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某工业资本家的全部预付资本为2000万元，其中不变资本1500万元，可变资本500 万元，获得剩余价值300万元，其利润率是
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某资本家的全部预付资本为100万元其中不变资本90万元可变资本10万元获得剩余价值10万元其剩余价值
100%
10％
12.5％
11.1％
某资本家工厂共有资本100万元其中购买劳动力部分为40万元一次生产耗费不变资本50万元生产出商品的价
100%
300%
200%
150%
假定资本家投入100万元的资本其中不变资本80万元假定不变资本一次转移可变资本20万元雇佣劳动者生产
50％
100％
150％
200％
某工业资本家的全部预付资本为2000万元其中不变资本1500万元可变资本500万元获利剩余价值300
25%
20%
15%
10%
某资本家预付不变资本900万元可变资本100万元剩余价值率为100%其中可变资本每年周转2.5次其年
10%
20%
15%
25%
某资本家的全部预付资本为1000万元其中不变资本800万元可变资本200万元获 得剩余价值200万元
100%
20%
12.5%
11.1%
某资本家投资100万元每次投资所得的利润是15万元假定其预付资本的有机构成是4:1那么该资本家每次投
15%
75%
100%
125%
某资本家工厂共有资本100万元其中购买劳动力部分为40万元一次生产耗费不变资本50万元生产出商品的价
100%
300%
200
150%
某资本家工厂共有资本100万元其中购买劳动力部分为40万元一次生产耗费不变资本为50万元生产出商品的
100%
300%
20%
150%
某资本家投入的可变资本100万元不变资本100万元可变资本在一年内周转两次不变资本在一年内周转一次剩
200%；100万
200%；200万
150%；150万
150%；100万
某资本家预付不变资本900万元可变资本100万元剩余价值 率为100﹪其中可变资本每年周转2.5次其
10 ﹪
20 ﹪
15 ﹪
25 ﹪
2013年真题某资本家投资100万元每次投资所得的利润是15万元假定其预付资本的有机构成是4:1那么
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
某资本家工厂共有资本200万元其中一次生产耗费不变资本100万元购买劳动力部分为80万元生产出商品价
300%
200%
150%
100%
资本主义利润率反映的是
资本家对工人的剥削程度
预付不变资本的增殖程度
预付可变资本的增殖程度
全部预付资本的增殖程度
某资本家企业预付资本1000万元．资本有机构成为9:1剩余价值率为100%其中可变资本每年周转2.5
10%
20%
15%
25%
某资本家企业预付资本1000万元资本有机构成为9:1剩余价值率为100%．北中可变资本每年周转2.5
10%
20%
15%
25%
没有不变资本购买生产资料工人就不能创造剩余价值所以剩余价值是由资本家的 全部预付资本生产出来的
某资本家投资150万元经营生产其中100万元建筑厂房购买机器和工具等使用期为10年20万元购买原料
某资本家投资150万元经营生产其中100万元建筑厂房购买机器和工具等使用期为10年20万元购买原料
某资本家投资100万元每次投资所得的利润是15万元假定其预付资本的有机构成是4:1那么该资本家每次投
15%
75%
100%
125%
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Theessentialweaknessoftheoldandtraditionaleducationwasnotjustthatitemphasizedthenecessityforprovisionofdefinitesubject-matterandactivities.Thesethingsarenecessitiesforanythingthatcanrightlybecallededucation.Theweaknessandevilwasthattheimaginationofeducatorsdidnotgobeyondprovisionofafixedandrigidenvironmentofsubject-matteronedrawnmoreoverfromsourcesaltogethertooremotefromtheexperiencesofthepupil.Whatisneededintheneweducationismoreattentionnotlesstosubject-matterandtoprogressintechnique.ButwhenIsaymoreIdonotmeanmoreinquantityofthesameoldkind.Imeananimaginativevisionwhichseesthatnoprescribedandready-madeschemecanpossiblydeterminetheexactsubject-matterthatwillbestpromotetheeducativegrowthofeveryindividualyoungperson;thateverynewindividualsetsanewproblem;thathecallsforatleastasomewhatdifferentemphasisinsubject-matterpresented.Thereisnothingmoreblindlystupidthantheconventionwhichsupposesthatthematteractuallycontainedintextbooksofarithmetichistorygeographyetc.isjustwhatwillfurthertheeducationaldevelopmentofallchildren. Butwithdrawalfromthehardandfastandnarrowcontentsoftheoldcurriculumisonlythenegativesideofthematter.Ifwedonotgofarinthepositivedirectionofprovidingabodyofsubject-mattermuchrichermorevariedandflexibleandalsointruthmoredefinitejudgedintermsoftheexperienceofthosebeingeducatedthantraditionaleducationsuppliedweshalltendtoleaveaneducationalvacuuminwhichanythingmayhappen.Completeisolationisimpossibleinnature.Theyoungliveinsomeenvironmentwhetherweintenditornotandthisenvironmentisconstantlyinteractingwithwhatchildrenandyouthbringtoit.andtheresultistheshapingoftheirinterestsmindsandcharacter―eithereducativelyormis-educatively.Iftheprofessededucatorgivesuphisresponsibilityforjudgingandselectingthekindofenvironmentthathisbestunderstandingleadshimtothinkwillbecontributivetogrowththentheyoungareleftatthemercyofalltheunorganizedandcasualforcesofthemodernsocialenvironmentthatinevitablyplayuponthemaslongastheylive.Intheeducativeenvironmenttheknowledgejudgmentandexperienceoftheteacherisagreaternotasmallerfactorthanitisinthetraditionalschool.Thedifferenceisthattheteacheroperatesnotasajudgesetonhighandmarkedbyarbitraryauthoritybutasafriendlyco-partnerandguideinacommonenterprise. Intheauthor’’sviewthebasicfaultofoldeducationconsistsin
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Thatexperiencesinfluencesubsequentbehaviourisevidenceofanobviousbutneverthelessremarkableactivitycalledremembering.Learningcouldnotoccurwithoutthefunctionpopularlynamedmemory.Constantpracticehassuchaneffectonmemoryastoleadtoskilfulperformanceonthepianotorecitationofapoemandeventoreadingandunderstandingthesewords.So-calledintelligentbehaviourdemandsmemoryrememberingbeingaprimaryrequirementforreasoning.Theabilitytosolveanyproblemoreventorecognizethataproblemexistsdependsonmemory.Typicallythedecisiontocrossastreetisbasedonrememberingmanyearlierexperiences. Practiceorreviewtendstobuildandmaintainmemoryforataskorforanylearnedmaterial.Overaperiodofnopracticewhathasbeenlearnedtendstobeforgotten;andtheadaptiveconsequencesmaynotseemobvious.Yetdramaticinstancesofsuddenforgettingcanbeseentobeadaptive.Inthissensetheabilitytoforgetcanbeinterpretedtohavesurvivedthroughaprocessofnaturalselectioninanimals.Indeedwhenone’’smemoryofanemotionallypainfulexperienceleadstoseriousanxietyforgettingmayproducerelief.Neverthelessanevolutionaryinterpretationmightmakeitdifficulttounderstandhowthecommonlygradualprocessofforgettingsurvivednaturalselection. Inthinkingabouttheevolutionofmemorytogetherwithallitspossibleaspectsitishelpfultoconsiderwhatwouldhappenifmemoriesfailedtofade.Forgettingclearlyaidsorientationintimesinceoldmemoriesweakenandthenewtendtostandoutprovidingcluesforinferringduration.Withoutforgettingadaptiveabilitywouldsuffer;forexamplelearnedbehaviourthatmighthavebeencorrectadecadeagomaynolongerbe.Casesarerecordedofpeoplewhobyordinarystandardsforgotsolittlethattheireverydayactivitieswerefullofconfusion.Thusforgettingseemstoservethesurvivaloftheindividualandthespecies. Anotherlineofthoughtassumesamemorystoragesystemoflimitedcapacitythatprovidesadaptiveflexibilityspecificallythroughforgetting.Inthisviewcontinualadjustmentsaremadebetweenlearningormemorystorageinputandforgettingoutput.Indeedthereisevidencethattherateatwhichindividualsforgetisdirectlyrelatedtohowmuchtheyhavelearned.Suchdataoffergrosssupportofcontemporarymodelsofmemorythatassumeaninput-outputbalance. Inthisarticletheauthortriestointerpretthefunctionof________________.
