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Newsreportsoftenfocusondisputesamongscientistsoverthevalidityofpreliminaryuntesteddatahypothesesandmodelswhichbydefinitionaretentative.Thisaspectofscience-1becauseithasnotbeenwidely2andaccepted-iscalledfrontierscience.Themedia3tofocusonfrontiersciencebecauseitsso-calledbreakthroughsmakegoodnewsstories.Justbecausesomethingisinthe4offrontierscience5doesnotmeanthatitisn’’tworthyofseriousconsideration;6suchmattersneedfurtherstudytodeterminetheir7. 8contrastconsensusscienceconsistsofdatamodelstheoriesandlawsthatarewidelyaccepted.Thisaspectofscienceisveryreliablebutis9considerednewsworthy.Thetroubleisthatthewordscienceisusedto10bothfrontierandconsensussciencewithout11Themediapreference12frontiersciencegivesthepublicthe13impressionthatfrontierscience14verycertainconclusionswhichmayormaynotbecorrect. However15somefrontierscienceislatershowntobeunreliablemembersofthepublicoftenfalsely16thatconsensusscienceisalsoquiteuncertain.Weneedtotakebothfrontierandconsensusscience17butrecognizetheirdifferences.Onewaytofindoutwhatscientistsgenerallyagree18istoseekoutreportsbyscientificbodiesthatattemptto19consensusin20areasofscienceandtechnology.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
HuntingforajoblatelastyearlawyerGantRedmonstumbledacrossCareerBuilderajobdatabaseontheInternet.Hesearcheditwithnosuccessbutwasattractedbythesite’’spersonalsearchagent.It’’saninteractivefeaturethatletsvisitorskeyinjobcriteriasuchaslocationtitleandsalarythenE-mailsthemwhenamatchingpositionispostedinthedatabase.RedmonchosethekeywordslegalintellectualpropertyandWashingtonD.C.Threeweekslaterhegothisfirstnotificationofanopening.IstruckgoldsaysRedmonwhoE-mailedhisresumetotheemployerandwonapositionasin-housecounselforacompany. Withthousandsofcareer-relatedsitesontheInternetfindingpromisingopeningscanbetime-consumingandinefficient.Searchagentsreducetheneedforrepeatedvisitstothedatabases.ButalthoughasearchagentworkedforRedmoncareerexpertsseedrawbacks.Narrowingyourcriteriaforexamplemayworkagainstyou:Everytimeyouansweraquestionyoueliminateapossibilitysaysoneexpert. Foranyjobsearchyoushouldstartwithanarrowconceptwhatyouthinkyouwanttodo--thenbroadenit.Noneoftheseprogramsdothatsaysanotherexpert.There’’snocareercounselingimplicitinallofthis.Insteadthebeststrategyistousetheagentasakindoftipservicetokeepabreastofjobsinaparticulardatabase;whenyougetE-mailconsideritaremindertocheckthedatabaseagain.Iwouldnotrelyonagentsforfindingeverythingthatisaddedtoadatabasethatmightinterestmesaystheauthorofajob-searchingguide. Somesitesdesigntheiragentstotemptjobhunterstoreturn.WhenCareerSite’’sagentsendsoutmessagestothosewhohavesignedupforitsserviceforexampleitincludesonlythreepotentialjobs--thoseitconsidersthebestmatches.Theremaybemorematchesinthedatabase;jobhunterswillhavetovisitthesiteagaintofindthem--andtheydo.OnthedayafterwesendourmessagesweseeasharpincreaseinourtrafficsaysSethPeetsvicepresidentofmarketingforCareerSite. Eventhosewhoaren’’thuntingforjobsmayfindsearchagentsworthwhile.Someusethemtokeepaclosewatchonthedemandfortheirlineofworkorgatherinformationoncompensationtoannthemselveswhennegotiatingforaraise.AlthoughhappilyemployedRedmonmaintainshisagentatCareerBuilder.Youalwayskeepyoureyesopenhesays.Workingwithapersonalsearchagentmeanshavinganothersetofeyeslookingoutforyou. HowdidRedmonfindhisjob
DoanimalshaverightsThisishowthequestionisusuallyput.Itsoundslikeausefulground-clearingwaytostart.71.Actuallyitisn’’tbecauseitassumesthatthereisanagreedaccountofhumanfightswhichissomethingtheworlddoesnothave. Ononeviewofrightstobesureitnecessarilyfollowsthatanimalshavenone.72.Somephilosophersarguethatrightsexistonlywithinasocialcontractaspartofanexchangeofdutiesandentitlements.Thereforeanimalscannothaverights.Theideaofpunishingatigerthatkillssomebodyisabsurdforexactlythesamereasonsoistheideathattigershaverights.Howeverthisisonlyoneaccountandbynomeansanuncontestedone.Itdeniesrightsnotonlytoanimalsbutalsotosomepeople―forinstancetoinfantsthementallyincapableandfuturegenerations.Inadditionitisunclearwhatforceacontractcanhaveforpeoplewhoneverconsentedtoit:howdoyoureplytosomebodywhosaysIdon’’tlikethiscontract