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Children are getting so fat that they may be the first generation to die before their parents. To...
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Childrenaregettingsofatthattheymaybethefirstgen
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Text3 AskedwhathewoulddotoimproveagovernmenttheancientChinesesageConfuciusansweredthathisfirstmeasurewouldbe"tocorrectlanguage".Hemeantthatifwordsdon’tmeanwhattheyseemtomeanpeoplecannotputanyplanintoactionasintended.Thestateoflanguageatthedawnofthetwenty-firstcenturyappearstobemoreconfusedthanever--thanksinlargeparttotheenormousinfluenceoftelevisionradioandprintmediaoverwhatwetinydesireandbelieve. BenjaminRadfordmanagingeditorofTheSkepticalInquirermagazineoffershundredsofexamplesofdeceptivepracticesinjournalismadvertisingpoliticalactivismpublicrelationsandcharityappeals.Therealdangertothepublicheinsistscomesnotfromoutrightliesabouteventsorindividualsbecauseinmostcasesfactscallultimatelybeprovenandmistakescorrected.Buttheemotionalpowerofimagessoundbitesandsloganscanexertdeepandlastinginfluenceonouropinionsandbehaviorasconsumersvotersandcitizens. ThedetailedcoverageofviolentcrimesdominatinglocalTVnewsshowsseldomincludesanylargercontext.Thecumulativeimpressionleftinthemindsofviewetsisthatviolentcrimeisrampantandontherise.Asaresultmanypeopleliveinfearandmanymoresupporttheideaofever-largerpoliceforcestougherlawsandbiggerprisonswithoutconsideringtheactualcrimeratesintheircommunityoracrossthenation. DramaticincidentslikethesniperattacksintheWashingtonD.C.areainthefallof2002receivesomuchmediaattentionthatagaintheactualnumbersofpeopleaffectedandthelikelihoodofsuchattacksbeingrepeatedanywhereelsebecomewildlyexaggeratedinpeople’sminds.Inthemedia-fueledemotionalstatefollowingsuchspectaculardisasterstheeffortandexpenseofturningschoolsinfolockedfortressesorputtingcamerasoneverystreettomonitorsuspiciousindividualscanseeminsignificantcomparedtothehopeofkeepingourchildrensafefromharm.Yettrulyeffectivemeasuresrequireclearthinkingandclearlywordedpoliciesthatcitizensnotonlylawyersandpoliticians--canunderstand.Toooftenthelongtermfutureimplicationsofnewanticrimelawsandpoliciesarenotevenconsideredintherushtofeelsaferbytakingrapidandvisibleaction. Misleadingpracticesbyadvertisersareanothersubjectofpublicconcern.Governmentshavelonglimitedadsforalcoholandtobaccoproductsandexaminedclaimsbydrugcompaniescarmakersfoodsuppliersandtoymanufacturerstoprotectthepublichealth.Butadvertisingusesemotionalappealstoshifttheviewer’sfocusawayfromfacts.Viewerswhodonottakethetroubletodistinguishbetweenprovableclaimsandpleasantbutmeaninglesswordplayendupbuying"thesizzlenotthesteak"andoftenpayinghigh. AccordingtoBenjaminRadfordtherealdangertothepublicopinionsliesin
Text2 ThehotelsarelullJapanesetouriststhrongthedesignerstoresofWaikikiandtheunemploymentrateisamere3%oftheworkforce.SowhatcouldpossiblyknockHawaiithe"aloha"or"welcome”stateoffitswaveTheansweristhatHawaii’s1.2mresidentsmayonedaygetfedupwithplayinghosttooverseasvisitors7mofthemthisyear. Indeedsomeresidentsarealreadyfedup.KAHEAanallianceofenvironmentalistsanddefendersofnativeHawaiianculturebemoansthepollutioncausedbythecruiseshipsandtheriskposedbythetouristhordestocreaturessuchasthedark-rumpedpetrelandtheOahutreesnailortoplantsliketheMarsileavillosafern.KAHEAhasapoint:theUSFish＆WildlifeServicecurrentlylistssome317speciesincluding273plantsintheHawaiianislandsasthreatenedorendangeredthehighestnumberofanystateinthenation.Eventhestateflowerthehibiscusbrackenridgeiisonthedangerlist.Thelossofspeciessaysonegovernmentreporthasbeen"staggering".AsfortheimpactoftourismOnHawaiiancultureaKAHEAspokeswomanwrylynotestheelementofexploitation:"NativeHawaiiancultureisusedasasellingpoint--cometothisparadisewherebeautifulwomenaredoingthehulaonyourdinnerplate." SowhatelseisnewHawaii’senvironmentandculturehavebeenunderthreateversinceCaptainCookandhisgerm-carryingsailorsdroppedanchorin1778.Foreignimportshaveinevitablyhadanimpactonspeciesthatevolvedoverthemillenniainisolation.Moreoverwithupto25nonnativespeciesarrivingeachyeartheimpactwillcontinue.ButastheUSGeologicalSurveyarguestheimpactcanaddtobiodiversityaswellaslessenit.TherealchallengethereforeisforHawaiitofindabalancebetweenthecostsandthebenefitsofdevelopmentingeneralandtourisminparticular. TheBenefitsarenottobesneezedat.Thestate’sunemploymentratehasbeenbelowthenationalaverageforthepasttwoand-a-halfyears.EconomistsattheUniversityofHawaiireckonthatHawaiians’realpersonalincomeroseby2.8%lastyearwillriseby2.7%thisyearandwillcontinuethrough2007at2.5%.Accordingtothestate’s"strategicplan"forthenextdecadetourismshouldtakemuchofthecreditaccountingdirectlyandindirectlyforsome22%ofthestate’sjobsby2007morethan17%ofitseconomicoutputandaround26%ofitstaxrevenues. Thetroubleisthatthecostscanbehightoo.Asoneeconomistputsit"WehaveaManhattancostoflivingandPeoriawagerates."ThattranslatesintoamedianhousepricetodayontheislandofOahuhometothree-quartersofthestate’spopulationof＄500000andaneedformanyworkerstotakeonmorethanonejob. Whatisthemainideaofthefirstparagraph
