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Text 2 For a long time, researchers have tried to nail down just what shapes us--or what, at le...
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Text1 WhenexecutivesatGooglewentlookingforWallStreetinvestmentbankerstounderwritethecompany’smassiveinitialpublicofferingtheylaiddownstricttermsofengagement:bringusnewideasonhowtosellthedealtoinvestorsandsavetheusualpoliticalgamesmanship.Butwithsuchahugepaydayatstake--anestimated$100millioninfeesforhandlingtheoffering--wouldyouexpectallthebigfirmstoplaybytheGooglerulesOfcoursenot.JustaskGoldmanSachs. TowinachunkoftheGooglebusinessGoldmanthenation’spremierinvestmentbanksetfreeitsCEOHankPaulsontopullsomestrings.PaulsonisoneofWallStreet’sbest"callmen"whocanwaveaPalmPDAfullofconnectionswhenit’scrunchtimetobringhomeadeal.ButNewsweekhaslearnedthatPaulsontriedtosidestepGoogle’sordersbyreachingouttooneofGoogle’slargestinvestorsKleinerPerkinsthepowerfulventure-capitalfirmthatwasanearlyGooglebacker.ThemovehelpeddoomGoldman’seffortstowintheleadunderwritingspotwhichwentinsteadtoCreditSuisseFirstBostonandMorganStanley. PaulsonthoughthisbestshotwasJohnDoerroneofKleiner’stoppartners.Badmove.WhenwordofPaulson’smisstepgotbacktoGoogle’stopexecutivesGoldmanwasquicklybumpedfromthetopoftheshortlist."ThepeopleatGoogleweresuchenthusiastsabouttherules"saidoneexecutivewhoworksatarivalWallStreetfirm."Whentheyheardaboutthistheywentape."Noneofthepartiesinvolved--GoogleGoldmanSachsorDoerr--wouldcomment. ThetwowinnersCSFBandMorganStanleymanagedtokeepalowprofile.JohnMackCSFB’sfamouslywell-connectedchiefexecutivepurposelystayedoutofthebiddingprocessforfearthathemighttipthescalestoanotherplayerpeoplewithknowledgeofthemattersay.MeanwhilenewrulesforWallStreetresearchanalystsappeartohavepreventedMaryMeekerMorganStanley’stopInternetanalystfromplayingadirectroleeventhoughsheandDoerrhavedonebusinesstogetherforyears. Goldmanmeanwhilecan’tblameitslossjustonPaulson.PeopleclosetothedealsaybankersforthefirmbraggedtoGoogleabouttheGoldmannameanddidn’tgenerateenoughideasabouthowtosellsharestoinvestorsthroughanauction."TheirlackofmarketingwitmayhavehurtthemmorethanPaulson"saidtheexecutivefromarivalfirm.Sometimesitreallydoespaytoplaybytherules. Whatcanbeinferredfromthefirstparagraph
Text1 WhenexecutivesatGooglewentlookingforWallStreetinvestmentbankerstounderwritethecompany’smassiveinitialpublicofferingtheylaiddownstricttermsofengagement:bringusnewideasonhowtosellthedealtoinvestorsandsavetheusualpoliticalgamesmanship.Butwithsuchahugepaydayatstake--anestimated$100millioninfeesforhandlingtheoffering--wouldyouexpectallthebigfirmstoplaybytheGooglerulesOfcoursenot.JustaskGoldmanSachs. TowinachunkoftheGooglebusinessGoldmanthenation’spremierinvestmentbanksetfreeitsCEOHankPaulsontopullsomestrings.PaulsonisoneofWallStreet’sbest"callmen"whocanwaveaPalmPDAfullofconnectionswhenit’scrunchtimetobringhomeadeal.ButNewsweekhaslearnedthatPaulsontriedtosidestepGoogle’sordersbyreachingouttooneofGoogle’slargestinvestorsKleinerPerkinsthepowerfulventure-capitalfirmthatwasanearlyGooglebacker.ThemovehelpeddoomGoldman’seffortstowintheleadunderwritingspotwhichwentinsteadtoCreditSuisseFirstBostonandMorganStanley. PaulsonthoughthisbestshotwasJohnDoerroneofKleiner’stoppartners.Badmove.WhenwordofPaulson’smisstepgotbacktoGoogle’stopexecutivesGoldmanwasquicklybumpedfromthetopoftheshortlist."ThepeopleatGoogleweresuchenthusiastsabouttherules"saidoneexecutivewhoworksatarivalWallStreetfirm."Whentheyheardaboutthistheywentape."Noneofthepartiesinvolved--GoogleGoldmanSachsorDoerr--wouldcomment. ThetwowinnersCSFBandMorganStanleymanagedtokeepalowprofile.JohnMackCSFB’sfamouslywell-connectedchiefexecutivepurposelystayedoutofthebiddingprocessforfearthathemighttipthescalestoanotherplayerpeoplewithknowledgeofthemattersay.MeanwhilenewrulesforWallStreetresearchanalystsappeartohavepreventedMaryMeekerMorganStanley’stopInternetanalystfromplayingadirectroleeventhoughsheandDoerrhavedonebusinesstogetherforyears. Goldmanmeanwhilecan’tblameitslossjustonPaulson.PeopleclosetothedealsaybankersforthefirmbraggedtoGoogleabouttheGoldmannameanddidn’tgenerateenoughideasabouthowtosellsharestoinvestorsthroughanauction."TheirlackofmarketingwitmayhavehurtthemmorethanPaulson"saidtheexecutivefromarivalfirm.Sometimesitreallydoespaytoplaybytherules. JohnMackandMaryMeekersharedsimilaritiesinthattheyboth
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 20
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 6
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 10
[A]Stickingtolong-termplanning. [B]Striveformoreprofit [C]Decentralizedmanagement. [D]Maintaininganemployee-centricculture. [E]OfficialDo-Gooding. [F]Apubliccompanyownedbythepublic. WallStreetpredictorsnowestimatethatwhenGooglestocksareissuedsomeweeksfromnowthecompanywillbevaluedatasmuchas$30billionmakingBrinandPagewhoeachownabout15percentworthmorethan$4billioneach.ButpersonalwealthisclearlynottheobsessionofthecofounderswhoshareaclutteredofficeinthecampusdubbedtheGoogleplex.Asevidencedbytheir"ownersmanual"theyhavebeenstrugglingwithadeepquestion:howcantheypreservetheircompanyapproachcultureandvisionifitistobepubliclytradedandbeholdentoshareholders7Andtheyhavecomeupwithsomeanswers. 41.____________________ Googleisobsessedwithdemocracy.ThebasisofallitswealthspringsfromtheGooglesearchalgorithmswhichsearchthroughandindextheWebinsuchawayastocapturethecollectiveintelligenceofitsusers.It’skindofademocraticprocessandapparentlythisideacarriesovertowhoshouldownshares.Googleisrepellingtobeassociatedwiththego-goandultimatelygone-gonesuperheroesofthedot-comeraandtodiscouragespeculationPageandBrinoutline"afairprocessforourIPOthatisinclusiveofbothsmallandlargeinvestors."Theyproposeanauctionthatwillbypassthedaytradersandfatcatsandhopefullyreachtheiridealinvestor---awisesoulwillingtohanginforthelonghaul. WhenitcomestocontrolthoughGoogle’sleadersbelievethatitshouldrestwiththem.Thecompanywillhavetwoclassesofstockoneofwhichhasgreatervotingrightsownedbythem. 42.