Thepointisthis:withoutagreementontherightsofpeoplearguingabouttherightsofanimalsisfruitless.73.Itleadsthediscussiontoextremesattheoutset:itinvitesyoutothinkthatanimalsshouldbetreatedeitherwiththeconsiderationhumansextendtootherhumansorwithnoconsiderationatall.Thisisafalsechoice.Bettertostartwithanothermorefundamentalquestion:isthewaywetreatanimalsamoralissueatall Manydenyit.74.Arguingfromtheviewthathumansaredifferentfromanimalsineveryrelevantrespectextremistsofthiskindthinkthatanimalslieoutsidetheareaofmoralchoice.Anyregardforthesufferingofanimalsisseenatamistake―asentimentaldisplacementoffeelingthatshouldproperlybedirectedtootherhumans. Thisviewwhichholdsthattorturingamonkeyismorallyequivalenttochoppingwoodmayseembravelylogical.Infactitissimplyshallow:theconfusedcentreisrighttorejectit.Themostelementaryformofmoralreasoning―theethicalequivalentoflearningtocrawl―istoweighother’’sinterestsagainstone’’sown.Thisinturnrequiressympathyandimagination:withoutwhichthereisnocapacityformoralthought.Toseeananimalinpainisenoughformosttoengagesympathy.75.Whenthathappensitisnotamistake:itismankind’’sinstinctformoralreasoninginactionaninstinctthatshouldbeencouragedratherthanlaughedat.
Ifyouintendusinghumorinyourtalktomakepeoplesmileyoumustknowhowtoidentifysharedexperiencesandproblems.Yourhumormustberelevanttotheaudienceandshouldhelptoshowthemthatyouareoneofthemorthatyouunderstandtheirsituationandareinsympathywiththeirpointofview.Dependingonwhomyouareaddressingtheproblemswillbedifferent.Ifyouaretalkingtoagroupofmanagersyoumayrefertothedisorganizedmethodsoftheirsecretaries;alternativelyifyouareaddressingsecretariesyoumaywanttocommentontheirdisorganizedbosses. HereisanexamplewhichIheardatanurses’’conventionofastorywhichworkswellbecausetheaudienceallsharedthesameviewofdoctors.AmanarrivesinheavenandisbeingshownaroundbySt.Peter.Heseeswonderfulaccommodationsbeautifulgardenssunnyweatherandsoon.Everyoneisverypeacefulpoliteandfriendlyuntilwaitinginalineforlunchthenewarrivalissuddenlypushedasidebyamaninawhitecoatwhorushestotheheadofthelinegrabshisfoodandstompsovertoatablebyhimself.WhoisthatthenewarrivalaskedSt.Peter.Ohthat’’sGodcamethereplybutsometimeshethinkshe’’sadoctor. Ifyouarepartofthegroupwhichyouareaddressingyouwillbeinapositiontoknowtheexperiencesandproblemswhicharecommontoallofyouandit’’11beappropriateforyoutomakeapassingremarkabouttheinediblecanteenfoodorthechairman’’snotoriousbadtasteinties.Withotheraudiencesyoumustn’’tattempttocutinwithhumorastheywillresentanoutsidermakingdisparagingremarksabouttheircanteenortheirchairman.YouwillbeonsafergroundifyousticktoscapegoatslikethePostOfficeorthetelephonesystem. Ifyoufeelawkwardbeinghumorousyoumustpracticesothatitbecomesmorenatural.Includeafewcasualandapparentlyoff-the-cuffremarkswhichyoucandeliverinarelaxedandunforcedmanner.Oftenit’’sthedeliverywhichcausestheaudiencetosmilesospeakslowlyandrememberthataraisedeyebroworanunbelievinglookmayhelptoshowthatyouaremakingalight-heartedremark. Lookforthehumor.Itoftencomesfromtheunexpected.AtwistonafamiliarquoteIfatfirstyoudon’’tsucceedgiveuporaplayonwordsoronasituation.Searchforexaggerationandunderstatements.Lookatyourtalkandpickoutafewwordsorsentenceswhichyoucanturnaboutandinjectwithhumor. Toachievethedesiredresulthumorousstoriesshouldbedelivered
Ifyouintendusinghumorinyourtalktomakepeoplesmileyoumustknowhowtoidentifysharedexperiencesandproblems.Yourhumormustberelevanttotheaudienceandshouldhelptoshowthemthatyouareoneofthemorthatyouunderstandtheirsituationandareinsympathywiththeirpointofview.Dependingonwhomyouareaddressingtheproblemswillbedifferent.Ifyouaretalkingtoagroupofmanagersyoumayrefertothedisorganizedmethodsoftheirsecretaries;alternativelyifyouareaddressingsecretariesyoumaywanttocommentontheirdisorganizedbosses. HereisanexamplewhichIheardatanurses’’conventionofastorywhichworkswellbecausetheaudienceallsharedthesameviewofdoctors.AmanarrivesinheavenandisbeingshownaroundbySt.Peter.Heseeswonderfulaccommodationsbeautifulgardenssunnyweatherandsoon.Everyoneisverypeacefulpoliteandfriendlyuntilwaitinginalineforlunchthenewarrivalissuddenlypushedasidebyamaninawhitecoatwhorushestotheheadofthelinegrabshisfoodandstompsovertoatablebyhimself.WhoisthatthenewarrivalaskedSt.Peter.Ohthat’’sGodcamethereplybutsometimeshethinkshe’’sadoctor. Ifyouarepartofthegroupwhichyouareaddressingyouwillbeinapositiontoknowtheexperiencesandproblemswhicharecommontoallofyouandit’’11beappropriateforyoutomakeapassingremarkabouttheinediblecanteenfoodorthechairman’’snotoriousbadtasteinties.Withotheraudiencesyoumustn’’tattempttocutinwithhumorastheywillresentanoutsidermakingdisparagingremarksabouttheircanteenortheirchairman.YouwillbeonsafergroundifyousticktoscapegoatslikethePostOfficeorthetelephonesystem. Ifyoufeelawkwardbeinghumorousyoumustpracticesothatitbecomesmorenatural.Includeafewcasualandapparentlyoff-the-cuffremarkswhichyoucandeliverinarelaxedandunforcedmanner.Oftenit’’sthedeliverywhichcausestheaudiencetosmilesospeakslowlyandrememberthataraisedeyebroworanunbelievinglookmayhelptoshowthatyouaremakingalight-heartedremark. Lookforthehumor.Itoftencomesfromtheunexpected.AtwistonafamiliarquoteIfatfirstyoudon’’tsucceedgiveuporaplayonwordsoronasituation.Searchforexaggerationandunderstatements.Lookatyourtalkandpickoutafewwordsorsentenceswhichyoucanturnaboutandinjectwithhumor. Thejokeaboutdoctorsimpliesthatintheeyesofnursestheyare
WildBillDonovanwouldhavelovedtheIntemet.TheAmericanspymasterwhobuilttheOfficeofStrategicServicesinWorldWarⅡandlaterlaidtherootsfortheCIAwasfascinatedwithinformation.Donovanbelievedinusingwhatevertoolscametohandinthegreatgameofespionage--spyingasaprofession.ThesedaystheNetwhichhasalreadyre-madesucheverydaypastimesasbuyingbooksandsendingmailisreshapingDonovan’’svocationaswell. Thelatestrevolutionisn’’tsimplyamatterofgentlemenreadingothergentlemen’’se-mail.Thatkindofelectronicspyinghasbeengoingonfordecades.InthepastthreeorfouryearstheWorldWideWebhasgivenbirthtoawholeindustryofpoint-and-clickspying.Thespookscallitopen-sourceintelligenceandastheNetgrowsitisbecomingincreasinglyinfluential.In1995theCIAheldacontesttoseewhocouldcompilethemostdataaboutBumndi.ThewinnerbyalargemarginwasatinyVirginiacompanycalledOpenSourceSolutionswhoseclearadvantagewasitsmasteryoftheelectronicworld. AmongthefirmsmakingthebiggestsplashinthisnewworldisStraiffordInc.aprivateintelligence-analysisfirmbasedinAustinTexas.StraiffordmakesmoneybysellingtheresultsofspyingcoveringnationsfromChiletoRussiatocorporationslikeenergy-servicesfirmMcDermottInternational.Manyofitspredictionsareavailableonlineatwww.straitfordcom. StraiffordPresidentGeorgeFriedmansaysheseestheonlineworldasakindofmutuallyreinforcingtoolforbothinformationcollectionanddistributionaspymaster’’sdream.LastweekhisfirmwasbusyvacuumingupdatabitsfromthefarcomersoftheworldandpredictingacrisisinUkraine.Assoonasthatreportrunswe’’IIsuddenlyget500newIntemetsinge-upsfromUkrainesaysFriedmanaformerpoliticalscienceprofessor.Andwe’’11hearbackfromsomeofthem.Open-sourcespyingdoeshaveitsrisksofcoursesinceitcanbedifficulttotellgoodinformationfrombad.That’’swhereStraiffordearnsitskeep. Fridmanreliesonaleanstaffof20inAustin.Severalofhisstaffmembershavemilitary-intelligencebackgrounds.Heseesthefirm’’soutsiderstatusasthekeytoitssuccess.Straifford’’sbriefsdon’’tsoundliketheusualWashingtonback-and-forthingwherebyagenciesavoiddramaticdeclarationsonthechancetheymightbewrong.StraitfordsaysFriedmantakesprideinitsindependentvoice. Donovan’’sstoryismentionedinthetextto