[A]Meanwhilestudieshaveshownthatthecarbondioxideconcentrationinouratmospherehasbeensteadilyincreasingsince1958.Eventhoughtherateofemissionsfromfossilfuelshasbeenreducedconcentrationhasrisenconsistently. [B]ProofofwarmingincludesadecreaseintheamountofsnowthatcoverstheNorthernHemisphereasimultaneousdecreaseinArcticSeaicecontinuedmeltingofalpineglaciersandariseinsealevel.RainhasevenbeenreportedforthefirsttimeinAntarcticaandanice-freepatchofoceanaboutamilewidehasrecentlyopenedneartheNorthPole. [C]ButtherealbenefitofEarthHomeswillbethelong-termsustainabilityofourplanet.ItshouldbenosecretthattheplanetisexperiencingunusualWeatherandclimateabnormalities.The10hottestyearsinrecordedhistoryhaveallbeeninthelast15years;the1990swerethehottestdecadeonrecord.TheMid-westernheatwaveof1995killed669peopleinChicago.In1996wehadaseasonofrecordheatspellsand1997wasthesinglewarmestyearonrecord--until1998shatteredglobaltemperaturerecords.Record-hightemperaturesthroughoutthesouthernUnitedStatesduringthesummerof1998forcedtheshutdownofWaltDisneyWorld’swaterparksbecauseofthethreatofaviralencephalitisoutbreak.TheUnitedNationsandinsurersblameunusualweatherforthousandsofdeathsandbillionsofdollarsindamage. [D]In1995thesizeoftheozoneholeoverAntarcticadoubledtoaboutthesizeofEurope.ForthefirsttimeinrecordedhistorytheholestretchedoverpopulatedareasexposingresidentsinsouthernChileandArgentinatoveryhighlevelsofultravioletUVradiation.Studieshaveshownthata1%decreaseinozoneinthestratosphereproducesa2%increaseinUVradiationreachingthegroundposingmoreriskstohumans.IntheUnitedStatesforinstancebetweenathirdandahalfofallcancersareskincancerswidelyblamedonUVexposure.Australiahasthehighestrateofskincancerintheworldwithestimatesthattwooutofthreepeoplewillgetatleastoneskincancerintheirlifetime. [E]"Manyscientistsagreethattheemissionsresultingfromhumanactivitiesaresubstantiallyincreasingtheatmosphericconcentrationofthegreenhousegases"writesJeremyLeggettinhisbookGlobalWarming:TheGreenpeaceReportOxfordUniversityPress1990."Theseincreaseswillenhancethegreenhouseeffectresultinginwarmingoftheearth’ssurface."In1990scientistspredictedthatifgreenhousegasemissionsarenotsharplydecreasedwemightexperiencea1℃to3℃riseinglobaltemperatures.Theysuggestedthatwewouldhavetocutinhalfouruseofcoaloilandgasinordertolowerouremissionsenoughtomaintainconcentrationsofgreenhousegasesatthecurrentlevels. [F]Avarietyofsignificantattractiveshort-termbenefitswilldrivethedevelopmentofmodernself-sufficienthomes.Theseincludesecurityfromsevereweatherclimatechangesandnaturaldisasters;securityfrominfectiousdiseasesandrelatedhealthproblems;afreshandnutritiousdiet;adependablefoodsupply;andsecurityfromglobalunrest. [G]Addtothisscenariothepossibilityofnaturaldisasterssuchasvolcanicactivitycometssolarwindssunspotactivityorearthquakesthatcoulddrasticallyaffectworldsecurity.HowlongisthestabilityoftheplanetgoingtobeimmunefromthesetypesofsignificantoccurrencesWinterstormsandrandomweatherextremessuchasrecord-breakingextremehotcoldandwindsaresignalsthatweshouldactontheresultsofclimatechange.Throughitsinnovationstheself-sufficienthomeisonewayofhelpinglimithumanenvironmentaldegradationandincreasingresourcesustainability. 45
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. 9
BillGatesthebillionaireMicrosoftchairmanwithoutasingleearneduniversitydegreeisbyhissuccessraisingnewdoubtsabouttheworthofthebusinessworld’sfavoriteacademictitletheMBAMasterofBusinessAdministration. 46TheMBAa20th-centuryproductalwayshasbornethemarkoflowlycommerceandgreedonthetree-linedcampusesruledbypurerdisciplinessuchasphilosophyandliterature. Butevenwiththerecessionapparentlycuttingintothehiringofbusinessschoolgraduatesabout79000peopleareexpectedtoreceiveMBAsin1993.47Thisisnearly16timesthenumberofbusinessgraduatesin1960atestimonytothewidespreadassumptionthattheMBAisvitalforyoungmenandwomenwhowanttoruncompaniessomeday. "Ifyouaregoingintothecorporateworlditisstilladisadvantagenottohaveone"saidDonaldMorrisonprofessorofmarketingandmanagementscience."Butinthelastfiveyearsorsowhensomeonesays’ShouldIattempttogetanMBA’theansweralotmoreis:Itdepends." 48ThesuccessofBillGatesandothernon-MBAssuchasthelateSamWaltonofWal-MartStoresInc.hashelpedinspireself-consciousdebatesonbusinessschoolcampusesovertheworthofabusinessdegreeandwhethermanagementskills’canbetaught. TheHarvardBusinessReviewprintedalivelyfictionalexchangeofletterstodramatizecomplaintsaboutbusinessdegreeholders. 49ThearticlecalledMBAhires"extremelydisappointing"andsaid"MBAswanttomoveuptoofasttheydon’tunderstandpoliticsandpeopleandtheyaren’tabletofunctionaspartofateamuntiltheirthirdyear.Butbythenthey’reoutlookingforotherjobs." TheproblemmostparticipantsinthedebateacknowledgeisthattheMBAhasacquiredanauraoffuturefichesandpowerfarbeyonditsactualimportanceandusefulness. Enrollmentinbusinessschoolsexplodedinthe1970sand1980sandcreatedtheassumptionthatnoonewhopursuedabusinesscareercoulddowithoutone.Thegrowthwasfueledbyabacklashagainsttheanti-businessvaluesofthe1960sandbythewoman’smovement. 50BusinesspeoplewhohavehiredorworkedwithMBAssaythosewiththedegreesoftenknowhowtoanalyzesystemsbutarenotsoskillfulatmotivatingpeople."Theydon’tgetalotofgroundinginthepeoplesideofthebusiness"saidJamesShaffervice-presidentandprincipaloftheTowersPerrinmanagementconsultingfirm. 46
Directions:YourfriendMikeisacollegestudentandheiswonderingwhetherheshouldtakeapart-timejobinabigITcompany.Writealettertohimtoofferyouropinionsandsuggestionsontheissue.Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonAnswersheet2.Donotsignyournameattheendoftheletter.UseLiHuainstead.Youdonotneedtowritetheaddress.
