthechild/parentsystemtakeyearsto6themselves.Yetbillionsofparentshavesomehow7tofeedclotheprotectnurturehealteachandlovetheirchildren8successfuladulthood. 9allourintuitivesophisticationindealingwithcomplicatedsituationsit’’sa10toseehowpoorlywedealwithsomenewersystemsmostof11broughtaboutbytechnology. BothraisingchildrenandprotectingEarth’’slife-supportsystemsare12oflifeanddeath;inthelongtermtheyareequallyimportant.But13ourbrainsseemfairlywellpreparedforthelong-termprocessofraisingkidsweseemtohave14built-inskillfortakingcareoftheenvironmentthatsupportsusanychildrenwemighthaveandallother15.Itseemsthatthethinkingpartsofourbrainscan’’tdealwithcomplicatedsystemsandtheirlong-term16andthe17partsofourbrainsthatcandealwithcomplexsystemsdon’’thelpusmuchoutsideoftheir18areas.Oneofthegoalsofsystemsscienceistousemathandcomputerstohelppeoplegetbetter19takingcareofEarth’’slife-supportsystems.Thetaskinvolvesteachingourthinkingbrainsabout20complicatedsystemswork.
Ofallthecomponentsofagoodnight’’ssleepdreamsseemtobeleastwithinourcontrol.Indreamsawindowopensintoaworldwherelogicissuspendedanddeadpeoplespeak.AcenturyagoFreudformulatedhisrevolutionarytheorythatdreamswerethedisguisedshadowsofourunconsciousdesiresandfears;bythelate1970sneurologistshadswitchedtothinkingofthemasjustmentalnoise―therandombyproductsoftheneural-repairworkthatgoesonduringsleep.Nowresearcherssuspectthatdreamsarepartofthemind’’semotionalthermostatregulatingmoodswhilethebrainisoff-line.Andoneleadingauthoritysaysthattheseintenselypowerfulmentaleventscanbenotonlyharnessedbutactuallybroughtunderconsciouscontroltohelpussleepandfeelbetter.It’’syourdreamsaysRosalindCartwrightchairofpsychologyatChicago’’sMedicalCenter.Ifyoudon’’tlikeitchangeit. Evidencefrombrainimagingsupportsthisview.ThebrainisasactiveduringREMrapideyemovementsleep―whenmostvividdreamsoccur―asitiswhenfullyawakesaysDr.EricNofzingerattheUniversityofPittsburgh.Butnotallpartsofthebrainareequallyinvolved;thelimbicsystemtheemotionalbrainisespeciallyactivewhiletheprefrontalcortexthecenterofintellectandreasoningisrelativelyquiet.WewakeupfromdreamshappyordepressedandthosefeelingscanstaywithusalldaysaysStanfordsleepresearcherDr.WilliamDement. ThelinkbetweendreamsandemotionsshowsupamongthepatientsinCartwright’’sclinic.Mostpeopleseemtohavemorebaddreamsearlyinthenightprogressingtowardhappieronesbeforeawakeningsuggestingthattheyareworkingthroughnegativefeelingsgeneratedduringtheday.Becauseourconsciousmindisoccupiedwithdailylifewedon’’talwaysthinkabouttheemotionalsignificanceoftheday’’sevents―untilitappearswebegintodream. Andthisprocessneednotbelefttotheunconscious.Cartwrightbelievesonecanexerciseconsciouscontroloverrecurringbaddreams.Assoonasyouawakenidentifywhatisupsettingaboutthedream.Visualizehowyouwouldlikeittoendinstead;thenexttimeitoccurstrytowakeupjustenoughtocontrolitscourse.Withmuchpracticepeoplecanlearntoliterallydoitintheirsleep. Attheendofthedaythere’’sprobablylittlereasontopayattentiontoourdreamsatallunlesstheykeepusfromsleepingorwewakeupinapanicCartwrightsays.Terrorismeconomicuncertaintiesandgeneralfeelingsofinsecurityhaveincreasedpeople’’sanxiety.Thosesufferingfrompersistentnightmaresshouldseekhelpfromatherapist.Fortherestofusthebrainhasitswaysofworkingthroughbadfeelings.Sleeporratherdream―onitandyou’’llfeelbetterinthemorning. Byreferringtothelimbicsystemtheauthorintendstoshow
