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Thatexperiencesinfluencesubsequentbehaviourisevidenceofanobviousbutneverthelessremarkableactivitycalledremembering.Learningcouldnotoccurwithoutthefunctionpopularlynamedmemory.Constantpracticehassuchaneffectonmemoryastoleadtoskilfulperformanceonthepianotorecitationofapoemandeventoreadingandunderstandingthesewords.So-calledintelligentbehaviourdemandsmemoryrememberingbeingaprimaryrequirementforreasoning.Theabilitytosolveanyproblemoreventorecognizethataproblemexistsdependsonmemory.Typicallythedecisiontocrossastreetisbasedonrememberingmanyearlierexperiences. Practiceorreviewtendstobuildandmaintainmemoryforataskorforanylearnedmaterial.Overaperiodofnopracticewhathasbeenlearnedtendstobeforgotten;andtheadaptiveconsequencesmaynotseemobvious.Yetdramaticinstancesofsuddenforgettingcanbeseentobeadaptive.Inthissensetheabilitytoforgetcanbeinterpretedtohavesurvivedthroughaprocessofnaturalselectioninanimals.Indeedwhenone’’smemoryofanemotionallypainfulexperienceleadstoseriousanxietyforgettingmayproducerelief.Neverthelessanevolutionaryinterpretationmightmakeitdifficulttounderstandhowthecommonlygradualprocessofforgettingsurvivednaturalselection. Inthinkingabouttheevolutionofmemorytogetherwithallitspossibleaspectsitishelpfultoconsiderwhatwouldhappenifmemoriesfailedtofade.Forgettingclearlyaidsorientationintimesinceoldmemoriesweakenandthenewtendtostandoutprovidingcluesforinferringduration.Withoutforgettingadaptiveabilitywouldsuffer;forexamplelearnedbehaviourthatmighthavebeencorrectadecadeagomaynolongerbe.Casesarerecordedofpeoplewhobyordinarystandardsforgotsolittlethattheireverydayactivitieswerefullofconfusion.Thusforgettingseemstoservethesurvivaloftheindividualandthespecies. Anotherlineofthoughtassumesamemorystoragesystemoflimitedcapacitythatprovidesadaptiveflexibilityspecificallythroughforgetting.Inthisviewcontinualadjustmentsaremadebetweenlearningormemorystorageinputandforgettingoutput.Indeedthereisevidencethattherateatwhichindividualsforgetisdirectlyrelatedtohowmuchtheyhavelearned.Suchdataoffergrosssupportofcontemporarymodelsofmemorythatassumeaninput-outputbalance. Fromthelastparagraphweknowthat________________.
YouareagraduateofHistory.Writealettertooneofyourcollegeprofessortorequestarecommendationlettertosupportyourapplicationforapositionwithapublishingcompany.Yourlettershouldcover: 1remindinghimofyouandyourperformance 2thingsyouhopetobereflectedinhisletterand 3thewayofmailingtheletter. Youshouldwriteabout100wordsonANSWERSHEET2.Donotsignyournameattheendoftheletter.UseLiMinginstead.Youdonotneedtowritetheaddress.10points
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Theywerebyfarthelargestandmostdistantobjectsthatscientistshadeverdetected:astripofenormouscosmiccloudsome15billionlight-yearsfromearth.71.Butevenmoreimportantitwasthefarthestthatscientistshadbeenabletolookintothepastforwhattheywereseeingwerethepatternsandstructuresthatexisted15billionyearsago.Thatwasjustaboutthemomentthattheuniversewasborn.Whattheresearchersfoundwasatoncebothamazingandexpected:theUSNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration’’sCosmicBackgroundExplorersatellite―Cobe―haddiscoveredlandmarkevidencethattheuniversedidinfactbeginwiththeprimevalexplosionthathasbecomeknownastheBigBangthetheorythattheuniverseoriginatedinanexplosionfromasinglemassofenergy. 