Scienceisanenterpriseconcernedwithgaininginformationaboutcausalityortherelationshipbetweencauseandeffect.Asimpleexampleofacauseisthemovementofapaddleasitstrikesaping-pongball;theeffectisthemovementoftheballthroughtheair.Inpsychologyandothersciencesthewordcauseisoftenreplacedbythetermindependentvariable.Thistermimpliesthattheexperimenterisoftenfreetovarytheindependentvariableasheorshedesiresforexampletheexperimentercancontrolthespeedofthepaddleasitstrikestheball.Thetermdependentvariablereplacesthewordeffectandthistermisusedbecausetheeffectdependsonsomecharacteristicoftheindependentvariabletheflightoftheballdependsonthespeedofthepaddle.Theconventionsofsciencedemandthatboththeindependentanddependentvariablesbeobservableeventsasisthecaseintheping-pongexample.Inthecaseofbiorhythmtheorytheindependentvariableisthenumberofdaysthathaveelapsedbetweenaperson’’sdateofbirthandsometestday.Thedependentvariableistheperson’’slevelofperformanceonsomespecifiedtaskonthetestday.Noticethatalthoughtheexperimenterisnotfreetochooseabirthdayforagivenindividualpersonswithdifferentdatesofbirthcanbetestedonthesamedayorasinglesubjectcanbetestedonseveraldifferentdays. Inordertopredicttherelationshipbetweenindependentanddependentvariablesmanyscientifictheoriesmakeuseofwhatarecalledinterveningvariables.Interveningvariablesarepurelytheoreticalconceptsthatcannotbeobserveddirectly.Topredicttheflightofaping-pongballNewtonianphysicsreliesonanumberofinterveningvariablesincludingforcemassairresistanceandgravity.Youcanprobablyanticipatethattheinterveningvariablesofbiorhythmtheoryarethethreebodilycycleswiththeirspecifiedtimeperiods.Itshouldbeemphasizedthatnotallpsychologicaltheoriesincludeinterveningvariablesandsomepsychologistsobjecttotheirusepreciselybecausetheyarenotdirectlyobservable. Thefinalmajorcomponentofascientifictheoryisitssyntaxortherulesanddefinitionsthatstatehowtheindependentanddependentvariablesaretobemeasuredandthatspecifytherelationshipsamongindependentvariablesinterveningvariablesanddependentvariables.Itisthesyntaxofbiorhythmtheorythatdescribeshowtouseaperson’’sbirthdaytocalculatethecurrentstatusofthethreecycles.Thesyntaxalsorelatesthecyclestothedependentvariableperformancebystatingthatpositivecyclesshouldcausehighlevelsofperformancewhereasloworcriticalcyclesshouldcauselowperformancelevels.Tosummarizethecomponentsofascientifictheorycanbedividedintofourmajorcategories:independentvariablesdependentvariablesinterveningvariablesandsyntax. Accordingtobiorhythmtheory
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Scienceinpracticedependsfarlessontheexperimentsitpreparesthanonthepreparednessofthemindsofthemenwhowatchtheexperiments.SirIsaacNewtonsupposedlydiscoveredgravitythroughthefallofanapple.Appleshadbeenfallinginmanyplacesforcenturiesandthousandsofpeoplehadseenthemfall.ButNewtonforyearshadbeencuriousaboutthecauseoftheorbitalmotionofthemoonandplanets.WhatkepttheminplaceWhydidn’’ttheyfalloutoftheskyThefactthattheapplefelldowntowardtheearthandnotupintothetreeansweredthequestionhehadbeenaskinghimselfaboutthoselargerfruitsoftheheavensthemoonandtheplanets. HowmanymenwouldhaveconsideredthepossibilityofanapplefallingupintothetreeNewtondidbecausehewasnottryingtopredictanything.Hewasjustwondering.Hismindwasreadyfortheunpredictable.Unpredictabilityispartoftheessentialnatureofresearch.Ifyoudon’’thaveunpredictablethingsyoudon’’thaveresearch.Scientiststendtoforgetthiswhenwritingtheircutanddriedreportsforthetechnicaljournalsbuthistoryisfilledwithexamplesofit. Intalkingtosomescientistsparticularlyyoungeronesyoumightgathertheimpressionthattheyfindthescientificmethodasubstituteforimaginativethought.I’’veattendedresearchconferenceswhereascientisthasbeenaskedwhathethinksabouttheadvisabilityofcontinuingacertainexperiment.Thescientisthasfrownedlookedatthegraphsandsaidthedataarestillinconclusive.WeknowthatthemenfromthebudgetofficehavesaidbutwhatdoyouthinkIsitworthwhilegoingonWhatdoyouthinkwemightexpectThescientisthasbeenshockedathavingevenbeenaskedtospeculate. Whatthisamountstoofcourseisthatthescientisthasbecomethevictimofhisownwritings.Hehasputforwardunquestionedclaimssoconsistentlythathenotonlybelievesthemhimselfbuthasconvincedindustrialandbusinessmanagementthattheyaretrue.Ifexperimentsareplannedandcarriedoutaccordingtoplanasfaithfullyasthereportsinthesciencejournalsindicatethenitisperfectlylogicalformanagementtoexpectresearchtoproduceresultsmeasurableindollarsandcents.Itisentirelyreasonableforauditorstobelievethatscientistswhoknowexactlywheretheyaregoingandhowtheywillgetthereshouldnotbedistractedbythenecessityofkeepingoneeyeonthecashregisterwhiletheothereyeisonthemicroscope.Norifregularityandconformitytoastandardpatternareasdesirabletothescientistasthewritingofhispaperswouldappeartoreflectismanagementtobeblamedfordiscriminatingagainsttheoddballsamongresearchersinfavorofmoreconventionalthinkerswhoworkwellwiththeteam. Theauthorimpliesthattheresultsofscientificresearch____________.