DoanimalshaverightsThisishowthequestionisusuallyput.Itsoundslikeausefulground-clearingwaytostart.71.Actuallyitisn’’tbecauseitassumesthatthereisanagreedaccountofhumanfightswhichissomethingtheworlddoesnothave. Ononeviewofrightstobesureitnecessarilyfollowsthatanimalshavenone.72.Somephilosophersarguethatrightsexistonlywithinasocialcontractaspartofanexchangeofdutiesandentitlements.Thereforeanimalscannothaverights.Theideaofpunishingatigerthatkillssomebodyisabsurdforexactlythesamereasonsoistheideathattigershaverights.Howeverthisisonlyoneaccountandbynomeansanuncontestedone.Itdeniesrightsnotonlytoanimalsbutalsotosomepeople―forinstancetoinfantsthementallyincapableandfuturegenerations.Inadditionitisunclearwhatforceacontractcanhaveforpeoplewhoneverconsentedtoit:howdoyoureplytosomebodywhosaysIdon’’tlikethiscontract Thepointisthis:withoutagreementontherightsofpeoplearguingabouttherightsofanimalsisfruitless.73.Itleadsthediscussiontoextremesattheoutset:itinvitesyoutothinkthatanimalsshouldbetreatedeitherwiththeconsiderationhumansextendtootherhumansorwithnoconsiderationatall.Thisisafalsechoice.Bettertostartwithanothermorefundamentalquestion:isthewaywetreatanimalsamoralissueatall Manydenyit.74.Arguingfromtheviewthathumansaredifferentfromanimalsineveryrelevantrespectextremistsofthiskindthinkthatanimalslieoutsidetheareaofmoralchoice.Anyregardforthesufferingofanimalsisseenatamistake―asentimentaldisplacementoffeelingthatshouldproperlybedirectedtootherhumans. Thisviewwhichholdsthattorturingamonkeyismorallyequivalenttochoppingwoodmayseembravelylogical.Infactitissimplyshallow:theconfusedcentreisrighttorejectit.Themostelementaryformofmoralreasoning―theethicalequivalentoflearningtocrawl―istoweighother’’sinterestsagainstone’’sown.Thisinturnrequiressympathyandimagination:withoutwhichthereisnocapacityformoralthought.Toseeananimalinpainisenoughformosttoengagesympathy.75.Whenthathappensitisnotamistake:itismankind’’sinstinctformoralreasoninginactionaninstinctthatshouldbeencouragedratherthanlaughedat.
HuntingforajoblatelastyearlawyerGantRedmonstumbledacrossCareerBuilderajobdatabaseontheInternet.Hesearcheditwithnosuccessbutwasattractedbythesite’’spersonalsearchagent.It’’saninteractivefeaturethatletsvisitorskeyinjobcriteriasuchaslocationtitleandsalarythenE-mailsthemwhenamatchingpositionispostedinthedatabase.RedmonchosethekeywordslegalintellectualpropertyandWashingtonD.C.Threeweekslaterhegothisfirstnotificationofanopening.IstruckgoldsaysRedmonwhoE-mailedhisresumetotheemployerandwonapositionasin-housecounselforacompany. Withthousandsofcareer-relatedsitesontheInternetfindingpromisingopeningscanbetime-consumingandinefficient.Searchagentsreducetheneedforrepeatedvisitstothedatabases.ButalthoughasearchagentworkedforRedmoncareerexpertsseedrawbacks.Narrowingyourcriteriaforexamplemayworkagainstyou:Everytimeyouansweraquestionyoueliminateapossibilitysaysoneexpert. Foranyjobsearchyoushouldstartwithanarrowconceptwhatyouthinkyouwanttodo--thenbroadenit.Noneoftheseprogramsdothatsaysanotherexpert.There’’snocareercounselingimplicitinallofthis.Insteadthebeststrategyistousetheagentasakindoftipservicetokeepabreastofjobsinaparticulardatabase;whenyougetE-mailconsideritaremindertocheckthedatabaseagain.Iwouldnotrelyonagentsforfindingeverythingthatisaddedtoadatabasethatmightinterestmesaystheauthorofajob-searchingguide. Somesitesdesigntheiragentstotemptjobhunterstoreturn.WhenCareerSite’’sagentsendsoutmessagestothosewhohavesignedupforitsserviceforexampleitincludesonlythreepotentialjobs--thoseitconsidersthebestmatches.Theremaybemorematchesinthedatabase;jobhunterswillhavetovisitthesiteagaintofindthem--andtheydo.OnthedayafterwesendourmessagesweseeasharpincreaseinourtrafficsaysSethPeetsvicepresidentofmarketingforCareerSite. Eventhosewhoaren’’thuntingforjobsmayfindsearchagentsworthwhile.Someusethemtokeepaclosewatchonthedemandfortheirlineofworkorgatherinformationoncompensationtoannthemselveswhennegotiatingforaraise.AlthoughhappilyemployedRedmonmaintainshisagentatCareerBuilder.Youalwayskeepyoureyesopenhesays.Workingwithapersonalsearchagentmeanshavinganothersetofeyeslookingoutforyou. Whichofthefollowingistrueaccordingtothetext
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
YouborrowedsomerecentissuesofU.S.businessmagazinefromyourprofessoramonthagobutdelayedreturningthem.Writealetterofapologytoyourprofessorstatingyourreasonsforthedelayandexpressingyourthanks. Writeyourletterinnolessthan100words.WriteitneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyourownnameattheendoftheletter.UseLiMinginstead.Youdonotneedtowritetheaddress.10points
1Interpretthefollowingpictures. 2Predictthetendencyoftobaccoconsumptionandgiveyourreasons.