72.TheexistenceofthegiantcloudswasvirtuallyrequiredfortheBigBangfirstputforwardinthe1920stomaintainitsreignasthedominantexplanationofthecosmos.Accordingtothetheorytheuniverseburstintobeingasasubmicroscopicunimaginablydenseknotofpureenergythatflewoutwardinalldirectionsemittingradiationasitwentcondensingintoparticlesandthenintoatomsofgas.Overbillionsofyearsthegaswascompressedbygravityintogalaxiesstarsplantsandeventuallyevenhumans. Cobeisdesignedtoseejustthebiggeststructuresbutastronomerswouldliketoseemuchsmallerhotspotsaswelltheseedsoflocalobjectslikeclustersandsuperclustersofgalaxies.Theyshouldn’’thavelongtowait.73.Astrophysicistsworkingwithground-baseddetectorsattheSouthPoleandballoon-borneinstrumentsareclosinginonsuchstructuresandmayreporttheirfindingssoon. 74.IfthesmallhotspotslookasexpectedthatwillbeatriumphforyetanotherscientificideaarefinementoftheBigBangcalledtheinflationaryuniversetheory.Inflationsaysthatvery’’earlyontheuniverseexpandedinsizebymorethanatrillionfoldinmuchlessthanasecondpropelledbyasortofantigravity. 75.Oddthoughitsoundscosmicinflationisascientificallyplausibleconsequenceofsomerespectedideasinelementary-particlephysicsandmanyastrophysicistshavebeenconvincedforthebetterpartofadecadethatitistrue.
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought. Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Toavoidthevariousfoolishopinionstowhichmankindisliablenosuperhumangeniusisrequired.Afewsimpleruleswillkeepyounotfromallerrorsbutfromsillyerrors. Ifthematterisonethatcanbesettledbyobservationmaketheobservationyourself.AristotlecouldhaveavoidedthemistakeofthinkingthatwomenhavefewerteeththanmenbythesimpledeviceofaskingMrs.Aristotletokeephermouthopenwhilehecounted.Hedidnotdosobecausehethoughtheknew.Thinkingthatyouknowwheninfactyoudon’’tisafatalmistaketowhichweareallliable. Manymattershoweverarelesseasilybroughttothetestofexperience.Iflikemostofmankindyouhavestrongconvictionsonmanysuchmatterstherearewaysinwhichyoucanmakeyourselfawareofyourownprejudice.Ifanopinioncontrarytoyourownmakesyouangrythatisasignthatyousubconsciouslyareawareofhavingnogoodreasonforthinkingasyoudo.IfsomeonemaintainsthattwoandtwoarefiveorthatIcelandisontheequatoryoufeelpityratherthanangerunlessyouknowsolittleofarithmeticorgeographythathisopinionshakesyourowncontraryconviction.Themostsavagecontroversiesarethoseaboutmattersastowhichthereisnogoodevidenceeitherway.Sowheneveryoufindyourselfgettingangryaboutadifferenceofopinionbeonyourguard;youwillprobablyfindonexaminationthatyourbeliefisgoingbeyondwhattheevidencejustifies. Forthosewhohaveenoughpsychologicalimaginationitisagoodplantoimagineanargumentwithapersonhavingadifferentopinion.Thishasoneadvantageandonlyoneascomparedwithactualconversationwithopponents;thisoneadvantageisthatthemethodisnotsubjecttothesamelimitationsoftimeandspace.MahatmaGandhi圣雄甘地considereditunfortunatetohaverailwaysandsteamboatsandmachinery;hewouldhavelikedtoundothewholeoftheindustrialrevolution.YoumayneverhaveanopportunityofactuallymeetinganyonewhoholdsthisopinionbecauseinWesterncountriesmostpeopletaketheadvantageofmoderntechnologyforgranted.ButifyouwanttomakesurethatyouarerightinagreeingwiththeprevailingopinionyouwillfinditagoodplantotesttheargumentsthatoccurtoyoubyconsideringwhatGandhimighthavesaidinrefutationofthem.Ihavesometimesbeenledactuallytochangemymindasaresultofthiskindofimaginarydialogue.FurthermoreIhavefrequentlyfoundmyselfgrowingmoreagreeablethroughrealizingthepossiblereasonablenessofahypotheticalopponent. Accordingtothetextitistruethat