1Interpretthefollowingpictures. 2Predictthetendencyoftobaccoconsumptionandgiveyourreasons.
Inlessthan30years’’timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain’’snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironmentsallowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall. 71.Therewillbetelevisionchatshowshostedbyrobotsandcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.72.Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithpersonalitychipscomputerswithin-builtpersonalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantoolsrelaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-televisionanddigitalagewillhavearrived. AccordingtoBT’’sfuturologistIanPearsontheseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillenniumaperiodof1000yearswhensupercomputerswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife. 73.Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsorkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicineincludinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040. Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.BylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystemcomputerscouldpickupwhatwefeelandhopefullysimulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironmentsratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeckhesays.74.ButthatPearsonpointsoutisonlythestartofman-machineintegration:Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimatelyleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury. ThroughhisresearchPearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.Howevertherearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-that-lighttravelwillbeavailableorwhenhumancloningwillbeperfectedorwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswillforexamplecauseproblemsin2010whilethearrivalofsyntheticlifelikerobotswillmeanpeoplemaynotbeabletodistinguishbetweentheirhumanfriendsandthedroids.75.Andhomeapplianceswillalsobecomesosmartthatcontrollingandoperatingthemwillresultinthebreakoutofanewpsychologicaldisorder--kitchenrage.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Thatexperiencesinfluencesubsequentbehaviourisevidenceofanobviousbutneverthelessremarkableactivitycalledremembering.Learningcouldnotoccurwithoutthefunctionpopularlynamedmemory.Constantpracticehassuchaneffectonmemoryastoleadtoskilfulperformanceonthepianotorecitationofapoemandeventoreadingandunderstandingthesewords.So-calledintelligentbehaviourdemandsmemoryrememberingbeingaprimaryrequirementforreasoning.Theabilitytosolveanyproblemoreventorecognizethataproblemexistsdependsonmemory.Typicallythedecisiontocrossastreetisbasedonrememberingmanyearlierexperiences. Practiceorreviewtendstobuildandmaintainmemoryforataskorforanylearnedmaterial.Overaperiodofnopracticewhathasbeenlearnedtendstobeforgotten;andtheadaptiveconsequencesmaynotseemobvious.Yetdramaticinstancesofsuddenforgettingcanbeseentobeadaptive.Inthissensetheabilitytoforgetcanbeinterpretedtohavesurvivedthroughaprocessofnaturalselectioninanimals.Indeedwhenone’’smemoryofanemotionallypainfulexperienceleadstoseriousanxietyforgettingmayproducerelief.Neverthelessanevolutionaryinterpretationmightmakeitdifficulttounderstandhowthecommonlygradualprocessofforgettingsurvivednaturalselection. Inthinkingabouttheevolutionofmemorytogetherwithallitspossibleaspectsitishelpfultoconsiderwhatwouldhappenifmemoriesfailedtofade.Forgettingclearlyaidsorientationintimesinceoldmemoriesweakenandthenewtendtostandoutprovidingcluesforinferringduration.Withoutforgettingadaptiveabilitywouldsuffer;forexamplelearnedbehaviourthatmighthavebeencorrectadecadeagomaynolongerbe.Casesarerecordedofpeoplewhobyordinarystandardsforgotsolittlethattheireverydayactivitieswerefullofconfusion.Thusforgettingseemstoservethesurvivaloftheindividualandthespecies. Anotherlineofthoughtassumesamemorystoragesystemoflimitedcapacitythatprovidesadaptiveflexibilityspecificallythroughforgetting.Inthisviewcontinualadjustmentsaremadebetweenlearningormemorystorageinputandforgettingoutput.Indeedthereisevidencethattherateatwhichindividualsforgetisdirectlyrelatedtohowmuchtheyhavelearned.Suchdataoffergrosssupportofcontemporarymodelsofmemorythatassumeaninput-outputbalance. Accordingtothepassageifapersonneverforgot________________.