Thereismuchdiscussionintheliteraturethesedaysabouthowonedefinessustainabilitysustainabledevelopmentandrelatedconcepts.Manyarguethattheconceptisuselessbecauseitcannotbeadequatelydefined.46Mostofthisdiscussionismisdirectedbecauseitattemptstocasttheproblemasdefinitionalwheninfactitisaproblemofpredictionanditfailstotakeintoaccountthemanytimeandspacescalesoverwhichtheconceptofsustainabilitymustapply.Definingsustainabilityisactuallyquiteeasy:Asustainablesystemisonethatsurvivesforsomespecifiedfinitetime.Theproblemisthatoneknowsonehasasustainablesystemonlyafterthefact.Thuswhatusuallypassfordefinitionsofsustainabilityareactuallypredictionsofwhatsetofconditionswillactuallyleadtoasustainablesystem. 47Forexamplekeepingharvestratesofpotentiallyrenewableresourcessuchastreesandwildlifebelowratesofnaturalrenewalshouldonecouldargueleadtoasustainablenaturalresourceextractionsystem.Butthatisapredictionnotadefinition.Usuallythereissomuchuncertaintyinourabilitytoestimatenaturalratesofrenewalandourabilitytoobserveandregulateharvestratesthatasimplepredictionsuchasthisisalwayshighlysuspect. Likewisesustainableeconomicdevelopmentcanbeobservedonlyafterthefact.48Mostdefinitionsofsustainabledevelopmentincludeelementsofasustainablescaleoftheeconomyrelativetoitsecologicallifesupportsystem;afairdistributionofresourcesandopportunitiesbetweencurrentandfuturegenerationsaswellasbetweenindividualsinthecurrentgeneration;andanefficientallocationofresourcesthatadequatelyaccountsfornaturalcapital.Notethatthesethreecomponentsofsustainableeconomicdevelopmentareactuallypredictorsofsustainabilityandnotreallyelementsofadefinition.Likeallpredictionstheyareuncertainandaresubjecttomuchdiscussionanddisagreement. 49Thesecondproblemisthatwhenonesaysasystemhasachievedsustainabilityonedoesnotmeananinfinitelifespanbutratheralifespanthatisconsistentwiththesystem’’sexpectedtimeandspacescale.Weexpectanorganismtohavealongerlifespanthespeciestohaveanevenlongerlifespanandtheplanettolastmuchlonger.Butnosystemisexpectedtohaveaninfinitelifespan. Therealproblemsarenotsomuchdefiningthegoalaspredictingwhatpolicieswillleadtoitsachievement.Herethereisampleroomforandneedofvigorousdiscussiondebateanalysisandmodelinginordertodeterminewhichpolicieshavethebestchanceofachievingthegoalofsustainability.50Giventhehugeuncertaintiesinvolveditisofparticularimportanceinthisregardtoselectpoliciesthatareprecautionarythatistheydonottakeunnecessaryrisksthatcoulddecreasethechancesforsustainabilitytheydonotrelyonhoped-fortechnologicalfixesfortheirsuccesses.