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Welearnfromthetextthattheburningofpetrol
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
WhenitcomestotheslowingeconomyEllenSperoisn’’tbitinghernailsjustyet.Butthe47-year-oldmanicuristisn’’tcuttingfilingorpolishingasmanynailsasshe’’dliketoeither.Mostofherclientsspend＄12to＄50weeklybutlastmonthtwolongtimecustomerssuddenlystoppedshowingup.Speroblamesthesofteningeconomy.I’’magoodeconomicindicatorshesays.Iprovideaservicethatpeoplecandowithoutwhenthey’’reconcernedaboutsavingsomedollars.SoSperoisdownscalingshoppingatmiddle-browDillard’’sdepartmentstorenearhersuburbanClevelandhomeinsteadofNeimanMarcus.Idon’’tknowifotherclientsaregoingtoabandonmetooshesays. EvenbeforeAlanGreenspan’’sadmissionthatAmerica’’sred-hoteconomyiscoolinglotsofworkingfolkshadalreadyseensignsoftheslowdownthemselves.FromcardealershipstoGapoutletssaleshavebeenlaggingformonthsasshopperstempertheirspending.Forretailerswholastyeartookin24percentoftheirrevenuebetweenThanksgivingandChristmasthecautiousapproachiscomingatacrucialtime.Alreadyexpertssayholidaysalesareoff7percentfromlastyear’’space.Butdon’’tsoundanyalarmsjustyet.Consumersseemonlymildlyconcernednotpanickedandmanysaytheyremainoptimisticabouttheeconomy’’slong-termprospectsevenastheydosomemodestbelt-tightening. Consumerssaythey’’renotindespairbecausedespitethedreadfulheadlinestheirownfortunesstillfeelprettygood.Homepricesareholdingsteadyinmostregions.InManhattanthere’’sanewgoldrushhappeninginthe＄4millionto＄10millionrangepredominantlyfedbyWallStreetbonusessaysbrokerBarbaraCorcoran.InSanFranciscopricesarestillrisingevenasfrenziedoverbiddingquiets.Insteadof20to30offersnowmaybeyouonlygettwoorthreesaysJohnTealdiaBayAreareal-estatebroker.Andmostfolksstillfeelprettycomfortableabouttheirabilitytofindandkeepajob. Manyfolksseesilverliningstothisslowdown.Potentialhomebuyerswouldcheerforlowerinterestrates.Employerswouldn’’tmindalittlefewerbubblesinthejobmarket.Manyconsumersseemtohavebeeninfluencedbystock-marketswingswhichinvestorsnowviewasanecessaryingredienttoasustainedboom.Dinersmightseeanupsidetoo.GettingatableatManhattan’’shotnewAlainDucasserestaurantusedtobeimpossible.Notanymore.ForthatGreenspan&Co.maystillbeworthtoasting. Whycanmanypeopleseesilverliningstotheeconomicslowdown
Toavoidthevariousfoolishopinionstowhichmankindisliablenosuperhumangeniusisrequired.Afewsimpleruleswillkeepyounotfromallerrorsbutfromsillyerrors. Ifthematterisonethatcanbesettledbyobservationmaketheobservationyourself.AristotlecouldhaveavoidedthemistakeofthinkingthatwomenhavefewerteeththanmenbythesimpledeviceofaskingMrs.Aristotletokeephermouthopenwhilehecounted.Hedidnotdosobecausehethoughtheknew.Thinkingthatyouknowwheninfactyoudon’’tisafatalmistaketowhichweareallliable. Manymattershoweverarelesseasilybroughttothetestofexperience.Iflikemostofmankindyouhavestrongconvictionsonmanysuchmatterstherearewaysinwhichyoucanmakeyourselfawareofyourownprejudice.Ifanopinioncontrarytoyourownmakesyouangrythatisasignthatyousubconsciouslyareawareofhavingnogoodreasonforthinkingasyoudo.IfsomeonemaintainsthattwoandtwoarefiveorthatIcelandisontheequatoryoufeelpityratherthanangerunlessyouknowsolittleofarithmeticorgeographythathisopinionshakesyourowncontraryconviction.Themostsavagecontroversiesarethoseaboutmattersastowhichthereisnogoodevidenceeitherway.Sowheneveryoufindyourselfgettingangryaboutadifferenceofopinionbeonyourguard;youwillprobablyfindonexaminationthatyourbeliefisgoingbeyondwhattheevidencejustifies. Forthosewhohaveenoughpsychologicalimaginationitisagoodplantoimagineanargumentwithapersonhavingadifferentopinion.Thishasoneadvantageandonlyoneascomparedwithactualconversationwithopponents;thisoneadvantageisthatthemethodisnotsubjecttothesamelimitationsoftimeandspace.MahatmaGandhi圣雄甘地considereditunfortunatetohaverailwaysandsteamboatsandmachinery;hewouldhavelikedtoundothewholeoftheindustrialrevolution.YoumayneverhaveanopportunityofactuallymeetinganyonewhoholdsthisopinionbecauseinWesterncountriesmostpeopletaketheadvantageofmoderntechnologyforgranted.ButifyouwanttomakesurethatyouarerightinagreeingwiththeprevailingopinionyouwillfinditagoodplantotesttheargumentsthatoccurtoyoubyconsideringwhatGandhimighthavesaidinrefutationofthem.Ihavesometimesbeenledactuallytochangemymindasaresultofthiskindofimaginarydialogue.FurthermoreIhavefrequentlyfoundmyselfgrowingmoreagreeablethroughrealizingthepossiblereasonablenessofahypotheticalopponent. TheexampleofAristotleisusedtoindicatethat
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 Scientistscouldmoreaccuratelypredicttheextentanddirectionofgreenhouseeffectiftheywereto
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
试论中国金融业实行分业管理与参与国际金融业竞争的关系
AradiativeforcingisanychangeimposedontheEarththataffecttheplanetaryenergybalance.Radiativeforcingsincludechangesingreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxideandozoneaerosolsintheatmospheresolarirradianceandsurfacereflectivity.Aforcingmayresultfromeitheranaturalorananthropogeniccauseorfrombothasinthecaseofatmosphericaerosolconcentrationswhichcanbealteredeitherbyvolcanicactionortheburningoffossilfuels.Radiativeforcingsaretypicallyspecifiedforthepurposeoftheoreticalglobalclimatesimulations.Incontrastradiativefeedbacksareenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechangesandarecalculatedfromscientificobservation.Radiativefeedbacksincludechangesinsuchphenomenaascloudsatmosphericwatervaporsea-icecoverandsnowcover. Theinterplaybetweenforcingsandfeedbackscanbequitecomplex.Forexampleanincreaseintheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervaporincreasessolarirradiancetherebywarmingtheatmosphereandinturnincreasingevaporationandtheconcentrationofatmosphericwatervapor.Arelatedexampleofthiscomplexinterplayalsoshowstheuncertaintyoffutureclimaticchangesassociatedwithforcingsandfeedbacks.ScientistsareunsurehowthereductionofozonewillultimatelyaffectcloudsandinturntheEarthtemperature.Cloudstrapoutgoingcoolingradiationtherebyprovidingawarminginfluence.Howevertheyalsoreflectincomingsolarradiationandthusprovideacoolinginfluence.CurrentsmeasurementsindicatethattheneteffectofcloudsistocooltheEarth.Howeverscientistsdonotknowhowthebalancemightshiftinthefutureascloudformationanddispersionareaffectedbyozonereduction. Contributingtothisuncertaintyisthecomplexityofthemechanismsatworkintheprocessofozonereduction.Theamountofradiationreachingtheearth’’ssurfaceandtheamountofreradiatedradiationthatistrappedbythegreenhouseeffectinfluencetheEarth’’stemperatureinoppositedirections.Bothmechanismsareaffectedbytheverticaldistributionofozone.Alsotherelativeimportanceofthesetwocompetingmechanismsdependsonthealtitudeatwhichozonechangesoccur.InarecentNASA-sponsoredaircraftstudyoftheAntarcticozoneholechlorinemonoxidewasmeasuredatvaryingaltitudes.Themeasurementssuggestthatchlorineplaysagreaterroleandoxidesofnitrogenalesserrolethanpreviouslythoughtinthedestructionofozoneintheloweratmosphere.Thestudyconcludedthatsimultaneoushigh-resolutionmeasurementsatmanydifferentaltitudesonthescaleof0.1kilometerinverticalextentarenecessarytodiagnosetheoperativemechanisms.Thesefindingshavecalledintoquestionconventionalexplanationsforozonereductionwhichfailtoadequatelyaccountforthenewevidence.NASA=NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration国家航空航天局 TheNASA-sponsoredstudyoftheozonehole
1describethedrawing 2interpretitsmeaningand 3supportyourviewwithexamples. Youshouldwriteabout200wordsneatlyonANSWERSHEET2.20points
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
WhenitcomestotheslowingeconomyEllenSperoisn’’tbitinghernailsjustyet.Butthe47-year-oldmanicuristisn’’tcuttingfilingorpolishingasmanynailsasshe’’dliketoeither.Mostofherclientsspend＄12to＄50weeklybutlastmonthtwolongtimecustomerssuddenlystoppedshowingup.Speroblamesthesofteningeconomy.I’’magoodeconomicindicatorshesays.Iprovideaservicethatpeoplecandowithoutwhenthey’’reconcernedaboutsavingsomedollars.SoSperoisdownscalingshoppingatmiddle-browDillard’’sdepartmentstorenearhersuburbanClevelandhomeinsteadofNeimanMarcus.Idon’’tknowifotherclientsaregoingtoabandonmetooshesays. EvenbeforeAlanGreenspan’’sadmissionthatAmerica’’sred-hoteconomyiscoolinglotsofworkingfolkshadalreadyseensignsoftheslowdownthemselves.FromcardealershipstoGapoutletssaleshavebeenlaggingformonthsasshopperstempertheirspending.Forretailerswholastyeartookin24percentoftheirrevenuebetweenThanksgivingandChristmasthecautiousapproachiscomingatacrucialtime.Alreadyexpertssayholidaysalesareoff7percentfromlastyear’’space.Butdon’’tsoundanyalarmsjustyet.Consumersseemonlymildlyconcernednotpanickedandmanysaytheyremainoptimisticabouttheeconomy’’slong-termprospectsevenastheydosomemodestbelt-tightening. Consumerssaythey’’renotindespairbecausedespitethedreadfulheadlinestheirownfortunesstillfeelprettygood.Homepricesareholdingsteadyinmostregions.InManhattanthere’’sanewgoldrushhappeninginthe＄4millionto＄10millionrangepredominantlyfedbyWallStreetbonusessaysbrokerBarbaraCorcoran.InSanFranciscopricesarestillrisingevenasfrenziedoverbiddingquiets.Insteadof20to30offersnowmaybeyouonlygettwoorthreesaysJohnTealdiaBayAreareal-estatebroker.Andmostfolksstillfeelprettycomfortableabouttheirabilitytofindandkeepajob. Manyfolksseesilverliningstothisslowdown.Potentialhomebuyerswouldcheerforlowerinterestrates.Employerswouldn’’tmindalittlefewerbubblesinthejobmarket.Manyconsumersseemtohavebeeninfluencedbystock-marketswingswhichinvestorsnowviewasanecessaryingredienttoasustainedboom.Dinersmightseeanupsidetoo.GettingatableatManhattan’’shotnewAlainDucasserestaurantusedtobeimpossible.Notanymore.ForthatGreenspan&Co.maystillbeworthtoasting. Howdothepublicfeelaboutthecurrenteconomicsituation
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