Inlessthan30years’’timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain’’snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironmentsallowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall. 71.Therewillbetelevisionchatshowshostedbyrobotsandcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.72.Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithpersonalitychipscomputerswithin-builtpersonalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantoolsrelaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-televisionanddigitalagewillhavearrived. AccordingtoBT’’sfuturologistIanPearsontheseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillenniumaperiodof1000yearswhensupercomputerswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife. 73.Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsorkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicineincludinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040. Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.BylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystemcomputerscouldpickupwhatwefeelandhopefullysimulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironmentsratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeckhesays.74.ButthatPearsonpointsoutisonlythestartofman-machineintegration:Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimatelyleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury. ThroughhisresearchPearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.Howevertherearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-that-lighttravelwillbeavailableorwhenhumancloningwillbeperfectedorwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswillforexamplecauseproblemsin2010whilethearrivalofsyntheticlifelikerobotswillmeanpeoplemaynotbeabletodistinguishbetweentheirhumanfriendsandthedroids.75.Andhomeapplianceswillalsobecomesosmartthatcontrollingandoperatingthemwillresultinthebreakoutofanewpsychologicaldisorder--kitchenrage. Inlessthan30years’’timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain’’snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironmentsallowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall. 71.Therewillbetelevisionchatshowshostedbyrobotsandcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.72.Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithpersonalitychipscomputerswithin-builtpersonalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantoolsrelaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-televisionanddigitalagewillhavearrived. AccordingtoBT’’sfuturologistIanPearsontheseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillenniumaperiodof1000yearswhensupercomputerswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife. 73.Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsorkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicineincludinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040. Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.BylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystemcomputerscouldpickupwhatwefeelandhopefullysimulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironmentsratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeckhesays.74.ButthatPearsonpointsoutisonlythestartofman-machineintegration:Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimatelyleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury. ThroughhisresearchPearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.Howevertherearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-that-lighttravelwillbeavailableorwhenhumancloningwillbeperfectedorwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswillforexamplecauseproblemsin2010whilethearrivalofsyntheticlifelikerobotswillmeanpeoplemaynotbeabletodistinguishbetweentheirhumanfriendsandthedroids.75.Andhomeapplianceswillalsobecomesosmartthatcontrollingandoperatingthemwillresultinthebreakoutofanewpsychologicaldisorder--kitchenrage.