Theworldisgoingthroughthebiggestwaveofmergersandacquisitionseverwitnessed.TheprocesssweepsfromhyperactiveAmericatoEuropeandreachestheemergingcountrieswithunsurpassedmight.Manyinthesecountriesarelookingatthisprocessandworrying:Won’’tthewaveofbusinessconcentrationturnintoanuncontrollableanti-competitiveforce There’’snoquestionthatthebigaregettingbiggerandmorepowerful.Multinationalcorporationsaccountedforlessthan20%ofinternationaltradein1982.Todaythefigureismorethan25%andgrowingrapidly.Internationalaffiliatesaccountforafast-growingsegmentofproductionineconomiesthatopenupandwelcomeforeigninvestment.InArgentinaforinstanceafterthereformsoftheearly1990smultinationalswentfrom43%toalmost70%oftheindustrialproductionofthe200largestfirms.Thisphenomenonhascreatedseriousconcernsovertheroleofsmallereconomicfirmsofnationalbusinessmenandovertheultimatestabilityoftheworldeconomy. IbelievethatthemostimportantforcesbehindthemassiveM&Awavearethesamethatunderlietheglobalizationprocess:fallingtransportationandcommunicationcostslowertradeandinvestmentbarriersandenlargedmarketsthatrequireenlargedoperationscapableofmeetingcustomers’’demands.Allthesearebeneficialnotdetrimentaltoconsumers.Asproductivitygrowstheworld’’swealthincreases. Examplesofbenefitsorcostsofthecurrentconcentrationwavearescanty.Yetitishardtoimaginethatthemergerofafewoilfirmstodaycouldre-createthesamethreatstocompetitionthatwerefearednearlyacenturyagointheU.S.whentheStandardOiltrustwasbrokenup.ThemergersoftelecomcompaniessuchasWorldComhardlyseembringhigherpricesforconsumersorareductioninthepaceoftechnicalprogress.Onthecontrarythepriceofcommunicationsiscomingdownfast.Incarstooconcentrationisincreasing--witnessDaimlerandChryslerRemaultandNissan--butitdoesnotappearthatconsumersarebeinghurt. Yetthefactremainsthatthemergermovementmustbewatched.AfewweeksagoAlanGreenspanwarnedagainstthemegamergersinthebankingindustry.Whoisgoingtosuperviseregulateandoperateaslenderoflastresortwiththegiganticbanksthatarebeingcreated.’’Won’’tmultinationalsshiftproductionfromoneplacetoanotherwhenanationgetstoostrictaboutinfringementstofaircompetition.’’AndshouldonecountrytakeuponitselftheroleofdefendingcompetitiononissuesthataffectmanyothernationsasintheU.S.vs.Microsoftcase7 AccordingtotheauthoroneofthedrivingforcesbehindM&Awaveis______.
