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Anyonewhohasfollowedrecenthistoricalliteraturecantestifytotherevolutionthatistakingplaceinhistoricalstudiesthatcurrentlyfashionablesubjectscomedirectlyfromthesociologycatalog:childhoodworkleisure.Thenewsubjectsareaccompaniedbynewmethods.Wherehistoryoncewasprimarilynarrativeitisnowentirelyanalytic.TheoldquestionsWhathappenedandHowdidithappenhavegivenwaytothequestionWhydidithappen46ProminentamongthemethodsusedtoanswerthequestionWhyispsychoanalysisanditsusehasgivenrisetopsychohistory. Psychohistorydoesnotmerelyusepsychologicalexplanationsinhistoricalcontexts.Historianshavealwaysusedsuchexplanationswhentheywereappropriateandwhentherewassufficientevidenceforthem.Butthispracticaluseofpsychologyisnotwhatpsychohistoriansintend.TheyarecommittednotjusttopsychologyingeneralbuttoFreudianpsychoanalysis.Thiscommitmentpreventsacommitmenttohistoryashistorianshavealwaysunderstoodit.47Psychohistoryderivesitsfactsnotfromhistorythedetailedrecordsofeventsandtheirsequencesbutfrompsychoanalysisoftheindividualswhomadehistoryanddeducesitstheoriesnotfromthisorthatinstanceintheirlivesbutfromaviewofhumannaturethattranscendsgoesbeyondhistory.Itdeniesthebasiccriterionofhistoricalevidence:thatevidencebepubliclyaccessibletoandthereforeassessablebyallhistorians.Anditviolatesthebasicbeliefofhistoricalmethod:thathistoriansbealerttothenegativeinstancesthatwouldrefutetheirtheses.48Psychohistoriansconvincedoftheabsoluterightnessoftheirtheoriesarealsoconvincedthattheirsisthedeepestexplanationofanyeventthatotherexplanationsfallshortoftruth. Psychohistoryisnotcontenttoviolatethedisciplineofhistory;italsoviolatesthepastitself.49Itdeniestothepastanyintegrityandwillofitsowninwhichpeopleactedoutofavarietyofmotivesandinwhicheventshadmanycausesandeffects.Itimposesuponthepastthesamedeterminismthatitimposesuponthepresentthusrobbingpeopleandeventsoftheirindividualityandoftheircomplexity.50Insteadofrespectingtheparticularityofthepastitassimilatesalleventspastandpresentintoasingledeterministicschemathatispresumedtobetrueatalltimesandinallcircumstances
Agreatdealofattentionisbeingpaidtodaytotheso-calleddigitaldivide--thedivisionoftheworldintotheinfoinformationrichandtheinfopoor.Andthatdividedoesexisttoday.MywifeandIlecturedaboutthisloomingdangertwentyyearsago.Whatwaslessvisiblethenhoweverwerethenewpositiveforcesthatworkagainstthedigitaldivide.Therearereasonstobeoptimistic. Therearetechnologicalreasonstohopethedigitaldividewillnarrow.AstheInternetbecomesmoreandmorecommercializeditisintheinterestofbusinesstouniversalizeaccess--afterallthemorepeopleonlinethemorepotentialcustomersthereare.MoreandmoregovernmentsafraidtheircountrieswillbeleftbehindwanttospreadInternetaccess.Withinthenextdecadeortwoonetotwobillionpeopleontheplanetwillbenettedtogether.AsaresultInowbelievethedigitaldividewillnarrowratherthanwidenintheyearsahead.AndthatisverygoodnewsbecausetheInternetmaywellbethemostpowerfultoolforcombatingworldpovertythatwe’’veeverhad. OfcoursetheuseoftheInternetisn’’ttheonlywaytodefeatpoverty.AndtheInternetisnottheonlytoolwehave.Butithasenormouspotential. Totakeadvantageofthistoolsomeimpoverishedcountrieswillhavetogetovertheiroutdatedanti-colonialprejudiceswithrespecttoforeigninvestment.CountriesthatstillthinkforeigninvestmentisaninvasionoftheirsovereigntymightwellstudythehistoryofinfrastructurethebasicstructuralfoundationsofasocietyintheUnitedStates.WhentheUnitedStatesbuiltitsindustrialinfrastructureitdidn’’thavethecapitaltodoso.AndthatiswhyAmerica’’sSecondWaveinfrastructure―includingroadsharborshighwaysportsandsoon--werebuiltwithforeigninvestment.TheEnglishtheGermanstheDutchandtheFrenchwereinvestinginBritain’’sformercolony.Theyfinancedthem.ImmigrantAmericansbuiltthem.GuesswhoownsthemnowTheAmericans.IbelievethesamethingwouldbetrueinplaceslikeBraziloranywhereelseforthatmatter.ThemoreforeigncapitalyouhavehelpingyoubuildyourThirdWaveinfrastructurewhichtodayisanelectronicinfrastructurethebetteroffyou’’regoingtobe.Thatdoesn’’tmeanlyingdownandbecomingfooledorlettingforeigncorporationsrununcontrolled.ButitdoesmeanrecognizinghowimportanttheycanbeinbuildingtheenergyandtelecominfrastructuresneededtotakefulladvantageoftheInternet. ThewritermentionedthecaseoftheUnitedStatestojustifythepolicyof______.