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Theessentialweaknessoftheoldandtraditionaleducationwasnotjustthatitemphasizedthenecessityforprovisionofdefinitesubject-matterandactivities.Thesethingsarenecessitiesforanythingthatcanrightlybecallededucation.Theweaknessandevilwasthattheimaginationofeducatorsdidnotgobeyondprovisionofafixedandrigidenvironmentofsubject-matteronedrawnmoreoverfromsourcesaltogethertooremotefromtheexperiencesofthepupil.Whatisneededintheneweducationismoreattentionnotlesstosubject-matterandtoprogressintechnique.ButwhenIsaymoreIdonotmeanmoreinquantityofthesameoldkind.Imeananimaginativevisionwhichseesthatnoprescribedandready-madeschemecanpossiblydeterminetheexactsubject-matterthatwillbestpromotetheeducativegrowthofeveryindividualyoungperson;thateverynewindividualsetsanewproblem;thathecallsforatleastasomewhatdifferentemphasisinsubject-matterpresented.Thereisnothingmoreblindlystupidthantheconventionwhichsupposesthatthematteractuallycontainedintextbooksofarithmetichistorygeographyetc.isjustwhatwillfurthertheeducationaldevelopmentofallchildren. Butwithdrawalfromthehardandfastandnarrowcontentsoftheoldcurriculumisonlythenegativesideofthematter.Ifwedonotgofarinthepositivedirectionofprovidingabodyofsubject-mattermuchrichermorevariedandflexibleandalsointruthmoredefinitejudgedintermsoftheexperienceofthosebeingeducatedthantraditionaleducationsuppliedweshalltendtoleaveaneducationalvacuuminwhichanythingmayhappen.Completeisolationisimpossibleinnature.Theyoungliveinsomeenvironmentwhetherweintenditornotandthisenvironmentisconstantlyinteractingwithwhatchildrenandyouthbringtoit.andtheresultistheshapingoftheirinterestsmindsandcharacter―eithereducativelyormis-educatively.Iftheprofessededucatorgivesuphisresponsibilityforjudgingandselectingthekindofenvironmentthathisbestunderstandingleadshimtothinkwillbecontributivetogrowththentheyoungareleftatthemercyofalltheunorganizedandcasualforcesofthemodernsocialenvironmentthatinevitablyplayuponthemaslongastheylive.Intheeducativeenvironmenttheknowledgejudgmentandexperienceoftheteacherisagreaternotasmallerfactorthanitisinthetraditionalschool.Thedifferenceisthattheteacheroperatesnotasajudgesetonhighandmarkedbyarbitraryauthoritybutasafriendlyco-partnerandguideinacommonenterprise. Therewillbetheriskofforminganeducationalblankif
Inlessthan30years’’timetheStarTrekholodeckwillbeareality.Directlinksbetweenthebrain’’snervoussystemandacomputerwillalsocreatefullsensoryvirtualenvironmentsallowingvirtualvacationslikethoseinthefilmTotalRecall. 71.Therewillbetelevisionchatshowshostedbyrobotsandcarswithpollutionmonitorsthatwilldisablethemwhentheyoffend.72.Childrenwillplaywithdollsequippedwithpersonalitychipscomputerswithin-builtpersonalitieswillberegardedasworkmatesratherthantoolsrelaxationwillbeinfrontofsmell-televisionanddigitalagewillhavearrived. AccordingtoBT’’sfuturologistIanPearsontheseareamongthedevelopmentsscheduledforthefirstfewdecadesofthenewmillenniumaperiodof1000yearswhensupercomputerswilldramaticallyaccelerateprogressinallareasoflife. 73.Pearsonhaspiecedtogethertheworkofhundredsofresearchersaroundtheworldtoproduceauniquemillenniumtechnologycalendarthatgivesthelatestdateswhenwecanexpecthundredsorkeybreakthroughsanddiscoveriestotakeplace.Someofthebiggestdevelopmentswillbeinmedicineincludinganextendedlifeexpectancyanddozensofartificialorganscomingintousebetweennowand2040. Pearsonalsopredictsabreakthroughincomputer-humanlinks.BylinkingdirectlytoournervoussystemcomputerscouldpickupwhatwefeelandhopefullysimulatefeelingtoosothatwecanstarttodevelopfullsensoryenvironmentsratherliketheholidaysinTotalRecallortheStarTrekholodeckhesays.74.ButthatPearsonpointsoutisonlythestartofman-machineintegration:Itwillbethebeginningofthelongprocessofintegrationthatwillultimatelyleadtoafullyelectronichumanbeforetheendofthenextcentury. ThroughhisresearchPearsonisabletoputdatestomostofthebreakthroughsthatcanbepredicted.Howevertherearestillnoforecastsforwhenfaster-that-lighttravelwillbeavailableorwhenhumancloningwillbeperfectedorwhentimetravelwillbepossible.Buthedoesexpectsocialproblemsasaresultoftechnologicaladvances.Aboominneighborhoodsurveillancecameraswillforexamplecauseproblemsin2010whilethearrivalofsyntheticlifelikerobotswillmeanpeoplemaynotbeabletodistinguishbetweentheirhumanfriendsandthedroids.75.Andhomeapplianceswillalsobecomesosmartthatcontrollingandoperatingthemwillresultinthebreakoutofanewpsychologicaldisorder--kitchenrage.