Thereismuchdiscussionintheliteraturethesedaysabouthowonedefinessustainabilitysustainabledevelopmentandrelatedconcepts.Manyarguethattheconceptisuselessbecauseitcannotbeadequatelydefined.46Mostofthisdiscussionismisdirectedbecauseitattemptstocasttheproblemasdefinitionalwheninfactitisaproblemofpredictionanditfailstotakeintoaccountthemanytimeandspacescalesoverwhichtheconceptofsustainabilitymustapply.Definingsustainabilityisactuallyquiteeasy:Asustainablesystemisonethatsurvivesforsomespecifiedfinitetime.Theproblemisthatoneknowsonehasasustainablesystemonlyafterthefact.Thuswhatusuallypassfordefinitionsofsustainabilityareactuallypredictionsofwhatsetofconditionswillactuallyleadtoasustainablesystem. 47Forexamplekeepingharvestratesofpotentiallyrenewableresourcessuchastreesandwildlifebelowratesofnaturalrenewalshouldonecouldargueleadtoasustainablenaturalresourceextractionsystem.Butthatisapredictionnotadefinition.Usuallythereissomuchuncertaintyinourabilitytoestimatenaturalratesofrenewalandourabilitytoobserveandregulateharvestratesthatasimplepredictionsuchasthisisalwayshighlysuspect. Likewisesustainableeconomicdevelopmentcanbeobservedonlyafterthefact.48Mostdefinitionsofsustainabledevelopmentincludeelementsofasustainablescaleoftheeconomyrelativetoitsecologicallifesupportsystem;afairdistributionofresourcesandopportunitiesbetweencurrentandfuturegenerationsaswellasbetweenindividualsinthecurrentgeneration;andanefficientallocationofresourcesthatadequatelyaccountsfornaturalcapital.Notethatthesethreecomponentsofsustainableeconomicdevelopmentareactuallypredictorsofsustainabilityandnotreallyelementsofadefinition.Likeallpredictionstheyareuncertainandaresubjecttomuchdiscussionanddisagreement. 49Thesecondproblemisthatwhenonesaysasystemhasachievedsustainabilityonedoesnotmeananinfinitelifespanbutratheralifespanthatisconsistentwiththesystem’’sexpectedtimeandspacescale.Weexpectanorganismtohavealongerlifespanthespeciestohaveanevenlongerlifespanandtheplanettolastmuchlonger.Butnosystemisexpectedtohaveaninfinitelifespan. Therealproblemsarenotsomuchdefiningthegoalaspredictingwhatpolicieswillleadtoitsachievement.Herethereisampleroomforandneedofvigorousdiscussiondebateanalysisandmodelinginordertodeterminewhichpolicieshavethebestchanceofachievingthegoalofsustainability.50Giventhehugeuncertaintiesinvolveditisofparticularimportanceinthisregardtoselectpoliciesthatareprecautionarythatistheydonottakeunnecessaryrisksthatcoulddecreasethechancesforsustainabilitytheydonotrelyonhoped-fortechnologicalfixesfortheirsuccesses.
Thehumanbraincandoalotofwonderfulthings;manyoftheminclude1masteryofcomplexfeedbacksystemswithlong2Forexampleconsiderhowdifficultraisingachildtrulyis.Manyfactorsare3includingthenutritionalphysicalemotionalandmentalconditionofthechildandthefeedbackofthesefactors4thebehaviorofthoseinvolvedinraisingthechild.To5mattersmanyoftheresponsesofthechild/parentsystemtakeyearsto6themselves.Yetbillionsofparentshavesomehow7tofeedclotheprotectnurturehealteachandlovetheirchildren8successfuladulthood. 9allourintuitivesophisticationindealingwithcomplicatedsituationsit’’sa10toseehowpoorlywedealwithsomenewersystemsmostof11broughtaboutbytechnology. BothraisingchildrenandprotectingEarth’’slife-supportsystemsare12oflifeanddeath;inthelongtermtheyareequallyimportant.But13ourbrainsseemfairlywellpreparedforthelong-termprocessofraisingkidsweseemtohave14built-inskillfortakingcareoftheenvironmentthatsupportsusanychildrenwemighthaveandallother15.Itseemsthatthethinkingpartsofourbrainscan’’tdealwithcomplicatedsystemsandtheirlong-term16andthe17partsofourbrainsthatcandealwithcomplexsystemsdon’’thelpusmuchoutsideoftheir18areas.Oneofthegoalsofsystemsscienceistousemathandcomputerstohelppeoplegetbetter19takingcareofEarth’’slife-supportsystems.Thetaskinvolvesteachingourthinkingbrainsabout20complicatedsystemswork.