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Anyonewhohasfollowedrecenthistoricalliteraturecantestifytotherevolutionthatistakingplaceinhistoricalstudiesthatcurrentlyfashionablesubjectscomedirectlyfromthesociologycatalog:childhoodworkleisure.Thenewsubjectsareaccompaniedbynewmethods.Wherehistoryoncewasprimarilynarrativeitisnowentirelyanalytic.TheoldquestionsWhathappenedandHowdidithappenhavegivenwaytothequestionWhydidithappen46ProminentamongthemethodsusedtoanswerthequestionWhyispsychoanalysisanditsusehasgivenrisetopsychohistory. Psychohistorydoesnotmerelyusepsychologicalexplanationsinhistoricalcontexts.Historianshavealwaysusedsuchexplanationswhentheywereappropriateandwhentherewassufficientevidenceforthem.Butthispracticaluseofpsychologyisnotwhatpsychohistoriansintend.TheyarecommittednotjusttopsychologyingeneralbuttoFreudianpsychoanalysis.Thiscommitmentpreventsacommitmenttohistoryashistorianshavealwaysunderstoodit.47Psychohistoryderivesitsfactsnotfromhistorythedetailedrecordsofeventsandtheirsequencesbutfrompsychoanalysisoftheindividualswhomadehistoryanddeducesitstheoriesnotfromthisorthatinstanceintheirlivesbutfromaviewofhumannaturethattranscendsgoesbeyondhistory.Itdeniesthebasiccriterionofhistoricalevidence:thatevidencebepubliclyaccessibletoandthereforeassessablebyallhistorians.Anditviolatesthebasicbeliefofhistoricalmethod:thathistoriansbealerttothenegativeinstancesthatwouldrefutetheirtheses.48Psychohistoriansconvincedoftheabsoluterightnessoftheirtheoriesarealsoconvincedthattheirsisthedeepestexplanationofanyeventthatotherexplanationsfallshortoftruth. Psychohistoryisnotcontenttoviolatethedisciplineofhistory;italsoviolatesthepastitself.49Itdeniestothepastanyintegrityandwillofitsowninwhichpeopleactedoutofavarietyofmotivesandinwhicheventshadmanycausesandeffects.Itimposesuponthepastthesamedeterminismthatitimposesuponthepresentthusrobbingpeopleandeventsoftheirindividualityandoftheircomplexity.50Insteadofrespectingtheparticularityofthepastitassimilatesalleventspastandpresentintoasingledeterministicschemathatispresumedtobetrueatalltimesandinallcircumstances
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
LateVictorianandmodernideasofculturearealwaysinsomesenseattributedtoMatthewArnoldwholargelythroughhisCultureandAnarchy1869placedthewordatthecenterofdebatesaboutthegoalsofintellectuallifeandhumanisticsociety.Arnolddefinedcultureasthepursuitoftotalperfectionbymeansofgettingtoknowonallmatterswhichmostconcernusthebestwhichhasbeenthoughtandsaidintheworld.ItwasArnold’’shopethatthroughthisknowledgewecanturnafreshandfreethoughtuponourstocknotionsandhabits.AlthoughArnold’’sthinkingaboutculturehelpedtodefinethepurposesoftheliberalartscurriculuminthecenturyfollowingthepublicationofCulturethreeconcreteformsofdisagreementwithArnold’’sviewshavehadconsiderableimpactoftheirown. ThefirstcanbeseenasprotestingArnold’’sfearfuldestinationofanarchyasculture’’senemy.Thisdivisionseemstosetupsimplyonemoreversionoftheoldstrugglebetweenaprivilegedpowerstructureandradicalchallengestoitsauthority.Arnoldcertainlytriedtodefinethearch-thelawfulorderofvalue-againstwhathesawasthean-archexistentialistdemocracyyethehimselfwasannoyedinhissoulbytheblindprideofthereactionarypowersinhisworld. AnotherformofoppositionsawArnold’’scultureasanabsurdperpetuationofclassicalandliterarylearningoutlookandprivilegesinaworldwheresciencehadbecomethenewarchandfromwhichanyreallyneworderofthinkingmustdevelop.AtthecenterofthetwoculturesdebatewerethegoalsoftheformalcurriculumintheeducationalsystemwhichisalwaystakentobetheprincipalvehiclethroughwhichArnoldiancultureoperates.HoweverArnoldhimselfhadviewedcultureasenactingitslifeinamuchmorebroadlyconceivedsetofinstitutions. TodayhoweverArnoldiancultureissustainedifindirectlybymulticulturalismamovementaimedlargelyatgainingrecognitionforvoicesandvisionsthatArnoldianculturehasimplicitlysuppressed.Atthelevelofeducationalpracticethemulticulturalistsareinterestedinlesseningthearbitraryauthoritythathighcultureexercisesoverthecurriculumwhilebringingintoplaytheprinciplethatwemustlearnwhatisrepresentativeforwehaveoveremphasizedwhatisexceptional.Themulticulturalists’’conflictwithArnoldianculturehasclearsimilaritiestotheradicalcritique;yetmulticulturalismaffirmsArnoldbyreturningusmorespecificallytoatensioninherentintheideaofcultureratherthantotheculture-anarchydivision. ThesocialcriticsdefendersofscienceandmulticulturalistsinsistthatArnold’’scultureissimplyadevicefororderingusabout.Insteaditisdesignedtoregisterthegatheringofideologicalcloudsonthehorizon.ThereisnoutopianmotiveinArnold’’scelebrationofperfection.TheideaofperfectionmatteredtoArnoldastheonlybackgroundagainstwhichwecouldformajustimageofouractualcircumstancesjustaswecanconceivefinersunsetsandunheardmelodies.ThiscapacitywhichallhumanspossessArnoldmadethefoundationandauthorityofculture. Wecaninferfromthetextthatthetwo-culturedebate
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Agreatdealofattentionisbeingpaidtodaytotheso-calleddigitaldivide--thedivisionoftheworldintotheinfoinformationrichandtheinfopoor.Andthatdividedoesexisttoday.MywifeandIlecturedaboutthisloomingdangertwentyyearsago.Whatwaslessvisiblethenhoweverwerethenewpositiveforcesthatworkagainstthedigitaldivide.Therearereasonstobeoptimistic. Therearetechnologicalreasonstohopethedigitaldividewillnarrow.AstheInternetbecomesmoreandmorecommercializeditisintheinterestofbusinesstouniversalizeaccess--afterallthemorepeopleonlinethemorepotentialcustomersthereare.MoreandmoregovernmentsafraidtheircountrieswillbeleftbehindwanttospreadInternetaccess.Withinthenextdecadeortwoonetotwobillionpeopleontheplanetwillbenettedtogether.AsaresultInowbelievethedigitaldividewillnarrowratherthanwidenintheyearsahead.AndthatisverygoodnewsbecausetheInternetmaywellbethemostpowerfultoolforcombatingworldpovertythatwe’’veeverhad. OfcoursetheuseoftheInternetisn’’ttheonlywaytodefeatpoverty.AndtheInternetisnottheonlytoolwehave.Butithasenormouspotential. Totakeadvantageofthistoolsomeimpoverishedcountrieswillhavetogetovertheiroutdatedanti-colonialprejudiceswithrespecttoforeigninvestment.CountriesthatstillthinkforeigninvestmentisaninvasionoftheirsovereigntymightwellstudythehistoryofinfrastructurethebasicstructuralfoundationsofasocietyintheUnitedStates.WhentheUnitedStatesbuiltitsindustrialinfrastructureitdidn’’thavethecapitaltodoso.AndthatiswhyAmerica’’sSecondWaveinfrastructure―includingroadsharborshighwaysportsandsoon--werebuiltwithforeigninvestment.TheEnglishtheGermanstheDutchandtheFrenchwereinvestinginBritain’’sformercolony.Theyfinancedthem.ImmigrantAmericansbuiltthem.GuesswhoownsthemnowTheAmericans.IbelievethesamethingwouldbetrueinplaceslikeBraziloranywhereelseforthatmatter.ThemoreforeigncapitalyouhavehelpingyoubuildyourThirdWaveinfrastructurewhichtodayisanelectronicinfrastructurethebetteroffyou’’regoingtobe.Thatdoesn’’tmeanlyingdownandbecomingfooledorlettingforeigncorporationsrununcontrolled.ButitdoesmeanrecognizinghowimportanttheycanbeinbuildingtheenergyandtelecominfrastructuresneededtotakefulladvantageoftheInternet. Digitaldivideissomething______.