WildBillDonovanwouldhavelovedtheIntemet.TheAmericanspymasterwhobuilttheOfficeofStrategicServicesinWorldWarⅡandlaterlaidtherootsfortheCIAwasfascinatedwithinformation.Donovanbelievedinusingwhatevertoolscametohandinthegreatgameofespionage--spyingasaprofession.ThesedaystheNetwhichhasalreadyre-madesucheverydaypastimesasbuyingbooksandsendingmailisreshapingDonovan’’svocationaswell. Thelatestrevolutionisn’’tsimplyamatterofgentlemenreadingothergentlemen’’se-mail.Thatkindofelectronicspyinghasbeengoingonfordecades.InthepastthreeorfouryearstheWorldWideWebhasgivenbirthtoawholeindustryofpoint-and-clickspying.Thespookscallitopen-sourceintelligenceandastheNetgrowsitisbecomingincreasinglyinfluential.In1995theCIAheldacontesttoseewhocouldcompilethemostdataaboutBumndi.ThewinnerbyalargemarginwasatinyVirginiacompanycalledOpenSourceSolutionswhoseclearadvantagewasitsmasteryoftheelectronicworld. AmongthefirmsmakingthebiggestsplashinthisnewworldisStraiffordInc.aprivateintelligence-analysisfirmbasedinAustinTexas.StraiffordmakesmoneybysellingtheresultsofspyingcoveringnationsfromChiletoRussiatocorporationslikeenergy-servicesfirmMcDermottInternational.Manyofitspredictionsareavailableonlineatwww.straitfordcom. StraiffordPresidentGeorgeFriedmansaysheseestheonlineworldasakindofmutuallyreinforcingtoolforbothinformationcollectionanddistributionaspymaster’’sdream.LastweekhisfirmwasbusyvacuumingupdatabitsfromthefarcomersoftheworldandpredictingacrisisinUkraine.Assoonasthatreportrunswe’’IIsuddenlyget500newIntemetsinge-upsfromUkrainesaysFriedmanaformerpoliticalscienceprofessor.Andwe’’11hearbackfromsomeofthem.Open-sourcespyingdoeshaveitsrisksofcoursesinceitcanbedifficulttotellgoodinformationfrombad.That’’swhereStraiffordearnsitskeep. Fridmanreliesonaleanstaffof20inAustin.Severalofhisstaffmembershavemilitary-intelligencebackgrounds.Heseesthefirm’’soutsiderstatusasthekeytoitssuccess.Straifford’’sbriefsdon’’tsoundliketheusualWashingtonback-and-forthingwherebyagenciesavoiddramaticdeclarationsonthechancetheymightbewrong.StraitfordsaysFriedmantakesprideinitsindependentvoice. Itcanbelearnedfromparagraph4that
Manytheoriesconcerningthecausesofjuveniledelinquencycrimescommittedbyyoungpeoplefocuseitherontheindividualoronsocietyasthemajorcontributinginfluence.Theories________ontheindividualsuggestthatchildrenengageincriminalbehavior________theywerenotsufficientlypenalizedforpreviousmisdeedsorthattheyhavelearnedcriminalbehaviorthrough________withothers.Theoriesfocusingontheroleofsocietysuggestthatchildrencommitcrimesin________totheirfailuretoriseabovetheirsocioeconomicstatus________asarejectionofmiddle-classvalues. Mosttheoriesofjuveniledelinquencyhavefocusedonchildrenfromdisadvantagedfamilies________thefactthatchildrenfromwealthyhomesalsocommitcrimes.Thelattermaycommitcrimes________lackofadequateparentalcontrol.Alltheorieshoweveraretentativeandare________tocriticism. Changesinthesocialstructuremayindirecfiy________juvenilecrimerates.Forexamplechangesintheeconomythat________tofewerjobopportunitiesforyouthandrisingunemployment________makegainfulemploymentincreasinglydifficulttoobtain.Theresultingdiscontentmayin________leadmoreyouthsintocriminalbehavior. Familieshavealso________changestheseyears.Morefamiliesconsistofone-parenthouseholdsortwoworkingparents;________childrenarelikelytohavelesssupervisionathome________wascommoninthetraditionalfamily________Thislackofparentalsupervisionisthoughttobeaninfluenceonjuvenilecrimerates.Other________causesofoffensiveactsincludefrustrationorfailureinschooltheincreased________ofdrugsandalcoholandthegrowing________ofchildabuseandchildneglect.Alltheseconditionstendtoincreasetheprobabilityofachildcommittingacriminalact________adirectcausalrelationshiphasnotyetbeenestablished.