Thereismuchdiscussionintheliteraturethesedaysabouthowonedefinessustainabilitysustainabledevelopmentandrelatedconcepts.Manyarguethattheconceptisuselessbecauseitcannotbeadequatelydefined.46Mostofthisdiscussionismisdirectedbecauseitattemptstocasttheproblemasdefinitionalwheninfactitisaproblemofpredictionanditfailstotakeintoaccountthemanytimeandspacescalesoverwhichtheconceptofsustainabilitymustapply.Definingsustainabilityisactuallyquiteeasy:Asustainablesystemisonethatsurvivesforsomespecifiedfinitetime.Theproblemisthatoneknowsonehasasustainablesystemonlyafterthefact.Thuswhatusuallypassfordefinitionsofsustainabilityareactuallypredictionsofwhatsetofconditionswillactuallyleadtoasustainablesystem. 47Forexamplekeepingharvestratesofpotentiallyrenewableresourcessuchastreesandwildlifebelowratesofnaturalrenewalshouldonecouldargueleadtoasustainablenaturalresourceextractionsystem.Butthatisapredictionnotadefinition.Usuallythereissomuchuncertaintyinourabilitytoestimatenaturalratesofrenewalandourabilitytoobserveandregulateharvestratesthatasimplepredictionsuchasthisisalwayshighlysuspect. Likewisesustainableeconomicdevelopmentcanbeobservedonlyafterthefact.48Mostdefinitionsofsustainabledevelopmentincludeelementsofasustainablescaleoftheeconomyrelativetoitsecologicallifesupportsystem;afairdistributionofresourcesandopportunitiesbetweencurrentandfuturegenerationsaswellasbetweenindividualsinthecurrentgeneration;andanefficientallocationofresourcesthatadequatelyaccountsfornaturalcapital.Notethatthesethreecomponentsofsustainableeconomicdevelopmentareactuallypredictorsofsustainabilityandnotreallyelementsofadefinition.Likeallpredictionstheyareuncertainandaresubjecttomuchdiscussionanddisagreement. 49Thesecondproblemisthatwhenonesaysasystemhasachievedsustainabilityonedoesnotmeananinfinitelifespanbutratheralifespanthatisconsistentwiththesystem’’sexpectedtimeandspacescale.Weexpectanorganismtohavealongerlifespanthespeciestohaveanevenlongerlifespanandtheplanettolastmuchlonger.Butnosystemisexpectedtohaveaninfinitelifespan. Therealproblemsarenotsomuchdefiningthegoalaspredictingwhatpolicieswillleadtoitsachievement.Herethereisampleroomforandneedofvigorousdiscussiondebateanalysisandmodelinginordertodeterminewhichpolicieshavethebestchanceofachievingthegoalofsustainability.50Giventhehugeuncertaintiesinvolveditisofparticularimportanceinthisregardtoselectpoliciesthatareprecautionarythatistheydonottakeunnecessaryrisksthatcoulddecreasethechancesforsustainabilitytheydonotrelyonhoped-fortechnologicalfixesfortheirsuccesses. Thereismuchdiscussionintheliteraturethesedaysabouthowonedefinessustainabilitysustainabledevelopmentandrelatedconcepts.Manyarguethattheconceptisuselessbecauseitcannotbeadequatelydefined.46Mostofthisdiscussionismisdirectedbecauseitattemptstocasttheproblemasdefinitionalwheninfactitisaproblemofpredictionanditfailstotakeintoaccountthemanytimeandspacescalesoverwhichtheconceptofsustainabilitymustapply.Definingsustainabilityisactuallyquiteeasy:Asustainablesystemisonethatsurvivesforsomespecifiedfinitetime.Theproblemisthatoneknowsonehasasustainablesystemonlyafterthefact.Thuswhatusuallypassfordefinitionsofsustainabilityareactuallypredictionsofwhatsetofconditionswillactuallyleadtoasustainablesystem. 