Beingamanhasalwaysbeendangerous.Thereareabout105malesbornforevery100femalesbutthisratiodropstonearbalanceattheageofmaturityandamong70-year-oldtherearetwiceasmanywomenasmen.Butthegreatuniversalofmalemortalityisbeingchanged.Nowboybabiessurvivealmostaswellasgirlsdo.Thismeansthatforthefirsttimetherewillbeanexcessofboysinthosecrucialyearswhentheyaresearchingforamate.Moreimportantanotherchancefornaturalselectionhasbeenremoved.Fiftyyearsagothechanceofababyparticularlyaboybabysurvivingdependedonitsweight.Akilogramtoolightortooheavymeantalmostcertaindeath.Todayitmakesalmostnodifference.Sincemuchofthevariationisduetogenesonemoreagentofevolutionhasgone. Thereisanotherwaytocommitevolutionarysuicide:stayalivebuthavefewerchildren.Fewpeopleareasfertileasinthepast.Exceptinsomereligiouscommunitiesveryfewwomenhave15children.Nowadaysthenumberofbirthsliketheageofdeathhasbecomeaverage.Mostofushaveroughlythesamenumberofoffspring.Againdifferencesbetweenpeopleandtheopportunityfornaturalselectiontotakeadvantageofithavediminished.Indiashowswhatishappening.Thecountryofferswealthforafewinthegreatcitiesandpovertyfortheremainingtribalpeoples.Thegrandmediocrityoftoday--everyonebeingthesameinsurvivalandnumberofoffspring--meansthatnaturalselectionhaslost80%ofitspowerinupper-middle-classIndiacomparedtothetribes. Forusthismeansthatevolutionisover;thebiologicalUtopiahasarrived.Strangelyithasinvolvedlittlephysicalchange.Nootherspeciesfillssomanyplacesinnature.Butinthepast100000years--eventhepast100years--ourliveshavebeentransformedbutourbodieshavenot.Wedidnotevolvebecausemachinesandsocietydiditforus.Darwinhadaphrasetodescribethoseignorantofevolution:theylookatanorganicbeingasasavagelooksatashipasatsomethingwhollybeyondhiscomprehension.Nodoubtwewillremembera20thcenturywayoflifebeyondcomprehensionforitsugliness.ButhoweveramazedourdescendantsmaybeathowfarfromUtopiaweweretheywilllookjustlikeus. Whatusedtobethedangerinbeingamanaccordingtothefirstparagraph
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Writeanessayof160-200wordsbasedonthefollowingdrawing.Inyouressayyoushouldfirstdescribethedrawingtheninterpretitsmeaningandgiveyourcommentonit. YoushouldwriteneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.20points
WhenitcomestotheslowingeconomyEllenSperoisn’’tbitinghernailsjustyet.Butthe47-year-oldmanicuristisn’’tcuttingfilingorpolishingasmanynailsasshe’’dliketoeither.Mostofherclientsspend＄12to＄50weeklybutlastmonthtwolongtimecustomerssuddenlystoppedshowingup.Speroblamesthesofteningeconomy.I’’magoodeconomicindicatorshesays.Iprovideaservicethatpeoplecandowithoutwhenthey’’reconcernedaboutsavingsomedollars.SoSperoisdownscalingshoppingatmiddle-browDillard’’sdepartmentstorenearhersuburbanClevelandhomeinsteadofNeimanMarcus.Idon’’tknowifotherclientsaregoingtoabandonmetooshesays. EvenbeforeAlanGreenspan’’sadmissionthatAmerica’’sred-hoteconomyiscoolinglotsofworkingfolkshadalreadyseensignsoftheslowdownthemselves.FromcardealershipstoGapoutletssaleshavebeenlaggingformonthsasshopperstempertheirspending.Forretailerswholastyeartookin24percentoftheirrevenuebetweenThanksgivingandChristmasthecautiousapproachiscomingatacrucialtime.Alreadyexpertssayholidaysalesareoff7percentfromlastyear’’space.Butdon’’tsoundanyalarmsjustyet.Consumersseemonlymildlyconcernednotpanickedandmanysaytheyremainoptimisticabouttheeconomy’’slong-termprospectsevenastheydosomemodestbelt-tightening. Consumerssaythey’’renotindespairbecausedespitethedreadfulheadlinestheirownfortunesstillfeelprettygood.Homepricesareholdingsteadyinmostregions.InManhattanthere’’sanewgoldrushhappeninginthe＄4millionto＄10millionrangepredominantlyfedbyWallStreetbonusessaysbrokerBarbaraCorcoran.InSanFranciscopricesarestillrisingevenasfrenziedoverbiddingquiets.Insteadof20to30offersnowmaybeyouonlygettwoorthreesaysJohnTealdiaBayAreareal-estatebroker.Andmostfolksstillfeelprettycomfortableabouttheirabilitytofindandkeepajob. Manyfolksseesilverliningstothisslowdown.Potentialhomebuyerswouldcheerforlowerinterestrates.Employerswouldn’’tmindalittlefewerbubblesinthejobmarket.Manyconsumersseemtohavebeeninfluencedbystock-marketswingswhichinvestorsnowviewasanecessaryingredienttoasustainedboom.Dinersmightseeanupsidetoo.GettingatableatManhattan’’shotnewAlainDucasserestaurantusedtobeimpossible.Notanymore.ForthatGreenspan&Co.maystillbeworthtoasting. Whenmentioningthe＄4millionto＄10millionrangeLine3Paragraph3theauthoristalkingabout
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Anyonewhohasfollowedrecenthistoricalliteraturecantestifytotherevolutionthatistakingplaceinhistoricalstudiesthatcurrentlyfashionablesubjectscomedirectlyfromthesociologycatalog:childhoodworkleisure.Thenewsubjectsareaccompaniedbynewmethods.Wherehistoryoncewasprimarilynarrativeitisnowentirelyanalytic.TheoldquestionsWhathappenedandHowdidithappenhavegivenwaytothequestionWhydidithappen46ProminentamongthemethodsusedtoanswerthequestionWhyispsychoanalysisanditsusehasgivenrisetopsychohistory. Psychohistorydoesnotmerelyusepsychologicalexplanationsinhistoricalcontexts.Historianshavealwaysusedsuchexplanationswhentheywereappropriateandwhentherewassufficientevidenceforthem.Butthispracticaluseofpsychologyisnotwhatpsychohistoriansintend.TheyarecommittednotjusttopsychologyingeneralbuttoFreudianpsychoanalysis.Thiscommitmentpreventsacommitmenttohistoryashistorianshavealwaysunderstoodit.47Psychohistoryderivesitsfactsnotfromhistorythedetailedrecordsofeventsandtheirsequencesbutfrompsychoanalysisoftheindividualswhomadehistoryanddeducesitstheoriesnotfromthisorthatinstanceintheirlivesbutfromaviewofhumannaturethattranscendsgoesbeyondhistory.Itdeniesthebasiccriterionofhistoricalevidence:thatevidencebepubliclyaccessibletoandthereforeassessablebyallhistorians.Anditviolatesthebasicbeliefofhistoricalmethod:thathistoriansbealerttothenegativeinstancesthatwouldrefutetheirtheses.48Psychohistoriansconvincedoftheabsoluterightnessoftheirtheoriesarealsoconvincedthattheirsisthedeepestexplanationofanyeventthatotherexplanationsfallshortoftruth. Psychohistoryisnotcontenttoviolatethedisciplineofhistory;italsoviolatesthepastitself.49Itdeniestothepastanyintegrityandwillofitsowninwhichpeopleactedoutofavarietyofmotivesandinwhicheventshadmanycausesandeffects.Itimposesuponthepastthesamedeterminismthatitimposesuponthepresentthusrobbingpeopleandeventsoftheirindividualityandoftheircomplexity.50Insteadofrespectingtheparticularityofthepastitassimilatesalleventspastandpresentintoasingledeterministicschemathatispresumedtobetrueatalltimesandinallcircumstances Anyonewhohasfollowedrecenthistoricalliteraturecantestifytotherevolutionthatistakingplaceinhistoricalstudiesthatcurrentlyfashionablesubjectscomedirectlyfromthesociologycatalog:childhoodworkleisure.Thenewsubjectsareaccompaniedbynewmethods.Wherehistoryoncewasprimarilynarrativeitisnowentirelyanalytic.TheoldquestionsWhathappenedandHowdidithappenhavegivenwaytothequestionWhydidithappen46ProminentamongthemethodsusedtoanswerthequestionWhyispsychoanalysisanditsusehasgivenrisetopsychohistory. Psychohistorydoesnotmerelyusepsychologicalexplanationsinhistoricalcontexts.Historianshavealwaysusedsuchexplanationswhentheywereappropriateandwhentherewassufficientevidenceforthem.Butthispracticaluseofpsychologyisnotwhatpsychohistoriansintend.TheyarecommittednotjusttopsychologyingeneralbuttoFreudianpsychoanalysis.Thiscommitmentpreventsacommitmenttohistoryashistorianshavealwaysunderstoodit.47Psychohistoryderivesitsfactsnotfromhistorythedetailedrecordsofeventsandtheirsequencesbutfrompsychoanalysisoftheindividualswhomadehistoryanddeducesitstheoriesnotfromthisorthatinstanceintheirlivesbutfromaviewofhumannaturethattranscendsgoesbeyondhistory.Itdeniesthebasiccriterionofhistoricalevidence:thatevidencebepubliclyaccessibletoandthereforeassessablebyallhistorians.Anditviolatesthebasicbeliefofhistoricalmethod:thathistoriansbealerttothenegativeinstancesthatwouldrefutetheirtheses.48Psychohistoriansconvincedoftheabsoluterightnessoftheirtheoriesarealsoconvincedthattheirsisthedeepestexplanationofanyeventthatotherexplanationsfallshortoftruth. Psychohistoryisnotcontenttoviolatethedisciplineofhistory;italsoviolatesthepastitself.49Itdeniestothepastanyintegrityandwillofitsowninwhichpeopleactedoutofavarietyofmotivesandinwhicheventshadmanycausesandeffects.Itimposesuponthepastthesamedeterminismthatitimposesuponthepresentthusrobbingpeopleandeventsoftheirindividualityandoftheircomplexity.50Insteadofrespectingtheparticularityofthepastitassimilatesalleventspastandpresentintoasingledeterministicschemathatispresumedtobetrueatalltimesandinallcircumstances
WhenitcomestotheslowingeconomyEllenSperoisn’’tbitinghernailsjustyet.Butthe47-year-oldmanicuristisn’’tcuttingfilingorpolishingasmanynailsasshe’’dliketoeither.Mostofherclientsspend＄12to＄50weeklybutlastmonthtwolongtimecustomerssuddenlystoppedshowingup.Speroblamesthesofteningeconomy.I’’magoodeconomicindicatorshesays.Iprovideaservicethatpeoplecandowithoutwhenthey’’reconcernedaboutsavingsomedollars.SoSperoisdownscalingshoppingatmiddle-browDillard’’sdepartmentstorenearhersuburbanClevelandhomeinsteadofNeimanMarcus.Idon’’tknowifotherclientsaregoingtoabandonmetooshesays. EvenbeforeAlanGreenspan’’sadmissionthatAmerica’’sred-hoteconomyiscoolinglotsofworkingfolkshadalreadyseensignsoftheslowdownthemselves.FromcardealershipstoGapoutletssaleshavebeenlaggingformonthsasshopperstempertheirspending.Forretailerswholastyeartookin24percentoftheirrevenuebetweenThanksgivingandChristmasthecautiousapproachiscomingatacrucialtime.Alreadyexpertssayholidaysalesareoff7percentfromlastyear’’space.Butdon’’tsoundanyalarmsjustyet.Consumersseemonlymildlyconcernednotpanickedandmanysaytheyremainoptimisticabouttheeconomy’’slong-termprospectsevenastheydosomemodestbelt-tightening. Consumerssaythey’’renotindespairbecausedespitethedreadfulheadlinestheirownfortunesstillfeelprettygood.Homepricesareholdingsteadyinmostregions.InManhattanthere’’sanewgoldrushhappeninginthe＄4millionto＄10millionrangepredominantlyfedbyWallStreetbonusessaysbrokerBarbaraCorcoran.InSanFranciscopricesarestillrisingevenasfrenziedoverbiddingquiets.Insteadof20to30offersnowmaybeyouonlygettwoorthreesaysJohnTealdiaBayAreareal-estatebroker.Andmostfolksstillfeelprettycomfortableabouttheirabilitytofindandkeepajob. Manyfolksseesilverliningstothisslowdown.Potentialhomebuyerswouldcheerforlowerinterestrates.Employerswouldn’’tmindalittlefewerbubblesinthejobmarket.Manyconsumersseemtohavebeeninfluencedbystock-marketswingswhichinvestorsnowviewasanecessaryingredienttoasustainedboom.Dinersmightseeanupsidetoo.GettingatableatManhattan’’shotnewAlainDucasserestaurantusedtobeimpossible.Notanymore.ForthatGreenspan&Co.maystillbeworthtoasting. ByEllenSperoisn’’tbitinghernailsjustyetLine1Paragraph1theauthormeans