____________________ Soundingdangerouslylikeafortunecookiethecofounderswrite"Amanagementteamdistractedbyaseriesofshort-termtargetsisaspointlessasadietersteppingonascaleeveryhalfhour."Googlewon’tfallforthattheyinsist.TherewillbenoattempttomassagequarterlyresultstopleaseWallStreet.Andifyouaskthemhowthingswillgointhenextcoupleofmonths"wewillrespectfullydecline"toofferguidance. 43.____________________ BrinandPageknewthatdoubterspredictedthatgoingpublicwouldbetheendofGoogle’semployeeamenitieslikefreelunchescookedbyJerryGarcia’sformerchefandmassagesoncall.But"whenyoulookatthefinancialsthatcostsnothing"saidBrinrecently."It’slessthanaroundingerror."HeandPagearetellingshareholdersto"expectustoaddbenefitsratherthanreducethemovertime." 44.____________________ BrinPageandCEOEricSchmidtrunthecompanyasamessytriumvirate.Howevertheydoincludespatsbetweenthemasapossibleriskfactor.Andthechainofcommandwillbefurthercomplicatedbytheirrequirementthattheboardchairmanshouldnotbeaninsider. 45.____________________ IncasetherewasanydoubtaboutGoogle’sprioritiesPageandBrinputitinblackandwhite:"WeaspiretomakeGoogleaninstitutionthatmakestheworldabetterplace."Thecompanymottois"Don’tbeevil"andshareholdersshouldbeawarethatthiscouldimpactstockprice.Googleisputting1percentofitswealthinafoundationthatsomeday"mayeclipseGiggleitselfintermsofoverallworldimpact." Allfascinatingbutnotreallyananswertothatbigquestion:shouldyougetinonthis.’ThatwilldependonhowGooglecanmaintainitsamazingmomentuminthefaceofsomeverytoughcompetitivechallenges. 42
Text2 LastyearAmerica’sDefenceAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencyDARPAthoughtitwouldbeagoodideatoorganizearobotraceacrosstheNevadadesert.TheideaoftheGrandChallengeasDARPAdubbeditwasforautonomousrobotvehiclestosteera227km142-milecourseandclaima$1mjackpot.ThiswouldbeafirststeptowardsDARPA’sultimategoalofbeingabletobuildunmannedself-drivingmilitaryvehiclesandthuskeepAmericantroopsoutofharm’swayonthebattlefield. Thisyear’scropof23entrantswereofferedanevengreaterincentive--a$2mprizeforthewinner.Thatplustheintervening18monthsseemstohavedonethetrick.Thistimefivevehiclesfinishedthe211kincourse.ThewinneramodifiedVolkswagenTouaregdubbedStanleybyitsmakersateamfromStanfordUniversitydiditinameresixhoursand54minutes. StanleywasofcoursespeciallyhardenedbyitsdesignersfortheroughterrainoftheNevadadesert.Thecleverbithoweverwasthevehicle’sbrain.ThiswasdesignedandbuiltbytheStanfordArtificialIntelligenceLaboratorySAIL. Stanley’sbrainconsistsofsixtop-of-the-rangePentiumchipswiredcollaborativelytogether.Itisprogrammedwithspecialsoftwarethatisabletolearnfromitsmistakes.Thissoftwaremasteredthetricksofcollision-avoidanceinaseriesofdeserttestruns’conductedbeforetheracestarted. LikeallbrainsStanley’shasarangeofsensoryinputstoprocess.AglobalpositioningsystemGPSreceivertellsitwhereontheEarth’ssurfaceitis.Televisioncamerasradarandfourlaserbaseddistancemonitorstellitwhatitssurroundingsarelike.BycomparingitsGPSlocationwithitspre-programmeddestinationannouncedonlyafewhoursbeforetheracebeganitknewwhichwayitwantedtogo.Andbystudyingitssurroundingsitcouldworkoutwhatlookedlikethesafestroutethatwasalsoinapproximatelytherightdirection. AlthoughStanleycarriedoffthelaurelstheotherfourfinishersdidrespectably.SandstormmanagedatimejusttenminutesbehindthewinnerwhilehersistervehicleHighlandercameintenminutesafterthat.GrayBotandTerraMaxtheothertwocourse-completerscameinatsevenhours30minutesand12hours51minutesrespectively. Sosmartautonomousvehiclescanindeedfindtheirwayacrossseveralhundredkilometresofdesert.ThequestioniswhatnextDARPA’sanswerofcoursewillbetogodownthemilitaryroute.ButthissortoftechnologyhasobviouscivilianapplicationsaswellasSebastianThruntheheadofbothSAILandtheStanfordracingteamiskeentoemphasize. DrThrunthinksthatitcouldleadtoself-drivingroadvehicleswithin30yearsand--moreimmediately-togreatlyimprovedcollision-avoidancesystems.WhetherthefreewaysofCaliforniawillproveaseasytonavigateasthegulchesofNevadathoughremainstobeseen. Thepurposeofholdingarobotraceisto
Text4 Judgingbythe$23billionitearnedlastyeartheseshouldbethebestoftimesforShelltheAnglo-DutchenergygiantthatranksthirdamongthetopfiveWesternoilcompanies.ButWallStreetisn’tcelebrating.Insteadanalystsareworriedthatburiedbeneaththerecordprofitfiguresareworryingsignsofabusinessindecline. That’sbecauseShellhasn’tbeenabletofindnearlyasmuchoilandgasasit’snowpumpingoutoftheground.Infactithasn’tevencomeclose--replacingonly60%to70%ofwhatitproducedin2005andonly19%in2004.Shellhashadreserveproblemsforyears--acontroversyoverimproperlybookedassetsforcedittoreduceestimatedreservesbyroughly30%andledtotheresiguationofitsCEOPhilWattsin2004.Butwhat’stroublingnowisthatShellisfallingwaybehindrivalslikeExxonandBPdespitespendingbillionsmoreeachyearonexploringanddrillingnewwells.LastyearExxonreplaced112%ofproduction;BPcameupwith95%."Ihaveneverseenanythinglikethis"saysFadelGheitaveteranenergyanalystwithOppenheimer&Co."Shellusedtorepresentthegoldstandardinthisindustrybutlatelytheycan’tgettheiracttogether." TobesureShellstillhashugeassets--nearly12billionbarrels.Butintheoilandgasindustryreservereplacementisthebestguidetowhetheracompanywillbeabletomaintain-orgrow-productioninthefuture.SonotreplacingwhatyoupumpsayslongtimeindustryobserverMatthewSimmons"islikeeatingyourseedcorn.Ifyou’renotfindingnewoilyou’rejustliquidatingwhatyou’vegot."IndeedShell’sdailyproductionfigureshavebeenweaklatelyfalling6.7%in2005to3.52millionbarrelsaday. PrivatelyShellexecssaythecompany’sdecisiontocutspendingforexplorationwhenoilpricesbottomedoutinthelate1990sispartlytoblamefortheanemicnumbersnow.ShellCEOJeroenvanderVeerinsiststhatprojectslikethoseonSakhalinIslandoffSiberiaandinNigeriaandtheGulfofMexicowillenablethecompanytostartcatchingupwithpeersintheyearsahead.Itwon’tbeeasy."Ifyou’renotaddingtoreservesyouhaveaproblem"saysSanfordBernsteinanalystOswaldClint."Shellwillhavetoruntwiceashardjusttostayinplace." AccordingtoOswaldClintShell'schanceofcatchingupis
PartB Directions: Studythefollowingdrawingcarefullyandwriteanessayinwhichyoushould 1describethedrawing 2interpretitsmeaningand 3giveyourcommentonit.