47Forexamplekeepingharvestratesofpotentiallyrenewableresourcessuchastreesandwildlifebelowratesofnaturalrenewalshouldonecouldargueleadtoasustainablenaturalresourceextractionsystem.Butthatisapredictionnotadefinition.Usuallythereissomuchuncertaintyinourabilitytoestimatenaturalratesofrenewalandourabilitytoobserveandregulateharvestratesthatasimplepredictionsuchasthisisalwayshighlysuspect. Likewisesustainableeconomicdevelopmentcanbeobservedonlyafterthefact.48Mostdefinitionsofsustainabledevelopmentincludeelementsofasustainablescaleoftheeconomyrelativetoitsecologicallifesupportsystem;afairdistributionofresourcesandopportunitiesbetweencurrentandfuturegenerationsaswellasbetweenindividualsinthecurrentgeneration;andanefficientallocationofresourcesthatadequatelyaccountsfornaturalcapital.Notethatthesethreecomponentsofsustainableeconomicdevelopmentareactuallypredictorsofsustainabilityandnotreallyelementsofadefinition.Likeallpredictionstheyareuncertainandaresubjecttomuchdiscussionanddisagreement. 49Thesecondproblemisthatwhenonesaysasystemhasachievedsustainabilityonedoesnotmeananinfinitelifespanbutratheralifespanthatisconsistentwiththesystem’’sexpectedtimeandspacescale.Weexpectanorganismtohavealongerlifespanthespeciestohaveanevenlongerlifespanandtheplanettolastmuchlonger.Butnosystemisexpectedtohaveaninfinitelifespan. Therealproblemsarenotsomuchdefiningthegoalaspredictingwhatpolicieswillleadtoitsachievement.Herethereisampleroomforandneedofvigorousdiscussiondebateanalysisandmodelinginordertodeterminewhichpolicieshavethebestchanceofachievingthegoalofsustainability.50Giventhehugeuncertaintiesinvolveditisofparticularimportanceinthisregardtoselectpoliciesthatareprecautionarythatistheydonottakeunnecessaryrisksthatcoulddecreasethechancesforsustainabilitytheydonotrelyonhoped-fortechnologicalfixesfortheirsuccesses.
Ahistoryoflongandeffortlesssuccesscanbeadreadfulhandicapbutifproperlyhandleditmaybecomeadrivingforce.WhentheUnitedStatesenteredjustsuchaglowingperiodaftertheendoftheSecondWorldWarithadamarketeighttimeslargerthananycompetitorgivingitsindustriesunparalleledeconomiesofscale.Itsscientistsweretheworld’’sbestitsworkerswerethemostskilled.AmericaandAmericanswereprosperousbeyondthedreamsoftheEuropeansandAsianswhoseeconomiesthewarhaddestroyed. Itwasinevitablethatthisprimacyshouldhavenarrowedasothercountriesgrewricher.Justasinevitablytheretreatfrompredominanceprovedpainful.Bythemid-1980sAmericanshadfoundthemselvesatalossovertheirfadingindustrialcompetitiveness.SomehugeAmericanindustriessuchasconsumerelectronicshadshrunkorvanishedinthefaceofforeigncompetition.By1987therewasonlyoneAmericantelevisionmakerleftZenith.Nowthereisnone:ZenithwasboughtbySouthKorea’’sLGElectronicsinJuly.Foreign-madecarsandtextilesweresweepingintothedomesticmarket.America’’smachine-toolindustrywasontheropes.ForawhileitlookedasthoughthemakingofsemiconductorswhichAmericahadinventedandwhichsatattheheartofthenewcomputeragewasgoingtobethenextcasualty. Allofthiscausedacrisisofconfidence.Americansstoppedtakingprosperityforgranted.Theybegantobelievethattheirwayofdoingbusinesswasfailingandthattheirincomeswouldthereforeshortlybegintofallaswell.Themid-1980sbroughtoneinquiryafteranotherintothecausesofAmerica’’sindustrialdecline.Theirsometimessensationalfindingswerefilledwithwarningsaboutthegrowingcompetitionfromoverseas. Howthingshavechanged!In1995theUnitedStatescanlookbackonfiveyearsofsolidgrowthwhileJapanhasbeenstruggling.FewAmericansattributethissolelytosuchobviouscausesasadevalueddollarortheturningofthebusinesscycle.Self-doubthasyieldedtoblindpride.Americanindustryhaschangeditsstructurehasgoneonadiethaslearnttobemorequick-wittedaccordingtoRichardCavanaghexecutivedeanofHarvard’’sKennedySchoolofGovernment.ItmakesmeproudtobeanAmericanjusttoseehowourbusinessesareimprovingtheirproductivitysaysStephenMooreoftheCatoInstituteathink-tankinWashingtonD.C.AndWilliamSahlmanoftheHarvardBusinessSchoolbelievesthatpeoplewilllookbackonthisperiodasagoldenageofbusinessmanagementintheUnitedStates. TheU.S.achieveditspredominanceafterWorldWarⅡbecause__________.
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