Text4 Boldfacedwithahyphenandendingintheadjectival-edwascoinedbyShakespeareinHenryVIPartIwhenLordTalbotrescuinghissononaFrenchbattlefieldspokeofhis"prouddesireofbold-facedVictorie".Itwaspickedupinthe19thcenturybytypesetterstodescribeatype-likeClarendonAntiqueorathickversionofBodoni--thatstoodoutconfidentlyevenimpudentlyfromthepage.Theadjectivewasusedinan1880articleinTheNewYorkTimeswewerehyphenatedthen:"Oneofthehandbills"distributedbytheKuKluxKlannotedadisapprovingreporterwas"printedinbold-facedtypeonyellowpaper". Newspapergossipcolumnistsinthe30’stocatchthereader’seyebeganusingthisboldtypeforthenamesthatmadenewsinwhatwasthencalled"cafesociety"incontrastto"high"societywhosemembersclaimedtoprefertostayoutofthosecolumns. Inourtimethetypefacemetaphorwasappliedtoasetoffamoushumanfaces.Afashionreporter--JohnDukaofTheTimes--wasanearlyuserofthephraseashewroteacerbicallyonSept.221981:"AttheoverheatedpartiesatCalvinKlein’sapartmentSaksFifthAvenueBergdorfGoodmanandStudio54thebold-facednamessaidtheweekhadbeensocrammedthattheywerefeelingalittleunderthebreathyouknow." RitaKempleyofTheWashingtonPostnotedin1987thesought-afterstatusof"abold-facednameinPeoplemagazine";by1999AlanPeppardofTheDallasMorningNewsrecalledtoTexasMonthlythathebeganwitha"socialcolumn"but"nowweliveinanageofcelebrityandthereareveryfewpeoplewhocareaboutwhatthedebutantesaredoing.SoIcallitcelebritysocietyfamouspeoplerichpeoplebold-facednames". TheNewYorkTimeswhichneverhaddoesnothaveandisgrimlydeterminednevertohavea"gossipcolumn"introduceda"peoplecolumn"in2001.WhenitscurrenteditorJoyceWadlertookasix-weekbreakrecentlyshesubheadedthatitemwithaself-mocking"AirKiss!Smooch!Ciao!"Thecolumncoversthedoingsofcelebritiesmediabiggiesfashionplatesshow-bizstarshautmondenotablesperennialpersonagesandothersfamousfortheirfame.Itsconfidentfashionableandmodernmonikerbecamethedrivingforcebehindtherecentpopularizationofthephrasewiththeformercompoundadjectivenowanattributivenoun:Bold-facedNames. Thefirstpersonwhousedthewordboldfacedis
Text1 IfthevariousadvocatesoftheconflictingoptionsareallsmartexperiencedandwellinformedwhydotheydisagreesocompletelyWouldn’ttheyallhavethoughttheissuethroughcarefullyandcometoapproximatelythesame"best"--conclusion Theanswertothatcrucialquestionliesinthestructureofthehumanbrainandthewayitprocessesinformation. Mosthumanbeingsactuallydecidebeforetheythink.Whenanyhumanbeing--executivespecializedexpertorpersoninthestree--encountersacomplexissueandformsanopinionoftenwithinamatterofsecondshowthoroughlyhasheorsheexploredtheimplicationsofthevariouscoursesofactionAnswer:notverythoroughly.Veryfewpeoplenomatterhowintelligentorexperiencedcantakeinventoryofthemanybranchingpossibilitiespossibleoutcomessideeffectsandundesiredconsequencesofapolicyoracourseofactioninamatterofseconds.Yetthosewhopridethemselvesonbeingdecisiveoftentrytodojustthat.Andoncetheirbrainslockontoanopinionmostoftheirthinkingthereafterconsistsoffindingsupportforit. Averyserioussideeffectofargumentativedecisionmakingcanbealackofsupportforthechosencourseofactiononthepartofthe"losing"faction.Whenonefactionwinsthemeetingandtheothersseethemselvesaslosingthebattleoftendoesn’tendwhenthemeetingends.Angerresentmentandjealousymayleadthemtosabotagethedecisionlaterortoreopenthedebateatlatermeetings. Thereisabetterway.AsphilosopherAldousHuxleysaid"Itisn’twhoisrightbutwhatisrightthatcounts."Thestructured-inquirymethodoffersabetteralternativetoargumentativedecisionmakingbydebate.WiththehelpoftheInternetandwirelesscomputertechnologythegapbetweenexpertsandexecutivesisnowbeingdramaticallyclosed.Byactuallyputtingthebrakesonthethinkingprocessslowingitdownandorganizingtheflowoflogicit’spossibletocreatealevelofclaritythatsheerargumentationcannevermatch. Thestructured-inquiryprocessintroducesalevelofconceptualclaritybyorganizingthecontributionsoftheexpertsthenbringstheexpertsandthedecisionmakersclosertogether.Althoughitisn’tpossibleornecessaryforapresidentorprimeministertolisteninoneveryintelligenceanalysismeetingit’spossibletoorganizetheexperts’informationtogivethedecisionmakermuchgreaterinsightastoitsmeaning.Thisprocessmaysomewhatresembleamarketingfocusgroup;it’sasimpleremarkablycleverwaytobringdecisionmakersclosertothesourceoftheexpertinformationandopinionsonwhichtheymustbasetheirdecisions. Fromthefirstthreeparagraphswecanlearnthat
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. 7
Text2 ThehotelsarelullJapanesetouriststhrongthedesignerstoresofWaikikiandtheunemploymentrateisamere3%oftheworkforce.SowhatcouldpossiblyknockHawaiithe"aloha"or"welcome”stateoffitswaveTheansweristhatHawaii’s1.2mresidentsmayonedaygetfedupwithplayinghosttooverseasvisitors7mofthemthisyear. Indeedsomeresidentsarealreadyfedup.KAHEAanallianceofenvironmentalistsanddefendersofnativeHawaiianculturebemoansthepollutioncausedbythecruiseshipsandtheriskposedbythetouristhordestocreaturessuchasthedark-rumpedpetrelandtheOahutreesnailortoplantsliketheMarsileavillosafern.KAHEAhasapoint:theUSFish＆WildlifeServicecurrentlylistssome317speciesincluding273plantsintheHawaiianislandsasthreatenedorendangeredthehighestnumberofanystateinthenation.Eventhestateflowerthehibiscusbrackenridgeiisonthedangerlist.Thelossofspeciessaysonegovernmentreporthasbeen"staggering".AsfortheimpactoftourismOnHawaiiancultureaKAHEAspokeswomanwrylynotestheelementofexploitation:"NativeHawaiiancultureisusedasasellingpoint--cometothisparadisewherebeautifulwomenaredoingthehulaonyourdinnerplate." SowhatelseisnewHawaii’senvironmentandculturehavebeenunderthreateversinceCaptainCookandhisgerm-carryingsailorsdroppedanchorin1778.Foreignimportshaveinevitablyhadanimpactonspeciesthatevolvedoverthemillenniainisolation.Moreoverwithupto25nonnativespeciesarrivingeachyeartheimpactwillcontinue.ButastheUSGeologicalSurveyarguestheimpactcanaddtobiodiversityaswellaslessenit.TherealchallengethereforeisforHawaiitofindabalancebetweenthecostsandthebenefitsofdevelopmentingeneralandtourisminparticular. TheBenefitsarenottobesneezedat.Thestate’sunemploymentratehasbeenbelowthenationalaverageforthepasttwoand-a-halfyears.EconomistsattheUniversityofHawaiireckonthatHawaiians’realpersonalincomeroseby2.8%lastyearwillriseby2.7%thisyearandwillcontinuethrough2007at2.5%.Accordingtothestate’s"strategicplan"forthenextdecadetourismshouldtakemuchofthecreditaccountingdirectlyandindirectlyforsome22%ofthestate’sjobsby2007morethan17%ofitseconomicoutputandaround26%ofitstaxrevenues. Thetroubleisthatthecostscanbehightoo.Asoneeconomistputsit"WehaveaManhattancostoflivingandPeoriawagerates."ThattranslatesintoamedianhousepricetodayontheislandofOahuhometothree-quartersofthestate’spopulationof＄500000andaneedformanyworkerstotakeonmorethanonejob. AccordingtothepassageallthesefollowingareproblemsresultingfromthetourismEXCEPT
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. 11
Text3 AskedwhathewoulddotoimproveagovernmenttheancientChinesesageConfuciusansweredthathisfirstmeasurewouldbe"tocorrectlanguage".Hemeantthatifwordsdon’tmeanwhattheyseemtomeanpeoplecannotputanyplanintoactionasintended.Thestateoflanguageatthedawnofthetwenty-firstcenturyappearstobemoreconfusedthanever--thanksinlargeparttotheenormousinfluenceoftelevisionradioandprintmediaoverwhatwetinydesireandbelieve. BenjaminRadfordmanagingeditorofTheSkepticalInquirermagazineoffershundredsofexamplesofdeceptivepracticesinjournalismadvertisingpoliticalactivismpublicrelationsandcharityappeals.Therealdangertothepublicheinsistscomesnotfromoutrightliesabouteventsorindividualsbecauseinmostcasesfactscallultimatelybeprovenandmistakescorrected.Buttheemotionalpowerofimagessoundbitesandsloganscanexertdeepandlastinginfluenceonouropinionsandbehaviorasconsumersvotersandcitizens. ThedetailedcoverageofviolentcrimesdominatinglocalTVnewsshowsseldomincludesanylargercontext.Thecumulativeimpressionleftinthemindsofviewetsisthatviolentcrimeisrampantandontherise.Asaresultmanypeopleliveinfearandmanymoresupporttheideaofever-largerpoliceforcestougherlawsandbiggerprisonswithoutconsideringtheactualcrimeratesintheircommunityoracrossthenation. DramaticincidentslikethesniperattacksintheWashingtonD.C.areainthefallof2002receivesomuchmediaattentionthatagaintheactualnumbersofpeopleaffectedandthelikelihoodofsuchattacksbeingrepeatedanywhereelsebecomewildlyexaggeratedinpeople’sminds.Inthemedia-fueledemotionalstatefollowingsuchspectaculardisasterstheeffortandexpenseofturningschoolsinfolockedfortressesorputtingcamerasoneverystreettomonitorsuspiciousindividualscanseeminsignificantcomparedtothehopeofkeepingourchildrensafefromharm.Yettrulyeffectivemeasuresrequireclearthinkingandclearlywordedpoliciesthatcitizensnotonlylawyersandpoliticians--canunderstand.Toooftenthelongtermfutureimplicationsofnewanticrimelawsandpoliciesarenotevenconsideredintherushtofeelsaferbytakingrapidandvisibleaction. Misleadingpracticesbyadvertisersareanothersubjectofpublicconcern.Governmentshavelonglimitedadsforalcoholandtobaccoproductsandexaminedclaimsbydrugcompaniescarmakersfoodsuppliersandtoymanufacturerstoprotectthepublichealth.Butadvertisingusesemotionalappealstoshifttheviewer’sfocusawayfromfacts.Viewerswhodonottakethetroubletodistinguishbetweenprovableclaimsandpleasantbutmeaninglesswordplayendupbuying"thesizzlenotthesteak"andoftenpayinghigh. Confuciusiscitedbytheauthorinthefirstparagraphtoimplythat
Ithasbeennecessarytoreferrepeatedlytothe.effectsofthetwoworldwarsinpromotingallkindofinnovation.Itshouldbe1alsothattechnologicalinnovationshave2thecharacterofwaritselfbythe3ofnewmechanicalandchemicaldevice.OneweapondevelopedduringWorldWarⅡ4aspecialmention.The5ofrocketpropulsionswaswellknownearlieranditspossibilitiesasa6ofachievingspeedssufficienttoescapefromtheEarth’sgravitationalpullhadbeen7bytheRussianandtheAmericanscientists.Thelatterbuiltexperimentalliquid-fuelledrocketsin1926.8agroupofGermanandRomanianpioneerswasworking9thesamelinesandinthe1930sitwasthisteamthatdevelopedarocket10ofdeliveringawarheadhundredsofmilesaway.Reachingaheightofover100milestheV-2rocket11thebeginningoftheSpaceAgeandmembersofitsdesignteamwere12inboththeSovietandUnitedStatesspaceprogramsafterthewar. Technologyhadatremendoussocial13intheperiod1900-1945.Theautomobileandelectricpower14radicallychangedboththescaleandthequalityof20th-centurylife15aprocessofrapidurbanizationandavirtualrevolution16livingthroughmassproductionofhouseholdgoodsand17 Therapiddevelopmentoftheairplanethecinemaandradiomadetheworldseemsuddenlysmallerandmore18.Thedevelopmentofmanyproductsofthechemicalindustryfurthertransformedthelifeofmostpeople.Intheyears191945theconstructiveandcreativeopportunitiesofmoderntechnologycouldbe20althoughtheprocesshasnotbeenwithoutitsproblems. ReadthefollowingtextChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.3
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. 17
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. 3
Text4 Boldfacedwithahyphenandendingintheadjectival-edwascoinedbyShakespeareinHenryVIPartIwhenLordTalbotrescuinghissononaFrenchbattlefieldspokeofhis"prouddesireofbold-facedVictorie".Itwaspickedupinthe19thcenturybytypesetterstodescribeatype-likeClarendonAntiqueorathickversionofBodoni--thatstoodoutconfidentlyevenimpudentlyfromthepage.Theadjectivewasusedinan1880articleinTheNewYorkTimeswewerehyphenatedthen:"Oneofthehandbills"distributedbytheKuKluxKlannotedadisapprovingreporterwas"printedinbold-facedtypeonyellowpaper". Newspapergossipcolumnistsinthe30’stocatchthereader’seyebeganusingthisboldtypeforthenamesthatmadenewsinwhatwasthencalled"cafesociety"incontrastto"high"societywhosemembersclaimedtoprefertostayoutofthosecolumns. Inourtimethetypefacemetaphorwasappliedtoasetoffamoushumanfaces.Afashionreporter--JohnDukaofTheTimes--wasanearlyuserofthephraseashewroteacerbicallyonSept.221981:"AttheoverheatedpartiesatCalvinKlein’sapartmentSaksFifthAvenueBergdorfGoodmanandStudio54thebold-facednamessaidtheweekhadbeensocrammedthattheywerefeelingalittleunderthebreathyouknow." RitaKempleyofTheWashingtonPostnotedin1987thesought-afterstatusof"abold-facednameinPeoplemagazine";by1999AlanPeppardofTheDallasMorningNewsrecalledtoTexasMonthlythathebeganwitha"socialcolumn"but"nowweliveinanageofcelebrityandthereareveryfewpeoplewhocareaboutwhatthedebutantesaredoing.SoIcallitcelebritysocietyfamouspeoplerichpeoplebold-facednames". TheNewYorkTimeswhichneverhaddoesnothaveandisgrimlydeterminednevertohavea"gossipcolumn"introduceda"peoplecolumn"in2001.WhenitscurrenteditorJoyceWadlertookasix-weekbreakrecentlyshesubheadedthatitemwithaself-mocking"AirKiss!Smooch!Ciao!"Thecolumncoversthedoingsofcelebritiesmediabiggiesfashionplatesshow-bizstarshautmondenotablesperennialpersonagesandothersfamousfortheirfame.Itsconfidentfashionableandmodernmonikerbecamethedrivingforcebehindtherecentpopularizationofthephrasewiththeformercompoundadjectivenowanattributivenoun:Bold-facedNames. Whichofthefollowingmayserveasthebesttitleofthepassage
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. 13
Languageswillcontinuetodiverge.EvenifEnglishweretobecometheuniversallanguageitwouldstilltakemanydifferentforms.46IndeedthesamecouldhappentoEnglishashashappenedtoChinese:alanguageofintellectualswhichdoesn’tvaryhugelyalongsidealargenumberofvariantsusedbylocalpeoples. Wewillcontinuetoteachotherlanguagesinsomeformandnotjustforreasonsofpracticality.Learningalanguageisgoodforyourmentalhealth;itforcesyoutounderstandanotherculturalandintellectualsystem.SoIhopeBritisheducationwilldevelopamorerationalapproachtotheforeignlanguagesavailabletostudentsinlinewiththeirpoliticalimportance.Becausesomanypeoplebelieveit’snolongerimportanttoknowanotherlanguageIfearthattimedevotedtolanguageteachinginschoolsmaywellcontinuetodecline.47Butyoucanarguethatlearninganotherlanguagewellismoretaxingthansaylearningtoplaychesswell—itinvolvessensitivitytoasetofcomplicatedrulesandalsotocontext. Technologywillcertainlymakeadifferencetotheuseofforeignlanguages.48Computersmayforinstancealleviatethedrudgerythatavasttranslationrepresents.Butnoonewhohasseenacomputertranslationwillthinkitcansubstituteforliveknowledgeofthedifferentlanguages.Amachinewillalwaysbebehindthetimes.49Stillmoreimportantisthefactthatnocomputerwillevergetattheassociationsbeyondthewordsassociationsthatmaynotbeexpressedbutwhichcarrymuchofthemeaning.InlanguageslikeArabicthatcontextisveryimportant.Languagescomewithheavyculturalbaggagetoo--inFrenchorGermanifyoumisstheculturalreferencesbehindawordyou’reverylikelytobemissingthemeaning.Itwillbeveryhardtoteachallthattoacomputer. 50AllthepredictionsarethatEnglishwillbespokenbyadecliningproportionoftheworld’spopulationinthe21stcentury.Idon’tthinkforeignlanguageswillreallybecomelessimportantbuttheymightbeperceivedtobe—andthatwouldintheendbeaverybadthing. Stillmoreimportantisthefactthatnocomputerwillevergetattheassociationsbeyondthewordsassociationsthatmaynotbeexpressedbutwhichcarrymuchofthemeaning
[A]Meanwhilestudieshaveshownthatthecarbondioxideconcentrationinouratmospherehasbeensteadilyincreasingsince1958.Eventhoughtherateofemissionsfromfossilfuelshasbeenreducedconcentrationhasrisenconsistently. [B]ProofofwarmingincludesadecreaseintheamountofsnowthatcoverstheNorthernHemisphereasimultaneousdecreaseinArcticSeaicecontinuedmeltingofalpineglaciersandariseinsealevel.RainhasevenbeenreportedforthefirsttimeinAntarcticaandanice-freepatchofoceanaboutamilewidehasrecentlyopenedneartheNorthPole. [C]ButtherealbenefitofEarthHomeswillbethelong-termsustainabilityofourplanet.ItshouldbenosecretthattheplanetisexperiencingunusualWeatherandclimateabnormalities.The10hottestyearsinrecordedhistoryhaveallbeeninthelast15years;the1990swerethehottestdecadeonrecord.TheMid-westernheatwaveof1995killed669peopleinChicago.In1996wehadaseasonofrecordheatspellsand1997wasthesinglewarmestyearonrecord--until1998shatteredglobaltemperaturerecords.Record-hightemperaturesthroughoutthesouthernUnitedStatesduringthesummerof1998forcedtheshutdownofWaltDisneyWorld’swaterparksbecauseofthethreatofaviralencephalitisoutbreak.TheUnitedNationsandinsurersblameunusualweatherforthousandsofdeathsandbillionsofdollarsindamage. [D]In1995thesizeoftheozoneholeoverAntarcticadoubledtoaboutthesizeofEurope.ForthefirsttimeinrecordedhistorytheholestretchedoverpopulatedareasexposingresidentsinsouthernChileandArgentinatoveryhighlevelsofultravioletUVradiation.Studieshaveshownthata1%decreaseinozoneinthestratosphereproducesa2%increaseinUVradiationreachingthegroundposingmoreriskstohumans.IntheUnitedStatesforinstancebetweenathirdandahalfofallcancersareskincancerswidelyblamedonUVexposure.Australiahasthehighestrateofskincancerintheworldwithestimatesthattwooutofthreepeoplewillgetatleastoneskincancerintheirlifetime. [E]"Manyscientistsagreethattheemissionsresultingfromhumanactivitiesaresubstantiallyincreasingtheatmosphericconcentrationofthegreenhousegases"writesJeremyLeggettinhisbookGlobalWarming:TheGreenpeaceReportOxfordUniversityPress1990."Theseincreaseswillenhancethegreenhouseeffectresultinginwarmingoftheearth’ssurface."