Text4 Judgingbythe$23billionitearnedlastyeartheseshouldbethebestoftimesforShelltheAnglo-DutchenergygiantthatranksthirdamongthetopfiveWesternoilcompanies.ButWallStreetisn’tcelebrating.Insteadanalystsareworriedthatburiedbeneaththerecordprofitfiguresareworryingsignsofabusinessindecline. That’sbecauseShellhasn’tbeenabletofindnearlyasmuchoilandgasasit’snowpumpingoutoftheground.Infactithasn’tevencomeclose--replacingonly60%to70%ofwhatitproducedin2005andonly19%in2004.Shellhashadreserveproblemsforyears--acontroversyoverimproperlybookedassetsforcedittoreduceestimatedreservesbyroughly30%andledtotheresiguationofitsCEOPhilWattsin2004.Butwhat’stroublingnowisthatShellisfallingwaybehindrivalslikeExxonandBPdespitespendingbillionsmoreeachyearonexploringanddrillingnewwells.LastyearExxonreplaced112%ofproduction;BPcameupwith95%."Ihaveneverseenanythinglikethis"saysFadelGheitaveteranenergyanalystwithOppenheimer&Co."Shellusedtorepresentthegoldstandardinthisindustrybutlatelytheycan’tgettheiracttogether." TobesureShellstillhashugeassets--nearly12billionbarrels.Butintheoilandgasindustryreservereplacementisthebestguidetowhetheracompanywillbeabletomaintain-orgrow-productioninthefuture.SonotreplacingwhatyoupumpsayslongtimeindustryobserverMatthewSimmons"islikeeatingyourseedcorn.Ifyou’renotfindingnewoilyou’rejustliquidatingwhatyou’vegot."IndeedShell’sdailyproductionfigureshavebeenweaklatelyfalling6.7%in2005to3.52millionbarrelsaday. PrivatelyShellexecssaythecompany’sdecisiontocutspendingforexplorationwhenoilpricesbottomedoutinthelate1990sispartlytoblamefortheanemicnumbersnow.ShellCEOJeroenvanderVeerinsiststhatprojectslikethoseonSakhalinIslandoffSiberiaandinNigeriaandtheGulfofMexicowillenablethecompanytostartcatchingupwithpeersintheyearsahead.Itwon’tbeeasy."Ifyou’renotaddingtoreservesyouhaveaproblem"saysSanfordBernsteinanalystOswaldClint."Shellwillhavetoruntwiceashardjusttostayinplace." Shellcan'tgettheiracttogetherLine10Paragraph2because
Thewinnertakesallitiswidelysupposedincomputingcircles.Indeedgeekshavecoinedaword"Googlearchy"forthewayinwhichsearchenginesencouragewebtraffictowardsthemostpopularsites.46Thebeliefthatsearchenginesmakepopularwebsitesevermorepopularattheexpenseofotherpagesisnowbeingchallengedbyresearch. 47TheapparentlymagicalabilityofsearchenginessuchasGoogletoreturnrelevantwebsitesevenwhengiventhesketchiestofcluesbythepersonenteringaqueryreliesontheuseofmathematicalrecipesoralgorithms.Googleworksbyanalysingthestructureofthewebitself.Eachofitsbillionsofpagescanlinktootherpagesandcanalsointurnbelinkedtobyothers.Furthermoreifthepagesthatlinktothispageamalsoimportantthenthatpageisevenmorelikelytobeimportant.48ThealgorithmhasbeenmadeincreasinglycomplexovertheyearstodeterthosewhowouldmanipulatetheirpagestoappearhigherintherankingsbutitremainsattheheartofGoogle’ssuccess. Googleisnotaloneinthis.Manysearchenginestakeaccountofthenumberoflinkstoawebsitewhentheyreturntheresultsofasearch.49Becauseofthisthereisawidespreadbeliefamongcomputersocialandpoliticalscientiststhatsearchenginescreateaviciouscirclethatamplifiesthedominanceofestablishedandalreadypopularwebsites.Pagesreturnedbysearchenginesaremorelikelytobediscoveredandconsequentlylinkedtobyothers. NotsoaccordingtoacontroversialnewpaperthathasrecentlyappearedonarXivanonlinecollectionofphysicsandrelatedpapers.InitSantoFortunatoandhiscolleaguesatIndianaUniversityinAmericaandBielefeldUniversityinGermanyclaimthatsearchenginesactuallyhaveanegalitarianeffectthatincreasestraffictolesspopularsites. Theresearchersdevelopedamodelthatdescribedtwoextremecases.Inthefirstpeoplebrowsedthewebonlybysurfingrandomlinks.Inthesecondpeopleonlyvisitedpagesthatwerereturnedbysearchengines.Theresearchersthenturnedtotherealworld.Theyplottedthetraffictoawebsite--measuredasthefractionofallpageviewsmadeinathree-monthperiod--againstthenumberofincominglinksmadetothatwebsite.50Totheirsurprisetheyfoundthattherelationshipbetweenthetwodidnotliebetweentheextremessuggestedbytheirmodelbutsomewherecompletelydifferent.Itappearstoshowthatthesupposedbiasinfavourofpopularpagesisactuallymitigatedbythecombinationofsearchenginesandpeoplefollowingrandomlinks. ThealgorithmhasbeenmadeincreasinglycomplexovertheyearstodeterthosewhowouldmanipulatetheirpagestoappearhigherintherankingsbutitremainsattheheartofGoogle’ssuccess.