Scienceisanenterpriseconcernedwithgaininginformationaboutcausalityortherelationshipbetweencauseandeffect.Asimpleexampleofacauseisthemovementofapaddleasitstrikesaping-pongball;theeffectisthemovementoftheballthroughtheair.Inpsychologyandothersciencesthewordcauseisoftenreplacedbythetermindependentvariable.Thistermimpliesthattheexperimenterisoftenfreetovarytheindependentvariableasheorshedesiresforexampletheexperimentercancontrolthespeedofthepaddleasitstrikestheball.Thetermdependentvariablereplacesthewordeffectandthistermisusedbecausetheeffectdependsonsomecharacteristicoftheindependentvariabletheflightoftheballdependsonthespeedofthepaddle.Theconventionsofsciencedemandthatboththeindependentanddependentvariablesbeobservableeventsasisthecaseintheping-pongexample.Inthecaseofbiorhythmtheorytheindependentvariableisthenumberofdaysthathaveelapsedbetweenaperson’’sdateofbirthandsometestday.Thedependentvariableistheperson’’slevelofperformanceonsomespecifiedtaskonthetestday.Noticethatalthoughtheexperimenterisnotfreetochooseabirthdayforagivenindividualpersonswithdifferentdatesofbirthcanbetestedonthesamedayorasinglesubjectcanbetestedonseveraldifferentdays. Inordertopredicttherelationshipbetweenindependentanddependentvariablesmanyscientifictheoriesmakeuseofwhatarecalledinterveningvariables.Interveningvariablesarepurelytheoreticalconceptsthatcannotbeobserveddirectly.Topredicttheflightofaping-pongballNewtonianphysicsreliesonanumberofinterveningvariablesincludingforcemassairresistanceandgravity.Youcanprobablyanticipatethattheinterveningvariablesofbiorhythmtheoryarethethreebodilycycleswiththeirspecifiedtimeperiods.Itshouldbeemphasizedthatnotallpsychologicaltheoriesincludeinterveningvariablesandsomepsychologistsobjecttotheirusepreciselybecausetheyarenotdirectlyobservable. Thefinalmajorcomponentofascientifictheoryisitssyntaxortherulesanddefinitionsthatstatehowtheindependentanddependentvariablesaretobemeasuredandthatspecifytherelationshipsamongindependentvariablesinterveningvariablesanddependentvariables.Itisthesyntaxofbiorhythmtheorythatdescribeshowtouseaperson’’sbirthdaytocalculatethecurrentstatusofthethreecycles.Thesyntaxalsorelatesthecyclestothedependentvariableperformancebystatingthatpositivecyclesshouldcausehighlevelsofperformancewhereasloworcriticalcyclesshouldcauselowperformancelevels.Tosummarizethecomponentsofascientifictheorycanbedividedintofourmajorcategories:independentvariablesdependentvariablesinterveningvariablesandsyntax. Manytheoriesforpredictingtherelationshipbetweencauseandeffect
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Theessentialweaknessoftheoldandtraditionaleducationwasnotjustthatitemphasizedthenecessityforprovisionofdefinitesubject-matterandactivities.Thesethingsarenecessitiesforanythingthatcanrightlybecallededucation.Theweaknessandevilwasthattheimaginationofeducatorsdidnotgobeyondprovisionofafixedandrigidenvironmentofsubject-matteronedrawnmoreoverfromsourcesaltogethertooremotefromtheexperiencesofthepupil.Whatisneededintheneweducationismoreattentionnotlesstosubject-matterandtoprogressintechnique.ButwhenIsaymoreIdonotmeanmoreinquantityofthesameoldkind.Imeananimaginativevisionwhichseesthatnoprescribedandready-madeschemecanpossiblydeterminetheexactsubject-matterthatwillbestpromotetheeducativegrowthofeveryindividualyoungperson;thateverynewindividualsetsanewproblem;thathecallsforatleastasomewhatdifferentemphasisinsubject-matterpresented.Thereisnothingmoreblindlystupidthantheconventionwhichsupposesthatthematteractuallycontainedintextbooksofarithmetichistorygeographyetc.isjustwhatwillfurthertheeducationaldevelopmentofallchildren. Butwithdrawalfromthehardandfastandnarrowcontentsoftheoldcurriculumisonlythenegativesideofthematter.Ifwedonotgofarinthepositivedirectionofprovidingabodyofsubject-mattermuchrichermorevariedandflexibleandalsointruthmoredefinitejudgedintermsoftheexperienceofthosebeingeducatedthantraditionaleducationsuppliedweshalltendtoleaveaneducationalvacuuminwhichanythingmayhappen.Completeisolationisimpossibleinnature.Theyoungliveinsomeenvironmentwhetherweintenditornotandthisenvironmentisconstantlyinteractingwithwhatchildrenandyouthbringtoit.andtheresultistheshapingoftheirinterestsmindsandcharacter―eithereducativelyormis-educatively.Iftheprofessededucatorgivesuphisresponsibilityforjudgingandselectingthekindofenvironmentthathisbestunderstandingleadshimtothinkwillbecontributivetogrowththentheyoungareleftatthemercyofalltheunorganizedandcasualforcesofthemodernsocialenvironmentthatinevitablyplayuponthemaslongastheylive.Intheeducativeenvironmenttheknowledgejudgmentandexperienceoftheteacherisagreaternotasmallerfactorthanitisinthetraditionalschool.Thedifferenceisthattheteacheroperatesnotasajudgesetonhighandmarkedbyarbitraryauthoritybutasafriendlyco-partnerandguideinacommonenterprise. Pupilsmaybewellguardedagainstiiisocialinfluencesaslongas