In1990scientistspredictedthatifgreenhousegasemissionsarenotsharplydecreasedwemightexperiencea1℃to3℃riseinglobaltemperatures.Theysuggestedthatwewouldhavetocutinhalfouruseofcoaloilandgasinordertolowerouremissionsenoughtomaintainconcentrationsofgreenhousegasesatthecurrentlevels. [F]Avarietyofsignificantattractiveshort-termbenefitswilldrivethedevelopmentofmodernself-sufficienthomes.Theseincludesecurityfromsevereweatherclimatechangesandnaturaldisasters;securityfrominfectiousdiseasesandrelatedhealthproblems;afreshandnutritiousdiet;adependablefoodsupply;andsecurityfromglobalunrest. [G]Addtothisscenariothepossibilityofnaturaldisasterssuchasvolcanicactivitycometssolarwindssunspotactivityorearthquakesthatcoulddrasticallyaffectworldsecurity.HowlongisthestabilityoftheplanetgoingtobeimmunefromthesetypesofsignificantoccurrencesWinterstormsandrandomweatherextremessuchasrecord-breakingextremehotcoldandwindsaresignalsthatweshouldactontheresultsofclimatechange.Throughitsinnovationstheself-sufficienthomeisonewayofhelpinglimithumanenvironmentaldegradationandincreasingresourcesustainability. 41
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. 15
Text1 IfthevariousadvocatesoftheconflictingoptionsareallsmartexperiencedandwellinformedwhydotheydisagreesocompletelyWouldn’ttheyallhavethoughttheissuethroughcarefullyandcometoapproximatelythesame"best"--conclusion Theanswertothatcrucialquestionliesinthestructureofthehumanbrainandthewayitprocessesinformation. Mosthumanbeingsactuallydecidebeforetheythink.Whenanyhumanbeing--executivespecializedexpertorpersoninthestree--encountersacomplexissueandformsanopinionoftenwithinamatterofsecondshowthoroughlyhasheorsheexploredtheimplicationsofthevariouscoursesofactionAnswer:notverythoroughly.Veryfewpeoplenomatterhowintelligentorexperiencedcantakeinventoryofthemanybranchingpossibilitiespossibleoutcomessideeffectsandundesiredconsequencesofapolicyoracourseofactioninamatterofseconds.Yetthosewhopridethemselvesonbeingdecisiveoftentrytodojustthat.Andoncetheirbrainslockontoanopinionmostoftheirthinkingthereafterconsistsoffindingsupportforit. Averyserioussideeffectofargumentativedecisionmakingcanbealackofsupportforthechosencourseofactiononthepartofthe"losing"faction.Whenonefactionwinsthemeetingandtheothersseethemselvesaslosingthebattleoftendoesn’tendwhenthemeetingends.Angerresentmentandjealousymayleadthemtosabotagethedecisionlaterortoreopenthedebateatlatermeetings. Thereisabetterway.AsphilosopherAldousHuxleysaid"Itisn’twhoisrightbutwhatisrightthatcounts."Thestructured-inquirymethodoffersabetteralternativetoargumentativedecisionmakingbydebate.WiththehelpoftheInternetandwirelesscomputertechnologythegapbetweenexpertsandexecutivesisnowbeingdramaticallyclosed.Byactuallyputtingthebrakesonthethinkingprocessslowingitdownandorganizingtheflowoflogicit’spossibletocreatealevelofclaritythatsheerargumentationcannevermatch. Thestructured-inquiryprocessintroducesalevelofconceptualclaritybyorganizingthecontributionsoftheexpertsthenbringstheexpertsandthedecisionmakersclosertogether.Althoughitisn’tpossibleornecessaryforapresidentorprimeministertolisteninoneveryintelligenceanalysismeetingit’spossibletoorganizetheexperts’informationtogivethedecisionmakermuchgreaterinsightastoitsmeaning.Thisprocessmaysomewhatresembleamarketingfocusgroup;it’sasimpleremarkablycleverwaytobringdecisionmakersclosertothesourceoftheexpertinformationandopinionsonwhichtheymustbasetheirdecisions. AldousHuxley'sremarkimpliesthat
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. 1
Directions:Youareacollegegraduateandtrytowritealettertoaforeignuniversityexpressingyourdesireofgettingadmitted.Writealetterofself-introductionbasedonthefollowingoutline:1anintroductionofyoureducationbackgroundandhopes2givingyourreasonstoattendthisuniversity3andaskingforapplicationformsfinancialaidsetc..Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter.UseLiMinginstead.Youdonotneedtowriteyouraddress.
Ithasbeennecessarytoreferrepeatedlytothe.effectsofthetwoworldwarsinpromotingallkindofinnovation.Itshouldbe1alsothattechnologicalinnovationshave2thecharacterofwaritselfbythe3ofnewmechanicalandchemicaldevice.OneweapondevelopedduringWorldWarⅡ4aspecialmention.The5ofrocketpropulsionswaswellknownearlieranditspossibilitiesasa6ofachievingspeedssufficienttoescapefromtheEarth’sgravitationalpullhadbeen7bytheRussianandtheAmericanscientists.Thelatterbuiltexperimentalliquid-fuelledrocketsin1926.8agroupofGermanandRomanianpioneerswasworking9thesamelinesandinthe1930sitwasthisteamthatdevelopedarocket10ofdeliveringawarheadhundredsofmilesaway.Reachingaheightofover100milestheV-2rocket11thebeginningoftheSpaceAgeandmembersofitsdesignteamwere12inboththeSovietandUnitedStatesspaceprogramsafterthewar. Technologyhadatremendoussocial13intheperiod1900-1945.Theautomobileandelectricpower14radicallychangedboththescaleandthequalityof20th-centurylife15aprocessofrapidurbanizationandavirtualrevolution16livingthroughmassproductionofhouseholdgoodsand17 Therapiddevelopmentoftheairplanethecinemaandradiomadetheworldseemsuddenlysmallerandmore18.Thedevelopmentofmanyproductsofthechemicalindustryfurthertransformedthelifeofmostpeople.Intheyears191945theconstructiveandcreativeopportunitiesofmoderntechnologycouldbe20althoughtheprocesshasnotbeenwithoutitsproblems. ReadthefollowingtextChoosethebestwordsforeachnumberedblankandmarkABCorDonANSWERSHEET1.1