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
WhenitcomestotheslowingeconomyEllenSperoisn’’tbitinghernailsjustyet.Butthe47-year-oldmanicuristisn’’tcuttingfilingorpolishingasmanynailsasshe’’dliketoeither.Mostofherclientsspend＄12to＄50weeklybutlastmonthtwolongtimecustomerssuddenlystoppedshowingup.Speroblamesthesofteningeconomy.I’’magoodeconomicindicatorshesays.Iprovideaservicethatpeoplecandowithoutwhenthey’’reconcernedaboutsavingsomedollars.SoSperoisdownscalingshoppingatmiddle-browDillard’’sdepartmentstorenearhersuburbanClevelandhomeinsteadofNeimanMarcus.Idon’’tknowifotherclientsaregoingtoabandonmetooshesays. EvenbeforeAlanGreenspan’’sadmissionthatAmerica’’sred-hoteconomyiscoolinglotsofworkingfolkshadalreadyseensignsoftheslowdownthemselves.FromcardealershipstoGapoutletssaleshavebeenlaggingformonthsasshopperstempertheirspending.Forretailerswholastyeartookin24percentoftheirrevenuebetweenThanksgivingandChristmasthecautiousapproachiscomingatacrucialtime.Alreadyexpertssayholidaysalesareoff7percentfromlastyear’’space.Butdon’’tsoundanyalarmsjustyet.Consumersseemonlymildlyconcernednotpanickedandmanysaytheyremainoptimisticabouttheeconomy’’slong-termprospectsevenastheydosomemodestbelt-tightening. Consumerssaythey’’renotindespairbecausedespitethedreadfulheadlinestheirownfortunesstillfeelprettygood.Homepricesareholdingsteadyinmostregions.InManhattanthere’’sanewgoldrushhappeninginthe＄4millionto＄10millionrangepredominantlyfedbyWallStreetbonusessaysbrokerBarbaraCorcoran.InSanFranciscopricesarestillrisingevenasfrenziedoverbiddingquiets.Insteadof20to30offersnowmaybeyouonlygettwoorthreesaysJohnTealdiaBayAreareal-estatebroker.Andmostfolksstillfeelprettycomfortableabouttheirabilitytofindandkeepajob. Manyfolksseesilverliningstothisslowdown.Potentialhomebuyerswouldcheerforlowerinterestrates.Employerswouldn’’tmindalittlefewerbubblesinthejobmarket.Manyconsumersseemtohavebeeninfluencedbystock-marketswingswhichinvestorsnowviewasanecessaryingredienttoasustainedboom.Dinersmightseeanupsidetoo.GettingatableatManhattan’’shotnewAlainDucasserestaurantusedtobeimpossible.Notanymore.ForthatGreenspan&Co.maystillbeworthtoasting. Towhichofthefollowingistheauthorlikelytoagree
LateVictorianandmodernideasofculturearealwaysinsomesenseattributedtoMatthewArnoldwholargelythroughhisCultureandAnarchy1869placedthewordatthecenterofdebatesaboutthegoalsofintellectuallifeandhumanisticsociety.Arnolddefinedcultureasthepursuitoftotalperfectionbymeansofgettingtoknowonallmatterswhichmostconcernusthebestwhichhasbeenthoughtandsaidintheworld.ItwasArnold’’shopethatthroughthisknowledgewecanturnafreshandfreethoughtuponourstocknotionsandhabits.AlthoughArnold’’sthinkingaboutculturehelpedtodefinethepurposesoftheliberalartscurriculuminthecenturyfollowingthepublicationofCulturethreeconcreteformsofdisagreementwithArnold’’sviewshavehadconsiderableimpactoftheirown. ThefirstcanbeseenasprotestingArnold’’sfearfuldestinationofanarchyasculture’’senemy.Thisdivisionseemstosetupsimplyonemoreversionoftheoldstrugglebetweenaprivilegedpowerstructureandradicalchallengestoitsauthority.Arnoldcertainlytriedtodefinethearch-thelawfulorderofvalue-againstwhathesawasthean-archexistentialistdemocracyyethehimselfwasannoyedinhissoulbytheblindprideofthereactionarypowersinhisworld. AnotherformofoppositionsawArnold’’scultureasanabsurdperpetuationofclassicalandliterarylearningoutlookandprivilegesinaworldwheresciencehadbecomethenewarchandfromwhichanyreallyneworderofthinkingmustdevelop.AtthecenterofthetwoculturesdebatewerethegoalsoftheformalcurriculumintheeducationalsystemwhichisalwaystakentobetheprincipalvehiclethroughwhichArnoldiancultureoperates.HoweverArnoldhimselfhadviewedcultureasenactingitslifeinamuchmorebroadlyconceivedsetofinstitutions. TodayhoweverArnoldiancultureissustainedifindirectlybymulticulturalismamovementaimedlargelyatgainingrecognitionforvoicesandvisionsthatArnoldianculturehasimplicitlysuppressed.Atthelevelofeducationalpracticethemulticulturalistsareinterestedinlesseningthearbitraryauthoritythathighcultureexercisesoverthecurriculumwhilebringingintoplaytheprinciplethatwemustlearnwhatisrepresentativeforwehaveoveremphasizedwhatisexceptional.Themulticulturalists’’conflictwithArnoldianculturehasclearsimilaritiestotheradicalcritique;yetmulticulturalismaffirmsArnoldbyreturningusmorespecificallytoatensioninherentintheideaofcultureratherthantotheculture-anarchydivision. ThesocialcriticsdefendersofscienceandmulticulturalistsinsistthatArnold’’scultureissimplyadevicefororderingusabout.Insteaditisdesignedtoregisterthegatheringofideologicalcloudsonthehorizon.ThereisnoutopianmotiveinArnold’’scelebrationofperfection.TheideaofperfectionmatteredtoArnoldastheonlybackgroundagainstwhichwecouldformajustimageofouractualcircumstancesjustaswecanconceivefinersunsetsandunheardmelodies.ThiscapacitywhichallhumanspossessArnoldmadethefoundationandauthorityofculture. Arnoldwouldmostlikelydisagreewiththestatementthat
Beingamanhasalwaysbeendangerous.Thereareabout105malesbornforevery100femalesbutthisratiodropstonearbalanceattheageofmaturityandamong70-year-oldtherearetwiceasmanywomenasmen.Butthegreatuniversalofmalemortalityisbeingchanged.Nowboybabiessurvivealmostaswellasgirlsdo.Thismeansthatforthefirsttimetherewillbeanexcessofboysinthosecrucialyearswhentheyaresearchingforamate.Moreimportantanotherchancefornaturalselectionhasbeenremoved.Fiftyyearsagothechanceofababyparticularlyaboybabysurvivingdependedonitsweight.Akilogramtoolightortooheavymeantalmostcertaindeath.Todayitmakesalmostnodifference.Sincemuchofthevariationisduetogenesonemoreagentofevolutionhasgone. Thereisanotherwaytocommitevolutionarysuicide:stayalivebuthavefewerchildren.Fewpeopleareasfertileasinthepast.Exceptinsomereligiouscommunitiesveryfewwomenhave15children.Nowadaysthenumberofbirthsliketheageofdeathhasbecomeaverage.Mostofushaveroughlythesamenumberofoffspring.Againdifferencesbetweenpeopleandtheopportunityfornaturalselectiontotakeadvantageofithavediminished.Indiashowswhatishappening.Thecountryofferswealthforafewinthegreatcitiesandpovertyfortheremainingtribalpeoples.Thegrandmediocrityoftoday--everyonebeingthesameinsurvivalandnumberofoffspring--meansthatnaturalselectionhaslost80%ofitspowerinupper-middle-classIndiacomparedtothetribes. Forusthismeansthatevolutionisover;thebiologicalUtopiahasarrived.Strangelyithasinvolvedlittlephysicalchange.Nootherspeciesfillssomanyplacesinnature.Butinthepast100000years--eventhepast100years--ourliveshavebeentransformedbutourbodieshavenot.Wedidnotevolvebecausemachinesandsocietydiditforus.Darwinhadaphrasetodescribethoseignorantofevolution:theylookatanorganicbeingasasavagelooksatashipasatsomethingwhollybeyondhiscomprehension.Nodoubtwewillremembera20thcenturywayoflifebeyondcomprehensionforitsugliness.ButhoweveramazedourdescendantsmaybeathowfarfromUtopiaweweretheywilllookjustlikeus. Theauthorarguesthatourbodieshavestoppedevolvingbecause__________.

痰食阻滞，胃中不和之不寐，治宜

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