HuntingforajoblatelastyearlawyerGantRedmonstumbledacrossCareerBuilderajobdatabaseontheInternet.Hesearcheditwithnosuccessbutwasattractedbythesite’’spersonalsearchagent.It’’saninteractivefeaturethatletsvisitorskeyinjobcriteriasuchaslocationtitleandsalarythenE-mailsthemwhenamatchingpositionispostedinthedatabase.RedmonchosethekeywordslegalintellectualpropertyandWashingtonD.C.Threeweekslaterhegothisfirstnotificationofanopening.IstruckgoldsaysRedmonwhoE-mailedhisresumetotheemployerandwonapositionasin-housecounselforacompany. Withthousandsofcareer-relatedsitesontheInternetfindingpromisingopeningscanbetime-consumingandinefficient.Searchagentsreducetheneedforrepeatedvisitstothedatabases.ButalthoughasearchagentworkedforRedmoncareerexpertsseedrawbacks.Narrowingyourcriteriaforexamplemayworkagainstyou:Everytimeyouansweraquestionyoueliminateapossibilitysaysoneexpert. Foranyjobsearchyoushouldstartwithanarrowconceptwhatyouthinkyouwanttodo--thenbroadenit.Noneoftheseprogramsdothatsaysanotherexpert.There’’snocareercounselingimplicitinallofthis.Insteadthebeststrategyistousetheagentasakindoftipservicetokeepabreastofjobsinaparticulardatabase;whenyougetE-mailconsideritaremindertocheckthedatabaseagain.Iwouldnotrelyonagentsforfindingeverythingthatisaddedtoadatabasethatmightinterestmesaystheauthorofajob-searchingguide. Somesitesdesigntheiragentstotemptjobhunterstoreturn.WhenCareerSite’’sagentsendsoutmessagestothosewhohavesignedupforitsserviceforexampleitincludesonlythreepotentialjobs--thoseitconsidersthebestmatches.Theremaybemorematchesinthedatabase;jobhunterswillhavetovisitthesiteagaintofindthem--andtheydo.OnthedayafterwesendourmessagesweseeasharpincreaseinourtrafficsaysSethPeetsvicepresidentofmarketingforCareerSite. Eventhosewhoaren’’thuntingforjobsmayfindsearchagentsworthwhile.Someusethemtokeepaclosewatchonthedemandfortheirlineofworkorgatherinformationoncompensationtoannthemselveswhennegotiatingforaraise.AlthoughhappilyemployedRedmonmaintainshisagentatCareerBuilder.Youalwayskeepyoureyesopenhesays.Workingwithapersonalsearchagentmeanshavinganothersetofeyeslookingoutforyou. TheexpressiontipserviceLine4Paragraph3mostprobablymeans
Newsreportsoftenfocusondisputesamongscientistsoverthevalidityofpreliminaryuntesteddatahypothesesandmodelswhichbydefinitionaretentative.Thisaspectofscience-1becauseithasnotbeenwidely2andaccepted-iscalledfrontierscience.Themedia3tofocusonfrontiersciencebecauseitsso-calledbreakthroughsmakegoodnewsstories.Justbecausesomethingisinthe4offrontierscience5doesnotmeanthatitisn’’tworthyofseriousconsideration;6suchmattersneedfurtherstudytodeterminetheir7. 8contrastconsensusscienceconsistsofdatamodelstheoriesandlawsthatarewidelyaccepted.Thisaspectofscienceisveryreliablebutis9considerednewsworthy.Thetroubleisthatthewordscienceisusedto10bothfrontierandconsensussciencewithout11Themediapreference12frontiersciencegivesthepublicthe13impressionthatfrontierscience14verycertainconclusionswhichmayormaynotbecorrect. However15somefrontierscienceislatershowntobeunreliablemembersofthepublicoftenfalsely16thatconsensusscienceisalsoquiteuncertain.Weneedtotakebothfrontierandconsensusscience17butrecognizetheirdifferences.Onewaytofindoutwhatscientistsgenerallyagree18istoseekoutreportsbyscientificbodiesthatattemptto19consensusin20areasofscienceandtechnology.
Newsreportsoftenfocusondisputesamongscientistsoverthevalidityofpreliminaryuntesteddatahypothesesandmodelswhichbydefinitionaretentative.Thisaspectofscience-1becauseithasnotbeenwidely2andaccepted-iscalledfrontierscience.Themedia3tofocusonfrontiersciencebecauseitsso-calledbreakthroughsmakegoodnewsstories.Justbecausesomethingisinthe4offrontierscience5doesnotmeanthatitisn’’tworthyofseriousconsideration;6suchmattersneedfurtherstudytodeterminetheir7. 8contrastconsensusscienceconsistsofdatamodelstheoriesandlawsthatarewidelyaccepted.Thisaspectofscienceisveryreliablebutis9considerednewsworthy.Thetroubleisthatthewordscienceisusedto10bothfrontierandconsensussciencewithout11Themediapreference12frontiersciencegivesthepublicthe13impressionthatfrontierscience14verycertainconclusionswhichmayormaynotbecorrect. However15somefrontierscienceislatershowntobeunreliablemembersofthepublicoftenfalsely16thatconsensusscienceisalsoquiteuncertain.Weneedtotakebothfrontierandconsensusscience17butrecognizetheirdifferences.Onewaytofindoutwhatscientistsgenerallyagree18istoseekoutreportsbyscientificbodiesthatattemptto19consensusin20areasofscienceandtechnology.
Theworldisgoingthroughthebiggestwaveofmergersandacquisitionseverwitnessed.TheprocesssweepsfromhyperactiveAmericatoEuropeandreachestheemergingcountrieswithunsurpassedmight.Manyinthesecountriesarelookingatthisprocessandworrying:Won’’tthewaveofbusinessconcentrationturnintoanuncontrollableanti-competitiveforce There’’snoquestionthatthebigaregettingbiggerandmorepowerful.Multinationalcorporationsaccountedforlessthan20%ofinternationaltradein1982.Todaythefigureismorethan25%andgrowingrapidly.Internationalaffiliatesaccountforafast-growingsegmentofproductionineconomiesthatopenupandwelcomeforeigninvestment.InArgentinaforinstanceafterthereformsoftheearly1990smultinationalswentfrom43%toalmost70%oftheindustrialproductionofthe200largestfirms.Thisphenomenonhascreatedseriousconcernsovertheroleofsmallereconomicfirmsofnationalbusinessmenandovertheultimatestabilityoftheworldeconomy. IbelievethatthemostimportantforcesbehindthemassiveM&Awavearethesamethatunderlietheglobalizationprocess:fallingtransportationandcommunicationcostslowertradeandinvestmentbarriersandenlargedmarketsthatrequireenlargedoperationscapableofmeetingcustomers’’demands.Allthesearebeneficialnotdetrimentaltoconsumers.Asproductivitygrowstheworld’’swealthincreases. Examplesofbenefitsorcostsofthecurrentconcentrationwavearescanty.Yetitishardtoimaginethatthemergerofafewoilfirmstodaycouldre-createthesamethreatstocompetitionthatwerefearednearlyacenturyagointheU.S.whentheStandardOiltrustwasbrokenup.ThemergersoftelecomcompaniessuchasWorldComhardlyseembringhigherpricesforconsumersorareductioninthepaceoftechnicalprogress.Onthecontrarythepriceofcommunicationsiscomingdownfast.Incarstooconcentrationisincreasing--witnessDaimlerandChryslerRemaultandNissan--butitdoesnotappearthatconsumersarebeinghurt. Yetthefactremainsthatthemergermovementmustbewatched.AfewweeksagoAlanGreenspanwarnedagainstthemegamergersinthebankingindustry.Whoisgoingtosuperviseregulateandoperateaslenderoflastresortwiththegiganticbanksthatarebeingcreated.’’Won’’tmultinationalsshiftproductionfromoneplacetoanotherwhenanationgetstoostrictaboutinfringementstofaircompetition.’’AndshouldonecountrytakeuponitselftheroleofdefendingcompetitiononissuesthataffectmanyothernationsasintheU.S.vs.Microsoftcase7 Towardthenewbusinesswavethewriter’’sattitudecanbesaidtobe______.
Newsreportsoftenfocusondisputesamongscientistsoverthevalidityofpreliminaryuntesteddatahypothesesandmodelswhichbydefinitionaretentative.Thisaspectofscience-1becauseithasnotbeenwidely2andaccepted-iscalledfrontierscience.Themedia3tofocusonfrontiersciencebecauseitsso-calledbreakthroughsmakegoodnewsstories.Justbecausesomethingisinthe4offrontierscience5doesnotmeanthatitisn’’tworthyofseriousconsideration;6suchmattersneedfurtherstudytodeterminetheir7. 8contrastconsensusscienceconsistsofdatamodelstheoriesandlawsthatarewidelyaccepted.Thisaspectofscienceisveryreliablebutis9considerednewsworthy.Thetroubleisthatthewordscienceisusedto10bothfrontierandconsensussciencewithout11Themediapreference12frontiersciencegivesthepublicthe13impressionthatfrontierscience14verycertainconclusionswhichmayormaynotbecorrect. However15somefrontierscienceislatershowntobeunreliablemembersofthepublicoftenfalsely16thatconsensusscienceisalsoquiteuncertain.Weneedtotakebothfrontierandconsensusscience17butrecognizetheirdifferences.Onewaytofindoutwhatscientistsgenerallyagree18istoseekoutreportsbyscientificbodiesthatattemptto19consensusin20areasofscienceandtechnology.
Newsreportsoftenfocusondisputesamongscientistsoverthevalidityofpreliminaryuntesteddatahypothesesandmodelswhichbydefinitionaretentative.Thisaspectofscience-1becauseithasnotbeenwidely2andaccepted-iscalledfrontierscience.Themedia3tofocusonfrontiersciencebecauseitsso-calledbreakthroughsmakegoodnewsstories.Justbecausesomethingisinthe4offrontierscience5doesnotmeanthatitisn’’tworthyofseriousconsideration;6suchmattersneedfurtherstudytodeterminetheir7. 8contrastconsensusscienceconsistsofdatamodelstheoriesandlawsthatarewidelyaccepted.Thisaspectofscienceisveryreliablebutis9considerednewsworthy.Thetroubleisthatthewordscienceisusedto10bothfrontierandconsensussciencewithout11Themediapreference12frontiersciencegivesthepublicthe13impressionthatfrontierscience14verycertainconclusionswhichmayormaynotbecorrect. However15somefrontierscienceislatershowntobeunreliablemembersofthepublicoftenfalsely16thatconsensusscienceisalsoquiteuncertain.Weneedtotakebothfrontierandconsensusscience17butrecognizetheirdifferences.Onewaytofindoutwhatscientistsgenerallyagree18istoseekoutreportsbyscientificbodiesthatattemptto19consensusin20areasofscienceandtechnology.
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