Text3 Thenextbigworkoutcrazeisoneevenacouchpotatocouldlove.Itstartswithawarm-up:atriptothesupermarket.Thenthere’salargedinnerfollowedbysomeleisurelyhoursspentdoingcrosswordpuzzles.Finallythere’sthecool-downalongbubblebath.Keepthisupandyou’llbebuffinnotime. Mentallybuffatanyrate.Thisisaworkoutforyourbrain--anexampleof"neurobics"amovementthat’sgainingmomentumamongthoselookingtostaysharpastheyage.Somepsychologistsclaimthatbyadjustingyourroutineinsmallwaysliketakingadifferentroutetothegrocerystoreorstimulatingyoursenseswithanewfragrancedbathproductyoucanencourageneuronstobuildmoreconnectionstoeachother.ThoughscientistsknowlittleabouttheearlystagesofAlzheimer’sclinicalevidenceisstartingtoshowthatmental"exercises"likethesemaywarditoff. Neurobicsgotstartedwiththe1999bookKeepYourBrainAlivebyDukeUniversityneurobiologistLarryKatzandwriterManningRubin.Sincethenthetermhasenteredcommonusageit’sdefinedinatleastoneslangdictionaryandinspirednumerousimitators.Entrepreneursnowoffercoursesthatteachneurobicexercisesalongsidemoretraditionalseminarsonhandlingstressandexpressingemotions.CorporatetrainerslikeMindGymrunemployeesthrough90minute"workouts"designedtoincreaseproductivity.There’salsotheMyBrainTrainer.comsiteapaidservicethatprovidesaccesstogameslikethoseusedinpsychologicalexperimentstotestcognitiveability.There’snoevidencethatthesegamesareanybetterforyouthansayscrabble.ButMyBrainTrainercreatorBruceFriedmansayshegetsa"neuralbuzz"fromthem--andhe’stakeneachmorethan1600times. Stillit’sagoodbetthatasimplechangeinroutinewillbejustaseffective.Ifthatdoesn’tseemmentallywearingconsiderhowyougoaboutmostneurobicactivitiesinordinarylife.Mostlikelyyou’regoingthroughthemotions--drivingonroadsyouknowbyheartswallowingdowndinnerwithoutsavoringitstasteortexture.Changingthingswillforceyoutopayattentiontowhatyou’redoing.Eventhosewhoareskepticalaboutneurobics’potentialforpreventingAlzheimer’shavetoadmitthatisn’tabadthing. ItcanbeinferredfromthepassagethatthebookKeepYourBrainAlive
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 8
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 14
Text2 Bigmacs.Nacho-CheeseChalupas.Subwaysubs.RobBoruckiadoresthemall.The37-yearoldindulgesinfast-foodfareatleastfivetimesaweek.AreallygooddayforBoruckiWhenWienerschnitzelaWestCoasthot-dogchainhegrewupwithrecentlyopenedjustafewblocksfromhisTempeArizonaofficeandhegottoenjoywithhisfellowsausageenthusiasts."Iwassoexcited"saystheInternetprojectmanagerwhorunsafast-foodfanWebsite."Andsowaseveryonethere." Infast-foodtermsBoruckiiscalleda"heavyuser"eventhoughheisquiteslender.Looselydefinedasthe20percentoffast-foodeaterswhoaccountfor60percentofallfast-foodsalesatypicalheavyuserismaleinhis20sor30sandextremelyloyaltotheburgersandfriesheloveslatelyheaviesarefeelingundersiegeasfast-foodchainshavecomeunderattack.ObesedinersaresuingcompanieslikeMcDonald’sforallegedlycontributingtotheirweightproblemsAndtheendlessfloodofstudiesdetailingthehorrorsofobesityprovideplentyofammoforthechattertypeswhowantheavyuserstochangetheirways. HeavyuserslikeBoruckiinsisttheydon’tneedsavingprotestingthattheyarefarfromtheuselessfattiesanti-fast-foodactivistsmakethemouttobe.ForhispartBoruckiisamoderateexerciser.Andhe’lloccasionallysubstituteasidesaladforhisregularfries.Indeedinarecentstudyofrestaurant-goersbytheresearchfirmTechnomic90percentsaidtheyhadconcernsaboutobesityand50percentsaidthey’dchangedtheireatinghabitsinthepastyearasaresult.Fast-foodcompanieshavenoticed.YoucangiveyourwaistlineabreaktodaywithaMcDonald’sfruit-and-walnutsaladorskiptheflame-broiledmeatandhaveaBurgerKingFire-Grilledsaladwithshrimpinstead.Thehealthyapproachisworking:salesareexpectedtoincreasebyasmuchas4percentthisyear. Heavyusersareadapting--intheirownway.They’reeatingChickenWhoppersaswellastherealthingandcuttingbackonanythingthathastheword"fried"initsname.McDonald’sdroppeditsSuperSizeportionsapparentlybecausecustomersstoppedorderingthegiganticservings."[But]theOuarterPounderwithCheeseortheBigMac--thoseitemswillnotbetouched"saysTechnomic’sDennisLombardi. JeremyHagemancantakesomecomfortinthat.The26-year-oldWebdesignerhitsthegymthreetimesaweeksothathecanindulgeinasmuchfastfoodashelikes."Ilikethingsthattastegood"Hagemansays.Hecameupwithaplan:eatmoreTacoBell."Forsomereason"hesays"itdoesn’tseemasbad." Thispassageiswrittenmainlyfor
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 18
Text4 Judgingbythe$23billionitearnedlastyeartheseshouldbethebestoftimesforShelltheAnglo-DutchenergygiantthatranksthirdamongthetopfiveWesternoilcompanies.ButWallStreetisn’tcelebrating.Insteadanalystsareworriedthatburiedbeneaththerecordprofitfiguresareworryingsignsofabusinessindecline. That’sbecauseShellhasn’tbeenabletofindnearlyasmuchoilandgasasit’snowpumpingoutoftheground.Infactithasn’tevencomeclose--replacingonly60%to70%ofwhatitproducedin2005andonly19%in2004.Shellhashadreserveproblemsforyears--acontroversyoverimproperlybookedassetsforcedittoreduceestimatedreservesbyroughly30%andledtotheresiguationofitsCEOPhilWattsin2004.Butwhat’stroublingnowisthatShellisfallingwaybehindrivalslikeExxonandBPdespitespendingbillionsmoreeachyearonexploringanddrillingnewwells.LastyearExxonreplaced112%ofproduction;BPcameupwith95%."Ihaveneverseenanythinglikethis"saysFadelGheitaveteranenergyanalystwithOppenheimer&Co."Shellusedtorepresentthegoldstandardinthisindustrybutlatelytheycan’tgettheiracttogether." TobesureShellstillhashugeassets--nearly12billionbarrels.Butintheoilandgasindustryreservereplacementisthebestguidetowhetheracompanywillbeabletomaintain-orgrow-productioninthefuture.SonotreplacingwhatyoupumpsayslongtimeindustryobserverMatthewSimmons"islikeeatingyourseedcorn.Ifyou’renotfindingnewoilyou’rejustliquidatingwhatyou’vegot."IndeedShell’sdailyproductionfigureshavebeenweaklatelyfalling6.7%in2005to3.52millionbarrelsaday. PrivatelyShellexecssaythecompany’sdecisiontocutspendingforexplorationwhenoilpricesbottomedoutinthelate1990sispartlytoblamefortheanemicnumbersnow.ShellCEOJeroenvanderVeerinsiststhatprojectslikethoseonSakhalinIslandoffSiberiaandinNigeriaandtheGulfofMexicowillenablethecompanytostartcatchingupwithpeersintheyearsahead.Itwon’tbeeasy."Ifyou’renotaddingtoreservesyouhaveaproblem"saysSanfordBernsteinanalystOswaldClint."Shellwillhavetoruntwiceashardjusttostayinplace." AccordingtothepassagethedeclineofShell