Thatexperiencesinfluencesubsequentbehaviourisevidenceofanobviousbutneverthelessremarkableactivitycalledremembering.Learningcouldnotoccurwithoutthefunctionpopularlynamedmemory.Constantpracticehassuchaneffectonmemoryastoleadtoskilfulperformanceonthepianotorecitationofapoemandeventoreadingandunderstandingthesewords.So-calledintelligentbehaviourdemandsmemoryrememberingbeingaprimaryrequirementforreasoning.Theabilitytosolveanyproblemoreventorecognizethataproblemexistsdependsonmemory.Typicallythedecisiontocrossastreetisbasedonrememberingmanyearlierexperiences. Practiceorreviewtendstobuildandmaintainmemoryforataskorforanylearnedmaterial.Overaperiodofnopracticewhathasbeenlearnedtendstobeforgotten;andtheadaptiveconsequencesmaynotseemobvious.Yetdramaticinstancesofsuddenforgettingcanbeseentobeadaptive.Inthissensetheabilitytoforgetcanbeinterpretedtohavesurvivedthroughaprocessofnaturalselectioninanimals.Indeedwhenone’’smemoryofanemotionallypainfulexperienceleadstoseriousanxietyforgettingmayproducerelief.Neverthelessanevolutionaryinterpretationmightmakeitdifficulttounderstandhowthecommonlygradualprocessofforgettingsurvivednaturalselection. Inthinkingabouttheevolutionofmemorytogetherwithallitspossibleaspectsitishelpfultoconsiderwhatwouldhappenifmemoriesfailedtofade.Forgettingclearlyaidsorientationintimesinceoldmemoriesweakenandthenewtendtostandoutprovidingcluesforinferringduration.Withoutforgettingadaptiveabilitywouldsuffer;forexamplelearnedbehaviourthatmighthavebeencorrectadecadeagomaynolongerbe.Casesarerecordedofpeoplewhobyordinarystandardsforgotsolittlethattheireverydayactivitieswerefullofconfusion.Thusforgettingseemstoservethesurvivaloftheindividualandthespecies. Anotherlineofthoughtassumesamemorystoragesystemoflimitedcapacitythatprovidesadaptiveflexibilityspecificallythroughforgetting.Inthisviewcontinualadjustmentsaremadebetweenlearningormemorystorageinputandforgettingoutput.Indeedthereisevidencethattherateatwhichindividualsforgetisdirectlyrelatedtohowmuchtheyhavelearned.Suchdataoffergrosssupportofcontemporarymodelsofmemorythatassumeaninput-outputbalance. Fromtheevolutionarypointofview________________.
Thereisnothingillogicalorsyntheticaboutthehumilitymodestyofgreatbookmenincallingattentiontothelimitationsofthebook.Nobookcan1ustoknoweverythingthatistobeknownorfeeleverythingthatistobefelt.Abookispartoflifenotasubstitute2it.Itisnotafit3forworshiporenshrinement.Itlosesitscharmandmuchofitsvaluewhenaccepted4Noonewouldhavebeenmore5thanAristotleifhecouldhaveknownoftheexcessiveand6venerationthatwouldbegiventohisideasincenturiesto7.Whenhisworksbecamethe8wordsofadvanceknowledge9knowledgebecameneitheradvancednorvital. Theparticularoccasionfortheseremarksisthatthereare10hereandtherethatsomeofusinthebookworldmaybe11ourselvestooseriously.Intheefforttoincreasebookreadingsome12thingsarebeingsaidaboutbooks.Itismadeto13thatnothingishappeningnowthathasnothappenedbeforeandthattheonlytrueapproachtounderstandingis14books.Wedoneitherservicenorjusticetobooksby15uponthemsuchomnipotenceandomniscience.Manyoftheanswersweneedtodayarenotnecessarilytobefoundbetween16Thereareelementsofnewnessinthepresent17ofmanthatwillnotreadilybe18ofbyrequiredreadingorreadyreference.Booksarenotsliderulesorblueprintsfor19automaticanswers.Whatisneededisamightyblendofthewisdomoftheages20freshrazor-edgedanalyticalthought.
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