[A]Meanwhilestudieshaveshownthatthecarbondioxideconcentrationinouratmospherehasbeensteadilyincreasingsince1958.Eventhoughtherateofemissionsfromfossilfuelshasbeenreducedconcentrationhasrisenconsistently. [B]ProofofwarmingincludesadecreaseintheamountofsnowthatcoverstheNorthernHemisphereasimultaneousdecreaseinArcticSeaicecontinuedmeltingofalpineglaciersandariseinsealevel.RainhasevenbeenreportedforthefirsttimeinAntarcticaandanice-freepatchofoceanaboutamilewidehasrecentlyopenedneartheNorthPole. [C]ButtherealbenefitofEarthHomeswillbethelong-termsustainabilityofourplanet.ItshouldbenosecretthattheplanetisexperiencingunusualWeatherandclimateabnormalities.The10hottestyearsinrecordedhistoryhaveallbeeninthelast15years;the1990swerethehottestdecadeonrecord.TheMid-westernheatwaveof1995killed669peopleinChicago.In1996wehadaseasonofrecordheatspellsand1997wasthesinglewarmestyearonrecord--until1998shatteredglobaltemperaturerecords.Record-hightemperaturesthroughoutthesouthernUnitedStatesduringthesummerof1998forcedtheshutdownofWaltDisneyWorld’swaterparksbecauseofthethreatofaviralencephalitisoutbreak.TheUnitedNationsandinsurersblameunusualweatherforthousandsofdeathsandbillionsofdollarsindamage. [D]In1995thesizeoftheozoneholeoverAntarcticadoubledtoaboutthesizeofEurope.ForthefirsttimeinrecordedhistorytheholestretchedoverpopulatedareasexposingresidentsinsouthernChileandArgentinatoveryhighlevelsofultravioletUVradiation.Studieshaveshownthata1%decreaseinozoneinthestratosphereproducesa2%increaseinUVradiationreachingthegroundposingmoreriskstohumans.IntheUnitedStatesforinstancebetweenathirdandahalfofallcancersareskincancerswidelyblamedonUVexposure.Australiahasthehighestrateofskincancerintheworldwithestimatesthattwooutofthreepeoplewillgetatleastoneskincancerintheirlifetime. [E]"Manyscientistsagreethattheemissionsresultingfromhumanactivitiesaresubstantiallyincreasingtheatmosphericconcentrationofthegreenhousegases"writesJeremyLeggettinhisbookGlobalWarming:TheGreenpeaceReportOxfordUniversityPress1990."Theseincreaseswillenhancethegreenhouseeffectresultinginwarmingoftheearth’ssurface."In1990scientistspredictedthatifgreenhousegasemissionsarenotsharplydecreasedwemightexperiencea1℃to3℃riseinglobaltemperatures.Theysuggestedthatwewouldhavetocutinhalfouruseofcoaloilandgasinordertolowerouremissionsenoughtomaintainconcentrationsofgreenhousegasesatthecurrentlevels. [F]Avarietyofsignificantattractiveshort-termbenefitswilldrivethedevelopmentofmodernself-sufficienthomes.Theseincludesecurityfromsevereweatherclimatechangesandnaturaldisasters;securityfrominfectiousdiseasesandrelatedhealthproblems;afreshandnutritiousdiet;adependablefoodsupply;andsecurityfromglobalunrest. [G]Addtothisscenariothepossibilityofnaturaldisasterssuchasvolcanicactivitycometssolarwindssunspotactivityorearthquakesthatcoulddrasticallyaffectworldsecurity.HowlongisthestabilityoftheplanetgoingtobeimmunefromthesetypesofsignificantoccurrencesWinterstormsandrandomweatherextremessuchasrecord-breakingextremehotcoldandwindsaresignalsthatweshouldactontheresultsofclimatechange.Throughitsinnovationstheself-sufficienthomeisonewayofhelpinglimithumanenvironmentaldegradationandincreasingresourcesustainability. 43
Text3 AskedwhathewoulddotoimproveagovernmenttheancientChinesesageConfuciusansweredthathisfirstmeasurewouldbe"tocorrectlanguage".Hemeantthatifwordsdon’tmeanwhattheyseemtomeanpeoplecannotputanyplanintoactionasintended.Thestateoflanguageatthedawnofthetwenty-firstcenturyappearstobemoreconfusedthanever--thanksinlargeparttotheenormousinfluenceoftelevisionradioandprintmediaoverwhatwetinydesireandbelieve. BenjaminRadfordmanagingeditorofTheSkepticalInquirermagazineoffershundredsofexamplesofdeceptivepracticesinjournalismadvertisingpoliticalactivismpublicrelationsandcharityappeals.Therealdangertothepublicheinsistscomesnotfromoutrightliesabouteventsorindividualsbecauseinmostcasesfactscallultimatelybeprovenandmistakescorrected.Buttheemotionalpowerofimagessoundbitesandsloganscanexertdeepandlastinginfluenceonouropinionsandbehaviorasconsumersvotersandcitizens. ThedetailedcoverageofviolentcrimesdominatinglocalTVnewsshowsseldomincludesanylargercontext.Thecumulativeimpressionleftinthemindsofviewetsisthatviolentcrimeisrampantandontherise.Asaresultmanypeopleliveinfearandmanymoresupporttheideaofever-largerpoliceforcestougherlawsandbiggerprisonswithoutconsideringtheactualcrimeratesintheircommunityoracrossthenation. DramaticincidentslikethesniperattacksintheWashingtonD.C.areainthefallof2002receivesomuchmediaattentionthatagaintheactualnumbersofpeopleaffectedandthelikelihoodofsuchattacksbeingrepeatedanywhereelsebecomewildlyexaggeratedinpeople’sminds.Inthemedia-fueledemotionalstatefollowingsuchspectaculardisasterstheeffortandexpenseofturningschoolsinfolockedfortressesorputtingcamerasoneverystreettomonitorsuspiciousindividualscanseeminsignificantcomparedtothehopeofkeepingourchildrensafefromharm.Yettrulyeffectivemeasuresrequireclearthinkingandclearlywordedpoliciesthatcitizensnotonlylawyersandpoliticians--canunderstand.Toooftenthelongtermfutureimplicationsofnewanticrimelawsandpoliciesarenotevenconsideredintherushtofeelsaferbytakingrapidandvisibleaction. Misleadingpracticesbyadvertisersareanothersubjectofpublicconcern.Governmentshavelonglimitedadsforalcoholandtobaccoproductsandexaminedclaimsbydrugcompaniescarmakersfoodsuppliersandtoymanufacturerstoprotectthepublichealth.Butadvertisingusesemotionalappealstoshifttheviewer’sfocusawayfromfacts.Viewerswhodonottakethetroubletodistinguishbetweenprovableclaimsandpleasantbutmeaninglesswordplayendupbuying"thesizzlenotthesteak"andoftenpayinghigh. Accordingtotheauthorthetrulyeffectivemeasuresare
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. 19