[A]Stickingtolong-termplanning. [B]Striveformoreprofit [C]Decentralizedmanagement. [D]Maintaininganemployee-centricculture. [E]OfficialDo-Gooding. [F]Apubliccompanyownedbythepublic. WallStreetpredictorsnowestimatethatwhenGooglestocksareissuedsomeweeksfromnowthecompanywillbevaluedatasmuchas$30billionmakingBrinandPagewhoeachownabout15percentworthmorethan$4billioneach.ButpersonalwealthisclearlynottheobsessionofthecofounderswhoshareaclutteredofficeinthecampusdubbedtheGoogleplex.Asevidencedbytheir"ownersmanual"theyhavebeenstrugglingwithadeepquestion:howcantheypreservetheircompanyapproachcultureandvisionifitistobepubliclytradedandbeholdentoshareholders7Andtheyhavecomeupwithsomeanswers. 41.____________________ Googleisobsessedwithdemocracy.ThebasisofallitswealthspringsfromtheGooglesearchalgorithmswhichsearchthroughandindextheWebinsuchawayastocapturethecollectiveintelligenceofitsusers.It’skindofademocraticprocessandapparentlythisideacarriesovertowhoshouldownshares.Googleisrepellingtobeassociatedwiththego-goandultimatelygone-gonesuperheroesofthedot-comeraandtodiscouragespeculationPageandBrinoutline"afairprocessforourIPOthatisinclusiveofbothsmallandlargeinvestors."Theyproposeanauctionthatwillbypassthedaytradersandfatcatsandhopefullyreachtheiridealinvestor---awisesoulwillingtohanginforthelonghaul. WhenitcomestocontrolthoughGoogle’sleadersbelievethatitshouldrestwiththem.Thecompanywillhavetwoclassesofstockoneofwhichhasgreatervotingrightsownedbythem. 42.____________________ Soundingdangerouslylikeafortunecookiethecofounderswrite"Amanagementteamdistractedbyaseriesofshort-termtargetsisaspointlessasadietersteppingonascaleeveryhalfhour."Googlewon’tfallforthattheyinsist.TherewillbenoattempttomassagequarterlyresultstopleaseWallStreet.Andifyouaskthemhowthingswillgointhenextcoupleofmonths"wewillrespectfullydecline"toofferguidance. 43.____________________ BrinandPageknewthatdoubterspredictedthatgoingpublicwouldbetheendofGoogle’semployeeamenitieslikefreelunchescookedbyJerryGarcia’sformerchefandmassagesoncall.But"whenyoulookatthefinancialsthatcostsnothing"saidBrinrecently."It’slessthanaroundingerror."HeandPagearetellingshareholdersto"expectustoaddbenefitsratherthanreducethemovertime." 44.____________________ BrinPageandCEOEricSchmidtrunthecompanyasamessytriumvirate.Howevertheydoincludespatsbetweenthemasapossibleriskfactor.Andthechainofcommandwillbefurthercomplicatedbytheirrequirementthattheboardchairmanshouldnotbeaninsider. 45.____________________ IncasetherewasanydoubtaboutGoogle’sprioritiesPageandBrinputitinblackandwhite:"WeaspiretomakeGoogleaninstitutionthatmakestheworldabetterplace."Thecompanymottois"Don’tbeevil"andshareholdersshouldbeawarethatthiscouldimpactstockprice.Googleisputting1percentofitswealthinafoundationthatsomeday"mayeclipseGiggleitselfintermsofoverallworldimpact." Allfascinatingbutnotreallyananswertothatbigquestion:shouldyougetinonthis.’ThatwilldependonhowGooglecanmaintainitsamazingmomentuminthefaceofsomeverytoughcompetitivechallenges. 44
Thewinnertakesallitiswidelysupposedincomputingcircles.Indeedgeekshavecoinedaword"Googlearchy"forthewayinwhichsearchenginesencouragewebtraffictowardsthemostpopularsites.46Thebeliefthatsearchenginesmakepopularwebsitesevermorepopularattheexpenseofotherpagesisnowbeingchallengedbyresearch. 47TheapparentlymagicalabilityofsearchenginessuchasGoogletoreturnrelevantwebsitesevenwhengiventhesketchiestofcluesbythepersonenteringaqueryreliesontheuseofmathematicalrecipesoralgorithms.Googleworksbyanalysingthestructureofthewebitself.Eachofitsbillionsofpagescanlinktootherpagesandcanalsointurnbelinkedtobyothers.Furthermoreifthepagesthatlinktothispageamalsoimportantthenthatpageisevenmorelikelytobeimportant.48ThealgorithmhasbeenmadeincreasinglycomplexovertheyearstodeterthosewhowouldmanipulatetheirpagestoappearhigherintherankingsbutitremainsattheheartofGoogle’ssuccess. Googleisnotaloneinthis.Manysearchenginestakeaccountofthenumberoflinkstoawebsitewhentheyreturntheresultsofasearch.49Becauseofthisthereisawidespreadbeliefamongcomputersocialandpoliticalscientiststhatsearchenginescreateaviciouscirclethatamplifiesthedominanceofestablishedandalreadypopularwebsites.Pagesreturnedbysearchenginesaremorelikelytobediscoveredandconsequentlylinkedtobyothers. NotsoaccordingtoacontroversialnewpaperthathasrecentlyappearedonarXivanonlinecollectionofphysicsandrelatedpapers.InitSantoFortunatoandhiscolleaguesatIndianaUniversityinAmericaandBielefeldUniversityinGermanyclaimthatsearchenginesactuallyhaveanegalitarianeffectthatincreasestraffictolesspopularsites. Theresearchersdevelopedamodelthatdescribedtwoextremecases.Inthefirstpeoplebrowsedthewebonlybysurfingrandomlinks.Inthesecondpeopleonlyvisitedpagesthatwerereturnedbysearchengines.Theresearchersthenturnedtotherealworld.Theyplottedthetraffictoawebsite--measuredasthefractionofallpageviewsmadeinathree-monthperiod--againstthenumberofincominglinksmadetothatwebsite.50Totheirsurprisetheyfoundthattherelationshipbetweenthetwodidnotliebetweentheextremessuggestedbytheirmodelbutsomewherecompletelydifferent.Itappearstoshowthatthesupposedbiasinfavourofpopularpagesisactuallymitigatedbythecombinationofsearchenginesandpeoplefollowingrandomlinks. Totheirsurprisetheyfoundthattherelationshipbetweenthetwodidnotliebetweentheextremessuggestedbytheirmodelbutsomewherecompletelydifferent.