Scienceinpracticedependsfarlessontheexperimentsitpreparesthanonthepreparednessofthemindsofthemenwhowatchtheexperiments.SirIsaacNewtonsupposedlydiscoveredgravitythroughthefallofanapple.Appleshadbeenfallinginmanyplacesforcenturiesandthousandsofpeoplehadseenthemfall.ButNewtonforyearshadbeencuriousaboutthecauseoftheorbitalmotionofthemoonandplanets.WhatkepttheminplaceWhydidn’’ttheyfalloutoftheskyThefactthattheapplefelldowntowardtheearthandnotupintothetreeansweredthequestionhehadbeenaskinghimselfaboutthoselargerfruitsoftheheavensthemoonandtheplanets. HowmanymenwouldhaveconsideredthepossibilityofanapplefallingupintothetreeNewtondidbecausehewasnottryingtopredictanything.Hewasjustwondering.Hismindwasreadyfortheunpredictable.Unpredictabilityispartoftheessentialnatureofresearch.Ifyoudon’’thaveunpredictablethingsyoudon’’thaveresearch.Scientiststendtoforgetthiswhenwritingtheircutanddriedreportsforthetechnicaljournalsbuthistoryisfilledwithexamplesofit. Intalkingtosomescientistsparticularlyyoungeronesyoumightgathertheimpressionthattheyfindthescientificmethodasubstituteforimaginativethought.I’’veattendedresearchconferenceswhereascientisthasbeenaskedwhathethinksabouttheadvisabilityofcontinuingacertainexperiment.Thescientisthasfrownedlookedatthegraphsandsaidthedataarestillinconclusive.WeknowthatthemenfromthebudgetofficehavesaidbutwhatdoyouthinkIsitworthwhilegoingonWhatdoyouthinkwemightexpectThescientisthasbeenshockedathavingevenbeenaskedtospeculate. Whatthisamountstoofcourseisthatthescientisthasbecomethevictimofhisownwritings.Hehasputforwardunquestionedclaimssoconsistentlythathenotonlybelievesthemhimselfbuthasconvincedindustrialandbusinessmanagementthattheyaretrue.Ifexperimentsareplannedandcarriedoutaccordingtoplanasfaithfullyasthereportsinthesciencejournalsindicatethenitisperfectlylogicalformanagementtoexpectresearchtoproduceresultsmeasurableindollarsandcents.Itisentirelyreasonableforauditorstobelievethatscientistswhoknowexactlywheretheyaregoingandhowtheywillgetthereshouldnotbedistractedbythenecessityofkeepingoneeyeonthecashregisterwhiletheothereyeisonthemicroscope.Norifregularityandconformitytoastandardpatternareasdesirabletothescientistasthewritingofhispaperswouldappeartoreflectismanagementtobeblamedfordiscriminatingagainsttheoddballsamongresearchersinfavorofmoreconventionalthinkerswhoworkwellwiththeteam. Theauthorassertsthatscientists__________________.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
Mentalmodelsguideourperceptionsandhelpusmakepredictions.Mostofourmentalmodelsarebuilt1thestructureofournervoussystemsandweareusually2ofthem. We3theworldnotaccordingtodirectknowledgeofrealitybutaccordingtomentalmodelswhichpeopleoftenmistake4reality.Forexampleweallshareabuilt-inmentalmodelthattheworldiscontinuous5oureyestellusdifferently.Thisbuilt-inmentalmodeltellsuswhattoseeinapartoftheeyethatdoesn’’t6seeanything.Thisblindspotmodelcausesusto7made-upinformationacontinuationofsurroundingpatternsand8thatifwelookatapreviouslyhiddenspotitwilllooklikeits9. Notallmentalmodelsarebuiltin;somewelearnor10.Forexamplemostpeoplebelievethattheautomobilesdrivingdownthestreetwillnotturn11thesidewalkandhitpedestrians.Ifwebelieve12wewouldactlike13squirrelsalwaysstoppingtolookaroundandproceeding14noautomobileswereoperatingnearby. Weusementalmodelsofoursurroundingstoperceivewhatwebelievetobe15andtopredictwhatmayhappen.Thesementalmodels16tooursurroundings--wehavementalmodelsofobjectsoftheenvironmentandofotherpeople--andtoourowncapabilitiesand17 Allofourmentalmodelsareunfortunatelyapproximations18inthelumpofnervoustissuewecallthebrain.Sophisticated19thebrainisitisverysmallandsimplecomparedwiththe20oftheoutsideworld.
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