BillGatesthebillionaireMicrosoftchairmanwithoutasingleearneduniversitydegreeisbyhissuccessraisingnewdoubtsabouttheworthofthebusinessworld’sfavoriteacademictitletheMBAMasterofBusinessAdministration. 46TheMBAa20th-centuryproductalwayshasbornethemarkoflowlycommerceandgreedonthetree-linedcampusesruledbypurerdisciplinessuchasphilosophyandliterature. Butevenwiththerecessionapparentlycuttingintothehiringofbusinessschoolgraduatesabout79000peopleareexpectedtoreceiveMBAsin1993.47Thisisnearly16timesthenumberofbusinessgraduatesin1960atestimonytothewidespreadassumptionthattheMBAisvitalforyoungmenandwomenwhowanttoruncompaniessomeday. "Ifyouaregoingintothecorporateworlditisstilladisadvantagenottohaveone"saidDonaldMorrisonprofessorofmarketingandmanagementscience."Butinthelastfiveyearsorsowhensomeonesays’ShouldIattempttogetanMBA’theansweralotmoreis:Itdepends." 48ThesuccessofBillGatesandothernon-MBAssuchasthelateSamWaltonofWal-MartStoresInc.hashelpedinspireself-consciousdebatesonbusinessschoolcampusesovertheworthofabusinessdegreeandwhethermanagementskills’canbetaught. TheHarvardBusinessReviewprintedalivelyfictionalexchangeofletterstodramatizecomplaintsaboutbusinessdegreeholders. 49ThearticlecalledMBAhires"extremelydisappointing"andsaid"MBAswanttomoveuptoofasttheydon’tunderstandpoliticsandpeopleandtheyaren’tabletofunctionaspartofateamuntiltheirthirdyear.Butbythenthey’reoutlookingforotherjobs." TheproblemmostparticipantsinthedebateacknowledgeisthattheMBAhasacquiredanauraoffuturefichesandpowerfarbeyonditsactualimportanceandusefulness. Enrollmentinbusinessschoolsexplodedinthe1970sand1980sandcreatedtheassumptionthatnoonewhopursuedabusinesscareercoulddowithoutone.Thegrowthwasfueledbyabacklashagainsttheanti-businessvaluesofthe1960sandbythewoman’smovement. 50BusinesspeoplewhohavehiredorworkedwithMBAssaythosewiththedegreesoftenknowhowtoanalyzesystemsbutarenotsoskillfulatmotivatingpeople."Theydon’tgetalotofgroundinginthepeoplesideofthebusiness"saidJamesShaffervice-presidentandprincipaloftheTowersPerrinmanagementconsultingfirm. 49
Text1 IfthevariousadvocatesoftheconflictingoptionsareallsmartexperiencedandwellinformedwhydotheydisagreesocompletelyWouldn’ttheyallhavethoughttheissuethroughcarefullyandcometoapproximatelythesame"best"--conclusion Theanswertothatcrucialquestionliesinthestructureofthehumanbrainandthewayitprocessesinformation. Mosthumanbeingsactuallydecidebeforetheythink.Whenanyhumanbeing--executivespecializedexpertorpersoninthestree--encountersacomplexissueandformsanopinionoftenwithinamatterofsecondshowthoroughlyhasheorsheexploredtheimplicationsofthevariouscoursesofactionAnswer:notverythoroughly.Veryfewpeoplenomatterhowintelligentorexperiencedcantakeinventoryofthemanybranchingpossibilitiespossibleoutcomessideeffectsandundesiredconsequencesofapolicyoracourseofactioninamatterofseconds.Yetthosewhopridethemselvesonbeingdecisiveoftentrytodojustthat.Andoncetheirbrainslockontoanopinionmostoftheirthinkingthereafterconsistsoffindingsupportforit. Averyserioussideeffectofargumentativedecisionmakingcanbealackofsupportforthechosencourseofactiononthepartofthe"losing"faction.Whenonefactionwinsthemeetingandtheothersseethemselvesaslosingthebattleoftendoesn’tendwhenthemeetingends.Angerresentmentandjealousymayleadthemtosabotagethedecisionlaterortoreopenthedebateatlatermeetings. Thereisabetterway.AsphilosopherAldousHuxleysaid"Itisn’twhoisrightbutwhatisrightthatcounts."Thestructured-inquirymethodoffersabetteralternativetoargumentativedecisionmakingbydebate.WiththehelpoftheInternetandwirelesscomputertechnologythegapbetweenexpertsandexecutivesisnowbeingdramaticallyclosed.Byactuallyputtingthebrakesonthethinkingprocessslowingitdownandorganizingtheflowoflogicit’spossibletocreatealevelofclaritythatsheerargumentationcannevermatch. Thestructured-inquiryprocessintroducesalevelofconceptualclaritybyorganizingthecontributionsoftheexpertsthenbringstheexpertsandthedecisionmakersclosertogether.Althoughitisn’tpossibleornecessaryforapresidentorprimeministertolisteninoneveryintelligenceanalysismeetingit’spossibletoorganizetheexperts’informationtogivethedecisionmakermuchgreaterinsightastoitsmeaning.Thisprocessmaysomewhatresembleamarketingfocusgroup;it’sasimpleremarkablycleverwaytobringdecisionmakersclosertothesourceoftheexpertinformationandopinionsonwhichtheymustbasetheirdecisions. Thestructured-inquiryprocesscanbeusefulfor
Highoilpriceshavenotyetproducedaneconomicshockamongconsumingcountriesbutfurtherrisesespeciallysharp1wouldundoubtedlyhurttheworldeconomyand2wouldinevitablyharmproducerstoo.Beyondthisobviouspoint3higherpricescouldevendoharmtobothoilfirmsandproducers. Bigoilfirms4rollinginmoneytodaybutthatdisguisesthefactthattheirlonger-termprospectsare5.Behindthereserves-accountingscandalatRoyalDutch/Shell6aproblembedevillingallofthemajors:replacingtheirdwindlingreserves.7existingfieldsinAlaskaandtheNorthSeaarerapidlydecliningOPECcountriesandRussiaare8themout.9theyaretosurviveinthelongtermthebigoilfirmsmustembraceothersourcesofenergy10oil. 11itistobelievehigheroilpricescouldbebadnewsforproducingcountries12.PoliticalleadersinRussiaVenezuelaandotheroil-richcountriesarebendinglawstocrack13onforeignfirmsandtostrengthentheirgriponoil14throughstate-runfirms.Thismaybeconvenientforthepoliticalleadersthemselves.Alasitis15todomuchfortheircountrymen.Foryearscorruptionandinefficiency16thetypicalresultsofgovernmentcontrolofoilresources. Producingcountriesshould17embraceopenmarkets.18onethingshuttingoutforeigninvestmentwillonlyhurttheirownoiloutputby19thesharpestmanagersandlatesttechnologies.ForanothereconomicliberalisationincludingreformofbloatedwelfarestateswouldhelpOPECcountries20theireconomies--astheNAFTAtradedealhasdoneforoil-richMexico--andsopreparethemforthedaywhentheblackgoldstartsrunningout. 5
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