Text2 Bigmacs.Nacho-CheeseChalupas.Subwaysubs.RobBoruckiadoresthemall.The37-yearoldindulgesinfast-foodfareatleastfivetimesaweek.AreallygooddayforBoruckiWhenWienerschnitzelaWestCoasthot-dogchainhegrewupwithrecentlyopenedjustafewblocksfromhisTempeArizonaofficeandhegottoenjoywithhisfellowsausageenthusiasts."Iwassoexcited"saystheInternetprojectmanagerwhorunsafast-foodfanWebsite."Andsowaseveryonethere." Infast-foodtermsBoruckiiscalleda"heavyuser"eventhoughheisquiteslender.Looselydefinedasthe20percentoffast-foodeaterswhoaccountfor60percentofallfast-foodsalesatypicalheavyuserismaleinhis20sor30sandextremelyloyaltotheburgersandfriesheloveslatelyheaviesarefeelingundersiegeasfast-foodchainshavecomeunderattack.ObesedinersaresuingcompanieslikeMcDonald’sforallegedlycontributingtotheirweightproblemsAndtheendlessfloodofstudiesdetailingthehorrorsofobesityprovideplentyofammoforthechattertypeswhowantheavyuserstochangetheirways. HeavyuserslikeBoruckiinsisttheydon’tneedsavingprotestingthattheyarefarfromtheuselessfattiesanti-fast-foodactivistsmakethemouttobe.ForhispartBoruckiisamoderateexerciser.Andhe’lloccasionallysubstituteasidesaladforhisregularfries.Indeedinarecentstudyofrestaurant-goersbytheresearchfirmTechnomic90percentsaidtheyhadconcernsaboutobesityand50percentsaidthey’dchangedtheireatinghabitsinthepastyearasaresult.Fast-foodcompanieshavenoticed.YoucangiveyourwaistlineabreaktodaywithaMcDonald’sfruit-and-walnutsaladorskiptheflame-broiledmeatandhaveaBurgerKingFire-Grilledsaladwithshrimpinstead.Thehealthyapproachisworking:salesareexpectedtoincreasebyasmuchas4percentthisyear. Heavyusersareadapting--intheirownway.They’reeatingChickenWhoppersaswellastherealthingandcuttingbackonanythingthathastheword"fried"initsname.McDonald’sdroppeditsSuperSizeportionsapparentlybecausecustomersstoppedorderingthegiganticservings."[But]theOuarterPounderwithCheeseortheBigMac--thoseitemswillnotbetouched"saysTechnomic’sDennisLombardi. JeremyHagemancantakesomecomfortinthat.The26-year-oldWebdesignerhitsthegymthreetimesaweeksothathecanindulgeinasmuchfastfoodashelikes."Ilikethingsthattastegood"Hagemansays.Hecameupwithaplan:eatmoreTacoBell."Forsomereason"hesays"itdoesn’tseemasbad." PeoplemayfindinMcDonald'sthat
Text2 Bigmacs.Nacho-CheeseChalupas.Subwaysubs.RobBoruckiadoresthemall.The37-yearoldindulgesinfast-foodfareatleastfivetimesaweek.AreallygooddayforBoruckiWhenWienerschnitzelaWestCoasthot-dogchainhegrewupwithrecentlyopenedjustafewblocksfromhisTempeArizonaofficeandhegottoenjoywithhisfellowsausageenthusiasts."Iwassoexcited"saystheInternetprojectmanagerwhorunsafast-foodfanWebsite."Andsowaseveryonethere." Infast-foodtermsBoruckiiscalleda"heavyuser"eventhoughheisquiteslender.Looselydefinedasthe20percentoffast-foodeaterswhoaccountfor60percentofallfast-foodsalesatypicalheavyuserismaleinhis20sor30sandextremelyloyaltotheburgersandfriesheloveslatelyheaviesarefeelingundersiegeasfast-foodchainshavecomeunderattack.ObesedinersaresuingcompanieslikeMcDonald’sforallegedlycontributingtotheirweightproblemsAndtheendlessfloodofstudiesdetailingthehorrorsofobesityprovideplentyofammoforthechattertypeswhowantheavyuserstochangetheirways. HeavyuserslikeBoruckiinsisttheydon’tneedsavingprotestingthattheyarefarfromtheuselessfattiesanti-fast-foodactivistsmakethemouttobe.ForhispartBoruckiisamoderateexerciser.Andhe’lloccasionallysubstituteasidesaladforhisregularfries.Indeedinarecentstudyofrestaurant-goersbytheresearchfirmTechnomic90percentsaidtheyhadconcernsaboutobesityand50percentsaidthey’dchangedtheireatinghabitsinthepastyearasaresult.Fast-foodcompanieshavenoticed.YoucangiveyourwaistlineabreaktodaywithaMcDonald’sfruit-and-walnutsaladorskiptheflame-broiledmeatandhaveaBurgerKingFire-Grilledsaladwithshrimpinstead.Thehealthyapproachisworking:salesareexpectedtoincreasebyasmuchas4percentthisyear. Heavyusersareadapting--intheirownway.They’reeatingChickenWhoppersaswellastherealthingandcuttingbackonanythingthathastheword"fried"initsname.McDonald’sdroppeditsSuperSizeportionsapparentlybecausecustomersstoppedorderingthegiganticservings."[But]theOuarterPounderwithCheeseortheBigMac--thoseitemswillnotbetouched"saysTechnomic’sDennisLombardi. JeremyHagemancantakesomecomfortinthat.The26-year-oldWebdesignerhitsthegymthreetimesaweeksothathecanindulgeinasmuchfastfoodashelikes."Ilikethingsthattastegood"Hagemansays.Hecameupwithaplan:eatmoreTacoBell."Forsomereason"hesays"itdoesn’tseemasbad." ThewordammoLine7Paragraph2mostprobablymeans
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 12
Text2 LastyearAmerica’sDefenceAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencyDARPAthoughtitwouldbeagoodideatoorganizearobotraceacrosstheNevadadesert.TheideaoftheGrandChallengeasDARPAdubbeditwasforautonomousrobotvehiclestosteera227km142-milecourseandclaima$1mjackpot.ThiswouldbeafirststeptowardsDARPA’sultimategoalofbeingabletobuildunmannedself-drivingmilitaryvehiclesandthuskeepAmericantroopsoutofharm’swayonthebattlefield. Thisyear’scropof23entrantswereofferedanevengreaterincentive--a$2mprizeforthewinner.Thatplustheintervening18monthsseemstohavedonethetrick.Thistimefivevehiclesfinishedthe211kincourse.ThewinneramodifiedVolkswagenTouaregdubbedStanleybyitsmakersateamfromStanfordUniversitydiditinameresixhoursand54minutes. StanleywasofcoursespeciallyhardenedbyitsdesignersfortheroughterrainoftheNevadadesert.Thecleverbithoweverwasthevehicle’sbrain.ThiswasdesignedandbuiltbytheStanfordArtificialIntelligenceLaboratorySAIL. Stanley’sbrainconsistsofsixtop-of-the-rangePentiumchipswiredcollaborativelytogether.Itisprogrammedwithspecialsoftwarethatisabletolearnfromitsmistakes.Thissoftwaremasteredthetricksofcollision-avoidanceinaseriesofdeserttestruns’conductedbeforetheracestarted. LikeallbrainsStanley’shasarangeofsensoryinputstoprocess.AglobalpositioningsystemGPSreceivertellsitwhereontheEarth’ssurfaceitis.Televisioncamerasradarandfourlaserbaseddistancemonitorstellitwhatitssurroundingsarelike.BycomparingitsGPSlocationwithitspre-programmeddestinationannouncedonlyafewhoursbeforetheracebeganitknewwhichwayitwantedtogo.Andbystudyingitssurroundingsitcouldworkoutwhatlookedlikethesafestroutethatwasalsoinapproximatelytherightdirection. AlthoughStanleycarriedoffthelaurelstheotherfourfinishersdidrespectably.SandstormmanagedatimejusttenminutesbehindthewinnerwhilehersistervehicleHighlandercameintenminutesafterthat.GrayBotandTerraMaxtheothertwocourse-completerscameinatsevenhours30minutesand12hours51minutesrespectively. Sosmartautonomousvehiclescanindeedfindtheirwayacrossseveralhundredkilometresofdesert.ThequestioniswhatnextDARPA’sanswerofcoursewillbetogodownthemilitaryroute.ButthissortoftechnologyhasobviouscivilianapplicationsaswellasSebastianThruntheheadofbothSAILandtheStanfordracingteamiskeentoemphasize. DrThrunthinksthatitcouldleadtoself-drivingroadvehicleswithin30yearsand--moreimmediately-togreatlyimprovedcollision-avoidancesystems.WhetherthefreewaysofCaliforniawillproveaseasytonavigateasthegulchesofNevadathoughremainstobeseen. IfputinnewsurroundingsStanleymay
Text2 LastyearAmerica’sDefenceAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencyDARPAthoughtitwouldbeagoodideatoorganizearobotraceacrosstheNevadadesert.TheideaoftheGrandChallengeasDARPAdubbeditwasforautonomousrobotvehiclestosteera227km142-milecourseandclaima$1mjackpot.ThiswouldbeafirststeptowardsDARPA’sultimategoalofbeingabletobuildunmannedself-drivingmilitaryvehiclesandthuskeepAmericantroopsoutofharm’swayonthebattlefield. Thisyear’scropof23entrantswereofferedanevengreaterincentive--a$2mprizeforthewinner.Thatplustheintervening18monthsseemstohavedonethetrick.Thistimefivevehiclesfinishedthe211kincourse.ThewinneramodifiedVolkswagenTouaregdubbedStanleybyitsmakersateamfromStanfordUniversitydiditinameresixhoursand54minutes. StanleywasofcoursespeciallyhardenedbyitsdesignersfortheroughterrainoftheNevadadesert.Thecleverbithoweverwasthevehicle’sbrain.ThiswasdesignedandbuiltbytheStanfordArtificialIntelligenceLaboratorySAIL. Stanley’sbrainconsistsofsixtop-of-the-rangePentiumchipswiredcollaborativelytogether.Itisprogrammedwithspecialsoftwarethatisabletolearnfromitsmistakes.Thissoftwaremasteredthetricksofcollision-avoidanceinaseriesofdeserttestruns’conductedbeforetheracestarted. LikeallbrainsStanley’shasarangeofsensoryinputstoprocess.AglobalpositioningsystemGPSreceivertellsitwhereontheEarth’ssurfaceitis.Televisioncamerasradarandfourlaserbaseddistancemonitorstellitwhatitssurroundingsarelike.BycomparingitsGPSlocationwithitspre-programmeddestinationannouncedonlyafewhoursbeforetheracebeganitknewwhichwayitwantedtogo.Andbystudyingitssurroundingsitcouldworkoutwhatlookedlikethesafestroutethatwasalsoinapproximatelytherightdirection. AlthoughStanleycarriedoffthelaurelstheotherfourfinishersdidrespectably.SandstormmanagedatimejusttenminutesbehindthewinnerwhilehersistervehicleHighlandercameintenminutesafterthat.GrayBotandTerraMaxtheothertwocourse-completerscameinatsevenhours30minutesand12hours51minutesrespectively. Sosmartautonomousvehiclescanindeedfindtheirwayacrossseveralhundredkilometresofdesert.ThequestioniswhatnextDARPA’sanswerofcoursewillbetogodownthemilitaryroute.ButthissortoftechnologyhasobviouscivilianapplicationsaswellasSebastianThruntheheadofbothSAILandtheStanfordracingteamiskeentoemphasize. DrThrunthinksthatitcouldleadtoself-drivingroadvehicleswithin30yearsand--moreimmediately-togreatlyimprovedcollision-avoidancesystems.WhetherthefreewaysofCaliforniawillproveaseasytonavigateasthegulchesofNevadathoughremainstobeseen. Fromthetextwecanconcludethattherobotrace
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 16
Thewinnertakesallitiswidelysupposedincomputingcircles.Indeedgeekshavecoinedaword"Googlearchy"forthewayinwhichsearchenginesencouragewebtraffictowardsthemostpopularsites.46Thebeliefthatsearchenginesmakepopularwebsitesevermorepopularattheexpenseofotherpagesisnowbeingchallengedbyresearch. 47TheapparentlymagicalabilityofsearchenginessuchasGoogletoreturnrelevantwebsitesevenwhengiventhesketchiestofcluesbythepersonenteringaqueryreliesontheuseofmathematicalrecipesoralgorithms.Googleworksbyanalysingthestructureofthewebitself.Eachofitsbillionsofpagescanlinktootherpagesandcanalsointurnbelinkedtobyothers.Furthermoreifthepagesthatlinktothispageamalsoimportantthenthatpageisevenmorelikelytobeimportant.48ThealgorithmhasbeenmadeincreasinglycomplexovertheyearstodeterthosewhowouldmanipulatetheirpagestoappearhigherintherankingsbutitremainsattheheartofGoogle’ssuccess. Googleisnotaloneinthis.Manysearchenginestakeaccountofthenumberoflinkstoawebsitewhentheyreturntheresultsofasearch.49Becauseofthisthereisawidespreadbeliefamongcomputersocialandpoliticalscientiststhatsearchenginescreateaviciouscirclethatamplifiesthedominanceofestablishedandalreadypopularwebsites.Pagesreturnedbysearchenginesaremorelikelytobediscoveredandconsequentlylinkedtobyothers. NotsoaccordingtoacontroversialnewpaperthathasrecentlyappearedonarXivanonlinecollectionofphysicsandrelatedpapers.InitSantoFortunatoandhiscolleaguesatIndianaUniversityinAmericaandBielefeldUniversityinGermanyclaimthatsearchenginesactuallyhaveanegalitarianeffectthatincreasestraffictolesspopularsites. Theresearchersdevelopedamodelthatdescribedtwoextremecases.Inthefirstpeoplebrowsedthewebonlybysurfingrandomlinks.Inthesecondpeopleonlyvisitedpagesthatwerereturnedbysearchengines.Theresearchersthenturnedtotherealworld.Theyplottedthetraffictoawebsite--measuredasthefractionofallpageviewsmadeinathree-monthperiod--againstthenumberofincominglinksmadetothatwebsite.50Totheirsurprisetheyfoundthattherelationshipbetweenthetwodidnotliebetweentheextremessuggestedbytheirmodelbutsomewherecompletelydifferent.Itappearstoshowthatthesupposedbiasinfavourofpopularpagesisactuallymitigatedbythecombinationofsearchenginesandpeoplefollowingrandomlinks. Thebeliefthatsearchenginesmakepopularwebsitesevermorepopularattheexpenseofotherpagesisnowbeingchallengedbyresearch.
Text3 Thenextbigworkoutcrazeisoneevenacouchpotatocouldlove.Itstartswithawarm-up:atriptothesupermarket.Thenthere’salargedinnerfollowedbysomeleisurelyhoursspentdoingcrosswordpuzzles.Finallythere’sthecool-downalongbubblebath.Keepthisupandyou’llbebuffinnotime. Mentallybuffatanyrate.Thisisaworkoutforyourbrain--anexampleof"neurobics"amovementthat’sgainingmomentumamongthoselookingtostaysharpastheyage.Somepsychologistsclaimthatbyadjustingyourroutineinsmallwaysliketakingadifferentroutetothegrocerystoreorstimulatingyoursenseswithanewfragrancedbathproductyoucanencourageneuronstobuildmoreconnectionstoeachother.ThoughscientistsknowlittleabouttheearlystagesofAlzheimer’sclinicalevidenceisstartingtoshowthatmental"exercises"likethesemaywarditoff. Neurobicsgotstartedwiththe1999bookKeepYourBrainAlivebyDukeUniversityneurobiologistLarryKatzandwriterManningRubin.Sincethenthetermhasenteredcommonusageit’sdefinedinatleastoneslangdictionaryandinspirednumerousimitators.Entrepreneursnowoffercoursesthatteachneurobicexercisesalongsidemoretraditionalseminarsonhandlingstressandexpressingemotions.CorporatetrainerslikeMindGymrunemployeesthrough90minute"workouts"designedtoincreaseproductivity.There’salsotheMyBrainTrainer.comsiteapaidservicethatprovidesaccesstogameslikethoseusedinpsychologicalexperimentstotestcognitiveability.There’snoevidencethatthesegamesareanybetterforyouthansayscrabble.ButMyBrainTrainercreatorBruceFriedmansayshegetsa"neuralbuzz"fromthem--andhe’stakeneachmorethan1600times. Stillit’sagoodbetthatasimplechangeinroutinewillbejustaseffective.Ifthatdoesn’tseemmentallywearingconsiderhowyougoaboutmostneurobicactivitiesinordinarylife.Mostlikelyyou’regoingthroughthemotions--drivingonroadsyouknowbyheartswallowingdowndinnerwithoutsavoringitstasteortexture.Changingthingswillforceyoutopayattentiontowhatyou’redoing.Eventhosewhoareskepticalaboutneurobics’potentialforpreventingAlzheimer’shavetoadmitthatisn’tabadthing. BruceFriedmanseemstosuggestthat
Text1 Extrapolatingfromtheadage"twoheadsarebetterthanone"agroupofeconomistsattheUniversityofIowahaslearnedhowtoturntheinstinctsofindividualsintousefulpredictionsofthefuture.SofartheresearchershavetestedtheirmethodbypredictingtheoutcomeofsucheventsastheAmericanpresidentialelectionandthenumberofbookssoldonthefirstdayofaHarryPotterrelease.Nowtheyhaveturnedtheirsightstoinfluenza. Theinfluenzainquestionisnotthepandemicbird-flu-relatedsortthatiscurrentlyacauseforconcernbutthequotidianbugthatlayspeoplelowparticularlyinwinter.Eventhisdiseaseisnottrivialitkillsforinstanceabout36000peopleinAmericaandpossiblyasmanyas12000peopleinBritaineveryyear.Ifoutbreakscouldbepredictedpatientsatparticularriskcouldbevaccinatedandmedicalpersonnelredeployedinanticipation.$oPhilipPolgreenandhiscolleagueswonderediftheycouldsucceedwheremedicalsciencehadfailedandgiveadequatewarningofinfluenzaoutbreaks. America’sCentresforDiseaseControlCDCtrackinfluenzacasesinthecountryastheyhappen.Aweeklatertheyreleasethedatainpartbyusingacolour-codedmap.Thecoloursreflectthelevelofinfluenzaactivityineachstateonafive-pointscalewithyellowrepresenting"noactivity"andredrepresenting"widespreadactivity". IntheirstudyDrPolgreenandhiscolleaguesgave60doctorsandnursesbasedinIowa100"fludollars"each.TheparticipantsusedthesetobuyandsellsharescodedaccordingtotheCDC’scoloursforaparticularweekinthefuturebasedonhowmanycasestheythoughtwouldoccurinthestateduringthatweek.Forexampleifaphysiciansawthreeyoungchildrenwithflusymptomsinhisofficehemightsellanyyellowshareshehadforthefollowingweekandbuyredones.Converselyifnoonehesawseemedtohavetroublewithinfluenzahemightbuymoreyelloworgreensporadicactivitysharesforeachofthenextfewweeks. OverthecourseofthefluseasonfromOctober2004toApril200552participantsloggedintothemarketastraders.Theywereabletobuyandselluptosevenweeksinadvance.Attheendoftheexperimenteachfludollarwasconvertedintoarealoneandgiventotheparticipantsintheformofaneducationalgrant. IftheCDC'smapturnsallreditmeans
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 2
IthasbeenahundredyearssincethelastbigoneinCaliforniathe1906SanFranciscoearthquakewhichhelpedgive1tomodemearthquakescience.Acenturylaterwehaveahighlysuccessful2calledplatetectonicsthatexplainswhy1906-typeearthquakeshappen--alongwithwhycontinentsdriftmountainsriseandvolcanoes3thePacificRim.Platetectonicsmaybeoneofthe4triumphsofthehumanmindgeology’s5tobiology’stheoryofevolution.Andyetscientistsstillcan’tsaywhenanearthquakewillhappen.Theycan’tevencome6. Whatscientistscandorightnowismakegoodmapsoffaultzonesand7outwhichonesareprobablydue8arupture.Andtheycanmakeforecasts.Aforecastmightsaythatoveracertainnumberofyearsthereisacertain9ofacertainmagnitudeearthquakeina10spot.Andthatyoushouldfixyourhousetoitsfoundationandgluethewaterheatertothewall. Turningforecastsintopredictions--"amagnitude7earthquakeis11herethreedaysfromnow"--maybeimpossiblebutscientistsaredoingeverythingtheycantosolvethe12ofearthquakes.Theybreakrocksinlaboratoriesstudyinghowstone13understress.Theyhike14ghostforestswheredeadtrees15oflong-agotsunamis.Theymakemapsofunsecuredbalancedrockstoseewherethegroundhas16inthepastandhowhard.Theydigditchesacrossfaultssearchingfortheactivetrace.Theyhavewiredupfaultzoneswithsomanysensorsitis17theEarthisapatient18intensivecare. 19wetellourselves--tryinghardtobepersuasive--theremustbesomewayto20orderandcriteriononallthatuntrustworthyground. 4
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